It Would Be Really Nice If.....

 ...Manzardo keeps hitting

...JRod and Noel make signficant contributions starting tonight.

...Luis Ortiz at least is as effective as Ben Lively

...Jose Ramirez is not playing hurt.

...Gabriel Arias' stats this year are those that of a little better than a solid ML regular at 2B

...the bullpen guys who are hurt get back soon and perform well

...Triston McKenzie still has some magic left in him and gives us solid appearances out of the bullpen this year.

...Santana has an above (for him) average April and May and then becomes his average self from June-October.

...Lane Thomas plays like the 2023 and not the 2024 regular season version

...we build such a strong team that Fry and Schneeman, for years, are the best 12th and 13th position player (utility) guys in baseball...starting this year.

...Ryan Webb and Doug Nikhazy get to contribute to significant wins this year.

...Chase DeLauter, Juan Brito and Travis Bazzana all contribute in some way this year to the Guardians having a great year.

One in the books. 161 to go in the regular season

 Some quick thoughts about today's game:

1. MLB.TV not having the game on radio or TV at the beginning?  Inexcusable.  I didn't call today but, in the past, I have gotten only lip service from their customer service.  

2. Ben Lively is a horse.  He took the ball and, except for one mistake, he pitched as well as he could.

3. Herrin and Smith looked dominant.   Gaddis and Sewald made pitches when they needed to.  Clase struggled but, as some have said, in the past he struggled early in the season, if he did struggle.

4. Manzardo showed glimpses of being THAT guy, the one who protects Jose and will be around for the whole time Jose is here, doing exactly the same thing.  Manzo was GREAT today and, as he showed, especially late in ST, it is likely not just a hot streak.  

5. Arias may or may not 'get it'.  My hope is that the veterans on this team both take him under their wing and call him out when they need to.  I hope, and think, his talent may come out just by being forced to play hard every second of every game.  

5. Jose may struggle as he gets used to the way things are this year.  But I am sure he will come around.

6. I really wish Kwan would just pull a Jose and sign an extension to keep the good vibes going.  I worry he really wants to play somewhere closer to home instead of just giving in and making Cleveland his home.  Certainly, he is a great talent leading off and in LF.

7. All of the rest of the guys kept their heads above water today and that, as much as Manzardo, was the reason the Guardians won this game.

8. I am wondering, after winning this game, if the Guardians will hold off on Bibee so he can pitch 2 games in California.  

9. It was a very satisfying, professional win.  A win where they showed resiliency like a winning team would do.

10.  This is the kind of win that makes the fans want to come back for more...on Saturday, hopefully.  

Go Guards! 

Thoughts About The Season and My Prediction for the Guardians 2025 Season

 Last year I predicted that the Guardians would go 61-101.  They obviously did much better.  However, aside from the rainbow and unicorn fans, no one could have really predicted a 92-69 season.  In fact, a lot of writers predicted the Guardians would have a losing season.

This year there are so many variables I am going to do things a little differently.  I have a record in mind that I consider the most likely outcome.  It is based on some things going bad and some things going right.  I am also predicting a record if a number of crucial things all go wrong and a record if most of those crucial things go right.  I will then go through, position by position, what are the scenarios that could contribute to the best, worst and most likely records.  None of these position situations will lead, by itself, to the best, worst or most likely record.  They are all just contributing factors.

Most Likely Record: 84-78 (worst case 70-92, best case 92-70)

CATCHER

Best Case: Naylor and Hedges stay healthy all year and Naylor significantly improves his offense compared to 2024 and it helps them reach the best case scenario.

Most likely case: Combined, they miss 50 games during the year due to injury, meaning Dom Nunez is on the roster for 25 games which feeds into them having the likely record predicted above.

Worst case: Naylor misses 80 games due to injury and Hedges misses 20 games with it being likely that Nunez starts 35-40 games and it feeds into the whole thing falling apart where the total breakdown leads to the worst case scenario.

FIRST BASE/DH

Best case: Manzardo becomes a star, Santana maintains at a level that allows him to be functional, at least.  In addition, Noel and Jones fill in at 1B and DH, as needed, in case of injuries.

Most likely case: Manzardo is functional, Santana starts to show his age but holds it together for most of the season and Noel and Jones contribute as above.

Worst case: Manzardo is a little below average @ DH, Santana shows his age and the Guardians keep going to the 2 of them instead of pivoting to Noel and Jones.

SECOND BASE

Best case: Arias plays great defense and hits enough and does enough right things to hold the job this year and hit 12-15 HRs w/o sabotaging the offense too much.

Most likely case: Second base is a revolving door with us trying a bunch of guys until we settle on one by the beginning of July and that player produces enough to allow us to be buyers at the deadline.

Worst case: Arias struggles and the go with him until June, then pivot to Brito who still isn't ready with both of them doing so bad we lose games that we should win.  This position does nothing to stop us from having a mediocre record and becoming sellers at the deadline and start circling the wagons for 2026

SHORTSTOP

Best case: Rocchio continues to show offensively what he showed in the playoffs and his defense becomes gold-glove caliber

Most likely case: Rocchio oes his job and holds down the position all year and becomes a slightly above average offensively.  His defense is above average.

Worst case: Rocchio performs like last season with fewer brain farts than last year but still improving enough to move the needle on this team.

THIRD BASE

Best case: Ramirez repeats his 2024 season numbers and actually becomes a little more selective at the plate as the people hitting behind him provide him better protection than even Naylor did last year.

