Updated prospect list

As we approach spring training, here is my updated prospect list.  Note that Anthony Santander is not on this list but I have added Hoby Milner, to reflect the results of the Rule 5 draft.  Obviously this will change if Santander comes back and Milner doesn't make the team.  Note that none of Trevor Frank, Nick Maronde, Grant Sides or Jon Fitzsimmons, all lost in the Rule 5 draft, had made my off-season list nor would they have made this list.  Obviously this is really early and trades, players being cut, etc. could change this list going forward but this is a good snapshot of how I think the organization's talent looks right now.    As far as the overall talent in the Indians' farm system I rank it as somewhere between the 14th and 16th strongest among major league organizations.   Most of the prospects appear to be complimentary players or impact players with huge question marks (holes in their games or a long way away from the majors).  So there is lots of potential there but very few players who even come close to being sure things to impact the 2017 Cleveland Indians.   Even Bradley Zimmer doesn't appear to be a guy who has star quality...at least he hasn't shown it yet as his hitting and defense still not a lot of polishing.    In any case, enjoy the list.  I will update it after spring training to account for changes in roster status and injuries.

1. Triston McKenzie
2. Nolan Jones
3. Francisco Mejia
4. Brady Aiken
5. Bradley Zimmer
6. Bobby Bradley
7. Erik Gonzalez
8. Yandy Diaz
9. Adam Plutko
10. Yu Cheng Chang
11. Ryan Merritt
12. Will Benson
13. Shawn Morimando
14. Greg Allen
15. Andrew Calica
16. Connor Marabell
17. Mark Mathias
18. Joseph Colon
19. Rob Kaminsky
20. Aaron Civale
21. Shane Bieber
22. Cameron Hill
23.  Mike Papi
24. Willi Castro
25. Juan Hillman
26. Nellie Rodriguez
27. Tyler Krieger
28. Matt Esparza
29. Shawn Armstrong
30. Connor Capel
31. Logan Ice
32. Taylor Murphy
33. Ben Krauth
34. Julian Merryweather
35. Gabriel Mejia
36. Ulysses Cantu
37. Marco Gonzalez
38. Samad Taylor
39. Luis Oviedo
40. Jorma Rodriguea
41. Oscar Gonzalez
42. Thomas Pannone
43. Nick Pasquale
44. Casey Shane
45. Andrew Lantrip
46. Zach Plesac
47. Louis Head
48. Perci Garner
59. Hoby Milner
50. Jonas Wyatt
51. Luke Watkamatsu
52. Justin Garza (2015 draftee)

Greg Holland

I think the Indians should have extended themselves and signed Greg Holland.  

His $6 million base salary couldn't have been too rich for the Indians, despite where they are in payroll.   His $1 million buyout next year couldn't have been that debilitating, either.  Now, maybe he wouldn't sign with us because of our bullpen as it might make it harder for him to get a big payday next year if he had to share setup or closer roles.  But still...

Look, I see this as clearly as can be seen.   Miller, Shaw and Allen have been worked to death.   If we do our job we easily win the AL Central...but we have to do our job.   I can see things going south and us having to overuse Miller, Shaw and Allen to just win the division, really similar to the Cavs having to overuse LeBron this season.    This after Miller, Shaw and Allen were burned out by Francona in the playoffs.  

If the Indians go into the season with the current bullpen they are seriously rolling the dice and putting all the money they are spending on salary in serious jeopardy.  

To me, we look good right now but the key to this year's success will be finding a shutdown righty and a good LOOGY to take the pressure off the big 3 in the bullpen.  If we have to go into the season with our current bullpen I don't think we stand a chance getting through the playoffs without a serious or season-ending injury to one of those guys...and that means well above the average chance in baseball for that to happen.

That hasn't happened and, to me, this is a huge problem for the Indians.   I hope they find these two guys as, with them, the season looks really good and without them, this team becomes a house of cards with the season being in jeopardy with even a mild gust of wind. 

Condolences

to the families of Andy Marte and Yordano Ventura.

Both will be missed in baseball.   Both had their ups and downs but both brought moments that fans will remember. 

It is truly a sad day for baseball.

p.s., there may be an other ML and minor league alums who passed away recently who are not mentioned here or in articles about Marte and Ventura.    Sometimes those passings are only found in small, local articles in the areas in which those former players/managers/staff and umpires lived or from the teams they worked for.  My condolences go out to their families, as well 

International signings - Time to make them a high priority and back it up with dollars!

OK, I am an Indians' geek and I have been for a half a century since I was a little kid.  Part of the legacy of following the Tribe for that long is that I always looked to the future...as there wasn't usually much of a present.   So, even with many of us being giddy about the Indians' 2017 season, I am looking towards 2020 and beyond.  

