Old rant from an old guy

 You know, life is too short to troll.   But if I was going to troll someone/group I would troll these beat writers from one of the many on-line publications that cover other ML teams.  

A typical post goes like this:  "_________(insert name of player they think they can steal from the Indians) is a player our team should go after in a trade.   The Indians are looking to trade ________ (insert "pitching" or "hitting") and we have ___________ (insert name of old, broken down, overpaid or injured player).   This trade makes sense since the Indians are _______ (insert euphemisms meaning "cheap" or "stupid"),   I think the Indians would go for this trade and I think ______ (insert name of the writer's team)  would go for it."

These trade proposals are similar to the Jack taking a handful of beans for the family cow.   Although that turned out well for Jack, normally if it looks on the surface like you are getting ripped off, you are probably getting ripped off.

I did find one exception, though.   One of the guys who writes for a Red Sox blog suggested:

Andrew Benitendi plus another player for Zach Plesac.  On the surface that sounds like something an equivalently hacky writer for an Indians blog might suggest.    I know that Benitendi is hurt and may not help this year but it at least makes some sense from my perspective...as an Indians fan who would love to rip off the Red Sox...I mean, make a fair trade with another AL competitor. 

But in reality, I don't know what a good trade would look like for the Indians.   I will mention a couple of thoughts on the subject:

1. The Indians are so high on Triston McKenzie that I hope they don't trade him.   The buzz coming out of extended spring training was palpable regarding McKenzie and I think that they would not be selling high enough if they trade him now.   This guy is not Paul Rigdon.  He is the real deal.  If you got excited about Adam Plutko you were dreaming.   Getting excited about McKenzie seems like a more worthwhile use of time.

2. Trading Clevinger or Plesac makes no sense.   Watching these guys pitch and looking at our competitors' rotations tells me that, while these guys have good intrinsic value, just having the two of them plus Civale, Beiber and McKenzie means we would be in most games if those 5 stayed healthy every year.   Plus they are inexpensive for years to come.  You can build a team around free agency, especially this winter, if you have the rotation and a number of solid bullpen guys.  

3.There is never a better time to trade prospects.  If they come back to bite you in the butt it will be further down the road.   Plus our prospects have a lot of warts.  Take the hyped Nolan Jones, for example.   His splits, which seem pretty extreme to me for a polished guy like him, seem to indicate that he could easily slide into being a platoon player rather than a star down the road.   I think this year is a great time to sell high on most prospects and, except for McKenzie, on EVERY Indians propsect to get controllable guys back who can help the team this year and next year.   

So, there you have it.  Now you have to excuse me as I am going out looking for blog writers for other teams who are proposing stupid trades trying to rip off the pathetic Cleveland Indians who are so stupid they would be willing to take that bag of beans for a prize Hoffer..  

Drastic changes...and immediately

 Look, we are sputtering.  Yeah, we are above .500  and unless we suddenly go winless in a bunch of games it looks like we can make the playoffs.

But we are better than that.  We are almost halfway through the season and we need to make changes to reach our potential

Lindor goes back to leading off, Clevinger and Plesac come out of exile, Carrasco and Plutko go to the bullpen, the young, unproductive players go back to the minors, Leone looks for employment elsewhere.

So here is what we need to to:

1. We need to change the batting order right now:

Lindor

Hernandez

C. Santana

Reyes

Ramirez

D. Santana

R. Perez

Naquin/Luplow

DeShields

Commentary: I am not happy with this lineup and it needs to have guys replaced (see below).  Look, Lindor is a leadoff hitter.   He got three consecutive hits in this series when he hit with the bases empty.  When Hernandez hit the leadoff  homerun today it was the first time we scored in the first inning in 13 games.   Lindor isn't doing it at 3, he needs to move the leadoff and we need to do the other things described below.

2. We need to redo the rotation:

Beiber

Civale

Clevinger

Plesac

McKenzie

Commentary: We don't have time to fix Plutko and Carrasco.   Send them to the bullpen where Plutko provides length and Carrasco can leverage his stuff in shorter stints and, if he still struggles, we have guys to do the job without him and, if a starter gets hurt, he can slide back into a starter's role.  Plus, if we make the playoffs we likely will not need McKenzie in the rotation and he might just slide into the bullpen where his stuff might play up significantly, if that is even possible based on his start last night.

3. We need to redo the bullpen:

Send to minors: L. Allen

Release: Leone

Commentary: It is tough to put Logan Allen in this position.   He needs to pitch whereas Plutko needs to stay on the club.   Leone was a stretch from the beginning and he shows why he has had a high ERA most of his career.

