At Some Point You Just Gotta Say...

 (1) ...sometimes change for the sake of change is OK.  We have given guys such long leashes on this team over the last couple of years that there is no incentive to fix any problems these guys have.  Arias has had plenty of chances and looks lost at the plate and in the field and like he is giving the laziest of efforts.  Send him out.  Rocchio looks anything BUT like 'the professor' he was claimed to be vis-a-vis his baseball IQ.  In fact, it looks like he is just going off of instinct as guys who hit .200 should not be swinging at 2-0 or 3-0 pitches out of the zone and running over their teammates.  DFA'd Laureano and Florial and sent JRod out. Send out Rocchio and Arias and bring up Tena and Noel.   Get Brito ready in the wings as Brennan, to me, is on a short leash, too.

(2)...your starting pitching is your starting pitching.  Look, Cleveland may be one of the few teams in baseball who has NOT sent out an Opener over the past two years.  Maybe that's inaccurate but it seems like Cleveland is at least trying.  I think letting go of Quantrill and Civale really exposed them as did inactivity in the free agent market.  That being said, Kent, Avila, Parsons...they're all DFA possibilities if you need roster spots.  Even Strzelecki and Curry are DFA possibilities if you have to dig deeper into your roster (don't think you will).  But the bottom line here is unless a great deal incredibly drops in your lap, you go with what you have. I don't like it and I would love to do something but the time is really end of July to make a trade and when we make the trade we should be trading from a position of strength, not panic.  A heck of a lot would have to improve on this team for us to make a deep run in the playoffs.  No panic required.

(3)...draft Bazzana.  Nothing that has happened recently tells me we should go another way.  But this does teach us one thing: if you stack your farm system with LH slap hitters it does give you pause to take the best player available if he, too, hits LHed.  Your farm system should never be so unbalanced that you talk yourself out of a guy like Bazzana.  They should be looking at who is available at 36 and 48

(4) ...keep up the promotions.  Kayfus, Genao following on the heels of Wilkinson is a good sign this organization is being aggressive with their promotions.  For this organization an aggressive promotion has, in the past, been right after a league all-star break at 50% of games played.  More usually it was when only 40% of games or less, were left in the league a guy was promoted to.  Now you are at roughly 60% of games left in the league these guys are promoted to.  Nice to see Furman promoted, too.  A normal development pathway for a real prospect would have had him starting this season in AA.  Next I would like to see Messick to AA, Nikhazy and Mace to AAA, Denholm and Peterson to AA.  Let's start stressing those SP and get the pipeline moving.  

(5) ...it's time to keep the good vibes going and extend Josh Naylor.  In reality, if you can't extend him then you should trade him and his brother Bo.  I think that might kill the vibes and none of us know if it is Cleveland or Naylor and his representatives or both groups who are not allowing an extension to be done.  But, right now, one way to keep the good vibes going is to extend Josh Naylor.

There are a lot of other things that we could talk about but these are the things that I think of that are in the forefront right now.  Go Guards!.

2024 Draft - Part 15 - A Look Back At The 2021 Draft.

 I have written previously about Cleveland’s 2021 draft which still has a chance to be the best draft in Cleveland baseball history.  As part of the preparation for the 2024 draft I wanted to look back at 2021, which, to me, represents the best mixture in Cleveland history of a draft form understanding the strength of a draft with the strength of the organization, producing an outstanding collection of draft picks that organization turned into legitimate prospects.  

1 (23) - Gavin Williams - Majors

2 (58) - Doug Nikhazy -AA - 1.19 ERA in 6 starts

2S (69)- Tommy Mace - AA - 5-1 - 2.03 ERA in 8 starts

3 (95) - Jake Fox - A - (#18 Guardians prospect by MLB Pipeline)

4 (125) - Ryan Webb -AA - 3.23 ERA in 10 starts

5 (156)- Tanner Bibee - Majors

6 (186) - Aaron Davenport - AA - 3-1, 1.50 ERA in 9 starts

7 (216) - Jack Leftwich - AA - 3.80 ERA in 13 relief appearances

8 (186) - Rodney Boone - AA - 2.40 ERA in 8 starts

9 (276) - Will Dion - AAA - (#25 Guardians prospect)

10 (306) - Franco Aleman - AAA - (#27 Guardians prospect)

