CASTRO DEAL
It sucked.
OK, I needed to do that.
This was not a good trade at all.
Look, Tommy Pham was obtained by Tampa for less, in my opinion. Yes, the Cardinals got 3 prospects for Pham but the highest was 15th rated Rays prospect.
Willi Castro, who we traded for Martin/Dowdy, was our #8 prospect.
Hey, I don't think Castro projects, at least right now, to be any better than Erik Gonzalez. He could definitely have been traded. But for Martin/Dowdy?
Absolutely freaking not and here is why:
1. This organization is filled with guys like Martin, only better. Lefthanded hitters with speed like Allen, Zimmer and Naquin are all passable AND not even close to arbitration. This TOTALLY negates the fact that Martin still is under control after this year and increases a logjam that we have for lefthanded hitting center field types.
2. The Cardinals just traded Tommy Pham to Tampa Bay for 3 prospects, their #15, #28 and one other guy. We traded our #8 prospect, Castro. I will make the argument that Castro is better than the package Tampa Bay gave up. I have seen Pham play for two years now. He is a good player who is having an off-season.
No, Tommy Pham was a much better choice for us. He hits right handed, which we need. Martin adds nothing, in my opinion, after this year although this year he does save Rajai Davis' legs. Castro may not have ever been the starting SS but he was worth a lot more than we got in this trade.
As far as Dowdy, let's hope he becomes a good relief prospect. There are stats there that make me think he can be. However, it may be 2 years away, if ever. I don't think he rates as high as Cam Hill right now and Hill has been hurt most of the year.
I am on board with Castro being traded but this is, to me, just the same as a two month rental for a mediocre piece. Not a good use of Castro, IMHO.
CAPEL/TORRES DEAL
OK, like many who have opined already, this is a head scratching deal for me. Mercado is closer to the majors but Capel and Torres are younger.
Maybe Mercado could be swung in another deal. Maybe there is a team that wants Mercado but couldn't get him from the Cardinals. If you look at him as a centerfielder he is maybe an upgrade from Greg Allen but that isn't saying much. Martin and Zimmer are everyday players even with their warts. I don't know if Mercado adds much to the mix as a rookie 4th outfielder even next year and if he ever develops, it may be outside of window of competitiveness.
Now what we gave up is interesting. Capel was assigned to Lake County last year due to need and he survived the first half of the season and prospered in the 2nd half. This year he has settled in as a young guy at High A but his numbers are not eye-popping but he is young for his league. So this is a 50/50 thing to me. I have seen guys do what Capel is doing and get more credit than they deserve because they are young for their league. But once they get to the higher levels of the minors they stall. However, Capel is the sort of long-term prospect that can bite you in the butt some day if he puts it all together and just develops one plus tool (i.e., power). Torres is so young it is hard to know what to make of him but I have seen flashes in his stats during the year and my guess is that the Cardinals have seen him for a while and like his long, long-term potential as he matures physically.
So we trade for an older prospect closer to the majors who doesn't except for his speed, show much else and won't help us this year and, in the majors of today, doesn't have much of a place as he isn't a power hitter. If his defense improves he looks like a righthanded version of Leonys Martin but trading prospects for a platoon player or a 4th outfielder type does not help now or in the future.
I am not excited about this trade because, like the Martin trade, it spends resources in ways that doesn't really help the long-term future of this franchise in any way I can guess. But that's what scouts and player development is for, I guess.
If you are going to trade prospects get something back that will help now or is more guaranteed to help later. I don't see either of these trades doing that. It just looked like we re-arranged the deck chairs while spending resources. I don't like that approach at all.
Tuesday, July 31, 2018
Thursday, July 19, 2018
Analysis of Mejia for Hand/Cimber trade
In a nutshell, here is what we have:
6 years of Francisco Mejia for 3-4 years of Brad Hand and 5+ years of Cimber.
Or, put another way, 2-3 years of Mejia as an all-star for that same package.
I have to admit I hate trading prospects but if Hand is and remains healthy this is a good trade in our window of competitiveness.
Cimber? He goes the way of Nick Goody as a flash in the pan. Let's hope that flash is good enough to get us out of the AL and into the World Series.
Here are some other moves I think the Indians should make:
Bring in a RH power hitter who can play at 3B and 1B. In this way he can play at first in the regular season and in the AL playoffs, if we make it that far, and at 3B in the World Series. This would offset our lefthanded hitting outfield.
If you can make that trade...
Trade Kipnis and Alonso for a really bad contract or even two. I can't even begin to imagine what THAT would look like but maybe there is something that could be done.
6 years of Francisco Mejia for 3-4 years of Brad Hand and 5+ years of Cimber.
