2025 Guardians Amateur Draft - Part 17 - Mock Draft 3.0 - Day 1 Picks

First, a mea culpa.  I was under the impression that the draft was still a 3 day event. 1-2 on July 13, 3-10 on July 14 and 11-20 on July 15. 

Turns out that I was confused.  So July 13th is rounds 1-3 and July 14th is rounds 4-20.  That adds extra pressure on teams and caused me to redo this post and the next one.  

So, here goes my Mock 3.0, Rounds 1-3.

So, the night before Day 1 of the draft is here.  Lots of movement on rankings in the last few days which is not surprising as writers get more information and hear more rumors right before the draft, especially on guys who are moving in and out of the back end of the first round and the second round.

That being said, there is always some flux in each round based on guys being selected earlier than expected and guys, mostly HS players, falling as teams get skittish about signability and about the dangers of drafting HS players.

So, what I decided to do is to do this as if I had a big board for the draft and would just draft the highest player left on my board.  Obviously, some of this is guesswork but I will post this tonight and, during day 1, I will have a blog post detailing who has been picked and what this did to my big board.

The biggest watchout on Day 1: If teams snap up college pitchers and outfielders and leave the HS hitters, pitchers and college infielders lite on power potential, the first day could get really ugly for Guardians in a lot of ways, especially on being able to acquire talent that would make the majors before Jose Ramirez's current contract expires. 

And that is the big thing for me on the first 2 days of the draft: acquire college talent that will move quickly and be available for the 2028 season, if not 2027 (assuming there is no work stoppage).  So, there, in a nutshell, is my draft strategy for days 1 and 2.

So, let's get started with my Day 1 draft board.

Slot #27

1. Tyler Bremner RHP - UC Santa Barbara

2.  Jace Laviolette OF - Texas A&M

3. Andrew Fischer 1B/3B/OF - Oklahoma

4. Mason Neville CF - Oregon

5. Devin Taylor - LF - Indiana

6. Max Belyeu OF - Texas

7. Ethan Conrad - OF - Wake Forest

8. Patrick Forbes - RHP - Louisville

Rationale - My goal with this pick is to pick a college power hitter who will be a contributor before Ramirez's contract expires in 2028 (maybe Kwan's, too, if we extend him a QO) and before all of our young pitchers reach free agency/  Of course, if a plum like Bremner drops in my lap, I have to pick him, as he reminds me so much of Shane Beiber. Aside from that, this pick will be reserved for a good college power hitter.  Early in the year it appeared that Laviolette might slide to this slot due to poor early performance by these two players.  Now it looks less likely.  Andrew Fischer has been my pick for this slot since my Mock 1.0.  He has the best combination of power and hit tool for a college player who will be left at this point of the draft.  If he is gone Mason Neville would be a good fallback position as he has plus power and the, likely, the ability to stay in CF.  I don't believe Devin Taylor will still be there but, due to his poor defense and arm, I put him below Neville.  More appealing is Max Belyeu who has less power than Neville but a stronger arm. If I had to choose between Conrad and Forbes that would be a hard pick as Conrad doesn't have th power I want and Forbes doesn't have the command.  Originally I looked at Caden Bodine if Fischer was not available but his scout grades did not match his limited production this year and his tools are similar to Ingle so I have eliminated him from consideration.  In any case, there are a lot of guys to pick from here who are all very similar in tools.  For me, it is between Fischer and Neville and I can make a case for each.

Slot #64 

1. AJ Russell RHP - Tennessee

2. Joseph Dzierwa LHP Michigan State

3. Marcus Phillips, RHP, Tennessee

4. Casey Shores RHP  LSU

5. Cade Obermueller LHP Iowa

6. Michael Lombardi RHP Tulane

Rationale -  Obviously this can change depending on any surprises between our picks at #27 and #64. But, assuming that everything goes pretty much as it is laid out in rankings & with our pick at #27, I am clearly looking for a college pitcher here. To help with the chances of getting Russell I have flipflopped him and Dzierwa.  In reality, Russell, and his potentially 80 grade fastball, could be gone before this slot and there is only one team picking between our #64 and #66 picks so it is more a ceremonial honor than anything real.  Dzierwa is the type of guy the Guardians like, with 55 control, a great changeup and what looks like the ability to add more mph to his fastball.  Think Parker Messick but with a slightly better fastball at the time he is drafted.   If Dzierwa and Russel are gone then we go down the list although I think Phillips and Obermueller will be gone before this pick and Obermueller is the dreaded short pitcher.

Slot #66

1. Joseph Dzierwa LHP Michigan St.

2. Marcus Phillips RHP Tennesse

3. Michael Lombardi RHP Tulane

4. James Ellwanger RHP Dallas Baptist

5. Cade Obermueller LHP Iowa

Rationale - Lots of pressure on my draft strategy to take a college power hitter here but, instead, I am looking for another college pitcher. As most of the remaining very talented college power hitters left will be 1B/DH types, I went college pitcher. Dzierwa has polish and Phillips, Lombari and Ellwanger have warts on their control and Obermueller is a short college pitcher.  Stll, from this group, I would get a good college pitcher who will not be that far away from the major leagues...compared to a HS player available at this slot who would, even if they DO make the majors, would do so after Jose's current contract expires.

Slot #70

1. Gavin Turley OF Oregon State

2. James Quinn-Irons OF George Mason

3. Ethan Petry OF/1B South Carolina

4. Jared Jones 1B LSU

5. Taitn Gray C/OF HS

6. Herny Ford OF/1B Virginia

Rationale - Turley has maybe the best power in the draft left at this point.  He is also versatile in the OF, probably like Nolan Jones.  Petry and Jones are power only guys but I am looking for power.  Quinn-Irons is a late riser who wasn't in the  top 150 draft prospects until the combine and now is predicted to go as high as 75.  I still want Quinn-Irons as he he can play center, steal a base and has 55/60 grade power. Gray has the best HS power in the draft and if I can't get any of the three above him, Gray, who will take longer to develop and comes with a higher risk as a HS hitter, will be too good to pass up.  Henry Ford, a little too much hit over power, will be my fallback position as I think he should be available and maybe can regain his lift with some pro coaching.

#101

1. Matt Barr, RHP - Niagara CC

2. James Quinn-Irons OF George Mason

2. Nolan Schubart OF Oklahoma State

3. Taitn Gray C/OF HS

4. Sean Youngerman - RHP - Oklahoma State

5. Jared Jones - 1B - LSU

Rationale - Barr's stock was good but took a real jump up with his spin rate at the draft combine.  He should probably be there at 101 and as I said in my Mock 2.0, I want this guy. He may be a real bust and this is very unlike the Guardians to draft a JUCO guy this high but it's not like he is a nobody, having been on draft boards all spring.  If I don't get Barr then I revert back to my original plan of getting college power bats, taking fast risers James Quinn-Irons or Nolan Schubart.  If someone takes an early flyer on Schubart and Quinn-Irons and Gray is not available, than I revert back to my 'safe' pick from Mock 1.0, Youngerman who is a classic Guardians' pitching prospect, having excellent control.  Taking Youngerman here means that I will want to have a significant high risk/high reward pitcher later. If I get Barr then I want some safe picks later. Taking Schubart means that I likely will be all college pitchers through at least round 9.  

So, more tomorrow after I digest what happened today and have a chance to look at who is still left after the dust from today settles, I'll provide my Day 2 mock in the same format as I used above for Day 1 picks.

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2025 Guardians Amateur Draft - Part 16 - The Night Before The Day Before The First Night of The Draft - Final Thoughts

 OK, it's Friday.  The draft starts in 2 days.  Lots of rumors and movement all through draft.

