A few thoughts as we head into Rule 5 Day
- PREDICTION: This R5 draft is going to be a blood bath for the Guardians. They will likely have 3 players drafted away from them in the ML portion. I think 3 is solid but more than that could be possible if teams see relief prospects that they value. Normally it is the Yankees who are hit hard but some of that comes from Yankees guys being taken early and it just snowballing. That might happen to Cleveland this year. It is pretty easy to predict that this will be the most damaging Rule 5 drafts ever for the Guardians. The minor league portion is a big question mark but I would think 2-3 would be a reasonable number and, given how flat our talent level is in our farm system, it may be guys you don't even suspect would be available in the minor league portion as we may simply run out of room to protect guys on the Columbus reserve list.
- IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER: The Guardians have been really, really good at protecting prospects who might be taken in the Rule 5. Aside from losing Kevin Kelly, who is a prototypical middle relief guy, they haven't lost much in the recent past, with the last significant player lost being Anthony Santander, who was lost as an unlikely selection (injured, low A ball player in 2016). Aside from minmizing their losses in the R5, they have also recently made some surprising and shrewd additions to their roster on the freeze day and those players (Cade Smith and Tim Herrin) have payed big dividends almost right away. In the last 2 years they left other, high profile prospects available and those prospects were either not taken in the R5 or were returned to the Guardians. Yes, Oscar Gonzalez would have been picked in 2021 if there had been a R5 draft, but they did protect a number of guys that year who would likely have been picked. In addition to minimizing Rule 5 losses, the Guardians have also made some recent quality R5 draft picks. Trevor Stephan turned out to be a very astute pick. Deyvison De Los Santos, who is flirting now with being one of the top prospects in all of baseball, was their pick last year although they had to return him this past spring to keep Esteban Florial. So, while their evaluation process for major league hitters may be in question, we should have some faith that they know what they are doing in protecting and picking in the Rule 5. History has shown that!
- BAD ASSET MANAGEMENT - That being said, protecting Petey Halpin over Ryan Webb makes no sense. Halpin was not the profile of a ML R5 draft pick. Webb was (see Mitch Spence the A%1 overall R5 pick from 2023). Heck, continuing to protect Will Brennan, who is either too stubborn or too incapable of making changes that will up him from his current AAAA player status, instead of Aaron Davenport is almost as big a travesty. There is a great deal of angst for me leaving exposed to the Rule 5 a number of high draft pick and/or high performing, 2021-drafted, polished college pitchers who likely can pitch in the majors in 2025. Developing this many talented arms and leaving them dangling as Rule 5 fodder screams to me: POOR ASSET MANAGEMENT PLAN. It is pretty likely that this poor planning will end up with them losing significant prospect(s) in the Rule 5.
- GEORGE VALERA - Maybe I am wrong but I truly believe that he is Rule 5 eligible. I doubt he gets selected as teams could have had him for free with no Rule 5 strings attached after the Guardians released him. However, any minor leaguer on the reserve list of a team who is Rule 5 eligible based on service time can be drafted in the Rule 5. Valera is not an exception. If he was, more teams would try to use that loophole. So, when he doesn't get selected, realize why that is the case.
More tonght as I explore Cleveland's history in the Rule 5 and then tomorrow morning as I detail the Rule 5 results and the meaning of those results as it applies to the Guardians. Until then, keep your fingers crossed and hope Oakland, the White Sox and Colorado have full 40 man rosters by tomorrow morning.
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