Buyer or Seller?

Buyer or Seller at the trade deadline? 

OK, let it be known that this column will be laced with my bias: small market teams should never be buyers at the trade deadline.  That being said...

Yes, you don’t always get a chance to win.  Injuries, teams (like the Indians) having unbelievable seasons and other factors topple the best laid (and funded) plans for success. 

But we are not talking about MOST teams here.  We are talking about the Cleveland Indians, a team (2011 version) that can’t compete in the playoffs even if they get there.  Anything can happen, you say?  Look at the Giants last year, you say?  Well, exceptions do exist but tell the fans of the Minnesota Twins that when you get to the playoffs anything can happen.  They’ll probably laugh and roll their eyes.

There are 18 teams in legitimate competition for 8 playoff spots.  Four, counting us, in our division.  TEN of those teams will not make the playoffs.   Why roll the dice that, against all odds, we will be one of the eight when, even if we get there, we don't have the horses to win, at least not on paper.

So what do we do now?

At some point we will get our injured players back.  Will we be out of the race by then?  Maybe.  However, I would rather bet that we will be in it when we get internal reinforcements rather than knee-jerking into making a stopgap move now.  Perusing the available veteran power, righthanded hitting outfielders,  I am not impressed.  I stand pat.  There is no one there that tempting unless some team just wants to do a salary dump.  Yeah, I take Ludwick if the cost is Cory Kluber or something like that.  However, I don’t trade real prospects for one of these guys.  They just aren’t worth it. 

However, if we WERE going to trade prospects the best guys to trade would be guys with limited previous upside who are having career years.  Here’s some names to consider:

Scott Barnes – Having really a career year, all things considered. 

Vinnie Pestano – (NOTE: I wrote this column before his implosion tonight) – One guy who I think has the lowest chance of maintaining his current level is Pestano. 

Tim Fedroff – OK, so he won’t bring much.  But there may be some interest based on his 2011 season and his prospect ranking.

TJ McFarland – He is having a good year but he still only throws in the 80s.  He is a guy who is hot right now and might be worth more now than ever in his career.

Now, who do you trade these guys for?  The idea would be to get a young righthanded hitting OFer with some current power who is blocked on his current team, one battling for a division championship.  Then, even if you don’t win this year, you have some hope for the future.  The guy wouldn’t have to be a starter on his current team, just have the ability to start and produce as a stopgap until injury guys come back.

Unfortunately, I am not sure that this kind of guy exists.  Maybe Allen Craig in St. Louis.    And I think we could get him for a veteran like OCab or Joe Smith.

There is also the possibility of getting a guy like Jeff Francouer from KC.   He would cost us some prospects, hopefully no more than McFarland plus Fedroff.    I would rather bet on him than on Ryan Ludwick or some other grizzled free agent to be.

So, for me, right now it is Craig or Francouer with the former costing us a veteran or two and the latter costing us some prospects.


Still, I don't see anyone I would give up Scott Barnes or Vinnie Pestano for.  It would have to be a great deal, trading strength for strength, before I trade those guys.


And, we should, under all circumstances, trade Joe Smith, Kearns, Duncan, Buck and Durbin in addition to probably trading OCab. 


I don't like trading at the deadline.  I don't like trading prospects for stopgap veterans.  I am a Cleveland Indians fan.  To me, the future is....the future.  It is never NOW.  Just who I am and what I do.

Indians pouring money into Latin America?

In my post about how to build a small market franchise I pointed out three major ways:

1. Through the draft

2. Through trading veterans for prospects

3. Prudently, but agressively sign Latin American prospects

The reason for this order is that the first one, the draft, is the most cost effective method of getting quality prospects.  Trading veterans for prospects is close to a zero balance situation unless you are extremely lucky.  The third one is the least cost effective method of obtaining young talent because it is a bidding war which probably means you are not getting what you pay for, which is especially important when you are investing from millions to hundreds of thousands on 16-year old fuzzy faced baseball players.