So here are my random thoughts as we get ready for the chaos of the draft.

• Nothing has changed from my initial thoughts.  My priorities in this draft are:
• College power hitters
• College power pitchers
• High school catchers (2 in rounds 11-20)
• Injured college pitchers
• High school pitcher flyers in rounds 10-20 (2 total)
• College relievers
• The premise behind the above is that the major driving force behind the picks for this draft is that we do things only to make the ML team stronger between now and 2018 where we will have a big inflection point in this organization as Dolan sells, Ramirez and Clase contracts expire (maybe Kwan's, too) and a lot of our young pitchers will be approaching free agency.  We need to do whatever we can to win now and through 2028.
• In rounds 1-10 we should not be drafting a single HS player,  except in Round 10 where we could draft a HS pitcher flyer if we have gotten the players we wanted in rounds 1-9.  ESPN, in their last mock, had us drafting HS players on 3 of their first 4 picks with the only college player being Cade Obermueller at #70.  Scary and, IMO, detrimental to this organization if it were to happen.
• Remind yourself of the following about the Guardians
• They are really good at the last 10 rounds of the draft
• They, have, in recent years, done strange things (2021 college pitcher draft, 2023 slap hitter draft)
• Finally, and this is the toughest one, keep repeating "Teams lke who they like". Once a pick is made the horse is out of that barn and, as fans, even fans who follow the draft closely, we have to just move in.  The more you know, the more frustrated you can feel.  So just assume everything is going to work out
• A new wrinkle has sprung up in the draft this year that might impact the Guardians.
• Josh Naylor is supposedly being shopped by the Diamondbacks at the deadline, likely for a prospect who may very well be better than anyone we would get using the draft pick we got in this trade.
• Bryan Baker, a mediocre reliever, was just traded by Baltimore for the #37 pick in the draft, setting a very low price for the value of these competitive balance picks.  Remember, Naylor got Cleveland Slade Cecconi and the #66 pick in the draft.
• So, the Guardians, anticipating that Naylor might bring a great prospect back in a trade, might try to hit a HR with the #66 pick and risk striking out big, If this happens it will throw salt in the wound of a trade I didn't think Cleveland got enough from. I worry the Guardians might double down on the issues with this trade.  I just hope they put all that out of their mind and draft a good, solid prospect with that pick and avoid some brass ring grab of selecting a high risk guy.
• Andrew Fischer, my pick in my Mock 1 and 2 drafts is getting some helium and may be gone before the Guardians draft at #27.  As you will see when I do my mock 3.0 draft, there are plenty of good players in the first 5 rounds of the draft who will likely be available at the slots the Guardians draft at.
• Players who are draft-eligible are starting to pull out of the draft, including some guys who attended the draft combine.  I had thought if you attended the combine you were very interested in going pro but it looks like that might not be universally true.  I will be watching those announcements to see if they impact my mock drafts.
• Finally, as you will see tomorrow, I am taking a much different approach to my mock 3.0. For the first 10 rounds I am giving 3-6 players who I would consider drafting at each slot.  As I said, there are lots of quality players available as this draft is solid with the kinds of players I am looking for: college power hitters, college pitchers who are tall and are the opposite of soft tossers and high school catchers. There will be plenty of good players who I want to target in rounds 11-20, too, including HS catchers, college power hitters, high school pitching flyers and college pitchers with beig arms.  

Look forward to providing my Mock 3.0 for Day 1 of the draft (rounds 1-3) tomorrow night sometime. Then on Sunday night I will provide my Mock 3.0 for Day 2 which will include a "big board" of players I want to target in rounds 11-20.   On Day 2 I will also be doing a live blog and, after round 10 , I will expand my big board to include players not selected in rounds 1-10.

The fun starts on Sunday. Let's hope we have lots of positive things to talk about after Sunday and Monday!  Go Guardians!

2025 Guardians Amateur Draft - Part 15 - Comparison of Possible 1st Round Draft Picks Compared To Recent Draft Picks

So, there have been lots of mock drafts that have appeared for first round picks in the 2025 draft.  I thought it would be a good time to take a look at the scouting grades for each of the players I have seen linked with the Guardians.  For comparison sake, I have included the scouting grades of current top, recently drafted Guardians prospects.  I have only included college hitters as I feel that this will be the strength of the draft when the Guardians pick at #27.  I have broken this down into two groups (IF/OF or Catcher) based on what I have seen in mock drafts.  As you can see below, except for Caden Bodine, all of the top college hitters who have any chance of being available when the Guardians draft are left-handed hitters.

IF or OF

Bazzana (L): 65 Hit; 60 Power; 60 Run; 50 Fifeld; 50 Arm

DeLauter (L): 50 Hit; 60 Power; 55 Run; 50 Field; 60 Arm

CJ Kayfus (L): 55 Hit; 45 Power; 45 Run; 55 Field; 45 Arm

Andrew Fischer (L): 50 Hit; 60 Power; 40 Run; 45 Field; 55 Arm

Max Belyeu L): 55 Hit; 55 Power; 50 Run; 50 Field; 60 Arm

Mason Neville (L): 45 Hit; 60 Power; 55 Run; 50 Field; 55 Arm

Ethan Conrad (L): 55 Hit; 50 Power; 55 Run; 50 Field; 50 Arm

Cam Cannella (L): 55 Hit; 40 Power; 60 Run; 60 Field; 40 Arm

For comparison sake, here are two guys who might fall to the Guardians but have not been linked to them and who, likely, will be drafted before Cleveland picks:

Jace Laviollette (L): 45 Hit; 65 Power; 55 Run; 50 Field; 55 Arm

Devin Taylor (L): 55 Hit; 60 Power; 45 Run; 45 Field; 45 Arm

CATCHER

Cooper Ingle (L): 55 Hit; 30 Power; 50 Run; 50 Field; 45 Arm

Jacob Cozart (L): 40 Hit; 50 Power; 30 Run; 55 Field; 55 Arm

Caden Bodine (S): 60 Hit; 40 Power; 30 Run; 55 Field; 50 Arm

Luke Stevenson (L): 40 Hit; 55 Power; 30 Run; 55 Field; 60 Arm

ANALYSIS

All of the guys above seem to have talents the Guardians would need.  Without peeling back the onion to look at currently favored analytics (e.g., exist velocities, in-zone contact, chase) AND if you are looking for power (as I am, first and foremost) and defense and consider what this organization needs now in the next few years, the best choice would appear to be Mason Neville who looks like he will stick in CF or Andrew Fischer, if the team thinks he can stay at 3B.  

I am not into any additional contact-first guys so Cannella is not for me and Conrad is only acceptable to me if Taylor, LaViollette, Fischer and Neville are gone.

As far as the catchers, I was on Bodine for a while as the next guy up if Fischer is gone but I just don't think his scouting grades reflect his numbers.  He had his worst year in 2025, his draft year, and his value comes from his framing (maybe not important if we get ABS) and his hit tool, which did not show itself that much in performance this year, although the metrics say it should have.  Shoulda, coulda, woulda is not what I want to base my top pick on, however, especially when I have a similar guy (Ingle) in the organization already. Stevenson, to me, is a sucker pick as he is a catcher, which is generally the worst end of round 1 demographic, and his hit tool is questionable, making him maybe a bad risk of becoming a starting catcher. And we have Cozart whose ratings seem to be similar to those of Stevenson.

Remember, the goal here is to draft a college hitter who will mature fast enough to be a force during Ramirez and Kwan current contract period (2028 for both, although Kwan would have to accept a qualifying offer for 2028).  

