Mid-Season Prospect List Update and Analysis

6/28/11

OK, let's look back on the top 100 prospect list I did back in February and updated at the beginning of April.    Here is my updated top 50 list with previous rankings in parentheses and not considering that some of these guys may not qualify as rookies now, although they did when the season started.  Note that I have not included 2011 draftees in this list as it is just an update of a list generated before this draft.  This system needs more top-end talent.  Really, after Washington, there isn’t any.  Maybe Wolters will turn into one but most of the guys after Washington are lower-type upside guys.  Some sleepers, some guys who can burst onto the scene, but not many top-end guys like the top 4. 

1. Jason Kipnis (1) – ready for a big league callup and projects, offensively, better for  his position than Chisenhall does.
2. Lonnie Chisenhall (3) – Not ready for the big leagues but he is there 
3. Drew Pomeranz (2) - Control still lacking, promotion to Akron will be telling
4. Alex White (4) – Lack of star depth allows an injured guy to be #4 on this list
5. Vinnie Pestano (13) – Pre-season ranking by me was highest by any Indians writer or blogger… by far.  He is showing why.
6. LaVon Washington (6) – Hitting for average is big stumbling block so far.  All else looks positive.
7. Scott Barnes (39) - Like him more and more every time out. 
8. Nick Hagadone (8) - Struggles at AAA aside, he can pitch
9. Tony Wolters (21) -  Performance against older players starting to make me a believer that he can hit. 
10. Zach McAllister (32) - Performance speaks volumes and McAllister keeps getting better and better and his fastball keeps improving. 
11.  Cord Phelps (10) - Solid guy but 5 errors already in the majors is a real watchout here.  Without defense he is just Ryan Garko/Ben Francisco part deux, a guy with skills but without a true position that his bat and glove could profile him at.
12. Nick Weglarz (7) – Prospect star fading but still some time left this year to brighten it up.
13. Austin Adams (26) – Quietly having good year after being aggressively pushed up to AA by Indians.  A real sleeper ,was a two-way player in college that some scouts  liked better as a SS.
14. Josh Judy (15) –  He is ready to contribute and  has stuff  to be a good 6^th-7^th inning guy right now.
15. Zach Putnam  (20)– See Judy.
16. Juan Diaz (19) – Intriguing power is still there and he is hitting for average a little better, too.
17. Robbie Aviles (18)
18. Hector Rondon (16)
19. Chun Chen (27) – Solid guy at a premium position
20. Jesus Aguilar (68) – Potential turning into performance.  It’s low A, which can really be deceiving, but this guy is showing more power this year.  While I don’t think he will get to Russell Branyan’s franchise record of 40 HRs, he might get close if he isn’t promoted.
21. Alex Lavisky (35) – Demotion aside, having seen him play, the power is for real and he catches a good game.
22. Clayton Cook (43) – Solid, though not spectacular
23. Giovanny Soto (36) – See Clayton Cook.
24. Jason Knapp ((6) – Who knows what the future holds for this guy?
25. Ezequiel  Carrera (37) – Solid backup OFer
26. Chen Lee (56) – After seeing him leave the ball up at AAA and not being able to stay on top of his slider, I am not sold on him yet.  Yes, he eats up poor hitters but better hitters may dominate him, laying off the stuff in the dirt.  Time at AAA will tell.
27. Michael Goodnight (47) – Performance equals ranking in this case.  May have figured out what he needs to do to be successful and, in so doing, reach the potential he had in HS.
28. Jairo Kelly (NR) – An oversight on my part, not ranking him earlier,, he is showing well in Arizona.
29. Elvis Araujo (60) – Appears healthy and has always had the size and stuff
30. Felix Sterling (40)
31. Mike Rayl (88) – Performance equals ranking
32. Kelvin De la Cruz (25) – Fading but still young
33. Alexander Perez (31)
34. Rob Bryson (17) – Late start still has question marks about his health
35. Jordan Henry (22) – Absolute lack of power hurts him in this ranking.  Geez!
36. Kyle Blair (9) – Biggest disappointment in the Indians’ system  this year.  Even starting at low A hasn’t helped.  A real disaster right now as, when I saw him pitch, he was leaving EVERYTHING up in the zone.
37. Bryce Stowell (12) – Control struggles and injury (?!?) really hurt him although, in a heartbeat, he could shoot up this list.  Most movement potential of any guy on this list…but throwing 101 mph will do that for you.
38. Joe Gardner (14) – Struggles this year may indicate that his stuff doesn’t play well as a starter in upper professional levels.  A move to the bullpen, where he was projected to end up when he was in college, may be in the offing.
39. Carlos Moncrief  (86) – Intriguing power/speed/walk rate combo in a strong-armed OFer.  To me, he has Jonathon van Every potential. Has to hit for average, however, if he is to be successful.
40. Tim Fedroff (54) – maybe he has finally found his swagger and his game again.
41. Alex Monsalve (91) – Sixteen passed balls at low A tell a lot.  He can hit, though.
42. Tyler Holt (23) – See Jordan Henry
43. Tyler Sturdevant (51)
44. Roberto Perez (50)
45. Adam Miller (41)
46. Jared Goedert (29)
47. Cole Cook (30)
48. TJ House (24) – Struggles at high A in light of solid performances by Clayton Cook and Giovanny Soto make his numbers in a pitchers’ park in a pitchers’ league look even more suspect.
49. Cory Burns (52)
50. Bo Greenwell (57)

Dropped out of top 50: Jordan Brown (12, traded), Paulo Espino (29), Corey Kluber (33), Matt McBride (34), Jess Todd (38, traded), Matt Packer (42), TJ McFarland (44),  Chris Jones (45), Eric Berger (46), Tony Dischler (48), Marty Popham (49).

In summary:  Decent progress by the prospects I ranked.  39 of the 50 guys I ranked in the top 50 at the beginning of the season are still there.  Of the 11 that have fallen out, 6 were ranked earlier in the 40s and have only dropped incrementally to the 50s. Only one guy, Jairo Kelly, in the top 50 now who wasn’t in the top 100 in April and that was an oversight on my part.  So, my pre-season rankings look strong with my man-love for Jordan Brown and, to some extent, Matt McBride, being the only glitches and my callout of Vinnie Pestano as a quality prospect being my biggest standout pick. But enough about me……J.

Biggest surprise so far: Jesus Aguilar

Biggest disappointment so far: Kyle Blair

Biggest potential for a strong second half: Chun Chen, Scott Barnes, Kelvin De la Cruz, Alex Lavisky, Bryce Stowell, TJ McFarland (note that after I wrote this he pitched a 1-hitter for 6 innings)..

First salvo fired!!!

Adam Everett designated for assignment, Lonnie Chisenhall recalled.