Most likely case: Ramirez presses somewhat, knowing he has little protection in the lineup.  This causes his walk rate to drop and for him to become a 30 RH, 30 SB guy 

Worst case: Ramirez presses A LOT and his production does down to 25 HR, 35 SB and his walk rate plummets as compared to previous years and he chases at a high rate that at any point in his career.  While he doesn't kill the team he doesn't help offset other problem areas.

LEFT FIELD

Best case: Kwan starts off hot like last year, avoids injury and has his best season yet. stealing less bases because Ramirez is hitting second.

Most likely case: Kwan repeats his overall numbers from 2024 but produces at a more even rate through the year.

Worst case: Kwan repe: ats his injury profile from 2024 and we struggle finding a leadoff hitter when he is out.  Overall his performance is very good but not enough to move the needle in a positive direction or offset deficits elsewhere

CENTER FIELD

Best case: Thomas plays CF and hits 3rd most of the season and returns to his 2023 form.  We don't trade him at the deadline because we are in the thick of the playoff races.

Most likely case: The Guardians hedge their bets and trade Thomas at the deadline because they feel they can backfill his production which fall, relatively evenly, back to his 2024 numbers.

Worst case: Thomas' production falls off and we are forced to continue playing him until, by July, we reverst to CF by committee.

RIGHT FIELD

Best case; Jones and Noel split RF with each getting time at DH and at first base.  They combine for 40 HRs

Most likely case: Noel struggles a bit with chase and Jones only partly returns to 2023 form, meaning the 2 of them are good only for 25-30 HRs while splitting RF.

Worst case: We DFA Jones after it becomes apparent his 2024 season was closer to what he can produce.  Brennan and Noel share RF with the same mediocre production they both showed in 2024.

STARTING ROTATION

Best case: Williams and Bibee have great seasons, Ortiz, Lively and Allen hold their own and give us a lot of innings to save the bullpen. Bieber comes back strong replacing the weakest starter in mid-June and Means does the same by August 1st.

Most likely case: Bibee and Williams are solid, Lively gives us innings but the #4/5 positions are problematic and cause us to overuse the bullpen.

Worst case: One of Bibee or Williams misses extensive time, Lively fizzles by the all-star break and Ortiz and Allen are out of the rotations by the Middle of May.  The starters put so much pressure on the bullpen because they can't give us innings that we become sellers at the deadline and trade both Bieber and Means.

BULLPEN

Best case: Last year's star relievers give us 90% of the success they had last year and Walters, Stephan, Sabrowski, Junis and Seward give us solid production, filling in where needed along with other prospects like Cantillo, Webb and Enright.  The bullpen is almost as good as last year with a little loss at the top but better production at the bottom of the pen.

Most likely case: Some of the top guys regress, some of the bottom guys don't perform but we still have a top 10 bullpen in baseball.

Worst case: Two of our top 4 relievers go down with injuries from overuse last year, Sewald struggles and the young guys produce enough to keep the bullpen's head above water but we are only a top 15 bullpen in baseball.

BENCH/CALLUPS

Best case: Brito hits the ground running, DeLauter produces in Aug/September, Bazzana puts himself in the conversation for a September callup similar with him and DeLauter putting themselves in position to emulate Evan Carter for Texas a couple of years ago and helps us in the playoffs.  Martinez and Brennan provide needed, quality help when called upon.

Most likely case: DeLauter doesn't play, Bazzana doesn't get a callup and we get average production from Martinez and Brennan when called up.  Brito provides a splash when he is called up but comes back to ML average offensively for a second baseman by the end of the season.

Worst case: Like last year, we get little help from the minors except for veteran guys who played here last year and their production doesn't move the needle on the team's success.

SUMMARY

There you have it.  As said above, a lot of things have to come togehter for the Guardians to compete.  The question people need to be asking themselves is whether what we saw from Detroit and Kansas City was a harbinger of them becoming division champions or whether they will come back to earth in 2025.  Also, does Minnesota come back with a vengeance this year after the disappointing end in 2024 and can that be enough to take the division with the other 3 contenders self-destructing just enough that the AL Central doesn't get a wild card this time around.

I don't think the Guardians go to the playoffs unless they win the division and their winning the division will have to come from them hitting on a lot of best case scenarios while their AL Central opponents hit the middle ground of their predicted success.

For those fans that like to dream big, if we can produce offensively like we did in the first half of the season and then get DeLauter, Brito and Bazzana producing in the last 2 months and Bieber and Means pitch well this year and our bullpen looks as solid as last year, albeit with some different guys this time around, I think we could go to and maybe sneak a 1954 Giants-like WS title run in on the Dodgers.  How fitting would that be for the Guardians to win the title that everyone thought they would win in 1954, just 71 years later.

One final note: For the Guardians to attain the worst case scenario record, they would have to be big sellers at the deadline, potentially off-loading Thomas, Junis, Hedges, Santana, Sewald and even Bieber and Means if they fall out of the race or on the distant edges of the WC race by the all-star break.

Nolan Jones: How Can One Player Be Involved In Two Moronic Trades by Cleveland...2 1/2 Years Apart?

 Back in November of 2022 I was livid.  

