2024 Draft - Part 32 - Day 3 Results and Initial Thoughts (To Be Updated During The Day)

Day 3 is never that exciting and it is even less exciting if you don't have any, or much, bonus pool money left.  Heading into day 3 I think it is generally recognized by the internet draft and draft bonus pool 'experts' that they have exhausted their bonus pool + overage amount of $19.2 million. 

But there is still talent out there on Day 3 as evidenced by Guardians previous drafts where they got, in rounds 11-20, Jacob Bresnahan (2023), Magnus Ellerts and Shawn Rapp (2022), Hunter Stanley and Trenton Denholm (2021) and Matt Waldren, Kevin Kelly and Nick Mikolajchak (2019), among others.  There is talent there just waiting to be mined!

So, in my mind, day 3 should have been drafting college pitchers and hitters who would sign for $150,000 or less and maybe, as I have been saying for a while, a guy who plans to go to a JUCO this fall who we can sign to a bonus all the way up to next year's draft.

The guys that came to mind from my research were:

Mason Koch, RHRP, Soph, Creighton (in transfer portal)

Micah McDowell, OF, Senior, Oregon State

Owen Boerema, RHSP, Senior, Kansas State

John Bay, RHH OF, Senior, Austin Peay

Pierce Coppola, LHP, Junior, U. of Florida

Matt Willadsen, RHSP, Senior, NC State

Let's see who we ended up with:

Round 11 - Garrett Howe - SS - Samford U.  - A senior sign, more walks than Ks, OPS 1.054, 23 SB.  Definitely his breakout season this year as he established career highs in almost every category. 

NOTE: While we all look at draft budgets, remember the dollars spent in rounds 11-12 are still dollars.  Don't be surprised to see the Guardians draft more college seniors today than normally to save some money on the last day.   It's not money against their draft pool I am talking about.  It's just money.

NOTE: Trey Gregory-Alford (#105), my pick in my first mock draft to fall significantly and for us to take, finally went in the 11th round to the Angels.  Rounds 11 and 12 are where teams tend to pick guys their strategy may not have allowed them to select in rounds 1-10.  

NOTE; In round 11, there were 2 players ranked in MLB Pipeline's top 200 draft prospects, 10 college seniors, 12 college juniors, 6 high school players and 2 JUCO players.

Round 12 - Sean Hepner - RHP - U. British Columbia - Another senior sign, with control issues, he may fit the mold of some of the other max effort college pitchers they have selected earlier in the dratt.

NOTE: 4 MLB Pipeline top 250 players were selected in this round.

NOTE: 17 college juniors, 6 college seniors, 1 JUCO player and 6 High School Players were selected in this round.

Round 13 - Bennett Thompson - C - Oregon - A college junior, he also played 1B and RF. He appears to be an organizational catcher (like Johny Tincher last year) looking at his stats.  College catchers are sought after in this organization to help our young pitchers develop.  

NOTE: One MLB Pipeline top 250 player was selected in this round.  As we get to round 13 and beyond, generally less MLB Pipeline top 250 prospects get drafted.  Generally, but not always, when a team takes a flyer on a HS player who has dropped do we see those players selected.  This is also when you see teams start taking college position players to act as organizational players to fill out their minor league rosters.  I was wondering how this would go with the new 165 player roster limits.  I anticipated a lot of college catchers and college pitchers going in the teens to fill out rosters with less college infielders and OFers beccause those skill sets can and are provided a lot by international signees.  

NOTE: Round 13 had the first college sophomore selected on Day 3. I was hoping the Guardians would go to this well on Day 3.

NOTE; 21 pitchers and 9 position players were selected in this round.

Round 14 - Ryan Cesarini - OF - St. Joseph's University - Another college junior, Cesarini is a bat control guy with some speed.  Frankly, I don't know what it is that Micah McDowell hasn't been selected. He seems, statistically, to be far superior to a number of college OFers selected on Day 3 and he hit close to .400 for Oregon State this year.  Maybe he has said he doesn't intend to play pro baseball?

