THoughts for a Sunday - post Big Game hangover version

 THE GAME

Well, I can't say I am surprised.  Michigan skunks Ohio State again!  I hate to say this by Jim Harbaugh and staff totally outcoach Ryan Day and staff.   

Here is the thing.  I have been an amateur coach for 35 years.   I know the difference between 11-1 against top competitions in a national qualifier and 11-1 in pool play against weak competition.    Looking at the Ohio State games this season I would say they were outcoached in probably 8 of the games.   In fact, if you did a strength of roster comparison and factored that with the final score, the Buckeyes would be about 7-4 at this point.  Maryland, Northwestern, Penn State all should have had no chance against OSU, especially the former two.  Yet those games, like the Penn State game, were down-to-the-end gut wrenchers.   

I believe Ryan Day is a good college football head coach and will have a good career.  He is NOT Urban Meyer, not that that s a terrible thing in and of itself.  However, Meyer's teams had their hiccups but usually rose to the occasion in a big game.  Day's teams, not so much.  He is so transparent in what he does.  He runs up the score against weaker competition to make his team and his (until Saturday) Heisman hopeful quarterback look better.  Even Saturday I think he kicked that field goal late just to make the score closer.   I mean 31-20 looks worse than a one score game at 31-23, right?  He even plays guys who shouldn't play just because they are the veterans trying to keep from being second-guessed if things go haywire.  The man knows, or thinks he knows, how to keep his job.  Of course, the reality is that you keep your job as the Ohio State football coach.

In a world where yesterday's game doesn't even represent a blip on the radar of the perils facing this plant, it doesn't really matter whether Ryan Day is the coach or whether OSU gets to the playoffs.  However, if you make the salary you need to do your job.  Ohio State's coaching staff is too well paid to screw up like this.  

I would actually be OK with the Buckeyes starting to get lower -rated recruiting classes. Maybe we ought to switch teams with Northwester and see what Ryan Day and co. can do with almost zero 4-star recruits. That's where you learn to coach, is coaching with teams that aren't, on paper, as talented as their opponents.  To me, this season has been a disaster and I am talking about well before TTUN.  

BASEBALL

Not much going on for the Guardians, is not a good thing, I think.  Their yearly strategy of 'letting the market develop' is just code for 'Let's wait for some of the lesser free agents to become desperate so we can sweep in and do our bargain basement shopping.

Teams like the Guardians need to strike early.  Sign Jose Abreu before he becomes the #1 target instead of the #1 backup plan for a number of contenders.  Give Mitch Haniger the years (3) it takes him to sign.   If Sean Murphy has too many suiters, trade for Danny Larson or sign Christian Vadsquez if the price is right on either of those two guys.

Teams in the position the Guardians are need to strike early, unlike teams like Oakland and Washington who are rebuilding and can 'let the market develop'.

NOLAN JONES NOISE

I have read a number of reports, maybe from the same souuce, saying that there is a scout somewhere comparing Nolan Jones to Bradley Zimmer in terms of offense and swing-and-miss.  All I can say to say to that is those writers and that scout are taking a worst-case scenario position here.  I mean Mercado got 426 ABs after his rookie year before they finally dumped him.  Zimmer got 450 after his rookie year.   Ernie Clement 250.  Heck, even Daniel Johnson got 89 ABs over 3 years before they called 4A player on him.  

Nolan Jones got 86 ABs in one year.  

But let's assume that 'they' are right and Jones will morph into Bradley Zimmer, offense-speaking.  Th

The problem is that all this thrashing and justification manufacturing doesn't account for one, simple thing.

Why trade Jones for a guy, Juan Brito, who the Rockies were looking to dump because they likely were not going to roster him ahead of the Rule 5.  Why make that trade and put Brito on the roster when he is likely to run out of minor league options before he even can legitimately reach the majors for good?

All this handwaving and rumor mongering about Jones being a 4A player and that we just didn't know it yet is a great reason to trade him.  No problem with that.

Just not trade him for a guy in Brito.  If Jones was going to have to be DFA'd or was a prospect who was going to have to be left exposed to the Rule 5, I get it.  Make the trade.  But that wasn't what SHOULD have been happening here, not after 86 big league ABs in his first cup of coffee.  

Look, it was a bad trade talent-wise to trade Jones for Brito.  Stop the posturing and call it what it was: The Guardians valued Brito more than Jones.  Just do that and, like Tobias Myers for Junior Caminero, in a year we can call BS on their player evaluation process and their ability to make these small trades.   Pretty sure that is what is going to happen here.  And, if Jones falls on his face, he still is more valuable than a guy who will probably end up getting most of his big league ABs for another team and not bring back much in return when we part ways wth him, assuming he even makes it to the majors.

This is how teams with an excess of young talent get burned.  They start, needlessly, giving away talent for less-than-reasonable returns.  Let's hope the Guardians take stock of what they have done and are more cautious in their future transactions.  

Thoughts for a Wednesday - pre-Thanksgiving edition

 1. Besides family and friends, I am thankful I have been able to spend my relaxation time watching the Guardians.  They are fun and a small blessing to all of us fans.

2. Looking at the return for one year of Hunter Renfroe two things come to mnd.  Why would the Brewers trade him?  Would we have wanted him at that price which may have been, translating to the Guardians farm system, as small as Eli Morgan and Hunter Gaddis?  Not saying I would have made that trade but it is certainly interesting to consider bringing in a 31-HR guy who can play RF, even if only for 1 year.

3. At the relatively small cost, would Joely Rodriguez have made sense for the Guardians?  I hope we do better than him in getting a second, quality lefty in the bullpen.

4. I am telling you, it really scares me that the Guardans are going to be making trades this winter.  My guess is that they give Zach Plesac away as it is obvious they get robbed in these 'small' deals all the time.

