2024 Rule 5 Draft - Part 4 - Recent History And What It May Teach Us.

 Every year is different.  Management changes, Rule 5 order changes, 40-man roster spots vary, team needs change, the number of viable Rule 5-eligible prospects changes as does the availability of different positions.

Each year is so different it is hard to make generalizations...but that never stopped me from looking for trends that then fuel predictions.  

Trends over the years have included:

• Normally, highly ranked prospects are protected by teams.  This is true even when a prospect is years away from the majors in their first rule 5 year (e.g., Brito, Noel, Valera, Martinez, Espino, etc.). In the rare cases where a highly-ranked prospect is left unprotected, it is due to poor projectability to be a major leaguer the next year.  
• Pitchers who can be used as relief pitchers but have starter potential and utility players with offensive skills are the most often drafted. An occasional power hitting corner infielder/outfielder is selected since they can be utilized as a DH.
• Given the 2 trends above, and the differences in team landscapes from year to year, the 'experts' guesses on the specific players who will be selected and the number of players projected to be selected always appear to be way off.
• In some cases, even the players that a particular team protects don't seem to make sense.  For example, Cade Smith last year and Tim Herrin two years ago seemed unlikely to be rostered over more highly-ranked prospects.  They were protected and, as they say, the rest is history.  
• What the experts don't know is what they don't know.  The general thought here is that there are red flags that those experts don't see that cause teams to protect players.  For example, if teams ask about a prospect during trade discussions of a veteran, this is a sign that at least one team believes in this prospect.  Also, a team may have internal metrics that say that a particular prospect has more potential than the industry, as a whole, thinks.

The bottom line here is that roster spots are like gold.  Teams shouldn't, and generally don't, waste a roster spot on a second or third tier prospect unless they truly believe in him. 

So, there's a little background.  

But what about this year?

In this post I want to look at 3 things from recent Rule 5 drafts:

1. The high profile players who were available
2. The players who were actually selected
3. The players who stuck with the team who drafted them in the Rule 5

So let's look back over the past 2 Major League Rule 5 drafts (all of them since the COVID season) and see what we have:

2022 

•  176 (out of 900) top 30 prospects were eligible for the Rule 5 draft.  Cleveland only had 2 top prospects, Joey Cantillo and Angel Martinez, who were Rule 5-eligible.  They obviously had a lot more prospects, but just 2 who were highly rated.
• 76 were added to 40-man rosters (Cleveland added Cantillo and Martinez)
• 34 players were also added to 40 man rosters who were not on teams' top 30 prospect lists (Cleveland added Brito and Herrin)
• 15 total players were selected in this draft.
• 13 pitchers (2 LHP), 1 OF/C (Blake Sabol), 1 1B (Ryan Noda)
• 2 players (#1 R5 pick Thad Ward (#15 for Boston), #5 R5 pick Mason Englert (#29 for Texas)) were top 30 prospects on the team they were drafted from
• Of the 15 players selected, 13 were picked from teams who protected at least one player NOT in their top 30 prospects. Nick Avila was selected by the White Sox from San Francisco, who rostered 4 prospects not in their top 30 in addition to 2 of 5 of their top 30 prospects who were R5-eligible.
• 8 of the 15 players drafted were returned to their original teams.  For the other 7:
• Thad Ward spent part of 2023 on the IL but was on the ML active roster enough to be kept by Washington who sent him back to AAA in 2024 where he started 28 games.
• Ryan Noda had a .734 OPS for Oakland in 2023 and was hurt most of 2024.
• Jose Hernandez spent all 2023 in the Pittsburgh bullpen, but a good part of 2024 in the minors
• Blake Sabol spent all of 2023 with San Francisco but much of 2024 in the minors
• Mason Englert spent most of 2023 in the Tigers bullpen and much of 2024 in the minors
• Kevin Kelly spent all of 2023 and 2024 in Tampa's bullpen.
• Wilking Rodriguez spent all of 2023 on the IL and was released in 2024 and re-signed to a minor league contract in November.

2023

• 152 (out of 900) top 30 prospects were eligible for the Rule 5 draft.  (Daniel Espino #8) and Dayan Frias (#15) were the only top 30 prospects the Guardians needed to protect}
• 52 were added to 40-man rosters (Daniel Espino was the only ranked (#8) prospect protected by Cleveland who also protected Cade Smith who was not a top 30 prospect for them.}
• 10 total players were selected in this draft.
• 8 pitchers (1 LHP), 1 INF (Nasim Nunez), 1 3B/1B (Deyvison De Los Santos, drafted by the Guardians)
• 4 players (De Los Santos, ARI #5; Matt Sauer NYY #25; Shane Drohan, Bos #19; Nunez Miami #16) were top 30 prospects on the team they were drafted from
• 3 of the 10 players drafted were returned to their original teams (including De Los Santos, who was traded at the deadline and is now Miami's #4 prospect).  For the other 7:
• Mitch Spence - spent the whole season with Oakland and started 24 games (35 overall)
• Anthony Molina - pitched the entire season for Colorado out of the bullpen
• Nasim Nunez - Nunez served all of 2024 as a utility infielder for Washington
• Ryan Fernandez pitched the entire season out of the bullpen for St. Louis
• Justin Slaten - pitched the entire season out of the bullpen for Boston
• Stephen Kolek - Kolek pitched the entire season out of the bullpen for San Diego
• Carson Coleman - Coleman spent the entire 2024 season on the 60-day IL for Texas and, as such, is still subject to being returned to the Yankees if he does not fulfill 90 days on Texas' active list in 2025.

SUMMARY

The trends are clear:

•  Over 150 top 30 prospects need to be protected against the Rule 5 each year.
• Two-thirds of these top prospects are not protected by teams against the Rule 5
• Even with the large number of top 30 prospects available to be drafted in the Rule 5, the majority of prospects selected in the Rule 5 are NOT top 30 prospects.  

So, as has been the case in the past:

• Teams draft who they think can play in the majors in some capacity right now
• Teams draft who they think have long term potential but, in most cases, that potential generally won't be recognized for years, at least based on their production in their first year after being selected in the Rule 5.
• None of the 'experts' have any idea who will be drafted or who will be successful IF they are drafted in the Rule 5.

So, in summary, we will know what we know when we know it but Cleveland should consider protecting all their pitching prospects (Aleman, Nikhazy, Webb, Davenport, Mace, Denholm) who are Rule 5 eligible, have starting pitching upside and are close to the majors.