Guardians Trades from 2016-Present

 I was challenged on X to do something I had wanted to do for a while: look at how well the Guardians have been at making trades.

So let's take a look, going back to the 201-2016 off-season, at how the Guardians have done.

But first, here are the ground rules:

•  I will only look at trades that have TURNED OUT to be significant or was thought to be a significant trade at the time
• 'Significant', for me, is defined as a trade in which one of more of the players traded has a future impact on the team or, in a few rare cases, are prospects projected to have that impact.
• A few of the most recent trades I have graded (e.g., Civale/Manzardo) may change categories over time.
• If I have missed an important trade, I apologize. But I don't believe that a single trade will change the outcome of the analysis below.

With that being said, here goes:

Trades that the Guardians have won

• Andrew Miller for Heller, Clint Frazier, Justus Sheffeld, Feyereisen
• Hedges, Quantrill, Josh Naylor, Arias, Cantillo, Owen Miller for Clevinger, Greg Allen, Matt Waldron
• Ortiz, Hartle, Kennedy for Horwitz
• Clase, DeShields for Kluber
• Brandon Guyer for Lukes, Salinas

Trades that the Guardians have lost

• Carlos Santana, Jake Bauers for Encarnacion, Yandy Diaz and Cole Sulser
• Trevor Bauer for Scott Moss, Yasel Puig, Frnmil Reyes, Logan Allen, Victor Nova
• Horwitz, Mitchell for Gimenez, Sandlin
• Myles Straw for Yainer Diaz, Maton
• Juan Brito for Nolan Jones
• Justin Boyd, AJ Hajjar for Will Benson
• Junior Caminiero for Tobias Myers
• Kept Esteban Florial instead of Deyvison De Los Santos (not really a trade)
• Kody Huff for Cal Quantrill
• Jefry Rodriguez, Daniel Johnson, Andrew Monasterio for Yan Gomes
• Jean Segura, Khalil Watson for Josh Bell
• Patrick Sandoval for Eddie Rosario
• Kyle Dowdy, Leonys Martin for Willi Castro

Trades that are roughly even

• Kyle Manzardo for Aaron Civale
• Lindor, Carrasco for Gimenez, Rosario, Wolf, Greene
• Lane Thomas for Jose Tena, Alex Clemmey, Rafael Ramirez, Jr.
• Brad Hand, Adam Cimber for Francisco Mejia
• Scott Barlow for Enyel De Los Santos
• Alex Cobb for Jacob Bresnahan
• PTBNL for Myles Straw, cash and intentional bonus pool money
• Amed Rosario for Noah Syndergard

SUMMARY

Looking at this list, the Guardians have made their trade reputation on three trades: Clevinger trade, Andrew Miller trade and Clase/Kluber trade.  Potentially, the Civale/Manzardo trade may work out.  However, if you take a look at the bulk of the trades, the Guardians have not gotten the best or broken even on their trades.  Conventional wisdom would be that teams have to make good on at least half of their trades just to avoid getting worse, overall.  However, a small market club like Cleveland probably needs to do better than 50/50 as they can't make up for their trade or draft mistakes by signing expensive free agents.

The front office (including the managers and coaching staff) in Cleveland has been UNBELIEVALBE in putting together great teams and giving the fans an unbelievable product for a long time.  Looking at the results of the trades they have made in almost the last decade even makes their performance better because, frankly, they haven't been good at making trades, except for a few huge ones.

Spring Training Is Here!

 I love spring training.  I have been there a number of times, the last with a media pass so I could see all the minor leaguers play and do their drills.  It was really eye opening and was reinforcing to what I had seen on TV and read in bios and statistics. 

ML spring training under Vogt may turn out to be different under Vogt than it was under Francona.  Under Tito, you kinda knew who was going to make the team from the get go.  Under Vogt, I think it is/will be more of a true competition.  I think guys will get a chance to play their way on (or off) the roster.

So what should we look for this spring training?