5. Given that the Guardians have taken the approach to not let draftees play in the minors the year they are drafted (with a couple of exceptions each year, of course), I can't really do an analysis of this year's draft.  Still, we can now talk about the 2020 and 2021 drafts as we have some data to talk about:

2020 - This was the truncated, 5-round,  pandemic year draft.  I currently rate this draft as an A-, which is surprising as our first round pick, Carson Tucker, may be playing himself out of professional baseball.  I know he has had injury issues but when I saw him play this year he looked very weak and overmatched AT LOW A BALL.  His defense looked shaky.  He basically looked like a 20th round pick.  The rest of this draft looks really solid although, right now, I don't see a single star emergng from this draft.  That beng said, Tanner Burns and Logan T. Allen look like solid pitching prospects and Mason Hickman may actually have some helium as a reliever.  The other HS position player prospects, Tolentino and Halpin, have both shown promise.  Bottom line: In a strong farm system to have 4 of your top 5 draftees be in your top 30 at this point is a really good sign and to have Hickman maybe moving fast as a reliever, this has the potential to be a really good draft down the road for the Guardians.

2021 - This is, of course, the college pitcher draft where 18 of the 21 picks were college pitchers.  It is too early to tell about some of these guys but Gavin Williams and Tanner Bibee are already top 10 prospects in our system and, currently at least, on a fast track to Cleveland.  Other college pitchers from this draft have had varying degrees of success with the jury on Nikhazy, Mace and Webb still beng out.  Plus Jake Fox, our lone HS position player drafted, looks like a keeper.  Even Connor Kokx looks like he could turn into the next Will Brennan.  In fact, at this point, none of these guys have shown themselves to be washouts or just organizational filler.  With possible conversions to the bullpen for a number of these guys and for already implemented bullpen conversions for some others, this draft stll has significantly more upside than it has shown in performance so far...and some of those performances, albeit from college pitchers in A ball, are eye-popping.  I give this draft an A with a chance to move into the uncharted "A+" territory in the next year or two if everything continues on the upswing.

2022 - Again, I hated this draft.  It wasn't, in my opinion, drafting for talent. It was very Moneyball-like where guys without the most talent were drafted because they fit the mold of Cleveland players who were CURRENTLY successful.  I have already made my mock draft piccks for this draft and I stick by them.  We will know more after the 2024 season as I anticipate most of these guys will spend all or the bulk of their season at high A ball.  If the Guardians surprise us and start some of these college hitters at AA and they perform out of the gate with a varied, quality skill set, I will reasses.  However, right now, I give this draft an on-paper grade of B- with a chance to go bust if the model they are drafting from falls flat on its face at the ML level in 2023.

And our non-tenders are...

I want to make one thing clear.  The Guardians' front office has been excellent over the past two years, especially with the cards they have been dealt.  

• Their rostering of 11 prospects last November was astute and gutsy.   I wrote that at the time. 
• Their incremental rostering of prospects during the season while removing the dead wood was excellent, as well, as they were simply using players who they intended to roster in the off-season to plug temporary gaps on the ML team during the season.  This was not a usual move as teams tend to plug these gaps with their veteran minor league signees.

This off-season I wrote that I thought they faltered a bit.  

• They traded the flame throwing Carolos Vargas for a much lesser prospect (in my opinion) in a move that cleared a roster spot
• They made a (in my opinion) ridiculous trade to obtain Juan Brito, who had to be rostered and will clog the 40-man for 3 years while burning all 3 of his minor league options leading to him either having to be on the 26 before he is ready or the organization giving up on him and DFAing or trading him for less than equal value because they have run out of those options.
• They rostered Tim Herrin over Peyton Battenfield (and probably prompted the trade of Vargas), although the former is just "all stuff, no performance" as he has only produced when his age is above league average. Twenty-six year old minor league relievers make the team as minor league invitees to spring training.  They don't take up a valuable roster spot in the winter as losing them to the Rule 5 is not generally not considered a great loss.  This move smacks of the gamble with Tobias Myers last year that failed miserably.

So, it was with great interest that I waited to see what they did at the non-tender deadline.  So, much to my dismay, they did, indeed, non-tender someone, Luke Maile.   This was, at first, frustrating to me as they could have just DFA'd him when they did the same to Gose and McCarty and saved a roster spot that we could have used to save Battenfield or Vargas.

Then it dawned on me.  If they want Maile back this move is actually a good one:

• DFAing Maile would mean he had to pass through waivers where another team could claim him even if he and the Guardians wanted to keep him.
• Non-tending Maile allows the team to negotiate with him as a free agent and roster him at any time between now and ST if they can work out a deal.  He also is not subject to the Rule 5, being a free agent and all. 

So, even though I dislike the idea of the Guardians losing other players just to keep their options open with a fungible asset like Maile (bad hit, veteran catchers are not hard to find), I get how it is a savvy move predictable for the executive of the year and his staff.

Not saying I like it as it is a treading water move and, in the short term, cost us a roster spot and forcing the team to make moves I don't agree with, I get that it is, at the moment it was done, a low-risk option that may give us some insurance on our catching situation if it is as I described above.

Still pissed over the Jones/Brito thing as I think the move was a terrible one both on paper in terms of talent and in process by what it does to our 40-man roster situation and how we likely get screwed out of the asset we obtained down the road 3 years.

However, I applaud the Maile non-tender.  It makes perfect sense to do it right now as it gives us flexibility with him if we need it, which I hope we don't, if we actually SOLVE the catching situation and not just try to put bandaids on it.

Now if we could just get our front office to not screw up any more trades this winter and get us Murphy, Puk, Abreu and maybe Haniger, we could call it a winter and look toward spring training with renewed excitement.

 

The case for keeping (or not) Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale

 OK, to switch gears, as thinking about the Nolan Jones trade continues to rankle me, let's talk one of the other conversations that is rattling around the hot stove league: do the Guardians need to get more starting pitching?

I know I could do weeks of research looking at but let's break it down simply in terms of WAR.  Plesac and Civale were so bad they each had a negative WAR (-0.8) 

So, the case could easily be made that we could do better.