11 (336) - Hunter Stanley - AAA - currently injured

12 (366) - Conner Kokx- AA -.242 BA

13 (396) - Davis Sharpe - AA

14 (426) - Trenton Denholm - A+ - 3.35 ERA IN 8 starts

15 (456) - Alaska Abney - A+ - 1.08 ERA IN 14 relief appearances

16 (486) - Zack Pettway - voluntarily retired due to injuries

17 (516) - Tyler Thornton - AA - 4.50 in 12 relief appearances

18 (546) - Tommy Ventimiglia - ACL 

19 (576) - Reid Johnston - AA - injured

20 (606) - Jake Miller - A+ 

So, really-2 months into their 3rd full professional season (4th season overall), the Guardians have only lost one player from the 21 they drafted, even considering new US player caps.  Almost all the remaining players are performing well, providing welcome headaches over which ML-caliber prospect(s) will they roster against the Rule 5 this fall, because all of the remaining guys they drafted have a greater than O chance of becoming MLB players eventually.  This draft is still on track to become one of the best, if not the best, Cleveland draft of all time.

The State of the Cleveland Guardians - Sunday Morning - May 26, 2024

 It is May 26th.  If I told you at the end of spring training that:

• After 2 starts Bieber would be done for the year with TJ surgery
• Gavin Williams would not pitch until after the all-star break
• We had 3 starters with sub-.200 batting averages and only one position player hitting .270 or better
• Kwan is on the IL for a month and Hentges is just coming off the IL after missing the first month plus of the season

and I told you that we would be in 1st place in the AL Central at 35-17...and we didn't win a single game by forfeit...

...would you have believed me?  

That, in a nutshell, is the current state of the Cleveland Guardians.  

When taking stock of where the team is now, the other shoe dropping would be where do we go from here.  So let's dive into that:

• Position Players - Look, only Kwan, Ramirez, Naylor and maybe Gimenez are performing at acceptable levels.  Freeman, Bo Naylor and our DH/RF crew of Florial and Laureano all hitting under .200.  Both our SS are hitting poorly, with Rocchio repeatedly swinging at 2-0 and 3-0 pitches and being way out of control on defense.; Arias looks like he isn't putting in a good effort on either side of the ball and looks like he has lost interest in playing hard.  We need to send Arias to AAA as a follow-up to bringing up Jonathon Rodriguez and bring up Daniel Schneeman.  While there is no guarantee of success from these latter two it is time to do something.  Given that Laureano and Arias both have minor league options left, we can do that without risking losing either of them.  While Bo Naylor is hitting poorly I see no option but to keep him and let him catch.  He is a vastly underrated pitch framer at this point in his career and that, at the least, is worth him being on this team.  David Fry has been really valuable to this team but I still stress that his value comes from being used sparingly and that his production might crater if he has a full-time role.  However, if he continues he has a real shot of making the all-star game based on his offensive stats and his versatility.  You heard it here first!
• Rotation - There is only one pathway forward at the current time: Keep the current rotation healthy and performing.  Why?  There is no one else on or not on the 40-man roster who can help.  Xzavion Curry is a disaster at AAA after making a great spot start earlier this year for Cleveland and is still being pressed into service with Carracci on the IL.  Joey Cantillo is hurt and wouldn't be ready, at this rate, until August or September at the earliest.  Will Dion is the only non-AAAA pitcher at AAA and he is not ready and he isn't even on the 40 man.   AA pitchers like Doug Nikhazy and Tommy Mace are making progress but their history and the fact they are not on the 40 man means that them even making a spot start is problematic.
• Bullpen - Surprisingly, the best bullpen in the majors right now, doesn't currently need any help.  If they do they have Anthony Gose, Eli Morgan and prospects like Andrew Walters, Tanner Burns, Franco Aleman (when healthy), Nick Mikolajczak (when he is stretched out), Curry (for long relief) or any of the aforementioned AAAA relievers who can provide depth w/o worrying about being lost if we have to DFA them if we need their roster spot.  Plus, at some point, Karinchak will be back.

I don't know where this season will go.  The Guardians have gotten here with acceptable starting pitching that may not be sustainable, quality bullpen work that may possibly be sustainable and timely hitting and somewhat good defense which should be sustainable and even improved upon by our younger players stepping up and becoming what we think they should be.  When the Guardians started their series with the Mets, they began a stretch of 18 games (vs. Mets, Angels, Rockies, Royals, Nationals, Marlins) where they only play one team (Kansas City) with a winning record.  If they continue to get the current production from the bullpen and rotation and get better hitting from everybody, especially young guys and remain healthy, they, hopefully, will be able to avoid hiccups of the type that their White Sox series was.  