So, the acquisition of talented prospects, something that has always been front and center on my radar, is what I wanted to talk about today.  

The Indians, with the signing of Encarnacion, find themselves in an unusual place.   For only the 3rd time since the draft started in 1965, the Indians don't have a first round pick.  Plus, their excellent record last year means they will pick near the end of each round of the draft AND their competitive balance pick is buried after the second round of the draft.  What this means is that their first pick in the draft will be around #65, which is second worst opening pick in Indians' history.  

I wrote about the loss of the first round pick and the implications to the draft in December but, in summary, it is likely that we will not be able to get an impact player in the 2017 draft unless (a) a highly rated guy falls out of the first round and (b) we sign a bunch of college seniors to save up money to sign that one guy.   Other than that scenario we are likely to get a bunch of guys who will sign for slot money.   While the Indians have been very good about getting what, on paper, looks like decent talent to sign for slot money in rounds 2 and beyond, none of the guys we drafted below #65 in a draft are looking like more than complimentary players, even if we went over slot to sign them!   The guys who ARE looking good were selected using first round (and first round supplemental) picks and who were very highly rated at the time they were drafted.

So, since our 2017 draft is likely to produce, on paper, one top prospect at best, if everything falls our way, we need to find a way to fill the prospect pipeline in ways other than the draft. 

Since we all like to spend the Indians' money (really, admit it, you like to do that, too!), I want to state again something I said right after the Encarnacion signing:

We need to apply a lot of our amateur talent acquisition resources (i.e., scouts, bonuses) to the international market.  To bend an old expression: we need to spend like drunken scouting directors. 

I hope that the Indians already had a budget for the 2017 draft before they signed Encarnacion. If they did, the projected money for the draft doesn't simply go away and, hopefully, they didn't use that budget to sign Encarnacion.   If that money still exists, I think it is a MUCH better idea to target it toward the international free agent market and, maybe, even take some of the remaining draft money and push it towards international free agents.    

I see two areas to spend money....and I think we should be spending a lot of money internationally this summer:

1. Posting on or signing outright high quality  international professional free agents

2. Signing big name amateur free agents from Latin America starting on July 1st. 

I don't advocate #2 very often as the Indians have done a good job getting and developing good talent from Latin America on the cheap (Danny Salazar, Jose Ramirez, etc.) and have had not so good luck when they did spend anywhere close to $1 to sign a young Latin free agent.   However, this year I think we should go for a couple of high budget (>$2 million) Latin signings.   While they are high risk as these guys are only 16 years old, these guys can be acquired more easily as there is no draft and the penalties for going over the international budget are much less severe if you don't do it every year than they are for going over the draft budget pool.  Plus, there are Cuban players like Yandy Diaz (and better) who are/will be available.  Bottom line: if done correctly I think we can limit our risk and maximize our rewards, probably to a level much greater than if were able to spend all the money on draft choices.

As far as #1, this is generally reserved for big budget teams but  teams like Minnesota have been able to sign quality talent for a reasonable price in this process so maybe it is time for the Indians to dip more than their toes in this pool.  Maybe it is time for them to do a full out belly flop from the high board into the deep end! 

In summary, it has been pointed out by a lot of writers with a lot of data over the years saying how bad it is to miss an entire year of coming up with prospects for a team's prospect pipeline.   The Indians can attest to that as they had gaping holes in their prospect pipeline in years where they either did not have a first round pick or where their first round pick(s) flamed out early.

So, we can roll the dice and MAYBE get one gem out of this draft if everything goes our way (see Albert Belle years ago).  But, in 2017, the place we ought to be spending the Indians' hard-earned dollars is internationally...and at levels never seen before in Cleveland.

That is how we keep this prospect pipeline flowing. 


 

Tyler Naquin - what to make of him

Now that we have decided not to sign Mike Napoli and Rajai Davis and assuming our bullpen trio is healthy and productive and remains so, there is no bigger question mark on the 2017 Indians than Tyler Naquin.

Has the league caught up to him using the Cubs blueprint or will Naquin adjust yet again.   For those of you who don't remember, Naquin was hitting well early in 2016 despite only getting rare chances to play in the first few weeks of the season, something that would cause most players to imitate the tin man at the beginning of the Wizard of Oz.  However, when Naquin played, he hit, yet he was sent to the minors with a number of goals, the most out-front of which was to learn to take a walk.   He accomplished that goal and was brought back up to the majors where he prospered against righties. 

To me that was all very impressive for a rookie who I felt had the ceiling of a very good 4th outfielder on a 5 outfielder team.

