Indians top propsects - January 2021 - Who is going to help in the rebuild and when?

 Wow, something we haven't thought about in while:  prospects.  

Well, we better start thinking about them because that's what a rebuild needs.  So this year we are going to do things a little differently, which you do in a rebuild or reloading or whatever this is going to be.  

I am going to list the prospects in order of who will most likely be the most help to the Indians in 2021, who is the best of the next wave (end of 2021, sometime in 2022) and finally, who are the best of the guys 2 or more years away from the majors:

Who will help most in 2021?

1. Triston McKenzie    2. Emmanuel Clase     3. Tyler Freeman    4. Nolan Jones   5. Nick Sandlin

6. Scott Moss  7. Logan Allen (the older)  8. Kyle Nelson 9. Cam Hill  10. Yu Chang  11. Sam Hentges 

12. Bobby Bradley  13. Daniel Johnson  14. Trevor Stephan 15. Jordan Humphreys 

Summary  - Seeing Nolan Jones on this list as #4 is a bit surprising.   But, right now, I see him as a platoon player because he hasn't shown that he can hit lefties...at all.  I think the guys who will impact the team this year may be minor league relievers and middle infielders.  I think these guys may not be the top-rated prospects but will get a chance and are likely to succeed.   I find it interesting that Bobby Bradley didn't even get a taste of the majors this year as the Indians were looking for offense and you would have thought they would have thrown Bradley against the wall to see if he stuck.  But no.  Ditto for Daniel Johnson.   He was a marginal prospect, a Greg Allen-type prospect.   The Indians think he is more but we will see.   I have high hopes for every Cleveland prospect as continued success of our farm system is our only hope right now.  

Who will help most in 2022

1. Eli Morgan  2. Gabe Arias  3. Owen Miller  4. Joey Cantillo 5. Cody Morris  6. Tanner Burns  

7. Juan Hillman  8. Adam Scott 9. Juan Carlos Mejia 10. Kai'i Tom 11. Oscar Gonzalez 12. Luis Oviedo

13. Kirk McCarthy  14. Mason Hickman  15. Bryan Lavatisda  16. Steve Kwan

Summary - This will be the most interesting group.  I think if we have a strong nucleus these guys will fit in as fill-in starters, platoon players, relievers or reserves to help the team win AND keep the payroll down.  There is a lot of talent here and, in the best scenario, we will get some quality major leaguess and maybe occasional all-stars from this group.  Note that I have put Tom and Oviedo on this group at the end.   I think it is likely we will get Tom back but Oviedo is not likely.   If we get him back he should help us sometime in 2022.

Who will help most after 2022

1. George Valera  2. Bo Naylor  3. Ethan Hankins  4. Daniel Espino  5. Carlos Vargas  6. Jose Tena   

6. Carson Tucker  7. Brayan Rocchio  8. Aaron Bracho  9. Allen Hernandez  10. Andres Melendez  

11. Gabriel Rodriguez 12. Yordys Valdez  13. Joe Naranjo  14. Petey Halpin  15. Angel Martinez 

16. 23. Logan Allen  17. Junior Sanquintin  18. Marcos Gonzalez  18. Milan Tolentino  

19. Christian Cairo 20. Lenny Torres  21. Ray Delgado  22. Matt Turner  

 23. Jean Mota   24. Aaron Pinto  25. Richard Palacios  26. Will Bartlett  

27. Will Benson  28. Jose Fermin  29. Korey Holland  30. Jonathon Rodriguez   31. Jordan Brown

32. Skyler Arias  33. Dakody Clemmer  34. Hunter Gaddis  35. Nick Mickolajchak 36.Victor Nova

Summary -   There is a lot to like down here as there is still the aura of star power in some of these gusy and a lot to dream on (Allen Hernandez's age and fastball velocity, Andres Melendez's youth and advanced defensive catching skills).   There are a lot of position players who have potential if they can learn to hit and a lot of the pitchers who have closer, setup man potential and a few potential starting pitchers to dream on.

In short, this rebuild will not be painless.   However, unlike so many teams that are veteran heavy and prospect poor, the rebuild, with a little luck, should be short and we shouldn't have to endure a long stretch of losing seasons. 

This is a franchise-definining moment!

 Anybody who reads this blog likely knows that what I am about to say is true.  

How we handle Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco going forward will define this franchise.   Period.

You can't halfway rebuild because you become halfway competitive.   

Either compete or rebuild.   We no longer are in a position to compete AND rebuild if we trade Lindor and Carrasco.