Or, put another way, 2-3 years of Mejia as an all-star for that same package.
I have to admit I hate trading prospects but if Hand is and remains healthy this is a good trade in our window of competitiveness.
Cimber? He goes the way of Nick Goody as a flash in the pan. Let's hope that flash is good enough to get us out of the AL and into the World Series.
Here are some other moves I think the Indians should make:
Bring in a RH power hitter who can play at 3B and 1B. In this way he can play at first in the regular season and in the AL playoffs, if we make it that far, and at 3B in the World Series. This would offset our lefthanded hitting outfield.
If you can make that trade...
Trade Kipnis and Alonso for a really bad contract or even two. I can't even begin to imagine what THAT would look like but maybe there is something that could be done.
Thursday, July 5, 2018
To trade or not to trade
Last year Joe Smith cost us Samad Taylor and Thomas Pannone -- in July
Last year Jay Bruce cost us Ryder Ryan...a week later in August
A look this morning shows that the Indians are 11.5 games up from their nearest rivals in the AL Central, both of whom are 2-8 in their last 10 games and likely will be big time sellers as we approach the trade deadline.
So, unless an incredible disaster occurs, we are going to win the AL Central and make the playoffs.
August trades generally cost you less than July trades and late August trades generally cost even less as you are getting the guy(s) you want for a shorter period of time.
So why rush?
The Indians don't need a particular RH hitter. They just need a RH hitter who does not play 1B, SS or catcher.
The Indians don't need a particular reliever, they just need an upgrade (or two) in their relief corps.
Look, the Indians are not battling for a playoff berth here like many other teams. They are likely in the playoffs.
Let's do some bargain hunting. I would rather have another Jay Bruce trade than a Joe Smith trade. And I don't care if we make that trade July 31, August 1 and August 30.
So, let's wait, take a deep breath and make trades later than earlier. It is important to remember that teams that are buyers on July 31 are often sellers on August 31. So let's make our trades when we need them, on August 31, rather than when it is a seller's market on July 31.
We do not need to give away significant assets in our farm system. We need to KEEP those assets. We are a small market team and we need to act like one.
Yeah, upgrade the team where you can but DON'T trade away our good prospects. We don't need that to make the playoffs and, as everyone says, once you are in the playoffs anything can happen.
Last year Jay Bruce cost us Ryder Ryan...a week later in August
A look this morning shows that the Indians are 11.5 games up from their nearest rivals in the AL Central, both of whom are 2-8 in their last 10 games and likely will be big time sellers as we approach the trade deadline.
So, unless an incredible disaster occurs, we are going to win the AL Central and make the playoffs.
August trades generally cost you less than July trades and late August trades generally cost even less as you are getting the guy(s) you want for a shorter period of time.
So why rush?
The Indians don't need a particular RH hitter. They just need a RH hitter who does not play 1B, SS or catcher.
The Indians don't need a particular reliever, they just need an upgrade (or two) in their relief corps.
Look, the Indians are not battling for a playoff berth here like many other teams. They are likely in the playoffs.
Let's do some bargain hunting. I would rather have another Jay Bruce trade than a Joe Smith trade. And I don't care if we make that trade July 31, August 1 and August 30.
So, let's wait, take a deep breath and make trades later than earlier. It is important to remember that teams that are buyers on July 31 are often sellers on August 31. So let's make our trades when we need them, on August 31, rather than when it is a seller's market on July 31.
We do not need to give away significant assets in our farm system. We need to KEEP those assets. We are a small market team and we need to act like one.
Yeah, upgrade the team where you can but DON'T trade away our good prospects. We don't need that to make the playoffs and, as everyone says, once you are in the playoffs anything can happen.
Tuesday, July 3, 2018
Draft update
OK, if I have done the math right, looking at the MLB draft website, it looks like we have spent our entire draft budget PLUS our 5% allocation DOWN TO THE LAST PENNY!!!!!!! I have been covering the draft for the Indians for a number of years and I have never seen them spend every single penny right up to the level where they would lose their #1 pick next year...but not cross that line. Maybe other teams have done that but I am not sure how many.
So, we signed Holland for $515,000 after being able lowball Kwan.
Hill and Duplantis got away, apparently, but the bottom line is that this was a good draft.
Congratulations to management for allowing our draft guru to spend up to the exact dollar (we hope) that is allowable. The point here is that, by doing this, the Indians will have to pay a $457,000 penalty for going the full 5% over their draft budget. Money that will not go to a player but, rather, to MLB. That's how much faith management put into this draft.
Congratulations to our draft gurus for structuring this draft and negotiating these contracts such that we used every possible penny and no more (we hope) to sign these picks.
The draft is the lifeblood of a small market team and we just had a good draft. Will any of these guys ever really impact the ML team? Who knows. But at least now our player development staff has a chance.