Nevertheless, I said that we should spend heavily on the draft using the blueprint of the 2010 draft BUT that we should also not neglect Latin America and sign at least one top prospect every year.  While this barely will keep our head afloat compared to our biggest competitors, it at least keeps us in the game.

So far this international signing period, which started July 2nd, the Indians have definitely been in the game, signing four prospects, one for 1+ million:

1. Dorssys Paulino, SS from the Dominican Republic, $1.1 million (http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/2011/07/indians-sign-dorssys-paulino-for-1-1-million/  ), 14th ranked prospect by Baseball America (http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/2011/07/indians-sign-dorssys-paulino-for-1-1-million/)
2. Anthony Santandor, OF, Venezuela, $385,000 (29th ranked prospect by BA)
3. Francisco Miguel, OF, Dominican Republic, $200,000
4. Juan Marte, RHP, Dominican Republic, $175,000

Note that BA disclaims their list as not being the top talent but who they expect to get the top bonuses, even indicating that one team's $1.1 million prospect may only be another team's $90,000 bonus guy.  Scary!

The Indians appear to be being a little more aggressive this year internationally which may make up for their less than aggressive approach in the draft after the first two rounds this year. 

Stay tuned for more updates

Mid-Season Prospect List Update and Analysis

6/28/11

OK, let's look back on the top 100 prospect list I did back in February and updated at the beginning of April.    Here is my updated top 50 list with previous rankings in parentheses and not considering that some of these guys may not qualify as rookies now, although they did when the season started.  Note that I have not included 2011 draftees in this list as it is just an update of a list generated before this draft.  This system needs more top-end talent.  Really, after Washington, there isn’t any.  Maybe Wolters will turn into one but most of the guys after Washington are lower-type upside guys.  Some sleepers, some guys who can burst onto the scene, but not many top-end guys like the top 4. 