NOTE: Tanner Witt, of the baseball family Witt, who I wanted to pick in the 10th round in 2023 after he didn't pitch last year, was finally drafted in the 14th round by the Mets.  I still like him and wish the Guardians had taken a flyer on him..

Round 15 - Connor Whitaker RHP - Florida State U. - A college junior, his stats look mediocre except for the fact that he appears to have excellent control.

NOTE As we head to the break, the Guardians appear to just be drafting organizational players.  We have only had 2 college pitchers selected with the other 3 being position players.   It appears that this year they are more about organizational filler players than in previous year.

Round 16 - Jacob Remily - RHP - HS - Hawaii - Just like in previous years, the Guardians are selecting a HS pitcher.  Don't know if this is a backup plan or if he really wants to just turn pro and the Guardians are offering him slot or $50,000 above slot.  Interesting that we are 6 picks in and only have 2 pitchers on Day 3.  Maybe they have enough organizational pitchers in their system backlogged after the last 3 drafts.  Looking at the LC and Lynchburg rosters, that may be the case.  Still interested to see if they go for any draft-and-follows (who don't count against their organizational max number of minor leaguers). who they have until next draft to sign.

 in 

NOTE: As I am thinking about guys who have been selected on Day 3 in previous drafts and had successful ML careers, Albert Pujols came to mind. Just then, the Cardinals drafted another junior college third baseman, Deniel Ortiz.

Round 17 - Logan McGuire - RHP - Georgia Tech - Another college junior, he had an 8.91 ERA this season.  Hmmmm.

NOTES:  Under the heading of "I didn't know this could happen", The Royals selected a 19 year old, Dane Burns, a 19 year old without any college affiliation.  The only pitching that Baseball Reference notes for him is pitching 5 games of summer ball this year in the New England Collegiate League.   I guess if you never went to college after HS you can be selected at any time.

NOTES: The Marlins selected Micah McDowell from Oregon State. He was one of my favorites.  He played with Bazzana, hit .382 with an OPS of 1.182 and he wasn't worth the Guardians selecteing him?  I don't get it. But obviously other teams felt the same way as the Guardians did!

Round 18 - Izaak Martinez - LHP - UC San Diego -  A senior, he had a 1.85 ERA this season.

Round 19 - Cam Schuelke - RHP - Mississippi St. - A senior, he had a 4.32 ERA this season.  More importantly, he has pitched well in the Cape Cod League the last 3 summers, including this year.

Round 20 - Cam Walty - RHP - Arizona - A senior, I wonder if Francona had anything to do with this selection as that is where he lives and I am sure he goes to a lot of Arizona baseball games.  Walty was a SP there and was a command and control guy, walking just 13 and striking out 75 in 90 IP with a 3.29 ERA.

FINAL DAY 3 THOUGHTS - After Day 1 and Day 2, I expected Day 3 to be very boring as they likely weren't going to take any flyer or even interesting picks, but it came in under my very low expectations. I expected at least 1 if not more Draft-and-follows and I got none.  I expected maybe one sophomore but they did not select one.  They did draft some pitching which is always good, although I am a little worried as college juniors are not close to guaranteed to sign if they are drafted late.  That's why it is good that our last 3 college pitchers were seniors.  Also disappointed we didn't draft McDowell from Oregon State which would have been such a slam dunk after drafting Bazzana.  I mean, the guy hit .382 with an over 1.000 OPS playing good college competition. I am also disappointed that we didn't land Mason Koch, Owen Boerema, John Bay, Pierce Coppola or Matt Willadsen but, since no one else drafted them, it just reinforces that I have no idea what to look for in a pro prospect.  Obviously it is the Guardians who are scouting these kids and I am sure their due diligence told them that each of them had one or more tools that they could build from or refine to possibly make them ML players.  I hope that is true and I wish all of these guys the best of luck in their professional careers and that I can, one day, see them playing for the Guardians.  That's it for now.  Have a good day and a restful sleep tonight.