Love what has happened so far.  Hopeful for the future.

p.s.  Saw the tweet of a video taken a long way away from Progressive Field where you could hear the chant of "Jose, Jose, Jose, Jose" right after his HR on Friday might against the Twins and their closer.  Probably one of the most special moments I can remember.  Can't imagine being somewhere in downtown Cleveland and hearing that chant ringing through the streets.  I am hopeful it was as magical for people in downtown as it was for me when I watched that video on X.

The State of The Farm System - May 6, 2024

 Baseball America, in it's 2024 Prospect Handbook, listed Cleveland as having the 19th best farm system in baseball.  This is not a good place for Cleveland to be as it is an organization that relies on their farm system to provide key players for their ML team.  Obviously, having such a young ML roster negatively impacts the prospect talent, likely leading to that low rating.  Still, our pipeline needs to fill up quickly if we are going to compete.

So, now that we are a month into the minor league system and have just started the ACL season, let's take a look at how our minor league stars (top 30 prospects) are doing this year so far and who some of our lower-rated prospects are who are becoming fast risers, and, finally, which of our prospects whose early season struggles making them disappointing (so far) fast fallers are, using my pre-season rankings as a starting point for where they were in the prospect priority on opening day:

GOING DOWN

1. Chase DeLauter - Going from a slow start to the IL is not a good luck for his future value.  The hope was that he might provide a post-deadline August spark for a struggling offense prepping for a September playoff push...not as a finished product but, rather, as a novelty item who would be good for my bum-of-the-month concept.  Not that DeLauter, as our #1 prospect, is a bum.  It's just that the hope of him having a huge start before the league figured him out (see Evan Carter, 2023).  Not going to happen as he re-enters the injury zone.

3. Juan Brito - Up to this year he looked like a solid professional hitter who, literally, could take a BB on any pitcher at any time.  However, in ST 2024 he started to show an impatience not seen before, at least by me.  Whereas in 2023 ST they almost had to MAKE him swing since his plate discipline was so good and mid-/late-game ST pitching was so erratic that there was no need to swing in a lot of his ABs.   Well, this year he is uncharacteristically struggling (.185 BA) while still showing good plate discipline (24 BB in 108 ABs), but, and most troubling, a penchant to strikeout (26 K).  The eye test tells me he has a hole in his LH swing this year (low and inside) and he is a sucker for and can't get to balls there, leading to a .113 BA this year (.282 in 2023).  He is crushing LHP to the tune of .393, an upturn from last year (.200 in 2023)

5. Angel Martinez - My pick to have a breakout year, he has been injured and will miss a good portion of this year, meaning he is going into the Chase DeLauter zone.  

6. Alex Clemmey - An ERA north of 9 and plenty of walks means that Clemmey is not going to be rocketing through the farm system as expected. It even casts a pall on his future as a top prospect as you would have hoped that a HS pitcher this refined would AT LEAST have his pitching mechanics and control down pat by now.  He is pitching like an organizational player on the verge of getting released, not like a top prospect in this organization, meaning it will likely be a slow and frustrating climb for him through to the majors.

7. Jose Tena - Started slow, caught fire, cooled off.  Not the Tena we were hoping to see after the organization showed faith in him by gifting him his ML debut last year.  The tools are there and he is clearly, to me, taking the game more seriously this year.  Just that the performance has not caught up with his improved maturity level.

8. Joey Cantillo - Look, my position was that he was improving his command and control and all he needed was a solid year to push into the top 3 in our farm system.  As he started the year on the IL, this threw a monkey wrench into those plans.  Hope he gets out of DeLauter zone soon because, if not, his pivotal 2024 year will disappear and we will be looking at the first half, or more, of 2025 being his polishing period to make him even close to being ready for the majors.

20. Jhonkensy Noel - Poised for a breakout season, he is struggling MUCH more than you would expect for his 2nd year at AAA after the relative success he experienced last year.  Time will tell if the warm weather brings him out of his slump but, right now, it looks like the people who minimized his potential in their ratings over the winter may have been correct.

21. Rafael Ramirez, Jr. - Lynchburg was a tough placement for so young a kid but, on a normal development path that got him to a good level BEFORE he was Rule 5-eligible, it was a good placement. He is sub-.200 so far and is struggling mightily on defense.  Maybe things work out later in the year but don't discount the possibility that he ends up back in the ACL if he continues to struggle like he has so far.

