Looking Ahead To the 2025 Season - Part 1 - Roster Management - Who Is Gone, Who Might Be Gone and Why

 OK, so the Guardians' season is over.  Some people will want to lament or even be angry over the loss to the Yankees.

I get it, although I think looking backward doesn't help you find your path going forward.  

So, in this first post, let's look at our current roster and see who should/will/might be gone next year.  It is a good time for this as the November roster freeze is coming, and we have lots of interesting prospects who need to be protected this winter.

WHO SHOULD BE GONE...AND WHY

Triston McKenzie 

This, to me, is the easiest of decisions.  McKenzie was an up-and-coming pitching prospect who looked like a sure-fire #3 starter with significant upside over that.   He then had a variety of injuries, leading to the penultimate elbow injury in 2023.  He chose not to have surgery and just rehabilitate the elbow, leading to a disastrous 2024 where he was one of the absolute worst starting pitchers in the majors and wasn't much better at AAA Columbus.  Triston has chosen his path (non-surgical/rehab) and it has turned out badly for him.   At this point, even if he chooses surgery, he is not worth keeping, even at a relatively small arbitration cost.  I would try like heck to trade him and get what you can for him and, if that doesn't work, non-tender him.  Until he has that surgery, I don't believe he will ever come close to reaching his potential or even be a viable #5 starter.  Alternatively, they could keep him if they think they could convert him to a leverage reliever.

Nick Sandlin

Look, Sandlin is not a bad pitcher.  He is a solid middle man.  But we have relief prospects on the way (or here, in Walters and Sabrowski) who can step in and offer more long-term upside and versatility than Sandlin.  

Don't get me wrong.  I think Sandlin could bring a solid return in a trade, maybe in a salary eat like the Barlow - De Los Santos trade last year. But on this team you can only have 1-2 guys in relief who are not strikeout pitchers and those spots are already taken by Eli Morgan and Pedro Avila.

Logan Allen

I love what Allen has done.  He has busted his rear for Cleveland but his performance in Columbus after his demotion was very disappointing.  It looks more and more like he is a flash in the pan or, at best, a #5 starter.  Unless you send him to the bullpen and get his stuff to play up there, the Guardians have Webb, Nikhazy, Messick, Peterson, Mace, Davenport and Denholm who could, at various points in 2025, become a 5th starter as good or better (due to less familiarity by our opponents) than Allen.  Not that Logan Allen is a bad baseball player.  It's just he's not a good one.  That being said, he can be an innings eater SP on a rebuilding team and will be cheap this year so he has trade value.  So I think he is tendered a contract if he makes it to November but my hope is that they trade him before the roster freeze.

Connor Gillaspie

This is an easy one.  He is currently just a roster placeholder and I suspect he will be a November roster freezed casualty.  It is very possible that he clears waivers and we outright him to Columbus

Peter Strzelecki

Like Gillaspie, he is just a roster placeholder for November.  Unlike Gillaspie, I doubt Strzelecki clears waivers but, if he does and we can outright him, I would like to keep him on the Columbus roster if he survives the Rule 5.

Will Brennan

I just don't see him improving at all. When he came back from Columbus he was a slap hitter and may have fooled some that he was becoming a productive player.  But I don't see it.  His lack of progress really makes him a backup player but without the mentality of a veteran backup.  He either goes in a trade or is DFA'd before the November freeze.

Myles Straw

I think they will continue to actively try to trade Myles Straw.  When I say 'continue', I think it is pretty obvious that they have tried to trade him and I see him being traded as part of a larger deal where they include money to cover most of his 2025 salary.  For a rebuilding team like the White Sox, getting Straw essentially for free might be enticing although the Guardians will want to allow that as part of a larger deal where they get what they want.

THOSE WHO MIGHT BE GONE...AND WHY...AND FOR WHO

Josh Naylor

The math has been told over and over again this year.

• Naylor will make over $12 MM a year in his last year of arbitration
• The rumors are that the Guardians aren't willing to make him a fat, long-term offer and that Naylor isn't willing to take a team discount just to stay in Cleveland (like Ramirez did)
• Kyle Manzardo is ready to step in at 1B and Jhonkensy Noel and David Fry can also play there with others (maybe Juan Brito and, down the road, CJ Kayfus) in the wings.