I don't know what this means about Chisenhall and being a Super 2 guy down the road but this is the way the Cleveland Indians should 'go for it'.  Dump the AAAA guys and bring up real prospects from AAA.

I didn't want him up until after Aug. 1st to hopefully avoid the Super 2 thing but what the hey!  He's already 2-3 tonight with an RBI.  Isn't that as many RBI as Hanrahan had in the last month?

Now to get Kipnis up here and dump Orlando Cabrera!  Then.....but I am getting ahead of myself.

Let's enjoy Chisenhall while we can...and hope for a good return for OCab and a quick arrival of Kipnis.

BTW, Joe Smith dealing.  Now is the time to trade him.  He is very valuable to a team that knows it is going to be contending and so is at his highest value since we traded for him.  Let's see if we can package Joe Smith, OCab and Everett together and get a decent prospect back.

Random thoughts 6/26

Well, it's another  Sunday.  Let's see what we have:

• NOTE: Just got done watching the Indians play.  They are probably not as dead as they are acting right now but, MAN, are they acting like they have no idea what they are doing.  Saw Saturday's game and Sunday's game and all I can say is:
• Anyone who said Shelly Duncan is not a AAAA player really doesn't know much about baseball.  Trade the bum now (change of opinion since Friday, but I have actually seen him play.
• Grady Sizemore is really not doing well.  Bobby Valentine was carving him up.  Can't hit an inside fastball, can't hit the ball away.  Sizemore looks totally clueless.  He and Choo are costing themselves a lot of money next year.
• Carlos Santana is just plain stinking it up.  He has totally lost it as a hitter.  Maybe that is one of the reasons that Nunnally got fired.
• Manny Acta should been able to find a way to steal one of these games and he didn't.  Good managers find a way.
• Trade Joe Smith now.  The guy is worthless to a rebuilding team, just like I said he was when we traded for the righty specialist.  Trade Orlando Cabrera, too, but I have said that in the past.  
• The way the announcers were talking, no way Carmona is worth anything right now.  They wer picking his delivery apart and, from Tim Belcher's lack of success with Carmona, he could be the next one fired.  Even though Carmona had good numbers tonight it was against the worst hitting team in baseball.  A better team would have hammered him.  If we can find someone to take him off our hands and get a good return, he should be gone now. 

• Terry Pluto says to stop using retreads. Great, where was he when the Indians were signing guys like this over the past 3-4 years?  I love Pluto as a writer but he is supportive of the FO when they do something stupid and then tends to criticize them when those moves are exposed as bad down the road.

• Look at Aaron Laffey's stats with Seattle and look at Chad Durbin's stats here.  Despite some FO supportive forumites trying to spin obscure statistics to make Durbin look better than Laffey, Laffey is having a great year and Durbin is sucking wind just like was predicted here.  And to think we got rid of Laffey to make room on the 40-man for Durin.  Pathetic move at the time and more pathetic now.  BTW, the 'player' we got for Laffey, Matt Lawson, recently retired.  Classic!!!!!!!!!!!

• The Indians released Jensen Lewis.  Can't say I am surprised as, in my opinion, he was done in his own mind with this organization.  I think Mr. Lewis needs to do a little soul-searching and I think he will.  He has the stuff to pitch in the big leagues and a history of some success but I also think that he felt a sense of entitlement that his performance didn't support.  He went to Columbus and stunk it up due, in my opinion, to him feeling he belonged in the majors.  Now he gets his chance to prove that Cleveland was wrong but the only way to do that is for him to get his head out of his rear end.  Jensen Lewis stands about an 80% chance of making the Indians look stupid for releasing him but, let's face it.  Whatever positive performance he has elsewhere will be due to him playing in another organization.  When you are as down on the Indians decision makers as I think Lewis is, no way can you fault the Indians for this one, even if Lewis becomes an all-star.  The Indians did their due diligence on this one and it was time to cut ties with Jensen Lewis.

• It appears the Indians signed their 3rd and 4th round picks to slightly below slot bonuses.  Duh!  When you overdraft guys like Sisco (1-2 round overdraft) and Lowery (2-3 round overdraft), getting them to sign for slot or a little below is mandatory.  Does mesh with my opinion that the Indians were looking for ways to save money after their first two picks and drafted mostly low cost guys after that.  Not the way a franchise like the Indians should operate.  

• Looking at the Indians' stats Michael Brantley is performing at about the highest level I could expect.  Note that his walk rate is not that great, especially for a leadoff man and he is not stealing bases but he has shown a little power.  While I think this is an aberration it is in there somewhere.  Now he just needs to act more like a leadoff man and become more than a mediocre defender (the rag arm will not go away, but then Grady Sizemore has a rag arm, too).    Still, watching him play, makes me think that he is most likely the best player by far we got in the CC Sabathia trade and that's not a good thing.

• The Indians are promoting minor league guys at their usual pace.  I have changed my mind on this and think that it is a good thing.  The Alex White fiasco shows me that promoting guys too soon can result in injury.  We all want to open the Christmas presents early but this is not the time.  Still, if a guy is performing well after the first half of the season he should be promoted.

• Let's look back on the Indians' deadline deals last year, rating them in order of how good they were based on what we gave up:

1. Austin Kearns for Zach McAllister - This was a great deal but don't kid yourselves, folks.  This was really Kerry Wood and Austin Kearns for McAllister.  The issue was that there was no PTBNL in the Wood deal so the only way to make this happen was to make McAllister the PTBNL where one was owed...in the Kearns deal.

2. Branyan for Carrera and Juan Diaz - Haven't seen Diaz play in person but his stats, for a SS, are eye-popping, at least in terms of power.    He reminds me of, on the downside, Alvaro Espinosa.  What is his upside?  I don't know, but I can only dream and those dreams keep getting bigger the higher his BA and the better his OBP.  Carrera is what he is but it ain't bad as he has good leadoff skills and a strong arm and strong defense in the middle of the OF.

3. Peralta for Soto - I think we sold low here but, for the FO, I think this was addition by subtraction.  Jhonny being Jhonny did not play as well as Manny being Manny simply because Peralta could not live up to his early career success.  Still, a ML SS who can hit like Peralta and keep his head above water with the glove is worth substantially more than a guy not even a "B" prospect.  Not that Soto doesn't have potential but face it, folks, he is a "C" prospect. 

4. Westbrook for Kluber - This deal stunk at the time as Kluber wasn't nearly as good as his stats looked.  Remember, too, that we had to throw in money so this wasn't even good as a salary dump, something, BTW, that small market teams can't afford to do.  This deal will go down as one of the Indians' worst deadline deals as they got nothing back for a solid #3 starter in the big leagues.  Nothing. 

