A Quick Look at Where The Guardians Roster Is Heading Into 2026 - Part 2 - Who Should Be Extended

This is a short list and, therefore, a short post.

Steven Kwan - Although they could easily trade Kwan and I wouldn't be overly distraught...assuming they got a good return, I would rather they extend him.  That being said, if Kwan totally refuses to discuss an extension, he needs to be moved to the trade list immediately.  Again, Kwan is not THE guy but he is A guy in this lineup and, enough 'guys' does a lineup make.

Cade Smith - Relievers are really tricky as they have off years and get hurt.  However, I believe the Guardians need to set precedents and, frankly, we are looking at a salary floor in the next collective bargaining agreement and so getting Smith (and others) signed before then means they are signed before players have that leverage of knowing their extension might be necessary to push a team above the floor.  So, sign me up for a Cade Smith extension.  He has earning it so let's get a 5 year deal done with him.

Gavin Williams - Ditto for what I said about Smith.  The Bibee extension looked like a bad one until the end of last year so this is more of get some rotation stability signing that hope for proportionately better results with high salary signing.  

Jose Ramirez - OK, I know, we have him signed to an extension right now.  What my dream would be would be to extend his contract 3 more years @ $33 MM a year with some significant incentive clauses as he sets more and more club records and gets more national accolades.  This shows him that we care about him and reads into him saying that his next contract will NOT be a team friendly contract. Hey, no way do I think he will be worth $33 MM a year in those 3 years but keeping him through the end of his career is as important a business decision, long term, as competing longterm, IMO.  Anyone who has been outside Busch Stadium in St. Louis and has seen all those statues knows how important it is to keep Jose here for his entire career.  Plus, like the other guys above, it will help with the salary floor in those years.

That's it.  That's all I want from the Guardians for Christmas, these 4 extensions.

A Quick Look at Where The Guardians Roster Is Heading Into 2026 - Part 1 - Who Should Be Traded

 OK, time for an honest look at where the Guardians are in terms of their roster for 2026.  Poepl may not like these assessments, but they are my assessments, nonetheless.

IMPRESSIONS OF THE ROSTER AS IT CURRENTLY IS CONSTRUCTED

1. The roster contains a lot of likely 'dead wood', meaning guys who should be on minor league deals and guys who have underperformed in the past and are on their last chance, which they MUST be given before we can feel good about dumping them for nothing.

2. The roster has lots of guys competing for bullpen spots but very few of them could be counted on in the 8th or 7th innings.  To think that Matt Festa is your clear, #1 7th inning guy is scary, given what our pullpen has looked like in the past, when it was the strongest in baseball.  You could make the case that 2 things are occurring: (a) the Guardians are trying to be the smartest people in the room by taking failures who have certain attributes they like and turning them into successes that they weren't with their previous teams.  That is, essentially, the definition of hubris; (2) while I say this tongue-in-cheek, the bullpen acquisitions they have made look like they are designed to tick off the fanbase and make it hard to get excited about this team. IMO, I think this will likely tick off players who are trying to win (hint: one of those player's names rhymes with Mose A. Ha-Meer-Ez)

3. A trade of position prospects for proven veteran position player(s) is likely the only way we can improve the offense.  The FO says they believe in our prospects but I think, instead, it is because they are scared to have another Junior Caminero, Yainer Diaz, etc. blossom for another team.  They would rather ride or die with the prospects they have.  That might work but the hitting coaching on this team sucks and doing the same thing year after year and expecting different results is the definition of insanity...or a combination of insanity and hubris.  So, I would trade for Willson Contreras and Luis Robert Jr. and call it an off-season.  I would do this using some of the assets below in addition to players whose playing time they would take.   So, for example, I would trade Halpin in a Robert Jr. trade because they play the same position.  I would trade Kayfus in a Willson Contreras deal for the same reason.

PLAYERS WHO I THINK SHOULD BE TRADED

CJ Kayfus - IMO, Kayfus is a tweener.  He is not fast enough to be a good defensive outfielder and has no base stealing ability. His arm is weak. Yes, you can put him in the OF and he won't kill you there. He doesn't hit for enough power (and never will) to be a first baseman and doesn't hit for enough average that, without power or speed, he can start at either position.

Outdome - I think Kayfus should be used in a trade this off-season, e.g., to obtain Luis Robert, Jr.

Gabriel Arias - Arias is one of those teaser prospects.  A guy with one great tool (arm) and a bunch of other tools that you hope, someday, catch up to his arm strength.  So far they haven't.

Outcome - I look to trade Arias this winter as part of a package.  Bite the bullet, put Rocchio at SS and move on from Arias while he has value 

Peyton Pallette - If we need a roster spot, I think we should return Pallette to the White Sox instead of DFAing anyone on the current 40 man.

Nolan Jones - Part of the FO's premise for the 2026 season is to give our young position players who haven't had a chance yet, to play to see how they turn out.  Trading Jones opens up more playing time for guys like Valera and DeLauter...and even Halpin, when the opportunity arises.  