Cleveland Guardians Perspective: Antonetti and Chernoff, you are freakin' idiots and total incompetents at making trades

The Guardians (actually the Indians, then) made a trade right before the roster freeze date in November.  Cleveland traded Nolan Jones for Juan Brito.  Here are the particulars of that deal: 

o Juan Brito was Colorado's 30th best prospect, who had played in low A in 2022. He was R5 eligible and had to be rostered or he could have been lost in the R5 draft.  Colorado HAD to trade him or risk losing him, and they really didn't want to roster a player at low A who would likely run out of options before he became a ML player. To add insult to injury, Brito's defense was bad, he had no base stealing ability and, at that point, showed very little power with his only + skill being that he could take a walk.  So he had to develop A LOT just to be a ML player.

o Nolan Jones was Cleveland's 7th best prospect who had made his ML debut in 2022. Jones, obviously, was already on the Cleveland 40-man roster.  The Guardians had given Jones a handful of games early in 2022 but then sent him to the minors for the rest of the year. even though he didn't do bad in his time in Cleveland. He was a ML ready power hitting outfielder.

o At the time of the trade the Guardians had a lot of middle infielders in the low minors.  There was no need there.  The Guardians chose Oscar Gonzalez over Jones, which is why they traded Jones, thinking he was expendable.  That didn't work out for them.

o In 2023 Jones finished 4th in the NL ROY voting and finished with 20 HR and 20 SB and an OPS of .953. Will Brennan played RF for the Guardians and finished with 5 HRs and an OPS of .655.  Brito split the season between High A and AA, with a cup of coffee at AAA.

We did not have to trade with Colorado. We had the Rockies over a barrel and instead of leveraging that, we actually gave them a deal, giving them our #7 prospect for their #30 prospect, a ML ready prospect for one that was likely 3 years away.  

I think you can see why I was livid at the time.  We obviously didn't have an excess of power hitting outfielders yet we traded Jones away and he immediately raked in Colorado and, in return, got a bad defensive infielder with no speed and little power who had to be rostered even though he wasn't going to help the ML team for years.

Fast forward to March 22, 2025.  

The Guardians traded Tyler Freeman to Colorado for Nolan Jones.  Here is the situation surrounding the deal today

o We needed a second baseman after trading Andres Gimenez and Freeman was winning that competition over Gabriel Arias and, you guessed it, Juan Brito who was just sent to AAA after losing the competition.  

o We already had a Noel/Brennan platoon in RF so while we just gave up Freeman in the trade, Jones also took Brennan's spot on the roster.

o We have no idea how Jones' back, that bothered him all of 2024 is doing.

o This trade GAVE the starting second base job to Arias, even though his penchant for not hustling, striking out and hitting ground balls has appeared identical this spring to what it was over the last 2 seasons.  Arias didn't earn this position and, despite the rhetoric, he appears to be the same player.  I have to note that I watched a lot of Arias highlights from winter ball and, IMO, there was something 'off' with how he was treated after he had a big hit or hit a HR.

Hey, I am not against re-acquiring Jones.  However, not at the cost of the guy who clearly won the second base competition this spring.  

Look, Tyler Freeman hasn't proved ANYTHING in the majors but giving the 2B job to Arias and pushing Brennan off the roster and bringing in Jones as a platoon OFer, likely taking ABs away from Noel doesn't make sense to me.  AND THAT IS IF JONES IS EVEN HEALTHY!

So, we have now, in the course of 2 years, made 2 bad trades involving Nolan Jones.  The first contributed to killing the 2023 season and prompting a deadline sell-off.

We'll see what the most recent trade does but, as I have said before, if we don't have a great start to the season we could be a seller at the deadline in 2025, too.  IMO this trade didn't keep us from being out of the race by the time Fry, Stephan, Biever and Means come back.  That was the kind of trade we needed to make...and this one wasn't 'it'.

Just as livid today as I was back in Nov. 2022.  

• 
  

Guardians Top 100 Prospects - Opening Day 2025

Looking at this list, the Guardians have one of the deepest farm systems I can ever remember.  There are so many breakout guys on this list, all the way down to #100, it is unreal.  I have added some comments regarding why I rated guys where I did.  If I have missed anyone, please let me know.  Here we go:

1. Jaison Chourio - Huge breakout candidate this year.

2. Angel Genao - I am starting to buy into the hype

3. Travis Bazzana - Just don't see a single spark of anything yet

4. Chase DeLauter

5. Ralphy Velasquez - on the strength of him being to play the OF

6. Welbyn Francisca

7. Braylon Doughty

8. CJ Kayfus

9. Parker Messick - on the strength of his increased velocity

10. Joey Cantillo

11. Andrew Walters

12. Cooper Ingle - I see this hit tool but he has to be + at defense, too

13. Juan Brito - his defense is so bad that he has almost no position

14. Joey Oakie

15. Doug Nikhazy

16. Matt Wilkinson

17. Gabriel Rodriguez

18. Chase Mobley

19. Jonathon Rodiguez

20. Jacob Cozart - I have not bought into the hype...yet

21. Alfonsin Rosario - Better than I thought

22. Hiverson Lopez

23. Robert Arias - I think he is undervalued at this point

24. Franco Aleman

25. Alex Mooney

26. Ryan Webb

27. Austin Peterson

28. Khalil Watson

29. Cam Sullivan

30. Logun Clark - His power and arm strength make him a cut above

31. Jackson Humphries

32. George Valera

33. Aaron Davenport - I think he will continue to break out this year

34. Juneiker Caceres

35. Heins Brito

36. Erik Sabrowski

37. Michael Kennedy

38. Josh Hartle

38A. Cody Huff - Forgot him.  Still not a highly ranked prospect but a chance that he will see the majors later this year or in 2026 if we are not competitive for the AL Central.