But here's the rub.  In order to improve at the #4 and #5 starter we would have to give up assets in a trade or lots of money to a free agent.  

The question is, in Cleveland, is it worth it?

To me, the answer is no for 3 reasons:

• Civale and Plesac are the #4 and #5 starters.  They had career lows in WAR in 2022 so there should be some bounce-back this year, maybe into the 1-1.5 WAR range for each of them n 2023.  They are NOT Tanner Tulley, they are NOT Konnor Pilkington.  Civale and Plesac are seasoned starters, Cleveland veterans and will not make a lot of money in arbitration.  In fact, it is easy to assume that ONE starting pitcher who is a quality #4 starter acquired in free agency is likely to make more than both Plesac and Civale together. 
• We have guys in the minors on the way.  It is really possible that Battenfield (if not lost to the Rule 5), Xzavion Curry, Hunter Gaddis, Gavin Williams, Joey Cantillo, Logan Allen, Tanner Burns and Tanner Bibee could be ready around the all-star break next year.  Pilkington is always there as a stop gap until these guys are ready.
• We have more pressing needs that we need to apply resources (money, prospects) to, specifically at catcher and 1B/DH.  

Folks, this is not like collecting baseball cards.  Starting Aaron Civale as your #4 and Zach Plesac as your #5 does not kill this team and, with the limited resources we have and the fact that there are GAPING holes elsewhere that dwarf Plesac and Civale, my vote is that, especially with this FO, we don't apply resources to starting pitching.  

I say roll the dice and go with Plesac and Civale, knowing we have superior replacements on the way in case these two falter or get hurt.  

Congratulations, Terry, and some questions I am asking myself about the Nolan Jones Trade

First, congratulations to Terry Francona on being named the AL Manager of the Year.  Well deserved honor.  No one does more with less than Tito does.  I have truly lived through the greatest age in Cleveland baseball between the teams of the 1990s and the last decade with Terry Francona as our manager.  So, I consider myself lucky to be a Guardians' fan and I NEVER, EVER take that for granted because my heart is chasing that brass ring of a WS championship.  

Regarding the Nolan Jones trade I still have questions:

1. Why did that trade have to go down yesterday?   It looked like one of two things: (a) they valued Juan Brito more than the rest of baseball does and knew it was their best time to pounce on him or (b) they valued Jones so little that they felt they were getting a great deal by trading him for Brito, a one tool player at low A who will likely run out of minor league options before he reaches the majors.  

2. If we had enough left-handed hitting outfielders (I am assuming Antonetti is talking about Kwan, Brennan, Benson and Valera) why in the world did the Guardians draft 3 left-handed hitting outfielders in the first 5 rounds of the recent amateur draft?  It makes no sense.  You could have drafted excellent catchers and RH hitting outfielders and corner infielders and yet you spent all that draft capital drafting players that Antonetti said will have no chance because, like Jones, they are redundant.  And don't give me the "best player available" crap.  At every selection the Guardians have there are guys of close to equal value of who they actually drafted, especially in early rounds.

4. If Brito is so good, why did he not get a mid-season promotion this year?  Given that they had to make a decision on him this winter you guess they would have pushed him to higher level(s) during the season to see if he was worth  protecting.  But they didn't do that.  For comparison sake, Noel, Freeman, Valera, Arias and Rocchio all played at high A levels at a younger age than Brito did as part of their normal development and received mid-season promotions the year they played at low A.  .  

5. Do they really think Brito will make it the majors for good before he runs out of minor league options.  A normal development path would have Brito playing at Lake County in 2023, Akron in 2024 and Columbus in 2025, with a possible callup to Cleveland that year.  In 2026 he has to stay on the major league roster all year or be DFA'd.  

Everything that I read that Antonetti said today were good reasons for trading Nolan Jones.  But nothing that I read tells me why Jones had to be traded yesterday or why it had to be Brito and not someone who didn't have to be rostered right now.  Nor did he explain the contradictions of what he said about our glut of LH hitting outfielders we have now and why we drafted 3 more in the first 5 rounds of the draft this year.

As I have said before, losing Nolan Jones was not a problem.  It was losing him for Brito.  However, the most nagging question is if this is how they value their own prospects, how can we trust Antonetti and Chernoff to make good trades in the future?

So, Let's Look at Recent Cleveland Baseball Trades

 I have heard repeatedly how Cleveland is so good and wins their trades and read it as a justification fro the headscratching Nolan Jones trade.  So lets take a look at trades Cleveland has made over the last 4 years:  Highlighting in blue are trades we won, yellow are trades we lost, no highlighting are trades that turned out pretty much even in terms of what we got back compared to what we traded away.  Now you can argue that trades like the Lindor trades are "win" but I can argue that the Myles Straw trade, given his low batting average and Yainer Diaz's meteoric rise and Phil Maton's OK performance, could be viewed as "even".  So there can be some disagreement in my interpretations of win/lost/even.

Still, the evidence is as I thought: The Clevinger trade and Kluber salary dump are what people use to define Cleveland being good at making trades.  However, removing that remarkable trade where EVERY player Cleveland got back for Clevinger is ranging from useful major leaguer to good major leaguer/good prospect AND the Kluber trade because it brought us Clase and, in considering that both cases trades look better because the main player we traded got hurt right away, CLEVELAND GENERALLY SUCKS AT MAKING TRADES.  Eighteen trades, 4 clear wins (including Sandy Leon minor trade), 8 clear losses (including the Trevor Bauer trade), 6 even trades (including the Lindor trade). The data is right in front of you.  You can make your own decisions.  BTW, still pissed about the pathetic Nolan Jones trade.  I just hope to heck we don't make any more trades this winter because, looking at the trades below and considering the Jones and Vargas trades already this off-season, any trades these clowns make are likely to hurt this team in the short term or long term.  I have warned for awhile about how bad Antonetti and Chernoff are at making these "minor" trades.  Well, they are not much better at making larger trades, either.

