Ever since Yonder Alonso came to the majors I wanted to use that line and now I have my chance.
If you consider the prediction of the structure of the Indians April 25 man roster like an NCAA basketball bracket prediction, well, consider my bracket busted!
This is not to say that I don't like the Alonso contract. I actually like it. Not too long, not too short, 3rd year option, not too pricy this year. Yeah, it looks about right. Alonso cashes in on his beyond-all-expectations-career-year. We get a guy who we hope matches last year when the rest of the league
So what's not to like?
Alonso is a lefty hitter who can't hit lefties. Thus he is a platoon player. We will need to add another hitter to platoon with him. Maybe we have options in house (Diaz, Guyer, Mejia) or maybe we go out and get another veteran. If we do the latter guys like Gio Urshela and Erik Gonzalez are at risk as they are out of options. Plus, if we added a veteran right hand bat you would have liked him to be a full-time starter like maybe a thirdbaseman instead of just a platoon firstbaseman.
You see the issue. By adding Alonso you likely will add another veteran, pushing back younger players.
For me, I would have rather just kept Mejia on the roster as the third catcher/DH. Chisenhall can play some 1B and so can Brantley. With the guys we have returning, I think that works better than signing Alonso. Plus we have Yandy Diaz. I know what they were doing in getting Alonso but I just don't like it. Young guys get kicked to the curb or jettisoned because they are not Lindoresque and we get little or nothing for them. A perfect example is Jesus Aguilar, who was out of options last year. He ended up on waivers and picked up by Milwaukee. Well, he hit 16 HR last year in Milwaukee. His LH splits were .303 BA and .889 OPS and he wasn't terrible against RHP, either. We jettisoned him for nothing because we didn't have room for him when, if we would have kept him, we could have used him to help, in a platoon situation, to replace Santana this year. To me that would have made as much sense as signing Alonso as we wouldn't have to look for another FA signing to platoon with Alonso and it would have been MUCH cheaper.
Hey, I am OK with signing certain veterans when needed. However, the last two years we have made moves that gave away young players for little return. Signing Alonso might cause us to do the same again. I just don't like that when we are in a weak division and all that our in-house options may need is just need a chance to be successful. Filling your roster with veterans really doesn't give the young players that opportunity and, as I said, you wind up throwing away for nothing prospects just because they are not the next coming of Francisco Lindor. Bad business for a small market team, in my opinion.
Friday, December 22, 2017
Thursday, December 14, 2017
Comments about the winter meetings
You know, this type of post is usually called "Musings about the winter meetings"
Problem is, I am not a-MUSED. It is more like I am a-PO'd. When I am mad I write a lot. So bear with me.
So far here is what we know:
1. Joe Smith signed with the Astros. As I said at the time, getting Joe Smith was a bad trade. In my opinion we gave away WAY too much for a rental of a middle reliever. In the end, we win the division without Joe Smith and, at worst, we do as bad in the playoffs as we did, losing in the first round. I know trade deadline acquisitions sometime don't make any difference. However, this one will hurt for years to come if Thomas Pannone and Samad Taylor even just scratch the surface of their potential worth. I saw no other team make this kind of one-sided trade at the deadline but more on that below. Plus, Smith signing with the Astros hurts our chances of making the WS again.
2. Shawn Armstrong traded for 500 K of international signing money. Yes, this gives us some money to use to sign some of the Braves signees who were thrown back into the mix by the commissioner. However, since the commissioner already said that teams can borrow against next year's pool to sign guys now AND since the Indians don't often sign more than one high profile guy anyway AND since you can always trade someone next spring to get extra bonus money, what is the big deal with making this deal now? Yes Armstrong is out of options but 500K is not that much considering that the Mariners had already given 1 MM for a fringe prospect minor leaguer. Look, no one should think that I believe that Shawn Armstrong is the second coming of Cody Allen or anything and I know he was out of options but, bottom line, precedent tells me we didn't have to do this trade now and, if we DID make this trade we should have gotten more international bonus money out of it than we did. Plus, with the loss of Joe Smith, it's not like we didn't need options for the bullpen.
3. Rumors of a trade of Danny Salazar to the Cubs are swirling. No problem, as long as we rob the other team. We are already down a couple of solid relievers from last year and, truth be told, we have only 6 solid starters counting Salazar. It doesn't take a pessimist to predict that we might only have 5 starters available by next opening day...just a realist. So, if you want to trade Salazar and leave Ryan Merritt as your next starter option if one of the remaining starters get hurt, you better damn well get Anthony Rizzo back. Just on paper, this type of move looks like the Indians of the '80s, trading pitching for hitting and then finding that they don't have enough pitching, trading hitting for pitching. Hey, dangle any of the starters for hitting. That's fine. Just let's get a king's ransom back because we don't have a lot of starting pitching depth to play with in Cleveland.
4. I am a little worried about the Indians' ability to pull off a trade that doesn't favor the other team more than us. Yes, we have a limited window but if you look down our roster and prospect lists (see below) you can see that there is not much to help us once that window starts to close. The Joe Smith trade talked about above is the perfect example of the kind of overpayment I see them making on a grander scale this winter or next July. I see the Indians robbing Peter (our farm system) to pay Paul (our major league team) without much consideration of getting fair value back. The issue with this is that it weakens the farm system for a team that is unlikely to jump into the US free agent pool feet first and has not been willing to sign high profile international amateur or international professional free agents. Any time there is a bidding war we just sit back and wait to see if it evaporates with the attempt to sweep in and get a guy. I understand that we are a small market team but now is the time we need to replenish our farm system or in 5 years we will be the worst team in baseball. If we don't go all in with amateur guys right now we are in trouble.
