Looking Back on the 2024 Draft

 If you read my posts you know that I think the Guardians blew the 2025 draft where the upside grade I can reasonably give them is a C+

The 2023 draft is much more promising with the Guardians signing the following prospects (prospect status in parentheses)

1. Velazquez (11)

2. Clemmey (Traded in Lane Thomas deal) 

CBB. Walters (20)

3. Kayfus (Majors, topped out at #6 in Guardians' system before his promotion_

4. Ingle (4)

That's quite a haul for a single draft.  A couple of things about that draft: After the 4th round the Guards took a bunch of slap college hitters with no power and very little upside and, if you remember that draft, Colt Emerson, who slid down the draft and was my top pre-draft choice for the Guardians, was selected right before the Guardians could draft him, causing them to have to 'settle' for Velazquez.  Now Emerson is a consensus top 10 prospect in ALL of baseball while Velazquez hasn't broken the top 100 on most lists. So, while very successful, even the 2023 draft has its faults.

In 2022, the Guardians drafted DeLauter, Messick, Humphries, Austin Peterson, Zibin and Ellerts as the notables in that draft.  There were lots of misteps, like the drafting of slap hitting Lampe, furman, Lipscomb and soft tosser DeLucia and the unexpected career-long (so far) injured, CBA pick Justin Campbell. Still, they got something out of that draft.  

The 2021 college pitcher draft is legendary with our top two starting pitchers coming out of that draft.

But this post is about the 2024 draft and, particularly, the #1 overall pick.

The Guardians used that pick to draft Travis Bazzana.  It is safe to say that Bazzana has not playeded well.  His supporters will say that prospect development is not linear and that his development was slowed last year by injury.  The Bazzana detractors will tell you that his ABs look weak, resulting in more swing and miss in the zone and more weak contact, much more, than you would expect from a  polished college player drafted first overall in the draft.  

The key here is that this was Cleveland's first #1 overall pick EVER in the draft.  Frankly, Bazzana has to hit big for him to be an asset to this franchise and with Ramirez's contract nearing its end, Bazzana has to get the majors quickly to have good overlap with Ramirez and to give Cleveland the best chance to win in the Ramirez era (which we HOPE continues after 2028!).

The problem, as stated above, is that Bazzana has looked overpowered and overmatched a good portion of the time he's been in the minors.  Simply, he has NOT passed the eye test for what a #1 overall is supposed to look like. Compounding this is how many other players drafted in the first round of that draft have fared.  Here's a list:

1. Bazzana (#14 in MLB Pipeline)

2. Chase Burns (Majors)

3. Charlie Condon (61)

4. Nick Kurtz (AL ROY)

5. Hagen Smith (88)

6. Jac Caglianone (Majors)

7. JJ Wetherholt (5)

8.Christian Moore (Majors)

9. Konnor Griffin (#1 overall prospect in baseball)

10. Seaver King (Not in top 100)

So, while not ALL of the first 10 picks in the 2024 have had the ML success of Kurtz or the prospect success of Griffin and Wetherholt, it is clear that a lot of these guys have been more successful than Bazzana, who was drafted as a plug and play.  In fact, last spring it was: 1. Wetherholt, 2. Kurtz, 3. Bazzana until Wetherholt and Kurtz got injured.  Then it became Bazzana and Condon with Griffin as the dark horse to go 1-1.  So, looking before and after the injuries, it was likely Wetherholt, Kurtz, Bazzana and Griffin.  Of those 4 guys, only Bazzana is underperforming so far.

There is a very real chance that Bazzana may be a bust or, at least, perform more like a 2nd rounder than the 1-1 he is.

To a small market club like Cleveland, that would be devastating.

I get that playing for his country is very important to him but my feeling is, given his struggles so far in professional baseball, this could dig him a deeper hole in trying to reach his potential if he tanks it in the WBC.

Bazzana works for Cleveland and he needs to make it to Cleveland and be productive in the majors, hitting the ground running.  Despite the nationalism of the WBC, which is important, the only way Bazzana should be playing in the WBC is if he has mastered professional baseball and, frankly, profesiional baseball has, at this point, mastered Travis Bazzana.