2024 Draft - Part 25 - Saturday, July 13th - Final Thoughts Before THE Most Important Draft in Guardians History!

Yeah, I know.  Melodramatic!  

But this draft is historic.  

• In Part 11 of this series I detailed that we have more money to spend (almost $20 million, counting the 4.999% overage) than any team has EVER had to spend on a draft.  

• We have the #1 pick in the summer, first year player draft for the first time IN CLEVELAND BASEBALL HISTORY.

• Our organizational prospect ranking has dropped to the bottom half of the teams in baseball.  We need a huge influx of talent to move in the top 10 which is where, as a small market team, we should always be.  The need for that influx may increase if (as we should) use prospect capital at the trade deadline.  So we need to have this draft be a big success.

• In Part 24 I wrote about the last 3 Guardians drafts.  Here is a summary of this post:

• 2021 - In what could turn out to be the best draft in Cleveland history, 11 out of 21 picks were top 250 draft prospects (MLB Pipeline top 250 draft prospects); 7 out of those 11 were ranked as better than the slot they were drafted.  19 were college players (18 pitchers) and 2 were HS players.  They signed all 21 of their picks.  2 of those picks are currently in the majors and 3 more are in the Guardians top 30 prospects.

• 2022 - 7 of their picks were ranked draft prospects.   4/7 were ranked better than the slot they were drafted in.  They signed all 21 of those draft picks.  3 are currently in the Guardians top 30 prospect

• 2023 - 9 picks were ranked draft prospects. 4/9 were ranked better than their draft slot. They signed 19/21 with the two unsigned players being HS pitchers who they couldn't sign because they gave Alex Mooney a larger-than-anticipated bonus. 6 are currently in their top 30 prospects

• The most successful of these drafts appears to be the 2021 draft which coincides with the draft where they drafted the most ranked players and the most ranked players who were ranked higher than their draft slot. It also is the draft of those 3 where they drafted the highest percentage (by far) of college players.   The 2nd best draft of these 3 appears to be the 2023 draft where they drafted 9 ranked players.  It should be noted that when the next version of their top 30 prospects comes out, guys like Davenport, Nikhazy, Mace, Webb and Denholm, all 2021 draftees, should be on it as those guys appear to be just outside of their top 30 right now and are all having great years so far.

• In Part 10 I wrote how 2024 was the year of the draft-eligible sophomore.  With more kids starting college at age 19 and with the COVID year still having an impact on players being red-shirted in 2022, there are a lot of guys this year who have not completed their 3rd year of college eligibility, yet are still draft eligible.  There is easily 10% of players in the top 100 and the top 300 players in this draft who are sophomore eligible.  Like Alex Mooney last year, these players will likely require significantly higher bonuses than what their draft slot would dictate.  This situation would favor teams like the Guardians who will have a lot of money to play with in the draft.  I think, instead of looking for the brass ring, they should focus their excess draft budget on draft-eligible sophs.  These are experienced college kids who should get to the majors more quickly, unlike a guy like Alex Clemmey, a HS pitcher drafted overslot early in the 2023 draft, who will take extra time to get to the majors with the accompanying extra risk.

•  It seems like years since we won the #1 overall pick for this draft by winning the lottery in Dec. 2023.  I think it is important to remember that this draft was considered very weak at the time, with the top 3 prospects being no better than the #7 prospect drafted in 2023.  Even today experts are saying that after the first 10-12 guys, this draft is very weak.  My point is that there are no brass ring guys (like HS stud pitchers who have dropped in the draft due to their bonus demands).  Due to the weakness of the draft these guys APPEAR better than they really are because you are looking at them compared to other weak draft prospects.  The smart play, IMO, is Bazz, solid college pitchers and spending your extra money on draft-eligible sophomores, 3rd day high school P flyers (like Bresnahan, Humphries, Zibin, Zinn) and 3rd day injured college pitchers.

• As I detailed previously, in the last 5 drafts (excluding the 2020 COVID year draft) 4 of 5 teams holding the 1-1 pick have selected either the top ranked, or 2nd ranked draft prospect.  In the 2021 draft the Pirates selected Henry Davis, the #5 draft prospect, in order to save money to spend later in the draft (which they used in the 3rd round on Bubba Chandler, currently the #63 ranked prospect in baseball).  Davis is currently in AAA and holds a sub-Mendoza ML batting line. The #1 prospect in that draft was Marcelo Mayer, who is currently the #10 prospect in all of baseball.  The 1-1 pick in 2023 was Paul Skenes (again to Pittsburgh) who will be the 2024 NL All-star game starting pitcher.