Along those lines we could have easily matched or exceeded what the Cardinals paid for Marcell Ozuna. Ozuna will not be a free agent until 2020. Chris Antonneti said that he is looking for assets good for more than one year. Ozuna fit that bill but, for whatever reason (maybe they think 2017 was his career year, which is possible), we whiffed on that trade.
5. Going into the Rule 5 draft the Indians were one of only 6 clubs who did not have a single one of their top 30 prospects eligible for the Rule 5 draft. This is the result of having a lot of their top prospects making the majors this year or being traded and the rest being recently drafted/signed who are not yet rule 5-eligible. It also reflects some of their top draft picks like Mike Papi not panning out as expected. Only 3 of their top 30 prospects even had to be protected from the Rule 5 draft and they all were protected by the deadline in November for setting rosters. As I posted at the time the decisions weren't that hard and even the fringe prospects who weren't protected would not likely be lost as they were unlikely to stick on other major league rosters. I thought we might lose Rob Kaminsky because he is a LHP and because he was injured which could give the drafting team extra time to develop him (as with Anthony Santander last year). In the end, the Indians lost Jordan Milbrath (26 year old RH relief pitcher who has not made it past AA yet) in the major league phase. They selected no on in the major league phase. Milbrath will have to stick with the Pirates all year or be offered back to the Indians. He is unlikely to stick with the Pirates even as a mop-up man so we should be getting him back.
In the minor league portion where we don't get the players back, the Indians lost Junior Soto, an OFer who, while 20, has spent 4 years and not made it past low class A where he batted .172 last year and Ivan Castillo, a 22 year old SS who has been in the organization and finally made it to AA this year where he hit .203. We selected R.C. Orlan, a 27 year old LHP who has not pitched above AA yet.
In summary, the 2017 Rule 5 draft was a yawner for the Indians as expected. While it is a good thing not to lose players it also shows that the organizational depth of players who can help at the big league level is not there. To me it signals that what is on our 40 man roster is what we will have to pick from to help the Indians early next year. Not surprising but you would like to see one or two minor leaguers jump up to help your ML team every year. I think the draft results support that this is not likely to happen in 2018.
One other Rule 5 draft note. Anthony Santander has 44 days left that he has to be on the Orioles major league roster next year for the Orioles not to have to return him. Given that the Orioles were the only team in the majors who selected THREE players in this year's ML portion of the Rule 5 draft, I think they are looking to the future which, to me, completely eliminates any possibility of him returning to the Indians. It is a shame because the organizational depth last year was just enough to keep Santander, probably a top 15 prospect on the Indians, from being protected. They thought his injury would keep him from being selected but, instead, it was used against the Indians to get Santander more seasoning and allowing him to only be on the roster after the Orioles were essentially eliminated from the pennant race, picking up 46 days of active roster time, most of that in baseball's equivalent of basketball's garbage time...September.
Problem is, I am not a-MUSED. It is more like I am a-PO'd. When I am mad I write a lot. So bear with me.
So far here is what we know:
1. Joe Smith signed with the Astros. As I said at the time, getting Joe Smith was a bad trade. In my opinion we gave away WAY too much for a rental of a middle reliever. In the end, we win the division without Joe Smith and, at worst, we do as bad in the playoffs as we did, losing in the first round. I know trade deadline acquisitions sometime don't make any difference. However, this one will hurt for years to come if Thomas Pannone and Samad Taylor even just scratch the surface of their potential worth. I saw no other team make this kind of one-sided trade at the deadline but more on that below. Plus, Smith signing with the Astros hurts our chances of making the WS again.
2. Shawn Armstrong traded for 500 K of international signing money. Yes, this gives us some money to use to sign some of the Braves signees who were thrown back into the mix by the commissioner. However, since the commissioner already said that teams can borrow against next year's pool to sign guys now AND since the Indians don't often sign more than one high profile guy anyway AND since you can always trade someone next spring to get extra bonus money, what is the big deal with making this deal now? Yes Armstrong is out of options but 500K is not that much considering that the Mariners had already given 1 MM for a fringe prospect minor leaguer. Look, no one should think that I believe that Shawn Armstrong is the second coming of Cody Allen or anything and I know he was out of options but, bottom line, precedent tells me we didn't have to do this trade now and, if we DID make this trade we should have gotten more international bonus money out of it than we did. Plus, with the loss of Joe Smith, it's not like we didn't need options for the bullpen.
3. Rumors of a trade of Danny Salazar to the Cubs are swirling. No problem, as long as we rob the other team. We are already down a couple of solid relievers from last year and, truth be told, we have only 6 solid starters counting Salazar. It doesn't take a pessimist to predict that we might only have 5 starters available by next opening day...just a realist. So, if you want to trade Salazar and leave Ryan Merritt as your next starter option if one of the remaining starters get hurt, you better damn well get Anthony Rizzo back. Just on paper, this type of move looks like the Indians of the '80s, trading pitching for hitting and then finding that they don't have enough pitching, trading hitting for pitching. Hey, dangle any of the starters for hitting. That's fine. Just let's get a king's ransom back because we don't have a lot of starting pitching depth to play with in Cleveland.