1. Jason Kipnis (1) – ready for a big league callup and projects, offensively, better for  his position than Chisenhall does.
2. Lonnie Chisenhall (3) – Not ready for the big leagues but he is there 
3. Drew Pomeranz (2) - Control still lacking, promotion to Akron will be telling
4. Alex White (4) – Lack of star depth allows an injured guy to be #4 on this list
5. Vinnie Pestano (13) – Pre-season ranking by me was highest by any Indians writer or blogger… by far.  He is showing why.
6. LaVon Washington (6) – Hitting for average is big stumbling block so far.  All else looks positive.
7. Scott Barnes (39) - Like him more and more every time out. 
8. Nick Hagadone (8) - Struggles at AAA aside, he can pitch
9. Tony Wolters (21) -  Performance against older players starting to make me a believer that he can hit. 
10. Zach McAllister (32) - Performance speaks volumes and McAllister keeps getting better and better and his fastball keeps improving. 
11.  Cord Phelps (10) - Solid guy but 5 errors already in the majors is a real watchout here.  Without defense he is just Ryan Garko/Ben Francisco part deux, a guy with skills but without a true position that his bat and glove could profile him at.
12. Nick Weglarz (7) – Prospect star fading but still some time left this year to brighten it up.
13. Austin Adams (26) – Quietly having good year after being aggressively pushed up to AA by Indians.  A real sleeper ,was a two-way player in college that some scouts  liked better as a SS.
14. Josh Judy (15) –  He is ready to contribute and  has stuff  to be a good 6^th-7^th inning guy right now.
15. Zach Putnam  (20)– See Judy.
16. Juan Diaz (19) – Intriguing power is still there and he is hitting for average a little better, too.
17. Robbie Aviles (18)
18. Hector Rondon (16)
19. Chun Chen (27) – Solid guy at a premium position
20. Jesus Aguilar (68) – Potential turning into performance.  It’s low A, which can really be deceiving, but this guy is showing more power this year.  While I don’t think he will get to Russell Branyan’s franchise record of 40 HRs, he might get close if he isn’t promoted.
21. Alex Lavisky (35) – Demotion aside, having seen him play, the power is for real and he catches a good game.
22. Clayton Cook (43) – Solid, though not spectacular
23. Giovanny Soto (36) – See Clayton Cook.
24. Jason Knapp ((6) – Who knows what the future holds for this guy?
25. Ezequiel  Carrera (37) – Solid backup OFer
26. Chen Lee (56) – After seeing him leave the ball up at AAA and not being able to stay on top of his slider, I am not sold on him yet.  Yes, he eats up poor hitters but better hitters may dominate him, laying off the stuff in the dirt.  Time at AAA will tell.
27. Michael Goodnight (47) – Performance equals ranking in this case.  May have figured out what he needs to do to be successful and, in so doing, reach the potential he had in HS.
28. Jairo Kelly (NR) – An oversight on my part, not ranking him earlier,, he is showing well in Arizona.
29. Elvis Araujo (60) – Appears healthy and has always had the size and stuff
30. Felix Sterling (40)
31. Mike Rayl (88) – Performance equals ranking
32. Kelvin De la Cruz (25) – Fading but still young
33. Alexander Perez (31)
34. Rob Bryson (17) – Late start still has question marks about his health
35. Jordan Henry (22) – Absolute lack of power hurts him in this ranking.  Geez!
36. Kyle Blair (9) – Biggest disappointment in the Indians’ system  this year.  Even starting at low A hasn’t helped.  A real disaster right now as, when I saw him pitch, he was leaving EVERYTHING up in the zone.
37. Bryce Stowell (12) – Control struggles and injury (?!?) really hurt him although, in a heartbeat, he could shoot up this list.  Most movement potential of any guy on this list…but throwing 101 mph will do that for you.
38. Joe Gardner (14) – Struggles this year may indicate that his stuff doesn’t play well as a starter in upper professional levels.  A move to the bullpen, where he was projected to end up when he was in college, may be in the offing.
39. Carlos Moncrief  (86) – Intriguing power/speed/walk rate combo in a strong-armed OFer.  To me, he has Jonathon van Every potential. Has to hit for average, however, if he is to be successful.
40. Tim Fedroff (54) – maybe he has finally found his swagger and his game again.
41. Alex Monsalve (91) – Sixteen passed balls at low A tell a lot.  He can hit, though.
42. Tyler Holt (23) – See Jordan Henry
43. Tyler Sturdevant (51)
44. Roberto Perez (50)
45. Adam Miller (41)
46. Jared Goedert (29)
47. Cole Cook (30)
48. TJ House (24) – Struggles at high A in light of solid performances by Clayton Cook and Giovanny Soto make his numbers in a pitchers’ park in a pitchers’ league look even more suspect.
49. Cory Burns (52)
50. Bo Greenwell (57)

Dropped out of top 50: Jordan Brown (12, traded), Paulo Espino (29), Corey Kluber (33), Matt McBride (34), Jess Todd (38, traded), Matt Packer (42), TJ McFarland (44),  Chris Jones (45), Eric Berger (46), Tony Dischler (48), Marty Popham (49).

In summary:  Decent progress by the prospects I ranked.  39 of the 50 guys I ranked in the top 50 at the beginning of the season are still there.  Of the 11 that have fallen out, 6 were ranked earlier in the 40s and have only dropped incrementally to the 50s. Only one guy, Jairo Kelly, in the top 50 now who wasn’t in the top 100 in April and that was an oversight on my part.  So, my pre-season rankings look strong with my man-love for Jordan Brown and, to some extent, Matt McBride, being the only glitches and my callout of Vinnie Pestano as a quality prospect being my biggest standout pick. But enough about me……J.

Biggest surprise so far: Jesus Aguilar

Biggest disappointment so far: Kyle Blair

Biggest potential for a strong second half: Chun Chen, Scott Barnes, Kelvin De la Cruz, Alex Lavisky, Bryce Stowell, TJ McFarland (note that after I wrote this he pitched a 1-hitter for 6 innings)..

First salvo fired!!!

Adam Everett designated for assignment, Lonnie Chisenhall recalled.

I don't know what this means about Chisenhall and being a Super 2 guy down the road but this is the way the Cleveland Indians should 'go for it'.  Dump the AAAA guys and bring up real prospects from AAA.