I don't even think we are in a position to compete if we keep Carrasco and trade Lindor, unless the return for Lindor is eye-popping.

So, let's discuss the rebuild.  First, let's put a timeline on it. We will need at least 3 years to rebuild this team which may coincide with when our division weakens up again.  So any asset that we currently have who is unlikely to be around in 2024 AND has real trade value is fair game to be traded.

Our tradeable assets are:

Shane Beiber - Mr. Cy Young could net a hefty return, enough to really jump start the rebuild.  In theory he will be here through 2024.  If we can add a year by renegotiating his contract to give us one of his free agent years then it is worth keeping him for the first two competitive years at the end of the rebuild.  If he is only here in 2024 then he becomes Lindor.   BTW, he is arbitration eligible next winter so, with a season in 2021 that nets another Cy Young, his 3 arbitration years might be too expensive for Cleveland. 

Francisco Lindor - Already discussed.  Not against trading him, just not for trading him for a bag of magic beans.

Carlos Carrasco - Again, get value for him that really helps the rebuild and I am on board.

Jose Ramirez - Mr. almost MVP is, like Beiber, worthless to this team in a rebuild if he won't be around when we come out of that rebuild.  However, he is extremely valuable to other teams.   He is only signed through 2022 and that last year is for $21 million. So, in a rebuild, he is out the door this winter but should net good players/prospects to help in the rebuild

Aside from those 4 there is likely no player on this roster who would fetch in trade as much as he is worth to this team over the next 5 years. 

So, that's the deal.   If you are going to trade Lindor you might as well trade Carrasco, Ramirez and Shane Bieber.   None will be around when we come out of this rebuild.   So they are not fan favorites or key pieces to competing.   They are just assets that should be traded to help our next wave of competitiveness.

So if you trade Lindor, let the rebuild begin....NOW.  Don't try to snow the fans into thinking this compete and plan for the future crap is going to work any more.  Teams are spending money.   We are not.   Last year and the year before showed how screwed we are because we won't pay for players we need to put us over the top.   Stop the tantalizing and come to grips with the reality of cash-strapped ownership.  

Wow, two months really flew by!

My brother texted me today and asked why I hadn't posted in a while.  I told him I was saving up my anger and keystrokes for when the Indians made a pathetic trade for Francisco Lindor.

But, what the heck, lets start typing now.

Trading Adam Cimber - This was a sign the Indians are going in the right direction.   Cimber is a gimmick guy and give me a hard thrower or even strike thrower any time rather than a gimmick guy.  Anyone know Josh Tomlin's phone number? 

Not picking up Brad Hand's option - Only one reason that I can see doing this.   If we couldn't trade Hand.   Picking up his option and then trading him before the season starts is the only thing that made sense here.   Yeah, you might get stuck with him but it isn't like he is Adam Cimber.   Hand was just named to the ML allstar team for the year.  Yeah, I don't know if I would trust him for another season as the closer.  I could smell a meltdown.   However, he had a great year.   Even if you picked up $4 million of his salarey (actually only cost you 3 because of the $1 million buyout) you could have gotten SOMETHNG for him.   Bonehead move by the Indians.

Not picking up Santana's option - This was a no-brainer.   They weren't paying him $17.5 million or even $7.5 million.   Good luck with the Royals!  I am sure he will have a good season again, but it wasn't worth the gamble.

Non-tendering Naquin and DeShields -  This is another sign the Indians are being financially prudent and going in the right direction.  Look, none of these guys were worth the money they would have made. 

Having Ka'ai Tom and Luis Oviedo picked in the Rule 5 draft - What can you say?  This happens to the Indians every year, it seems.  For every Anthony Santander there is a Jordan Milbrath.  You lose some and you get some of them back.   You do have to ask yourself, however, why not just DFA DeShields and Naquin if you knew you were going to non-tender them.  Then put Tom and Oviedo on the roster.  Note:  Oviedo is pitching well in winter ball.   The last guy we lost in the Rule 5 who was pitching well in winter ball at the time was Hector Rondon.   One final thought about the Rule 5 draft: If you look at all the guys the Indians have LOST in the Rule 5 draft and you look at all the success stories that the Indians have had drafting in the Rule 5 draft one thing stands out.  THE INDIANS SUCK AT THE RULE 5 DRAFT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Francisco Lindor trade -  OK, so this one hasn't happened.  But one trade like this HAS happened already.  And it was doubly bad.   Lance Lynn got traded to the White Sox.  Not only is that bad for the Indians in 2021 it is also bad for the Indians in terms of trading Lindor.   Basically, what the Rangers got for Lynn is what we can expect for Lindor: One prospect who will be in Cleveland's top 10 and one who likely will be somewhere in their top 30 or 40 prospects.   Basically, we will get very little for Lindor.   That's what the Lance Lynn trade tells us and that sucks eggs, big time!!!!!!.   Maybe we can wait and trade him after Christmas so it doesn't ruin the holidays of Indians' fans.