4. I am a little worried about the Indians' ability to pull off a trade that doesn't favor the other team more than us. Yes, we have a limited window but if you look down our roster and prospect lists (see below) you can see that there is not much to help us once that window starts to close. The Joe Smith trade talked about above is the perfect example of the kind of overpayment I see them making on a grander scale this winter or next July. I see the Indians robbing Peter (our farm system) to pay Paul (our major league team) without much consideration of getting fair value back. The issue with this is that it weakens the farm system for a team that is unlikely to jump into the US free agent pool feet first and has not been willing to sign high profile international amateur or international professional free agents. Any time there is a bidding war we just sit back and wait to see if it evaporates with the attempt to sweep in and get a guy. I understand that we are a small market team but now is the time we need to replenish our farm system or in 5 years we will be the worst team in baseball. If we don't go all in with amateur guys right now we are in trouble.
Along those lines we could have easily matched or exceeded what the Cardinals paid for Marcell Ozuna. Ozuna will not be a free agent until 2020. Chris Antonneti said that he is looking for assets good for more than one year. Ozuna fit that bill but, for whatever reason (maybe they think 2017 was his career year, which is possible), we whiffed on that trade.
5. Going into the Rule 5 draft the Indians were one of only 6 clubs who did not have a single one of their top 30 prospects eligible for the Rule 5 draft. This is the result of having a lot of their top prospects making the majors this year or being traded and the rest being recently drafted/signed who are not yet rule 5-eligible. It also reflects some of their top draft picks like Mike Papi not panning out as expected. Only 3 of their top 30 prospects even had to be protected from the Rule 5 draft and they all were protected by the deadline in November for setting rosters. As I posted at the time the decisions weren't that hard and even the fringe prospects who weren't protected would not likely be lost as they were unlikely to stick on other major league rosters. I thought we might lose Rob Kaminsky because he is a LHP and because he was injured which could give the drafting team extra time to develop him (as with Anthony Santander last year). In the end, the Indians lost Jordan Milbrath (26 year old RH relief pitcher who has not made it past AA yet) in the major league phase. They selected no on in the major league phase. Milbrath will have to stick with the Pirates all year or be offered back to the Indians. He is unlikely to stick with the Pirates even as a mop-up man so we should be getting him back.
In the minor league portion where we don't get the players back, the Indians lost Junior Soto, an OFer who, while 20, has spent 4 years and not made it past low class A where he batted .172 last year and Ivan Castillo, a 22 year old SS who has been in the organization and finally made it to AA this year where he hit .203. We selected R.C. Orlan, a 27 year old LHP who has not pitched above AA yet.
In summary, the 2017 Rule 5 draft was a yawner for the Indians as expected. While it is a good thing not to lose players it also shows that the organizational depth of players who can help at the big league level is not there. To me it signals that what is on our 40 man roster is what we will have to pick from to help the Indians early next year. Not surprising but you would like to see one or two minor leaguers jump up to help your ML team every year. I think the draft results support that this is not likely to happen in 2018.
One other Rule 5 draft note. Anthony Santander has 44 days left that he has to be on the Orioles major league roster next year for the Orioles not to have to return him. Given that the Orioles were the only team in the majors who selected THREE players in this year's ML portion of the Rule 5 draft, I think they are looking to the future which, to me, completely eliminates any possibility of him returning to the Indians. It is a shame because the organizational depth last year was just enough to keep Santander, probably a top 15 prospect on the Indians, from being protected. They thought his injury would keep him from being selected but, instead, it was used against the Indians to get Santander more seasoning and allowing him to only be on the roster after the Orioles were essentially eliminated from the pennant race, picking up 46 days of active roster time, most of that in baseball's equivalent of basketball's garbage time...September.
Monday, December 4, 2017
A little of this and a little of that
This is a baseball blog, I know. But this is the winter and baseball news is slow to develop so let's branch out.
1. Indians/free agents/trades - The Indians need a RH hitting OFer, preferably a right fielder. As I said before the guy who makes the most sense is Giancarlo Stanton. Of course, Stanton won't even go to a baseball Meccha like St. Louis and so he ain't coming here. We can afford to go bargain basement right now and a guy like Matt Adams makes some sense. Ditto for the bullpen. As far as trade bait, besides the minor leaguers I might consider this:
a. Our most tradeable asset is Bradley Zimmer. If the price is right I trade him in a heart beat. But the price has to be right.
b. I don't trade Erik Gonzalez under any circumstances. Why? Because his value to the Indians is much greater than his value in trade, which is very little.
c. By this time next year Gio Urshela might have been released. But, right now, he is organizational depth without much trade value. He stays.
d. If Lonnie Chisenhall and Jason Kipnis hadn't gotten hurt they would have been great trade bait. I think if they have bouince back seasons they are more value to the Indians than as a throw-in to a trade. I will be coming up with some potential trades before we get to the baseball meetings on Dec. 10th. Right now, though, I don't see a lot we have to trade as we are solid all the way through the roster and need all those guys. Now, I guy or two or three from the minors gets to the majors and shows their ability to replace current roster players and I will take back what I said.