Obviously Taylor could eventually be a replacement for Kwan if he goes elsewhere and Fischer, if his defense can stick at 3B, would be the replacement for Ramirez, if he leaves after 2028 (I hope Ramirez stays for his entire career in Cleveland!). LaViollete had an off year this year but he gives me DeLauter vibes but without the injury history.  I don't think Taylor or LaViollette is around when Cleveland picks, however.

2025 Guardians Amateur Draft - Part 14 - Things That Worry/Comfort Me And Random Thoughts

 THINGS THAT WORRY ME (AND COMFORT ME)  LEADING UP TO THIS DRAFT

• WORRY: Ralphy Velasquez was drafted one spot after Colt Emerson in 2023.  Emerson is the #16 prospect in all of baseball.  Velasquez is the #9 prospect...in the Guardians top 30...not even in the top 100 in the game.  I thought this, plus Bo Naylor, Jake Fox and other HS hitters they have drafted would dissuade them from drafting any HS hitter early.  However, Ralphy is currently on a heater, pulling his average over .200 and continuing with his high % of XBH. So...

• WORRY: Despite the struggles this year of Joey Oakie, Jacob Zibin, Chase Mobley, Keegan Zinn and other recent HS pitcher draftees, Braylon Doughty is kind of on a heater himself.   His performance after an aggressive promotion to start the year at Lynchburg added to the success of former high HS pick Alex Clemmy at A+ this year, makes me worry the Guardians are going to spend another high pick or two on HS pitchers. I am all for 3rd day HS pitcher draft picks but I  think you have to go college early to fit into our current competitive window (defined by Ramirez' contract, to be specific).

• WORRY: Slow promotion (Tommy Hawke at Lynchburg, really?) has led to bloated stats for their 2022 and 2023 college slap hitter drafts. That, plus the success of Kayfus, makes me worry they are going to repeat, at some level, of that type of draft in 2025 despite the fact that Kayfus' upside projection of .290 w/15 HRs and no speed for a likely 1Bman in MLB is STILL his current trajectory, despite his quick upward trajectory (i.e., success at AAA),  In my opinion we have more than enough evidence that drafting LH slap hitters with no power (Lampe and Furman, for example) is a bad idea.

• COMFORT: The Guardians draft people like to be innovators.  The 2021 college pitcher draft may be the best draft in franchise history.  The 2023 LHH collage slap hitter draft was certainly a choice.  Maybe that can play to the Guardians advantage this year if they decide that college power hitters and college pitchers in the first 2 days of the draft is the way to go.  If they decide to draft HS pitchers, HS catchers and power hitters (HS and college) on the 3rd day instead of their standard organizational picks of college position player/college catcher/college relief pitcher/HS pitcher flyer 3rd day mix, maybe we can have a great 3rd day.  Plus, making the 11th round pick like a second, first round pick would be an improvement over previous years. The performance so far by Logun Clark should help that, although his BA is still not where I'd hoped it would be.

• COMFORT: There is not a lot of crazy buzz about players bolting up draft boards this late in the draft cycle.  Normally, there is a lot of movement but either teams are planning to play this straight or, like usual, are playing it close to their vests on this.  Still, there is usually some buzz and I haven't seen any, making me think this draft may be more predictable than recent drafts with guys going off the board when expected and teams like the Guardians, who like to be innovators, having the prospects they want to pick be available when they draft. So, it gives me faith that Matt Barr and some of the other guys I have targeted in my Mock 2.0 could still be there when the Guardians have the pick I think they should draft them.

• COMFORT: I have not seen anywhere this draft described anywhere as being strong on power hitters.   Teams like to draft multiple tool position players so a 1 (power) or 2 (power plus hit) tool, potential DH guy doesn't seem to be at the top of teams' boards.  SEEMS. Don't know what the reality is. 

• WORRY: The draft day phrase that makes me shutter with fear is "teams like who they like".  That gives a lot of space for draft room guys who think they are smarter than anyone else in the room (with "room" defined as all the draft people from all the teams) to make dumbass moves that will end up not helping us EVER.  Brady Aiken comes to mind but there have been so many of these head-scratching picks of guys who turn out to be terrible over the years that whenever I see these Cody Bunkelman-like picks that I cringe. So, that is my history and those are my fears.

RANDOM DRAFT THOUGHTS

• Will the Guardians' struggles influence their draft strategy?  For example, if they plan to be sellers at the deadline and target recent HS pitching draftees on other teams' low A rosters (e.g, as they did with Pittsburgh's Michael Kennedy), will that influence their draft strategy away from HS pitchers.  How about targeting switch hitters as trade targets? Even though he hasn't dominated yet, the thought of a bench with a switch hitter like Martinez along with Schneeman (LHH) and Fry (RHH) is intriguing, especially if Fry is the backup catcher next year and they can add another bench guy.  Switch hitters with good defensive versatility (like Martinez) are invaluable, IMO, to a good bench for a small market team, especially if that player has some power.

• I found a great article (2025 MLB Draft: Data Dig, Under the Radar Hitters who Possess Power & Plate Control) that details under-the-radar power hitters with good plate control/contact skills.  I think this could be a good pool of guys for 3rd day selections.  Again, these are 3rd day picks and so scouts shouldn't overthink that they found this pitcher at podunk U who is undervalued because, normally, those guys have a low probability of success and we have run that well dry in previous years.  Maybe time to try something different in 2025 and this article gives me faith those position players with power are still out there.

• The Guardians like to draft guys who have been successful on the Cape and guys who are young for their class.  I wonder how that will play into this draft as there are literal bunches of guys with that profile among the top prospects in this draft class.

• The most recent MLB Pipeline draft has us taking Ethan Conrad.  I hope not.  Most mocks I have seen have Tyler Bremner and Jace Laviollette going pretty early and it looks like Cam Bodine could go in the middle of the first round.  All that it would take is for Fischer to be taken before the Guardians and we may get into a place I don't want to be: taking someone who has bust or role player written all over him.  I think they need someone solid, not spectacular.  Someone who will play with Jose before his contract expires.

2025 Guardians Amateur Draft - Part 13 - Switch Hitters

 On Guardians message boards there has been some chatter about how too many of Guardians' hitters are left-handed.  Well, from my vantage point, that is by design.  Unfortunately, it appears that our draft strategy and our analytics for our major league team don't align.  Sometimes at Columbus and Akron they can, and do, field teams with 7 LHH on the field, regardless of the handedness of the opposing pitcher.  Almost all of our top hitting prospects from the US are LHH.  Our switch hitters are generally Latin American players (e.g., Jaison Chourio, Angel Genao and Angel Martienz).  In fact, only 1 of the top 12 switch hitters in the top 100 prospects in baseball in 2025 was obtained in the draft.  The rest were international signees.

So, my thought was to look at what switch hitters there were in the 2025 draft and would any of them be fits for the Guardians at their draft slots.  So let's take a look, using MLB's top 200 list and some digging I have been doing on my own. The prospect ranking is listed first with each guy.  Anyone above 27 or between 27 and 60 is probably going to be gone before we would ever consider drafting a switch hitter in the first and second round, respectively..

5. Eli Willits SS HS - He is gone well before the Guardians draft.

36. Cam Bodine - C - College - Bodine is, for me, a dark horse to be picked by the Guardians at #27. While I would not hate that pick it would immediately signal tha 2024 2nd round pick, college catcher Jacob Cozart was possibly already being looked at as a failed pick and that the Guardians had concerns about the long-term viability of Cooper Ingle at catcher.  Nevertheless, if things fall a particular way, Bodine would be a great choice as an offensive-minded switch hitting catcher, albeit with a similar hitting profile to Ingle.