2024 Draft -Part 31 - The Sun Has Come Up On The Third Day Of The Draft

 OK, after a night to think about it here are my thoughts: 

• The Guardians' stated goal entering the draft was to collect as much talent as possible.  I think, in their own way, have done that.  Here's how
• They were able to draft 4 outstanding HS pitching prospects in the first 10 rounds. 
• They have the most bonus pool in MLB draft history meaning that they also have the largest 4.99% overage of any team in history.  
• One of the raps against drafting HS pitchers is that they want large bonuses to keep them from going to college.  NIL money has just increased that perception.

If the Guardians have found a way to identify the RIGHT HS pitchers and know their bonus demands well enough, they should know that they have enough money, thanks to the huge bonus + overage pool they have, to sign these guys.  If the Guardians drafted these guys I have to assume they can sign them all.  I have to believe them because, as I said in Part 30, if they can't, this draft could fall apart like a house of cards and create one of the worst disasters in Cleveland draft history.

So, assuming they have drafted signable guys, they have, in sort of an unorthodox manner, accomplished, so far, their stated goals. They have more and, higher ranked top 50 and top 100 prospects in the first 10 rounds than in any previous Guardians draft, dating all the way back to 2017.  

They have accomplished, in their own way, their stated goal, IF they can sign these draft choices.  And we still have one day and 10 picks to go.

So, while I curb my enthusiasm for Day 3 with the knowledge we have used a lot of our bonus pool + overage budget already and there may not be any top prospects (or even HS flyer picks) picked on Tuesday by the Guardians, who they do pick, if they do it judiciously with college pitchers and position players who are talented and will sign for reasonable bonuses, they could have created the best group of prospects they have ever collected in one draft.  Then it will be a race to see if they can develop them.

Now, I am not saying I would have gone this direction and Cleveland tried this in 2001 with disastrous results but they were novel in their approach and used their unusually large resources in the best way they could have been used.  Let's hope it works because Cleveland needs this to work.

2024 Draft - Part 30 - Initial Thoughts About Day 2 of the 2024 Draft

1,  Regarding the HS school pitchers from today:

• If they can sign them all, great.  But it is a big risk.  They took this gamble last year with Mooney and I think they got screwed when it took a larger than expected bonus to sign him, meaning they didn't have the bonus pool excess to sign HS pitcher Heuer and Marohn.  
• Also, doesn't that mean we can't exactly gamble on day 3 as we likely won't have extra money and we likely would end up like we did in 2023 if we do.
• Has anyone considered that they don't have a very good record developing HS pitchers.
• How about the years that current Guardians players are signed through:
• Ramirez - 2028
• Clase - 2028
• Gimenez - 2029
• Bibee - 2028 (FA)
• Williams - 2029 (FA)
• Kwan - 2027 (FA)
• Josh Naylor - 2025 (FA)

****Likely time to the majors for these HS pitchers - Best case, 2028, likely case: 2029, 

We didn't exactly bring in talent in this draft, except for Bazzana, who will help in the competitive window of our biggest stars.

2. Regarding The Rest of the Day 2 picks

College pitchers: good thing

High effort college pitchers: Not a good thing

I heard a lot of utility infielder and 4th outfielder comps for some 4th and 5th round picks.  This tells me that I am not sorry that we drafted all pitchers on Day 2.

3. Day 3 excitement 

Not sure I have any.  I think all the fireworks were done on Day 1 and Day 2.   But the guys I would like to get on Day 3 are:

• Mason Koch - Creighton, RHRP -in transfer portal
• Micah McDowell - OF - OSU; senior sign.  Hit .400 hitting 2nd behind Bazzana this year
• Owen Boerema - RHP - Kansas State - senior sign - workhorse, pitched almost 100 innings this year.
• John Bay, OF - Austin Peay - Big HR threat but not showing much plate discipline to go with his HRs this summer at the Cape.
• Pierce Coppola - LHP - Florida - Had one great start in the College World Series but only worked 9 ip before that this year.
• Matt Willadsen - NC State RHP - Injured all year so may or may not want to sign.  Worth a pick if there is a chance, though.

These were all guys in my mock draft as late day 2 or day 3 guys.  I think we won't be drafting any HS pitchers if we are sure we are going to sign all the HS pitchers we have drafted already.  It wouldn't hurt to take a couple of flyers or college sophs in case something falls through.  Not sure about Koch now as he is a draft-eligible sophomore and I am not sure we have the money to sign him.  but if we could get some or all of these guys tomorrow I think it would be a very good day.  It will keep me checking the internet so I guess that qualifies as excitement.