I didn't want him up until after Aug. 1st to hopefully avoid the Super 2 thing but what the hey!  He's already 2-3 tonight with an RBI.  Isn't that as many RBI as Hanrahan had in the last month?

Now to get Kipnis up here and dump Orlando Cabrera!  Then.....but I am getting ahead of myself.

Let's enjoy Chisenhall while we can...and hope for a good return for OCab and a quick arrival of Kipnis.

BTW, Joe Smith dealing.  Now is the time to trade him.  He is very valuable to a team that knows it is going to be contending and so is at his highest value since we traded for him.  Let's see if we can package Joe Smith, OCab and Everett together and get a decent prospect back.

Random thoughts 6/26

Well, it's another  Sunday.  Let's see what we have:

• NOTE: Just got done watching the Indians play.  They are probably not as dead as they are acting right now but, MAN, are they acting like they have no idea what they are doing.  Saw Saturday's game and Sunday's game and all I can say is:
• Anyone who said Shelly Duncan is not a AAAA player really doesn't know much about baseball.  Trade the bum now (change of opinion since Friday, but I have actually seen him play.
• Grady Sizemore is really not doing well.  Bobby Valentine was carving him up.  Can't hit an inside fastball, can't hit the ball away.  Sizemore looks totally clueless.  He and Choo are costing themselves a lot of money next year.
• Carlos Santana is just plain stinking it up.  He has totally lost it as a hitter.  Maybe that is one of the reasons that Nunnally got fired.
• Manny Acta should been able to find a way to steal one of these games and he didn't.  Good managers find a way.
• Trade Joe Smith now.  The guy is worthless to a rebuilding team, just like I said he was when we traded for the righty specialist.  Trade Orlando Cabrera, too, but I have said that in the past.  
• The way the announcers were talking, no way Carmona is worth anything right now.  They wer picking his delivery apart and, from Tim Belcher's lack of success with Carmona, he could be the next one fired.  Even though Carmona had good numbers tonight it was against the worst hitting team in baseball.  A better team would have hammered him.  If we can find someone to take him off our hands and get a good return, he should be gone now. 

• Terry Pluto says to stop using retreads. Great, where was he when the Indians were signing guys like this over the past 3-4 years?  I love Pluto as a writer but he is supportive of the FO when they do something stupid and then tends to criticize them when those moves are exposed as bad down the road.

• Look at Aaron Laffey's stats with Seattle and look at Chad Durbin's stats here.  Despite some FO supportive forumites trying to spin obscure statistics to make Durbin look better than Laffey, Laffey is having a great year and Durbin is sucking wind just like was predicted here.  And to think we got rid of Laffey to make room on the 40-man for Durin.  Pathetic move at the time and more pathetic now.  BTW, the 'player' we got for Laffey, Matt Lawson, recently retired.  Classic!!!!!!!!!!!

• The Indians released Jensen Lewis.  Can't say I am surprised as, in my opinion, he was done in his own mind with this organization.  I think Mr. Lewis needs to do a little soul-searching and I think he will.  He has the stuff to pitch in the big leagues and a history of some success but I also think that he felt a sense of entitlement that his performance didn't support.  He went to Columbus and stunk it up due, in my opinion, to him feeling he belonged in the majors.  Now he gets his chance to prove that Cleveland was wrong but the only way to do that is for him to get his head out of his rear end.  Jensen Lewis stands about an 80% chance of making the Indians look stupid for releasing him but, let's face it.  Whatever positive performance he has elsewhere will be due to him playing in another organization.  When you are as down on the Indians decision makers as I think Lewis is, no way can you fault the Indians for this one, even if Lewis becomes an all-star.  The Indians did their due diligence on this one and it was time to cut ties with Jensen Lewis.

• It appears the Indians signed their 3rd and 4th round picks to slightly below slot bonuses.  Duh!  When you overdraft guys like Sisco (1-2 round overdraft) and Lowery (2-3 round overdraft), getting them to sign for slot or a little below is mandatory.  Does mesh with my opinion that the Indians were looking for ways to save money after their first two picks and drafted mostly low cost guys after that.  Not the way a franchise like the Indians should operate.  

