Given the plan above, including financials, here is my idea of what happened in the Guardians' draft room during the draft.
#27 - Jace LaViolette OF LHH Texas A&M (MLB - 20; ESPN - 21; Athletic 25; Perfect Game - 16)
Actual Bonus: $4.0 million
Slot value for #27: $3.38 mllion
Bonus for the slot (20) based on his composite ranking: $4.27 million
Players they may have wanted at this pick who were drafted earlier:
- Andrew Fischer 3B/1B Tennesse
- Ethan Conrad OF Wake Forest
- Tates Southsiene HS SS
- Marek Houston SS, Wake Forest
NOTE: Almost all the players the Guardians were connected with were drafted before the Guardians picked. Top on this list is Fischer who had the most well-rounded bat (including 60 power and was likely to move the fastest.
Similar players to LaViolette available at slot 27 (MLB rank in parentheses):
- Devin Taylor OF Indians (rank 30)
- Mason Neville OF Oregon St.(35)
- Max Belyeu OF Texas (43)
- Gavin Turley OF Oregon St. (70)
They must have thought that LaViollete (good power, good speed, plus defense) was a much better future prospect than any of these guys, all of whom signed for much less.
Taylor (hit, power, no speed, no defense) would seem to be the next player on their list.
Neville and Belyeu appeared to be good options but lasted much longer than expected in the draft and so were really not options at #27 as something must have happened that devalued them compared to what their rankings were.
Summary: So I think it probably was between LaViolette and Taylor and the Guardians decided to gamble on the more well-rounded player, going for the brass ring at this pick, even if LaViolette had a terrible 2025 season in terms of strikeouts and low BA. That being said, at #27, it was probably a good gamble and mirrored their gamble, but for other reasons, when they drafted Chase DeLauter in 2022.
Note that the less talented player, IMO, Taylor (drafted 48th) actually required only a $2.5 million so they spent $1.5 million more for LaViolette, adding extra pressure for that pick to be a good one.
The only negative about this pick is, even after his terrible 2025 season they still paid him overslot for his draft slot, though not overslot for his consensus draft ranking.
NOTE: I really think they were avoiding high school players at this pick so Southisene (drafted at 22) and Josh Hammond (drafted #28) were not in their plans unless everything in front of pick #27 had just gone to heck relative to their draft targets.
#64 - Dean Curley 3B/2B RHH Tennessee (MLB: 60, ESPN: 78, Perfect Game: 85)
Actual Bonus: $1.73 million
Slot Value for #64: $1.38 milion
Slot value for his composite (74) ranking: $1.11 million
I truly think the Guardians draft room were looking for a college SP here based on their previous history 2021 entire draft, 2022 (Justin Campbell & Parker Messick) and the fact that they didn't draft college starting pitching early in 2023 or 2024). College pitchers that they may have wanted who were drafted before this pick:
- Cade Obermueller, LHP Iowa (ranked 53 by MLB Pipeline)
- Marcus Phillips RHP (61)
- JD Thompson, LHP (66)
- AJ Russell RHP, Tennessee (70)
- Joseph Dzierwa, LHP Michigan State (74)
- Michael Lombardi RHP (75)
- Casey Shores RHP (77)
NOTE: Most of these college pitchers were ranked lower or close to 64 on most rankings. The likelihood that ALL these guys would be drafted and be gone at #64 was low but, as they were already gone by slot #64, the Guardians may have had to go a different direction with this pick and pick a slot appropriate college bat with both a hit tool and at least some power.
College hitters, in addition to Curley, available at #64 (ranking in parentheses)
- Neville (35)
- Belyeu (34)
- Turley (70)
- Henry Godbout, 2B, Virginia (72)
- Kyle Lodise, SS, Georgia Tech (79)
NOTE: of these hitters, most were drafted way or somewhat below this slot and only the top 3 really have power.
Highly Ranked College Pitchers available at this slot
- Anthony Eyanson, RHP LSU (40, drafted 87th, actual bonus: $1.75 million)
- James Ellwanger, RHP Dallas Baptist (76, drafted 88th, $1.00 million)
NOTE: Both of these pitchers would have been options for the Guardians at #64 but, for some reason, they chose not to draft them. They must have valued Curley more highly than either of these two as it would have made sense to draft one of them, especially Eyanson, to get a college pitcher. It should be noted that Eyanson signed for $1.75 million so maybe the Guardians math didn't allow them to go that far over their slot of $1.38 million or they didn't find Eyanson to be worth $1.75 million , almost exactly what they paid Curley.