Along with our Latin free agent signings (and those to come) I think the Indians have really infused a lot of talent into their farm system this year.
Now on to developing that talent!
So, we signed Holland for $515,000 after being able lowball Kwan.
Hill and Duplantis got away, apparently, but the bottom line is that this was a good draft.
Congratulations to management for allowing our draft guru to spend up to the exact dollar (we hope) that is allowable. The point here is that, by doing this, the Indians will have to pay a $457,000 penalty for going the full 5% over their draft budget. Money that will not go to a player but, rather, to MLB. That's how much faith management put into this draft.
Congratulations to our draft gurus for structuring this draft and negotiating these contracts such that we used every possible penny and no more (we hope) to sign these picks.
The draft is the lifeblood of a small market team and we just had a good draft. Will any of these guys ever really impact the ML team? Who knows. But at least now our player development staff has a chance.
Along with our Latin free agent signings (and those to come) I think the Indians have really infused a lot of talent into their farm system this year.
Now on to developing that talent!
Where are we with the draft?
OK. Let's start by saying that the draft is only as good as the scouts/analytics/dumb luck/smart luck that goes into it. So, you can never know how good a draft is. For many years I have looked at various rankings and done mock drafts to see if I can do it better than the Indians. If you look back through this blog you will know that I can't.
So, the only questions I have about any Indians' draft are:
a. Did the Indians draft a significant number of highly touted prospects?
b. Did they allocate their bonus pool to get talent as good or better than their draft slots?
c. Did they have enough left over to sign any sleepers?
Looking at the draft right now I think they accomplished a and b. We will find out about c. in the next few days.
Look, to make this draft a homerun they had to sign all of their picks in the first 10 rounds. They did that.
To make it a two-run homer they needed to sign all the college guys in rounds 11-40 who were college juniors and seniors and a few HS and juco guys. They did that.
To make this draft a three run dinger or a grand salami they also needed to sign some or all of Korey Holland, Antoine Duplantis and Kaleb Hill.
Looking at the bonus numbers here is what we have:
Amount over the Indians' bonus pool that they have spent so far: $210,660
Amount they have left to spend to get up to 5% over their bonus pool: $246,540
Now, we may save some money if we can lowball Kwan but, at the most, we are looking AT MOST having $300,000 left to spend over budget. If you look at it for one player that means that we can offer that guy around $400,000 (remaining excess plus the $125,000 we can spend on that spot).
When you look at those numbers, Duplantis is the only guy of the three that I think we have a good chance to sign. Now, if I could get Holland for $400,000 I take him over Duplantis. Ditto for Hill. My reasoning is that getting a quality HS guy is always better than getting a quality college guy, everything else being equal. More upside and, in rounds 11-40, you want upside over present value.
So we have a few days left but right now be looking to see if we sign one or more of Duplantis, Hill and Holland. This draft is good right now based on the criteria above. If we sign any of these three it just gets better. And, for a small market club, a grand slam draft is the best you can hope for.
So, the only questions I have about any Indians' draft are:
a. Did the Indians draft a significant number of highly touted prospects?
b. Did they allocate their bonus pool to get talent as good or better than their draft slots?
c. Did they have enough left over to sign any sleepers?
Looking at the draft right now I think they accomplished a and b. We will find out about c. in the next few days.
Look, to make this draft a homerun they had to sign all of their picks in the first 10 rounds. They did that.
To make it a two-run homer they needed to sign all the college guys in rounds 11-40 who were college juniors and seniors and a few HS and juco guys. They did that.
To make this draft a three run dinger or a grand salami they also needed to sign some or all of Korey Holland, Antoine Duplantis and Kaleb Hill.
Looking at the bonus numbers here is what we have:
Amount over the Indians' bonus pool that they have spent so far: $210,660
Amount they have left to spend to get up to 5% over their bonus pool: $246,540
Now, we may save some money if we can lowball Kwan but, at the most, we are looking AT MOST having $300,000 left to spend over budget. If you look at it for one player that means that we can offer that guy around $400,000 (remaining excess plus the $125,000 we can spend on that spot).
When you look at those numbers, Duplantis is the only guy of the three that I think we have a good chance to sign. Now, if I could get Holland for $400,000 I take him over Duplantis. Ditto for Hill. My reasoning is that getting a quality HS guy is always better than getting a quality college guy, everything else being equal. More upside and, in rounds 11-40, you want upside over present value.
So we have a few days left but right now be looking to see if we sign one or more of Duplantis, Hill and Holland. This draft is good right now based on the criteria above. If we sign any of these three it just gets better. And, for a small market club, a grand slam draft is the best you can hope for.
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