• Looking at the Indians' stats Michael Brantley is performing at about the highest level I could expect.  Note that his walk rate is not that great, especially for a leadoff man and he is not stealing bases but he has shown a little power.  While I think this is an aberration it is in there somewhere.  Now he just needs to act more like a leadoff man and become more than a mediocre defender (the rag arm will not go away, but then Grady Sizemore has a rag arm, too).    Still, watching him play, makes me think that he is most likely the best player by far we got in the CC Sabathia trade and that's not a good thing.

• The Indians are promoting minor league guys at their usual pace.  I have changed my mind on this and think that it is a good thing.  The Alex White fiasco shows me that promoting guys too soon can result in injury.  We all want to open the Christmas presents early but this is not the time.  Still, if a guy is performing well after the first half of the season he should be promoted.

• Let's look back on the Indians' deadline deals last year, rating them in order of how good they were based on what we gave up:

1. Austin Kearns for Zach McAllister - This was a great deal but don't kid yourselves, folks.  This was really Kerry Wood and Austin Kearns for McAllister.  The issue was that there was no PTBNL in the Wood deal so the only way to make this happen was to make McAllister the PTBNL where one was owed...in the Kearns deal.

2. Branyan for Carrera and Juan Diaz - Haven't seen Diaz play in person but his stats, for a SS, are eye-popping, at least in terms of power.    He reminds me of, on the downside, Alvaro Espinosa.  What is his upside?  I don't know, but I can only dream and those dreams keep getting bigger the higher his BA and the better his OBP.  Carrera is what he is but it ain't bad as he has good leadoff skills and a strong arm and strong defense in the middle of the OF.

3. Peralta for Soto - I think we sold low here but, for the FO, I think this was addition by subtraction.  Jhonny being Jhonny did not play as well as Manny being Manny simply because Peralta could not live up to his early career success.  Still, a ML SS who can hit like Peralta and keep his head above water with the glove is worth substantially more than a guy not even a "B" prospect.  Not that Soto doesn't have potential but face it, folks, he is a "C" prospect. 

4. Westbrook for Kluber - This deal stunk at the time as Kluber wasn't nearly as good as his stats looked.  Remember, too, that we had to throw in money so this wasn't even good as a salary dump, something, BTW, that small market teams can't afford to do.  This deal will go down as one of the Indians' worst deadline deals as they got nothing back for a solid #3 starter in the big leagues.  Nothing. 

So, in summary, we got maybe a backup outfielder and couple of "C" prospects and a clunker in Kluber for a number of serviceable MLers.  If you are very FO supportive you could argue that these guys weren't worth very much.  However, if you are the GM of a small market team you have to do better than this, especially since trading two Cy Young pitchers brought you very little back and is really damaging this franchise and will for years to come.

The sky is falling, the sky is falling! Quick, trade somebody.

With Choo out maybe until the September stretch run and LaPorta out, this team which, predictably, has offensive struggles and not enough starting pitching to make up for it, needs something.

Here is what they need: They need to start treating this season like they are in last place!

WHAT!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!

Yes, that's right, start trading veterans and start in the next two weeks. 

How can I say that when they are in first place at the latest date in the year since 2007?  First, look at who we are:

What type of franchise do we have?  SMALL MARKET

What type of budget do we have: SMALL BUDGET

What type of fans do we have: EITHER NON-EXISTENT OR ULTRA-FAIR WEATHER

and, finally,

What chance do we have to win this division: ONLY IF EVERY OTHER TEAM IN THIS DIVISION IS UNDER .500.  The Indians are currently 10-19 in their last 29 games and, if you take away the 3 game sweep of the Pirates, they are 7-19. 

So, we just give up?  No, absolutely the opposite.   But we do dump veterans and give you players a chance.  The problem is, there aren't that many young players who are ready.  So we take the leap and hope for a soft landing.

