Questions for Tito

 I have listened to a lot of Francona's postgame 'press conferences', whether they are actual or just writers asking him questions in his office.  I have been struck by how the writers seem to be walking on eggshells when they ask these questions, or at least that is my impression.

If I had been there asking questions after tonight's game I would have asked:

1. Why didn't you pinch hit Freeman for Zunino in the 9th today?

2. David Fry's last AB before tonight was 10 days ago in Columbus.  How do you plan to get him some more ABs?

3. Arias has struck out in almost half his ABs this year, including 8 of his last 14.  What are thy working on with him to get him to make more quality contact?

The problem with what I see going on here is that they say Arias is a big part of their future.  I know he is young but how have they made this determination?  Arias does not have much speed, he doesn't make a lot of contact, he doesn't have a great walk rate.  The only two things he has shown is a great arm at SS and some penchant for power.  A good fielding SS with power who can carry a .250 average is worth a lot, especially when is young and cheap.   But how can you look at his performance and say he is a big part of your future when he has to pretty much play great defense and hit like he did in 2021 in Columbus.  The last two years he has not been that player.  I just don't get it.

Could it be that they sent Gonzalez down because he reminded them too much of Bobby Bradley and Franmil Reyes?  That is, he might have been a flash in the pan and is done?  

I get that. But what is the infatuation with Arias.   If he is the heir apparent to Rosario at SS I get it.  But trade Rosario and let's get this transition going.  Playing a guy in RF that has NONE of the offensive attributes you want in a right fielder and ZERO experience playing there is a bad idea.  It makes no sense when you can get him ABs by just trading Rosario.

Antonnetti today said that transactions aren't happening.  I don't doubt him but, really?  Teams that need a SS aren't willing to trade for one right now and, instead, are going to wait another 50 games before getting one who solves their SS problems?  I think there are good trades out there, but that is just my opinion.

Finally, I am glad David Fry got into a game today but expecting ANYTHING out of the guy when you have frozen him out for 10 days without an at bat creates a self-fulfilling prophecy if your opinion is that he isn't a quality ML player.  In my opinion, as the 26th guy on your team he is one of the most valuable role players in the majors.  How many guys can give you professional defense at 3 positions and provide some offense?  Hey, he may just be a 25th or 26th player but, in my opinion, he will be an important part of this team if given a chance.  But if you DON'T give him a decent chance you have just created a self-fulfilling prophecy when he doesn't perform. 

Thoughts For A Monday: In Comes Detroit And Other Thoughts

DETROIT COMES IN

I had this thought last night that we need to win this series to stay ahead of Detroit.  Then I realized that this was 1980s thinking, just to not be embarrased by being behind a team that is still in their rebuild. The key here is NOT to win this series so we stay ahead of Detroit, it is to win this series so we can either gain ground or stay in reach of Minnesota.  

During the season there are so many ebbs and flows for other teams that intersect our season based on when we play that team and how we are playing that it is hard to predict what will happen in any given series.  We are still not scoring runs (6 in 3 games against Minnesota, 14 in our last 6 games) so I will be looking more about what our offense can produce right now, about getting that offense going.  We are fortunate to be only 2.5 games out of first place in the AL Central right now.  We will just root for the boys and hope they can put up a great series against the Tigers.

Speaking of the boys, it will be interesting to see if David Fry plays tonight.  Detroit starts a left-hander but now our bench is Arias, Freeman, Fry and Brennan, 3 RH hitters and 1 LH hitter.  I could see us starting a lineup tonight that looks like:

Kwan LF

Straw CF

Ramrez 3B

Bell 1B

Rosario SS

Gimenez 2B

Freeman DH

Zunino C

Fry RF

DOUBLE PLAYS

So far this year we have hit into 21 double plays (0.61 per game while last year we hit into 119 DPs (0.73 per game).  Of course, our lack of baserunners this year, 301 OPS compared to .383 last season) could have a lot to do with the difference in % DPs this year. Our leaders so far are Rosario (5), Naylor (5) and, surprisingly, Kwan (4).  So far Josh Bell has not hit into a DP although you can see how his swing path and results so far could lead to be susceptible.  Still, as I said at the beginning of the season, maybe he wouldn't hit into as many with the outlawing of the shift.  Seems, so far, to be playing out that way.