Summary: Curley, a college sophomore, was likely to require an overslot bonus. The issue with this pick is that he will likely not play SS as a pro and his other two likely positons are 3B (Ramirez's spot) or 2B (Bazzana's spot). They didn't save any money on this selection as they could have paid Eyanson or Ellwanger the same thing. Potentially, they may not have scouted these two that much because Eyanson was likely to be gone and Ellwanger was probably ranked below the 7 college SP listed above and they probably never thought they would have to go to that level.
So, at this spot, they just took the next available player on their board after Shores and that turned out to be Curley. I don't believe they intended to take a college infielder here. I think they were backed into a corner and tried to maximize potential. One thing I think they did consider, however, was that Curley hit RH and that is something that is lacking in their farm system.
#66 Aaron Walton OF RHH Arizona (MLB: 161, ESPN: 169, Perfect Game: 140)
Actual Bonus: $1.1 million
Slot Value for #66: $1.32 million
Slot Value for his composite (156) ranking: $443,100
Given that they didn't like Eyanson or Ellwanger at #64 it is doubtful they would like them at #67, especially, considering Eyanson, that Curley was likely going to cost more than slot.
So let's look at who WAS available, in college position players, at #67.
There were 2 LHH college power hitters available at this point who fit their slot, Neville (35) and Gavin Turley (78) who fit their profile. However, both Neville and Turley lasted into the 4th round, indicating that all teams had some issues with them.
It appears that the Guardians thought so little of the remaining college guys (hitters and pitchers), that they decided to WAY overdraft Aaron Walton, OF, Arizona (161), a RHH hitting outfielder who can play CF and has some power potential. This, in essence, was a gamble that they could coach Walton up to being worth slot #66 (or higher) in performance based on his potential.
Still, it is a gamble, as there were LOTS of college position players and pitchers who were ranked much higher than Walton who were available here. Given the gamble they took on LaViolette and how Curley likely didn't fit what they were looking for at #64, I think the gamble on overdrafting Walton was really risky meaning he has to be successful at the level you would expect for a #67 slot, not a #161 slot.
I think, due to the short time between #64 and #66, the Guardians panicked and made one of those "They like who they like" picks, which translates into them not having a strategy in place if all those college pitchers I mentioned above were taken.
#70 - Will Hynes, RHP, HS - (MLB: 163, ESPN: 160 Perfect Game: 109)
Actual Bonus: $950,000
Slot Value for #70: $1.19 million
Slot Value for his composite (144) ranking: $499,000
At this point, I think the Guardians draft went completely off the rails. I think their strategy was completely blown up. I have to admit I have no idea what they were thinking, drafting Will Hynes, HS RHP (166) at #70. It seriously scares me when I read that he pitched during extended spring training for a Canadian team against our extended spring training players and "made quite an impression" on the Guardians staff in Arizona. Could they really have based this overdraft on that impression? Was he really worth it at #70? There wasn't a single player who fit their 3 top targets (LHH college power position player, RHH college position player, college SP)?
An overdrafted HS RHP was not in the profile for the Guardians at that point or, really, at any point in the paste 5 drafts. It was very out of character for them. This seems to me like a desperation play, trying to find a brass ring pick and gambling a lot on Hynes being MUCH more than he is projected to be. And even if he ends up being worth a #70 pick, he will hit the majors, at best, by 2029 or 2030, with 4-5 other HS SP draftees who will be on the same trajectory as Hynes with very few position quality position player prospects who will be on that trajectory.
It is as close to a crazy pick as the Guardians made, up to this point, in the draft =and the appearance that they based this pick largely on his performance in Arizona makes this pick even more problematic to me. I think I could even say that Hynes was the craziest pick they have made early in a draft since taking Carson Tucker in the first round of 2020.
There were a lot of players who made MUCH more sense at #70 than Hynes:
Justin Lamkin LHP Texas A&M is a Guardians pitcher: strong control, projectable FB and great slider.
Tanner Franklin, RHP Tennessee
Max Belyeu, OF Texas
Anthony Eyanson RHP, LSU
James Ellwanger, RHP Dallas Baptist
Mason Neville, OF, Oregon State.
Any one of these 6 college players would have been better bets than Hynes in terms of their ranking and their closer proximity to the major leagues.
Heck, any of about 10 HS pitchers rated higher than Hynes would have been a better gamble than Hynes, IMO.