1. We trade Orlando Cabrera and Adam Everett and bring up Jason Kipnis and Luis Valbuena.  Yes, this is a downgrade but it gives us a chance to see Kipnis play second with Valbuena as insurance.  We also start working out Cord Phelps in LF and play him a little at 3B.  Valbuena can be given a shot at 3B, too.

2. We trade Jack Hanrahan and Austin Kearns.  Yeah, we won't get much for either but it is time that clear space for the young guys.  Plus, Donald appears to be heating it up at AAA.  Maybe in a week or so he is ready!

3.  Right now we keep Shelly Duncan and Travis Buck.  The market for Duncan will stay as strong as the market for Shelly Duncan can ever be because of his ability to pinch hit.  We will be able to rid ourselves of Duncan once LaPorta comes back and shows he is healthy.  Buck I am less thrilled with but I would like to keep him around just for a little while.  Eventually I want to replace these two guys with Jerad Head and Ezequiel Carrera.  Nick Johnson?  Yeah, well, he isn't hitting a lick at AAA and he can stay there until he asks for his release or until we trade him.

4. Release or trade Chad Durbin and trade Joe Smith.  The former is no loss but Joe Smith might bring us something in trade.  Bring up Judy, bring up Putnam, bring up (or keep up) Hermann.  Time to see if some of the young guys can help out and bring fresh arms and fresh looks that may buoy this bullpen up until September.  These guys have good stuff but the league doesn't have a book on them yet.  This is an advantage to us.

5. Keep Lonnie Chisenhall in the minors until August 1st.

6. Keep the starting rotation as is through July 30th.  Either these guys are too young or have too little present value to trade AND they are all good enough to start for this team.  Still, if we get a great offer for ANY of these guys, including Tomlin, we trade them now.  McAllister and Gomez are knocking on the door and Barnes is showing that he can be a viable starting option, as well.  If we can clear Talbot and Carmona off the books and get something good back for them I would be inclined to do that. Unfortunately, that would take a miracle but we have seen, in June and July, miracles DO happen (see Choo and Cabrera trades a few years back and Kearns trade last year).

Bottom line: We CAN and SHOULD be sellers from now until August 1st.  We should NOT be buyers this year or in ANY year, IMHO.  We should be a franchis based on selling vets instead of acquiring them for a stretch run.  That's what you do in small markets.

Besides, the young guys we have in AAA will help (I think McAllister would give us a better chance to win every night than Carmona right now) and, if guys like Hagadone can get it together, maybe more than just help.    We CAN compete by trading these fringe MLers/AAAA players/grizzled veterans and plug in rookies in their spots.  We can probably compete better than we are right now, for that matter.

Just my unconventional thinking.

2011 Post Draft Mock Draft

I do this most years and, now that I have my own blog I want to start it as a yearly tradition.  The goal is to do a draft as I would have liked to have seen it done based on the players available at the time.  I don't think a lot about positions but I do make sure I sprinkle in some college seniors.  I also go only 20 rounds as it gets a little crazy and very labor intensive after that.  You know who the Indians drafted, now here is who I think they SHOULD have drafted, with comments and BA rank.

1. Matt Barnes, RHP, Connecticutt - I had to go safe with this pick.  He's not Lindor but he's good (13)
2. Daniel Norris, LHP, Tennessee HS - OK, more of a flyer than Dillon Howard but more of a talent.  If I get that second round pick back next year, I want to do so by missing out on Norris.(16)
3. B.A. Vollmuth, 3B/SS Southern Mississippi (63) - wanted to inject some college hitting
4. Noe Ramirz, RHP, Cal State Fullerton (93) - Solid starting pitcher who performs
5. Matt Price, RH Closer, Georgia Tech (141) - College closer I have been wanting
6. Derek Fisher, OF, PA HS (66) - I wanted to inject some athleticism into my draft
7. Cody Kukuk, LHP, Kansas HS (154) - OK, at some point I will be burned here but, with Fisher and Norris, Kukuk makes my third way over slot bonus guy and that's all that I want here.
8. Kyle Winkler, RHP, Texas (43) - Here's my annual hurt pitcher.  Sign him and rehibilitate him.
9. Dusty Robinson, OF, Fresno State (115) - Good value at this point and more athleticism for this draft
10. Nick Rickles, C, Stetson (194) - We need some catching in this draft
11. Ben Alsup, RHP, LSU - My first college senior
12. Mike McGee, OF, Florida State - My second college senior
13. Zach McPhee, 2B, Arizona State - The first time the Indians' pick and my pick have matched
14. Chad Zurcher, 2B, Memphis - Leading hitter in NCAA division I, let's give this college senior a shot
15. Jeff Schaus, OF, LSU - A college senior re-draft for the Indians
16. Carlos Rodon, LHP, NC HS (198) - Insert another flyer or backup pick if Norris doesn't sign
17. Matt Stites, RHP, Missouri - A short RH relief college senior but with good stuff
18. Andrew Triggs, RHP, USC - Another re-draft but a guy I like especially this low
19. Pete Lavin, OF, San Francisco - Another solid college senior guy
20. Dillon Peters, LHP, IN HS (104) - My second pick in agreement with the Indians and my last flyer in my post draft mock draft.