• In recent drafts the Guardians have drafted the following HS/non-4-year college pitchers in early rounds of the draft: Daniel Espino, Brady Aiken, Alex Clemmey.  In later rounds they have drafted guys like Matt Wilkinson (JUCO), Jackson Humphries, Jacob Bresnahan, Magnus Ellerts (JUCO) and Jacob Zibin.  So, while it is still possible their early round HS/JUCO picks may turn out, you could make a case that drafting HS/JUCO pitchers late in the draft presents similar risk/reward to drafting them higher.

• As the final points here: 

• I am still for drafting Travis Bazzana at 1-1. His work ethic, power potential and hitting attributes make him an ideal fit for Cleveland's system.  If he accepts $9.3 million, I don't see us drafting anyone else.

•  I can see the case for drafting JJ Wetherholt as he was the top draft prospect in January but the question marks about current and future hamstring problems.  I can't even begin to discuss a discount for Wetherholt if Bazzana will accept $9.3 million due to the Henry Davis effect.  If what happened to the Pirates happens to the Guardians if they draft JJ (both Davis and Wetherholt are #5 prospects in their respective draft class) this is something that would be difficult for the Guardians to recover from.

• I could also make a case to draft Charlie Condon but, as a draft-eligible sophomore, I think he will price himself out of consideration at 1-1 and would only draft him if he would accept $9.3 million, my top figure for Bazzana, as well.  If it was between Bazzana and Condon at $9.3 million, I would likely have to flip a coin.

So, in summary, strategy-wise I think the Guardians should draft Bazzana @ 1-1, college pitchers at 36 and 48, then take draft-eligible sophomores in the 3rd and 4th rounds, switching back to college pitchers in rounds 5-10, except for one college senior hitter in round 9.  On the 3rd day of the draft I would focus on HS pitchers and hurt college pitchers, throwing in a senior-sign college outfielder and a JUCO draftee who we control until the next draft and maybe sprinkle in 1-2 draft-eligible sophomores..

If the Guardians get cute with this draft it could be a disaster.  And, having gotten the gift of the #1pick and the largest draft bonus pool in baseball history, all they have to do is be solid and pick a solid player at each slot, just like they did in 2021.  Follow the lead of 2021 (draft ranked players, draft college players, draft guys who are ranked better than their draft slots) as well as drafting HS pitchers late, they could have an epic draft that could even eclipse their 2021 draft as the best draft in Cleveland baseball history.

I hope they do this as Cleveland, as a small market team, really needs them not to screw this up just because they want to prove how smart they are...and that they are smarter than the rest of baseball.  Don't get cute.  Be solid.  We are all rooting for you, just like we root for the players you draft and sign.

2024 Draft - Part 24 - Looking Back At The 2021, 2022 and 2023 Drafts And How They Might Impact The 2024 Draft

 As we approach the 2024 draft I thought it would be instructive to look a few drafts back to see how the Guardians' draft strategy has played out.

2021

The year of the college pitcher!  The Guardians took 18 college pitchers, 1 college position player (11th round), 1 HS position player (3rd round) and 1 HS pitcher (19th round) in the 20 round draft.  

They were not alone as the Dodgers and Reds took almost exclusively pitchers, as well, but the Dodgers took more HS pitchers than the Guardians. So the Guardians strategy was not unique but it appears now that their selections were good ones.

