Major League Service Time
Agents loooooooooooove for their clients to start earning it.
Players loooooooooooove to start earning it because their salaries go from $14,000 or so a year to allmost half a million dollars, minimum.
Teams haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaate to start that service time clock because it means that arbitration and, after that, free agency, gets closer. So teams guard that service time, measuring it to the last iota, trying to wring as much cheap baseball out of players who are playing not only for their current salary but for that big payday down the road. If you can make the stick a little longer that has the carrot on it, the better it is for the teams.
So, teams try to hold players down in the minors even though they may be ready for their first shot at the majors IF that team feels there is an advantage to it. And, guess what? That REALLY ticks off these players and their agents and creates a stigma on the organization that does effect the system from top to bottom. It's a dangerous game, but here is one reason teams play it.
You hear all the time about that window of opportunity to win that teams have: certain players are approaching free agency, your team is getting old, the teams in your division are getting stronger. They all are factors in teams thinking that the window is closing on them.
For some teams, like the Indians, that window is closed but not yet nailed shut. It's possible it can be opened back up.
For current Indians veterans who are almost out the door to other places: Sizemore, Hafner and others, they may not be around when the window opens up again.
The next generation, the future cornerstones of this team, are still around for a few years: Carmona, Masterson, Choo, Astrocab, Chris Perez, etc. and they will certainly be here when we become competitive.
The guys with some ML experience under their belt are getting ready for their second season: Talbot, Herrmann, LaPorta, Brantley, Santana, Donald. They will be around for a while and, hopefully, will serve as the biggest part of veteran leadership during the Indians' next run.
But what about the hot prospects: Chisenhall, Kipnis, Phelps, Weglarz, Pomeranz, White, De la Cruz, etc.? Those guys are banging on the door and there are prospects a year behind them waiting for their chance to contribute.
So, do you rush the Chisenhall group to the majors? Teams will tell you no. The Indians won't compete this year. With luck, they could compete next year but certainly in 2013. By then some of our cornerstones will be approaching free agency but we still will have most of them around.
What the Indians will likely do is try to get some of our young guys up starting in August. Why? If they come up too early and stay the whole season they will be eligible for arbitration after their second full season in the majors (Super 2 status). That leads to higher salaries and, if these players make the team out of spring training and stay in the majors the whole year, one less productive year the Indians get out of them. So the delicate balance is to not bring a guy up too soon but, at the same time, bring him up IN TIME to start his on-the-job training that will make him ready WHEN we are competitive.
Why am I mentioning this now?
I think some of what you are seeing in these questionable FA signings the Indians have been making (Chad Durbin, Orlando Cabrera and even Austin Kearns) is an attempt by the Indians to limit service time. Cabrera limits Phelps' service time and also Kipnis' and the domino effect of Donald at 3B will keep Chiz in the minors longer. Kearns keeps our outfielders like Weglarz down on the farm and even Jordan Brown is affected by that, if you think, as I do, that he still has some potential. Durbin limits the service time our rookie relievers will get.
Our excess starting pitching will keep White and Pomeranz from logging service time although both still need some polish before we should start their service clocks.
So maybe these questionable signings have two purposes: First to give some more veteran leadership and, second, to limit service time. Hey, I think it's not a good plan as it perpetuates this organization's history of dissing prospects (Brandon Phillips, Jeremy Guthrie, Brian Giles and others) for more veteran alternatives (Ramon Vazquez, Paul Byrd and David Justice) but if it extends the number of years that window is open, the next time it opens up, the better it works for me.
So, there you have it. My attempt at spin on why the Indians have ventured into this joke of signing borderline FAs who won't help when the window re-opens again. Let's hope I am right because, if they really believe these guys were signed to help the team win this year, they all need to stop smoking what they are smoking.
Saturday, February 26, 2011
Curly, Mo and Larry
And Chad Durbin makes 3.
The Indians HAD the following options for their bullpen:
Closer: Chris Perez
Long man: Josh Tomlin, Aaron Laffey
Setup men: Tony Sipp, Rafael Perez, Jensen Lewis, Joe Smith, Frank Hermann, Jess Todd, Vinnie Pestano, Josh Judy, Zach Putnam and Justin Germano
Even with an 8 man bullpen, that's 13 guys for those 8 slots and 11 guys for the 6 setup slots. And that's not even counting Joe Martinez who they will apparently develop as a starter.