39. Daniel Espino

40. Luis Merejo

41. Jose Devers

42. Petey Halpin

43. Justin Campbell - still has a chance to be Rule 5 w/o ever throwing a professional pitch.  That is mind-dlowing.

44. Nic Enright

45. Aiden Major

46. Tommy Mace - Break out potential this year

47. Esteban Gonzalez

48. Rafe Schlesinger

49. Luis Garcia

50. Yordys Valdez

51. Milan Tolentino

52. Dayan Frias

53. Trenton Denholm - Break out potential this year

54. Magnus Ellerts

55. Dylan DeLucia

56. Jacob Zibin - Now is his time to shine and sprint up prospect lists

57. Alonzo Richardson

58. Shawn Rapp

59. Will Dion

60. Yorman Gomez

61. Tanner Burns

62. Micah Pries - He is clawing his way back into borderline prospect status

63. Alaska Abney

64. Zach Jacobs

65. Andrew Misaszek

66. Nick Mikolajchak

67. Allan Hernandez - A dark horse to sprint up this list this year

68. Bradley Hanner

69. Jorge Burgos

70. Robert Lopez

71. Maick Collado

72. Zane Morehouse

73. Joe Lampe - Now or never for him

74. Guy Lipscomb

75. Jonah Advincula

76. Hunter Stanley 

77. Rodney Boone

78. Davis Sharpe

79. Mason Hickman

80. Edelis Perez

81. Jay Driver

82. Ryan Cesarini

83. Garrett Howe

84. Christian Knapczyk

85. Caden Favors

86. Melkis Hernandez

87. Cam Schuelke

88. Donovan Czak

89. Jose Cedeno

90. Manuel Mejias

91. Alberto Mendez

92. Yerlin Luis

93. Jose Pirela

94. Evelio Hernandez

95. Jogly Garcia

96. Keegan Zinn

97. Jacob Remily

98. Steven Perez

99. Christian Cairo 

100. Tommy Hawke

Thoughts For March 3rd - About Halfway Through Spring Training

 Some random thoughts for Monday morning:

• I still believe that their plan revolves around "on a wing and a prayer" defined as: If you do something on a wing and a prayer, you do it hoping that you will succeed, although you are not prepared enough for it

• The Guardians need to have a fast start to the season.  As such, I don't think they should still be experimenting during the season.  I feel they need to make all decisions so that they give themselves the best chance to hit the ground running.  The rest of this post will be colored by this opinion.

• Gavin Wiliams did well in his spring debut.  Remember that he was rolling last spring until he got injured.  If he can stay healthy all year he could provide us with stability in the rotation that could lessen the need for a superior offense and shorter games for the bullpen.  

• As I said at the beginning of spring training, the Guardians have 4 players on their 40 man roster who are out of options.  Here are my thoughts on each:

• Triston McKenzie - Neither of his starts have looked sharp.  In my opinion he is cooked as a starter and we need to spend the rest of spring training seeing if he can be a bullpen arm.  We have a little over 3 weeks left.  McKenzie 2025 looks EXACTLY like McKenzie 2024.  Get him to the bullpen and stop operating on a wing and a prayer with him, hoping that suddenly he finds it again.
• Sam Hentges - He is on the 60-day IL and is out for the season.  So he will not have to be sent to the minors this year and will enter spring training next year without having to be DFA'd...assuming there is no roster crunch this winter.
• Ben Lively - Unless catastrophe strikes him, Lively will open the season in the rotation, eating innings like he usually does.  Depending on the health and performance of the rotation, he may be a prime trade candidate at the deadline to bring in some offense that will likely be needed if the Guardians are still in the race at the end of July. 
• Gabriel Arias - Although I think Arias shows too much stubborness, too much lackadasical play and too little progress to have earned a starting job this spring, his competition for a utility spot, Schneeman and Martinez, have not helped themselves.  Therefore I think Arias will open the season as the utility player IF the Guardians are trying to put their best foot forward to start the season.  Arias, along with Freeman and Noel, have become the 3 clear choices to open the season on the Guardians bench, along with Hedges.
• Clearly, to me, Carlos Santana should not be hitting 2nd in the order.  His notoriously slow starts, his penchant to hit into double plays, his clogging of the bases when he gets on (as evidence in the 1st inning yesterday) and his poor production in this limited time as a #2 hitter in the majors tells me that starting him off as our #2 hitter is not putting our best foot forward to start the season.  Here are my thoughts on the other potential candidates to hit second behind Kwan:
• Juan Brito - Although I think his defense sucks, Brito, with his good batting eyes, doesn't ground into many double plays and so could provide Jose a lot of opportunities to come up with 2 guys on base.  This, to me, is the best choice, even though I have been saying for a long time that Brito's defense sucks.  Still, he is my first choice to start at 2B and hit second as he is the best choice to hit second.  If he can't handle hitting second, he has not place on this team and needs to go back to AAA for more work on his defense and his hitting.
• Brayan Rocchio - If he can handle this mentally I think he can handle it physically and would allow us not to play Brito and maybe put Freeman at second base and down in the order somewhere.  This is Freeman's make or break year so my heart tells me that Rocchio handling the #2 spot gives us the best chance of short and long term success.
• Tyler Freeman - I don't see him hitting second, even in a platoon situation.  Too many DP balls, not enough walks and, maybe worst, lots of doubles, meaning that they are likely to pitch around Ramirez if Freeman is just doubled...especially with our questionable cleanup situation.
• Gabriel Arias - No way for him.  I can see him being a real rally killer with his biggest offensive asset being the HR.  In either case, DP ground ball or HR, he isn't helping Jose be successful.  The only plus for him at #2 are his strikeouts.  And if can live with strikeouts at #2, you could put Noel there.
• Jose Ramirez - Maybe the best overall solution is one Jose would not like.  This a last ditch situation if everyone else screws up #2.  At least he will likely get pitched around less at #2, in my opinion, and will obviously get more plate appearances there than hitting third.  Plus, the rest of the guys in the lineup are better #3 hitters than cleanup hitters and having Thomas hit 3rd, Manzardo (or Noel) 4th and Santana 5th looks better to my gut.
• Jhonkensy Noel -I know, I know.  But hear me out.  Noel will get pitches to hit in front of Ramirez.  In addition, he is pretty athletic and only hit into one DP last year.  If he Ks after Kwan gets on it is much better than a Santana, Arias or Freeman mentally deflating GIDP.  I now it's unorthodox but I think we should give it a try if Brito and Rocchio don't work out.