22. Will Dion - He has struggled so far this year as batters just foul off his breaking stuff in the zone and foul off that same stuff if it is close, all because they know his 88-90 mph fastball can't beat them.  Either he has reached his ceiling as a starter and needs to be moved to long relief where shorter stints might aid his fastball velo or, like last year when he was promoted to Akron, it may just take him a while to figure out how to get the more advanced AAA hitters out.  Remember, this was an aggressive promotion for Dion this year so it could take him until June to adjust to AAA and become as dominant there as he was at lower levels since his drafting in 2021.

23. Dayan Frias - Aggressively pushed to Akron this year, he is really still struggling to hit AA pitching.  This is a long-term play for Frias and I prefer not to look at his stats so far but, if you do, you do start to ask questions.

26. Jake Fox - Repeating Lake County when his stats said he should probably have been challenged with a promotion to Akron is bad enough.  But hitting sub-.200 in his repeat year is problematic.  Still time to turn it around but not what you would expect from a true prospect repeating a level just because there was no room on the roster for him at AA.

DOING HIS THING

2. Jaison Chourio - Clearly he is living up to the hype of my #2 ranking and is the poster child for "doing his thing".  He is putting up professional ABs, showing speed, hitting for some power, hitting in the clutch and showing EXTREME plate discipline (22 BB/104 PA).  He is doing it all.

4. Kyle Manzardo - Doing everything that could be expected from a very good prospect in his second year in AAA,  He is ready to have the puppy fur knocked off of him in MLB and, today, he gets that opportunity.

9. Andrew Walters - Having your first real assignment after the draft being AA is daunting but he is doing his thing, overmatching unrefined AA hitters with his riding fastball.  He looks ready for a promotion to AAA by the end of May if he continues this way and then we can likely, in a 1-month stint for Columbus, determine if he will be ready for a late-season promotion to Cleveland (if needed) or if he needs more minor league refining.  Still, he has looked really good so far as a quick rising overdraft with a very high floor coming out of college as a reliever.

14. Angel Genao - Having a typical 2nd year in A ball performance you would expect from a young player in his teens still trying to figure out pro ball.  That being said, he needs to be promoted to Lake County ASAP to see what we really have in him.

17. Ryan Webb - The bulldog, by college mascot and demeanor, is doing well at AA.  His draftmates Bibee and Williams are both in the majors and even guys drafted higher than him, Nikhazy and Mace, are doing better at the same level.  But Webb just needs to keep on keeping on and he is certainly doing that so far at Akron as, in most outings, he looks like he is controlling the narrative, not the hitters he faces.

19. Jonathon Rodriguez - Basically he is holding his own, making good contact and showing power.  Still with a lot to work on to increase his power back up to previous levels WHILE keeping the same contact and lowered chase rates but still moving forward, which is a good thing.

25. Petey Halpin - His second year in AA is going well but he is a veteran at that level.  After a hot start he is simply looking like a solid prospect at that level I would be expecting him to dominate but he is just treading water.

27. Jackson Humphries - Two weeks ago he would have been on the "Going Down" list but he is doing really well now and it looks like his early season struggles might just have been from the debilitating illness he suffered near the end of ST.  

30. Tanner Burns - Battling some control issues but he still looks like the move to reliever can reasonably be considered a success and he is becoming a first tier depth option for middle relief in Cleveland.

31. Lenny Torres, Jr. - Doing exactly what I would have expected from him based on last year, the AFL and the 2024 ST, he is establishing himself as another priority relief prospect with the Guardians.  Closers in the minors don't mean you will be a closer in the majors but, for a young guy like Torres, Jr., it means the likelihood of being a ML pitcher in a year or two looks more concrete.

FAST RISER

11. Ralphy Velazquez - As I had him rated lower than most because he is not catching any more, limiting a good portion of his hitting value, he is crushing the ball at A ball, reminiscent of Bobby Bradley.  Let's hope the development continues as he appears to have excellent bat-to-ball skills and excellent present power which, combined, is a great combination for a young hitter.

15. Khalil Watson - I am going out on a limb with this guy but he is taking to being pushed to AA, showing all the plus skills he was drafted for.  Still, maturity and focus are an issue although they appear, for the moment, to be moving in the right direction.  Nof a finished product but, currently, one of the better development stories of the 2024 season.

16. Cade Smith - Just like I had Velasquez rated lower than most, I had Smith rated higher than most and he is even exceeding my expectations so far.  Time will tell what we have in him but, right now, he is looking like he may have a Stephan-like first year.