Now, I will grant you that you, in hindsight, can make a case for Austin Kearns in that Trevor Crowe and Grady Sizemore are apparently not going to be ready for the start of the season due to surgery.
You can make a case for Orlando Cabrera is you agree that you don't want to risk everything on the chance that Luis Valbuena will hit .250 and play reasonable defense.
So I will grant the Indians a pass on these three moves. Still, we probably lost Josh Rodriguez to bring Cabrera's stability to the infield. That's too much.
But Durbin? I don't think that his signing makes sense at all unless you question whether Chris Perez is healthy or can go through a whole season as closer now that the league has had a chance to think about him a little more.
When you look at the Indians projected 25-man roster, it will probably contain Jayson Nix, Shelly Duncan, Orlando Cabrera, Austin Kearns and Durbin. That is 1/5 of the roster on AAAA guys or rent-a-veterans who have no future with this club and are just eating resources. While each is very jettisonable on a moment's notice as we don't have a lot of financial resources tied up in the lot of them, 1/5 of a 90+ loss team's opening day roster being these types of players would insinuate that our farm system at the upper levels is weak at their positions. That is absolutely just the opposite which is why this roster distribution makes no sense at all. NONE.
If we are trying to compete I see it all the way. But c'mon! There is no way this team competes. Without Sizemore it is essentially the same level of talent as last year and we know how that turned out, even with our play in meaningless games at the end of the season.
If you are renting these guys for a few months just to give guys in the minors or important major leaguers time to get polished or heal, respectively, fine. It may also help to build these young guys into major leaguers by seeing how the game is played right.
Let's hope that's what it is. If they are doing this in spite of real prospects being ready or if they block those prospects because of the presence of these guys, then the three of them clearly become the three stooges to Shapiro/Antonetti's rendition of Laurel and Hardy.
The Indians HAD the following options for their bullpen:
Closer: Chris Perez
Long man: Josh Tomlin, Aaron Laffey
Setup men: Tony Sipp, Rafael Perez, Jensen Lewis, Joe Smith, Frank Hermann, Jess Todd, Vinnie Pestano, Josh Judy, Zach Putnam and Justin Germano
Even with an 8 man bullpen, that's 13 guys for those 8 slots and 11 guys for the 6 setup slots. And that's not even counting Joe Martinez who they will apparently develop as a starter.
Now, I will grant you that you, in hindsight, can make a case for Austin Kearns in that Trevor Crowe and Grady Sizemore are apparently not going to be ready for the start of the season due to surgery.
You can make a case for Orlando Cabrera is you agree that you don't want to risk everything on the chance that Luis Valbuena will hit .250 and play reasonable defense.
So I will grant the Indians a pass on these three moves. Still, we probably lost Josh Rodriguez to bring Cabrera's stability to the infield. That's too much.
But Durbin? I don't think that his signing makes sense at all unless you question whether Chris Perez is healthy or can go through a whole season as closer now that the league has had a chance to think about him a little more.
When you look at the Indians projected 25-man roster, it will probably contain Jayson Nix, Shelly Duncan, Orlando Cabrera, Austin Kearns and Durbin. That is 1/5 of the roster on AAAA guys or rent-a-veterans who have no future with this club and are just eating resources. While each is very jettisonable on a moment's notice as we don't have a lot of financial resources tied up in the lot of them, 1/5 of a 90+ loss team's opening day roster being these types of players would insinuate that our farm system at the upper levels is weak at their positions. That is absolutely just the opposite which is why this roster distribution makes no sense at all. NONE.
If we are trying to compete I see it all the way. But c'mon! There is no way this team competes. Without Sizemore it is essentially the same level of talent as last year and we know how that turned out, even with our play in meaningless games at the end of the season.
If you are renting these guys for a few months just to give guys in the minors or important major leaguers time to get polished or heal, respectively, fine. It may also help to build these young guys into major leaguers by seeing how the game is played right.
Let's hope that's what it is. If they are doing this in spite of real prospects being ready or if they block those prospects because of the presence of these guys, then the three of them clearly become the three stooges to Shapiro/Antonetti's rendition of Laurel and Hardy.
Saturday, February 19, 2011
2011 Draft - Ready for another college starting pitcher?
Imagine it's June and the Indians make their first round selection in the 2011 first-year player draft. The Indians' representative or the commissioner or whoever it will be this year says something like:
With the 8th pick of the first round the Cleveland Indians select _______, _HP, from the University of ________"
That is exactly what happened the last two years with Alex White (2009) and Drew Pomeranz (2010).