• Nobody...and I mean NOBODY said not to trade Andres Gimenez and Josh Naylor.  To me they were prime trade chips this off-season to help this team in 2025.  However, so far, those trades are both looking sort of bad.
• Slade Cecconi has looked bad so far, making his 6+ ERA look more long-term than just growing pains.  He is clearly becoming a long-term project and getting him as the only player in the Naylor trade looks terrible.  If we continue to use him as a starter I doubt that he impacts our 2025 result.  If we move him to the bullpen he might not help us this year, either.  
• Luis Ortiz plus two decent pitching prospects for Horwitz seemed like a stretch to me.  Plus the Guardians FO harping so much on the one start Ortiz made against them last year seems kind of crazy to me.  Anybody can have 1 or 2 good starts during the season where everything is clicking.  The fact that the Pirates were willing to trade young, controllable talent for a positional tweener like Horwitz was a red flag to me.  Some people like to include him as part of the Gimenez trade b/c the return from Toronto for Gimi and Sandlin was pretty weak.  Even combining the Toronto and Pittsburgh trades doesn't save them UNLESS Ortiz excels.  It was a big gamble of a trade if you lump the two trades together.  Every fan should at least be willing to acknowledge that.

We have 3 weeks of spring training left.  It would be great to see this all come together for the Guardians' pitching staff and avoid injuries and bad performances.   As far as the hitting? Who knows.  But we can at least hope for improvements from all the guys we had last year and the avoidance of injuries so that we can dream of the same offensive start in 2025 that we got in 2024.

Guardians Trades from 2016-Present

 I was challenged on X to do something I had wanted to do for a while: look at how well the Guardians have been at making trades.

So let's take a look, going back to the 201-2016 off-season, at how the Guardians have done.

But first, here are the ground rules:

•  I will only look at trades that have TURNED OUT to be significant or was thought to be a significant trade at the time
• 'Significant', for me, is defined as a trade in which one of more of the players traded has a future impact on the team or, in a few rare cases, are prospects projected to have that impact.
• A few of the most recent trades I have graded (e.g., Civale/Manzardo) may change categories over time.
• If I have missed an important trade, I apologize. But I don't believe that a single trade will change the outcome of the analysis below.

With that being said, here goes:

Trades that the Guardians have won

• Andrew Miller for Heller, Clint Frazier, Justus Sheffeld, Feyereisen
• Hedges, Quantrill, Josh Naylor, Arias, Cantillo, Owen Miller for Clevinger, Greg Allen, Matt Waldron
• Ortiz, Hartle, Kennedy for Horwitz
• Clase, DeShields for Kluber
• Brandon Guyer for Lukes, Salinas

Trades that the Guardians have lost

• Carlos Santana, Jake Bauers for Encarnacion, Yandy Diaz and Cole Sulser
• Trevor Bauer for Scott Moss, Yasel Puig, Frnmil Reyes, Logan Allen, Victor Nova
• Horwitz, Mitchell for Gimenez, Sandlin
• Myles Straw for Yainer Diaz, Maton
• Juan Brito for Nolan Jones
• Justin Boyd, AJ Hajjar for Will Benson
• Junior Caminiero for Tobias Myers
• Kept Esteban Florial instead of Deyvison De Los Santos (not really a trade)
• Kody Huff for Cal Quantrill
• Jefry Rodriguez, Daniel Johnson, Andrew Monasterio for Yan Gomes
• Jean Segura, Khalil Watson for Josh Bell
• Patrick Sandoval for Eddie Rosario
• Kyle Dowdy, Leonys Martin for Willi Castro

Trades that are roughly even

• Kyle Manzardo for Aaron Civale
• Lindor, Carrasco for Gimenez, Rosario, Wolf, Greene
• Lane Thomas for Jose Tena, Alex Clemmey, Rafael Ramirez, Jr.
• Brad Hand, Adam Cimber for Francisco Mejia
• Scott Barlow for Enyel De Los Santos
• Alex Cobb for Jacob Bresnahan
• PTBNL for Myles Straw, cash and intentional bonus pool money
• Amed Rosario for Noah Syndergard

SUMMARY

Looking at this list, the Guardians have made their trade reputation on three trades: Clevinger trade, Andrew Miller trade and Clase/Kluber trade.  Potentially, the Civale/Manzardo trade may work out.  However, if you take a look at the bulk of the trades, the Guardians have not gotten the best or broken even on their trades.  Conventional wisdom would be that teams have to make good on at least half of their trades just to avoid getting worse, overall.  However, a small market club like Cleveland probably needs to do better than 50/50 as they can't make up for their trade or draft mistakes by signing expensive free agents.