1. Gavin Williams: pick 23, rank 31, MLB

2 - Doug Nikhazy, pick 58, rank 56, AAA

2-CB - Tommy Mace, pick 69, rank 45, AA

3 - Jake Fox - pick 96, rank 198 - High A 

4. - Ryan Webb - pick 125, rank 155 - AA

5. - Tanner Bibee - pick 162, rank 155, MLB

6. - Aaron Davenport - picked 186, not ranked in top 250 - AA

7.  - Jack Leftwich - pick 216, rank 156, AA

8.  Rodney Boone - pick 245, rank 192, AA

9. Will Dion - 276, not ranked - AAA

10. Franco Aleman - pick 306, rank 243 AAA 

11. Hunter Stanley - AAA

12. Connor Koxx - AA

13. Davis Sharpe - AA

14. Trenton Denhoms, Pick 426, rank 216, High A

15. Alaska Abney - AA

16. Zach Pettway - Retired

17. Tyler Thornton - AA

18. Tommy Ventimiglia - ACL

19. Reid Johnston - High A

20. Jake Miller - High A

In all seriousness, if Nikhazy, Webb, Mace, Aleman and Davenport make it to the majors (likely) and some of Dion, Boone, Stanley, Sharp and Denholm make it, this will be a great draft in strategy and execution, maybe the best in Cleveland history.  Notice that 11 of their 21 picks were ranked in the MLB Pipeline top 250 and 7 of their picks were ranked higher than where they were selected (a good thinkg).  They didn't do anything cute.  They just drafted solid players in each round and picked guys they could develop.  Solid...which is turning into excellent.

2022

DeLauter -  18/16 - AA

Campbell - 37/36 - ACL

Messick - 54/54 - AA

Lampe - 92/106 - AA

Furman - 121/NR in top 250 - AA

Lpscomb - 152/NR High A

DeLucia - 151/NR ACL

Santos - 211/NR ACL

Humphries - 214/128 Low A

Peterson - 271/NR - AA

Zibin - 301/131 - ACL

Ellerts - High A

Jasiak - High A

Turner - High A

Cavenaugh - Low A

Tulloch - High A

Clark - ACL

Zarate - High A

Jacobs - High A

River, Jr. - ACL

Shawn Rapp - High A

Only 6 of Cleveland's 21 draft picks were ranked in MLB Pipeline's top 250. Only 4 of their draftees were ranked higher than where they were drafted and two were HS pitchers (Humphries and Zinn) who were both way overslot signings.  At the same point in their career 2021 draftees Bibee and Williams were in the majors.  No player from this draft is above AA.  There are some surprises (Peterson, Ellerts) but a lot of these guys could be released by next year at this time, contrasting to ZERO guys from the 2021 draft being released during the 2023 season or even so far in the 2024 season.  This draft started the trend of looking for LH slap hitters with good plate discipline and some speed and control over velocity pitchers, hoping that they could teach power and velocity.  So far it hasn't worked that well.  This draft appears, right now, to be much less promising than 2021 with only one true starter type player emerging, the oft-injured (and injured at draft time) DeLauter.

2023

Velasques 23/31 - Low A

Clemmey 58/50 - Low A

Walters 62/124 - AAA

Kayfus 93/151 - AA

Ingle 125/232 - High A

Knapczyk - 161/157 - Low A

Hawke - 188/238 - Low A

Mooney - 218/114 - High A

Advincula - 248/NR - High A

Driver - 278/241 - Low A

Wilkinson - 308/NR - High A

Tincher - High A

Zinn - ACL

Bresnahan - ACL

Morehouse - Low A

Scott - Low A

Heuer - Did not sign

Riebock - ACL
Jahec - Low A

Harlow - Low A

Marohn - Did not sign

9 of their 21 picks were ranked in MLB Pipeline's top 250 prospects.  Only 4 were ranked high than where they were drafted.  So far Kayfus looks like the gem of this class as he is clearly exceeding not only his ranking but also his draft selection spot,   Velasquez looks very good and a solid, if long-game play.  Ingle is a great hitter.  Walters looked good until he got to AAA but even getting to AAA in his 1st full-season is a good result. Mooney has looked very good at High A and is looking more and more like his bonus was justified.  Wilkinson has been a pleasant surprise as has Bresnahan.  Clemmey has struggled with his challenging assignment to low A but the rest of the guys look like release candidates if they don't show improvement soon, which is not a good look for a team to release so many draft choices so early in their development.  Compare this to 2021 and you can see how lacking this draft looks right now.

2024

So, what does all this mean for the 2024 draft?  Looking at the last 3 drafts our success has come from drafting college pitchers of the type we drafted in 2021.  We have drafted some position players in 2022 and 2023 who might be future starters and a lot of pitchers in those classes are either young or have been hurt or haven't shown they can dominate yet.  So in 2024 we need to get a higher percentage of ranked, college prospects (like 2021), look for impact college bats (like Bazzana) and build off 2022 and 2023 to draft more quality (ranked) HS arms that will likely take overslot bonues to sign.  That strategy will compliment the stronger players from the 2021, 2022 and 2023 drafts and help to fill in the gaps created by injuries and faulty draft strategy in 2022 and 2023.  

