Friday, November 4, 2022

A way too early look at our record next year

 OK, we are REALLY into the off-season if I am doing a posting like this.  But, with the revised schedule, I was thinking our record would likely not be as good next year.  So I did a projection.  Here goes:

1. @Seattle 1-3    2. @Oakland 3-0    3. Seattle 1-2    4. NY Yankees 1-2    5. @Washington 2-1   

 6.@Detroit 2-1    7. Miami 2-1    8. Colorado 3-0    9. @Boston 1-2   10. @ NY Yankees 0-3

11. Minnesota 2-1    12. Detroit 3-0    13. LA Angels 2-1    14. @White Sox 1-2 15. @Mets 0-3

16. White Sox 2-1    17. St. Lous 2-1    18. @ Baltimore 0-3    19.@Minnesota 2-2    20. Boston 2-1  

21. Houston 1-2    22. @ San Diego 1-2    23. @Arizona 2-1    24. Oakland 3-0    25. Milwaukee 2-1

26. @KC 2-1    27. @ Chicago Cubs 2-1    28. Atlanta 1-2    29. KC 3-1    30. @Texas 1-2

31. @Pittsburgh 3-0    32. Philadelphia 1-2    33. KC 3-0    34. @Chicago WS 1-3    35. @Houston 0-3

36. Chicago WS 2-1    37, Toronto 2-2     38. @Tampa Bay 1-2    39. @Cincinnati 2-0    40. Detroit 3-1

41. LA Dodgers 1-2    42. @Toronto 1-2    43. @Minnesota 1-2    44. Tampa Bay 2-1    45. Minn 2-1

46. LA Angels 2-2    47. San Francisco 3-0    48. Texas 2-1    49. @KC 2-1    50. Baltimore 2-2

51. Cincinnati 2-0    52. @Detroit 3-0

If you total that all up it comes out to be 91-71.

So, if I did this math correctly, we essentially will have the same record as this year.  While we won't be playing KC and Detroit as much, we will be playing other rebuilding teams more and so it looks like it will balance out.  Whether the White Sox and Twins do better with this schedule than we do is another question entirely.  

Obviously, a lot can change before and during the 2023 season that can impact our 2023 results. Trades and free agent signings this winter, injuries next year, underperformance, overperformance, rookie prospects coming out of nowhere, career minor leaguers having a career year.  All of these can change the landscape not only for the Guardians but for their opponents.  Facing a team that is not a contender but who is hot when you play them or catching a contender in a slump when you play them can also skew the results.  That being said, I feel that these things all average out during the season and so the projections above have a good chance (NOT a certainty) of holding up in general, if not specifically as predicted above.

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