The front office (including the managers and coaching staff) in Cleveland has been UNBELIEVALBE in putting together great teams and giving the fans an unbelievable product for a long time.  Looking at the results of the trades they have made in almost the last decade even makes their performance better because, frankly, they haven't been good at making trades, except for a few huge ones.

Spring Training Is Here!

 I love spring training.  I have been there a number of times, the last with a media pass so I could see all the minor leaguers play and do their drills.  It was really eye opening and was reinforcing to what I had seen on TV and read in bios and statistics. 

ML spring training under Vogt may turn out to be different under Vogt than it was under Francona.  Under Tito, you kinda knew who was going to make the team from the get go.  Under Vogt, I think it is/will be more of a true competition.  I think guys will get a chance to play their way on (or off) the roster.

So what should we look for this spring training?

• Assuming there are no injuries, the opening day lineup could be telling as I think the guys that start would have to play their way out of the starting lineup.
• The first guys off the bench in the first game will likely be guys who are either competing for platoon spots or are competing for bench spots.
• After the first two waves it will be minor leaguers and NRIs.  Never can tell much from that and garbage/scrub time (what they used to call it when I actually got into a HS basketball game) stats are totally meaningless.
• As far as the pitchers, you can tell absolutely nothing for the first two weeks of so in spring training games.  You are really looking for whether guys look healthy.  I remember 2 years ago McKenzie was getting lit up in a game against Milwaukee and you could see something was not right with him.  The rest is history.  Who starts doesn't matter.  They are just trying to get guys innings and I imagine they might even use their prime relievers in garbage innings becuase they were so overused last year and they might want those guys eased into tougher situations.
• Garbage time guys have a chance to make a good impression.  In most cases these are minor league guys who have done something to get a chance to dress with the Guardians.  Some of this could be need (e.g., bullpen help) or simply a rotation basis to have enough guys to cover all positions in all innings.  In any case it is a reward as those guys will get paid extra because they dress with the big league team as compared to the per diem they get for minor league camp.
• You probably don't but if you DO have access to the daily schedules for the minor leaguers you'll be able to tell both WHO the minor leaguers who will dress with the Guardians in that game in addition to information about which minor league players are injured and only doing rehab or conditioning.

In terms of injuries for players on the ML ST roster (40-man plus non-roster invitees), you are sort of at the mercy of the media unless you have access to the daily ML team reports, if one exists.

It's early, things can change.  But that does not mean that what happens early isn't important, if you know what to believe and that everything else is just circumstance/expedience.

Do We Need New Ownership?

"Dolan Is Cheap".  "Dolan needs to sell the team".  "You had a great team that made you money on in 2024.  You need to invest that money to make your team better in 2025."

We have read and heard some variation of these quotes for, literally, years in Cleveland.  

First it was the Yankees who we HAD to spend money to keep up with.

Then it was us trading our free agents-to-be because we knew we couldn't sign them.

Then it was the Dodgers.

And, most recently, comparisons are starting to come up regarding what Cleveland is doing compared to its competitors in the AL Central and that we are not even keeping up, talent-wise, with them.

So do we need new ownership int Cleveland?

My short answer is NO and here are the reasons why:

• Owning a baseball team in Cleveland is an acquired taste.  You have to be able to understand that opening day is a sellout and the second game in that opening series could have 10,000 people at it.  
• You have to understand that the Browns can go 3-14 but there will likely still be more conversation in the media and on social media about them than about the Guardians.
• You have to understand that the 455 is a thing in the past and that it will take a lot to get fans that excited about their baseball team...and it may never happen.
• You have to know that winning the Yankee way is impossible in Cleveland and that, like it or not, you have to play around the edges and hope your stars align...every year!
• You have to know that your best stars are likely going to want to play in bigger markets and that it's OK, just like it's OK if you trade those stars before they walk as free agents, even if the fans hate you for it.
• You have to know that investing in the best free agents is beyond your means, based on what revenue you are making in this small market.
• Finally, you have to understand that getting your subordinates to work under these conditions AND be successful is nearly impossible so any amount of money you have to invest to keep them here, you invest.

To be the owner of the Cleveland Guardians is to live with the idea that putting a good product on the field every year is the victory, not winning the World Series.  It's to excel when mediocrity is the annual likely outcome and it is that you have to give your team resources to do what they need to do without giving resources to do what the fans want them to do.  It's about trusting your people, staying out of their way, especially in public, and being the wallet that feeds the engine of this organization.  It is about never skimping where it really matters: amateur talent acquistion, trade acquitisiton and, especially, player development.

While I would love to have the deep pocket ownership groups in NY and LA, it has been well-documented that those teams bring in revenue at a pace that will never happen in Cleveland.  

Would I like to have an owner who will throw money around like it is nothing?  Sure.  But that isn't going to happen.

While he is far from perfect, Paul Dolan is an owner who gets the realities, is not frustrated by then,  that can survive in Cleveland and, in fact, under his leadership and that of his executives, thrive in their professional league.   That's something that the 3-14 Browns can't currently say, is it?

I Was Thinking About Our Roster...

 ...and I have some concerns.

In the past I have posted about dead space on the roster.  This includes two types of players:

• Players who are injured and won't be able to play on opening day
• Players who have zero chance of impacting the major league team this year.

You need 26 players on your opening day roster.  If the total of the above two categories is even close to 26 AND your 40-man roster is full, then any player you add to the 40 man roster requires removing a player from your 40-man unless:

• A player is taken off the 40 man roster and placed on the 60-day IL.
• A player is traded for the player you are adding to the 40 man roster

If you have an open spot on your 40 man roster (the Guardians roster is now full) you can add an additional player to your roster.  