 

Maybe we end the draft with our first JUCO D&F under the new rules.  Who knows.

2024 Draft - Part 29 - The Draft Bonus Pool Rules And What Happened To The Guardians On Day 2

 The draft bonus rules are a little complicated but, in a nutshell, here they are:

• MLB assigns every draft pick in the first 10 rounds a dollar value. 
• To calculate a team's total bonus pool just add up the dollar values for all the slots they draft at in the first 10 rounds.   
• Aggressive teams can spend up to 4.999% above their bonus pool and only be penalized 75% of that excess.  If they spend 105% of their bonus pool or more, they lose one or more draft picks.
• Any player drafted (or acquired as a non-drafted free agent after the draft) is allowed to be paid a bonus of $150,000.  Any part of the bonus above that figure counts against a team's draft budget.
• To figure out how much of a team's bonus pool they have used, just add up all the bonus amounts they have paid to players they drafted through round 10 and add in the amounts above $150,000 they paid to any player acquired after round 10.
• One very important nuance to this system is, if a team fails to sign a player from the first 10 rounds they lose the slot amount from that draft slot from their bonus pool.  As their 104.999 percent bonus pool is calculated based on the bonuses a team pays out, if they lose a bonus amount from a slot they also lose the ability to have that overage amount.  Thus, if a team fails to sign a pick from a slot that is worth $500,000, they lose $500,000 from their bonus pool plus the ability to add to their bonus pool with an overage of $249,000 for that 4.999% overage.

Why is all this important to the 2024 Cleveland Guardians draft?  Well, the Guardians did something VERY unusual in this draft.  Normally teams will have a player they REALLY want to sign in their first 10 rounds of picks or even in rounds 11-20.  To get that money they will draft, in the other spots of first 10 rounds, players who will sign for below the slot that they are drafted in.  These include: college seniors and players who didn't expect to be drafted as high as they were.  But there are only usually 10-11 players drafted in the first 10 rounds by a team.  It sometimes takes them saving money on a lot of their first 10 picks to pay that one player who will require a higher bonus to keep them from going to (back to) college.  

Last year the Guardans messed up and had to pay a much higher over slot bonus to ONE player, that made them not be able to sign two other players later in the draft.

And this year they may have screwed up worse than last year.

This year, however, they may have gone overboard.  With one day to go in the draft the 

1. Bazzana - $1.3 million

36. Doughty - 0

48. Cozart - $200,000

84. Oakie - $1.1 million

113 - Sleshinger - $143,000

146 - Major - $75,000

175 - Favors - $257,000

205 - Sullivan - $720,000

235 - Zsak - 0

265 - Matson - 0

295 - Mobley - $817,000

By this calculation, the Guardians have overshot their bonus pool by $662,000.  This is using conservative estimates that Sullivan and Mobley will sign for $1 million each and all the other guys in the draft will accept the under slot or at slot bonuses for the spot they were drafted that I have listed above.

While that is possible as our 5% overage amount is actually $914,000 ABOVE what our bonus pool of $18,334,000, giving us a maximum pool, without losing a draft pick next year, of $19,248,000, it is cutting it really, really close.  

If any of the prospects listed above wants a bonus above what the Guardians thought they would settle for, their draft can fall apart like a house of cards.  That did happen to them last year when they had to pay Alex Mooney $1 million meaning that they suddenly did not have enough money to sign two highly touted HS pitchers, Ryan Marohn and Mac Heuer,   And last year, they had to sign Mooney or they would have lost his bonus slot, causing them to have to not sign ANOTHER draftee.  So they chose to sign Mooney and let Marohn and Heuer walk.  Not ideal and, this year, it looks like they are going back to the same house of cards approach, except worse because if they can't sign Mobley, Sullivan, Oakie and Doughty for bonuses as small as I used to do the calculations above, those players will walk and we will lose their slot values.

