Thoughts for a Wednesday night

Today's Game

 These Indians look A LOT like last year's Indians.  That's a good thing, actually.  This weekend will tell more but they may actually have a chance if they can somehow manufacture enough timely hitting.   With the holes in the lineup (Bauers, Hedges, Gamel), the questionable hitters who may be OK over a full season (Gimenez, Naylor) they may still have enough punch to score some runs when Hernandez and Reyes start hitting, assuming Rosario and Jose Ramirez have typical years for them and Roberto Perez stays healthy and reverts to his 2019 form.  

Minor Trades, DFA pickups/losses, Non-tenders, Rule 5 losses

I just don't get it.   I really don't.   Seeing Naquin's 4 HRs and .316 BA so far I thought I would look at who we lost in these minor transactions.   Some of the guys below have 'made it', some are fringe major leaguers, but all have played in the majors. 

C - Eric Haase (cash)

1B - Jesus Aguilar (DFA)

2B - Joey Wendle (Brandon Moss)

SS - Mark Mathias (Andres Melendez)

3B - Gio Urshela (DFA)

LF - Yandy Diaz (Jake Bauers)

CF - Tyler Naquin (Non-tendered)

RF - Anthony Santander (Rule 5)

DH - Ka'ai Tom (Rule 5)

Relief pitcher - Luis Oviedo (Rule 5)

Closer - Julian Merryweather (Josh Donaldson)

How is it that all we got back from these guys were rentals of Moss and Donaldson and  then Bauers and Melendez?  Plus, how is it possible that Aguilar, Wendle, Urshela, Diaz, Santander and, now, Naquin are doing so well once they leave Cleveland?   Shades of Brandon Phillips!  Is it possible that this organization, that is so great at developing pitches is so pathetic at developing hitters that guys only flourish when they LEAVE Cleveland?

Not saying that the lineup above is better than what Cleveland is fielding now but I will say it is closer than it should be.

Makeup of current 40-man roster

Seeing the list above I wanted to see what we have done in these kinds of moves to build our roster.   So let's look at our current 40 man roster:

Draft/International signing - Bieber, Civale, Hentges, Hill, Karinchak, McKenzie, Mejia, Morgan, Nelson, Plesac, Vargas, Roberto Perez, Bradley, Chang, Clement, Jones, J. Ramirez, Zimmer

Large trades:  Logan Allen (Bauer), Clase (Kluber), Moss (Bauer), Quantrill (Clevinger), Hedges (Clevinger), Arias (Clevinger), Gimenez (Lindor/Carrasco), A. Rosario (Lindor/Carrasco), Naylor (Clevinger), Reyes (Bauer).

Free agents: O. Perez, B. Shaw, Hernandez, E. Rosario, Gamel

Minor deals : Daniel Johnson (Gomes), Harold Ramirez (cash), Oscar Mercado (Jhon Torres (Cards #19 prospect), Conner Capel (Cards minor league prospect)), Jordan Luplow (Erik Gonzalez), Wittgren (Jordan Milbrath), Stephan (Rule 5), Maton (cash), Bauers (Y. Diaz)

Compare that to the list above:

Eric Haase (cash), Jesus Aguilar (DFA), Joey Wendle (Brandon Moss), Mark Mathias (Andres Melendez), Gio Urshela (DFA), Yandy Diaz (Jake Bauers), Tyler Naquin (Non-tendered), Anthony Santander (Rule 5), Ka'ai Tom (Rule 5), Luis Oviedo Rule 5), Julian Merryweather (Josh Donaldson)

This is the worst part, actually.   Our current 26-man roster is being helped by Wittgren, Maton and Stephan from this list (not counting Bauers, which I never do!).   While Wittgren has been solid, Luplow and Maton have been OK and Stephan has promise, how does it compare to the guys we let go essentially for nothing?   The truth is it doesn't.   We wasted all the assets above in red and now, in an attempt to make sure we don't do it again, we play Bauers while, by the way, we appear to have done it again with Naquin.  This is crazy and pathetic and infuriating when payroll is being slashed.  

When you have limited resources like the Indians do you cannot afford to have a ledger sheet that looks like this for these kinds of players.   The Indians have screwed up this part of their player development and impacted their performance in the past, now, and likely in the future. 

We just need to do better...and not make any stupid moves like this in the future.  

Thoughts for an off-day: Rule 5 draft, options left, how we are so close but yet so far and another thought on the Lindor trade

In the hangover of a pathetic opening day hitting performance where we had to, once again, see Jake Bauers and Ben Gamel play and Amed Rosario make a clear error that cost us two runs and, to rub salt in the wound

 Rule 5 Draft 

The Indians, with their cheap owner and relatively low revenue stream, are clearly going to continue to be a prospect-driven organization.   That type of organization can't afford to have prospects get away without getting, at least, equal, young, controllable talent back.   It's just the way it has to be.