• Assuming there are no injuries, the opening day lineup could be telling as I think the guys that start would have to play their way out of the starting lineup.
• The first guys off the bench in the first game will likely be guys who are either competing for platoon spots or are competing for bench spots.
• After the first two waves it will be minor leaguers and NRIs.  Never can tell much from that and garbage/scrub time (what they used to call it when I actually got into a HS basketball game) stats are totally meaningless.
• As far as the pitchers, you can tell absolutely nothing for the first two weeks of so in spring training games.  You are really looking for whether guys look healthy.  I remember 2 years ago McKenzie was getting lit up in a game against Milwaukee and you could see something was not right with him.  The rest is history.  Who starts doesn't matter.  They are just trying to get guys innings and I imagine they might even use their prime relievers in garbage innings becuase they were so overused last year and they might want those guys eased into tougher situations.
• Garbage time guys have a chance to make a good impression.  In most cases these are minor league guys who have done something to get a chance to dress with the Guardians.  Some of this could be need (e.g., bullpen help) or simply a rotation basis to have enough guys to cover all positions in all innings.  In any case it is a reward as those guys will get paid extra because they dress with the big league team as compared to the per diem they get for minor league camp.
• You probably don't but if you DO have access to the daily schedules for the minor leaguers you'll be able to tell both WHO the minor leaguers who will dress with the Guardians in that game in addition to information about which minor league players are injured and only doing rehab or conditioning.

In terms of injuries for players on the ML ST roster (40-man plus non-roster invitees), you are sort of at the mercy of the media unless you have access to the daily ML team reports, if one exists.

It's early, things can change.  But that does not mean that what happens early isn't important, if you know what to believe and that everything else is just circumstance/expedience.

Do We Need New Ownership?

"Dolan Is Cheap".  "Dolan needs to sell the team".  "You had a great team that made you money on in 2024.  You need to invest that money to make your team better in 2025."

We have read and heard some variation of these quotes for, literally, years in Cleveland.  

First it was the Yankees who we HAD to spend money to keep up with.

Then it was us trading our free agents-to-be because we knew we couldn't sign them.

Then it was the Dodgers.

And, most recently, comparisons are starting to come up regarding what Cleveland is doing compared to its competitors in the AL Central and that we are not even keeping up, talent-wise, with them.

So do we need new ownership int Cleveland?

My short answer is NO and here are the reasons why:

• Owning a baseball team in Cleveland is an acquired taste.  You have to be able to understand that opening day is a sellout and the second game in that opening series could have 10,000 people at it.  
• You have to understand that the Browns can go 3-14 but there will likely still be more conversation in the media and on social media about them than about the Guardians.
• You have to understand that the 455 is a thing in the past and that it will take a lot to get fans that excited about their baseball team...and it may never happen.
• You have to know that winning the Yankee way is impossible in Cleveland and that, like it or not, you have to play around the edges and hope your stars align...every year!
• You have to know that your best stars are likely going to want to play in bigger markets and that it's OK, just like it's OK if you trade those stars before they walk as free agents, even if the fans hate you for it.
• You have to know that investing in the best free agents is beyond your means, based on what revenue you are making in this small market.
• Finally, you have to understand that getting your subordinates to work under these conditions AND be successful is nearly impossible so any amount of money you have to invest to keep them here, you invest.

To be the owner of the Cleveland Guardians is to live with the idea that putting a good product on the field every year is the victory, not winning the World Series.  It's to excel when mediocrity is the annual likely outcome and it is that you have to give your team resources to do what they need to do without giving resources to do what the fans want them to do.  It's about trusting your people, staying out of their way, especially in public, and being the wallet that feeds the engine of this organization.  It is about never skimping where it really matters: amateur talent acquistion, trade acquitisiton and, especially, player development.

While I would love to have the deep pocket ownership groups in NY and LA, it has been well-documented that those teams bring in revenue at a pace that will never happen in Cleveland.  

Would I like to have an owner who will throw money around like it is nothing?  Sure.  But that isn't going to happen.

While he is far from perfect, Paul Dolan is an owner who gets the realities, is not frustrated by then,  that can survive in Cleveland and, in fact, under his leadership and that of his executives, thrive in their professional league.   That's something that the 3-14 Browns can't currently say, is it?

I Was Thinking About Our Roster...

 ...and I have some concerns.

In the past I have posted about dead space on the roster.  This includes two types of players:

• Players who are injured and won't be able to play on opening day
• Players who have zero chance of impacting the major league team this year.