29. Franco Aleman - How a guy who pitched 2 months of essentially scoreless ball at AA in 2023 can be considered a fast riser makes a good question.  Still, to go from a mediocre career before Akron last year to a prospect who has held his own against AAA pitching after less than half a year at AA is impressive.  His performance has become so standard now that he could, in a month, comfortably slip in to the "Doing His Thing" level, which would, to me, mean we are going to see him in Cleveland this year if the wheels would fall off or if relievers continued to get injured.

32. Doug Nikhazy - Hesitant to put him on this list with his injury and his history of control issues but his first couple of starts in AA were exactly what I would expect from a AA veteran: pure domination.  So, there may be some hope there that he has turned the corner and will become another centerpiece (along with Bibee and Williams) for our 2021 draft.

33. CJ Kayfus - Still not a fan of his draft slot in 2022.  Still not sure his domination at Lake County this year is anything more than an experienced hitter dominating inexperienced pitchers and still not sure if he has the power profile that has even a remote chance of being effect in the MLB.  But you can't argue with the base performance he is setting in place to jump start the rest of his professional career.

34. Daniel Schneeman - OK, me putting him at 34 to start the season SHOULD mean that what he is doing in Columbus should come as no surprise, especially since he is repeating AAA.  It's the fact that no one else had him as high as I did in their rankings.  So, yes, his rise is still meteoric from his profile and his early career stats as a pro.  I want to and expect to see him making his ML debut with the Guardians this year.

42. Alex Mooney - Clearly, Mooney is beginning his first full season with a bang.  He is looking more like the late 2nd round projected prospect he was at draft time as compared to the over-slot mistake he looked like as a 7th round pick in the Guardians slap hitter-heavy 2023 draft.  

99. Matt Wilkinson - The now-legendary Tugboat is becoming a household name around the minors, but 15Ks in 6 no-hit innings at any full-season level will do that for you.  He is currently the fastest of all the fast risers, but starting at 99 and performing like he has will do that for you.  And it wasn't like he was experienced or old when he was drafted and is just feasting on younger, less polished competition.  There may be something real here and not just a real feel good story of LLWS hero turned into professional baseball player.

INCOMPLETE

10. Welbyn Francisca - Season just started so no new news.

12. Daniel Espino - Knowing he was out for the year I had already discounted his value.

13. George Valera - Just starting his season so hard to tell what we have yet...or even if he can stay healthy!  Lots of hope from me, though, as we can use all the OF pop we can get.

18. Robert Arias - As the DSL season is not close to beginning, nothing to report here but we need a big, Francisca-like win with Arias to refill our prospect hitter pipeline.

24. Jacob Zibin - Still on the IL recovering from TJ surgery with no professional debut in sight, it is getting a bit problematic for him getting enough reps in to be promoted to Lynchburg after the ACL season ends at the end of June.  Not the place to be, burning 2 of your Rule 5 years without throwing a pitch on a full season team.

28. Ethan Hankins - A guy who I expected to break out this year has had one outing this season and is back on the injured list.  Not where you would want him to be at this point.  Let's hope he can get back quickly as his biological clock for making the majors is ticking.

SUMMARY 

With Manzardo, Wilkinson and Schneeman leading the way and Jaison Chourio and Ralphy Velasquez raking at Lynchburg, there is a lot good to say about our farm system.  The one bad thing to say can be summed in one word: INJURIES.  We have just had so many injuries, especially pitching injuries, it is really messing with our minor league pitching depth and may influence how we draft in 2024 in rounds 3-10, where we may take more college pitchers in a draft that isn't really heavy in college pitching.  Still, you can never have enough pitching and we could also possibly take, and sign, more HS pitching prospect flyers like Zibin and Humphries if we have the draft bonus surplus I thin we are going to have.  So, in the meantime, let's hope that some of the "Going Down" guys right the ship and get their prospect status back up, get the "Doing Their Thing" guys to become fast risers as the weather warms up and they get more comfortable with their surroundings and, finally, that our "Fast Risers" continue to rise fast, earning promotions and having success at the next level.  

Our farm system does not truly look weaker than what I thought it was on opening day but it needs to get a lot stronger to be the pipeline that a low-budget, small-market team like Cleveland has to have.  Let's keep our fingers crossed that all the stars align and this happens and, at the end of the season, we are looking at the Guardians having a top 5 farm system in all of baseball once again.

Is It Time for the Left-handed Catcher?

 Before the 2021 season Anthony Castrovince wrote an interesting article on why there are no left-handed catchers, myth-busting a lot of the typical reasons that have been proposed.  Here's the link: Why there are no left-handed catchers in MLB.

