First, a mea culpa. I was under the impression that the draft was still a 3 day event. 1-2 on July 13, 3-10 on July 14 and 11-20 on July 15.
Turns out that I was confused. So July 13th is rounds 1-3 and July 14th is rounds 4-20. That adds extra pressure on teams and caused me to redo this post and the next one.
So, here goes my Mock 3.0, Rounds 1-3.
So, the night before Day 1 of the draft is here. Lots of movement on rankings in the last few days which is not surprising as writers get more information and hear more rumors right before the draft, especially on guys who are moving in and out of the back end of the first round and the second round.
That being said, there is always some flux in each round based on guys being selected earlier than expected and guys, mostly HS players, falling as teams get skittish about signability and about the dangers of drafting HS players.
So, what I decided to do is to do this as if I had a big board for the draft and would just draft the highest player left on my board. Obviously, some of this is guesswork but I will post this tonight and, during day 1, I will have a blog post detailing who has been picked and what this did to my big board.
The biggest watchout on Day 1: If teams snap up college pitchers and outfielders and leave the HS hitters, pitchers and college infielders lite on power potential, the first day could get really ugly for Guardians in a lot of ways, especially on being able to acquire talent that would make the majors before Jose Ramirez's current contract expires.
And that is the big thing for me on the first 2 days of the draft: acquire college talent that will move quickly and be available for the 2028 season, if not 2027 (assuming there is no work stoppage). So, there, in a nutshell, is my draft strategy for days 1 and 2.
So, let's get started with my Day 1 draft board.
Slot #27
1. Tyler Bremner RHP - UC Santa Barbara
2. Jace Laviolette OF - Texas A&M
3. Andrew Fischer 1B/3B/OF - Oklahoma
4. Mason Neville CF - Oregon
5. Devin Taylor - LF - Indiana
6. Max Belyeu OF - Texas
7. Ethan Conrad - OF - Wake Forest
8. Patrick Forbes - RHP - Louisville
Rationale - My goal with this pick is to pick a college power hitter who will be a contributor before Ramirez's contract expires in 2028 (maybe Kwan's, too, if we extend him a QO) and before all of our young pitchers reach free agency/ Of course, if a plum like Bremner drops in my lap, I have to pick him, as he reminds me so much of Shane Beiber. Aside from that, this pick will be reserved for a good college power hitter. Early in the year it appeared that Laviolette might slide to this slot due to poor early performance by these two players. Now it looks less likely. Andrew Fischer has been my pick for this slot since my Mock 1.0. He has the best combination of power and hit tool for a college player who will be left at this point of the draft. If he is gone Mason Neville would be a good fallback position as he has plus power and the, likely, the ability to stay in CF. I don't believe Devin Taylor will still be there but, due to his poor defense and arm, I put him below Neville. More appealing is Max Belyeu who has less power than Neville but a stronger arm. If I had to choose between Conrad and Forbes that would be a hard pick as Conrad doesn't have th power I want and Forbes doesn't have the command. Originally I looked at Caden Bodine if Fischer was not available but his scout grades did not match his limited production this year and his tools are similar to Ingle so I have eliminated him from consideration. In any case, there are a lot of guys to pick from here who are all very similar in tools. For me, it is between Fischer and Neville and I can make a case for each.
Slot #64
1. AJ Russell RHP - Tennessee
2. Joseph Dzierwa LHP Michigan State
3. Marcus Phillips, RHP, Tennessee
4. Casey Shores RHP LSU
5. Cade Obermueller LHP Iowa
6. Michael Lombardi RHP Tulane
Rationale - Obviously this can change depending on any surprises between our picks at #27 and #64. But, assuming that everything goes pretty much as it is laid out in rankings & with our pick at #27, I am clearly looking for a college pitcher here. To help with the chances of getting Russell I have flipflopped him and Dzierwa. In reality, Russell, and his potentially 80 grade fastball, could be gone before this slot and there is only one team picking between our #64 and #66 picks so it is more a ceremonial honor than anything real. Dzierwa is the type of guy the Guardians like, with 55 control, a great changeup and what looks like the ability to add more mph to his fastball. Think Parker Messick but with a slightly better fastball at the time he is drafted. If Dzierwa and Russel are gone then we go down the list although I think Phillips and Obermueller will be gone before this pick and Obermueller is the dreaded short pitcher.
Slot #66
1. Joseph Dzierwa LHP Michigan St.
2. Marcus Phillips RHP Tennesse
3. Michael Lombardi RHP Tulane
4. James Ellwanger RHP Dallas Baptist
5. Cade Obermueller LHP Iowa
Rationale - Lots of pressure on my draft strategy to take a college power hitter here but, instead, I am looking for another college pitcher. As most of the remaining very talented college power hitters left will be 1B/DH types, I went college pitcher. Dzierwa has polish and Phillips, Lombari and Ellwanger have warts on their control and Obermueller is a short college pitcher. Stll, from this group, I would get a good college pitcher who will not be that far away from the major leagues...compared to a HS player available at this slot who would, even if they DO make the majors, would do so after Jose's current contract expires.
Slot #70
1. Gavin Turley OF Oregon State
2. James Quinn-Irons OF George Mason
3. Ethan Petry OF/1B South Carolina
4. Jared Jones 1B LSU
5. Taitn Gray C/OF HS
6. Herny Ford OF/1B Virginia
Rationale - Turley has maybe the best power in the draft left at this point. He is also versatile in the OF, probably like Nolan Jones. Petry and Jones are power only guys but I am looking for power. Quinn-Irons is a late riser who wasn't in the top 150 draft prospects until the combine and now is predicted to go as high as 75. I still want Quinn-Irons as he he can play center, steal a base and has 55/60 grade power. Gray has the best HS power in the draft and if I can't get any of the three above him, Gray, who will take longer to develop and comes with a higher risk as a HS hitter, will be too good to pass up. Henry Ford, a little too much hit over power, will be my fallback position as I think he should be available and maybe can regain his lift with some pro coaching.
#101
1. Matt Barr, RHP - Niagara CC
2. James Quinn-Irons OF George Mason
2. Nolan Schubart OF Oklahoma State
3. Taitn Gray C/OF HS
4. Sean Youngerman - RHP - Oklahoma State
5. Jared Jones - 1B - LSU
Rationale - Barr's stock was good but took a real jump up with his spin rate at the draft combine. He should probably be there at 101 and as I said in my Mock 2.0, I want this guy. He may be a real bust and this is very unlike the Guardians to draft a JUCO guy this high but it's not like he is a nobody, having been on draft boards all spring. If I don't get Barr then I revert back to my original plan of getting college power bats, taking fast risers James Quinn-Irons or Nolan Schubart. If someone takes an early flyer on Schubart and Quinn-Irons and Gray is not available, than I revert back to my 'safe' pick from Mock 1.0, Youngerman who is a classic Guardians' pitching prospect, having excellent control. Taking Youngerman here means that I will want to have a significant high risk/high reward pitcher later. If I get Barr then I want some safe picks later. Taking Schubart means that I likely will be all college pitchers through at least round 9.
So, more tomorrow after I digest what happened today and have a chance to look at who is still left after the dust from today settles, I'll provide my Day 2 mock in the same format as I used above for Day 1 picks.
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