1. Nolan Jones for Juan Brito (Lost in the short term)

2. Carlos Vargas for Ross Carver (Lost in the short term)

3. Bradley Zimmer for Anthony Castro (Even)

4. Tobias Myers for Junior Caminero (Lost)

5.Phil Maton and Yainer Diaz for Myles Straw (Won)

6. Jordan Luplow and DJ Johnson for Peyton Battenfield (Lost)

7. Cesar Hernandez for Konnor Pilkington (Even)

8. Eddie Rosario for Pablo Sandoval (Lost)

9. Francisco Lindor/Carlos Carrasco for Ahmed Rosario/Andres Gimenez/Josh Wolf/Isaiah Greene (Even)

10. Mike Clevinger/Greg Allen/Matt Waldron for Cal Quantrill/Josh Naylor/Gabriel Arias/Owen Miller/Joey Cantillo/Austin Hedges (Win)

11. Edwin Encarnacion/Yandy Diaz/Cole Sulser for Carlos Santana/Jake Bauers (Lost)

12. Corey Kluber for Clase/DeShields Jr. (Win)

13. Sandy Leon for Adenys Bautista (Win)

14. Mark Mathias for Andres Melendez (Unevaluable)

15. Trevor Bauer for Franmil Reyes/Logan Allen/Victor Nova/Scott Moss/Yasiel Puig (Loss)

16. Yan Gomes for Jefry Rodriguez/Daniel Johnson (Lost)

17. Walker Lockett for Ignacio Feliz (Even)

18. Jodan Luplow/Max Moroff for Erik Gonzalez/Dante Mendoza/Tahnaj Thomas (Even)

Antonetti and Chernoff, you are freakin' idiots and total incompetents at making trades

 Dear Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff,

You two are freakin' idiots.

Let's summarize the trade:

• You traded your #7 prospect (rated just outside the top 100 in all of baseball) who is on the roster and has ML experience at 3rd base, RF and a little at 1B and is a power hitter, something this organization is lacking.
• He wasn't taking up a needed roster spot and had a lot of potential
• You get back Colorado's #30 prospect:who:
• Colorado was tryng to trade because they didn't really want to protect a limited, low A player on their 40-man roster, meaning the Guardians should have had all the leverage in this deal
• played in low A this year meaning:
• He is likely 3+ years from the majors
• At that rate will have used up ALL his option years before he gets to the majors the first time, meaniing that if he is ever sent to the minors (usually happens to every young player at least once) he would have to be DFA'd at that time
• Creates a 'dead spot' on the roster for 3 years meaning that his spot on the 40-man will not be able to help the ML team during that time, hurting your team during that time.
• Is redundant to what we have already:
• He is another middle infielder
• He has no speed
• He is not a good defender
• He likely has little to no power

No way is this acceptable for your job title.  Hey, I disagreed with trading Carlos Vargas earlier in the day for a guy who won't help us this year like Vargas had the possibility of doing.  I disagreed with putting Tim Herrin on the 40-man over Peyton Battenfield because I think your experts are misreading both Battenfield's and Herrin's results and peripherals this year.   However, as I said in my last post, none of those moves is crucial to how the Guardians finish the next few years.  It just removed some depth and potential trading assets without anything of substance coming back.

But the trade of Nolan Jones for Juan Brito?   That makes no sense and DOES hurt our team now and for the next 3 years.  Jones immediately slots in as Colorado's #11 prospect, meaning not only have they traded up 19 spots they got a ML player who won't clog their roster and can help their ML team right away.  Colorado was trying to dump Brito as they didn't want a low A guy on their 40-man.  We had all the leverage in this trade but Colorado won this trade by a huge margin.  

This trade stinks.  There isn't one visible reason that this trade gets the Guardians a fair return.  They get screwed royally on this trade.   Hey, if Jones offended someone in the organization, I understand,  why you trade him.  But you get equal value back.  Not only did you OBVIOUSLY not get equal value back you screwed up your 40-man roster for 3 years and did not help your ML team at all for 3 years.  

No way is this acceptable and there are no excuses that you can make up that will convince anyone that you did not hurt your team today in essentially every move you made except for the obvious protecting of Martinez and Cantillo who, both, BTW, also clog your 40-man roster for at least 2 years.

I am disgusted with you two today.   Get off your asses and do your job better tomorrow.  Your past successes don't give you a pass to make monumental screwups like the Jones for Brito trade and you should have even done better earlier in the day with your 40-man roster.

First Thoughts On Today's Activity

 Carlos Vargas for Ross Carver

I don't understand this move at all.  The Guardians give up a guy who is on the brink of being a usable piece for the major league bullpen and they get back a 2oth AND LAST round pick from 2021 who had a 10.00 ERA in 9 starts at AA and has a 93-94 mph fastball.

Vargas can get it up to the plate at close to 100 mph.  What the hell?  Looks like another pathetic small trade at the deadline that will eat at us for years (see Tobias Myers trade).  

So Antonetti has proven he can't trade more experienced minor leaguers at the Rule 5 deadline and he has proven he can't trade FOR that kind of player.  

Perfect!  

I know Carver is the D-backs #23 prospect and I get that this relieves a little 40-man roster pressure but this move tells me the Guardians didn't think Vargas would help them in 2023.   So he shouldn't succeed with the D-backs this coming year, right?

On paper this doesn't seem anywhere like an equal trade in a year where it doesn't appear to me that we had a roster crunch if we get rid of Maile, Gose and Miller, none of whom are useful to this team in 2023 or easily replaceable. 

40-Man Roster 

Additions:

Angel Martinez

Joey Cantillo

Tim Herrin

Remove:

Anthony Gose

Kirk McCarty

Traded

Carlos Vargas

Analysis 

On the surface this is a mixed bag.  The obvious 2 guys that should have been added were added, Cantillo and Martinez.   

