Monday, February 3, 2025

I Was Thinking About Our Roster...

 ...and I have some concerns.

In the past I have posted about dead space on the roster.  This includes two types of players:
  • Players who are injured and won't be able to play on opening day
  • Players who have zero chance of impacting the major league team this year.
You need 26 players on your opening day roster.  If the total of the above two categories is even close to 26 AND your 40-man roster is full, then any player you add to the 40 man roster requires removing a player from your 40-man unless:
  • A player is taken off the 40 man roster and placed on the 60-day IL.
  • A player is traded for the player you are adding to the 40 man roster
If you have an open spot on your 40 man roster (the Guardians roster is now full) you can add an additional player to your roster.  

In the recent past the Guardians have used this spot as a revolving door.  That is, they add a guy who they don't care if they lose to the 40-man to fill a role at the end of the 26-man roster.  Then, when they need a roster space (e.g., when they have used a RP/SP who won't be available for a few games) they can just DFA the player they added to fill the hole, populating that spot by another player who would be useful to the team at that time.  

So why is this important? Not counting their top 9 players, top 5 SP and top 8 relievers, the Guardians used 12 other position players and 15 other pitchers.  So, yes, having open spots on your roster to do this revolving door is crucial as injuries happen.

...and, why do dead spots on your roster hurt?  Because the more dead spots you have on your roster the fewer players you have to choose from without dipping into the AAAA player pool like the Guardians tend to do to fill these gaps.

So let's talk about the dead spots on the roster.  These guys are on the 40 but will not make the 26-man roster on opening day due to injury or just not being ready
  • Shane Bieber (injury, out 1/2 the season, 60 day DL candidate)
  • Daniel Espino (injury, out half the season and likely not ready for the ML yet, anyway, NOT 60 day DL candidate as it would start his service time clock)
  • Sam Hentges (injury, likely out for the entire season, 60 day DL candidate)
  • Trevor Stephan (injury, likely out for opening day, likely not 60 day DL candidate)
  • David Fry (injury, likely 60 day DL candidate)
  • Petey Halpin (not ready for big leagues in 2025)
This means that there are 34 'live' spots on the 40 man roster (4 60-day DL, 2 not ready for ML).  

In addition, the following players on the 40 man cannot be sent to the minors without passing through waivers as they are out of minor league options:
  • Gabriel Arias
  • Triston McKenzie
  • Ben Lively
  • Sam Hentges (already out for the season)
So, right now we have more than enough position players, except for catcher, where we have only the 2 who will be on the opening roster (Naylor, Hedges).

As far as pitchers the following guys who are available for the 26 man roster:

8 man relief staff - 10 guys (Aleman, Cecconi, Clase, Enright, Gaddis, Herrin, Sabrowski, Sewald, Smith, Walters)

5 man starting staff - 8 (Allen, Bibee, Cantillo, Lively, McKenzie, Nikhazy, Ortiz, Williams)

As I understand it, players can be placed on the 60 day DL once pitchers and catchers report for spring training in a little over a week.  

Thus we should be able to add guys on major league deals by just placing the above guys on the DL, meaning there still is a chance we could add quality players on major league deals. 

Again, if we do this we should just do this in free agency.  Looking at it that way, here is what I see:

Outfielders: There are ZERO free agent outfielders worth signing.  I would rather go with the kids than any of these guys.

Catchers: Luke Maile and Andrew Kizner appeal to me on minor league deals but I don't think we have room for Jason Stallings or James McCann as I don't see us carrying 3 catchers on our 26

Left handed relief pitchers: Andrew Chapin still stands out as the only guy I would add on a ML deal.  Guys like Genesis Cabrera (and every other LH reliever available in free agency) on a minor league deal makes sense to me.

Starting pitchers: Here's where it gets interesting.  I could easily see us going big in this area, even signing Pivetta (costs us a draft choice), Andrew Heaney or Kyle Gibson here.  I don't see anyone else on a major league deal but pretty much any other available FA SP on a minor league deal works for me.  With McKenzie being out of options, however, I just don't see the value of adding an innings eater at the expense of losing McKenzie to a DFA.

So, while it is the Guardians and they usually shop in the bargain basement, maybe they will take some of their salary savings and bring in a quality starting pitcher.

Again, no trades allowed.  We just traded away two of our best position players.  We shouldn't then go and trade prospects for new position players.  Also, no infielders as we are stocked there and trading for guys only means that prospects don't get a chance which is stupid if you are just trying to replace the production you gave away for almost nothing.

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