The umpteenth don't trade Lindor post

 It really makes me roll my eyes when I hear a local writer (or two...or more) spout that Lindor will be traded this winter.

It all makes too much sense to me.

Now, if they said "Expect, if the Tribe get the offer they want, that they will trade Lindor this winter"

But what they are saying, in essence, is "Expect the Tribe to take the best offer for Lindor, irrespective of whether it is a good offer, just to save money or get stuck paying Lindor's salary next season."

You see, when you set low expectations you are bound to meet them.

Once Lindor is traded expect those same writers to say, in order:

• The Tribe really worked the trade market but this was the best they could get for Lindor
• With the season he had last year, his value was really down and so the FO did the best they could in a bad situation.
• What do you think we would have gotten for him if we waited until August?  Probably less than what we got now.
• Stay used to it, fans.   It's what happens when Tribe superstars get close to free agency

Expect maybe a top 10 prospect from some other organization (maybe the 7th best prospect or so), an overpaid veteran to balance out his salary, a low A fireballer who barely makes his team's top 20 prospects and another minor leaguer who is a college player with low upside but gaudy stats in the low minors who everyone knows is really not a prospect (thus not being a top prospect in the organization).

Look what we got for Bauer: Reyes, Logan Allen and Scott Moss.   Despite what people may say about Allen and Moss, it is more than likely that neither of them ever helps the Indians.  So maybe we got Reyes.

Look what we got for Clevinger.   Unless the Tribe's pitching magicians can get more out of Quantrill than what I think is there, he is a 5th starter, setup guy as his upside.   Naylor may or may not be anything.  Look at Luplow in his career.   Turn him around at the plate and that is likely to be Naylor.  Plus the minor leaguers are really questionable in my opinion.   

Now imagine what we get for a year of Lindor?  I think a year of Lindor and a compensation round pick is better than what this FO can do in a trade.  So the best trade is NO trade

Fans get mad, Dolan saves money, FO spins the guys we got back as really good additions to the organization.  Same old, same old.

So don't trade the guy because what you will get back is less than Lindor's one year value to this team and that compensation draft pick when he leaves.

That's the thing, right.  Make the best trade, even and ESPECIALLY if it is no trade.

So, as a counterpoint, let's change that narrative.

The Indians are a playoff contender with Lindor next year.   Without him and with the loss of Santana and maybe Hand, they are NOT a contender.  Maybe barely a .500 team or (gasp!) with an injury or two a below .500 team.  That "Let's go for mediocrity" narrative doesn't play well if you can't be above .500, does it?  I mean, even this year if we played a full schedule there is a better than average chance we would have been a below .500 team.

Plus, assuming fans are allowed to attend games next year, Lindor puts butts in the seats more than any other player not named Beiber.

Plus part deux, Lindor HAS to have a better season next year as he approaches free agency.   

So we keep the face of the franchise for another year.  Whether he likes it here or not, he is contractually obligated to play for the Tribe.   If he sucks he hurts his free agent value next winter.

Plus we are a little more competitive and all of us go to our graves knowing we got to see Lindor for as long (or almost as long if he is traded in August) as we could have, being fans of the Cleveland Tribe.

What Now?

 OK, we've become the Minnesota Twins South.  

Observations about the season and the series:

1. Sandy Alomar is not that good a manager.   Not that he is bad but he is just not playoff ready...yet.  Maybe someday but not yet.   The only really smart move he made was pinchhitting Luplow for Naylor and, fortunately it worked.   Other than that, he managed like a second division manager.   Karinchak, as much as I love his stuff, was the WRONG guy in that situation.   Not that we had anyone better, but he was just not suited in any way to come in at that point.  Carrasco should have been allowed to see if he could have cleaned up his mess.  Not hindsight, I was screaming this into my computer at the time.