Gose should have been DFA'd as he is unlikely to pitch next year and we can re-sign him to a minor league deal if he passes through waivers (likely).  McCarty may be less likely to make it through waivers, given the guys we lost on waivers during the year (Call, Gibault, Jewell).  

I already mentioned that the trade made NO sense and it makes less sense now as we are essentially saying that we have more certainty that Tim Herrin can help us in 2023 than we did in Vargas helping us in 2023 and that we considered Vargas such a dispensible asset that we would trade him for a guy who had a 10.00 ERA in 3 starts at AA and was a 20th round draft pick in 2021.

As far as Tim Herrin, when looking at all the minor league relievers we COULD have protected, Herrin looks like about the 5th best, if you count Peyton Battenfield.  If our roster was not stacked I would have yawned at this move.  But rostering Herrin at the expense of Vargas is just stupid and, in fact, rostering him at the expense of McCarty, who has actually shown he can pitch in the majors, is not that much better.  

Leaving Battenfield unprotected is, as I said in a previous post, not the end of the world.  IF YOU DID SOMETHING GOOD WITH THAT ROSTER SPOT.  We didn't.   Battenfield being selected in the Rule 5 is almost a given, considering his history as a reliever in college and his early pro career and his success last year and the first half of this year, before he tired from the heaviest workload of his career.  The Guardans are supposed to have experts who see this stuff but I think they whiffed on this one.  He is more likely the guy we saw in 2021 if he is used as a starter and maybe an even better fit as a bullpen guy.   I can't imagine he makes it through the Rule 5 as SOME team will see what I see.  What the Guardians are seeing?  I don't know.

In the end there was very little that the Guardians could do to screw up the content of the roster, if they just protected Martinez and Cantillo.  However, they took full advantage of screwing up the edges of the 40-man roster with moves that are head scratchers.   Hopefully Herrin turns into something and Battenfield and Vargas don't come back to bite us in the butt like Junior Caminero is.   However, on paper, these moves just sucked.  When you are a low payroll team like the Guardians, you can't afford to throw assets away for nothing.  With last year (Myers) and this year (Vargas, Battenfield and, to a lesser extent, McCarty) they seem to be throwing away assets that I would have liked to hold onto and brought in or protected assets that are not, in my opinion, any more than organizational filler.

Today is the first day of the rest of the Guardians' Life

 Yeah, way overdramatic, to be sure.

This confluence of events (40-man roster lockdown, free agency opening, general manager meetings, hot stove rumors heating up) makes it feel like more than just another day.

Truth be told, little has to really happen today to make it acceptable:

• Adding Angel Martinez and Joey Cantillo to the 40-man (assuning Cantillo is not hurt so badly that he requires surgery or a long rehab that puts into question his addition to the 40-man) and the concomitant removal of Anthony Gose and Luke Maile.
• Don't make any more stupid Tobias Myers trades (BTW, Junior Caminero is the 18th ranked prospect for Tampa Bay in MLB Pipeline) just because "intriguing" prospects are available for trade today.

That's really it.   Hey, I think Petyon Battenfield has a chance to be a good ML pitcher, especially as a reliever, and I think his dip in velocity in the second half of the year was due to the biggest workload of his life in his first full season as a starting pitcher.  But if we lost him, it wouldn't be the end of the world as Guardians' fans know it.  Hey, maybe Tampa Bay would trade Caminero back to us if we don't intend to roster Battenfield.

All the things that I want to see happen don't have to happen today:

• Owen Miller being traded
• Sean Murphy being traded for
• Jose Abreu being signed
• Us acquiring a lefty reliever with some closer potential and at a reasonable prce

We just have to lock down the roster and Abreu has to remain unsigned and Murphy has to remain with the A's for this to be a good day.

Now, for it to be a GREAT day...

More once this day has settled down and we can look back at what has happened with the Guardians and around the league.  Have a good and peaceful day everyone.

Ya gotta love us bloggers!!!

 I saw a post by a San Diego Padres website about what his team would have to give up to get Sean Murphy in a trade.  It was a hilariously low cost, trading a .189 hitting centerfielder who Padres fans want to get rid of anyway and 3 middling prospects to get Murphy.  Typical stuff: you take guys we don't want for a guy everybody wants.

So, it made me think.  What are the bloggers saying about trade packages they think their team could put together to get Murphy.

San Diego

Trent Grisham (.189 hitting CFer, Gold Glove Winner),  sam Zavala (#4 SD prospect), Adam Mazur (#6 SD prospect), Jackson Wolf (soft tossing lefty not listed in Padres top 30 prospects.

Analysis - SD has only 2 prospects in MLB Pipeline's top 100 prospects in baseball and they rank #89 and #93.  Thus they have a weak system.  Grisham is a great fielder but what would the A's want with a .189 hitting CFer who is arbitration-eligble?  This sounds like the Padres dumping their mediocre excess on the A's.

Cardinals

Murphy and Nick Allen for Matthew Liberatore (#80 prospect in baseball), Nick Hence (#91 prospect in baseball) and Nolan Gorman.

Analysis:  This blogger did a worth vs salary projection analysis and his logic seems sound to me but remember, Mark Twain said there are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies and statistics.  Still, this is a reasonable package for Murphy, in my opinion.  I love Murphy but he improves a team incrementally that already has an average catcher (Andrew Kizner).  Plus, he is coming off a career year.   Liberatore and Gorman are coming off sub-par years in the majors and while highly rated, the A's are taking some risk in this trade.  Nevertheless, I think this is a fair trade for both teams.

Yankees

Oswald Peraza (SS, #3 Yankees prospect, #50 in baseball), Austin Wells (C, #5 Yankees prospect, #80 in baseball), Will Warren (RHP, #8 Yankees prospect), Elijah Dunham (OF, #19 Yankees prospect).