Note that Tyler Freeman has a penchant for hitting into DPs in his career (35 in 366 minor league games, 2 in 84 ABs in the majors) and Fry and Arias are still rookies so there is that.  

MINORS REVIEW

Really not a lot to say about what is going on in the minors right now.  Only Rocchio and Bo Naylor stand out to me so far, a good thing because they are in AAA.  Noel and Jonathon Rodriguez look like they might be about to break out as the weather warms up as they are hitting and, generally, laying off those chase pitches down and away and, in fact, getting a good (for them) number of walks.  Aaron Bracho is becoming interesting with his sudden HR pop just about the time that Gabriel Rodriguez and Junior Sanquintin appear to be fading into organizational player territory.   

As far as pitching, no one besides Gavin Williams is standing out right now as far as prospects. Herrin, Plesac and, to some extent, Gaddis, are performing well after their demotions which is a good thing, depth-wise.  The guys I am looking for having breakout years, Webb, Nikhazy, Mace, are not doing it yet and some of our younger players like Fox, Tolentino, Tena, Angel Martinez and others are REALLY struggling.  

It is early but, right now, the minors is sort of blah to me.  There is plenty of time for this to turn around but we are starting to get enough games in to see trends.  Keeping my fingers crossed that these trends change soon.

Thoughts For A Sunday: The Result Was Good, The Signs Were Not Good

 We won the game....yeah.  The Twins did their best to give us the game and, this time, we did just enough not to give it back.

But there were some signs there that weren't that good, in my opinion.

• Andre Knott said that the Guardians said they 'need to get Gabriel Arias going because he is an important part of our future.' or something like that.  So they demote Oscar Gonzalez and put Arias in RF.  In true Amed Rosario fashion, he drops a very catchable fly ball.  For the game Arias was 0-2 with 2 Ks and 1 BB.  For the season he   For the season he is hitting .171 and has K'd 21 times in 47 ABs.  Last yera he hit .193.  In 2022 he hit .240 at AAA with 13 HRs in 288 ABs with 78 Ks.  Note that 2022 was his second full season in AAA.  They just sent Oscar Gonzalez down to 'get him going'.   

WARNING SIGN: They played Arias out of position against a tough right-handed pitcher when Brennan was available just to 'get him going'.  His defense almost cost us the game and his offense was non-existent.  He should be sent to the minors to get plenty of reps to get himself going.  The comment, the position he was playing, his stats, EVERYTHING, screams send him to the minors to get his act toghether.

• David Fry continues to sit.  I am reminded of two movies
• Wilfred Brimley in "The Natural" saying "Well, I may have to take him but it doesn't mean I have to play him.  EVER."
• The guy playing the Art Howe character in "Moneyball", refusing to play Scott Hatteberg at first base.  Then Billy Beane trading Carlos Pena so that Howe had no choice.

Fry is not chopped liver.  I have watched him play for two years at AAA.  He is professional, has played good defense, ESPECIALLY this year at 1B and 3B, can play some in the outfield and has about A MILLION TIMES more experience playing catcher than Gabriel Arias has playing RF.

WARNING SIGN:  The guy comes up and sits except for one ridiculous pinch-running assignment where, as a slow white guy, he replace Josh Bell on second base...in an at-bat where he could have pinch hit with the bases loaded in a game we were winning in the top of the 9th.  Instead, Francona pinch hit Gonzalez who was in a season-long slump.  Francona should have pinch hit Fry in that situatuon.  I get that these are all important games and maybe Fry will play against Detroit but the guy has now sat for about 5 days without playing.  How effective do we think he will be with that layoff facing ML pitching for the first time?  Can we say self-fulfilling prophecy?