That being said, the Indians lost two players in the Rule 5 draft this winter, Luis Oviedo and Ka'ai Tom. They got one back in Trevor Stephan.   

Fourteen of the eighteen players drafted have, at this point, stuck with their new teams.   One of those, Dedriel Nunez, has had Tommy John surgery and so won't be on the active roster this year.   Thus 13/18 (72%) began the season on active rosters.   This number is much higher than normal.  Without doing the long term research (because I am lazy) and only using the two previous Rule 5 drafts my impression is that this represents a TOTAL flip of what is usually seen.   That is, about 1/4 of guys selected in the Rule 5 actually stay with their new team or a team that trades for them after the draft.

Teams with two of these players on their active roster this year are the Pirates, Orioles and Marlins.  As far as losing players, besides the Indians, the Dodgers, Twins and Yankees lost two players.   While these sample sizes are small, it looks like the rich teams lose the most and the rebuilding teams take on the most risk by adding guys.   Not surprising.  But why are the Indians in the group with the winning teams?  It's a little concerning that a prospect-coveting team like the Indians would lose an outfielder and a young pitcher.  This is not the first time in recent history this has happened to the Tribe.  Anthony Santander was lost to the Orioles a few years ago and wouldn't he look good in the Indians outfield right now?  It's not like Cleveland has the top farm system in baseball, either.   They have ranked near the middle of the pack or below in the past 4 years so they shouldn't really be losing players in the Rule 5 draft.

And we did this while clogging up a roster spot with Jake Bauers and adding guys like Harold Ramirez to the active roster.    Pathetic, really.  Protect your own guys.

Options Left

We have heard, ad nauseum, really, about how we MIGHT have lost Jake Bauers if we didn't keep him on the roster because Bauers was out of options.   But what has not been mentioned is that when we sent Bobby Bradley down I think we used his last option.   This means that next spring he will be in the same boat as Bauers: If we want to send Bradley to the minors in 2022 he would have to pass through waivers.   If we had kept Bradley instead of Bauers then Bradley would have had an option left if he had struggled.   Just another reason that the Bauers over Bradley decision is a stupid one.

Close but yet so far

We really only needed to fill two positions, CF and 1B.   However, repeating the mistakes of 2020 the Indians went cheap with our options in the OF and were left with Ben Gamel.  Then the Indians chose with our ego instead of our heads and went with Bauers at 1B.  And, on top of that we added two shortstops to our already burgeoning prospect list of SS.   We could have flipped one of those (read Rosario) for a CFer who could have played right now.  

Just a little better GMing with an owner willing to spend a little money and we could be 3-1 right now instead of 1-3 against two of the worst teams in baseball, the Royals and the Tigers.   As I said, all you have to do is see how the Twins demolished the Tigers yesterday after we went 1-2 against then and scored 5 runs in the first 23 innings against their pitching that was bombed by the Twins.  

Again, it starts at the top and Dolan is screwing us and Antonneti and Chernof don't appear to be able to make favorable trades or plan for the future.   It is all reactive crap and that reactive crap is getting us in trouble now and will continue to in the future.

Dolan said yesterday that the first half of this season will be used to evaluate what we have in our young players.   Could that mean that we will have a fire sale in Juley/August if we are out of the race?  With Dolan, that is a distinct possibility.  Maybe it could mean that we will dump Bauers if he doesn't pan out but do you really trust that this is what Dolan means?   I don't.

Lindor Trade 

Like noses, most people have opinions.   You would probably be hard-pressed to find an Indians fan who doesn't have an opinion on trading (and not signing) Lindor.  Many feel we should have signed him to an extension, come hell or high water.   However, the astute fans know that isn't possible.   What fans should be focusing on is that the return we got for Lindor/Carrasco was light and it was pointed towards a position group (middle infielders) that we were overloaded with.  Just a look at the return the Pirates got for Joe Musgrove and the comparison that Carrasco should have netted, by himself, a similar return, tells you it was light.   That's really the key here.   When you make a trade where you give up a star like Lindor and a #2 starter like Carrasco, you need to do well, extremely well.   The sense is that we wanted to dump Lindor, had to throw in Carrasco to get it done, and we had to take the best of a number of bad offers to get it done.  So, in summary, we HAD to trade Lindor.  But to do that and throw in Carrasco and get the return, both in who we got and how many prospects we got, shows that we got screwed in this trade.   "Screwed" in this sense doesn't mean totally robbed.   It means we needed more prospects AND prospects who would help us now and in the future at positions we needed.   Getting two shortstops and two very low level minor leaguers doesn't help the retool and rebuild at all, really, meaning we got screwed in this trade.