In the recent past the Guardians have used this spot as a revolving door.  That is, they add a guy who they don't care if they lose to the 40-man to fill a role at the end of the 26-man roster.  Then, when they need a roster space (e.g., when they have used a RP/SP who won't be available for a few games) they can just DFA the player they added to fill the hole, populating that spot by another player who would be useful to the team at that time.  

So why is this important? Not counting their top 9 players, top 5 SP and top 8 relievers, the Guardians used 12 other position players and 15 other pitchers.  So, yes, having open spots on your roster to do this revolving door is crucial as injuries happen.

...and, why do dead spots on your roster hurt?  Because the more dead spots you have on your roster the fewer players you have to choose from without dipping into the AAAA player pool like the Guardians tend to do to fill these gaps.

So let's talk about the dead spots on the roster.  These guys are on the 40 but will not make the 26-man roster on opening day due to injury or just not being ready

• Shane Bieber (injury, out 1/2 the season, 60 day DL candidate)
• Daniel Espino (injury, out half the season and likely not ready for the ML yet, anyway, NOT 60 day DL candidate as it would start his service time clock)
• Sam Hentges (injury, likely out for the entire season, 60 day DL candidate)
• Trevor Stephan (injury, likely out for opening day, likely not 60 day DL candidate)
• David Fry (injury, likely 60 day DL candidate)
• Petey Halpin (not ready for big leagues in 2025)

This means that there are 34 'live' spots on the 40 man roster (4 60-day DL, 2 not ready for ML).  

In addition, the following players on the 40 man cannot be sent to the minors without passing through waivers as they are out of minor league options:

• Gabriel Arias
• Triston McKenzie
• Ben Lively
• Sam Hentges (already out for the season)

So, right now we have more than enough position players, except for catcher, where we have only the 2 who will be on the opening roster (Naylor, Hedges).

As far as pitchers the following guys who are available for the 26 man roster:

8 man relief staff - 10 guys (Aleman, Cecconi, Clase, Enright, Gaddis, Herrin, Sabrowski, Sewald, Smith, Walters)

5 man starting staff - 8 (Allen, Bibee, Cantillo, Lively, McKenzie, Nikhazy, Ortiz, Williams)

As I understand it, players can be placed on the 60 day DL once pitchers and catchers report for spring training in a little over a week.  

Thus we should be able to add guys on major league deals by just placing the above guys on the DL, meaning there still is a chance we could add quality players on major league deals. 

Again, if we do this we should just do this in free agency.  Looking at it that way, here is what I see:

Outfielders: There are ZERO free agent outfielders worth signing.  I would rather go with the kids than any of these guys.

Catchers: Luke Maile and Andrew Kizner appeal to me on minor league deals but I don't think we have room for Jason Stallings or James McCann as I don't see us carrying 3 catchers on our 26

Left handed relief pitchers: Andrew Chapin still stands out as the only guy I would add on a ML deal.  Guys like Genesis Cabrera (and every other LH reliever available in free agency) on a minor league deal makes sense to me.

Starting pitchers: Here's where it gets interesting.  I could easily see us going big in this area, even signing Pivetta (costs us a draft choice), Andrew Heaney or Kyle Gibson here.  I don't see anyone else on a major league deal but pretty much any other available FA SP on a minor league deal works for me.  With McKenzie being out of options, however, I just don't see the value of adding an innings eater at the expense of losing McKenzie to a DFA.

So, while it is the Guardians and they usually shop in the bargain basement, maybe they will take some of their salary savings and bring in a quality starting pitcher.

Again, no trades allowed.  We just traded away two of our best position players.  We shouldn't then go and trade prospects for new position players.  Also, no infielders as we are stocked there and trading for guys only means that prospects don't get a chance which is stupid if you are just trying to replace the production you gave away for almost nothing.

On A Wing And A Prayer

According to the Cambridge Dictionary, the functional definition of 'on a wing and prayer is:

"If you do something on a wing and a prayer, you do it hoping that you will succeed, although you are not prepared enough for it...SMART Vocabulary: related words and phrases. Hoping and hopefulness"

That, in my opinion, is how the Guardians have approached this off-season, on a wing and a prayer.

While I could hypothesize why they are doing what they are doing this off-season, there is no way for me to know if it is related to some or all of:

• analytics that they trust over common sense when applied to the players they have traded away
• financial constraints that are causing them to dump large (and even, where possible, small amounts of salary and spending (Guards Fest))
• a desire to create playing time to finally allow determination whether prospects are true major leaguers or just AAAA players

The Guardians have, in recent history, been a very shrewd and successful organization.  But this year, for whatever reason, they have taken it to a new level, doing things that appear, on the surface, to make the 2025 team weaker while putting more money into the pocket of the owner.