New bullpen:

Hand

Karinchak

Wittgren

O. Perez

Cimber

Hill

Maton

Plutko

Carrasco

Commentary: If we can catch lightning in a bottle with Carrasco this could be one of the most dominant bullpens in baseball, which is all we would need if our starters could perform.

4. Trade Nolan Jones, Daniel Johnson and Nick Sanlin for Whit Merrifield making the everyday lineup:

Lindor

Hernandez

Merrifield

Santana

Ramirez

Reyes

D. Santana

R. Perez

Naquin/Luplow

5. Trade for an offensive minded, right handed hitting utility infielder rental who can play short or second and send Chang to the minors.

6. I don't like the idea of renting a bat but if we can get one cheap I would be for replacing the Naquin/Luplow platoon with a quality right field rental.   Depending upon the offense and if he is healthy, I could also see Merrifield replacing D. Santana or the platoon of Naquin/Luplow and having DeShields in centerfield.

This team needs drastic changes.  Time to make them now.

The wheels in my head are turning

So, this Saturday Triston McKenzie makes his major league debut.   Hmmmm!?!

There are lots of ways the Indians could have filled this space in the rotation including the obvious: Logan Allen as the opener, bring up a guy or two from the minors to give you length.    

There are some obvious reasons, all of which were well delineated by Carl Willis, for McKenzie to be the choice.

Don't get me wrong.   I am tickled that this is the choice.  I am a prospect-first guy.  I think the buzz has been that McKenzie is on point with his stuff right now.

I do have to ask (cue conspiracy theory-supporting music) is there more to this than meets the eye?

With the trading deadline approaching and the Indians likely seeing themselves as buyers of bats and maybe a bullpen arm AND the alternate site being somewhat of a black hole as far as scouting information goes, what better way to increase the value of your prospects then to give them a non-Super 2-invoking cup of coffee in the bright sunlight (or night-time stadium light) to up their value.   This wouldn't nearly be the first time this has been done close to the trading deadline.

Or, maybe the Indians are hoping to catch lightning in a bottle with McKenzie, making their (potentially) non-repentant youngsters (or grown-ass men, if you wish) expendable.  Trading a young, controllable starting pitcher with major league experience (and recent success) who teams have had a good chance to see this year would net you more in return than trading McKenzie, with his injury and inexperience baggage.

Or maybe it is to show Clevinger and Plesac that, no, we don't need them because their replacement has shown up and, as a result, shock some reality back into these guys IF, and I repeat, IF, they are still singing the tune of 'We didn't do anything wrong and I don't know why people are being mean to us"

It's hard to tell what the reason is but I doubt that it is because they just think McKenzie gives them the best chance of winning.  

So, excited as heck to see McKenzie tomorrow night....and waiting for the other shoe to drop..

Say it ain't so, Joe!

 OK, the last couple of days have been really interesting...and concerning.

So, Oliver Perez said he would opt out if Clevinger and Plesac were reinstated to the active roster.

Was that right away or if they are reinstated at all this season?

If that is true how can Oliver Perez and Plesac and Clevinger ever be on the same roster ever again?

Perez is a smart guy, I am sure.   If he truly threw down the gauntlet like that I would be surprised.   Hey, do your due diligence by keeping the guys at Lake County until their 10 day minimum in the minors is done.  I get that.   

However, you keep them in the minors any longer than that and all the conspiracy theorists will come out of the woodwork and say it is just the owners being cheap and finding ways to hold onto players on the cheap longer  

So here is the dilemma:  Do you keep Clevinger and Plesac or do you keep the 38 year old Perez?  Or, do you trade Clevinger and/or Plesac and probably not get good value, likely injure your chances at competing this year and not help your chances in future years.  

So, the Indians had a dilemma.   If Oliver Perez threw down a demand that he would opt out if Clevinger and Perez were brought back this season, then Perez needs to be talked to.

Hey, I get that this is serious.   I also get that this is about their attitude as well as their actions.  I get that these guys are throwing gasoline on the fire and that Perez is adding his own accelerant.  However, this is also a business.   

You can dump these guys and get an unfairly low return on prinicple.  But that makes no business sense unless they are unsalvageable.

From a purely business standpoint, purely business, mind you, if you have to choose between two young starters under team control for several years and a 38-year old yearly deal guy like Perez, if Perez REALLY did make a demand to keep them out for an extended period of time, you have to trade Perez.  Again, all emotion aside, Perez can't put his team in this situation...if he truly did present that ultimatum, 

Plus, the Indians can't be seen as trying to leverage the pandemic and MLB rules on it to gain a financial advantage of keeping these players for longer or cheaper than they should be kept.