Well, it is likely to happen again and here is why:
1. The Indians are priming for another mini-dynasty and what they need right now from this draft is a solid guy who can contribute very soon after being drafted..
2. The strength of this draft, at the top, is college starting pitching and the position players, after Anthony Rendon, pale in comparison to those pitchers..
3. The Indians feel that they will be able to get an above slot talent at the 67th pick this year, very similar to what they got with LeVon Washington last year with the 55th pick. The reason is that there are so many teams with multiple picks before the Indians pick in the second round that there is a high likelihood that some teams will take signability picks whose talent may not equal their draft slot but whose bonus will be below slot or at slot. When you consider that the Rays have 11 picks in the first 75 selections, the Blue Jays 6 all of which are included in the record THIRTY extra picks before the second round even begins, a situation like this has historically added up to a number of lower talents drafted higher for the teams with multiple picks to save money. As I mentioned earlier the Rays will have to spend close to $10 million just to sign slot talent on their picks in the top two rounds.
All this adds up to the Indians having what essentially amounts to more like the 58th pick in this draft. That is, they are likely to get the 58th best player (or higher) on their board which we hope is of the order of talent of Washington.
I think the Indians will go this way in the draft:
1. College pitcher
2. HS position player
3. College postion player
4. College pitcher
5. College position player
After that, I hope it is Katie bar the door with the Indians doing a repeat of last year with the focus this time, again, on high-priced HS talent to prop up the lower levels of the farm system even more. It is, in fact, those levels that will fuel the end of the run once our young players start hitting free agency again. The only difference this year is that they need to find a way to get more HS pitchers on the order of TJ House and even Clayton Cook signed in those later rounds this year. I also think they need to go back to the well that got them guys like Josh Judy, Erik Stiller, Neil Wagner and Dallas Cawiezell. Although only Judy has worked out I see this as a very successful approach by the Indians. That is, use some later round picks on guys who project as solid 6th-7th inning guys in the majors if they reach their potential.
Now, who will that first round pitcher be?
My money right now is on Trevor Bauer from UCLA. He pitched tonight for the first time this spring:
http://www.uclabruins.com/sports/m-basebl/stats/2010-2011/ucla02.html
and he is in the second tier of college pitchers after Gerrit Cole, Matt Purke, Taylor Jungmann and Sonny Gray. Cole also pitches for UCLA which may or may not help Bauer fall to the Indians.
There is also the possibility that the Indians would take John Stilson who had sick K/IP numbers last year for Texas A&M doing a long man role striking out 114 batters in 79 innings. At a D-I school like A&M, that is pretty amazing.
Stilson pitched on Friday night against a weak LeMoyne team but was dominant:
http://www.aggieathletics.com/sports/m-basebl/stats/2010-2011/ta01-lm.html
There is also an outside chance that we could end up with Danny Hultzen (Virginia) or Matt Barnes (Connecticut). This is where the scouts come in but I would really we get Bauer or Stilson as Hultzen reminds me of Huff and Sowers (possibility of being a pitchability lefty) and I am just inherently frightened by pitchers from the Northeast, although I think Charlie Nagy was from Connecticut, wasn't he? From what I have read on Barnes I would say Nagy wouldn't be a bad comp but I still would like a warm-weather pitcher.
Hultzen dominated on Friday:
http://uabsports.cstv.com/sports/m-basebl/stats/2010-2011/uab-01.html
whereas Barnes did well on Saturday agaisnt Minnesota.
http://www.gophersports.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=38638&SPID=3298&DB_LANG=C&DB_OEM_ID=8400&ATCLID=205099602
So, there you have it. I predict the Indians will pick one of those four pitchers: Bauer, Stilson, Hultzen or Barnes. If Purke or Jungmann fall to the Indians and the above guys are snapped up instead, you gotta pop one of those two although the only reason they would fall would be due to bonus demands. That is why I hope it is one of the 4 above. I think they can be signed for slot which leaves us money for the later round flyer picks.
It's early so a lot can change but I see all 4 of those guys being there when Cleveland drafts and I see each of them being a safe pick for the Indians because, barring injury, each has a chance to be a solid ML starting pitcher, probaby a #2 upside with a #4-5 downside.