Plus, cutting it this tight means they are unlikely to draft any players tomorrow who will require bonuses larger than $150,000, meaning the talent from this draft will likely be lower, overall, than if they had the money to spread around to the entire draft.

Up to last year the Guardians were masterful at using exactly 104.999% of their draft budget.  Let's hope they get back to that this year.  The numbers above make me worry A LOT though, especially after last year's disaster.

2024 Draft - Part 28 - It's Tuesday - Thoughts About Day 1 Picks And What's Ahead on Day 2

 OK, I have had a night's sleep and here is what I think going into day 2.

Day 1 Recap -

• We got Bazzana.  For a large market club who can buy players they need, we might be able to call it a day and look toward adding expensive talent at the deadline.  But we talking about the Cleveland Guardians.  They need to have GREAT drafts every year as, in the real world, that is the major way small market teams flourish (along with astute international signings).  So while Bazzana was a great add, that is when the real work, the 'don't work hard, work smart' should have begun.  But it didn't.
• With Bazzana's likely underslot deal (probably by $1.2-1.5 million) and our $900,000 overage allowance (up to 4.999% over our budget) we should have had $2.1-2.4 million ABOVE slot value bonuses we could play with.  So what did we do?
• We drafted a 36th ranked HS P at slot 36 (Braylon Doughty).  A solid, long-term play pick that does not, and SHOULD NOT, scream over slot bonus, although Alex Clemmey, 58th pick & 50th ranked prospect, did cost us $900,000 over slot last year.  Frankly, he has pitched like the 50th ranked prospect who should have been paid $1.5 million instead of $2.3 million.  But we had the money to spend, so.... But more on that later
• At pick 48 we drafted the 42nd ranked prospect. Jacob Cozart.  He is a defense-first catcher with power potential and a good batting eye.  On the surface it appears that this is a good pickup in an organization almost devoid of catching prospects.  But looking a little deeper this was, to me, a bad pick.  He will be a ML catcher.  But his hitting upside is likely .220/.310/.400, not bad for a good defensive catcher.  However, this still makes him a #9 hitter in a good ML lineup.  In addition, his downside is Austin Hedges, a totally unplayable offensive player with great defensive skills.  A ML backup on a good team.  So, while that is great to have, what is NOT great is that it cost us the 48th pick in the draft.  BTW, Hedges was a 2nd round pick, to.  But guys like Hedges and Cozart should be mid Day 2 picks, at best, not Day 1 picks.  Ever.
• By drafting Doughty and Cozart we left day 1 without a college pitcher of the type that we don't tend to leave day 1 without.  In addition, we left Day 1 likely without spending a penny of our bonus excess because whatever we spend in excess with Doughty we will likely get back from Cozart.  We'll talk below about why picking a  slot appropriate HS pitcher and a defense-first, LHH college catcher was probably not the best play early in the draft for a team this flush with money.

Day 2 - What Do We Do?

• Before we get into this, let me give you my draft philosophy for this draft which has evolved from what I thought before we started making picks.  Jose, Kwan, Gimenez, Bibee, Gaddis, Smith, Clase, Willaims and Josh Naylor, if we re-sign him like we should, give us a competitive window up through 2027 or 2028.  So, if we want to inject talent into that competitive window, as I think we should, we should focus on impact college players.  Bazzana is a good fit in that regard but HS pitchers and hitters are not, as they likely will only be impactful in 2029, or later, if at all.  bit players, like Cozart, are also not helpful as, in a WS caliber lineup, he has no spot.  College pitchers picked this year are very likely to be able to be impactful within at that window.  Just look at Bibee, Williams, Gaddis, Curry and Smith.  So, if the Guardians are trying to impact that competitive window they should have been drafting impactful college hitters and impactful college pitchers.  So far, they just have Bazzana in their first 3 picks who fit that profile and that is NOT a good thing, IMO. For example: And 
• I would love to have a quality overslot HS pitcher to burn some of this bonus excess as most teams won't have the excess we have.   But we have Doughty and I am not inclined to have TWO HS pitchers in the first 2 days of this draft.  They, especially HS RH pitchers, are so risky that is way too much inherent risk to throw into the first two days for me.  So, to me, we should be done with HS pitchers until Day 3.  So, Joey Oakie, the next best HS player, is probably not reasonable to me.
• I would have loved to have an offense-first RHH good defense college catcher who was athletic enough to play another position.  But I can't see us drafting ANOTHER college catcher on Day 2, giving us 2 in the first 2 days of the draft.  No one needs two college catchers taken high in the same draft.  So as much as I would have loved to have Kevin Bazzell INSTEAD of Jacob Cozart, I don't think it is smart to have Kevin Bazzell AND Jacob Cozart.  You have 13 pitchers on your ML roster and 2 catchers.  I think that math speaks for itself.