• Josh Bell was, in my opinion, safe yesterday when Miranda bobbled a potential doubleplay ball.  The Guardians didn't challenge when I think they would have won.  I have seen a number of times this year when they weren't quick enough on the trigger or simply didn't challenge plays they could have won.  I don't know how they compare to other teams in that regard but, from where I sit, they are too slow or simply do not get good information about when to challenge and when not to, losing a number of opportunities for rallies.  Not that they are bad all the time, but when they are bad, they are really bad at it.

WARNING SIGN: Francona never looks quick on these things and more than once this year he was bailed out by the umpires cutting him some slack when he didn't really challenge in time.  It just seems like he is too slow.  This is something that can be fixed by quick information back to him.  This needs to be fixed.

• Brayan Rocchio is mashing.  He is making highlight reel plays although, truth be told, he is not as good at SS as Arias is.  Still, he is a switch-hitter who is hitting for average, steals bases and can play around the infield.  The fact he wasn't brought up when Gonzalez went down is disturbing.  I love Tyler Freeman's potential but the reason I think he came up is because he has been in the majors before.  It was clearly Rocchio's turn, especially since Freeman has never played the outfield in his life except for one game in a HS all-star game.

WARNING SIGN; Don't know what the warning sign is here except that maybe Francona will always opt for the more experienced guy, even if he isn't the right guy. 

• Bunting - I have already covered how Francona is not very good at the bunt, not considereing the guy who is bunting but, rather, assuming that everyone can bunt, especially rookie middle infielders, when, in fact that isn't true.  I have already documented how he asked Freeman to bunt when the guy had only 3 sacrifices in 1500 plate appearances in the minors.  One could argue that top prospects are not asked to bunt so that may skew his numbers but, really?  Ask a guy to bunt who doesn't have much experience?  

WARNING SIGN: I am not against bunting in general but I am against bunting the way Francona deploys it.  When Austin Hedges bunted I was all over it because (a) he couldn't hit and (b) knowing he couldn't hit he learned how to bunt effectively.  With this team and it's speed, you don't have many situations in which you HAVE to bunt, and, in my opinion, you only bunt in today's baseball when you absolutely have to.

• The wild and crazy Jose.  Twice this week he has done, how can I put this, overly aggressive things on the bases. 

WARNING SIGN: To me, when your captain and leader is doing crazy stuff it is a sign of desperation and you don't want to see that out of your leaders, either players or management.  So, there's that.

• Arias in RF.  Hey, my wife knows baseball. As we were watching Arias drop that ball yesterday, I said that I think it was his first game in RF ever.  She said 'Really, and he is playing it in the majors?'  My thought exactly, darling.  Shades of Amed Rosario.  Deploy a guy at a position he isn't comfortable in.  David Fry would have been soooo much better in terms of experience in the outfield than Arias.

WARNING SIGN: To me, learning to play a new position happens in the winter and in ST.  How many times did we hear that Freeman was going to be getting reps in the OF in ST but we never, NEVER saw it in a game.  Then he was going to play RF in Columbus the day before he was called up.  Really? One game, wave the magic wand and then he is good.

So, now we are at gametime.  But some things to watch for over the next couple of weeks.

Thoughts for a Saturday - 1000 Blog Posts and Still Cranking - Now Let's Talk Baseball

 To all of you who have read this blog site over the years, thank you for listening to an old guy talking about Guardians baseball.

I just noted the stats on this site and realized that this is the 1000th post I have on this blog.  

Fanfare, cue the fireworks and party noisemakers.  

OK, now that we are done with the festivities, let's talk baseball.