More on the draft later on.
With the 8th pick of the first round the Cleveland Indians select _______, _HP, from the University of ________"
That is exactly what happened the last two years with Alex White (2009) and Drew Pomeranz (2010).
Well, it is likely to happen again and here is why:
1. The Indians are priming for another mini-dynasty and what they need right now from this draft is a solid guy who can contribute very soon after being drafted..
2. The strength of this draft, at the top, is college starting pitching and the position players, after Anthony Rendon, pale in comparison to those pitchers..
3. The Indians feel that they will be able to get an above slot talent at the 67th pick this year, very similar to what they got with LeVon Washington last year with the 55th pick. The reason is that there are so many teams with multiple picks before the Indians pick in the second round that there is a high likelihood that some teams will take signability picks whose talent may not equal their draft slot but whose bonus will be below slot or at slot. When you consider that the Rays have 11 picks in the first 75 selections, the Blue Jays 6 all of which are included in the record THIRTY extra picks before the second round even begins, a situation like this has historically added up to a number of lower talents drafted higher for the teams with multiple picks to save money. As I mentioned earlier the Rays will have to spend close to $10 million just to sign slot talent on their picks in the top two rounds.
All this adds up to the Indians having what essentially amounts to more like the 58th pick in this draft. That is, they are likely to get the 58th best player (or higher) on their board which we hope is of the order of talent of Washington.
I think the Indians will go this way in the draft:
1. College pitcher
2. HS position player
3. College postion player
4. College pitcher
5. College position player
After that, I hope it is Katie bar the door with the Indians doing a repeat of last year with the focus this time, again, on high-priced HS talent to prop up the lower levels of the farm system even more. It is, in fact, those levels that will fuel the end of the run once our young players start hitting free agency again. The only difference this year is that they need to find a way to get more HS pitchers on the order of TJ House and even Clayton Cook signed in those later rounds this year. I also think they need to go back to the well that got them guys like Josh Judy, Erik Stiller, Neil Wagner and Dallas Cawiezell. Although only Judy has worked out I see this as a very successful approach by the Indians. That is, use some later round picks on guys who project as solid 6th-7th inning guys in the majors if they reach their potential.
Now, who will that first round pitcher be?
My money right now is on Trevor Bauer from UCLA. He pitched tonight for the first time this spring:
http://www.uclabruins.com/sports/m-basebl/stats/2010-2011/ucla02.html
and he is in the second tier of college pitchers after Gerrit Cole, Matt Purke, Taylor Jungmann and Sonny Gray. Cole also pitches for UCLA which may or may not help Bauer fall to the Indians.
There is also the possibility that the Indians would take John Stilson who had sick K/IP numbers last year for Texas A&M doing a long man role striking out 114 batters in 79 innings. At a D-I school like A&M, that is pretty amazing.
Stilson pitched on Friday night against a weak LeMoyne team but was dominant:
http://www.aggieathletics.com/sports/m-basebl/stats/2010-2011/ta01-lm.html
There is also an outside chance that we could end up with Danny Hultzen (Virginia) or Matt Barnes (Connecticut). This is where the scouts come in but I would really we get Bauer or Stilson as Hultzen reminds me of Huff and Sowers (possibility of being a pitchability lefty) and I am just inherently frightened by pitchers from the Northeast, although I think Charlie Nagy was from Connecticut, wasn't he? From what I have read on Barnes I would say Nagy wouldn't be a bad comp but I still would like a warm-weather pitcher.
Hultzen dominated on Friday:
http://uabsports.cstv.com/sports/m-basebl/stats/2010-2011/uab-01.html
whereas Barnes did well on Saturday agaisnt Minnesota.
http://www.gophersports.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=38638&SPID=3298&DB_LANG=C&DB_OEM_ID=8400&ATCLID=205099602
So, there you have it. I predict the Indians will pick one of those four pitchers: Bauer, Stilson, Hultzen or Barnes. If Purke or Jungmann fall to the Indians and the above guys are snapped up instead, you gotta pop one of those two although the only reason they would fall would be due to bonus demands. That is why I hope it is one of the 4 above. I think they can be signed for slot which leaves us money for the later round flyer picks.
It's early so a lot can change but I see all 4 of those guys being there when Cleveland drafts and I see each of them being a safe pick for the Indians because, barring injury, each has a chance to be a solid ML starting pitcher, probaby a #2 upside with a #4-5 downside.