Then there was the post-season.   Remember it is possible, maybe likely, that the reason the Indians didn't bring back Napoli and didn't extend their budget to bring back Davis was because of their post-season flops.   But Naquin, who was less of a factor than the two above-mentioned veterans,  remains.

Is he an integral part of the 2017 Indians?  Will he have a breakout year, continuing to show that when given a challenge (like the bases on ball thing last year) he has the tools to make the necessary adjustments.  Or will he finally be exposed and fade off into obscurity?  This sounds like baseball's version of the popular HG TV show.   We could call it: "Rip or Flop".  Will the relationship between the Indians and Naquin end up flourishing or in divorce?  Only time will tell.

As a veteran prognosticator (translation: a guy who isn't afraid to guess on what will happen but rarely has any more clue than the next guy) I can't even begin to imagine how this will go.   I will say this.   Francona does not cut young players any slack.   If he thinks Naquin is not going to help him win but he is stuck with Naquin on the roster, he simply won't play him in the way necessary to get Naquin to optimize his performance.   If Francona is impressed with how Naquin looks when he comes to spring training and sees his value, Naquin will get every chance and more (is that even mathematically possible?) to prove he can help the team win, despite what Chernoff and Antonetti might think.   And Tito is usually right, or at least that is what I have seen so far. 

So that is my answer of what to make of Naquin:  If Tito likes him Naquin will likely prosper to some level.   Whether that level is good enough to be a starting OFer on a playoff team will be decided this year.   If Francona doesn't like him out of ST, don't be surprised if the 3rd place finisher in last year's ROY balloting ends up beginning and spending a lot of 2017 in the minors.  If the latter happens, Naquin is likely gone next off-season and NOT for very much in return.    He then would likely go the way of the Chad Huffmans of the world and just bounce around from organization to organization.

So let's hope Naquin reaches his potential in 2017, which, to me, is about 30% better, all things considered, than his play last year.  If that happens, we have a keeper here as Naquin has shown me that he learns a lot from past experiences.   And we have a keeper who is cheap for years to come and a young guy who can continue to grow on our fan base.  Think a poor man's Grady Sizemore in Sizemore's prime.  I'll take that any day of the week in Cleveland.

Rajai Davis and other thoughts

I am not upset we didn't sign Davis.   I would rather sign or trade for (now or in July) a third baseman  with power and an OK glove and free up Jose Ramirez for another outfielder AND utility duty and to fill a starting OF slot, if necessary.   We would also eliminate the need for a Michael Martinez or even Erik Gonzalez (both of whom could be used in trade(s)) as utility guys and, hopefully, give us more power in our lineup.  I don't think Martinez and Gonzalez add much offensively although they are great 25th men who sit there and don't gripe if they don't play.   I would rather give Tito a bunch of guys who are about equal which is what happens if Ramirez takes over that utility role.   Now you position your yourself to play all 25 guys (assuming the bullpen gets in order) without much drop in ability.   Thus you have mostly the same chance to win every night and still keep guys fresh.

Don't know who I would target in trades but it doesn't look like there is a free agent I would break the bank for.   Again, Chernoff, Antonetti and Francona are the veterans but their summer trades (Miller, Guyer and Crisp) have worked out better than their bargain basement free agent signings (Napoli and Davis on the plus side but Marlon Byrd and Jose Uribe on the down side)

As I said, right now I would rather focus on finding a lockdown right hander and a good LOOGY who can get the occasional RH batter out.   Drew Storen just signed with the Reds for $3 million.   Not saying Storen was a guy I targeted but one year deals for Storen and Holland would look really good to me right now for $9 million.

Still relievers out there and I trust the Indians and Tito to find the right ones.   Still, if they plan to go into the season with the current relievers they will be playing right into Tito's tendency to overuse his star relievers.  You have to give Francona weapons or he will likely default to having his best record by overusing the stud relievers and underusing the rest...as has been his pattern in the past few years. 

Hey, I have ultimate trust that Tito is the guy who will make us win.   I just think we need to give him more veteran weapons in the bullpen so he feels more at ease giving Miller, Allen and Shaw, in that order, the rest they need.   He also needs to have enough good position players that if he needs to give one rest or fill a need if a guy goes on the DL, he already has that player on his roster and any guy he brings up from the minors isn't pressed into playing full-time and can operate, at the beginning, as that 25th man.

Happy New Year

The Indians into extra innings in Game 7 of the WS.  The Cavs as champions.  Ohio State in the final 4. 

If we can top that in 2017 or even match it, it will be another great year in Cleveland sports. 

Happy New Year to all the readers of this blog.  Hopefully you all will come back this year.