And what about the official scorer?

 Look, I know there are rules about official scoring but in those rules there is language that makes in clear that it is that person's judgement, right?

So you are playing in Cleveland and unless they have taken the call out of the hands of the local official scorer and taken it to the national level (might have, don't really know), it should be a local guy's decision, right?  

And, if that person is the official socrer in Cleveland it is safe to say that they are an Indians fan, right?

And, just like if there is a tie that tie goes to the runner you would expect that if there is a very close official scoring decision it should go to the home team, right?  Unless the person is doing it is a pompous a-hole who thinks their stuff doesn't stink, right?

So, given all the above, I fail to see how a ground ball that hits the SS in the chest can ever be ruled an infield hit.   I have seen the replay 5 times now and I just don't see it.

Which brings me, FINALLY, to the reason for this post.   Logan Allen pitched a good game today.  The main blot on that outing was a HR by Whit Merrifield right after that two-out "infield hit" in the 2nd inning.   If that 'hit' is scored an error those runs are unearned.  

Soooooo, you would hope that the official scorer, assuming he is not a pompous a-hole, would change that decision on Tuesday after he had a night to think about that the hit/error decision was a close one and that calling the failure to make a routine play on a medium speed ground ball which hit the SS (who as moving toward first base at the time) in the chest, in Cleveland, with the official scorer also being in Cleveland.

To me, no matter how fast Lopez was running, was an error all the way.  Change the freakin' decision to an error on Amed Rosario and give Allen the clean (ERA-based) outing he deserves.   Hey, it was the only good thing about the game on opening day.  Don't take that away, too.

We now know who we are

 Logan Allen a little shaky but pulled it together.

Triston McKenzie with electric stuff he still needs to control

Other starters and relievers will be solid this year

and...

a bunch of guys who can't hit.

All you have to do is look at two scores today:

Twins 15  Tigers 1 (through 8 1/2 innings) 

This is what a good team does to the Tigers.

Yeah, the Tigers scored 5 in the bottom of the 9th but, still.

Kansas City 3  Cleveland 0

The Indians did this to themselves.   Or should I say the management did this to the the players on the field.

We didn't get enough for Lindor/Carrasco

We didn't flip any of our middle infield prospects to get prospects at different positions (like outfield)

We didn't trade Ahmed Rosario and gamble that Gimenez/Chang would be sufficient to at least hold forth this year until other MIF prospects arrived.

We had holes to fill and we didn't fill them.   Can we fill them this winter?  Yes, after we waste a whole year on control over all of our good players and $55 million in salary.  

We will be lucky to be .500 this year.   Extremely lucky and if it happens it will only be because we have a great manager who, unfortunately, is being hamstrung by a front office who is being hamstrung by a cheap owner.

But, assuming there are no drastic changes in the rules in the next few years, the Indians are set to field a team of really good shortstops in the future.   Here's the alignment they plan to use to maximize their strengths.

I think this could be revolutionary!  At least it is more to look forward to then watching Gamel and Bauers flail pathetically.

Oh, when people tell you how lucky we are to have had all these winning seasons in a row, why don't you google up the St. Louis Cardinals and how many winning records they have had in a row and in the last 20 years.

Thoughts on our first win

We won our first game!  This has great significance as it gives us a little momentum heading into the home opener.  Here are some first-win thoughts:

Civale looked strong after giving up the HRs, following on the solid work done by Beiber and Plesac.   Even though it is a meaningless stat because all runs count, these three combined for 2 runs allowed in 16 innings AFTER the first inning.   

Probably the biggest thing of this game, for me, is how solide Cal Quantrill looked.   Do not sleep on this guy as the closer before this year is out.   Clase throwing 100+ with a workable slider is also exciting.  

It was nice to see that our guys did what we all hoped they would do, hitting-wise.   Rosario drove in runs. Reyes hit a HR.  Luplow hit a LHP hard.   Chang produced offensively like he hinted at in ST II last year and the first half of this spring...and did it without hitting a HR.  Even Austin Hedges showed that he has a (faint) pulse at the plate with a HR.  And we didn't score all of our runs on HRs.   We had some timely hitting, too.  Every starter scored a run, guys hit balls hard.   And we did it without Cesar Hernandez getting a hit!

These are all positive signs.   There are things that should qualify our enthusiasm but I don't know that those are relevant, really, going into the home opener.

Now on to the home opener.   This season can still go way north or way south of mediocre this year.   Time will tell but, in the meantime, we can enjoy this win and look forward to the most exciting day in Indians baseball (until we win a WS)...opening day every year!

We lost another game because of bad management decisions

 There were two balls that our centerfielder should have caught yestereday.  They counted for 3 runs (Castro's triple in the first, Jone's bloop single in the 7th.   