So, in summary, we got maybe a backup outfielder and couple of "C" prospects and a clunker in Kluber for a number of serviceable MLers.  If you are very FO supportive you could argue that these guys weren't worth very much.  However, if you are the GM of a small market team you have to do better than this, especially since trading two Cy Young pitchers brought you very little back and is really damaging this franchise and will for years to come.

The sky is falling, the sky is falling! Quick, trade somebody.

With Choo out maybe until the September stretch run and LaPorta out, this team which, predictably, has offensive struggles and not enough starting pitching to make up for it, needs something.

Here is what they need: They need to start treating this season like they are in last place!

WHAT!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!

Yes, that's right, start trading veterans and start in the next two weeks. 

How can I say that when they are in first place at the latest date in the year since 2007?  First, look at who we are:

What type of franchise do we have?  SMALL MARKET

What type of budget do we have: SMALL BUDGET

What type of fans do we have: EITHER NON-EXISTENT OR ULTRA-FAIR WEATHER

and, finally,

What chance do we have to win this division: ONLY IF EVERY OTHER TEAM IN THIS DIVISION IS UNDER .500.  The Indians are currently 10-19 in their last 29 games and, if you take away the 3 game sweep of the Pirates, they are 7-19. 

So, we just give up?  No, absolutely the opposite.   But we do dump veterans and give you players a chance.  The problem is, there aren't that many young players who are ready.  So we take the leap and hope for a soft landing.

1. We trade Orlando Cabrera and Adam Everett and bring up Jason Kipnis and Luis Valbuena.  Yes, this is a downgrade but it gives us a chance to see Kipnis play second with Valbuena as insurance.  We also start working out Cord Phelps in LF and play him a little at 3B.  Valbuena can be given a shot at 3B, too.

2. We trade Jack Hanrahan and Austin Kearns.  Yeah, we won't get much for either but it is time that clear space for the young guys.  Plus, Donald appears to be heating it up at AAA.  Maybe in a week or so he is ready!

3.  Right now we keep Shelly Duncan and Travis Buck.  The market for Duncan will stay as strong as the market for Shelly Duncan can ever be because of his ability to pinch hit.  We will be able to rid ourselves of Duncan once LaPorta comes back and shows he is healthy.  Buck I am less thrilled with but I would like to keep him around just for a little while.  Eventually I want to replace these two guys with Jerad Head and Ezequiel Carrera.  Nick Johnson?  Yeah, well, he isn't hitting a lick at AAA and he can stay there until he asks for his release or until we trade him.

4. Release or trade Chad Durbin and trade Joe Smith.  The former is no loss but Joe Smith might bring us something in trade.  Bring up Judy, bring up Putnam, bring up (or keep up) Hermann.  Time to see if some of the young guys can help out and bring fresh arms and fresh looks that may buoy this bullpen up until September.  These guys have good stuff but the league doesn't have a book on them yet.  This is an advantage to us.

5. Keep Lonnie Chisenhall in the minors until August 1st.

6. Keep the starting rotation as is through July 30th.  Either these guys are too young or have too little present value to trade AND they are all good enough to start for this team.  Still, if we get a great offer for ANY of these guys, including Tomlin, we trade them now.  McAllister and Gomez are knocking on the door and Barnes is showing that he can be a viable starting option, as well.  If we can clear Talbot and Carmona off the books and get something good back for them I would be inclined to do that. Unfortunately, that would take a miracle but we have seen, in June and July, miracles DO happen (see Choo and Cabrera trades a few years back and Kearns trade last year).

Bottom line: We CAN and SHOULD be sellers from now until August 1st.  We should NOT be buyers this year or in ANY year, IMHO.  We should be a franchis based on selling vets instead of acquiring them for a stretch run.  That's what you do in small markets.

Besides, the young guys we have in AAA will help (I think McAllister would give us a better chance to win every night than Carmona right now) and, if guys like Hagadone can get it together, maybe more than just help.    We CAN compete by trading these fringe MLers/AAAA players/grizzled veterans and plug in rookies in their spots.  We can probably compete better than we are right now, for that matter.

Just my unconventional thinking.

2011 Post Draft Mock Draft

I do this most years and, now that I have my own blog I want to start it as a yearly tradition.  The goal is to do a draft as I would have liked to have seen it done based on the players available at the time.  I don't think a lot about positions but I do make sure I sprinkle in some college seniors.  I also go only 20 rounds as it gets a little crazy and very labor intensive after that.  You know who the Indians drafted, now here is who I think they SHOULD have drafted, with comments and BA rank.

1. Matt Barnes, RHP, Connecticutt - I had to go safe with this pick.  He's not Lindor but he's good (13)
2. Daniel Norris, LHP, Tennessee HS - OK, more of a flyer than Dillon Howard but more of a talent.  If I get that second round pick back next year, I want to do so by missing out on Norris.(16)
3. B.A. Vollmuth, 3B/SS Southern Mississippi (63) - wanted to inject some college hitting
4. Noe Ramirz, RHP, Cal State Fullerton (93) - Solid starting pitcher who performs
5. Matt Price, RH Closer, Georgia Tech (141) - College closer I have been wanting
6. Derek Fisher, OF, PA HS (66) - I wanted to inject some athleticism into my draft
7. Cody Kukuk, LHP, Kansas HS (154) - OK, at some point I will be burned here but, with Fisher and Norris, Kukuk makes my third way over slot bonus guy and that's all that I want here.
8. Kyle Winkler, RHP, Texas (43) - Here's my annual hurt pitcher.  Sign him and rehibilitate him.
9. Dusty Robinson, OF, Fresno State (115) - Good value at this point and more athleticism for this draft
10. Nick Rickles, C, Stetson (194) - We need some catching in this draft
11. Ben Alsup, RHP, LSU - My first college senior
12. Mike McGee, OF, Florida State - My second college senior
13. Zach McPhee, 2B, Arizona State - The first time the Indians' pick and my pick have matched
14. Chad Zurcher, 2B, Memphis - Leading hitter in NCAA division I, let's give this college senior a shot
15. Jeff Schaus, OF, LSU - A college senior re-draft for the Indians
16. Carlos Rodon, LHP, NC HS (198) - Insert another flyer or backup pick if Norris doesn't sign
17. Matt Stites, RHP, Missouri - A short RH relief college senior but with good stuff
18. Andrew Triggs, RHP, USC - Another re-draft but a guy I like especially this low
19. Pete Lavin, OF, San Francisco - Another solid college senior guy
20. Dillon Peters, LHP, IN HS (104) - My second pick in agreement with the Indians and my last flyer in my post draft mock draft.

So, there you have it. In 20 rounds I picked 12 BA top 200 guys, one college junior and 7 college seniros.  I have 12 pitchers, 1 catcher, 5 outfielders and only 3 infielders.