Given what had happened to them earlier in the draft and the gambles they had already made on LaViolette and Walton and the positional issue they will have with Curley playing positions already spoken for (Ramirez, Bazzana), the pick of Hynes is not only puzzling and non-defensible, but the process is scary that led to this decision.
Finally, it really gave me, at that point, a sense that their draft was spinning out of control.
#101 - Nolan Schubart, OF, LHH Oklahoma St. - (MLB: 126, ESPN: 136, Perfect Game: 82)
Actual Bonus: $730,00
Slot Value for #101: $759,400
Slot Value for his composite (114) ranking: $667,700
At this slot in the draft I had Matt Barr selected but had Oklahoma State OFer Nolan Schubart as my backup if Barr was gone.
Well, Barr wasn't gone. That being said, I can see how his extreme spin rate, while top shelf, could give pause regarding future arm injuries. So, maybe Barr wasn't a good 3rd round pick. The fact is, the Guardians didn't even like him enough to make him their 4th round pick. Maybe the gamble on Hynes was just too much to allow them to gamble on Barr, too.
So they picked Schubart. Remember, however, that Schubart was suggested by me when I thought we would get two college SP and have two college power hitters by the time we got to 101 and only if Barr, my biggest gamble in this draft on paper, was gone.
However, without a college SP so far, there had to be at least one pitcher who made more sense to the Guardians than drafting Schubart, who is likely to be a DH/1B at the ML level.
The list of guys drafted after #101 included:
Sean Youngerman RHP Oklahoma St., - Another Guardians' type pitcher suggested by me to be their 3rd round pick in my first mock.
Nate Snead RHP Tennessee
Barr
Riley Kelly RHP UC Irvine
Neville
Turley
Personally, given that the Guardians hadn't drafted a college pitcher yet, I would have gone with Youngerman, Snead or Kelly, in that order, assuming, as we know, they didn't like Barr (didn't draft him in the 4th round, either). However, all that considered, Schubart is not a bad pick although he is most likely to end up at 1B or DH and, if he can stay in the outfield, it will be a fringe average defender in LF. I consider Schubart a poor man's Devin Taylor so if they can coach Schubart up to Taylor's level, this pick could be a big win for Cleveland.
#132 - Luke Hill, 2B, RHH, Ole Miss - (MLB: 98, ESPN: 135 Perfect Game: 93)
Actual Bonus: $722,600
Slot Value for #132: $561,400
Slot Value for his composite (109) ranking: $701,300
As I said after #70, I felt their draft was in free fall. That free fall started to be more evident in the 4th round when they drafted a Luke Hill, a RHH second baseman from Ole Miss. He is solid defensively and a very 2023-like hit over power guy. To make matters even worse, he plays second base. We know Bazzana plays second base and there is a chance Curley plays there, too. Why would you draft ANOTHER second baseman when there were other players who you could have selected?
Ranked players available at this spot who made much more sense than Hill are:
Barr
Zane Taylor P UNC Wilmington (Senior sign)
Ben Abeldt P TCU (injured all season)
James Quinn-Irons OF George Mason (late rising analytics darling)
Ethan Young, Closer, East Carolina (unranked overdraft but a Guardians' type guy)
and a host of other college pitchers ranked between 150-230.
I don't understand the Hill pick. It does not address need and it does not address strategy. The only thing it addresses is that it brings in a RHH college player who is more highly ranked than his draft slot who hits right handed. So the only thing I can think of at this point is that they WERE NOT interested in drafting college pitching in this draft which is an extreme change from the previous 5 drafts, although 2024 did put less emphasis on top end college starting pitching (and more on top end HS pitching) than either of the 4 drafts before it so maybe they were trending that way even in 2024.
#162 - Riley Nelson, 1B, LHH, Vanderbilt - (MLB: NR (>250), ESPN: 218. Perfect Game: 346)
Actual Bonus: $350,000
Slot Value for #163: $418,700
Slot Value for his composite (260) ranking: $208,100
As I said, the wheels seem to be coming off. With their 5th round pick the Guardians pick a LHH, RH throwing, lowly ranked first baseman Riley Nelson, Vanderbilt. No man-splaining intended but the RH first baseman is less desirable because it is hard for them to take pickoff throws.