2. Ohio State and the football playoffs. Alabama didn't deserve it. Wisconsin didn't deserve it after they lost to the Buckeyes. But Ohio State didn't deserve it, either. So no whining in football. If they had gotten in it would have been a lot like last year.
3. The Cleveland Cavaliers - Is the whole freakin' league rebuilding? It was an embarrassment to lose against teams early. But now that the league is sorting itself out we get a look at how weak the rest of the Eastern Division is. In fact, the bottom half of the Western Division is probably weaker than the bottom half of the Eastern Division. There are no words!
4. The Cleveland Browns - To quote Jodie Foster in the movie Contact, "no words. There are no words". She was talking about something mind blowing. I am not.
5. The Indians not making the semifinals of the Ohtani sweepstakes. How many good Japanese restaurants per capita are there in Cleveland.
1. Indians/free agents/trades - The Indians need a RH hitting OFer, preferably a right fielder. As I said before the guy who makes the most sense is Giancarlo Stanton. Of course, Stanton won't even go to a baseball Meccha like St. Louis and so he ain't coming here. We can afford to go bargain basement right now and a guy like Matt Adams makes some sense. Ditto for the bullpen. As far as trade bait, besides the minor leaguers I might consider this:
a. Our most tradeable asset is Bradley Zimmer. If the price is right I trade him in a heart beat. But the price has to be right.
b. I don't trade Erik Gonzalez under any circumstances. Why? Because his value to the Indians is much greater than his value in trade, which is very little.
c. By this time next year Gio Urshela might have been released. But, right now, he is organizational depth without much trade value. He stays.
d. If Lonnie Chisenhall and Jason Kipnis hadn't gotten hurt they would have been great trade bait. I think if they have bouince back seasons they are more value to the Indians than as a throw-in to a trade. I will be coming up with some potential trades before we get to the baseball meetings on Dec. 10th. Right now, though, I don't see a lot we have to trade as we are solid all the way through the roster and need all those guys. Now, I guy or two or three from the minors gets to the majors and shows their ability to replace current roster players and I will take back what I said.
2. Ohio State and the football playoffs. Alabama didn't deserve it. Wisconsin didn't deserve it after they lost to the Buckeyes. But Ohio State didn't deserve it, either. So no whining in football. If they had gotten in it would have been a lot like last year.
3. The Cleveland Cavaliers - Is the whole freakin' league rebuilding? It was an embarrassment to lose against teams early. But now that the league is sorting itself out we get a look at how weak the rest of the Eastern Division is. In fact, the bottom half of the Western Division is probably weaker than the bottom half of the Eastern Division. There are no words!
4. The Cleveland Browns - To quote Jodie Foster in the movie Contact, "no words. There are no words". She was talking about something mind blowing. I am not.
5. The Indians not making the semifinals of the Ohtani sweepstakes. How many good Japanese restaurants per capita are there in Cleveland.
Tuesday, November 21, 2017
HOF ballot this year
There is always enough Indians stuff to talk about that it is hard to fit in a post about baseball (or other things) not involving the current Cleveland Indians organization. But it is HOF ballot time and time to weigh in on that ballot. Here is the list and my comments on each:
General: First, I love the big Red machine. I was in Cincinnati during that time and, while being an Indians' fan, loved watching winning, history-making baseball. That being said, the inclusion of Tony Perez into the HOF has created problems for me ever since. Hey, Perez was a very, very solid player, maybe even great at times but, in my opinion, there are hundreds of guys like him who aren't in the HOF and, frankly, shouldn't be...just like Perez.
I think this year's HOF ballot gives us a chance to separate great players from HOF players, the way it should be. I think this ballot also has guys on it who will eventually make it through the veteran committee process, like Perez probably should have.
I think Chipper Jones, Jim Thome and Omar Vizquel will get in, although I worry about Thome being thrown out with the dirty PED bathwater. There are probably more non-PED guys worthy of getting in but I think they will split the vote between them with a few more guys than normal just falling short.
Here are my individual comments:
Barry Bonds - Unfortunately, like Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire, Pete Rose and Shoeless Joe Jackson, there are a lot of reasons other than performance that will keep statistically-deserving players out. So, no on Bonds.
Chris Carpenter - Good when he was good but not even long enough to earn a second year on the ballot.
Roger Clemens - See Bonds.
Johnny Damon - not even at Perez's level. This should be his first and last year on the ballot.
Vladimir Guerrero - Here is a guy, like Kirby Puckett, who was so good so long he should be in the HOF. Yeah, injuries made it so he didn't have eye-popping, no-doubt career numbers but he should be there.
Livan Hernandez - TCahe Cuban guys are tough but I think he falls short as it is too hard to predict a full career for him that would make him HOF-worthy.
Trevor Hoffman, - The voters love him but will that love go away this year with the ballot being as stuffed as it is? I hope he makes it this year but I doubt he will.
Orlando Hudson - No
Jason Isinghausen - Part of the reason that Hoffman may not make it is that some voters may be split between him and Isringhausen. Got to meet the man this past year because his daughter played volleyball at the same school my daughter did. He is a good guy who I saw pitch for years in St. Louis. I think he is borderline HOF material and I hope he eventually makes it.