2. Lindor, Santana??? What can you say?  Their seasons are puzzling (more later on this)

3. Why 3 catchers on the roster?   There is never any reason for that when none of them can hit. 

4.  Did we not have Domingo Santana?  If we did, he should have been on the roster for that last out situation in the 9th.   It was almost comical and embarassing that we sent Austin I-can't-outhit-a-pitcher Hedges for that final at bat.  Bad roster building if Hedges is EVER the best hitter you can send to the plate unless your bench is empty...and then I let a pitcher hit.

5. You can easily make a case that Bieber was not the same pitcher after his 118 pitch outing.   The same can be said for Civale after his complete game.

If either of them end up hurt or pitching bad next year someone should get fired.

6. On a first division team with reasonable talent, Delino DeShields Jr. would be on a second division team (their is a Yogi Berra-ism in there somewhere).  He was pathetic.   It looked like after he got hurt he was scared of the wall.   I mean, he played worse than an a AA centerfielder.   He was truly bad and his arm was, at the end of the season, a real rag arm.  The only reason he was even in the lineup is that he actually could hit over .200 AND because of his undeserved defensive reputation.

6. I have said this before but I will end this section with this: This is the best you will ever get from the Indians until they start spending in free agency or making smart trade deadline deals.  The result was due to us not having enough hitting or solid bullpen arms.   Above mediocrity level but totally frustrating.   

What SHOULD lie ahead (and what will)

Francisco Lindor - What should happen: Because he had such a mediocre season, we should keep him this winter.   Look, he lost a LOT of his tradeability when he tanked it the way he did this year, especially the tank (not his first time) in the playoffs.  He has one year left on his contract, had a sucky season with some really questionable play and mental decisions.   His value is down which would make him a real bargain in a trade...and meaning the Indians won't get good value for him.   The pro-FO people will say, after a return that makes the Clevinger trade look like a gold mine, "What did you expect to get for him?" So here is the case for keeping him.   His value is down.   His value is down.  And, of course, his value is down.  Wacky baserunning, terrible hitting with runners on base and some questionable defensive plays really hurt...wait for it...his value.

A whole season of Lindor and a sandwich draft pick is better than ANY return we will get for him after this tanked 2020 season and with our FO, who will be under pressure to dump him.   I think every season ticket holder should have the option of getting their money immediately refunded if the Indians trade Lindor this winter or next season.   Really, make it part of the season ticket contract...now.

What SHOULD happen:  We keep Lindor and make him play out his last year giving everything he has for US rather than for someone else.   We won't get good value for him.  Antonneti has not shown he can get good value in the trade with his highwater mark being the questionable Clevinger trade.

What will happen: The FO, under pressure from the owner, will dump Lindor to the highest lowball bidder and we will make comments about how some third rate prospect is a hidden gem.

Carlos Santana - Unfortunately he played himself off this team.   The only way he comes back is if he plays for a $6 million one year deal.

What should happen: We let him go to FA and offer him a $6 million deal and he takes it because he is so embarassed at this pathetic performance this year.

What will happen: He will have a bounceback year next year on a one year deal...for someone else.

Roberto Perez - You think deciding to keep Lindor is our biggest decision?   Think again.   Perez knows these pitchers but he has been hurt a lot and it is not clear if he can hit any more.

What should happen - We pick up his option

What will happen - We will let him go and keep Sandy Leon and Austin Hedges just to save $5 million.

Winter trades/FA signings - So what will we do this winter?

We need players and teams will not be wanting to spend this winter after their financial losses.  Teams may also be trying to dump their overpriced, underperforming players.

What we should do: Sign a couple of FA OF bats and a couple of relievers.  

What we will do: Nothing positive.   

What will happen this winter: We will get worse.   We will play over .500 ball, just barely, and do nothing at the deadline and miss the playoffs by a lot.

Just sayin!

Everything inside of me...

 Frist, I wanted to say congratulations to the Cleveland Indians.   I don't know what would have happened in a 162 game schedule but in the 60 game schedule, they would have made the playoffs even if only 6 teams were taken to the playoffs in each league, which is the case every other year.

But....

Of all the matchups they could have had, this is the one that scares me the most.   

In game 1 they will be facing one of the best pitchers in baseball not named Shane Bieber AND, in game 2, another excellent pitcher who has given them fits in the past and, especially, in the playoffs.  

Plus, on paper the Yankees have a much better batting order than do the Indians.  And, on paper, it isn't even close. 

Everything inside of me tells me that we don't have a chance in this series because, as good as Bieber, Carrasco and Plesac are, the best they can do is put up zeros and the most likely thing, in the first two games, that Indians' batters will do is also put up zeros.