On the other side of that is Josh Naylor's performance

• He had 30+ HRs and 100+ RBI and was the best available protection for Ramirez in the batting order in 2024. 
• He played almost every day and, truth be told, would have played every day if allowed to
• He accomplished all that while being what I will call EXCESSIVELY hurt this year, causing him to not be able to keep up with his conditioning and put on A LOT of weight.  No doubt he would have performed better in the post-season had he not had all those physical challenges.

Plus, his brother is the Guardians' starting catcher.  

If we trade him it is because we can cash in for him.   Unfortunately, some of the things I have heard are:

• Advanced metrics are not as favorable as his raw HR and RBI numbers
• People think we will have to throw in a prospect to be able to trade him for a mid-rotation SP with some control. In fact, the deals I have seen proposed look more like deadline deals if we are our of the race in July 2025.
• David Fry's elbow may make it so he can only DH in 2025 if he has to have surgery (similar to Ohtani in 2024)

All of these are confusing to me but one thing is clear: NAYLOR IS WORTH MORE TO THE GUARDIANS THAN A MID-ROTATION STARTING PITCHER.

Although the Guardians don't hold onto guys like Naylor who enter their walk year unsigned, and I don't think they want to sign him to an extension until they see how he comes out of his off-season conditioning, I say that you keep Naylor UNLESS you get overwhelmed with an offer that brings you a top of rotation SP or a proven power-hitting OFer with a few years of control.  

It's unfortunate that our FO can't swing a good deal when they have a lot to offer, but that is our reality.  To way that we are going to trade Josh Naylor just because we can is not enough.  This is an arithmetic equation.  What comes in has to be > or = to what goes out or our team is weaker next year, overall.  You can disagree but that is my take.

James Karinchak

I think his personality quirks, his ability to fall apart at any given moment and the possibility that his previous success was due to, how can I say this, some manipulation of the baseball that is no longer allowed, makes him vulnerable.  Still, however, I hope they don't just dump him in a DFA move or do another horrible Scott Barlow-like trade with him.  But it is possible, given all the peripheral issues with Karinchak, that they just do an addition by subtraction move with him.  That would be throwing the baby out with the bathwater, especially given the overuse of our bullpen in 2024.  So, I hope we just keep him and see what he brings next spring.  Truthfully, except for Aleman, we have no one in the minors with the upside of Karinchak if we choose to start him at Columbus next year.

Gabriel Arias

Don't be surprised to see him as part of a large deal this fall/winter.  Aside from that I think we go into ST with him next year.  DFAing him seems too easy and only a way to show our disappointment in his development.  Again, addition by subtraction here seems unwarranted.  Now, if he is the same, old Arias next spring, he gets DFA'd after ST.

OVERALL SUMMARY OF ROSTER MANAGEMENT

The above players represent the ones who I think the Guardians will likely dangle in trades or simply non-tender or DFA.  Obviously, anyone on the roster with the exception of Bibee, Williams, Lively, Clase, Ramirez, Kwan, Gimenz and Smith is a possible tradeable asset from the less likely Gaddis, Herrin, Walters, Sabrowski, Manzardo, Fry, Espino, Avila, Cantillo, Rocchio and Bo Naylor to the more tradeable assets like Freeman, Noel, JRod, Valera, Schneeman, Brito, Morgan or any Rule 5-eligible guy who needs to be added this winter.  I do think they will focus on trading major leaguers or ML ready guys who have to be rostered this winter.  I don't think you will see any of the lower level minor leaguers like Genao traded as most teams want ML-ready players and the Guardians have a whole slew of them on the 40-man and guys who will need to be added to the 40-man this winter who are close to, if not ML ready by ST 2025.  I also don't think you will see DeLauter traded as teams would be trying to buy low on him and the Guardians would not be able to get good value for him, at least what I believe is his value.

Time will tell.  I won't hold my breath that there is a big trade but my next post will list a couple that I think are doable.