Analysis: This trade, on paper, looks pretty good for a rebuilding team.  You get an infielder, and outfielder, a catcher and a RHP pitcher, all of whom are good prospects both within their own system and within baseball.

Guardians

So, looking at the three trades above two of them represent reality of what Murphy is worth as the A's have to get that they are selling high on Murphy, who is coming off a career offensive year, and, after being burned at the deadline because their request was over-the-moon in terms of what a Murphy trade would bring back, 

So, looking at the packages above what would the Guardians have to give up to get Murphy?

OF: George Valera (#2 Guardians prospect, #31 in baseball)

IF: Brayan Rocchio (#4 Guardians prospect, #69 in baseball)

P: Gavin Williams (#3 Guardians prospect, #53 in baseball)

First, I think this beats the other 3 trades above hands down.  Second,this seems heavy compared to other trade proposals so I would have to get AJ Puk back in this trade, as well and throw in Owen Miller (preferred) or Richie Palacios to sweeten the deal for the A's.  Still, this would be a high price to pay for the Guardians who could just re-sign Maile or Hedges as a backup and throw Naylor in the fire and I would only do this if I could sign Jose Abreu and, maybe, Mitch Haniger.   Murphy and Puk simply do not bring us THAT much closer to the WS by themselves, especially not with what we are giving up, which is an importnat piece in 2024 (Williams) and potential 2023 pieces or trade chips (Rocchio and Valera).  However, with the other free agent additions I believe this team could compete for the WS next year if Haniger is healthy.  

So we will see what happens but with all the interest I see a Murphy trade happening sooner rather than later.  I don't know whether we will get Murphy but I hope we don't look at the players some other team trades for him and say to ourselves that we could have easily beaten that return.  

Long Game or Short Game?

That is always the question for teams in the off-season, isn't it?

Will your team go out and make a big splash by making the first big trade or first free agent signing of the winter?  

Teams last winter that went big 'early' (i.e., before the lockout) had some or all of their heavy lifting done before March.  Others, who routinely let the market develop (the Guardians seem to always fall in this category) were locked out (pun intended) from doing that.

So, in a 'normal' off-season, what will the Guardians do?

It comes down to what moves you want to make early and which ones you want to hold back on. Let's take a look at what the Guardians need to do now and what they can wait on.

FINALIZE THE 40-MAN ROSTER - SHORT GAME

This is definitely a short game situation as rosters have to be locked down by Nov. 15th in preparation for the Rule 5 draft in December.  So let's take a look at the roster situation and potential additions and subtractions:

The pool of prospects who both are eligible for the Rule 5 draft AND who are likely losses in that draft is as small this winter as ever.  The major reason for that is that the Guardians, knowing which players were locks to be protected this winter, brought those players to the majors during the season.  As a more secondary reason, the Guardians protected so many prospects (11) last winter there weren't a lot of guys left unprotected last year who had good seasons this year.  With the 40-man roster now full here are the things I think will happen over the next week

• The Guardians will protect: Angel Martinez, Joey Cantillo and Peyton Battenfield.    These three would likely be selections as they are high end prospects and could easily play in the majors this season for rebuilding teams.  Plus the brain trust should see that Battenfield was really in his second year as a starting pitcher in his career AND exceeded his previous high watermark of innings (103) with 153 innings.  It is easy to see how his drop in fastball velocity later in the season could be due to the increased workload.   Plus it is pretty easy to see how a team could draft Battenfield in the Rule 5 and place him in the bullpen, especially since he pitched exclusively in relief in college and a lot in his pro career..  
• Owen Miller, Anthony Gose and Luke Maile will either be traded or designated for assignment
• Prospects Ethan Hankins, Lenny Torres Jr., Alexfri Planez, all of our eligible minor league relievers will be left unprotected.
• Things that should NOT happen, but might, are Richie Palacios. Kirk McCarty, Bryan Lavastida, Will Benson and/or Konnor Pilkington being DFA'd.  While we have an abundance of prospects and young players you just don't give away good prospects for nothing.   Guys like Miller, who have failed multipl opportunities, Gose, who likely won't pitch in 2022 or Maile, who plays at replacement level, make sense.  Prospects who haven't shown their true ceiling make much less sense to just discard, especially when you have just added them to the 40 man this year and they have performed at acceptable levels in the majors, and minors, so far.

Just doing these things by Tuesday will give the Guardians breathing space to play the long game in other areas. 

FREE AGENT SIGNINGS - SHORT GAME AND LONG GAME

While we don't normally see the Guardians get involved in early free agent frenzy, I anticipate that this year will be the exception.  The Guardians need to be aggressive to get the starting position players they need and the ideal players they want may be gone if they don't act and don't act aggressively.  At the same time, given the contracts being given out to relievers, I see the Guardians going bargain basement/late in this area similar to what they did last year.  FOr the first time in my memory, the Guardians don't really need to add many minor league free agents except for relievers and a catcher or two as they will have plenty of rookies already on the 40 man who will be at AAA and can be brought up to fill spots on the roster if injuries pop up.  Note that any free agent signing(s) may result in a player on the 40-man being DFA'd as the roster should be full after Nov. 15th.  That is a concern to me as you don't like to lose prospects for nothing just to sign free agents.

TRADES - LONG GAME

I don't think that the player they might go after (Sean Murphy) will be traded any time soon as I see the A's letting a bidding war develop into and maybe past the winter meetings in December.  I am pretty sure we will see a lot more trading this winter than last winter for the Guardians as they attempt to cash in on their glut of quality major leaguers to get quality, controllable assets like Murphy.  This will also lose guys off the 40 man which, in turn, will allow more flexibility in other free agent signings and additions to the roster during the season, if needed (e.g., Gavin Williams, Logan Allen, Tanner Bibee or Daniel Espino).  It will be surprising if the Guardians make any trade before January 2023 as they may wait for teams to come back to reality about how their tradeable assets are actually valued on the market compared to what they THINK their own players are worth.

And we're off and running

 The free agent frenzy is off and running.  