92. Taityn Gray C/OF HS - Gray will likely be gone before the Guardians select at #101 and I can't imagine them popping him at any of our 2nd round picks but Gray, a favorite at the scouting combine, has huge power but, at 6'4", is raw as a catcher and may end up in the OF.  If that is the way the Guardians' brain trust is leaning, it is hard for me to believe they will pick him earlier than the 6th round when they already have a young, failed catcher, Ralphy Valezquez, in their farm system as one of their better prospects.

96 - Ethan Moore SS/2B - HS - I don't see us popping a HS MIFer this early.  Our MIFers seem to come more from Latin America so I don't see him as a good fit.

106 - Josiah Hartshorn - OF - HS - I don't see us popping at HS OF this early but he might be interesting as a 3rd day pick

136 - Mason Pike - SS/RHP - HS - He is likely to want to hit and pitch to start his career in professional ball as he is almost guaranteed to get a chance to do that at Oregon.

152 - Drew Faurot - 2B - Florida State - While Faurot would be a good 3rd day pick by the Guardians, he likely will be gone before that and his tools don't really make me think he would be a good Day 2 pick for the Guardians.

Other switch hitters I have found on the web who are names I wouldn't mind hearing on day 3 are:

Blaine Bullard, OF, HS

Lucas Steele 1B/OF Auburn

CJ Hughes, SS, HS

So that's all I have right now.  There is no source that I have (or am willing to pay for) that can give me a more comprehensive list of switch hitters available in the draft this year.  I still like the idea of taking the best switch hitter available on the 3rd day, providing we know we can sign him and have the money left over to do that.  Remember, we want to spread our excess money around this year so I wouldn't want it to be a lot over slot on day 3 but certainly $250,000 is not out of the question if one of the guys above are available. 

2025 Guardians Amateur Draft - Part 12 - Random Thoughts

 Ok, the draft is coming and it's time for some random thoughts that will color my final Mock draft which should post the night before Day 1 of the draft. 

• NO SOFT TOSSERS  We have drafted soft tossers like Austin Peterson, Dylan DeLucia and Will Dion. For those of you who saw Peterson's last two AAA starts, it is obvious to me now that every soft tosser reaches a level where they can't compete.  Matthew Boyd is the exception, not the model we should strive to be.  So, no soft tossers except on day 3 in my Mock Draft 3.0.

• NO HS PITCHERS EXCEPT ON DAY 3 - I am OK with the HS pitchers we took last year.  But look at their stats.  Even the best HS pitchers are projects.  So while I'd draft one of two of them on the 3rd day, I just can't see how we can go to that well early in the 2025 draft.  We need guys who will be important contributors in this decade.

• I MAY SOFTENT MY STANCE ON COLLEGE CATCHERS - If Andrew Fischer, Jace LaViolette and Tyler Bremner are gone when we pick at 27, I might be inclined to pick Cam Bodine.  He is a switch hitter with the best hit tool in the draft.  Looking at Naylor and Cozart, we will need someone to pair with Ingle in a couple of years and that could easily be Bodine.

• NO DAKOTA JORDAN-LIKE PICKS - Jordan fell last year because people questioned if his potential would ever match his talent. Looking at this year's class I want solid guys until we get to the 3rd day.  So I plan to stay away from the type of guys who tend to be overdrafted based on their raw potential.  BTW, so far Jordan's performance is validating the people who stayed away although I will say Jordan was a good gamble in the 4th round, especially if you have a strong farm system.  Cleveland doesn't and I don't think a brass ring grab is the way to go in this draft.

• YOU CAN NEVER HAVE ENOUGH DHs - It is great to have a slick SS, a great centfielder and a great defensive catcher.  Well, if you can't score runs it doesn't matter.  We have spent a lot of drafts trying to find well-rounded position players and, in recent years, were looking for contact-oriented hitters who could grow into their power stroke or, maybe, have enough good other tools to compensate for no power.  For  me, it is time to go back to accumulating the Bash Brothers Part Deux.  A big part of my last Mock will be accumulating those players as I feel that postion players who are obviously DHs in waiting will be undervalued with teams always chasing that 5-tool players. Let's look for the next Kyle Schwarber...and hope other teams are dreaming on multi-tool guys.

• BIGGER IS BETTER - No Freddy Beenes in this draft.  If we get to choose between a 6'0" and a 6'5" guy I will choose the taller guy, even if the shorter guy is more polished and has better CURRENT upside. The Guardians' pitching braintrust can teach a lot of things but they can't teach tall. I'll be looking for tall pitchers, and that includes HS pitchers.

• THE ELEVENTH ROUND IS REALLY THE FIRST ROUND ON DAY 3 - Looking back, the Guardians' 11th round picks have been Garrett Howe (2024), Johny Tincher (2023), Magnus Ellerts (2022) and Hunter Stanley (2021). All of these are college guys but I would venture to say that only Ellerts was an attempt to get the absolute best prospect available when their 11th round pick rolled around.  And maybe not even Ellerts.  It's time to treat this pick as if the 11th round pick was their first pick in the draft.  They have all night after day 2.  Pick the best available player you are pretty sure you cna sign, even if you have to go over slot.  In fact, there is something to be said for going MOST overslot on your 11th round pick.  Not saying to do that but there is some logic as you will likely outdo all other teams for 3rd day talent with just one pick.

• SPREAD THE WEALTH - The Guardians will not have the luxury of saving close to $3 million on their 1st round pick this year.   Still, like in 2023 when they gave $1 million to Alex Mooney and, in so doing, didn't have enough to sign Mac Heuer and Ryan Marohn, they could have spread the money around to sign 3 good players instead of just Mooney. This year they need to do better BECAUSE they won't have a lot of excess to spread around and not put their eggs in one basket like they did with Mooney.  It cost them a guy with the potential to be a first rounder in 2026 (Marohn) and another good pitching prospect (Heuer).  So, in 2025, they need to spread the money around, especially leaving a good war chest for the 3rd day draftees.

2025 Guardians Amateur Draft - Part 11 - Finding 3rd Day Hidden Gems - Under The Radar College Pitchers

 OK, here is where the pre-draft stuff gets fun...and interesting.  In Parts 7 and 8 we talked under the radar power hitters and high school catchers who, if available on day 3, might be good late-in-the-draft picks.

Today, we'll focus on college pitchers.  These come in 3 different types: injured, transfer portal guys and simple, old fashioned, under the radar guys.  

Plus, as an add on, I will list out all the other college pitchers who attended the combine but were not among the top 200 MLB Pipeline draft prospects in their most recent list and were not covered in my mock drafts or other pitchers I mention in the categories below..

For me, the 3rd day of the Guardians draft should be filled with college power hitters, injured and under-the-radar college power arms and high school catchers.  Note that some of the guys I talk about below are intriguing enough that they might end up in the first two days of my mock draft 3.0.  But let's just dive in and see what we come up with:

INJURED COLLEGE PITCHERS

 This, to me, is where the real value is.  Some of these guys might not even play in 2026 and some, due to their injury history, might start 2026 in extended spring training and make their debut in the ACL instead of a full-season team. But, with the Guardians history of rehabbing injured college pitchers, I am excited about the guys below. In order, here are some of the guys I am very intrigued about:

1. Pierce Coppola, 6'8" - LHP - Florida - Senior - For those of you who remember, I was all over Coppola in my 2024 mock and thought we had lost him when he had a really good CWS start after not pitching much of the year.  However, he returned to college this year and was doing well until he suffered an arm injury.  Again this year, I really want this guy.  He is injured A LOT, but you really can't argue with 43 Ks in 21 IP in the SEC.  And THAT is Coppola, whose 2025 followed a 2024 Cape season where he struck out 15 in 7 IP.  He was at the combine this year.