I mean, why not?  There is a stereotype that RH throwing first baseman are at a disadvantage taking pickoff throws at 1B, right?  Yet there are still RH throwing firstbaseman in the majors.  Why? Because it works, gets better hitters in your lineup and, partly, the advantage of having your glove-side closer to the first base line is a huge advantage of preventing doubles at the expense of singles, instead of the other way around for LH throwing firstbasemen.  Same thing with left-handed throwing infielders, in general, although I get his argument a lot more than for first baseman or catchers. 

Given the new stolen base rules and the dearth of good-hitting catchers that allow guys like Austin Hedges to have a job, I thought I would do a quick revisit of the idea.

Clearly, the main reason why there are no left-handed catchers is that no one trains to be a catcher when they are young.   It's not a glamorous position and is the position I feel is most likely to get injured.   But there is the rub.  Just like in any other field of work, one school of thought is that you aim your career in a direction where there are the most jobs.  In baseball, it is clearly as a good hitting catcher who is athletic enough to become a good catcher.  

And you don't have to start young.  Tony Wolters started as a middle infielder in Cleveland's minor league system and tried catching in his 4th year in the minors.   David Fry started catching his senior year in college.  

In the era of positional versatility having your 3rd catcher be able to play 1B, LF and RF would be important.

So, you say, why not go the route of Fry and Wolters and learn catching after you become a pro?  Or, like Bo Naylor, learn to hit LH or throw RH when you are a little kid to enhance your positional versatility.  OK, you have me on that one.  But I repeat: why not a lefty-throwing catcher?  

Let's look at some data:

• One main argument is that there are more RH batters than LH batters and lefty catchers would have a harder time throwing out runners.  Let's look at the ratio of qualified LH and RH hitting batters.  I am only looking at qualified hitters is that they are full-time players and other guys with less plate appearances would likely be part of a platoon and switch-hitters would not be relevant, although you could make the case that since there are more RH pitchers, the numbers below could actually favor a LH catcher since the LHH switch hitter or platoon specialist would hit more often than when a RHH is needed.
• In 2023 the ratio of RHH/LHH was 1.87
• In 2022 it was 2.25
• In 2021 it was 2.19
• In 2020 it was 1.67
• In 2010 it was 1.77
• In 2000 it was 1.42
• In 1990 it was 2.00
• In 1980 it was 1.74
• In 1970 it was 2.15
• In 1960 it was 2.29
• In 1950 it was 1.79
• If you look above it is hard to find a CURRENT trend but back in the day, RHH dominated MLB more than they do today, meaning a potential disadvantage of LH throwing catchers is lessened compared to when this conventional wisdom came to be.
• There are only 4 positions that a LH thrower can currently play as compared to 8 for RH throwers.  Statistically, if you had LH hitting/throwing catchers you would likely be able to improve your lineup balance.

So, as AC says so eloquently in his article, there is no real reason why we can't have LH throwing catchers.  I am all for enhancing your minor leaguers skillsets to make them more valuable to your ML team or in trade.   I am still for trying to teach every pitching prospect the knuckleball once they plateau out when their skills obviously won't play above a certain level.  Matt Waldron has, once again, shown how effective that could be. We have shortstops playing CF for gosh sakes, with Freeman doing a great job.  Like Freeman, Fry and Wolters have shown us, being a good athlete gives you a leg up on switching positions.  We are trying CF with Martinez, Watson, etc., why not try catcher with some of our LH hitting slap hitters, whether they throw RH or LH.  

Let's be innovators, Cleveland.  We have to take advantage of every opportunity and I think with the limitations on the # of minor leaguers we can have in our system, positional versatility and maximizing skillsets has become even more important. Plus, teams have to find a way to stop the running game and I think a LH throwing catcher trying to pick a runner off at 1B might be another tool in a team's arsenal to do just that.  C'mon, Guardians.  INNOVATE.  

2024 Draft - Part 14 - the History of Our 2024 Draft Slots - Our 6th-10th Round Slots

 Ok, let's take a look at the history of the slots for the 6th through 10th rounds of the 2024 draft.  Once we got to round 5, all the draft compensation additions and losses had been factored in and so, starting with our pick at #175, the slot for each subsequent pick SHOULD increase by 30, meaning our 6th round pick would be #205 and so on.  Of course, if a team or team drops out before the 20th round, our pick slot would increase by one or more places in each round.  But, since this has never happened since we went to 40 rounds and now 20 rounds, I'll just assume that we will have the slots as they are now.