• Todd Paquette (thanks for all your great work, Todd) posted a video of Jose Cedeno hitting a HR off the Dodgers in an extended ST game.  The pitcher he hit it off was, I think, Hyun-Il Choi, a Korean prospect who is a relatively highly-regarded prospect in the Dodgers system who is in extended ST rehabbing an injury.    So, while it is just extended, it means a little more to me if the guy he hit the HR against was not just another guy coming over from the Dominican for his first taste of Complex League baseball this summer.
• Hankins going to start today.  Still waiting for the debuts of Boyd, Haffer, Planez, DeLucia, Genao, Tucker, Valera, Misiaszek, Campbell, DeLauter and the recoveries of Morris and McKenzie.
• Note that small ball doesn't always work,k even in the low minors: Lynchburg under .500 while having great OB and SB totals but very little power (7 HR at last glance).  The Guardians need to set some more power hitting.
• Rocchio with his first HR.  Still giving him the next chance and sending Arias down.  Freeman still getting cheap hits and slapping the ball the other way.  He gets his chance this season, just not now.
• Bobby Miller (one of the headlines in "The Trade" with the Dodgers), gives up 4 runs in 1 2/3 innings in his second start of the year.  Still looks rusty.  Hope he's not hurt again.
• Looking at today's pitchers in the minors, Zach Plesac, Will Dion (tandem), Ethan Hankins, Hunter Stanley (prospect or suspect), Tommy Mace (control or no control) and Alonzo Richardson (currently not many Ks and more BB than Ks, prospect or gimmick guy/suspect), all stand out as guys who are worth watching today.  Some on the fence (Stanley, Richardson, Mace), some recovering from injury (Hankins), some trying to keep up beating the odds (Dion) and some still searching for their mojo to kick in (Plesac). 
• Furman needs to be promoted.  He doesn't belong at low A, he is a polished college bat for gosh sakes!
• Kelly and Barager look like guys on the train to/from Cleveland if we ever clear up a roster spot and need to go on the merry-go-round we had last year when we needed an extra arm for a couple of days.
• Give David Fry a chance, please!  He should have batted against the Yankees in the 3-2 victory.  He can help at least a lttle.  Whitey Herzog would have found a way to work him in and have him have success doing it. The White Rat was a genius at that.
• De Los Santos, unsung hero of the bullpen so far...Morgan not far behind although he scares me like Bob Wickman used to.  It's not really a save unless you load the bases was Wickman's motto.

Perspective

 Short post tonight following the loss to Minnesota.  Four points:

• I predicted the Guardians to go 91-71 this season and layed out in a post this winter how I thought each series would go.  Entering the Minnesota series I had the Guardians being 16-15.  They were 14-17, so not that much different.  In the Minnesota series I had them going 2-1 so we are still within reach of them being 16-18 and only two games behind the record I predicted, one that was supposed to lead to a 91-71 record.
• As I have said before, I am a lifelong Cleveland baseball fan, a diehard, really.  But I lived my entire working career in St. Louis and married and became a Cardinals fan.  Part of the reason, I guess, that I am more calm about the Guardians current situation is because, as I get older, I am less concerned about the day-to-day of the season compared to the overall result.  The other part of the reason is looking at the Cardinals season unfold.  10-23 for a proud franchise with two perennial all-stars and a bunch of other good players, a record only worse than the teams in baseball TRYING to have the worst record this year.  Basically all the lost from last year's playoff team were icons but long in the tooth veterans Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina.  That should, in and of itself, not be the reason for what may end up being the worst start, by far, in this proud franchise's history.  When I start to bemoan how the Guardians are doing I think about the Cardinals and how it could be a lot worse.  
• If someone had told me that Battenfield was up in the beginning of May and no hit  the FIRST PLACE Minnesota Twins for 5 2/3 and gave us 7 innings of 2-hit, 2-run baseball with 7 Ks and 0 BB, I would have taken it.  Battenfield has been solid so far and for a guy not listed in most people's top 30 Guardians prospects this winter, I think most fans would have taken what he has given us so far and been really happy with it.
• Interestingly, looking back on the comments about how Dolan and others were thinking the team might struggle LAST year, those comments really describe how this year's team is performing.   This team should be hitting better than it is and I think it will.  We don't have Ernie Clement, we don't have Owen Miller, we don't have Austin Hedges and Myles Straw is looking more like the Myles Straw of 2021 than the 2022 version.  We should hit better and I think we will.  We just need to keep it together until we get all the cylinders firing in the proper order.