2. Michael Salina - 6'1", RHP, St Bonaventure - Junior - All I have to say about this guy is that he was sitting at 96 and touched 102 before he was injured after 4 starts in 2025.  He walked only 6 in 17 IP before the injury so he is a Cleveland type of guy, to be sure. At draft combine.

3. Ben Abeldt - 6'2", LHP, TCU - Junior - Abeldt did not pitch in 2025 but had a 1.86 ERA in 26 games with 8 saves and was 44 ip/16 BB/56 Ks.  He entered 2025 as the #116 prospect in BA's first ranking but did not pitch this year due TJ surgery in April.   Is #218 on the updated MLB Pipeline rankins. Abeldt was at the 2025 MLB draft combine.

4. Matthew Matthijs - 6'3", RHRP, North Carolina - Junior - Matthijs was injured late in 2025 and might be a good end of 3rd day pickup. In 2024 he pitched in a relief role, striking out 56 in 58 IP with 18 BB.  Again, a Guardians guy who throws strikes and racks up Ks.

5. Evan Chrest - 6'0" - RHP - Florida Stat - Junior - At the draft combine even though he was injured.

6. Jared Spencer - 6'3" - LHP - Texas - Senior - Spencer had a 3.27 ERA this year before injuring his shoulder.  He had a 52 IP/23 BB/66 K/ 41 H season.  I think he is a good fit if the Guardians are willing to rehab his shoulder after surgery.

UNDER THE RADAR COLLEGE PITCHERS

The Guardians, like many other teams, love these kinds of guys.  The one pitch pitchers.  The one plus and one average pitcher 2-pitch guys and, finally, the group that Coppola fell in last year, the guys who just, for whatever reason, haven't gotten a good shot but have decided to stick it out instead of running screaming to the transfer portal (more about that below)

There are probably 100 of these guys like this (again, see below in the expanded list from the combine) but here a few I have found that might be of interest:

1. Ryan DeSanto, RHP, Penn St.

2. Aaron Savary, RHP, Iowa

3. Callan Fang, RHP, Harvard

4. Tyler Fay, RHP, Alabama

TRANSFER PORTAL GUYS

I will be honest here. I don't like transfer portal guys.  Heck, I don't like the transfer portal.  While once in a while the marriage between a player and a college can go so sour that there is no saving it.  However, except for those rare instances (representing <10% of the guys in the portal), it says something to me about the guy if he jumps from one college to another because he doesn't believe he is getting a fair chance at a school or the coach who recruited him left or, heaven forbid, because he can get more NIL money at another school.  While there are a number of the top guys who transfer in their junior year to be on a bigger stage to up their draft stock, except for THAT <10% of transfers, I would not want to draft most guys who are in the transfer portal.

But, even with that personal preference, here are some college pitchers who have recently passed through or currently in the transfer portal. 

Regarding the Guardians, while I don't follow it that closely, it appears to me that they haven't in the past, seemed to draft guys in the transfer portal.  I could be wrong here, though.

With that intro, here are a list of  some of the guys in the portal, in no particular order, that are draft-eligible:

Blake Winck, RHP Ohio State (FB up to 98, on Twitter account) (at combine)

Kolten Smith, RHP, Georgia (at combine)

Itsuko Takemoto, RHP, Hawaii

Kole Klecker, RHP TCU

Jackson Soucie, LHP, South Carolina (now Kentucky)

Gabe Nard, RHP, Duke

Eli Jerzembeck, RHP, South Carolina (at combine)

COLLEGE PTICHERS AT THE 2025 ML DRAFT SCOUTING COMBINE NOT LISTED IN OTHER PLACES

Here is a complete listing of college pitchers who I have not listed above or who were not in my mock draft and not listed in MLB Pipeline's top 200 prospects who were at the draft combine this month.  While these guys may not get drafted, being at the combine is an indication of their willingness to at least consider playing pro ball.  (NOTE: Updated to remove guys who appear in the updated (250 deep) MLB Pipeline Draft Rankings and the ESPN top 150).

Heath Andrews, RHP, NC State

Hudson Barrett, LHP, UC Santa Barbara

Harrison Bodendorf, LHP, Oklahoma St.

Dylan Brown, LHP, Old Dominion

Jake Cook, LHP, Southern Miss

Matthew Dallas, LHP, Wake Forest

Alton Davis, LHP, Georgia

Ben Davis, LHP, Miss. St.

Mason Estrada, RHP, MIT

Leighton Finley, RHP, Georgia

Rory Fox, RHP, Notre Dame

Blake Gillespie, RHP, UNC Charlotte

Aaron Haugh, RHP, North Carolina

Justin Henschel, RHP, Florida Gulf Coast

Mac Heuer, RHP, Texas Tech (Guardians unsigned draftee in '23, used his bonus money to sign Alex Mooney)

Davion Hickson, RHP, Rice

Logan Lunceford, RHP, Wake Forest

Isaac Lyon, RHP, Grand Canyon

Jack Martinez, RHP, Arizona St.

Mason McConnaughey, RHP, Nebraska

Collin McKinney, RHP, Arizona

Justin Milrovich, RHP, Elon

Jack O'Connor, RHP, Virginia

Braden Osbolt, RHP, Kennesaw St.

Cameron Parker, RHP, TCU

Myles Patton, LHP, Texas A&M

Ryan Prager, LHP, Texas A&M (drafted in 3rd round but did not sign)

Peyton Prescott, RHP, Florida St.

Grant Richardson, LHP, Grand Canyon

Ruger Riojas, RHP, Texas

Shane Van Dam, RHP, NC State

Dylan Vigue, RHP, Michigan

Brian Walters, RHP, Miami

Ethan Young, RHP, East Carolina

OK, there you have it.  This is quite a list of pitchers.  However, when you consider over 300 players are selected in the first 2 days of the draft, a lot of these guys, especially the better ones, might not even make it to the 3rd day.  A number of the guys above are intriguing and I haven't even dug into the list above of guys at the residual combine guys list above.  

2025 Guardians Amateur Draft - Part 10 - Mock Draft 2.0

 OK, lots of mock drafts are coming out now and I have a few thoughts:

• If we take a contact first HS hitter in the first round who MIGHT develop power later (e.g., Slater de Brun), I will puke.  I mean, Bo Naylor and even Ralphy Velasquez haven't shown them that can't develop HS hitters.
• If they pick Tate Southisene as that HS hitter I will double puke.

Alright, that being said, here is my second mock draft, refined by what I saw in the CWS and read about the MLB draft combine. The good news is that a number of guys from my first mock draft (Barr, Taylor) showed up and showed out at the combine and that none of the rest of the guys appeared to increase their value at the CWS or the combine. 

NOTE: I have only included alternates for the pick a couple of the picks in this mock.  I will include more alternates for the rest of the top 10 rounds in my final mock draft that will be posted the night before the draft. 

Pick 27 - I am still on Andrew Fischer - 1B/3B, Tennessee or Tyler Bremner RHP, UC Santa Barbara. My two premises in this draft are college power hitters and college pitchers so why would I change that.  