Andruw Jones - I love this Jones but, using my Tony Perez yardstick, I think Jones falls short of Perez and so doesn't get in.
Chipper Jones - Normally I would say first ballot HOFer and he may do that. In this year, however, he may fall just short making him an easy second ballot HOFer.
Jeff Kent - Just like Tony Perez, Kent dominated a relatively weak offensive group at second base, especially power-wise, during his career. That being said, he falls short of Perez and so definitely short of the HOF.
Carlos Lee - To me, just a really good player, but not a HOFer
Brad Lidge - Good but not a HOFer and certainly not while Hoffman and Isringhausen are on the ballet.
Edgar Martinez - The best DH of all time but, on this ballot, and in this era where everyone hits, and the fact that he wasn't really a rounded player being a DH, I don't see him getting in, maybe ever, when you use the Tony Perez as the bottom rung argument. Plus, there is Thome if you want a mostly-DH guy, at least later in his career.
Hidecki Matsui - One of the first big Japenese imports, you have to question whether he should have his Japanese stats factored in. I say no and to all those who say 'yes', then Julio Franco should already be in the HOF as his foreign stats put him well over 3000 hits, among other normal HOF indicators.
Fred McGriff - See Tony Perez. McGriff was a great player but not HOF material.
Kevin Millwood - Very solid ML player. No HOFer, though.
Jamie Moyer - Like Julio Franco, this guy played so long that he might be on the HOF ballot AND be considered by the Veterans' committee in the same year (JK). When Franco gets in, so should Moyer.
Mike Mussina - I don't get it. He should get in but I guess his numbers are not so overwhelming that people just ignore him. He will get in one day but it may be at the Veterans' Committee level.
Manny Ramirez - PEDs will keep him out but it might be a blessing in disguise. He might have embarrassed himself by getting lost and missing his own induction.
Scott Rolen - I wish he could get in. By the Perez yardstick maybe he makes it. However, I think the list will be so good for so many years now that Rolen won't get in. And, frankly, he was just a really, really, solid player but falls just short of HOF numbers.
Johan Santana - Not good enough for long enough.
Curt Schilling, - See Mussina
Gary Sheffield, - No
Sammy Sosa - No
Jim Thome - Look, he is in if I have a ballot. As has been said by others, he is a certified slugger but without the PED stigma. He would have been Ruthian if he played when Ruth played.
Omar Vizquel - I have had the pleasure of watching two of the greatest, if not the two greatest, defensive shortstops of all time, repeatedly and in person: Ozzie Smith and Omar Vizquel. Omar is a first ballot HOFer as his offense, like that of Smith, improved over the course of his career while maintaining HOF defense. Vizquel should be in.
Billy Wagner - See Brad Lidge
Larry Walker - Solid but no HOFer.
Kerry Wood - If you got into the HOF for pre-career hype and your first couple of years of performance Wood is in. Unfortunately the HOF path is a marathon and Wood ran a world class 100 meter dash in that path.
Carlos Zambrano - On weak ballot years a guy like Zambrano might hang around a couple of years before being taken off the ballot for low vote totals. With this list, however, Zambrano is likely not to be on next year's ballot.
General: First, I love the big Red machine. I was in Cincinnati during that time and, while being an Indians' fan, loved watching winning, history-making baseball. That being said, the inclusion of Tony Perez into the HOF has created problems for me ever since. Hey, Perez was a very, very solid player, maybe even great at times but, in my opinion, there are hundreds of guys like him who aren't in the HOF and, frankly, shouldn't be...just like Perez.
I think this year's HOF ballot gives us a chance to separate great players from HOF players, the way it should be. I think this ballot also has guys on it who will eventually make it through the veteran committee process, like Perez probably should have.
I think Chipper Jones, Jim Thome and Omar Vizquel will get in, although I worry about Thome being thrown out with the dirty PED bathwater. There are probably more non-PED guys worthy of getting in but I think they will split the vote between them with a few more guys than normal just falling short.
Here are my individual comments:
Barry Bonds - Unfortunately, like Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire, Pete Rose and Shoeless Joe Jackson, there are a lot of reasons other than performance that will keep statistically-deserving players out. So, no on Bonds.
Chris Carpenter - Good when he was good but not even long enough to earn a second year on the ballot.
Roger Clemens - See Bonds.
Johnny Damon - not even at Perez's level. This should be his first and last year on the ballot.
Vladimir Guerrero - Here is a guy, like Kirby Puckett, who was so good so long he should be in the HOF. Yeah, injuries made it so he didn't have eye-popping, no-doubt career numbers but he should be there.
Livan Hernandez - TCahe Cuban guys are tough but I think he falls short as it is too hard to predict a full career for him that would make him HOF-worthy.
Trevor Hoffman, - The voters love him but will that love go away this year with the ballot being as stuffed as it is? I hope he makes it this year but I doubt he will.
Orlando Hudson - No
Jason Isinghausen - Part of the reason that Hoffman may not make it is that some voters may be split between him and Isringhausen. Got to meet the man this past year because his daughter played volleyball at the same school my daughter did. He is a good guy who I saw pitch for years in St. Louis. I think he is borderline HOF material and I hope he eventually makes it.
Andruw Jones - I love this Jones but, using my Tony Perez yardstick, I think Jones falls short of Perez and so doesn't get in.