Thoughts About Our Minor League Prospects - Interesting Performances, Brayan Rocchio and How My Breakout and Bubble Prospect Candidates Are Doing So Far

 Interesting Performances - May 4th Edition

• On the heels of Ross Carver hitting 94 mph the other day, Tanner Burns hit 95 mph early in the game last night.  I don't think he held that velocity, leading to him getting hit later in the game, but it was interesting, nonetheless.  
• Last year we had a lot of 10+ strikeout games by our minor league pitchers.  In the early season you don't see that many because guys are on pitch counts.  Nevertheless, we have seen some good K games early this season.  
• Yesterday Reid Johnston struck out 9 in 4 innings for Lake County.   He had a good breaking ball and just enough fastball to keep guys off-balance.  Although he is old for this level, maybe we have another 2021 draftee who might make the majors some day.
• Joey Cantillo the other night with 13 Ks in 5 innings for Akron
• Recent hitting performances that are interesting
• Coming back from an injury, Wuildredo Antunez is heating up at Lynchburg.  Along with Collado, Benjamin, Devers, Saduy and Mejias, they make the Hillcats very interesting this year.  Maybe keeping Furman, Lipscomb, Cavanaugh and Turner, among other college guys, down at low A to beign their ML careers will actually help the development of the young guys, even if the bloated stats of the older guys mean nothing as they are too old for that league.
• Rocchio looks ready but he doesn't have a HR yet and his walk rate at AAA is only acceptable.  Still, I would like to see what he could do with extended playing time in the majors.  Escpeically as a switch-hitter and, to me, he looks good from both sides of the plate so far this season.
• Tyler Freeman is being Tyler Freeman.  Being hit by pitches and hitting pitches.  One thing I will say is that he gets a LOT of cheap hits.  His looper over the first baseman (who was holding the runner) that langed on the infield DIRT yesterday is the latest.  I think they bloat his stats at Columbus even though he has been stinging the ball, especially before his call-up.

Let's look at the progress of my breakout candidates and the guys on the bubble who I mentioned in my pre-season post:

• Ryan Webb - So far his velocity and performance have been disappointing. He has had his development slowed by injuries but with his fellow 2021 draftee Tanner Bibee in the majors and with Gavin Williams, from the same draft, on the doorstep of the majors, I expected more from Webb out of the gate.  His velocoity is not ML average right now.  Maybe as the temperature warms up...
• Dough Nikhazy - Just when I thought his control couldn't get any worse...it did.  He is a mess right now and it makes me wonder if the Cleveland Guardians Finishing School for Young Pitchers have just lost too many important instructors to be at the top of their game right now.
• Jose Cedeno - Reports from extended ST look like he is right on track for a monster season in the ACL this summer...or maybe even at Lynchburg.
• Jonathon Rodriguez - So far he is making 2022 look like an aberration and not a breakout season.  He is not hitting well and not hitting for power, surprising after the couple of dingers he hit in ML spring training games this year.
• Dayan Frias - Too early to tell but he is hitting for average but not power.  He is now playing 3B which, if that sticks, would allow him to trade flexibility and speed for muscle, improving his SLG.  Good news is that his bat is heating up, even if only with singles.
• Juan Brito - Juan being Juan.  Taking walks, hitting for average and hitting for power.  Nothing special or breakout-worthy here but at least he is dominating the strikezone.  Not surprising after his ST performance.
• Justin Boyd - Excited to see him but he still isn't off the IL.  Really wonder what is going on
• Gabriel Rodriguez - Nothing special so far from GRod.  Expected a JRod (See above) breakout season from Gabriel but he is just keeping his head above water, somewhat, so far.
• Mason Hickman - I expected the full-time move to the bullpen to take hold this year and for him to take off as a prospect but it has been the same old Mason: one tantalizingly good performance followed by a mediocre or bad one.
• Aaron Davenport - His control is a mess.  Again, is our minor league pitching development program suffering as evidenced by Davenport going backwards, somewhat, on his 2022 performance at Lake County.