Outcome - I package Jones in a trade to get another asset that we do need.

NOTE: I would have never signed Holderman or Brogdon or traded for Bruihl so any of the three of them could be traded or released, IMO.

Looking Back on the 2024 Draft

 If you read my posts you know that I think the Guardians blew the 2025 draft where the upside grade I can reasonably give them is a C+

The 2023 draft is much more promising with the Guardians signing the following prospects (prospect status in parentheses)

1. Velazquez (11)

2. Clemmey (Traded in Lane Thomas deal) 

CBB. Walters (20)

3. Kayfus (Majors, topped out at #6 in Guardians' system before his promotion_

4. Ingle (4)

That's quite a haul for a single draft.  A couple of things about that draft: After the 4th round the Guards took a bunch of slap college hitters with no power and very little upside and, if you remember that draft, Colt Emerson, who slid down the draft and was my top pre-draft choice for the Guardians, was selected right before the Guardians could draft him, causing them to have to 'settle' for Velazquez.  Now Emerson is a consensus top 10 prospect in ALL of baseball while Velazquez hasn't broken the top 100 on most lists. So, while very successful, even the 2023 draft has its faults.

In 2022, the Guardians drafted DeLauter, Messick, Humphries, Austin Peterson, Zibin and Ellerts as the notables in that draft.  There were lots of misteps, like the drafting of slap hitting Lampe, furman, Lipscomb and soft tosser DeLucia and the unexpected career-long (so far) injured, CBA pick Justin Campbell. Still, they got something out of that draft.  

The 2021 college pitcher draft is legendary with our top two starting pitchers coming out of that draft.

But this post is about the 2024 draft and, particularly, the #1 overall pick.

The Guardians used that pick to draft Travis Bazzana.  It is safe to say that Bazzana has not playeded well.  His supporters will say that prospect development is not linear and that his development was slowed last year by injury.  The Bazzana detractors will tell you that his ABs look weak, resulting in more swing and miss in the zone and more weak contact, much more, than you would expect from a  polished college player drafted first overall in the draft.  

The key here is that this was Cleveland's first #1 overall pick EVER in the draft.  Frankly, Bazzana has to hit big for him to be an asset to this franchise and with Ramirez's contract nearing its end, Bazzana has to get the majors quickly to have good overlap with Ramirez and to give Cleveland the best chance to win in the Ramirez era (which we HOPE continues after 2028!).

The problem, as stated above, is that Bazzana has looked overpowered and overmatched a good portion of the time he's been in the minors.  Simply, he has NOT passed the eye test for what a #1 overall is supposed to look like. Compounding this is how many other players drafted in the first round of that draft have fared.  Here's a list:

1. Bazzana (#14 in MLB Pipeline)

2. Chase Burns (Majors)

3. Charlie Condon (61)

4. Nick Kurtz (AL ROY)

5. Hagen Smith (88)

6. Jac Caglianone (Majors)

7. JJ Wetherholt (5)

8.Christian Moore (Majors)

9. Konnor Griffin (#1 overall prospect in baseball)

10. Seaver King (Not in top 100)

So, while not ALL of the first 10 picks in the 2024 have had the ML success of Kurtz or the prospect success of Griffin and Wetherholt, it is clear that a lot of these guys have been more successful than Bazzana, who was drafted as a plug and play.  In fact, last spring it was: 1. Wetherholt, 2. Kurtz, 3. Bazzana until Wetherholt and Kurtz got injured.  Then it became Bazzana and Condon with Griffin as the dark horse to go 1-1.  So, looking before and after the injuries, it was likely Wetherholt, Kurtz, Bazzana and Griffin.  Of those 4 guys, only Bazzana is underperforming so far.

There is a very real chance that Bazzana may be a bust or, at least, perform more like a 2nd rounder than the 1-1 he is.

To a small market club like Cleveland, that would be devastating.

I get that playing for his country is very important to him but my feeling is, given his struggles so far in professional baseball, this could dig him a deeper hole in trying to reach his potential if he tanks it in the WBC.

Bazzana works for Cleveland and he needs to make it to Cleveland and be productive in the majors, hitting the ground running.  Despite the nationalism of the WBC, which is important, the only way Bazzana should be playing in the WBC is if he has mastered professional baseball and, frankly, profesiional baseball has, at this point, mastered Travis Bazzana.

Quick Thoughts About The 2025 ML Portion of the Rule 5 Draft

 Well, the 2025 Rule 5 drafts (ML and MiLB portions) are in the books and here are my thoughts:

Guardians

Once again the Guardians FO put on a masterclass as to how to conserve their prospect assets.

• ZERO players selected in the ML portion
• ZERO players selected in the minor league portion (almost unheard of!!!)

[NOTE: I think that is the first time in at least 10 years where they haven't lost ANYONE. More on that later tonight when I get a chance to research it.]