So, there you have it. In 20 rounds I picked 12 BA top 200 guys, one college junior and 7 college seniros.  I have 12 pitchers, 1 catcher, 5 outfielders and only 3 infielders.

Thus, in the next 30 rounds I need to draft some organizational depth at catcher and infielder and, of course, you can never have too many pitchers.  So, let's say that we draft the way the Indians do the rest of the draft and use their picks for rounds 21-50.  So there you have my mock draft. 

21	638	Cody Elliott	OF	Ball State	Ind.
22	668	Matthew Reckling	RHP	Rice	Texas
23	698	Cody Allen	RHP	High Point	N.C.
24	728	Taylor Sparks (131)	3B	St. John Bosco HS, Bellflower, Calif.	Calif.
25	758	Kevin Kramer	SS	Turlock (Calif.) HS	Calif.
26	788	Austin Diemer	OF	Rocklin (Calif.) HS	Calif.
27	818	Evan Frazar	SS	Galveston (Texas) JC	Texas
28	848	Tyler Nurdin	LHP	Temple (Texas) JC	Texas
29	878	Jared Ruxer	RHP	Lawrence Central HS, Indianapolis	Ind.
30	908	John Polonius	SS	Genesee (N.Y.) CC	N.Y.
31	938	Michael Roth	LHP	South Carolina	S.C.
32	968	Cole Pitts	RHP	Colquitt County HS, Moultrie, Ga.	Ga.
33	998	Jack Wagoner	RHP	Florida Gulf Coast	Fla.
34	1028	Tyler Maloof	RHP	Georgia	Ga.
35	1058	Mason Radeke	RHP	Cal Poly	Calif.
36	1088	Abel Guerrero	LHP	Galveston (N.Y.) JC	N.Y.
37	1118	Taylor Starr	RHP	Oregon State	Ore.
38	1148	Yhoxian Medina	SS	Southeastern (Iowa) CC	Iowa
39	1178	John Barr	OF	Virginia	Va.
40	1208	Matt Eureste	SS	St. Pius X HS, Houston	Texas
41	1238	Brian Rulz	OF	Lincoln West HS, Cleveland	Ohio
42	1268	KC Serna	SS	Oregon	Ore.
43	1298	Geoff Davenport	LHP	Arkansas	Ark.
44	1328	Adam Griffin	RHP	Forsyth Country Day HS, Lewisville, N.C.	N.C.
45	1358	Will Jamison	OF	Evangelical Christian HS, Cordova, Tenn.	Tenn.
46	1388	Robert Nixon	RHP	Adelphi (N.Y.)	N.Y.
47	1418	Corey Embree	OF	Moberly (Mo.) HS	Mo.
48	1448	Blaine O'Brien	RHP	Keystone (Pa.)	Pa.
49	1478	Brian Hansen	OF	St. Cloud State (Minn.)	Minn.
50	1508	Tyler Baker	C	Shawnee Heights HS, Tecumseh, Kan.	Kan

Let's put this in the time vault and look at it again in 3 years.