Thus, in the next 30 rounds I need to draft some organizational depth at catcher and infielder and, of course, you can never have too many pitchers.  So, let's say that we draft the way the Indians do the rest of the draft and use their picks for rounds 21-50.  So there you have my mock draft. 

21	638	Cody Elliott	OF	Ball State	Ind.
22	668	Matthew Reckling	RHP	Rice	Texas
23	698	Cody Allen	RHP	High Point	N.C.
24	728	Taylor Sparks (131)	3B	St. John Bosco HS, Bellflower, Calif.	Calif.
25	758	Kevin Kramer	SS	Turlock (Calif.) HS	Calif.
26	788	Austin Diemer	OF	Rocklin (Calif.) HS	Calif.
27	818	Evan Frazar	SS	Galveston (Texas) JC	Texas
28	848	Tyler Nurdin	LHP	Temple (Texas) JC	Texas
29	878	Jared Ruxer	RHP	Lawrence Central HS, Indianapolis	Ind.
30	908	John Polonius	SS	Genesee (N.Y.) CC	N.Y.
31	938	Michael Roth	LHP	South Carolina	S.C.
32	968	Cole Pitts	RHP	Colquitt County HS, Moultrie, Ga.	Ga.
33	998	Jack Wagoner	RHP	Florida Gulf Coast	Fla.
34	1028	Tyler Maloof	RHP	Georgia	Ga.
35	1058	Mason Radeke	RHP	Cal Poly	Calif.
36	1088	Abel Guerrero	LHP	Galveston (N.Y.) JC	N.Y.
37	1118	Taylor Starr	RHP	Oregon State	Ore.
38	1148	Yhoxian Medina	SS	Southeastern (Iowa) CC	Iowa
39	1178	John Barr	OF	Virginia	Va.
40	1208	Matt Eureste	SS	St. Pius X HS, Houston	Texas
41	1238	Brian Rulz	OF	Lincoln West HS, Cleveland	Ohio
42	1268	KC Serna	SS	Oregon	Ore.
43	1298	Geoff Davenport	LHP	Arkansas	Ark.
44	1328	Adam Griffin	RHP	Forsyth Country Day HS, Lewisville, N.C.	N.C.
45	1358	Will Jamison	OF	Evangelical Christian HS, Cordova, Tenn.	Tenn.
46	1388	Robert Nixon	RHP	Adelphi (N.Y.)	N.Y.
47	1418	Corey Embree	OF	Moberly (Mo.) HS	Mo.
48	1448	Blaine O'Brien	RHP	Keystone (Pa.)	Pa.
49	1478	Brian Hansen	OF	St. Cloud State (Minn.)	Minn.
50	1508	Tyler Baker	C	Shawnee Heights HS, Tecumseh, Kan.	Kan

Let's put this in the time vault and look at it again in 3 years. 

Post draft mock vs real draft from 2008

As I said I will be posting my post draft mock draft tomorrow night.  But as a teaser check out my 2008 mock draft done right after that draft:

(BA ranking at time of draft) Real Draft (BA top 20ranking with Indians now)   
(74)Chisenhall (1)
(126)Haley (NR)
(NR)Phelps (20 - in majors)
(NR)Roberts (Released)
(50)Putnam (17)
(NR)Tice (NR)
(NR)Fedroff (NR)
(NR)Berger (NR)
(NR)Clayton Cook (NR)
(NR)Webb (NR)
(NR)Langwell (NR)

Mock draft (BA top 20 ranking with current team)
(23)Conor Gillaspie (17)
(15)Tim Melville (14)
(134)Brandon Crawford (6 - in majors now)
(50)Putnam (17)
(NR)Josh Satin (NR)
(90)Eric Thames (12)
(NR)Cody Overbeck (NR)
(NR)Andy Dirks (11)
(155)DJ Mitchell (18)
(NR)Michael Stutes (NR)
(NR)Rob Musgrave (NR)

So, besides the obvious goof on my part with Gillaspie and Chisenhall that I have since said I messed up on, we have the Indians drafting 3 guys in BA's top 200 in 11 rounds and coming up with 3 guys in their top 30 three years later, although one was Phelps who wasn't ranked then but is now and one was Haley, who was ranked then but not now..

In my mock draft I drafted 6 guys in BA's top 200 and ended up with all them being in their organization's top 20 prospects.  I also added 1 guy who wasn't ranked in the top 200 at draft time who ended up in the organization's top 20.

So, I obviously messed up on Chisenhall but I didn't want to take the risk of his criminal past coming back.  Aside from that I outdrafted the Indians by picking what I thought were appropriate guys from BA's top 200.  I did this the next day after the draft so I didn't know whether these guys would sign.  I think i fyou add up the bonuses of the guys I drafted it comes up to being about $1 million cheaper or something like that.

So, for less money I got more prospects, although I didn't get Chisenhall. 

How did I do this?  The same way the Indians had the best draft on paper last year: draft more top prospects and sign them.

One year does not make an arugment but you see the point.  When you add our 2010 draft, you see where I am going.

BTW, the Indians in 2008 took the fewest BA top 200 guys of any team (4).  The other one not on the list above was TJ House.  Boston took 13 BA top 200 guys and 7 are in their top 30 and two more are on the verge of the top 30.

You draft 4 and 4 make your top 30.  You draft 13 and 9 are in or close to your top 30.

The more you draft, the better you do.  Interesting.  Maybe someone should remind Grant of that the next time he stops drafting after the second round.

The draft is mercifully over

Analysis of Day 3 - The Indians took 20 guys I have never heard of with none of them anywhere near being considered even a middling prospect based on pre-draft rankings.  This is where the scouts come in.  If the Indians can find even one guy from this group to make impact of a Tony Sipp down the road then we have something.

Overall analysis - Last year the Indians took and signed 11 of 12 Baseball America top 200 prospects guys.  Nine of those were in the first 10 rounds.  They had prospect rankings, in order of selection, of:
4, 66, 75, 84, 160, 89, 58, 80, 105, 124,  112, respectively.  Thats 7 in the top 100 with the additional 4 being before 160.  Of these, 7 were college guys and 4 were HS kids.

This year the Indians took 6 BA prospect guys.  Their prospect rankings were 7 (8th overall selection), 31 (67th),  176 (97th), 143 (188th), 104 (608th), 131 (728th).   Four of the six were HS kids.

Last year I was ecstatic with their picks.  This year I am angry. 

As has been stated already the Indians essentially quit drafting after the 2nd round.  Yeah, they selected middling prospects in the 3rd and 6th round and a couple of flyers on guys in the 20th and 24th rounds, but I would venture to say (research later) that the Indians took close to the fewest top 200 guys.  For a franchise that admittedly has to live by the draft that is a joke and the joke is on the fans of Cleveland.

Last year showed that good prospects could be drafted and signed and, with better prospects in the draft this year, the Indians didn't follow the draft they had last year. 