• Teams are massaging their 40-man roster in preparation for Tuesday's deadline.  
• Fringe players/prospects are changing hands, some through trades but most through the waiver wire.
• Options are being executed or refused
• General managers are meeting and, at the very least, setting the groundwork for trades at the upcoming winter meetings next month.
• Starting today free agents and all teams can start having financial discussions and exchanging figures.
• MLB Trade Rumors suggests that JD Martinez may end up with the Guardians, acknowledging that it is not really a good fit.
• MLB Trade Rumors also suggests that Jose Abreu might be had for 2 years, $30 million.   I am thinking we get him for 3 years + 2 option years ($18, $16, $14, with options for $12 million and $10 million with $1 million buyouts for each option year).  Total of $50 million guaranteed).  Expensive but I think he is a major key to our success. He fits so well at 1B, which he wants, as a right handed power hitter, as a professional hitter and as a clubhouse guy.   I think you overpay for him somewhat and hope his power comes back which, to me, is where he becomes a bargain. He also takes the pressure off of Naylor playing every day.
• MLBTR also says Mitch Haniger may get 3 years at $39 million.   I would give him 3 years (($14,13, 13) with two option years at $12 million with $1 million buyouts) for a total of $42 million guaranteed.
• Obviously the Cardinals will be in the market for catching (Molina retired) so Sean Murphy could be in play for them.  Just hope the Guardians jump on that deal.  The only way they don't make that deal is if they are willing to commit to Bo Naylor for the entire year next year.   The roster doesn't work with placeholders for when Naylor is ready and his history shows that he would need anohter 1/2 at AAA to be minimally ready for the majors.
• Wow, the Edwin Diaz and Robert Suarez (and maybe an upcoming Nick Martinez) deals shows what a great bargain we got with Clase.  No amount of rationalization of us paying him excess in his pre-arbitration years makes up for his performance vs those of these two (three) and what they are being paid, relievers being so up and down with year-to-year performance.  I don't get these cotracts but I want to say that while these contracts may make us feel better about the bargain for Clase, they can cause the Guardians nothing but grief going forward, both in our relatonship with Clase and in our upcoming (this year and next) arbitrations with Karinchak, Hentges, Stephan, etc.  I fail to remember enough that good, young, cheap players too soon become good, young, expensive players and that you really can't have a WS-competitive team full of arbitration/long-term contracts unless you are willing to go to a payroll at least $120 million.
• Hard to believe that Franmil Reyes was DFA'd again and that Bobby Bradley doesn't have a job for next year.   Shows again tenuous nature of young position player performance, not even mentioning young pitching/performance/injuries 

What if you had $30 million a year for the next 3 years to spend on free agents?

 Let's say that the Guardians see what I see: the window to contention is wide open and now if the time to spend money.  New minority partner, cheap roster, coming off the best season in years.

That really means two things:

(1) Don't trade players (e.g., Rosario and Beiber) just because they are getting expensive and approaching free agency.

(2) Dive feet first into the free agent market as now would represent 'the right time' to do that when we have been told up to this point that no time in the recent past was that 'right' time.

Going through the arbitration process with Rosario, Beiber, Naylor, Quantrill, Karinchak and even Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale (more on this in an upcoming post) should be a given and, in my mind, totally disconnected from free agent spending.  Although that is not how it is likely to be looked upon by the Guardians it is, to me, the cost of doing business for a competitive team.

So, then, the premise of this post is that you and I, as paper tiger GMs, have $90 to spend on free agents spread out over the next 3 years with the goal being to get as much value possible to help this club compete.

Looking through the available free agents here is what I am thinking on how to spend that money, some of which you have heard from me before.

Goal #1: Sign Jose Abreu to a 3 year free agent contract with two option years:

2023: $19 million

2024: $16 million

2025: $13 million

2026: $10 million club option with a $1 million buyout

2027: $10 million club option with a $1 million buyout

So, out of our $90 million I have spent $48 million, leaving $52 million

Goal #2: Sign Mitch Haniger to play RF

2023: $10 million

2024: $11 million

2025: $12 million

2026: $15 million

2027: $14 million club option ($1 million buyout)

2028: $13 million club option ($1 million buyout)

I know this is an unpopular one but I think if Hanger is available, which I doubt as I don't see him coming to Cleveland from Seattle (maybe NY if they lose Aaron Judge, but not Cleveland), he is a clear veteran upgrade over Gonzalez and allows us to use Gonzalez as trade bait and sell high.  We also increase our projected power numbers as I don't see Gonzalez delivering more HR/AB next year compared to this year.  .

Now we are up to $82 million of our $90 in free agent capital for the next 3 years

We have $8 million left.  I have looked through all the other available free agents and our roster and I don't see a fit unless we sign a lefty reliever.   Still there I don't see a real fit and I would rather add a quality, controllable power lefty via a trade (see my Murphy/Puk trade proposal).  Also, we could wait until the deadline to spend that $8 million in a selloff trade with a team that is out of contention at that point.

So, there it is.  Not really heavy into the free agent market. No free agent catchers, not even Hedges, as I think he is too expensive for what he brings to the field.  If we have re-sign Hedges that is a real negative for this club, unless we sign him to a minor league deal with an opt out in May.  

Next up - A real, hard look at the roster: who should be here and who should go before spring training starts.