You need 26 players on your opening day roster.  If the total of the above two categories is even close to 26 AND your 40-man roster is full, then any player you add to the 40 man roster requires removing a player from your 40-man unless:

• A player is taken off the 40 man roster and placed on the 60-day IL.
• A player is traded for the player you are adding to the 40 man roster

If you have an open spot on your 40 man roster (the Guardians roster is now full) you can add an additional player to your roster.  

In the recent past the Guardians have used this spot as a revolving door.  That is, they add a guy who they don't care if they lose to the 40-man to fill a role at the end of the 26-man roster.  Then, when they need a roster space (e.g., when they have used a RP/SP who won't be available for a few games) they can just DFA the player they added to fill the hole, populating that spot by another player who would be useful to the team at that time.  

So why is this important? Not counting their top 9 players, top 5 SP and top 8 relievers, the Guardians used 12 other position players and 15 other pitchers.  So, yes, having open spots on your roster to do this revolving door is crucial as injuries happen.

...and, why do dead spots on your roster hurt?  Because the more dead spots you have on your roster the fewer players you have to choose from without dipping into the AAAA player pool like the Guardians tend to do to fill these gaps.

So let's talk about the dead spots on the roster.  These guys are on the 40 but will not make the 26-man roster on opening day due to injury or just not being ready

• Shane Bieber (injury, out 1/2 the season, 60 day DL candidate)
• Daniel Espino (injury, out half the season and likely not ready for the ML yet, anyway, NOT 60 day DL candidate as it would start his service time clock)
• Sam Hentges (injury, likely out for the entire season, 60 day DL candidate)
• Trevor Stephan (injury, likely out for opening day, likely not 60 day DL candidate)
• David Fry (injury, likely 60 day DL candidate)
• Petey Halpin (not ready for big leagues in 2025)

This means that there are 34 'live' spots on the 40 man roster (4 60-day DL, 2 not ready for ML).  

In addition, the following players on the 40 man cannot be sent to the minors without passing through waivers as they are out of minor league options:

• Gabriel Arias
• Triston McKenzie
• Ben Lively
• Sam Hentges (already out for the season)

So, right now we have more than enough position players, except for catcher, where we have only the 2 who will be on the opening roster (Naylor, Hedges).

As far as pitchers the following guys who are available for the 26 man roster:

8 man relief staff - 10 guys (Aleman, Cecconi, Clase, Enright, Gaddis, Herrin, Sabrowski, Sewald, Smith, Walters)

5 man starting staff - 8 (Allen, Bibee, Cantillo, Lively, McKenzie, Nikhazy, Ortiz, Williams)

As I understand it, players can be placed on the 60 day DL once pitchers and catchers report for spring training in a little over a week.  

Thus we should be able to add guys on major league deals by just placing the above guys on the DL, meaning there still is a chance we could add quality players on major league deals. 

Again, if we do this we should just do this in free agency.  Looking at it that way, here is what I see:

Outfielders: There are ZERO free agent outfielders worth signing.  I would rather go with the kids than any of these guys.

Catchers: Luke Maile and Andrew Kizner appeal to me on minor league deals but I don't think we have room for Jason Stallings or James McCann as I don't see us carrying 3 catchers on our 26

Left handed relief pitchers: Andrew Chapin still stands out as the only guy I would add on a ML deal.  Guys like Genesis Cabrera (and every other LH reliever available in free agency) on a minor league deal makes sense to me.

Starting pitchers: Here's where it gets interesting.  I could easily see us going big in this area, even signing Pivetta (costs us a draft choice), Andrew Heaney or Kyle Gibson here.  I don't see anyone else on a major league deal but pretty much any other available FA SP on a minor league deal works for me.  With McKenzie being out of options, however, I just don't see the value of adding an innings eater at the expense of losing McKenzie to a DFA.

So, while it is the Guardians and they usually shop in the bargain basement, maybe they will take some of their salary savings and bring in a quality starting pitcher.

Again, no trades allowed.  We just traded away two of our best position players.  We shouldn't then go and trade prospects for new position players.  Also, no infielders as we are stocked there and trading for guys only means that prospects don't get a chance which is stupid if you are just trying to replace the production you gave away for almost nothing.