It's a shame.  But its a fact.  If Lindor or Howard doesn't sign this draft is in trouble.  If Lindor AND Howard don't sign, this draft is dead.  Remember 2007?  If those two guys don't both sign we are looking at 2007 all over again, and in that draft BA gave us an "F".  Teams that have to live by the draft can't ever afford to get an F, and especially 2 in a 5 year period. 

Sorry if that bothers all you diehard Cleveland fans out there but I have been following the draft for over 20 years and you can be sure that if I say this one sucks, it sucks. 

More tomorrow night where I do my post-draft mock draft and show you a couple of mock drafts I did in past years.

2011 Baseball Draft - Day 2 -I hate this stuff, I really do.

Overall Analysis of Day 2 - The second day of the Indians' draft sucked.  I can't say it any other way.  It sucked.  There is a reality in baseball that I don't think we all remember:  There is no such thing as a prospect that no one has seen.  There isn't.  There are so many local showcases, national showcases, college and high school games that you really can't find a diamond in the rough.  If other teams don't draft him, they don't value him as much as you do.  But more about this 'going against the grain' stuff later.

OK, the good news is that the day began with Dillon Howard becoming an Indians' draftee.  When you drafted 8th and 67th and came up with the 7th and 31st best prospects, you have had a good first round.

Then Cleveland Indians' reality set in...BIG TIME.

In the third round they selected Jake Sisco,a 19-year old RHP from Merced CC in California.  OK, the guy was the 176th rated prospect by BA and he was selected 97th.  So, as I figured the Indians would go for a potential closer on this pick AND because Sisco was an obvious overdraft, I figured they were looking for a guy who would sign for slot.  They were taking a breather from high priced prospects.  That was fine with me, although the last two high profile California JUCO pitchers that I remember the Indians signing were Seam Smith and Nick Pesco and we all remember how that turned out. 

Then it went downhill from there.  Now, I will preface my comments about the rest of day 2 by saying that I loved the 2010 draft.  They Indians mixed in a high percentage of highly rated prospects in the first 10 rounds and then sprinkled in other top prospects throughout the remaining 40 rounds.  So, the system that works for me is top prospects in the first 10 rounds and then sprinkle in guys in the lower rounds as backups if your top guys don't sign or potential extra signings if the money is there.   The Indians didn't do their job in the top 10 rounds.  Not nearly.  Yeah, they sprinkled in a few guys who were BA top 200 guys in the rounds after Howard but not enough to make a good draft.  They essentially gave themselves just barely enough to fall back on if Lindor and Howard don't sign but not enough to turn this into a great draft if they sign all of them. 

So let's examine the picks they did make, although it is almost too painful to run through the list:

In the 4th round they selected Mark (or Jake) Lowery, C, James Madison. -  Look, I have no problem with PICKING Lowery.  The problem I have is picking him in the 4th round with the talent remaining on the board at that time.  I doubt he was even the best catcher on the board at the time and not nearly the best prospect.  Lowery reminds me of Jesse Levis.  Look up his stats.  That's what we are getting if this pick pans out.   That's the point about the Jim Callis tweet and scouts' comments.  They are out of context.  Now, if you give these guys a list of players available at that spot in the draft and they STILL pick Lowery, I will concede.  I doubt that happens however, which totally defeats the support those people bring to Lowery being a good pick.  In fact it damns that pick if people have to use that info to support a historically obvious bad pick.

OK, so let's just give the Indians that one.  They are bound to come back in rounds 5-10 just like last year, right?

Wrong!

Their 5th round pick was Will Roberts, a LHP from the University of Virginia.  People who support this pick point to his stats.  I point to the fact that, DESPITE these stats he wasn't highly rated.  He is a command and control guy but, at that point there were many more highly rated command and control guys available including Sam Gaviglio, Mark Pope, Charlie Lowell, Austin Wood and fireballer Josh Osich. So, instead of making a case for why the Indians may be right and everyone else may be wrong about his ranking, someone should be asking (me, I guess) why they would pick Roberts over more highly rated guys who, in my opinion, would inherently have a better chance for success.  BTW, Roberts has a below average fastball.  No surprise there, given his low ranking.

In the 6th round the Indians selected OF Bryson Myles.  At least Myles was rated relatively highly but he is projected to be a left fielder.  Being projected to be a left fielder is the defensive equivalent to being projected to be a firstbaseman. LF is where you stick your guys who can't throw and are not fast enough or good enough defensively to play CF, even given his blazing speed.  Yeah, this is not a bad pick in ranking but to pick a guy with that limited of a future defensively?  BTW, he ranked only FIFTH on his own team in terms of BB/AB, not even averaging 1 walk every 10 AB.  So it is not like he has a good batting eye, either.  He was also 53/68 in steals, meaning that he can easily be had by good catchers and pitchers who know how to hold on runners.

In the 7th round the Indians selected HS catcher Eric Haase.  His scholarship offer is to Ohio State, not a big baseball power.  There is some positive buzz about him but the question still remains: what players could the Indians have drafted instead of him?  When guys like Nick Martini (BA #172), Brian Flynn (#192), Cody Kukuk (#154), Christian Lopes (#180), Blake Treinen (#190), David Goforth (#177) were all drafted right after Haase in the 7th round, you have to wonder if there wasn't many better prospects than Haase at this point.  Again, the question is not whether you can stretch the stats to show that Haase is NOT an incredible overdraft at this point.  Even if you concede he isn't that much of an overdraft, the question should still be why you would draft him when better prospects, by ranking were still on the board?

In the 8th round the Indians drafted another guy who wasn't ranked in BA's top 200: 6'1" HS RHP Stephen Tarpley.    So now we are getting into the rounds where a lot of the top prospects have been taken.  What do we know about this guy is that BA said he is likely to be a tough sign.  Great, a guy who isn't that highly rated who will be tough to sign.  Sounds like we will overpay for this guy if we get him at all.

In the 9th round we picked Jordan Smith, a thirdbaseman out of St. Cloud St.  He is a sophomore, making him a tough sign and he is not highly rated either.  So, in rounds 8 and 9 we now have tough signs who aren't highly rated.  BTW, Kyle Winkler (BA #43) was drafted after Smith.  So, ask me if I would have drafted Winkler ahead of Smith even though Winkler may be injured.  Absolutely, as you will find out later.

In the 10th round we took another unknown: 5'11" RHP Jeffrey Johnson of Cal Poly San Luis Obispo in CA.  A short righthander, he is a bullpen pitcher.  Brooks Pinckard (BA #114) is a highly thought of short RHP drafted just after Johnson.  So why waste a pick on Johnson when Pinckard was still on the board and thought of, by at least one team, as an essentially equivalent prospect?