So, let's dive in to see the draft history for each of these next 5 slots, remembering that the draft started in 1965 and we will only be looking at the history through the 2019 draft as guys drafted after that are still writing their career story. Also note that as we move into these rounds the data becomes skewed as, in a given year, the same team will make all the picks for those slots during that draft.  So, if a team has a bad draft it means that every pick in the 5 below for that year will not make the majors.  A great draft in these 5 rounds would be like the Brewers had in 2005, where 3 of these 5 slots yielded major leaguers, including Michael Brantly at #205.  It also means that, since about 1996, Cleveland will likely have made picks in each of the slots below or not make a pick in any slot below for that given year.  

#205

• 11 of 55 picks at this slot through 2019 have made the majors
• Michael Brantley and Kyle Kendrick are the most well-known players selected at this slot
• The Guardians have selected once at this spot but that player never played in the MLB.

#235

• 11 of 55 players selected at this slot have made it to the majors
• A number of fringe major leaguers came out of this slot but Jeffrey Hammonds appears to the best player selected at #235.
• Surprisingly from my searching, the Cleveland Guardians have never drafted a player at slot #235

#265

• 13 of 55 players drafted at this slot have made the majors
• A number of fringe major leaguers were drafted at this slot.  Mark Teixeira was the most famous name drafted here out of high school but did not sign.
• It appears the Guardians have drafted once at this slot (through 2019) and Tom Lampkin made the majors.  Zac Kent, currently at AAA Columbus, was also drafted at this slot.

#295

• 7 of 55 players drafted at this slot have made the majors
• The most famous player drafted at this slot was John Stearns.  Pete Rose, Jr. was also drafted at this slot.
• The Guardians have drafted 3 times at this slot through 2019 but none of those players made it to the majors

#325

• 8 out of 55 players drafted at this slot have made it to the majors
• The most famous players drafted at this slot were Dave Parker and Mickey Hatcher
• The Guardians have drafted 3 times at this slot with Jeff Barkley being the only one to have reached the majors.

SUMMARY

Look, rounds 6-10 in the early years of the draft were not what they are now, really skewing the % of players making the majors to below what that percentage is now in these rounds.  Scouting is better buoyed by the advent of analytics and the percentage of college players selected in those rounds is increasing and is starting to produce more major leaguers.  With NIL I see this percentage of success in rounds 6-10 (and, so, at these slots) increasing as I predict that these rounds will be dominated by college players with the best remaining HS players after round 5 choosing to go to college for the NIL money and gambling on their ability to improve in college and stay healthy so they can increase their draft status for when they are college juniors.

Current State of the Cleveland Guardians - 4/22/2024 Edition

 OK, it's April 22nd and the Guardians are 16-6.  That means they only have to go 46-94 the rest of the way to beat my pre-season prediction of a 61-101 finish.  

With that in mind, let's take stock of where this team and its players currently are and where we can expect everyone and everything to go if the season progresses to its natural conclusion.

Team

• Almost everything has gone right so far this season.   Teams we are playing are playing their worst against us.  Important injuries on other teams have seemed to coincide with when we play them. Our relievers, down to the last man, have been really good, some even great, despite some analytics showing that these guys are unlikely to maintain their current level of production.  Tyler Freeman has been impossibly better on defense in CF than anyone could have imagined.  Even with the defensive lapses by Rocchio and Arias, baserunning mistakes galore, no real contribution from Laureano, a poor start from Ramirez and the injuries to Bieber, Williams, Hentges, and no totally unexpected offensive contributions for any individual, they are still 16-6.  It would not surprise me if we only had to go 74-66 the rest of the way to qualify for the playoffs (90-72 overall).
• Austin Hedges may be having an unbelievably unmeasurable, intangible positive influence on this team just like he did the Pirates last year.  Speaking of the 2023 Pirates...
• Realizing that last year the Pirates were 20-8 to open the season, it should be noted that the Guardians still would have to go 4-2 in the next two series to reach that mark and remember that the 2023 Pirates ended up 76-86 after their hot start including losing 11 of 12 after their fast start. So the key is to avoid long losing streaks, minimize bad losses, stay healthy and win the series against teams who are struggling at the time we play them.
• After playing the Red Sox in Cleveland, their schedule is:
• @ Atlanta (3)
• @ Houston (3)
• Angels (3)
• Tigers (3)
• @ White Sox (4)
• If the Guardians can win 2 of 3 from Boston, 1 of 3 in Atlanta and in Houston and win 2 of 3 against Detroit and split 4 games with the White Sox they will have gone 8-8 on this part of their schedule meaning that their overall record would be 24-14.   That would be a great outcome, in my opinion, especially winning 2 of 3 from the Tigers, who will no doubt challenge for the AL Central title this season.   Obviously, all those series are big, but I think the biggest is the Boston series.  If we can show that our 3 out of 4 in Boston was not a fluke with a Boston team that is playing very well we could use that as a springboard to have more success in this 16 game stretch...or...
• The Guardians could lose all 3 to Boston, get swept in Atlanta and lose the first 2 to Houston for an 8 game losing streak before winning the last one in Houston.  They could then lose 3 out of 3 to Detroit before splitting with the White Sox to end up 4-12 on this stretch on the way to a 2023 Pirates-like collapse. 
• While Kwan, Josh Naylor and Andres Gimenez are carrying the team right now, David Fry being David Fry and Gavin Williams and Sam Hentges on the mend, there is still room for improvement for other players with much of that being expected or, at least, hoped for.  