So, with the above in mind of what we SHOULDN'T do, let's talk about what we CAN and probably SHOULD do both to stock our system with good prospects and, judiciously, spend that bonus excess that we have.

Pick 84

I see us with three choices:

• Draft overslot college soph OFer Dakota Jordan with all his swing-and-miss
• Draft likely slotted college OFer Mike Sirota
• Draft a quality college pitcher of the type we SHOULD have drafted at 36 and 48.

Unfortunately, the play we SHOULD make is Jordan.  We have the money.  We have booked 3 solid (albeit the last two being very boring) prospects.  Jordan would be our first brass ring pick.  I don't think this draft has any true brass ring picks and I think spending money on Jordan could easily be a waste of money.  But, still, if we spend $1.3 million on Jordan ($400,000 over slot) I would be OK with that.  That still will give us money to spend on Alex Mooney-type overslot college sophs, high school P flyers and injured college pitchers later in the draft and buy ourselves a deep, solid draft in a year where the draft ONLY provides deep and solid for teams flush with bonus excess.

What my head tells me to do is to draft the best COLLEGE junior pitcher available.  And that would be Ryan Prager or Drew Beam.  We have 9 picks to wait to see if either of them is available but, if they are, we pop one of them.  If not, we have to bite our lip and take the best available college pitcher left.  That would either be soft-tossing Josh Hartle or guys who need work like Tristan Smith or Daniel Eagen

Pick 113

Again, the same applies here.  I would go for the best college pitcher available because it sets up the next two rounds.

Pick 146

Here I would go out and find the best available college sophomore, even if we get Jordan.  This guy would probably want to go over slot but I would be OK with that if it wasn't crazy.  Nothing over $1 million

Picks 175, 205, 235, 265 and 295

I go just as I did in my mock drafts with the guys I picked there.  Four college pitchers and one RHH college outfielder, unless we get Jordan than it would be all college pitchers.

Once again, we need players who will impact the current competitive window.  That is all college players and that is what I think we should pick on Day 2.

NOTE

As an aside, I think this could be turning into a historic draft.   I was surprised when I say that after the undraftable William Schmidt, Dakota Jordan (34) was the best available prospect after only 74 picks.  Then was #46 HS P Joey Oakie.  While there are 27 top 100 prospects left starting day 2, most of them look like solid, signable picks.  That is interesting, and maybe historic, because of the last 6 drafts (not counting 2020).

In these drafts here is the highest ranked player NOT drafted, the number of top 100 prospects who were not drafted and the number who were drafted late in the draft (after slot 300) who were, predictably, not signed.

2017 - #111 highest ranked player not drafted, 0 top 100 ranked prospects were not drafted and 9 were drafted late and didn't sign

2018 - #115, 0, 12

2019 - #86, 2, 8

2021 - #29, 13, 5

2022 - #46, 8, 3

2023 - #44. 8, 3

2024 (so far) - #16, 27, ---

If the trend continues as yesterday, looking at the players left in the top 100, we might not even make 5 players in the top 100 who are not drafted and maybe 6 who aren't signed. Or less in both categories.  To have so many top 100 prospects sign would be unprecedented in recent history, especially as we enter the NIL era.  It will be interesting to follow through the rest of the draft and how the Guardians might leverage that, if they can.