ALTERNATES:  Jace LaViolette, OF, Texas A&M (if, somehow, he would fall to us) or, more likely, a solid (@ #27) college pitching prospect JB Middleton, RHP, Southern Miss, Patrick Forbes, RHP, Louisville or Riley Quick, RHP, Alabama. 

Pick 64 - Joseph Dzierwa - LHP - Michigan St.  I am still on this guy at this point. I think he is there and I think he might be gone much later.

Pick 66 - AJ Russell - RHP - Tennessee - I think his market did not heat up at all during the college playoffs so I think he is available at this point and I pop him due to his extreme fastball.  This guy is the perfect high risk, high reward college guy who has a high floor.  

Pick 70 - Gavin Turley - OF - Oregon State - I think it is unlikely that if he is still there at 64 that he won't be there at 70.  Could be wrong, as I often am, but that's my though.  I think he was just OK in the CWS meaining that his draft stock didn't rise that much.

Pick 101 - Matt Barr - RHP - Niagara CC - Barr was my 5th round pick in my 1.0 mock draft but I want him so much that, with the buzz he generated at the combine, I think he moves up boards.  I think to get him I have to go 3rd round and I am OK with that as a number of college pitchers will be available at 4 and 5 that I would want.

ALTERNATES: If Barr is gone I will revert back to my original premise of getting college power hitters in this draft and get Nolan Schubart, OF, Oklahoma St.  While he, like Fischer and Turley, are marginal defenders, he has shown big power this year. Another option is to revert back to my Mock 1.0 pick at this slot and grab Sean Youngerman, RHP, Oklahoma St.

Pick 132 - Zane Taylor - RHP - UNC Wilmington - Just like Barr, I want Taylor and I think his fastball at the MLB Draft Combine means that the only sure way to get him is to pop him in the 4th round so I have moved him up from pick 192 where I had him in my first mock.

Pick 162 - Caden Hunter - RHP - USC - I had him as my  slot 132 pick in my first draft. Hoping he lasts to 162 is a stretch to get him here but that's the point.  Whoever we draft in the 5th round should be an above budget guy. who fits our development strategy. I would really like another college power hitter here but a good college pitcher works for me, too, as long as he is someone who fell from where he was projected to be.

Pick 192 - Antoine Jean - LHP - Houston - Like Taylor, another senior sign to save us money who I have bumped up a round (6th) from the round (7th) I had him.

Pick 222 - Nolan Schubart - OF - Oklahoma State - Obviously I expect him to be gone by this time and if I pick him in the 3rd round because Barr was taken then I take a college pitcher here although I wouldn't be averse to signing a HS pitcher who has dropped significantly since I should have the money to go over slot.  I won't know about the HS pitchers until day 2 of the draft so I will reserve comment on them.  Instead, if I have to, I will go with a college pitcher with great control (see below) and let the Guardians' pitching development group work their magic.

ALTERNATES: Jack Anker, RHP Fresno State, Pierce Coppola, LHP, Florida

Pick 252 - Henry Allen -  IF - NW Florida JC - I want another power hitter, this one maybe a longer term development project.  No Will Brennan types, please.  I want a boom or bust guy here whose bonus won't break the bank.

Pick 282 - Jake Knapp - RHP - UNC - Again, a soft-tossing college senior, like Austin Peterson a couple of years ago, and the guy has to be a winner.  In 2025, that's Knapp.

Pick 312 - Marcelo Harsch - RHP - Seton Hall Prep - As I said the first time around, Harsch is just a placeholder for a HS pitcher who has dropped, like Mobley last year.

Pick 342 - ??? - This is my first pick on the 3rd day and I won't name him until I see who is available but this pick will be an overslot bonus guy who I would want to be the top talent who gets drafted in the 11th round who signs.  Money saved from the first and 2nd day goes here.  A HS catcher who has dropped or a college pitcher who was hurt and so dropped or another HS pitcher who dropped due to bonus demands, I don't care. I want to make a big splash for a guy I can sign on the first pick of day 3.  We'll have all night after day 2 to get our ducks in a row on this one so the Guardians should be able to use this pick for what it is really for...essentially a redo of the first round of draft, just with a lot of the top college players having been drafted already.  There should be plenty of talent available here...if we make this pick a priority in the evening after day 2.  

2025 Guardians Amateur Draft - Part 9 - Why You Should Never Look at My Mock Drafts - A History Lesson

 OK, looking at the college world series and the 2025 draft combine, I am looking pretty smart as a lot of my draft choices are making noise!

But I wanted to bring this back to earth with a history lesson on my mock drafts.  Let's look back at the drafts I suggested making. Some were mock drafts prior to the draft like this year and some were immediately post-draft mock drafts.  I'll let you know which is which below.

2023 (post-draft retrospective based on available players)

1. Hursten Waldrep:
2. Zack Gelof
2C. Joe Whitman
3. Levi Wells
4. MIchael Carico
5. Jace Bohrofen
6. Alex Mooney
7. Ross Dun
8. Blake Dickerson
9. Matt Etzel
10, Tanner Witt (did not sign)
11. Johny Tincher
12. Keegan Zinn
13. Jacob Bresnahan: 
14. Zane Morehouse
15. Kyle Scott
16. Mac Heuer (did not sign)
17. Barrett Riebock
18. Matt Jachac
19. Josh Harlow
20. Ryan Marohn (did not sign)

Comments: Almost every single pick from my draft has been terrible or injured.  Had the Guardians done my draft it could have gone down as one of the worst drafts in Cleveland history.

2022 (pre-draft)

Round 1 (16 overall) - Zach Neto - SS (went 3 picks before this)

Round 1S (37 overall) - Gabriel Hughes, RHP (went 27 picks before this)

Round 2 (54 overall) - Jud Fabian - OF

Round 3 (92 overall) - Luke Gold - infielder

Round 4 (122 overall) - Xavier Isaac - 1B HS (went 112 places earlier)

Round 5 (152 overall) - Jayson Jones - 3B, HS

Round 6 (182 overall) - Chris Villamin LHP, college

Round 7 (212 overall) - Jorel Ortega 2B, college

Round 8 (242 overall) - Nate Baez - C college

Round 9 (272 overall) - Riley Cornelio - RHP College

Round 10 (302 overall) - Tyler Schweitzer, LHP college

 

Comments - This is a mixed bag for me.  I like parts of my draft (Fabian and Isaac and the lack of slap hitters) but it is hard to argue with DeLauter and Messick and even the Campbell pick.  Bottom line: Other teams liked guys more than I did so my pre-draft strategy would have fallen apart and I would have, from the get-go, been looking for alternatives meaning I did not read the market for these guys correctly.  On the upside, at least I picked guys who were highly valued and valued well above their pre-draft rankings.  So there's that as a consolation prize.

SUMMARY

Here's a hot take: I am really not very good with mock drafts. I either draft the entirely wrong guys (2023) or project the guys who won't even be there when I get to that pick (2022). Despite my complaining, the Guardians tend to do better than me. Duh, they're professionals and I am just a fan.

So, when I do a mock draft...realize that it is going to be wrong.  Ahhh, I feel a lot better now.

2025 Guardians Amateur Draft - Part 8 - Finding 3rd Day Hidden Gems Part 2 - Third Day High School Catchers

INTRODUCTION

So, you may ask, why am I talking about drafting HS catchers on the 3rd day of the draft?