This is a crucial draft for the Guardians and they need to do a good job.  Don't try to be cute, don't try to prove you are the smartest scouting drirector out there by doing unusual things (like the slap hitter fad in 2023 and, to some extent, 2022).  Just look at and mirror the 2021 draft, solid up and down the draft...but of course with more college impact bats than in 2021, 2022 and 2023.  

2024 Draft - Part 23 - Looking At My Mock Draft, How Much Money Will We Have To Spend?

People are talking about saving money on the 1-1 pick to have money left over for later picks.  Let's examine, using my latest mock draft, how much money I think we will have left over to sign over-slot guys.  NOTE: Some of the slot values may be off a little bit.  I will correct them in the next couple of days if my research finds that they are not exact.  

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: USING THE FIGURES BELOW, YOU CAN SEE HOW WE CAN SIGN OVERSLOT PLAYERS WITHOUT CHEAPING OUT ON OUR 1-1 PICK.  PLEASE TAKE NOTE CLEVELAND GUARDIANS SCOUTING DEPARTMENT1

The Guardians have a draft budget of $18,334,000.  Thus, assuming we spend 4.99% over our budget as we have for the last 3 drafts, this gives us an allowed overage before we lose a draft pick, of:

Overage : $914,680  

Let's now look at each of the picks in my latest mock draft and what I think the expected difference in their bonuses (savings in black, overslot amount in red)

#1 - $10,570,600 - Bazzana - $9,300,000 - $1,270,600

#36 - $2,596,000 - Holman - $2,200,000 - $396,000 

#48 - $1,958,000 - Cunningham - $1,800,000 - $158,000

#84 - $917,290 - HS Flyer Pitcher - $2,500,000 - $1,582,710

#114 - $644,600 - Ager - $520,000 - $124,600

#147 - $467,610 - Holmes - $440,000 - $27,610

#177 -$355,190 - Draft Eligible Sophomore position player - $1 million - $644, 880

#207 - $277,750 - Boerema - $250,000 - $27,750

#237 - $222,420 - Knowles - $250,000 - $22,580

#267 - $196,900 - Bay - $200,000 - $3,100

#297 - $184,910 - Coppola - $250,000 - $65,090                                        

#327 - Bonus - $150,000, if < 0 then = 0 - Koch - $250,000 - $100,000

#357 - Bonus - $150,000, if < 0 then = 0 - McDowell - $25,000 - $0

#387 - Bonus - $150,000, if < 0 then = 0 - Draft-eligible soph position player - $270,000 - $120,000

#417 - Bonus - $150,000, if < 0 then = 0 - Holcombe - $175,000 - $25,000

#447 - Bonus - $150,000, if < 0 then = 0 - HS P Flyer #2 - $300,000 - $150,000

#477 - Bonus - $150,000, if < 0 then = 0 - Injured College Pitcher #1 - $200,000 - $50,000

#507 - Bonus - $150,000, if < 0 then = 0 - HS P Flyer #3 - $250,000 - $100,000

#537 - Bonus - $150,000, if < 0 then = 0 - Injured College Pitcher #2 - $150,000 - $0

#567 - Bonus - $150,000, if < 0 then = 0 - Willadsen - $100,000 - $0

#597 - Bonus - $225,000, if < 0 then = 0 - Draft-and-follow - $225,000 - $0

Cleveland Guardians' 2024 budget pool + $4.9999%: $19,250,682 (budget in 2023 was $8,736,700)

Amount spent: $19,250,302

Amount of budget left:  $380

So, if this all works out, I have stayed within budget and gotten a solid class of:

• 3 high profile HS pitching prospects
• 1 draft and follow JUCO player we have up to next July to sign for up to $225,380
• 3 injured college pitchers
• 2 draft-eligible sophomores
• 3 college seniors/redshirt juniors 
• 5 classic college junior pitchers
• 5 college position players

This adds up to a total of 12 college pitchers, 3 high school pitchers, 5 college position players and 1 JUCO D&F whose position will probably be determined by who is left when they get to their 20th round pick.  

2024 Draft - Part 22 - Mock Draft 2.0 -

OK, we are less than a week from the beginning of the 2024 draft.  Here is my latest (and hopefully final) mock draft as any mock draft I do after this would be because of something really unforeseen and likely unfortunate thing happening.  So, let's go.

