Monday, November 7, 2022

What if you had $30 million a year for the next 3 years to spend on free agents?

 Let's say that the Guardians see what I see: the window to contention is wide open and now if the time to spend money.  New minority partner, cheap roster, coming off the best season in years.

That really means two things:

(1) Don't trade players (e.g., Rosario and Beiber) just because they are getting expensive and approaching free agency.

(2) Dive feet first into the free agent market as now would represent 'the right time' to do that when we have been told up to this point that no time in the recent past was that 'right' time.

Going through the arbitration process with Rosario, Beiber, Naylor, Quantrill, Karinchak and even Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale (more on this in an upcoming post) should be a given and, in my mind, totally disconnected from free agent spending.  Although that is not how it is likely to be looked upon by the Guardians it is, to me, the cost of doing business for a competitive team.

So, then, the premise of this post is that you and I, as paper tiger GMs, have $90 to spend on free agents spread out over the next 3 years with the goal being to get as much value possible to help this club compete.

Looking through the available free agents here is what I am thinking on how to spend that money, some of which you have heard from me before.

Goal #1: Sign Jose Abreu to a 3 year free agent contract with two option years:

2023: $19 million
2024: $16 million
2025: $13 million
2026: $10 million club option with a $1 million buyout
2027: $10 million club option with a $1 million buyout

So, out of our $90 million I have spent $48 million, leaving $52 million

Goal #2: Sign Mitch Haniger to play RF

2023: $10 million
2024: $11 million
2025: $12 million
2026: $15 million
2027: $14 million club option ($1 million buyout)
2028: $13 million club option ($1 million buyout)

I know this is an unpopular one but I think if Hanger is available, which I doubt as I don't see him coming to Cleveland from Seattle (maybe NY if they lose Aaron Judge, but not Cleveland), he is a clear veteran upgrade over Gonzalez and allows us to use Gonzalez as trade bait and sell high.  We also increase our projected power numbers as I don't see Gonzalez delivering more HR/AB next year compared to this year.  .

Now we are up to $82 million of our $90 in free agent capital for the next 3 years

We have $8 million left.  I have looked through all the other available free agents and our roster and I don't see a fit unless we sign a lefty reliever.   Still there I don't see a real fit and I would rather add a quality, controllable power lefty via a trade (see my Murphy/Puk trade proposal).  Also, we could wait until the deadline to spend that $8 million in a selloff trade with a team that is out of contention at that point.

So, there it is.  Not really heavy into the free agent market. No free agent catchers, not even Hedges, as I think he is too expensive for what he brings to the field.  If we have re-sign Hedges that is a real negative for this club, unless we sign him to a minor league deal with an opt out in May.  

Next up - A real, hard look at the roster: who should be here and who should go before spring training starts.

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