2024 Draft - Part 27 - Recap Of Day 1 and Thoughts As We Approach Day 2

To begin with, any day in the 2024 draft than starts with drafting Travis Bazzana can't be a bad day.  But for this day and for the rest of my analysis of this draft I will look at 2 things

• Did the Guardians get good value at their pick by either drafting a player who was rated as good or better than the slot they were selected
• Did the Guardians' pick support a continuation of their competitiveness during the next 4 years, which is the bulk of the competitive window with the current major leaguers.
• Was it a good pick, cost-wise
• Did the pick they made make sense with the current organizational needs (least important) 

I also want to look at draft trends by the other teams so I will focus on the picks between each of our picks and whether teams drafted guys who were as good or better prospects than their draft slot, worse prospects than their slot or MUCH worse prospects than their slot.

So let's dig in to day 1:

Guardians 1-1 

Travis Bazzana College 2B - (slot 1-1, rank 1-1), the fans' pick, is now a Cleveland Guardian.   He was the best fit possible in terms of getting the best prospect available at the time. He both fits into our current competitive window and appears to be a good financial play.  This pick addressed the organizational need for hitting but it is unclear if it addressed an organizational need for a player at the position he was drafted.

My mock draft pick: Bazzana 

Guys Between 1-1 and 1-35

What I always look for in the draft between Guardians' picks is what teams are making surprise picks.  Every time a lower-rated player is picked the Guardians have a stronger pool of remaining players that they might be able to pick from.

• 18 if the next 34 picks were guys who were rated (by MLB Pipeline) lower than where they were drafted. 

• Of those 18, 5 were rated 20 spots or more worse than where they were drafted.

Guardians 1-36

Braylon Doughty RH HS P (Slot 36, Rank 36) - He is a solid HS pitching prospect.  He should require a bonus not much different from slot.  Of course, that's what we thought about Clemmey last year (pick #58, rank #50) so I can't be sure where he will land in terms of above or below slot.  This appears to be a good, solid pick for the Guardians even though I HATE HS arms (or bats) this early.   

The way I look at it is this:  Jose Ramirez will be under contract for 4 more years.  At that time Kwan could be a free agent and Gimenez and Bibee could be free agents.  Doughty is likely not getting to the majors until 2028 at the earliest.  So he might not overlap with the current Guardians much, if at all.   Picking Doughty doesn't help in our competitive window as defined by when Bibee, Ramirez, Gimenez and, maybe Kwan are with the team. 

So, what does this pick really help?  It is a long-term play that is filled with risk and becomes fruitfful, if it works at all, only in an uncertain future.

I like the pick, but it doesn't make sense for the Guardians as it does nothing to help the team when it still has the good players we know.  You have to hypothesize that some of our minor leaguers become stars in the majors at the level of Kwan and Ramrez for us to have a base to which Doughty can make a MEANINGFUL impact to.

So, for the current Guardians' window of competitiveness, this pick doesn't make sense, although you can never have too much pitching and Doughty falls in with Bresnahan, Clemmey, Wilkinson, Humpries and Zibin in terms of getting to the majors, everything being equal, within the same period.

My mock draft pick: I selected Luke Holman who, as a college pitcher, likely would fall into our current competitive window.  He was available at this slot.

Picks 37-47

In these 11 picks 5 of them were ranked worse than where they were selected, 2 of them more than 20 spots or more worse than the slot they were selected at.

Guardians pick 1-48

Jacob Cozart - College catcher - (Slot 48, Rank 42) -This pick gives me Javi Herrera (2003 2nd round pick by the Guardians, also a college catcher) vibes.  A college catcher who was a decently ranked prospect, Herrera was a blah pick to me as a glove first catcher.  The fact that he never made the majors made his blah selection all the more infuriating.  Cozart reminds me of that pick.  On the surface he checks the value box as he was ranked higher than where he was drafted.  He also checks the financial checkbox as he won't cost over slot.  He also checks the organizational need as I don't think Cooper Ingle will end up as a full-time ML catcher and there are no other catchers, AT ALL, in the Guardians' minor leagues who are prospects. He sort of checks the compettive window box as he should be here in 3 seasons and overlap with Bo Naylor for at least a year.  

Still, to me, this pick was really a blah pick as he doesn't hit that well, showed some power in college this year (didn't everyone!?! and had more walks than strikeouts.  In short, he is a Guardians guy.

