Wednesday, June 8, 2011

Post draft mock vs real draft from 2008

As I said I will be posting my post draft mock draft tomorrow night.  But as a teaser check out my 2008 mock draft done right after that draft:

(BA ranking at time of draft) Real Draft (BA top 20ranking with Indians now)   
(74)Chisenhall (1)
(126)Haley (NR)
(NR)Phelps (20 - in majors)
(NR)Roberts (Released)
(50)Putnam (17)
(NR)Tice (NR)
(NR)Fedroff (NR)
(NR)Berger (NR)
(NR)Clayton Cook (NR)
(NR)Webb (NR)
(NR)Langwell (NR)

Mock draft (BA top 20 ranking with current team)
(23)Conor Gillaspie (17)
(15)Tim Melville (14)
(134)Brandon Crawford (6 - in majors now)
(50)Putnam (17)
(NR)Josh Satin (NR)
(90)Eric Thames (12)
(NR)Cody Overbeck (NR)
(NR)Andy Dirks (11)
(155)DJ Mitchell (18)
(NR)Michael Stutes (NR)
(NR)Rob Musgrave (NR)

So, besides the obvious goof on my part with Gillaspie and Chisenhall that I have since said I messed up on, we have the Indians drafting 3 guys in BA's top 200 in 11 rounds and coming up with 3 guys in their top 30 three years later, although one was Phelps who wasn't ranked then but is now and one was Haley, who was ranked then but not now..

In my mock draft I drafted 6 guys in BA's top 200 and ended up with all them being in their organization's top 20 prospects.  I also added 1 guy who wasn't ranked in the top 200 at draft time who ended up in the organization's top 20.

So, I obviously messed up on Chisenhall but I didn't want to take the risk of his criminal past coming back.  Aside from that I outdrafted the Indians by picking what I thought were appropriate guys from BA's top 200.  I did this the next day after the draft so I didn't know whether these guys would sign.  I think i fyou add up the bonuses of the guys I drafted it comes up to being about $1 million cheaper or something like that.

So, for less money I got more prospects, although I didn't get Chisenhall. 

How did I do this?  The same way the Indians had the best draft on paper last year: draft more top prospects and sign them.

One year does not make an arugment but you see the point.  When you add our 2010 draft, you see where I am going.

BTW, the Indians in 2008 took the fewest BA top 200 guys of any team (4).  The other one not on the list above was TJ House.  Boston took 13 BA top 200 guys and 7 are in their top 30 and two more are on the verge of the top 30.

You draft 4 and 4 make your top 30.  You draft 13 and 9 are in or close to your top 30.

The more you draft, the better you do.  Interesting.  Maybe someone should remind Grant of that the next time he stops drafting after the second round.

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