2025 Guardians Amateur Draft - Part 14 - Things That Worry/Comfort Me And Random Thoughts

 THINGS THAT WORRY ME (AND COMFORT ME)  LEADING UP TO THIS DRAFT

• WORRY: Ralphy Velasquez was drafted one spot after Colt Emerson in 2023.  Emerson is the #16 prospect in all of baseball.  Velasquez is the #9 prospect...in the Guardians top 30...not even in the top 100 in the game.  I thought this, plus Bo Naylor, Jake Fox and other HS hitters they have drafted would dissuade them from drafting any HS hitter early.  However, Ralphy is currently on a heater, pulling his average over .200 and continuing with his high % of XBH. So...

• WORRY: Despite the struggles this year of Joey Oakie, Jacob Zibin, Chase Mobley, Keegan Zinn and other recent HS pitcher draftees, Braylon Doughty is kind of on a heater himself.   His performance after an aggressive promotion to start the year at Lynchburg added to the success of former high HS pick Alex Clemmy at A+ this year, makes me worry the Guardians are going to spend another high pick or two on HS pitchers. I am all for 3rd day HS pitcher draft picks but I  think you have to go college early to fit into our current competitive window (defined by Ramirez' contract, to be specific).

• WORRY: Slow promotion (Tommy Hawke at Lynchburg, really?) has led to bloated stats for their 2022 and 2023 college slap hitter drafts. That, plus the success of Kayfus, makes me worry they are going to repeat, at some level, of that type of draft in 2025 despite the fact that Kayfus' upside projection of .290 w/15 HRs and no speed for a likely 1Bman in MLB is STILL his current trajectory, despite his quick upward trajectory (i.e., success at AAA),  In my opinion we have more than enough evidence that drafting LH slap hitters with no power (Lampe and Furman, for example) is a bad idea.

• COMFORT: The Guardians draft people like to be innovators.  The 2021 college pitcher draft may be the best draft in franchise history.  The 2023 LHH collage slap hitter draft was certainly a choice.  Maybe that can play to the Guardians advantage this year if they decide that college power hitters and college pitchers in the first 2 days of the draft is the way to go.  If they decide to draft HS pitchers, HS catchers and power hitters (HS and college) on the 3rd day instead of their standard organizational picks of college position player/college catcher/college relief pitcher/HS pitcher flyer 3rd day mix, maybe we can have a great 3rd day.  Plus, making the 11th round pick like a second, first round pick would be an improvement over previous years. The performance so far by Logun Clark should help that, although his BA is still not where I'd hoped it would be.

• COMFORT: There is not a lot of crazy buzz about players bolting up draft boards this late in the draft cycle.  Normally, there is a lot of movement but either teams are planning to play this straight or, like usual, are playing it close to their vests on this.  Still, there is usually some buzz and I haven't seen any, making me think this draft may be more predictable than recent drafts with guys going off the board when expected and teams like the Guardians, who like to be innovators, having the prospects they want to pick be available when they draft. So, it gives me faith that Matt Barr and some of the other guys I have targeted in my Mock 2.0 could still be there when the Guardians have the pick I think they should draft them.

• COMFORT: I have not seen anywhere this draft described anywhere as being strong on power hitters.   Teams like to draft multiple tool position players so a 1 (power) or 2 (power plus hit) tool, potential DH guy doesn't seem to be at the top of teams' boards.  SEEMS. Don't know what the reality is. 

• WORRY: The draft day phrase that makes me shutter with fear is "teams like who they like".  That gives a lot of space for draft room guys who think they are smarter than anyone else in the room (with "room" defined as all the draft people from all the teams) to make dumbass moves that will end up not helping us EVER.  Brady Aiken comes to mind but there have been so many of these head-scratching picks of guys who turn out to be terrible over the years that whenever I see these Cody Bunkelman-like picks that I cringe. So, that is my history and those are my fears.

RANDOM DRAFT THOUGHTS

• Will the Guardians' struggles influence their draft strategy?  For example, if they plan to be sellers at the deadline and target recent HS pitching draftees on other teams' low A rosters (e.g, as they did with Pittsburgh's Michael Kennedy), will that influence their draft strategy away from HS pitchers.  How about targeting switch hitters as trade targets? Even though he hasn't dominated yet, the thought of a bench with a switch hitter like Martinez along with Schneeman (LHH) and Fry (RHH) is intriguing, especially if Fry is the backup catcher next year and they can add another bench guy.  Switch hitters with good defensive versatility (like Martinez) are invaluable, IMO, to a good bench for a small market team, especially if that player has some power.

• I found a great article (2025 MLB Draft: Data Dig, Under the Radar Hitters who Possess Power & Plate Control) that details under-the-radar power hitters with good plate control/contact skills.  I think this could be a good pool of guys for 3rd day selections.  Again, these are 3rd day picks and so scouts shouldn't overthink that they found this pitcher at podunk U who is undervalued because, normally, those guys have a low probability of success and we have run that well dry in previous years.  Maybe time to try something different in 2025 and this article gives me faith those position players with power are still out there.

• The Guardians like to draft guys who have been successful on the Cape and guys who are young for their class.  I wonder how that will play into this draft as there are literal bunches of guys with that profile among the top prospects in this draft class.

• The most recent MLB Pipeline draft has us taking Ethan Conrad.  I hope not.  Most mocks I have seen have Tyler Bremner and Jace Laviollette going pretty early and it looks like Cam Bodine could go in the middle of the first round.  All that it would take is for Fischer to be taken before the Guardians and we may get into a place I don't want to be: taking someone who has bust or role player written all over him.  I think they need someone solid, not spectacular.  Someone who will play with Jose before his contract expires.