Having Gamel in CF is a mistake.   Heck, having to have Gamel on the team at all is a sign of how poorly this FO is working:

• Getting lower value than they should have for Lindor/Carrasco (see return on Joe Musgrove trade to Padres which should have equated to what we got for Carrasco)
• Not getting (center field, read: Nick Senzel) value for Ahmed Rosario when it was clear that Gimenez was going to be the starter
• Settling on the defensive (and offensive) challenged Gamel in CF instead of just giving the job to the better defender in Zimmer or Mercado.
• Batting the offensively-challenged Gamel leadoff just because it made the rest of the lineup better
• Hamstringing this offense even more by counting on Bauers and Hedges to even be on this team.

Folks, the FO and the manager are choking.   We saw it by the results in spring training.   We saw it on the roster decisions.   Now we are seeing it by the results.

The decisions these people are making are indefensible in terms of winning now or building for the future.  They are, however, defensible if all you are trying to do is save face for bad previous trades and have some weird idea that banishing guys to the minors somehow makes them better and that unfairly doing this somehow will make that player better in the future.

No, people, for sure these first two losses are 100% on the front office and manager AND the inferior players they have stuck us with.   That is, the illogically determined players.

Let's talk opening day and the alternate site roster

THOUGHTS ON OPENING DAY

 The thing I look for on opening day is if we see a continuation of what we saw in spring training.   So let's go through it.

Jordan Luplow going 0-fer.   He was like 0-15 in ST and he went 0-3 today.  A little concerning that his day was essentially over after making that diving catch.   Is he hurt?  If not, he certainly is not hitting.  Now, some people want to write off last year to him playing hurt.  But look at his batting averages over his four years in the majors: .205, .186, .276 and, last year, .192.   Now I know he hits lefties really well but a closer look says that this is based mostly on 2019.   If you throw out 2019 he is very pedestrian vs LH pitchers (OPS around .730), but pathetic across the years against RH pitching.  So, if he isn't injured I will cut him some slack but had Ahmed Rosario started in CF today and led off, we had a decent chance to win that game, even with shaky CF defense. 

Shane Bieber throwing a lot of pitches up and away on the glove side.   He seemed to do this a lot in ST and he did it again today on occasion.   These pitches are ones that NO hitter will swing at, meaning, to me, they are not intentional.  I will credit the 3 walks and 2 wild pitches to the conditions today.   We will see though.

Batting against mediocre pitching - Towards the end of ST we faced some middle of the road starting pitching and they shut down our offense.   Today was more of the same against Boyd.   Geez, imagine what will happen when we play against GOOD pitching!?!  

Jake Bauers and Ben Gamel not hitting - 0-1 and 0-1 with a walk today.

Eddie Rosario with that loopy swing that creates weak ground balls to the right side - Happened repeatedly in ST and again multiple times today.   He looks like his wrist hurts or something because he is not hitting the ball firmly most of the time.

Roberto Perez hitting and walking with confidence - Both during ST and today.

Jose Ramirez hitting (or not) in the clutch - Look, Ramirez has had problems hitting in the clutch.  It seemed better this spring but did not translate today.

Yu Chang - He didn't produce again today.  He didn't produce all last year.   In fact, in the majors, he has never produced.   He looked a lot like that bad Yu Chang near the end of ST and that translated again today.

Josh Naylor - Struggling in the field, scuffling at the plate.   Ditto for ST and today's game.

Andres Gimenez - Struggled near the end of ST but, even in struggling, you can see that "it" is in there.   Ditto for him hitting today.

James Karinchak - Brain farts in ST and today.   You can't walk a guy an inning in the big leagues.  You have to be, at worst, 1 walk every 2 innings.   He has to get better but it was encouraging that he got out of the inning without sriking out the side. 

Bryan Shaw - He looked reborn in ST and again today, even in bad conditions.

So, although Tito likes to caution us that ST trends can be a mirage, it looks like

ALTERNATE SITE 

The taxi squad and the alternate site team look about right to me.   You want to keep Gose motivated and that is one way you can do it.    The question mark for me was that I didn't see Tyler Freeman's name on the list although we was with the team all ST (Arias was sent down).   You could say it is because of Freeman's inexperience but, if you compare levels played between Arias and Freeman, they are the same.   The only difference between them is that Arias was acquired in the Clevinger trade and I would guess it would look good to have players from that trade closer to the majors.  Let's hope it isn't that AND it isn't that Freeman is hurt as he took a pitch off the wrist later in ST, although he played, and got a hit, the next game.   So, if Freeman is not hurt, then not having him at the alternate site is something I could live with, although everything would say he should be ahead of Arias at this point in reality and in the eyes of management.   Let's hope he is healthy.