So, after 10 rounds we have only 4 guys in the BA top 200 and, after Howard, no guy who is any more than a fringe prospect.  We have seen HUNDREDS of these types of unknowns/head scratchers come into the system through the draft.  These guys are 10th-20th round guys, not top 10 round guys for an organization that has admittedly limited itself PRIMARILY to growing through the draft.  This happened in the year before slotting will be mandatory so you won't be able to draft guys who fell due to bonus demands because you know they will never sign for the money you are forced to offer them.  In the last year before this happens we go cheap.   Last year was the way you run a draft.  Get your stud prospects early.  Nine of the first 10 picks were BA top 200 guys.  This year we had 4.  That is ridiculous in this year of huge depth in this draft, in the last year before slotting and for a club who admits they can only compete by drafting well.

Now, there were some flyers in the rest of the draff so far for the Indians:  Zack MacPhee was highly rated before hitting only about .260 this season.  Dillon Peters (BA 104) is a 5'9" LH HS pitcher from Indianapolis.  The ranking is a good thing, the height is a killer.  How many 5'9" LHP do you know of in the majors?  There is a reason for that.  No leverage or downhill plane. Taylor Parks (BA #131) is a 6'4" HS RHP. Kevin Kramer was ranked #131 by BA before the season but dropped out of the top 200 at draft time.

That was it.  In the 24 rounds after they drafted Myles in the 6th round they drafted exactly TWO guys who were in BA's top 200.  TWO, and was of those was a 5'9" HS pitcher.  For a total of 6 in 30 rounds.  Last year they drafted 9 in the first 10 rounds.  Now, BA's list is just a guide but, amazing, most writers and the MLB network where the first night of the draft was held, listed BA ratings for the guys drafted, meaning to me they must put some stock in those ratings.

This was a pathetic draft for the Cleveland Indians after the first two rounds.  Just pathetic.  Teams who count on the draft as their main source of talent can't do this.  And you know what?  Teams can't draft this far against the grain and be successful.  Ask the Indians about the 2007 draft, rated as an "F" by Baseball America.  If we fail to sign Lindor OR Howard this draft is suspect.  If we fail to sign either of them, this draft could go down as just as bad as 2007.  The Cleveland Indians can't afford screwups like this.  They just can't.

Tomorrow I will have my own immediately post-draft mock draft.  You will see that if you draft right, you can have good success and I will back that up with two of these drafts I did in the past and compare them to Indians' drafts of the same year in how they turned out. 

The first round is in the books

RECAP OF DAY 1

The Indians chose to go risky in the first round.  Can't say that I find anything wrong with this pick.  I would not have taken the risk but if what I have read about Lindor is true, he is a great athlete with a potent bat who has a chance to stay on the infield, if not at SS then at 2B or even 3B if he bulks up a bit.  He obviously fell into the Indians' lap because of things that transpired early in the first round.  Clearly Jungmann and Barnes, and even Jed Bradley, hurt themselves a little with their performance.  I am still predicting that Milwaukee (Jungmann AND Bradley) and Boston (Barnes) will be crowing in 3 years that they got steals at this point of the draft.  We better be able to pound our chests, too, about Lindor.  Otherwise, we should have gone safe as I suggested the Indians do.

Now, let's take a 5,000 foot look at the rest of the first round. 

There was fluidity in this round as there was absolutely no consensus who was on whom and where guys would go.  Signability picks will always exist and certainly there were some in the first 60 picks.

 
Chris Reed  (16) (60) - Los Angeles Dodgers (biggest surprise in the first round)
Jake Hager (32) (122) - Tampa Bay (12 extra picks in the top 200)
Kevin Matthews (33) (105) - Texas  (1 extra pick in top 200)
Jacob Anderson (35) (157 by BA) - Toronto (8 extra picks in top 200)
Jeff Ames (42) (119) - Tampa Bay
Dante Bichette (51) (108) - Yankees (no first round pick or extra picks)
Blake Snell (52) (184) - Tampa Bay
James Harris (went 60) (rated: not in top 300 of my list) - Tampa Bay

Also Zach Cone (Texas), Tyler Goeddel (TB), Joe Musgrove TOR) and Keenyn Walker (White Sox, no extra picks) were all drafted almost twice as soon as they had been projected to have been drafted.

In every draft you will have the flyer/against-the-grain picks like Reed, Matthews, Cone, Walker and Bichette Jr., who may also be nothing more than cheap signing picks.  Texas appears to be going that way early, maybe saving their money for later in the draft or for international free agents or, maybe, just cutting budget this year by not spending much on the draft at all.  We will only know this by the end of the summer.

 However, in this draft as I had indicated earlier in the year we also saw the teams with the most early picks take a number of signability picks just because they wouldn't have the draft budget to sign 15 guys at the slots that they deserved to be drafted.  Tampa, with its 15 picks in the top 200, select 5 players in the first round and supplemental round projected to go no higher than the late second round/early third round or later (Harris).  Toronto, with 8 extra picks,  selected two of those types, as well.    Combined with the cheap/signability selections, this leaves more quality guys left for the second and later rounds, exactly what I hoped would happen...and does happen every year.

PREVIEW OF DAY 2 FOR THE INDIANS

The strength of this draft is pitching and there are a number of good HS arms still available as I thought there would be.  The standout is Daniel Norris, a LHP from a Tennessee HS who was projected to go 16th overall.  In addition to Norris, other HS pitchers who were projected to go already but whom were still on the board are:

Dillon Howard (projected to go 31st)
Jorge Lopez (39th)
Dillon Maples (46th)

There are also college pitchers:
 John Stilson (23rd before injury)
Matt Purke (6th before uneven performance and possible injury this year)
Josh Osich (41st)
Kyle Winkler (43rd but potentially falling due to injury worries)
Tony Zych (50th) - college reliever
Anthony Meo (55)

Finally, there are a number of highly rated HS position players who have not yet been drafted, led by #16 overall rated OF Josh Bell who apparently has sent MLB a letter telling teams not to draft him.  However, after Lindor and with the pitching talent left, I don't know if the Indians will be prone to drafting HS players at this point.

Also,  no college relievers other than Reed have been drafted and there are highly touted HS pitchers still in the draft.  This sets up the second and third round for the Indians if it goes as I have predicted.  Stilson is still on the board and Purke hasn't been drafted yet so maybe the thought of drafting an injured pitcher in the 4th round is not yet out of the question.   Remember, also, that the 4th round was an opportunity to draft a HS position player who has dropped.  If they get a HS pitcher in the second round and a college reliever in the third round and no injured quality college or HS pitcher is available in the 4th round, they may take a shot at a Josh Bell-type HS position player in the 4th round. 

In any case, as I have said before, I think they will gamble in the 2nd and 4th rounds and be conventional in the 3rd and 5th rounds going:

Round 2: HS pitcher
Round 3: College reliever
Round 4: Injured pitcher or high end HS position player
Round 5: Josh Tomlin-like highly rated college pitcher who may have the ability to go to the bullpen if he can't start.