Three reasons:

• I believe that the college catching prospects don't line up, at all, based on talent, with where our draft slots are.  Each one would likely be a significant overdraft if we were able to get them and I just don't see that they are worth that, given the talent in the draft at each of those slots.  Obviously, if a guy drops significantly we might draft them in the first 10 rounds, but that applies to all draft prospects who drop significantly. 
• I believe that the Guardians will look at the failures they have had with 3rd day college catchers and not want to go there again.
• I believe that the Guardians are disappointed with the development of their international catcher signees which, in the past few years, they emphasized with zero success in producing even marginal prospects.
• I believe they are excited about the one 3rd day catching prospect they drafted in the past 4 years, Logun Clark (see below).

BACKGROUND

HS catchers are a tough pick in the draft, especially if teams spend a 1st or 2nd day pick on one.   Blowing a top 10 round pick on someone with only a low % chance of making the majors is difficult to swallow with the bonuses top 10 round picks are paid today.  

Let's look at some numbers.

HS catchers drafted by the Guardians between 2021-2024: 

• In 2023 they drafted Ralphy Velasques with their 1st round pick but quickly moved him off catcher putting him first to 1B and then, when they found he was athletic enough, to LF.  
• In 2022 they drafted Logun Clark in the 16th round.  I have watched him develop and he is the reason I am suggesting that the Guardians draft a couple of more HS catchers on the 3rd day of the 2025 draft.

HS Catchers Drafted By All Teams in 2021-2024

Top 10 rounds (Days 1 and 2)  

• Rated HS catching prospects drafted: 10
• Rated signed: 10
• Unrated drafted: 4
• Unrated signed: 4

NOTE: So all 14 HS catchers drafted in the top 10 rounds in 2021-2024 signed

Day 3 (rounds 11-20)

• Rated HS catching prospects signed: 1
• Rated unsigned: 3
• Non-rated signed: 9
• Non-rated prospects unsigned: 3
• Rated not drafted: 18

CLEVELAND GUARDIANS ORGANIZATIONAL CATCHER DEPTH

Major Leagues

Bo Naylor - Naylor was a Guardians 1st round draft pick in . Based on what we know today, would make a great backup catcher on a WS-contending ML team.  He could survive as a starter on such a team IF he was, by far, the weakest hitter and a great defender.  Think Austin Hedges who could hit a little.

Farm System

1. Cooper Ingle - The darling of the fans and of prospect rankings, Ingle is a very good slap hitter who has shown only a small amount of power and whose defense is a work in progress.  Still, he is the best hitter of the catchers in the farm system. ETA to ML: 2026. He hits LH which is a preferred handedness for catchers.

2. Jacob Cozart - A surprise 2nd round pick last year, he is another LHH. I would have expected him to dominate with the bat this year but, in 149 AB in A+ he has a .610 OPS.  It is early in his career but he appears to be a wasted draft pick at this point with a ceiling of Austin Hedges. ETA 2027.

3. Kody Huff - Huff, a RHH, was acquired in the Cal Quantrill trade.  He is a marginal hitter, good defensive catcher.  It would be fair to say that he is Jacob Cozart but two years more advanced.  Still, he profiles to me as a ML backup.  ETA - 2025

4. Logun Clark - A surprise #3 on this list, he has an outstanding arm, throwing out 3 potential base stealers in one inning last year.  A strong RHH, he has some pop in his bat and is an extremely hard worker and mature beyond his years as he is becoming the primary catcher at Lynchburg this year.  While I love Logun Clark as a prospect, his position on this shows as much about how weak catching is in Cleveland's system as it does about his prospect status. However, Clark is the poster child for what I would like out of this draft, for the Guardians to draft a couple of HS catchers like or better than Clark on the 3rd day of the draft, just like they did with Clark in 2023. ETA - 2028

5. Hiverson Lopez - The top prospect signed by the Guardians in the 2025 international signing period, Lopez is the best catcher on the DSL teams.  ETA - 2029

6. All other catchers in the Guardians system appear to be organizational players

NOTE: The catching depth in our farm system is really bad right now as we really don't have any good catchers at Lynchburg or on the ACL team and only Ingle appearding, right now, as a potential ML starter being ready in the next few years.

POSSIBLE 3RD DAY DRAFTEES AMONG HIGH SCHOOL CATCHING PROSPECTS IN 2025

Top Tier

Top rated HS catchers go to college more often than they sign, especially since NIL money is so good in college right now.  However, as indicated above, the ones drafted in the top 10 rounds do tend to sign.  That being said, if any of the following HS catchers are available on the 3rd day AND are signable, I think you draft up to 2 of them.  Here is my ranking, in order of these guys.  

1. Trent Grindlinger

2. Omar Serna

3. Brayden Jaksa

4. Ty Harvey

5. Landon Hodge

6. Michael Oliveto

7. Taitn Gray (just because I think he is the one who clearly will be drafted earliest)

All of these catchers are rated high enough to go in the first 5 rounds and, as said above, high school catchers drafted early, like these guys, are one of the worst bets in the draft in terms of eventually making the majors. 

NOTE: If any of these guys drop to the 3rd day AND we can sign them for a reasonable bonus, I hope the Guardians draft one and then draft a second HS catcher from the 2nd tier (see below)  

Second Tier

A number of the following catchers may be drafted before the 3rd day but, assuming that none of the top tier guys are available and signable on the 3rd day, here is a list of HS catchers I would pick 2 from in our 10 3rd day draft picks. I have not rated them in any order but here are some of the guys I would be excited by if I saw a couple of them drafted by the Guardians on the 3rd day.

• Presley Courville
• Endo Infelise
• Cade McDade
• Peter Mershon
• Stow Rogers
• Quinn Schambow
• Josh Toole
• Cash Williams
• Jeter Worthley
• Alonzo Alvarez (participating in MLB draft combine)
• Brady Dallimore (participating in MLB draft combine)
• Jase Mitchell (participating in MLB draft combine)
• Owen Jenkins (participating in MLB draft combine)
• Diego Rosa (participating in MLB draft combine

The only reason I mention that the last 5 are in the combine (all the top tier HS catchers above are, as well) is because if a player wasn't open to signing a pro contract or if he was not yet quality enough to warrant a pro contract (scouts would let them know they need more development) then they wouldn't be at the combine, especially since every single one of these guys has a college scholarship offer at a big-time college baseball program.

SUMMARY

Look, the Guardians have been innovators in the draft, starting in 2021 with their college pitcher draft and through 2023, with their extreme slap hitter draft.  Spending 2 picks on the 3rd day on HS catchers makes perfect sense as the type of outside-the-box thinking the Guardians are becoming famous for in the draft.  I also believe the following:

• This draft is deep in HS catching prospects of the type you could grab on the 3rd day.
• There are a number of cases where top colleges have signed 2 of these HS catchers, meaning only one is likely to play with the other red-shirted
• The current situation in the transfer portal could mean that an opening that a HS catcher saw at the college they committed to might be compromised by that college signing 1 or more advanced college catchers out of the portal.

There are a number of good HS catchers (probably many more than the ones on the above lists) that will be available on the 3rd day of the draft.  Given how low the odds are of a 3rd day draftee making the majors anyway, and the early success they have seen with Logun Clark, I could see this picking up a couple of these guys on the 3rd day being a really smart play by the Guardians.

2025 Guardians Amateur Draft - Part 7 - Finding 3rd Day Hidden Gems Part 1 - Power Hitters

 OK, now that we have completed the rationale for my mock draft of days 1 and 2 of the 2025 draft, time to look ahead to day 3 and gems we might find there.  