All it will take is one mistake by Bieber and one by Carrasco and the Indians' batters will fold like a house of cards in a windstorm.

Cole's statistics with his catcher on Tuesday (1.00 ERA) are more impressive than Bieber's stats.  Plus Bieber had that recent 118 pitch game.   Now, does that necessarily mean it will impact his start tomorrow?  No, it doesn't.   But everything inside of me tells me that that game will have just enough impact on him that he will make that one mistake or two mistakes and, with Cole and the Indians offense, that will be enough.

In game 2 we will be going with Carrasco, which I think is the right choice.  And Carrasco will likely be very good.   However, my gut tells me he will make a mistake or two and we won't be able to touch Tanaka.

Plus Ramirez has not been the best in the post-season and Lindor doesn't look like he will turn his season around.  And the rest of the offense and, recently, the defense and the base running, has been AAA level, at best.

So, my gut tells me we will lose in a numbing two game sweep to the Yankees and all of us will be left with the same questions and frustration we had over the winter and at the trade deadline: the FO knew we needed more outfielders and, generally, more offensive production, and they didn't get it for us.  

Everything inside of me tells me this is what is going to happen and that it is going to be bad and frustrating and ugly and a little angering as we will get down and won't show any fight to get back in either game and lose by scores of 6-1 and 10-2, going down without any fight in us at all.

But what if Lindor finds a way to put his foot on the gas?  What if Ramirez has matured enough to just take what the game gives him instead of trying to hit 5-run HRs?   What if Santana has found that spark that he missed all year and Reyes runs into enough pitches that he deposits over the fence to negate the Yankees power?  What if Hernandez is even better than he has been?  And what if the rest of the guys find a way to just match the bottom of the Yankees order?  And what if we get out of our defensive and baserunning funk and find a way to play flawless, fundamental baseball?  

And what if, against the odds, Bieber and the batters find a way to best Cole and his batters and Carrasco stands strong and Tanaka shows he is human against the Indians?

What if, this time, it is the Indians who sweep and go into the next round against the Rays?  What if they are built more to beat Tampa Bay and actually do it?   What if they get to the ALCS and are facing the White Sox and what they did in the last series with them is what happens again?   What if they get to the World Series in a year what they hadthe equivalent of a 22 game losing steak in a regular-length season?

What if they get to the World Series and, against all odds, pull a Dodgers vs Athletics 1984 thing and do to the Dodgers what they did to the Athletics that year?

What if this is their year?   What if it is the Indians year for a change?  It's not what everything inside me THINKS will happen, it is what everything inside of me HOPES and WiLLS to happen.  And what better time to turn baseball history on its ear than in this pandemic-warped season.  So, with every sinew of hope and will in my body I am going to be rooting for them to do what looks impossible, knowing that, just below the surface of what we have seen this year is a team that can do it.   A team that WILL do it!  

Good luck Indians!! God's speed!

This can work!!!!!

 First, let me apologize.   When I said we weren't making the playoffs I forgot that Houston was actually the SECOND place team in the West, meaning no matter what their record was, it didn't impact the 3rd place, wildcard-bound Indians.

So, yes, the Indians are likely to make the playoffs and maybe even finish with another above .500 record if they take one of four from the White Sox and 2 of 3 from the Pirates.   Still, looking at 31-29 being their likely finish with a ceiling of 32-28 and a floor of 29-31.   Likely any of those will make the playoffs although it is not guaranteed.

So, why am I smiling when saying that our expectations are, from 26-15 to finish on possibly a 3-16 note?  

With some luck we might get through the first round of the playoffs and here is how we can do it.

Starter-Karinchak-Hand

All we have to do is have Bieber and Plesac go 7 shutout innings each and have Karinchak and Hand throw clean, shutout innings.   We don't need it for a month.   We don't need it for a week.  We just need it for two games.  We don't need Perez, we don't need Wittgren, we don't need Maton, we don't need Quantrill, we don't need Hill.   We don't need anyone who is likely to give up a run, which is all of these guys in the playoffs.  We won't need Carrasco and we won't need McKenzie, even though I would prepare the latter for the bullpen just in case we need him in a short stint if we have to go to Karinchak and Hand too often.

All we need is our starter and these two relievers.  

Can we do it against the White Sox?  Not likely as they know us too well.

But maybe we can do it against Tampa Bay, who haven't seen our guys this year.

All we have to do is pitch.

And find a way to score a couple of runs each game during regulation!.  A couple of 2 to zeros and we are onto round 2.  

I can dream, can't I?