1-1 - Travis Bazzana - 2B - Oregon St. - Bazzana still best fits the Guardians' type of hitter. There is no reason and nothing I have heard that has swayed me off of him.  I see this pick coming in about $1.2 million below slot.

1-36 (Supplemental A) - Luke Holman - RHP - LSU -As you can tell I have moved off of Mike Sirota (RHH OFer, Northeastern) at this pick.  Holman is the type of pitcher who I think will do well in the CGFS4CP (Cleveland Guardians Finishing School For College Pitchers, previously known as "The Factory").  I think the recent success of Nikhazy, Mace, Davenport and Denholm shows me this program is alive and doing well. And, you can never have enough pitching.  I see this pick coming in slightly below slot.

2-48 - Bryce Cunningham, RHP - Vanderbilt - I like Cunningham because I think he will do well with the help of the CGFS4CP and is a relatively safe pick and should come in a little below slot.

3-84 - HS Pitcher Way Over Slot Pick - In 2023 Washington pick Travis Sykora, a HS RHP at #71 (#40 ranked prospect) and signed him for $2.6 million ($1.6 million over slot).  In 2022 the Rangers signed Brock Porter at #109 (#11 prospect) for $3.7 million (#2.14 million over slot).  In 2021 the Pirates signed Bubba Chandler at #72 (#21 prospect) for $3 million ($2.13 million over slot).  This seems like where the Guardians would make their huge over slot investment.  

4-113 - Matt Ager - RHP - UC Santa Barbara - Earlier in the year I thought that Ager might sneak into the top 2 rounds but the way he was used this year, in my opinion, caused his stuff to play down. I think we use this pick to make up a little money as I think he comes in under slot.  I don't think he will, but if somehow Mike Sirota OF Northeastern slips to here, I take him before I take Ager.

5-146 -Bridger Holmes - RHP - Oregon State - It is tough for teams to draft a reliever.  Hey, starter with reliever risk is easy.  But reliever?  So I hope Holmes will be available here.  Note that I have moved him up from 175 to 146 because I like him a lot, although I wouldn't be unhappy with Nick Brink RHP Portland here.

6-175 - Draft-Eligible Sophomore - Last year the Guardians picked Alex Mooney, a draft-eligible sophomore in the 7th round.  Given the success that Mooney has had this year, I think they go back to that well again this year.  I can't begin to say who will drop to this point in the draft but I do think that the Guardians will be targeting a sophomore who is a position player and maybe an OFer or corner infielder.  Some names that come to mind are Khadim Diaw, C/OF, Loyola Marymount,  Jared Thomas, 1B/OF Texas, Austin Overn OF, USC, Anthony Silva, 3B, TCU, Zach Stewart, OF, Missouri State.  Hard to tell if any of these guys will drop this far or whether even more highly rated prospects will drop due to their leverage as sophomores but, for what it's worth, Diaw and Overn are crushing it in the Cape this summer and Diaw hits RH and, obviously, has come catching background (Cough! David Fry.  Cough!).

7-205 - Owen Boerema - RHP - Kansas State - A senior sign, Boerema was a solid pitcher for K-State, logging 98 innings this spring, He would hit the ground running if he was available here and would be a very cheap sign.

8-235 - Nate Knowles - RHP - William & Mary - I have upgraded him from round 12 in my previous mock draft.  He will likely be a slot to slightly above slot signing.

9-265 - John Bay - OF - Austin Peay - Bay is hitting with power in the Cape this summer so he might be gone here but I like this guy and he is really my only other power hitter (after Bazzana) in this draft and he is a RHH outfielder who should come in somewhere around slot

10-295 - Pierce Coppola - LHP - Florida - Well, after his CWS start, he might not be available here but scouts have gotten only sporadic looks at him so maybe he lasts this long.  One thing for sure: that one CWS start for Florida will be worth $150,000+ for him as he will likely cost $250,000 to sign.