Individual Player Improvement

• Jose Ramirez - For this team to be where they are with his struggles this year is amazing.  Even if he returns to his substandard (for him) 2023 levels, this offense gets a big surge from him.
• Tyler Freeman - His offense should get a lot better than it is now.   This team will need that when the top 3 above cool off.
• Brayan Rocchio - I really think his offense will improve but his defense is just pathetic in every aspect.  He needs to improve that, too, in order for any uptick in offense to help the team, overall.
• Gabriel Arias - He has trended up recently but really needs to get to a .265 BA, 320 OBP, 420 SLG to be a real asset to this team the rest of the way.
• Will Brennan - Like Rocchio, he needs to improve on both sides of the ball and, so far, that improvement over 2023 is not in evidence.  I don't know what switch has to go on but his offense and even his defense have to be better.
• Bo Naylor - The guy, after Ramirez, on this list whose improvement is most likely to occur, all he has to do is keep producing.  If his 2023 mirrors his 2024, by the beginning of May he should be raking.  His defense is already much impvoed from last year.

The Wildcards

• Ramon Laureano - As I HATED this signing in the off-season it is hard for me to think that any improvement will occur.  But I hope that it does but, if not, hope that the Guardians do a Mike Zunino and dump Laureano before June 1st and bring up some youngster who will provide the team with an unexpected spark.  Laureano simply has not helped this team although his veteran presence would imply that he should.  Besides, dumping a non-performing Laureano would help this fanbase consider that no nepotism is taking place, vis-a-vis his prior relationship to Vogt.
• Estevan Florial - He has shown glimpses of what he could be but is still K-ing at an unacceptable rate..and on balls in the zone. His current level of production would suffice if he would just get his BA up to .260 with a corresponding drop in K rate.
• Austin Hedges - Everything else (defensively and bench/clubhouse-wise) is there, but could you PLEASE get your BA up to .200 and you OBP up to .250?  PLEASE!
• Starting Pitching - The current guys, plus Williams, just need to keep on keeping on.  They have kept us in  every game we have played and if we can just keep that going, that will be acceptable.
• Bullpen - There is enough experience and, for the younger guys, talent there to make it continue to work.  Again, keep on keeping on.
• Minor League Prospects - This is a key to a big uplift in performance on the Guardians if guys continue to underperform or get hurt.  I can't impress enough that it is performance by these guys that will likely make the difference in whether we make the playoffs and, especially, if we do, whether we are going anywhere IN the playoffs.  In the best world, we could make the World Series if a bunch of these prospects 'go off'.   If Manzardo can be here and perform well at DH that would help.  If 2-3 of Brito, DeLauter, Martinez, Tena, Rodriguez, Noel and/or some unexpected wildcard (e.g., Schneeman) can have breakout rookie year performances that make up for deficits in parts of the lineup or bench that could be enough to sustain our offensive production.   If bullpen help like Walters, Aleman, Enright, Gose and Burns can be quality and better than what we have now when called up, that would be really useful.  If Curry can be a success as a starter that would be great with any success we get from Dion and, later this year, Cantillo, being unexpected but welcomed plusses, all 3 being depth starters that we KNOW will be needed, as they are every year.  Again, I can't impress enough how important some performances like this are and you only have to go as far as Evan Carter in Texas last year to see how valuable that type of performance in the 2nd half of a season can be.

So things are looking good right now.  Is this all based on a house of cards?  Maybe but if the FO makes the appropriate moves in bringing guys up and sending guys down, you could be looking at annother 2022-like magical season...but with the minor leaguers providing the icing on the cake that propels us further into the playoffs.