In the prospects on the bubble category:

• Gabriel Rodriguez - So far, he is drifting into/trendng towards the suspect/organizational player group.
• Alexfri Planez - Can't tell yet as he hasn't played while recovering from an injury.
• Jonathon Rodriguez - Like Gabriel, trending towards suspect territory
• Micah Pries - Treading water at AAA but not exactly knocking the door down to get to majors.  His path is difficult anyway but without dominating AAA pitching, he is trending towards an organizational guy who might get a cup of coffee in the majors somewhere in his career.
• Isaiah Greene - Hurt yesterday but, before then, was REALLY not performing.
• Tanner Burns - Still treading water but, in his second year at Akron, really hasn't done anything to earn a promotion.  Compare with Bo Naylor's first and second seasons at Akron.    Jury is still out on Burns but nothing positive to report yet, in terms of domination at AA or enhanced stuff.
• Jake Fox - Started slowly at Lake County and is now out with an injury.  Let's hope this does not become a lost year for his development
• Juan Brito - Juan being Juan.  No change expected in his prospect status.
• Ethan Hankins - No data yet as he hasn't pitched
• Logan T. Allen - The one guy on this list who has made a jump.  Still, he has to maintain his fastball velocity longer into games or he could become the same, very hittable guy he was at AAA in the last half of 2022.  But there is progress there that we are all happy to see and he has now moved off this list, in my opinion.

Predicting What Our Roster Will Be Like This Winter And How We Will Get There

 OK, we are a month into the season.  Why not talk about the future for the Guardians. Specfically, why not talk about what our roster will look like when we have to set it for the 2023 Rule 5.  I think this exercise will help us plan for the rest of the season in terms of trades and other moves we will make (who will we call up, who will we leave in the minors, etc.).  Let's start with what we have and see what is coming down the road.

WHO WE MIGHT REMOVE FROM THE 40-MAN

Players who will be traded or not re-signed: Beiber, Plesac, Rosario, Zunino, Gallagher.

Players in danger of being traded or DFA'd to make room on the roster: Battenfield, Sandlin, Tena, Fry, Brito, Herrin, Palacios

That's 12 guys who we could clearly lose without hurting the core of players going forward.  That's a lot to build on in terms of roster additions, trade additions and free agent signings.

:

Other players who might wear out their welcome on this team include:

Josh Bell (opt-out)

James Karinchak 

Jhonkensy Noel (continued bad performance at AAA)

Arias 

Gonzalez

Brennan

That makes 18 guys (out of 42 on current roster, including 2 60-day DL guys) who might not be on our roster this winter when it is time to set it for the Rule 5 draft.  

Now it should be pointed out that losing ANY of those guys for nothing is not a good thing.  Any of the guys on the above list are, at least, the type of guy who would be traded for a late-season rental of a veteran.  Just because they aren't valuable to us doesn't mean they don't have value.  

WHO WE ARE LIKELY TO BE ADDING

From the list above for each guy we add we will have to remove one of them in some way. Highest ranked prospects who might be added during or after the season:

Daniel Espino (after season only)

Gavin Williams (only added to the 40-man if it is during the season)

Tanner Burns (after season only)

Really, looking at the minors right now, there are no other prospects who I think we would add.   People asked if we would add Daniel Espino after his latest surgery.  Given what happened with Santander and the fact that Espino is one of the top 20 prospects in all of baseball, I think the answer is yes, even if his development has been stunted the last two years.

So, at least at this early point in the season, I don't see us having a real problem adding up to 3 guys to the 40 man this winter and still leaving room for trades and FA signings.  Obviously we would have to lose prospects but as long as we can get equal, non-rule 5 eligible value for them, I think we are in a good place.