My mock draft pick: Bryce Cunningham - RHP College - He was available at this slot.

SUMMARY -

Look, we got Bazzana, did not overdraft any players and, likely, ended the day with 3 guys who will sign for underslot or, in the case of Doughty and Cozart, at worse slot or a little above.  We also filled organizational needs (you can never have too much pitching and we have little to no catching in the system).  What the Guardians DID NOT do is leverage their developmental strength, which is finishing off polished college pitchers.   They had the opportunity to bring in any two of a number of college pitchers were selected during the CB-A or 2nd round spots after they drafted at 26 and 48 and didn't do it, instead selecting HS pitching (vert risky) and college catching (more defense than a hitter (hit tool 45) and not good enough to be considered a really good value).  

I just think the Guardians left a lot on the table here, not selecting to their strengths and not getting great value to leverage the bonus excess they will likely have.

They have also put themselves in a situation where they will likely have to:

• Take college pitching
• Drew Beam (#64)
• Ryan Prager (#61)
• Josh Hartle (#70)
• double down on their second and 3rd picks to get real value
• Joey Oakie (RH HS P, rank 46)
• Dax Whitney (RH HS P, rank 60)
• Kevin Bazzell (College C rank 55)
• Or take on significant risk
• Dakota Jordan (College draft-eligible soph, rank 30)
• Mike Sirota (college JR RHH OFer, rank 50)
• HS OFers

 if we are getting good value for our next pick.

The college pitcher options are somewhat intriguing but remember there are 9 selections before we selected next.  It is quite possible that all of these three could be gone.  Sirota becomes maybe the best option if the college pitchers above are gone or we can get another college catcher (not ideal), lower ranked HS pitchers or a handful of HS and college position players who are ranked higher than #84, our draft slot.

There is still some hope of getting good value at the next pick and picks beyond that but everything would have to fall right for us not to end up with another college catcher or another (inherently) risky HS pitcher or position player. 

Had we taken the two college pitchers I suggested , than focusing on a college bat or another HS pitcher might have been more palatable as we would have locked in a couple of solid guys at 36 and 48.  

Solid first day but let's hope we didn't paint ourselves into a corner where we have to double down on positions or take on unnecessary risk or cost just because solid prospecets are gone. 

2024 Draft - Part 26 - It's Draft Day And I Am Talking To Myself

Talking to myself on draft morning...hoping someone else is listening but not caring if they're not (thus the reason for writing in a blog and not in chat rooms).

• To the Guardians draft room:
• Don't try to be the smartest guys in the room.  Just make solid picks
• After your first pick this is a weak draft.  Draft accordingly.  There are no brass ring picks in this draft.  Don't be fooled into thinking there are or you will be wasting valuable money
• Look for overall quality, not brass ring picks.  You will overpay for brass ring picks and, in a weak draft like this one, that isn't worth it and will limit the level of quality you can draft later.
• Draft guys who are rated higher than where they are drafted, even if it only a few places. You have the resources to do that, AND sign those guys, for almost all 20 rounds of this draft.  No one else can do that.  You have the most resources and can overwhelm other teams who have to nickel-and-dime later in the draft as they went all-in earlier or simply don't have the draft resources this year.
• Don't be fooled by late risers and look for the bargains later in the draft who fell from their prospect rating in January due to bad performance or injury.  You have the resources to entice them to sign.  By doing this, you can make this the deepest and, potentially, best draft in Cleveland history, even better than 2021, which was great and is getting much greater by the day.

• For many reasons, this is the most important draft in Cleveland Guardians history.  We need:
• One impact position player
• A bunch of good players to replenish our farm system and bring it back into the top 10 in baseball, something that is a must for a small market club.
• Repeat after me: THERE ARE NO BRASS RING PICKS IN THIS DRAFT.  I AM NOT GOING TO BE CUTE.  I  AM NOT GOING TO ACT LIKE I AM THE SMARTEST GUY IN THE ROOM.
• Go solid and go quality.  You have the resources.  Let's get highly ranked players in all 21 picks we have in this draft.  It worked in 2021.  Do it again this time.