Instead of trying to guess the reasons behind them, let's take a look at the moves from this off-season and how they fit into the above functional definition

• Trading Eli Morgan for a prospect who is 3 years away from the major leagues - The Guardians are counting on mostly or completely untested rookies to give the same or better production as Morgan, while saving probably $400,000 in salary.
• Cancelling Guards Fest 2025 - This is the biggest puzzlement of all their off-season moves.  An event that may cost them $200,000 but brings such good will with fans in the time right before tickets go on sale, this is even hard to understand using the wing-and-a-prayer concept.  I guess they are hoping that they win and so things like this will be forgotten.
• Trading Gimenez and Sandlin to Toronto for Horwitz and Mitchell - The Guardians dumped Gimenez's salary and doubled down on their thoughts about the bullpen by throwing in Sandlin.  They plan to play a rookie at 2B, proposing that Juan Brito can replace Gimenez and give you the same or better overall production even though he is a bad defender and has no speed and, as a rookie, we have no idea will hit even as well as Gimenez.  This is a wing-and-a-prayer trade X2.
• Trading Horwitz for Ortiz, Hartle and Kennedy -On paper, this is a great trade, a Guardians' type trade.  Ortiz is a ML pitcher.  Hartle and Kennedy are good pitching prospects.  The only question about this trade is why Pittsburgh would trade even just Ortiz for Horwitz, who is the classic tweener, bad defense at 2B and not enough power for 1B...and he wasn't even a starter full time in Toronto.  So, while I love this trade, the Guardians are hoping, on a wing and a prayer, that Ortiz is the guy who shut them down last year rather than just a flash in the pan.
• Trading Naylor for Cecconi and a CB B pick. - In the biggest shocker of all this off-season, the Guardians traded their cleanup hitter who, legitimately, is the only guy on their roster who offers protection for Jose Ramirez in their batting order.  They are getting back Cecconi, and his 6+ ERA and a draft pick around #70 in the 2025 draft.  Realizing that if Arizona makes Naylor a QO in the 2025 off-season he will net them a pick around #35 in the 2026 draft, they have to be counting on Naylor being so bad that he won't be made a QO AND be worse than his replacement, Santana (See below).  That still doesn't clear up who will help cleanup and protect Ramirez this year, but I guess that will take care of itself...on a wing and a prayer.  They also have to be thinking that, on a wing and a prayer, that Cecconi can be fixed for the 2025 season and offer Cleveland very good pitching value for this and future seasons.  ANother wing and a prayer trade X2, I think.
• Signing Carlos Santana to a 1 year deal - Continuing with the wing and a prayer theme, the Guardians have to be thinking that Santana can approximate his production in 2024 AND that they can find protection for Ramirez in players on their roster.  This requires a big leap of faith as Santana was 38 last year in his career year and, at that, only hit cleanup a few times without great results, meaning he can't step into the lineup and replace Naylor, even though he will be making more than Naylor did.  So this signing is clearly a wing and a prayer.
• Not signing any other significant free agents - The key here is the word 'significant'.  For example, if they sign a LFer like Hayes or Profar, they have to move Kwan, meaning they are hoping, on a wing and a prayer, that he can handle CF or RF w/o weakening the overall defense, that has been weakened by losing Gimenez.  They might choose to double down on SP which would help the rotation but not the lineup, gambling, on a wing and a prayer, that their pitching would win games that their offense can't, similar to the way it happened early in 2024.  Again, expecting that  to happen 2 years in a row is planning for your season on a wing and a prayer.
• The possibility of making a trade - If trade right now for a platoon advantage you are hoping, on a wing a prayer, that your overall team is stronger than it was last year, even though you lost Gimenez and Naylor or only gained back Santana.  If you trade at the deadline, taking on salary from the savings this winter, you are hoping that your deadline deals work out.  In either case, you are giving up prospects for incremental (now) or short term (deadline) gains.  You are hoping, on a wing and prayer, that those deals are worth the prospects you would have to give up to make those deals. 

So, there you have it.  The Guardians whole off-season is built on a wing and a prayer.  These guys are good at putting a competitive team on the field but, sometimes, it just looks like they are making it harder and harder on themselves so they look like geniuses when they do it AGAIN.  That seems like a very hard way to go...a wing and a prayer way to go.

Thoughts For A Saturday: Roki Sasaki, International Signing Day, Guardians Moves: A Full Couple of Days

 OK, it has been an eventful couple of days in baseball.  So let's unpack:

• The Dodgers signed Sasaki - Maybe their most important signing in the last five years, Sasaki doesn't just give them winning now, he gives them affordable winnings for the next 6 years.  Literally, whoever signed Sasaki knew that they had both star power and team financial flexibility without invoking any deferrals of salary.

• The Guardians signed the players they had been linked to but, so far, no additional prospects, leaving slightly over $2 million left in their bonus pool

• They then traded that $2 million to Toronto along with Myles Straw and $3.75 million.  The Guardians will either get a player to be named later or cash.

These 3 events represented the entirety of the Guardians involvement in the international FA process.  Here is what we know in addition to what I suspect about the above events:

• The Guardians underspent their international pool by $2 million.  For a small market team they should never underspend their international budget or their draft budget.  It is the cheapest way to get quality talent into the organization

• The Guardians did a salary dump with Myles Shaw,  Ths saved them over $10 million over the next 3 years.  

• The Guardians spent $0 of the money they saved on dumping the Gimenez and Straw contracts on Toronto.  This is the most significant point here.  With the trades of Gimenez, Straw, Morgan and Sandlin, we lost a lot of talent without bringing much except for Ortiz back into the organization.  Thus, it would be hard to argue that the Guardians are a better team now than they were at the end of the 2024 regular season.

While people may do a victory dance for dumping Straw's salary, realize that even this move hurt our team next year that these moves are just salary-dumping, cost-saving moves if they don't come with signing a quality FA or 2.

When you look back at this off-season, this team is richer, but weaker.  We still have a ways to get back to where we were, offensively, at the end of 2024, let alone do enough to actually improve this team for 2025.

So do your victory dance.  I won't be.     From the canceling of Guardsfest to the dumping of Straw on Toronto, moves appear to be happening to create a war chest.  But if you don't use that war chest to make your club better, you are just saving money to put in the owner's pocket.