The draft, at least so far, has set itself up so far for the Indians to get a very good draft out of this year. 

Would you like to see our first 5 picks be the following guys:

Lindor
Norris
Stilson
Bell
Cole Green

I would, espeically if we could sign all of them without giving out a ML contract!

2011 Baseball Draft Preview - The night before the next day

Welcome to my draft coverage.  The 2011 ML baseball draft will be held over 3 days.

Day 1 – 7 pm Monday, June 6th, until the supplemental first round is finished.

Day 2 – Rounds 2-30

Day 3 – Rounds 31-50

The Indians will have the 8^th pick in the first round and the 67^th pick in the second round.  By my research, since compensation picks were started, the Indians have the worst combination of first and second round picks for a team finishing with the 7^th worst record in baseball overall.

First Round (8^th pick)

The Indians recent first round draft history has been documented many places.  They prefer college players to HS players.  Here are the last four first round picks of the Indians:

2007 – Beau Mills

2008 – Lonnie Chisenhall

2009 – Alex White

2010 – Drew Pomeranz

Mills was the clunker which I called at the time.  Trying to go safe that year the Indians wound up with very little from that draft, drawing an “F” grade from Baseball America.

The players the Indians will probably choose from are:

Anthony Rendon, 3B, Rice

Gerrit Cole, RHP, UCLA

Trevor Bauer, RHP, UCLA

Dylan Bundry, RHP, Oklahoma high schooler

Danny Hultzen, LHP, Virginia

Bubba Starling, OF, Kansas high schooler

Taylor Jungmann, RHP, Texas

Matt Barnes, RHP, Connecticut

Jed Bradley, LHP, Georgia Tech

Archie Bradley, RHP, Oklahoma high schooler

Francis Lindor, SS, Florida high schooler

Sonny Gray, RHP, Vanderbilt

George Springer, OF, Connecticut

Taylor Guerrieri, RHP,South Carolina high schooler

In all likelihood, by the time the Indians draft (Arizona will already have drafted twice by then) Rendon, Cole, Bauer, Bundy and Holtzen will be off the board.

That leaves the remaining guys in three categories:

High Reward, some risk –  Bauer, who will probably be gone, has a high risk in that he has had outrageous pitch counts this season (133 on Saturday) and that he isn’t very tall.  Lindor and Starling are marquee players but each come with a high price tag and the typical question marks that haunt HS hitters. Guerrieri is a late entry into this field and the Indians are supposedly considering Archie Bradley.  If I was going to rank them in terms of order of likelihood of eventual ML success it would be:

Lindor > Starling = Archie Bradley > Guerrieri

High Reward, Some question marks – The two guys who fall into this category are Jed Bradley and Sonny Gray.  Bradley was highly regarded before this season and has been in a lot of top 10 lists this spring but his mediocre performance, especially when compared to his competitors for the top draft spots, has really put him in question.  The question for Gray is can he start in the pros?  He is a short righthander who can easily be a back end of the bullpen guy.  You don’t draft those guys at #8 so the only reason to draft him that high is if the Indians were CERTAIN he could be a starter.  His stuff is dominant but he HAS to be a starter to be worthy of this selection. 

Lower risk, certainty of getting reward if injury-free – The guys who fall in this category are Jungmann, Barnes and Springer.  Springer is a good college hitter but pales in comparison to Jungmann and Barnes.  The former is a lead-pipe certainty of being a major league #3 starter if he stays healthy.  He is durable, hasn’t been abused and is a big game pitcher.  Barnes, on the other hand, has significant projectability left in his fastball as he is a cold-weather pitcher but has significant now value.  I think he a ML #3 downside with the possibility of being a #1 if everything comes together.

For these two think Barnes = Charles Nagy  and Jungmann =  a poor man's Clay Buchholz of the Red Sox.

You can’t go wrong with either and I hope the Indians take one of them with their first pick.

As if this list was not enough, Keith Law just did his latest mock draft and he has the Indians drafting Joe Ross, the HS pitcher from California whose brother, Tyson Ross, was a high draft choice a few years ago.  Two years ago it was said that the Indians were looking at Jason Kipnis with their first round pick because they were scouting him extensively.  Turns out they were looking at him as a second or third round pick and got him in the second round.  I think the same may be true for Ross.  If the Indians are looking at Joe Ross as their pick in the first round, they have some serious issues in their scouting department as there is no reason, none at all, in this deep a draft, to get cute.

Baseball America, in its latest mock draft, had the Indians drafting Jed Bradley. 

Analysis: The Indians DO NOT need to hit a HR with this pick.  Doubles and triples abound in this draft (see Barnes, Jungmann).  The Indians should pick Barnes or Jungmann with my money on Barnes.  Any other pick is too much risk for this position in the draft.  Unfortunately, both Barnes and Jungmann pitched VERY, VERY poorly in their starts in regionals this weekend whereas Jed Bradley pitched just OK (7 IP, 8 H, 2 ER).  Scouting directors sometimes have very short memories so Bradley may have just made himself the Indians’ pick even though his overall stats scream overdraft to me.  I am thinking that teams drafting in the middle of the first round who pick Barnes and Jungmann will be smiling in a couple of years, especially if the Indians don't draft Barnes.

Second Round (67^th pick)

The Indians picks in the second round the last three years (they forfeited their pick in 2007) were:

2008 – Trey Haley

2009 – Jason Kipnis

2010 -  Levon Washington

As the Indians don’t draft again for 59 picks, it will be interesting to see what their strategy is.  I will have more on this Monday night after the first round is done.

Analysis:  So many teams have multiple picks in the first round plus first round supplemental that I think you will see a number of signability picks.  That means some top prospects, probably of the high cost/high risk/high reward type will be available.  I think they will go for a high risk HS pitcher at this slot.  Maybe that is why they are scouting Ross, although he should be gone long before their second pick.  I will have more on this Monday night after we find out how the first round goes.  Guesses as to HS pitchers who might be available in the second round and are either well above or slightly below their draft slot when the Indians pick include:

Jose Ferandez, RHP, Florida HS

Joe Ross, RHP, California HS

Tyler Beede RHP, Massachusetts HS

Michael Fulmer, RHP, Oklahoma HS

Dillon Maples, RHP, North Carolina HS

Jorge Lopez RHP, Puerto Rico HS

Hudson Boyd RHP, Florida HS

Brian Brickhouse RHP, Texas HS

Third Round (97^th pick)

In 2007 the Indians did not have a third round pick.  Here are their picks in that slot in the last 3 years:

2008 –  Cord Phelps

2009 – Joe Gardner

2010 – Tony Wolters

There is no pattern here as Phelps was a reach, an overdraft, really, based on one year of decent power at Stanford after two years of no power; Gardner was a safe pick and Wolters was a player who fell due to bonus demands. 