More on the draft later on.
Thursday, February 10, 2011
OCab makes 0 Sense
Is there someone hurt that we don't know about? This FO is doing some unexplainable things. You dump Carlos Rivero off the roster and he is picked up IMMEDIATELY. You expose Josh Rodriguez to the Rule 5 and he is the first guy picked. Then you bring back Jayson Nix and you sign Orlando Cabrera. Really?
Fans, welcome to Major League IV, the barfquel.
Talk about Julio Franco part deux. Hell, at least Franco could hit when we were playing him at a position he couldn't play.
Unless someone is really hurt and we don't know about it, there is no reason for a move like this. Waste of money, waste of time.
And what the hell does this mean about Adam Everett.
It does give us yet another opportunity to dump Shelley Duncan or Jayson Nix off the roster, though.
What is wrong with this FO? I mean, really. This has got to be the most stupid off-season in Indians' history: let prospects go for nothing. Bring in more worthless (to a 95 loss team in the making) veterans. This is becoming the KC Royals East. Amazing!
Finally the Indians have a chance to take back the city from the Browns and the Cavs and they pull crap like this that really does nothing to advance the rebuild of this franchise and, in fact, goes the opposite direction.
You can spin it how you want but we are losing close to 100 games this year and teams with that destiny play Josh Rodriguez....not sign Orlando Cabrera and keep Jayson Nix on the roster.
Fans, welcome to Major League IV, the barfquel.
Talk about Julio Franco part deux. Hell, at least Franco could hit when we were playing him at a position he couldn't play.
Unless someone is really hurt and we don't know about it, there is no reason for a move like this. Waste of money, waste of time.
And what the hell does this mean about Adam Everett.
It does give us yet another opportunity to dump Shelley Duncan or Jayson Nix off the roster, though.
What is wrong with this FO? I mean, really. This has got to be the most stupid off-season in Indians' history: let prospects go for nothing. Bring in more worthless (to a 95 loss team in the making) veterans. This is becoming the KC Royals East. Amazing!
Finally the Indians have a chance to take back the city from the Browns and the Cavs and they pull crap like this that really does nothing to advance the rebuild of this franchise and, in fact, goes the opposite direction.
You can spin it how you want but we are losing close to 100 games this year and teams with that destiny play Josh Rodriguez....not sign Orlando Cabrera and keep Jayson Nix on the roster.
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
Indians Top 100 prospects update made!
I have now received my BA prospect handbook. Here are a few updates in perusing through it.
1. Respecting BA's rights, I have generally updated my top 100 prospects list as to where guys fell in the BA top 30 for the Indians. Out of the 30 players here are the stats:
1. 25 of my top 30 fell in BA's top 31, with 11 being within two places of where BA ranked them. I note that this is easy to do in the top7 or so as most rankings should have those very similar, although not necessarily in the exact order.
2. Most interesting rankings:
Tampa Bay's #31: Isaias Velasquez OF - This is the guy the Indians traded for Juan Salas. You know what I think about trading prospects for AAAA guys. Arrrrgh. Salas was 30 when we traded for him...his last year in organized baseball. BTW, Tampa Bay had the #3 ranked organization.
The Indians ranked 7th overall among organizations
Lonnie Chisenhall's composite ranking from BA was significant higher than MLB's prospect ranking (36) for him. Jason Kipnis' was ranked at the end of the top 50 in two of the three rankings for BA.
1. Respecting BA's rights, I have generally updated my top 100 prospects list as to where guys fell in the BA top 30 for the Indians. Out of the 30 players here are the stats:
1. 25 of my top 30 fell in BA's top 31, with 11 being within two places of where BA ranked them. I note that this is easy to do in the top7 or so as most rankings should have those very similar, although not necessarily in the exact order.
2. Most interesting rankings:
Tampa Bay's #31: Isaias Velasquez OF - This is the guy the Indians traded for Juan Salas. You know what I think about trading prospects for AAAA guys. Arrrrgh. Salas was 30 when we traded for him...his last year in organized baseball. BTW, Tampa Bay had the #3 ranked organization.
The Indians ranked 7th overall among organizations
Lonnie Chisenhall's composite ranking from BA was significant higher than MLB's prospect ranking (36) for him. Jason Kipnis' was ranked at the end of the top 50 in two of the three rankings for BA.
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