A way too early look at our record next year

 OK, we are REALLY into the off-season if I am doing a posting like this.  But, with the revised schedule, I was thinking our record would likely not be as good next year.  So I did a projection.  Here goes:

1. @Seattle 1-3    2. @Oakland 3-0    3. Seattle 1-2    4. NY Yankees 1-2    5. @Washington 2-1   

 6.@Detroit 2-1    7. Miami 2-1    8. Colorado 3-0    9. @Boston 1-2   10. @ NY Yankees 0-3

11. Minnesota 2-1    12. Detroit 3-0    13. LA Angels 2-1    14. @White Sox 1-2 15. @Mets 0-3

16. White Sox 2-1    17. St. Lous 2-1    18. @ Baltimore 0-3    19.@Minnesota 2-2    20. Boston 2-1  

21. Houston 1-2    22. @ San Diego 1-2    23. @Arizona 2-1    24. Oakland 3-0    25. Milwaukee 2-1

26. @KC 2-1    27. @ Chicago Cubs 2-1    28. Atlanta 1-2    29. KC 3-1    30. @Texas 1-2

31. @Pittsburgh 3-0    32. Philadelphia 1-2    33. KC 3-0    34. @Chicago WS 1-3    35. @Houston 0-3

36. Chicago WS 2-1    37, Toronto 2-2     38. @Tampa Bay 1-2    39. @Cincinnati 2-0    40. Detroit 3-1

41. LA Dodgers 1-2    42. @Toronto 1-2    43. @Minnesota 1-2    44. Tampa Bay 2-1    45. Minn 2-1

46. LA Angels 2-2    47. San Francisco 3-0    48. Texas 2-1    49. @KC 2-1    50. Baltimore 2-2

51. Cincinnati 2-0    52. @Detroit 3-0

If you total that all up it comes out to be 91-71.

So, if I did this math correctly, we essentially will have the same record as this year.  While we won't be playing KC and Detroit as much, we will be playing other rebuilding teams more and so it looks like it will balance out.  Whether the White Sox and Twins do better with this schedule than we do is another question entirely.  

Obviously, a lot can change before and during the 2023 season that can impact our 2023 results. Trades and free agent signings this winter, injuries next year, underperformance, overperformance, rookie prospects coming out of nowhere, career minor leaguers having a career year.  All of these can change the landscape not only for the Guardians but for their opponents.  Facing a team that is not a contender but who is hot when you play them or catching a contender in a slump when you play them can also skew the results.  That being said, I feel that these things all average out during the season and so the projections above have a good chance (NOT a certainty) of holding up in general, if not specifically as predicted above.

Thoughts for a Wednesday - 11/2/2022 Edition

 1) Congrats to the Guardians for their 4 Golden Glove awards.   There was a lot that went into this but here are the keys that I think led to this. The Guardians prioritized Rosario at SS and Straw, with his contract extension, in CF.  This led to them being able to put Kwan in LF and Gimenez at 2B.   Kwan can play CF and Gimenez was touted as a slick-fielding SS.  Thus, Kwan and Gimenez were set to become above average at their positions which have evolved in the majors to be offense-first positions.  While I won't say LF and 2B are defensive black holes, the competition for Gold Gloves at those positions is less than at SS, CF, 3B and catcher.  Then Kwan and Gimenez produced offensively, making them solid starting players, giving them more reps than if they were light-hitting players.   Not to minimize the defense Gimenez and Kwan played, which was fantastic, but if you can have a SS play 2B and a CFer play LF, your defense is going to be pretty good.  As far as Bieber, fielding awards are n the eye of the beholder.  I saw him as being solid but the analytics and the naked eye of voters said he was much better than that.  As far as Straw, he could be the best defensive centerfielder I have ever seen.

Being able to have defensive-minded players play offense-first positions and still produce offensively at a high level is one important way to build a solid, competitive major league roster. 

2) I am not rooting for either team in the WS but the Phillies leading this series is problematic for me as it reinforces two things I don't want reinforced (a) if you get into the playoffs anything can happen and (b) bringing in high-priced players is the way to go to win the WS.  

I think (a) causes teams to make bad trades at the deadline whereas (b) causes teams to overpay for free agents, both in dollars and years.   Both of these are really death to small market teams like Cleveland and it is how teams in those markets end up going into long, painful rebuilds.

Hey, I am not saying that the model I want to see emulated is having the Tampa Bays of the world win the WS.  I think that model is bad as it gives cheap owners the ammunition to continue to be cheap and, somehow, expect their management to build good teams from spare parts.

I am for organic growth followed by selective addition of quality people who are also good veterans.  Basically, this is the model the Indians employed in the mid-90s to go from a good, young team to a WS contender.  In fact, the Houston (cough! cheaters! cough!) roster is more along the lines of how I think a roster should be built.  

So, as much as I hate to root for cheaters...Go Astros!

3) I will talk in depth about our minor league players later but right now the two position players we need to make huge jumps next year are George Valera and Brayan Rocchio.  I think the Guardans' management team is smart enough to know that neither of these two are at their highest trade value and that selling low on them would be a mistake.  I don't know if it is a good thing but Valera, Rocchio, Tena and Martinez are playing winter ball.  I guess it can't hurt to get that extra experience and hopefully it translates into hot starts next year at Columbus and important contributions to the Guardians major league team next year.

4) I am a little concerned that I haven't heard anything about Nolan Jones.  I hope he, along with Will Benson and Tyler Freeman are still being prioritized as important assets by the Guardians.  With the wealth of riches in prospects the Guardians have it would be easy to see the warts on their games and just consider them second-rate prospects.  I think Jones and Benson are still on the steep upward part of their development.  Freeman was the top prospect in our postion this past winter and had most of his 2022 season lost to getting back to form from his shoulder surgery.  I am for holding onto these guys this winter as I think throwing them into trades would be selling way too low.  

5) Talking about Gold Gloves, Christian Walker's Gold Glove goes not impress me.  In fact, I think it is more piling on for the sucker's bet that bringing him in via trade will be.  He is a soon-to-be 32 year old who had a career year at 31.  As I said, a sucker's bet that I don't want to be part of.  Bring on Jose Abreu!

6) Sean Murphy or Bo Nayler?  I still am prioritizing Murphy.  The odds that Naylor could be the next Francisco Mehia or Carson Kelly is just too great for me.  Hey, Bo Naylor could turn out to be great.  In this case, the bird in the hand, given where we are as a franchise, is worth SOOO much more that the two in the bush.