Chipper Jones - Normally I would say first ballot HOFer and he may do that. In this year, however, he may fall just short making him an easy second ballot HOFer.
Jeff Kent - Just like Tony Perez, Kent dominated a relatively weak offensive group at second base, especially power-wise, during his career. That being said, he falls short of Perez and so definitely short of the HOF.
Carlos Lee - To me, just a really good player, but not a HOFer
Brad Lidge - Good but not a HOFer and certainly not while Hoffman and Isringhausen are on the ballet.
Edgar Martinez - The best DH of all time but, on this ballot, and in this era where everyone hits, and the fact that he wasn't really a rounded player being a DH, I don't see him getting in, maybe ever, when you use the Tony Perez as the bottom rung argument. Plus, there is Thome if you want a mostly-DH guy, at least later in his career.
Hidecki Matsui - One of the first big Japenese imports, you have to question whether he should have his Japanese stats factored in. I say no and to all those who say 'yes', then Julio Franco should already be in the HOF as his foreign stats put him well over 3000 hits, among other normal HOF indicators.
Fred McGriff - See Tony Perez. McGriff was a great player but not HOF material.
Kevin Millwood - Very solid ML player. No HOFer, though.
Jamie Moyer - Like Julio Franco, this guy played so long that he might be on the HOF ballot AND be considered by the Veterans' committee in the same year (JK). When Franco gets in, so should Moyer.
Mike Mussina - I don't get it. He should get in but I guess his numbers are not so overwhelming that people just ignore him. He will get in one day but it may be at the Veterans' Committee level.
Manny Ramirez - PEDs will keep him out but it might be a blessing in disguise. He might have embarrassed himself by getting lost and missing his own induction.
Scott Rolen - I wish he could get in. By the Perez yardstick maybe he makes it. However, I think the list will be so good for so many years now that Rolen won't get in. And, frankly, he was just a really, really, solid player but falls just short of HOF numbers.
Johan Santana - Not good enough for long enough.
Curt Schilling, - See Mussina
Gary Sheffield, - No
Sammy Sosa - No
Jim Thome - Look, he is in if I have a ballot. As has been said by others, he is a certified slugger but without the PED stigma. He would have been Ruthian if he played when Ruth played.
Omar Vizquel - I have had the pleasure of watching two of the greatest, if not the two greatest, defensive shortstops of all time, repeatedly and in person: Ozzie Smith and Omar Vizquel. Omar is a first ballot HOFer as his offense, like that of Smith, improved over the course of his career while maintaining HOF defense. Vizquel should be in.
Billy Wagner - See Brad Lidge
Larry Walker - Solid but no HOFer.
Kerry Wood - If you got into the HOF for pre-career hype and your first couple of years of performance Wood is in. Unfortunately the HOF path is a marathon and Wood ran a world class 100 meter dash in that path.
Carlos Zambrano - On weak ballot years a guy like Zambrano might hang around a couple of years before being taken off the ballot for low vote totals. With this list, however, Zambrano is likely not to be on next year's ballot.
40 man roster decisions and other related things
First, as I previously posted, the 40 man roster decisions were pretty easy for the Indians. Adding Chang, Castro and Merryweather were no brainers. Leaving off Papi, Nellie Rodriguez and Rob Kaminsky were no brainers, either. Papi has been mediocre his who career, Rodriguez regressed dramatically last year and is a tough fit as a RH first baseman. Kaminsky was hurt all year.
Adding Eric Stamets to the roster is a bit of a surprise. His surprising power surge this year may have accounted for his addition. Adding Rob Refsnyder on waivers is also a bit of a surprise.
Regarding the Rule 5 draft that is built off the prospects teams don't put on their 40 man rosters at this time of year, look for the Indians not to lose anyone with the exception of maybe Kaminsky in the ML portion of the draft, although it is a pretty good shot that Kaminsky will get drafted by some team. They may or may not draft a guy in ML portion and are likely not to, given their very low slot in the Rule 5 draft. That being said, Anthony Santander, a good Indians prospect, made it until the second round of the ML portion last year so the Indians could still find a hidden gem near the end of the first round. Looking at the lack of even fringe Indians prospects who are Rule 5 eligible and the size of the Columbus reserve list, I don't see the Indians losing guys in the minor league portion, either. Since the Indians have not been major players in selecting guys in the minor league portion of the Rule 5, I see the entire Rule 5 draft to be very quiet vis-à-vis the Indians, with the exception of maybe losing Kaminsky.
DFAing Kyle Crockett is no surprise as he has lost favor within the organization since his uber-successful ML debut in 2015. Ditto for DFAing Dylan Baker as he has pitched great but has almost always been hurt since he was drafted. I think Crockett will find work elsewhere but I hope the Indians re-sign Baker. If they sign either of these guys to minor league deals in the next few weeks they would be eligible for the Rule 5 draft with a high likelihood, I think, of them being selected by another club. So, if we re-sign them, look for it to be after January 1st.