Round 11 - Matt Koch - RHP - Creighton (in transfer portal) - Koch turns 21 on June 29th, making him both a draft-eligible sophomore and a transfer portal guy.   With a fastball up to 96 and other good analytics, he looks good (60 Ks in 38.1 innings in 2024).  Normally 11th round picks, being the first picks on day 3, after the dust settles on a frantic day 2, are places where teams can pick up gems.  In the 11th and 12 rounds of previous drafts we have picked up guys like Adam Plutko, Zach Plesac and, recently, Magnus Ellerts (2022), Hunter Stanley (2021) and Nick Mikolajchak (2019), all college pitchers.  Obviously Koch will cost us over slot but not so much that we won't have it left in our war chest from savings on picks in the first 10 rounds. 

Round 12 - Micah McDowell - OF - Oregon State - Literally no one must like this guy the way I do.  But I see him as a solid senior signing and I don't necessarily see any of my other day 3 picks being impacted by using a relatively early day 3 slot to pick McDowell.  I mean, look at the stats: .403/.505/.667/1.167.  He has stolen less bases this year but he plays CF and stole 15 last year and 25 the year before in summer ball in only 35 games! As was said about Holmes, the Guardians scouting Bazzana would have gotten plenty of looks at McDowell as, except for a period where he was injured, he hit 2nd in the OSU order, right behind Bazzana.  If we can get him here I say why not?  

Round 13 - Draft Eligible College Sophomore - This is a placeholder for a player in this category.  It will be an overslot signing, maybe up to $300,000.  I think this player will ALSO be a position player although he could play anywhere on the field with catcher being a potential surprise position if they find the appropriate one available to them at this point.

Round 14 - Colby Holcombe - RHP - Mississippi State - Another guy, like Coppola with good size and bad stats, Holcombe is a perfect fit for the Guardians.  I think it will cost them a little more money to pry him away from college (probably $200,000) just to show him we are serious and convince him that he is not likely, based on his track record, to do any better if he goes back to college for another year.

Round 15 HS P Flyer #2 - I put a name to this spot in my last mock but let's leave this one open...and just remember the guy I suggested before, in case it actually happens I can puff out my chest about it.  See him as a $300,000 signing.

Round 16 - Injured college pitcher #1 - There are a number of these guys out there but I don't want to single one out.

Round 17 - HS Pitcher Flyer #3 - Like Zinn from last year, probably closer to $150,000 than $300,000, but still overslot.

Round 18 - Injured college P #2 - Again, don't want to put a name on this one but they are out there.  This is just a placeholder for someone.

Round 19 - Injured college pitcher #3 - Matt Willadsen - RHP - NC State - Willadsen would have been a senior but was injured this winter and missed the entire season.  He would be a cheap sign and I like what I read about him.

Round 20 - JUCO Draft-and-follow - This is a placeholder for someone we will draft who is going to a junior college in the 2024/2025 school year who we can sign up until the date of the 2025 draft for as much as $225,000 without it counting against our 2024 draft budget.  Normal ceiling for a bonus that doesn't count against your budget is $150,000.

2024 Draft - Part 21 -It's July 7th and The Cleveland Guardians Are Exactly One Week From Being On The Clock

 OK, the Guardians are not only in the home stretch of the marathon that is draft preparation, they are in the last 100 yards!

So, what are my thoughts for the evening of July 7th?

