Monday, September 4, 2017

Labor Day thoughts

First order of business: prayers to the people in Texas and Louisiana impacted by Harvey.  Thanks to all the people who have been donating time and money to help these people in need. 

This season is somewhat similar to last season.    You gotta love that.

We have a 9 game lead and things are looking good right now but let's take a look at the construction of the post-season roster which, this year, may be very, very difficult and guys who we all think are locks for the roster may not be such locks after all.

The roster looks pretty deep right now.   The only problem is that, without Andrew Miller being Andrew Miller in 2016, we aren't prepared if Kluber or Carrasco get injured in September.

Here are some thoughts to think about as we go through September and think about the post-season:

Tyler Olson, Craig Breslow or neither - This may really suck for Olson but Breslow is more the known quantity if we want a LOOGY.   But do we even want a LOOGY?  I guess it depends on Miller's health.

25th man competition - Erik Gonzalez, Giovanny Urshela, Abe Almonte or no one?  Again,  it all depends on Miller.  If he isn't there we may have to have another situational reliever and may work with a really short bench.  Frankly, in the 10th inning of the 7th game of the WS I would want any of the three of these guys as the 25th man.  Any of these, or Yandy Diaz, would be a huge upgrade over Michael Martinez.

Which outfielders do we take?   Again, this depends on an injury, this one to Brantley.   Doing the math, if Brantley is healthy, we have an issue.  One of Brantley, Zimmer, Chisenhall, Jackson or Bruce doesn't make the post-season roster, even if Miller is healthy.  With Santana maybe playing in the outfield if we get to the WS, it makes having 5 regular OFers that much more unnecessary.  If I had to leave out an outfielder I would, unfortunately, have to leave out Zimmer.   The Tyler Naquin experience last year should show you that.   I see the same issues on offense with Zimmer in the post-season.   You may be able to weather that if everyone else is clicking but if Kipnis is not rostered (see below) you then would have multiple possible holes (CF, C, 3B) in your lineup.  Unfortunately that is an open invitation to waste a Corey Kluber gem by losing 1-0 or 2-1 or 3-2.  We need 8 strong hitters in our lineup plus our catcher if we want to maximize the effectiveness of our starting pitching. So, what about Kipnis?

Kipnis or no Kipnis - My heart says to keep the faith that he will miraculously become the Kipnis of 2016 in this last month.   However, if he isn't 100% and close to 100% of what he was in 2016, the guy becomes an albatross.   You have to play him because he is Jason F'n Kipnis.  However, if he is just an easy out, why play him?  Sure as heck not for his defense and he can supply the same bench and clubhouse presence even if he isn't on the active roster.   The team would be better with Kipnis not on the roster and Urshela or Diaz (at least in the AL playoffs) at 3B. 

As far as the rest of the bullpen, barring injuries, it is set with Otero, McAllister, Allen and Goody.

The rest of the September callups have essentially no chance to make the 25 man roster.

It is quite possible, as much as the rules allow, that we may see a different roster each level of the posts-season IF we continue to advance.

Some very interesting decisions for our manager and the front office brain trust.   Let's hope Tito is as up to that task as he is at getting his players ready for the post-season and managing the guys he is given IN the post-season.

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