Regarding 6 year minor league free agents who were in the Indians organization last year, Ronny Rodriguez and Tim Cooney are the most intriguing for the Indians. Cooney was actually in the Indians' top 30 prospects last winter but barely got on the mound for the AZL Indians at the end of this season after being out with an arm injury most of the year. Rodriguez has shown his versatility and a little pop at AAA but the Indians letting him go, adding Stamets to the roster and protecting catcher Eric Haase from 6 year minor league free agency by adding him to the 40 man says the Indians don't think Rodriguez has a future with this club. Other notables who became minor league free agents were Joe Colon, Michael Martinez, Adam Moore and Chris Narveson (all with previous ML experience) and minor league fringe prospects Luis Lugo, Luigi Rodriguez and Jeff Johnson. All of these guys might end up in the big leagues at some point but there are many more like these guys from other clubs who just became minor league free agents. The Indians will re-sign a few of these guys and sign some other guys. Frankly, the Indians have not really done well finding hidden gems or guys they can develop in these career minor leaguers so let's hope they have someone really good (like the guy(s) who suggested signing Dan Otero) analyzing these lists and they come up with some help for the big league club in 2018 from other teams' discards.
Adding Eric Stamets to the roster is a bit of a surprise. His surprising power surge this year may have accounted for his addition. Adding Rob Refsnyder on waivers is also a bit of a surprise.
Regarding the Rule 5 draft that is built off the prospects teams don't put on their 40 man rosters at this time of year, look for the Indians not to lose anyone with the exception of maybe Kaminsky in the ML portion of the draft, although it is a pretty good shot that Kaminsky will get drafted by some team. They may or may not draft a guy in ML portion and are likely not to, given their very low slot in the Rule 5 draft. That being said, Anthony Santander, a good Indians prospect, made it until the second round of the ML portion last year so the Indians could still find a hidden gem near the end of the first round. Looking at the lack of even fringe Indians prospects who are Rule 5 eligible and the size of the Columbus reserve list, I don't see the Indians losing guys in the minor league portion, either. Since the Indians have not been major players in selecting guys in the minor league portion of the Rule 5, I see the entire Rule 5 draft to be very quiet vis-à-vis the Indians, with the exception of maybe losing Kaminsky.
DFAing Kyle Crockett is no surprise as he has lost favor within the organization since his uber-successful ML debut in 2015. Ditto for DFAing Dylan Baker as he has pitched great but has almost always been hurt since he was drafted. I think Crockett will find work elsewhere but I hope the Indians re-sign Baker. If they sign either of these guys to minor league deals in the next few weeks they would be eligible for the Rule 5 draft with a high likelihood, I think, of them being selected by another club. So, if we re-sign them, look for it to be after January 1st.
Regarding 6 year minor league free agents who were in the Indians organization last year, Ronny Rodriguez and Tim Cooney are the most intriguing for the Indians. Cooney was actually in the Indians' top 30 prospects last winter but barely got on the mound for the AZL Indians at the end of this season after being out with an arm injury most of the year. Rodriguez has shown his versatility and a little pop at AAA but the Indians letting him go, adding Stamets to the roster and protecting catcher Eric Haase from 6 year minor league free agency by adding him to the 40 man says the Indians don't think Rodriguez has a future with this club. Other notables who became minor league free agents were Joe Colon, Michael Martinez, Adam Moore and Chris Narveson (all with previous ML experience) and minor league fringe prospects Luis Lugo, Luigi Rodriguez and Jeff Johnson. All of these guys might end up in the big leagues at some point but there are many more like these guys from other clubs who just became minor league free agents. The Indians will re-sign a few of these guys and sign some other guys. Frankly, the Indians have not really done well finding hidden gems or guys they can develop in these career minor leaguers so let's hope they have someone really good (like the guy(s) who suggested signing Dan Otero) analyzing these lists and they come up with some help for the big league club in 2018 from other teams' discards.
Friday, November 10, 2017
What to do with Carlos Santana
We have already made Carlos a qualifying offer. In addition to that I would make him a $56 million 4 year deal offer with a $15 million 5th year club option with a $1 million buyout.
This is probably a fair offer and it sets the bar so that any team to beat it would likely have to outbid the Indians, meaning that his contract would probably be around $60 million or more it would cross the threshold for getting us a draft pick if he signs elsewhere.
So, make him a fair offer that crosses the $50 million threshold and make it for a number of years such that the yearly value and overall value are reasonable for his abilities. I think this offer does that. He might accept less overall but more per year that would cause the Indians not to get a draft pick if he left but the length and value of the offer above and the fact he gets to stay in Cleveland would outweigh any amount per year he could get elsewhere.
Of course, if we don't do that it means either we are sure he will get over $50 from someone or the Indians don't think, because of things you and I don't know about Santana, that making him a long-term offer might not be the best business decision.
This is probably a fair offer and it sets the bar so that any team to beat it would likely have to outbid the Indians, meaning that his contract would probably be around $60 million or more it would cross the threshold for getting us a draft pick if he signs elsewhere.
So, make him a fair offer that crosses the $50 million threshold and make it for a number of years such that the yearly value and overall value are reasonable for his abilities. I think this offer does that. He might accept less overall but more per year that would cause the Indians not to get a draft pick if he left but the length and value of the offer above and the fact he gets to stay in Cleveland would outweigh any amount per year he could get elsewhere.
Of course, if we don't do that it means either we are sure he will get over $50 from someone or the Indians don't think, because of things you and I don't know about Santana, that making him a long-term offer might not be the best business decision.