The strength of this draft is starting pitching.  There are also enough position players who are intriguing with catchers usually being significantly overdrafted.  Considering all this I think the position that will be largely untouched at 97 is college relievers.  The college relief pitchers who are juniors who might be available at 97 are:

Chris Reed, Stanford

Tony Zych, Louisville,

Lenny Linsky, Hawaii

Kyle McMillen, Kent State

Navery Moore, Vanderbilit

Colten Murray, RHP, Kansas

Brooks Pinckard, RHP, Baylor

Scott McGough, RHP, Oregon State

Nick Maronde, LHP, Florida

Matt Price, RHP, South Carolina

Longer shots for this high of a slot include juniors

Nick Ramirez, LHP, Cal State Fullerton

Brian Flynn, LHP, Wichitat St.

Sam Stafford, RHP, Texas

Jack Armstrong, RHP, Vanderbilt

and seniors:

Ryan Duke, RHP, Oklahoma

These latter guys should also be available, and may be targets of the Indians, in later rounds.

It is also possible that the Indians will pick up a college starter who they think has closer potential and immediately convert him to the bullpen or, like Jensen Lewis a few years ago, give him a year or two to see if he can develop as a starter then turn him into a reliever when it looks like his value will be greatest there.

Analysis: I think the Indians will use this pick to catch their breaths and find a solid college reliever.  Vinnie Pestano and Chris Perez have shown them that guys groomed in college and/or early in their pro careers to be closers can make great major league relievers.  I have predicted Scott McGough from Oregon State for a while and I will stick with their prediction.

Fourth Round (128^th pick)

Here is who the Indians have picked in the last four years.

2010: Kyle Blair

2009: Kyle Bellows

2008: David Roberts

2007: TJ McFarland

The only pattern here is overdrafting in 2007-2009.  None of these guys were even CLOSE to being projected to go this high.  Blair was closer to his draft slot but has really struggled this year at low A whereas good college pitchers go to high A in their first full season and usually have success.  Thus even the Blair pick is in question right now, although I still like it.  I saw him pitch on in person on Friday and all of his pitches seem to be elevated.  He can overpower most low A hitters with that stuff but he would probably get hammered at higher levels as he was by one batter who hit a long HR on a belt high fastball.

So, what will the Indians do to break that trend?  The Indians have had good luck drafting hurt pitchers.  Vinnie Pestano stands out (drafted knowing he was having TJ surgery) and potential first rounder Robbie Aviles was available and drafted last year.  I think this will not be lost on the Indians.  Also remember Nick Adenhart of the Angels who I was screaming for the Indians to draft a few years ago when he was a top 10 draft prospect who hurt his arm right before the draft.  He signed for a reasonable amount with the Angels as I had predicted and, had it not been for a tragic car crash which took his life right after his first big league start, he could have been an all-star by now, fulfilling his pre-draft potential while signing for much less money than had he not been hurt.  The point is, there are plenty of HS and college pitchers who have arm injuries who have fallen down draft lists.  They are led this year by RHP John Stilson of Texas A&M who tore his labrum this spring.  Shoulder injuries are tough to come back from, much tougher that TJ surgery, but wouldn’t you gamble on spending $400,000 on a first rounder who got hurt than a mediocre prospect?  Don’t be surprised if Matt Purke, the top draft prospect from TCU who is a sophomore-eligible RHP who has had bad performance this year, drops due to fears about him being injured.  BTW, Stilson has gotten a second opinion that says he may not have to have surgery so he may not be available here.

This is a good spot to gamble. 

If the Indians don’t gamble on a hurt pitcher I could see them gambling on a top HS player who has fallen due to high bonus demands (similar to Wolters last year), uneven play down the stretch or threat of injury that may or may not be real (believe me, folks, this happens all the time in this draft).  We will know more after round 3 but the Indians might want to be looking at scouting reports for marquee HS guys who are either hurt or tough signs.

Analysis:  I think you will see the Indians go for a top HS player who has dropped, especially if Stilson is not available.  This is a high risk/high reward slot for me and I think the Indians will approach it this way.

Fifth Round (158^th pick)

In the past 4 years the Indians have selected the following guys in the 5^th round:

2010: Cole Cook

2009: Austin Adams

2008: Zach Putnam

2007: Jonathon Holt

So, there you have it.  College pitchers selected in this slot who may or may not be back end of the bullpen guys.  College pitchers who may or may not be around when this slot comes up include the following starters in addition to the relievers I mentioned in my 3^rd round commentary.   

Cole Green, RHP, Texas (senior)

Tyler Pill, RHP, Cal St. Fullerton

Carson Smith, RHP, Texas State

Austin Wood, RHP, Southern Cal

Sam Gaviglio, RHP, Oregon St.

Brett Moonyham, RHP, Stanford

Guys who probably will be gone by this point but would be good values here are:

Corey Mazzoni, RHP, North Carolina St.

Logan Verrett, RHP, Baylor

Madison Boer, RHP, Oregon

Adam Morgan, LHP, Alabama

The Indians may look for a LHP at this point as their farm system doesn’t have a lot of quality LH starting pitching at the moment.  I think if they go for Barnes or Jungmann with their first pick, I think LH starting pitching becomes a priority for them in this round and in rounds 6-10.

Analysis: I think the Indians will go with a college starting pitcher.  If the previous rounds go as I think they will that will give them 3 solid picks in the top 5 and set them up to take risks later on.  John Mirabelli has been quoted as saying if you can get 2-3 guys from the draft to make solid contributions to your major league team you will have a successful draft.   I look for them to pop Adam Morgan, Kylin Turnbull, Brian Flynn or gamble on Ryan Carpetner (Gonzaga) or underperforming Brett Mooneyham (Stanford) or fall back to a HS lefty such as Andrew Suarez, Cody Kukuk or dipping guys who sunk on draft lists this year, Phil Pfeifer, Cody Glenn or even Blake Snell or Adam McCreery if they can’t find a college lefty they want and, in so doing, add a little more risk to their draft.

Rounds 6-10

This is where all heck will break loose, or so I predict.  The Indians will use at least 2 of these 5 picks on highly rated guys who have dropped.  Last year they did this 3 rounds earlier but with the depth at the top of the draft pushing good prospects down to the 3^rd-5^th rounds, I think they will start a little later. The other 3 will be on the best position players available at that point.  There will be lots of decent position player prospects, especially middle infield college guys and probably some guys who will turn out to be better than their slots. 

I'll have more Monday night (analysis and preview of the next day's rounds) with a preview of Tuesday and then more Tuesday night (analysis and preview) and then analysis on Wednesday night.  

     

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