And this from the guy who values prospects above all else!!!!!

OK, this season can go one of three ways:

A. We do enough to win it all

B. We don't do anything and this season is disappointing

C. We do something, or we don't do anything, and the season is cancelled at some point due to Covid-19.

As has been said already, this is the most dangerous trade deadline in history...for all teams in contention.  

Given that backdrop, the Indians need hitting and could use a little insurance in the bullpen...or a minor leaguer like Nick Sandlin needs to step up.

So how we do navigate this tough time with the needs we have.

First, if you want to trade assume you are going to give up one or both of Nolan Jones and Triston McKenzie.  

Second, if you do this properly you won't be trading for rent-a-players.   The threat of a season cancellation due to the pandemic is too great to risk prospects, even middling prospects, on a guy who might not get to play any meaningful games for your team.  

Third, with 16 teams in the playoffs it is very likely there will be less sellers at the deadline.   Thanks you Captain Obvious!!!

If you are on board with these premises and projecting what it was thought that teams would do at the beginning of the year, here are possible trades we could do:

Triston McKenzie and Daniel Johnson to the Royals for Whit Merrifield.   This seems like a lot for Merrifield but it is 3+ years of Merrifield and he is versatile and should be productive for all those years.  Plus by the time the Royals are competitive again Merrifield will be nearing the end of his contract.   Maybe we can get them to throw in Scott Barlow.  

Kyle Seager for Nolan Jones.   This fit is a little worse.  Seager is a third baseman and we have one.  We could DH him or Ramirez but that would put Reyes in the outfield and Seager and Ramirez might not like being the DH.    Plus Seager has a hefty contract of $18 million next year and would have a player option at $18 million for 2022 which might make him too rich for us.  Maybe we take on that salary if we get a current reliever like Matt McGill in addition to Seager.

Josh Bell for Triston McKenzie, Nolan Jones and Cam Hill.   Yeah, doubt if this one would work, either.   But Bell is enticing if we move Santana to DH and Reyes to the outfield.  Bell has this year plus two arbitration years before he reaches free agency and his salary is reasonable right now and should probably be reasonable next year, as well.  Tito would like this one as Bell would be another switch hitter for him although his splits against lefties are not that good.  

So this is all I could come up with.right now.   As I said, unless some team just collapses, these are the trades that I think are doable for the Indians and none of these trades kills them if the season is cancelled this year.   

COVID and the Indians

So, with all the other issues this team has, we have the Clevinger/Plesac fiasco.

Don't get me wrong.   This is "a condition of employment' level issue.  That is, you want to work for me, you will follow my rules or you will not be able to work for me.

However, this is not the only thing that is wrong with the whole COVID bubble thing.  With my subscription to Indians broadcasts I see as much as STO shows about what is going on in the game.   

The key here is what Clevinger and Plesac did, selfishly, to potentially bring COVID into "the bubble".   However, as the Cardinals have said about their outbreak, it is not only what is going on that lets COVID in, it is what goes on inside the bubble that allows it to spread.  That is, if internal protocols are not followed the virus can spread rapidly through the bubble.  And that is where I see a problem.  

Here are some of the recent examples:

1/ Jordan Luplow, after his first hit/HR of the season went, COVID-wise ballistic..  High-Fiving people, screaming in the face of people on the on-deck circle and in the dugout

2. Jose Ramirez, without a mask on, not social distancing at all from Francisco Lindor (who was wearing a mask).   Ramirez took has hand and wiped it over his face, wiping off the sweat while all the time touching things around him that others could have touched.   Lindor, sitting right next to Ramirez, took off his mask to year down to someone at the other end of the dugout.   He did put his mask back on but, still,   Plus both of them were standing with their hands on the rails at the front of the dugout.

Pitchers without masks and not putting their gloves over their faces, talking to catchers and pitching coaches in mound visits.

Not everyone in the dugout has a mask on and, in fact, Francona generally doesn't wear the mask over his nose, just over his mouth (one of my big pet peeves in mask wearing!).

Another point.   Maybe the cameras don't show it but I have not seen a single container of disinfectant wipes in the dugout and I have never seen a player going for hand sanitizer in shots of the dugout.  Don't know if that means it isn't happening but it does beg that question, doesn't it?

And this could just be the tip of the iceberg as the game cameras don't catch pre-game warmups.   What goes on in places like the locker room I assume is more well-regulated by the team.   But still....