Every other pick made up to this point can be explained. But Nelson? LHH first base-only guy who is much more hit than power? We have Kayfus, we have Manzardo, we have Velasquez at Lake County. We already have Schubart from this draft who may end up at 1B. We really didn't need Nelson and it is hard to argue he was even the best player available in the draft.
Using the college player-only philosophy for this pick, there were lots of college pitchers available (listed with their MLB Pipeline rankings).
Jack Anker RHP Fresno St. (198) was my 5th round pick in my first mock draft.
Caden Hunter LHP USC (149), my backup pick in the 5th round of my first mock draft
Sawyer Hawkes RHP Vanderbilt (225) - a later riser in the draft.
#192 - Nelson Keljo, LHRP Oregon St. - (MLB: 182, ESPN: 211 Perfect Game: 169)
Actual Bonus: $325,100
Slot Value for #192: $325,100
Slot Value for his composite (187) ranking: $338,900
The first pick in the draft since LaViolette that made sense for the Guardians, Keljo is a relief pitcher prospect who has stuff commensurate with the slot he was selected.
One could argue that there were other players available but I don't know if any of them were 6th round talents. They could have possibly taken a flyer on Pierce Coppola (NR) LHP, Florida, a darling of mine left over from the 2024 draft. But it is hard to argue with Keljo without going into NR (not ranked) territory. So, even though Keljo is not projected to be any more than a Tim Herrin/Erik Sabrowski type lefty, he still has value in the 6th round compared to some brass ring pick.
Note also that Keljo signed for the slot he was drafted in which was not that much different from his composite ranking.
#222 - Will McCausland RHRP, Ole Miss - (MLB: NR, ESPN: NR Perfect Game: 348)
Actual Bonus: $235,600
Slot Value for #222: $256,000
Slot Value for his composite (300) ranking: $190,500
McCausland was another combine attendee meaning the lowest bonus we could have offered him at this slot was $192,000 so we went a little overslot for him. He is another college reliever, one I identified as a possible pick in rounds 11-20 so this is a bit of an overdraft for me and for the 3 ranking systems above.
At this point I am splitting hairs if I say we could have gotten a better player in the 7th round. It is quite possible that the Guardians were doing their math and looking for a guy who would go underslot which McCausland did.
Guys who I liked here who might have provided alternatives but had their own warts are:
- Tanner Thach, 1B UNC Wilmington (151) who has light tower power
- Henry Allen, IF, NW Florida JC - I had identified him as an 8th round pick in my first two mocks and he was the best power hitter in JUCO ball this year.
- Kyle McCoy LHP Maryland (197)
- Jared Jones 1B LSU (101) - A 5th/6th round pick in my first mock draft
- Sam Horn RHP Missouri (90) - Drafted late and signed to a large bonus by the Dodgers, he is a football quarterback who won't start his professional career until next spring. The large bonus might have killed this pick at this point, given what we were paying the guys drafted ahead of McCausland.
All of these guys move the needle for me more than McCausland does in terms of future value.
It almost appears that the Guardians were done collecting duplicates of guys they had already drafted and so were looking in different areas. That is, at least until they made their next pick.
#252 - Anthony Martinez, 1B, University of California, LHH, - (MLB: 171, ESPN: 195 Perfect Game: 273)
Actual Bonus: $214,200
Slot Value for #252: $214,200
Slot Value for his composite (213) ranking: $274,100
It was hard to rationalize drafting a slap hitting 1B like Nelson in the 5th round but doubling down and drafting another LHH, hit-over-power 1B only guy 3 rounds later is mind numbing.
Given that RHH Jared Jones (101) was still on the board (but only for 13 more picks), that a goal of this draft was to acquire college power hitters and that Martinez, Nelson and Jones played the same position, I could have seen taking Martinez in the 5th and Jones in the 8th, or vice versa, or including xome of the power hitters I mentioned who were still available in the 7th instead of taking Nelson in the 5th would have all made more sense than the duplicative Nelson-Martinez combination as we already have Kayfus/Manzardo/Velasquez.
Another head-scratching pick when you consider all the other guys playing the same position who were still available and the depth we have in our organization at LHH 1B.
#282 - Ryan Prager, LHP Texas A&M - (MLB: NR, ESPN: NR Perfect Game: 259)
Actual Bonus: $197,200
Slot Value for #282: $197,200
Slot Value for his composite (260) ranking: $208,100
Prager makes draft experts go ooh and ahhh. He was a 3rd round pick in 2024 who decided to go back to school but that gamble backfired as he had a terrible 2025. So getting him here is a good window dressing pick until you dig deeper and see he was only throwing 89 mph in college this year.