This year I want to do some Guardians-like and some anti-Guardians things.  So here is what I am looking for on the 3rd day>  

• POWER HITTERS - I want to look for HS and college power hitters.  Due to the 2022 and 2023 slap hitter drafts and how we handle international signings the lower part of our minors is scattered with guys who have, at best, 45 grade power. I might look for one college catcher in this group, as well, with some ability to play other positions.
• HS PITCHER FLYERS - While this is very Guardians' like I want to find as many guys like Jacob Remily (2024), Keegan Zinn 2023) and Jacob Bresnahan (2023) guys as possible.  Even the wonderful 2021 college pitcher draft has yet to produce, from rounds 11-20, a single guy who has got a foothold on AAA yet.  While that is unsurprising for guys drafted that low, it points out how difficult it is for guys drafted on the 3rd day to even make it
• HS CATCHERS - We have had so much bad luck with drafting college catchers and signing international amateur free agent catchers that I wanted to try something different.  Logun Clark (HS catcher, 16th round, 2023) is probably the most exciting catching prospect we have in the low minors.  He is not a great prospect, not even making top 30 lists for Cleveland and HS hitters take a long time to develop.  Still, I think it is time to draft a number of HS catchers on day 3 and let the developmental process sort them out.
• COLLEGE RELIEVERS - This is a great way to fill up the 3rd day of the draft as the Guardians, once again, showed in 2024.  In fact, 57.5% (23/40) of their day 3 draft picks in the past 4 years have been college relievers.  This year I would like to see 2/10 of those picks being college pitchers.  
• INJURED COLLEGE PITCHERS - The Guardians have gone down this path before. signing guys coming off TJ surgery or other arm injuries that kept them out mostly or completely, from competing in their draft year.  Coaxing 1-2 of those guys who would have gone in the second day of the draft if healthy would be a big win, especially toward the end of the 3rd day

As I am focused right now on college power hitters, here are some I would like to see the Guardians consider on the 3rd day.

POWER HITTERS

• Boston Smith, Sr.,  LHH, Wright State, C, INF, OF - Playing in a weak conference and catching full-time for the first time, he hit 26 HRs.  In the previous 2 years in summer ball and in college, he played every position except 1B and CF so he has some versatility.
• John Bay, Sr., CF, RHH, Austin Peay - Bay was one of my dark horses for the Guardians to draft late in the 2024 draft.  He went undrafted and returned to college where he just turned 24.  As a centerfielder who hit 24 and 22 HRs and stole 11 and 12 bases in 2024 and 2025, respectively, I think, as a 3rd day pick he makes a lot of sense, even if he did play in a weak conference. He also hit 4 HRs and had a .900 OPS in the Cape last summer.  I love that he stayed at Austin Peay instead of entering the portal last year.
• Judd Utermark, 2B/3B , RHH, Jr. Ole. Miss - Hit 22 HR this year but had 92 K in only 252 ABs so teams may be scared off from drafting him on the first 2 days due to the excessive swing and miss.  Might be a good 3rd day pick
• Eddie Madrigal, LHH,  1B, RF, C, RS-Jr., St. Mary's (CA) - Hit 21 HRs playing mainly 1B but has played RF, CF, LF and C in the past.  Missed a lot of time due to injuries and may just be rounding into form.
• Easton Amundsen, Sr., LHH, 1B/RF/LF,  Metro State University (Denver) - The DII HR leader (34) this spring, if the Guardians can sign him as a NDFA and just throw him out there and see what he has, it would be interesting.  The Guardians have a lot of slap hitters but not many power hitters so I would like to see them get as many as possible in the draft.

As far as college and HS pitchers and HS catchers go, I will cover them in a later post once I do a little more research.

2025 Guardians Amateur Draft - Part 6 - How I got to my Mock Draft 1.0 - The Guardians 6th-10th round picks

 As I head down the backstretch of day 2 picks. here are my picks and rationales for the Guardians picks in rounds 6-10 of my mock draft.

Sixth Round Slot 192 

Dennis pick: Zane Taylor, RHP UNC Wilmington

Rationale: In the 2024 draft the Guardians selected college senior pitcher Caden Favors in the 6th round, partially to save money for HS flyer picks later in the top 10 rounds (Sullivan and Mobley).  Taylor, also a college senior, will be a hot commodity in this draft. He is a college senior with very good control (55 grade) whose fastball jumped up this year (60).  I moved him up to the 6th round because I believe he will be gone after that, despite the fact that Antonio Jean may be a better long-term pitching prospect.  The goal here is to draft a couple of pitchers in the first 10 rounds who are college seniors to save money. College seniors historically get lower bonuses because they have no leverage to return to school.  This saved money can then be used to sign other prospects to overslot bonuses.  The thought process for drafting guys like Taylor is that these college seniors with good control may still have some upside and to get them into the Guardians FSFCP to maximize that upside.  Looking at Taylor's grades, he fits into what Cleveland would likely be looking for: college pitchers with good control and some potential left in their fastball development. FYI, in 3 drafts before 2024 they took 2 college junior pitchers and Tommy Hawke so there is precedent for them drafting college pitchers in this spot is there.

Seventh Round Slot 222

Dennis pick: Antoine Jean, LHP - Houston

Rationale: Ditto for what I said about Taylor, Antoine Jean is a college senior, one of the highest ranking college seniors in the draft and maybe the best college senior pitcher available.  He flourished as a long reliever at Houston this year and his fastball ticked up a couple of MPH.  He is the perfect college senior sign to throw into the Guardian's' FSFCP and see what comes out the other side AND save some money for overslot bonuses later.

Eighth Round Slot 222

Dennis pick: Henry Allen, IF - NW Florida JC

Rationale: I said that the two areas I wanted to add this year was power hitting and college pitching.  Since I don't like HS hitters, I thought I would do something very un-Guardians-like and dip into the junior college ranks for one of the best power hitting prospect in that group, but a guy who doesn't check enough boxes to be included in draft prospect rankings. Allen is the classic boom-or-bust pick but likely will sign for a slot or a little below bonus and checks the box for adding another intriguing college power bat into the organization and, as a JUCO guy, one who would likely be a year or two behind Fischer, Turley and even Ralphy Velasquez.

Nineth Round  Slot 282 

Dennis pick: Jake Knapp - RHP - University of North Carolina

Rationale:  OK, if you follow the draft closely you might start to get the thought that I have lost my mind.  Knapp is a 24 year old college JUNIOR whose biggest assets are that he is a winner (14-0 this year, including winner the opener in North Carolina's super regional last night and a guy who has very good control.  To me, he is very comparable to Austin Peterson from 2022 and, yest, he should be readily signable due to his age, although he does have college eligibility left.  He would also give us another draftee who we could sign for underslot, giving us more money for HS flyers later.

Tenth Round Slot 312 

Dennis pick: Marcelo Harsch - RHP - Seton Hall Prep

Rationale: After the 9th round you might have been thinking, 'What is Dennis saving money for?'  Well, just like 2024 with Chase Mobley, there will be a number of quality HS pitching prospects left at this point who will require well overslot bonuses.  The Guardians should have saved enough money to get Harsch and probably 1-2 other HS players (power hitters or pitchers) on the 3rd day of the drafted, similar to Jacob Bresnahan in 2023.  

SUMMARY

I think Mike Tyson said 'Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face' or something like that.  My mock draft, like all mock drafts, is subject to one major things: guys who I want being available when I suggest the Guardians draft them AND there being good HS or JUCO prospects available to spend the money I saved by not going overbudget much in the first 2 days of the draft.  Like all mock drafts, mine is a house of cards, being even more so as I selected their picks through the top 10 rounds of the draft.

In any case, this gives you an idea into my thought process in doing my mock draft.  Hope you enjoyed reading it as much as I enjoyed doing my mock draft.

Now on to watch some college playoff baseball.

Go Guardians!