In summary, there are two aspects to controlling this virus in baseball:

Don't let the virus in

Assume that it is "in" and don't let it spread.

You can't have one conversation without the other, because it is going to get in.  Even the most diligent nursing homes are showing that because you THINK you are doing so much to keep it from getting in your bubble that you relax a little bit about the internal procedures when, really, you need to treat internal situations like it is already in.   

The former is logical but I think, more than Clevinger/Plesac which is a totally separate issue of trust and truth, the latter is what would keep situations like this from spreading.   

So while the Indians are absolutely right in their public chastising of these two young men, they need to be more diligent inside their bubble or it looks like they are just handling the public part of the equation whereas the private part, what happens inside the bubble, does not appear to be being appropriately policed.

Speculations about the hitting

For the first time (thanks to the pandemic) I have had the time to make a subscription to MLBTV to be worthwhile.  

So I have seen, in entirety, every Indians game this year.

It is great to see our pitchers do as well as they are.  

It is gut wrenching to see our hitters suck as bad as they do.

So what is going on with the hitters.

Some thoughts that come to mind:

• Just pressing because no one else is hitting and the season is short.
• Our hitters are just overrated and they suck
  
• Bad hitting coaches
• People not hitting where they are best at hitting
• Pandemic

Because of the pitching similarities to 1991 (a team that lost 101 games) the hitting situation scares me. So I have been thinking a lot about the hitting.

I will preface what I am saying by acknowledging that I was a terrible hitter...in little league.   The best 'hits' I got was when I leaned into one...with my butt.    So I have not expertise to lend to what I am saying.  That being said, here is what I am thinking.

1. I don't believe that our hitters are pressing.   I really don't think this is it.   This has gone on way too long for that to be true.  If you press you generally are not taking a lot of pitches.

2. I don't believe our hitters ALL suck.   Yes, Reyes did not hit well when he came here last year and Domingo Santana, if you take away his first 60 games last year, was just mediocre.  Luplow was really just above average last year but, previously, he sucked so his start could be a little rust and a lot just that he sucks.  Leon sucks but we know he would have.  So maybe some of this is that they suck.  We get that Allen and Johnson could have this kind of start and that Zimmer is doing very similar to every year but his first year.  I think Carlos Santana is just struggling because Lindor is struggling as are Reyes and Domingo Santana.   So he doesn't have to get fastballs.   Basically, pitchers can pitch around him because there is no one on base in front of him and the people hitting behind him are not dangerous.   Thus all the walks he is getting early AND the lack of HRs and BA as when he does swing he isn't swinging at pitches he can feast on.

3. I really was, and maybe still am, thinking it is that we have bad hitting coaches.  Part of the rip on Tito in Boston was it got to the point that the players were running the team.   This is not a dig at Tito but, rather, he had veterans and he trusted them to prepare correctly and, frankly, they were probably taking advantage of that situation.   If the same attitude exists here AND the hitting coaches are not really that experienced, maybe the lack of an unbiased, quality voice is keeping these guys from getting in their groove.   Maybe.  It would not be the first time I have seen that with a team and not even the first time I have seen that with the Indians.

4. It has crossed my mind several times that Lindor is hitting pathetically because he is hitting 3rd.   It looks like he is lost and pressing.   While Ramirez has hit well at times, he is still hitting a lot of line drives foul and is not producing in the clutch as he should.   

So, you could easily say that it is a combination of the first 4 things.   Hernandez is doing what he should do as a leadoff hitter.   Maybe all the other guys are failing because each of them has an issue.   Or......

4. Maybe it is due to the pandemic.    As I think Yogi Berra said, baseball is 90% mental and the other half physical.   Despite the bad math, if you head is not in the game, you won't do well.   I really think that if players are worried about their health and how it impacts their future in the game and their ability to both live AND be millionaires after this season, maybe their head is not in the game as much as it needs to be.   Picture Lindor if he wasn't enjoying the game like he did in the past.   Now it becomes a grind, looking over his shoulder to see who may be infecting him and then having it snowball into a hitting slump.   

In my opinion it is not one thing.   But the thing that comes to mind more often than anything is that a large part of the hitting struggles could be the pandemic.

Why doesn't this impact pitchers?  I think pitching is more mechanical and the pitchers count on the catchers and the catchers can focus on their defense.  The fact that our pitchers are successful with Beau Taylor catching as well as with Leon or Perez tells me that pitchers may be more immune to being defocused by the pandemic.   Maybe.

Well, time to watch again.  Hopefully whatever reason it is, the hitters get over it today...and we don't have a repeat of 1991.