Major League Portion

• Definitions (my, arbitrary, decisions)
• Small market/weak teams: TB, CLE, DET, KC, MIN, CWS, ATH, LAA, MIA, WSH, CIN, COL, STL, PIT, 
• Large market/strong teams: TOR, NYYH, BOS, SEA, HOU, TEX, PHI, NYM, ATL, MIL, CHC, LAD, SD, SF, ARZ
• 13 players were selected 
• Teams losing players
• Small market/weak teams: Tigers, Marlins (2), Athletics, Reds, Rays, Cardinals
• Large market/strong teams: Red Sox, Phillies, Orioles, Giants (2)
• Teams drafting players or trading for those drafted:
• Small market/weak teams: Rockies, White Sox (2), Nationals, Athletics, Cardinals, Guardians
• Large market/strong teams: Giants, Rangers, Red Sox, Astros, Blue Gays, Yankees, Phillies
• Competitive Balance Implications (Including trades after the draft)
• 4 of the 13 players selected went from a small market/weak team to another small market/weak team
• 2 went from a large market/strong team to a small market/weak team
• 7 went from a small market/weak team to a large market/strong tea

• More players (7) were lost from small market/weak teams than from large market/strong teams
• Only 2 players drafted (after considering trades), went from a large market team to a small market/weak team
• The Yankees selected a player for the first time in at least 10 years and had no players drafted
• Both WS teams in 2025 did not lose a player
• One WS team (TOR) actually drafted a player 
• 7 (including trades) went from a small market/weak team to a large market/strong team.

SUMMARY

The Rule 5 draft was originally set up to redistribute talent and to keep the richer franchises from hoarding prospects.  In 2025 this effort failed.  In fact, weaker teams actually had more players drafted than they drafted.

More analysis to follow later tonight!

Guardians Top 100+ Prospects - Pre- Rule 5 Version

 OK, so this milestone (the Rule 5 draft) as an arbitrary place for me to place this top prospect list.   But for any team that picks up one of our players in the upcoming Rule 5 I thought this would be good to have as a reference.  I will update this  (and change the title) after the Rule 5 but, for now, here it is.

* - 2025 draftee

*** - Regular season ML experience but has not exceeded rookie eligibility limits

BOLD - Rule 5 Eligible

1. Chase DeLauter 

2. Angel Genao 

3. Travis Bazzana

4. Ralphy Velasquez

5. Jaison Chourio

6. Jace LaViolette *

7. CJ Kayfus ***

8. Braylon Doughty

9. Parker Messick ***

10. Juan Brito

11. Cooper Ingle

12. Juniker Cáceres

13. Khal Stephen - due to looming shoulder impingement

14. Alfonsin Rosario

15. Dean Curley *

16. Joey Oakie

17. Welbyn Francisca

18. Robert Arias

19. Andrew Walters ***

20. Khalil Watson

21. Josh Hartle

22. Franco Aleman

23. George Valera ***

24. Nolan Schubart *

25. Doug Nikhazy ***

26. Aaron Walton *

27. Dauri Fernandez

28. Yorman Gomez

29. Jackson Humprhies

30. Chase Mobley

31. Austin Peterson

32. Matt Wilkinson

33. Michael Kennedy

34. Daniel Espino

35. Wuildredo Antunez

36. Will Hynes *

37. Jacob Zibin

38. Cam Sullivan

39. Gabriel Rodriguez

40. Petey Halpin ***

41. Luke Hill*

42. Milan Tolentino

43. Dylan DeLucia

44. Jonathon Rodiguez ***

45. Jacob Cozart 

46. Nelson Keljo*

47. Ryan Webb

48. Will Dion

49. Logun Clark 

50. Aaron Davenport

51. Trenton Denholm

52. Anthony Martinez *

53. Kody Huff

54. Dayan Frias

55. Riley Nelson *

56. Hiverson Lopez

57. Heins Brito

58. Alex Mooney

59. Luis Merejo

60. Jose Devers

61. Jack Jasiak

62. Justin Campbell - has not appeared in an MiLB game but will be R5 eligible in Dec.

63. Aiden Major

64. Tommy Mace

65. Caden Favors

66. Juan Benjamin

67. Sean Matson

68. Esteban Gonzalez

69. Jake Miller

70. Rodney Boone

71. Alaska Abney

72. Magnus Ellerts

73. Steven Perez

74. Rafe Schlesinger

75. Ryan Prager*

76. Guy Lipscomb

77. Harrison Bodendorf*

78. Connor Whitaker

79. Jervis Alfaro

80. Raudy Rivera

81. Luis Flores

82. Johan Rodriguez

83. Christian Knapczyk

84. Yeiferth Castillo

85, Melkelis Hernandez

86. Zach Jacobs

87. Maick Collado

88. Zane Morehouse

89. Will McCausland*

90. Tommy Hawke

91. Davis Sharpe

92. Jay Driver

93. Aaron Savary *

94. Ryan DeSanto *

95. Evan Chrest *

96. Jose Pirela

97. Evelio Hernandez

98. Jogly Garcia

99. Keegan Zinn

100. Anthony Silva *

101. Tyrese Turner

102. Jake Fox

103. Nick Mitchell

104. Joe Lampe