Tuesday, November 7, 2017
It's go time. How do we protect our assets - Rule 5 draft
This will be the first in a series of articles on how we approach this off-season.
Here are some thoughts about what we need to do relative to finalizing the 40 man roster in anticipation for the Rule 5 draft:
Wow, for the first time in my memory as I look through the list of players eligible for the Rule 5 draft this year I don't really see anyone who needs to be added to the major league roster. Guys like Francisco Mejia, Greg Allen and Bradley Zimmer are already solidly on the roster and borderline guys like Adam Plutko, Ryan Merritt and Shawn Morimando have upside and options left. In the entire minor league system the only guys I see who I might think to add to the roster are Julian Merryweather, Nellie Rodriguez and Mike Papi. The former is questionable and, at this point, Papi hasn't shown that he is (and maybe ever will be) major league ready. This is a scout's call on Merryweather. That is, can he help us in the bullpen at some point this year or in the rotation next year AND is he attractive to other teams as a Rule 5 pick? Papi doesn't seem to be the kind of guy who gets drafted. Rodriguez has a chance to be drafted after the way Jesus Aguilar performed in Milwaukee this year. However, when you can't hit .200 in AAA in a hitters park like Columbus, you don't generally get drafted in the Rule 5. There are a slew of minor league relievers who could get drafted but I don't see them adding any of them to the major league roster at this point as each appears right now to be replaceable. When you consider Shawn Armstrong's minor league stats and seeing how he is a fringe ML player right now, I hope you can see where I am coming from.
Papi and some of the minor league relievers could still have some level of ML career. Right now I don't see that as being significant and so I don't see anyone being drafted. Remember, this is coming from the guy who told you that Hector Rondon was going to be drafted and that, in less than a year, he was going to be the Cubs closer, both of which turned out to be true.
Also, I see the upper levels of our farm system being weak so the reserved list at Columbus (guys not on the 40 man roster but only eligible for the ML Rule 5, not either of the minor league phases) would seem to have a lot of space on it for any guy who is Rule 5 eligible and has even a ghost of chance to develop into a fringe ML player. So, if we protect our guys appropriately I don't even see anyone of significance being lost in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft.
As far as adding players from the Rule 5, we will have to wait and see who is available. At this point our only needs would be a RH relief pitcher and an outfielder with power. I think we are covered at other positions. Given how poor our track record is on picking the right guys to draft in the ML Rule 5, you might see us pass, especially since we would be drafting at the end of the round after all the intriguing prospects have been picked over.
So I think this should be a quiet draft for the Indians, both in terms of drafting and losing prospects and, for the first time in a while, we may ADD more guys than we lose, although I don't know how significant any of the additions would be on the immediate or long-term future of the Indians.
Here are some thoughts about what we need to do relative to finalizing the 40 man roster in anticipation for the Rule 5 draft:
Wow, for the first time in my memory as I look through the list of players eligible for the Rule 5 draft this year I don't really see anyone who needs to be added to the major league roster. Guys like Francisco Mejia, Greg Allen and Bradley Zimmer are already solidly on the roster and borderline guys like Adam Plutko, Ryan Merritt and Shawn Morimando have upside and options left. In the entire minor league system the only guys I see who I might think to add to the roster are Julian Merryweather, Nellie Rodriguez and Mike Papi. The former is questionable and, at this point, Papi hasn't shown that he is (and maybe ever will be) major league ready. This is a scout's call on Merryweather. That is, can he help us in the bullpen at some point this year or in the rotation next year AND is he attractive to other teams as a Rule 5 pick? Papi doesn't seem to be the kind of guy who gets drafted. Rodriguez has a chance to be drafted after the way Jesus Aguilar performed in Milwaukee this year. However, when you can't hit .200 in AAA in a hitters park like Columbus, you don't generally get drafted in the Rule 5. There are a slew of minor league relievers who could get drafted but I don't see them adding any of them to the major league roster at this point as each appears right now to be replaceable. When you consider Shawn Armstrong's minor league stats and seeing how he is a fringe ML player right now, I hope you can see where I am coming from.
Papi and some of the minor league relievers could still have some level of ML career. Right now I don't see that as being significant and so I don't see anyone being drafted. Remember, this is coming from the guy who told you that Hector Rondon was going to be drafted and that, in less than a year, he was going to be the Cubs closer, both of which turned out to be true.
Also, I see the upper levels of our farm system being weak so the reserved list at Columbus (guys not on the 40 man roster but only eligible for the ML Rule 5, not either of the minor league phases) would seem to have a lot of space on it for any guy who is Rule 5 eligible and has even a ghost of chance to develop into a fringe ML player. So, if we protect our guys appropriately I don't even see anyone of significance being lost in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft.
As far as adding players from the Rule 5, we will have to wait and see who is available. At this point our only needs would be a RH relief pitcher and an outfielder with power. I think we are covered at other positions. Given how poor our track record is on picking the right guys to draft in the ML Rule 5, you might see us pass, especially since we would be drafting at the end of the round after all the intriguing prospects have been picked over.
So I think this should be a quiet draft for the Indians, both in terms of drafting and losing prospects and, for the first time in a while, we may ADD more guys than we lose, although I don't know how significant any of the additions would be on the immediate or long-term future of the Indians.
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