We are talking the 9th round of the draft, Austin Peterson territory, where you are like the new bride, hoping she can change her husband (with, as the joke goes, the husband hoping the bride never changes). The Peterson comparison is somewhat appropriate as they are taking a round 9 flyer on a guy who has to change significantly to be effective as a pro. So if they can make the changes necessary to make Prager a stud reliever, maybe thaey get value at this pick. If not, well, it's only a 9th round pick.
The only thing I will say is that Jake McCutcheon, a 2B from Missouri St. (228) was also available. I liked this guy in this range but I don't know, after taking HIll, if I would have ever taken McCutcheon as that would have been doubling up when other needs had to be addressed.
#312 - Harrison Bodendorf LHRP Oklahoma St. - (MLB: NR, ESPN: NR Perfect Game: 304)
Actual Bonus: $150,000
Slot Value for #312: $187,000
Slot Value for his composite (310) ranking: $187,000
There's not a lot I can say about a 10th round pick. Bodendorf was on my list of potential college relievers to be picked in rounds 11-20. Interesting that they went for 3 LHRP, possibly addressing a weakness in the system.
I think they made a HUGE mistake not taking a flyer on Jared Spencer, a RHRP from Texas (113) who dropped due to having a significant shoulder injury at the end of the season. He signed for $165,000, not hugely over slot for the 11th round he was picked in. He has more upside than Bodendorf but, of course, the downside of a shoulder injury in through the basement. But, again, it would have been a 10th round, slot value signing gamble as compared to Bodendorf.
Rounds 11-20
I am lumping all these picks together and doing one large entry in this blog.
It is hard to argue with many of the picks that the Guardians made in these rounds.
Likely due to their bonus commitments from the first few rounds they couldn't really draft a HS P flyer who required a large overslot bonus.
The college pitchers they drafted, DeSanto, Savary, Chrest and even Petty were on my radar for this part of the draft.
I will say it was stupid of them to draft two organizational soldier college catchers when this strategy has been a draft disaster for them in these rounds in the past and there were at least 16 college catchers taken as UDFA who could have filled this need while leaving room for other picks here.
Guys like John Bay OF Austin Peay (one of my favorites for 2 draft cycles) (UDFA), Judd Utemark 2b/3B Ole Miss (UDFA), Eddie Madrigal UTIL/C St. Mary's CA (UDFA). Hayden Friese, OF, Western Carolina (20th round Atlanta) all, IMO, would have been better picks with more potential than these guys.
I think their 19th and 20th round picks were just symbolic picks showing that they DID consider HS pitchers. These picks should have been used on the college position players I mentioned above or college relief pitchers like the ones we did pick.
So, in summary, these rounds were very boring, maybe the most boring I can remember for Cleveland since 2017, at least. It resembled, in a lot of ways, the old days of Cleveland drafts when the later rounds in the draft were used to throw bones to their scouts who may not have been assigned to a guy who became a high-round draft pick but still did hard work and deserved to have one of their guys drafted. Not how we should run a draft. Not saying that's what happened. Just saying that's what it looks like to me as there was no discernible purpose to a lot of the picks in these rounds.
UDFAs
As mentioned in Part 21, it does not appear that the Guardians signed any undrafted free agents after the draft. These players tend to only be organizational soldiers but there are always a few that are interesting. By what I have read there were 335 undrafted free agents signed after the draft. The bulk of these were college players and probably the bulk of them were college seniors. There were also JUCO players and even a few HS players mixed in to this group.
As indicated above, it is easy to hypothesize how the Guardians were led into the choices they made in the draft.
While it's not crucially important to success or failure of this draft, it is just not comprehendible to me how, when other MLB teams averaged over 3 UDFA's signed, a small market team like the Guardians, who can't afford to compete for ML free agents, could possibly ignore this avenue to get talent into their system. The outward appearance is that they didn't have a plan and/or decided not to spend resources necessary to sign any of these players. As indicated above, guys like Bay, Madrigal, Utemark, Allen and others would have been good targets All of these guys went undrafted and, as college powerhitters, fell right in line with the main target group of this draft.
While this didn't ruin the draft for the Guardians, I can't see the logic in signing no UDFAs. Maybe they did and we just haven't seen any announcements. However, if they didn't sign anyone, I can't begin to imagine what they were thinking when every other team were signing these guys, some of who had good skills.