• The Pirates top selection last year, Paul Skenes, was either the top or 2nd best prospect in the draft in 2023 and the Pirates selected him at 1-1, giving him the top bonus in draft history. Now he's an MLB All-Star.
• In 2021 the Pirates selected the 5th best prospect in the draft, Henry Davis, to save money for later picks(s).  Henry Davis has a sub-Mendoza ML BA and is looking more and more like a failure.  
• Matt Underwood, on the TV broadcast today, came off as an advance apologist for the FO by pointing to a draft 10 years ago with VERY misleading stats.  He said the top two guys from that draft never even made the majors but suspiciously failed to point out that the top guy, Brady Aiken, didn't sign because an injury was discovered after he was drafted.  He also didn't mention that the Guardians shocked the world a year later and wasted their #1 pick (and millions of dollars) in a gamble that Aiken was better, and healthier, than he had appeared the previous year.  Picking an injured player that they hoped was a steal, they were wrong.   A conspiracy theorist could say that this is all just part of the setup for when the Guardians make a stupid selection at 1-1 in an attempt to save money and for their scouting director to show that he is the smartest guy in the room.   That same conspiracy theory could apply to Jensen Lewis pimping JJ Wetherholt as the Guardians' #1 pick and how exciting a player he is.
• Talking about Aiken, the Guardians also used their #1 pick in 2022 on an injured player, Chase DeLauter and, guess what, he is still injured.  Hey, he's a good prospect but he has been injured most of his career.  Even at that, he was only the 16th overall pick who was projected before the 2022 to be a top-5 selection.  So, in essence, they got him as a bargain.  Nonetheless that bargain came with risk that is now playing out.  
• Nothing has changed for me.  Bazzana is the top selection and, frankly, anyone besides Bazzana is just the Guardians' scouting director thinking he is going to outsmart all the other scouting directors, trying to make himself look like the smartest scouting director in baseball.  That is a recipe for disaster for a club that has NEVER had the 1-1.
• No one has provided a pathway where there are player(s) who are guaranteed to be there who we would target savings   It's never just as simple as spreading the money around as you really have no idea who will be available later and whether they will be worth the money you have to spread around...or whether they will even sign for the money they agreed to sign for.  Alex Mooney from last year is the perfect example.  The Guardians had what they thought was a deal with Mooney but after the draft he changed the amount he wanted, asking for $1 millon.  That caused the Guardians to not have the money to sign Marohn and/or Heuer.  Even the Pirates, in 2021, used the savings on Bubba Chandler, meaning that they picked someone who is now just the 63rd best prospect in baseball and it cost them $3 million (basically that year, mid-first round money).  In contrast, the #1 prospect in 2021 was Marcelo Mayer, who is now the #10 prospect in baseball.  So, was Henry Davis and Bubba Chandler worth more than Marcelo Mayer?  At best this looks like an even swap meaning that taking the expected pick, Mayer, was the best way to go as you would have at least had one top prospect.
• Hey, Bazzana is not Paul Skenes.  Anyone who knows the draft knows that this is a weak draft.  Still, the only way for me that Bazzana should not be the Guardians' #1 pick is if:
• Bazanna has a serious hand/wrist injury from when he was hurt earlier this year that probably will require surgery (e.g., some bone graft procedure) and an extensive healing process resulting in an uncertain outcome.  Note that this IS a real possibility as his post-injury stats were really pathetic this year and his post-season performance was terrible.
• Charlie Condon is a cheater.   You can't deny the stats but there are question marks.  Like his BB/K rate is 57/41 (in 304 PA) but, if you remove the 28 intentional walks and the 4-pitch 'unintentional' intentional walks, his actual BB/K rate is 25/39.  If his power numbers are artificially inflated, with his adjusted mediocre walk rate, he is a candidate for mediocrity as a ML player, although he STILL will be a ML regular.

So, there it is.  The more 'spin' I hear from the media, the more I think we are in trouble as a team for this draft.   People will tell you that you can't judge a draft right after it and have to wait years.  I disagree but I do agree on one thing.  By the time, a few years down the road, when you get absolute confirmation you screwed up a draft, it has done irreparable harm to a small market club like Cleveland.

I repeat: Paul Skenes is an all-star.  Henry Davis is a likely bust.  Don't make the Pirates 2021 mistake as I doubt, unlike the Pirates, we get to do it right by having the 1-1 again two years later.

The 1-1 was a gift the Guardians, as a franchise, didn't deserve, based on their record.  Don't waste it trying to show that your scouting director and department is smarter than the rest of baseball.  Do the right thing.  You have enough position player talent in the minors right now.  what you DON'T have is that Jose Ramirez impact talent and that, if everything else is OK, is Bazzana.

Pick Bazzana!  Anyone else, at this point, unless there are some serious problems with Bazzana, would be trying to be cute.  Don't try to be cute.  You're not smarter than the rest of the Scouting Directors in baseball.  Pick Bazzana and make smart picks after him.  Cleveland needs this for a healthy future that doesn't require expensive free agent signings...something that is not likely to happen here.

How To Keep This Rolling - Part 3 - No, Really, We NEED To Make Trades

Many Guardians' fans are currently thinking 2 things about our team:

• We need 1-2 starting pitchers and an impact bat, preferably a RFer or CFer, before the deadline.
• We need to trade some of our prospect depth at AA and AAA to fill those needs.

The problem with that is two-fold:

• With all the injured pitchers in MLB and all the teams STILL in contention 25 teams within 5.5 games of a Wildcard or Division Championship berth), the competition for sarting pitching will be fierce at the deadline.
• Competition for ANY player at the deadline will be fierce
• It sounds like the Yankees, Orioles, Phillies and Dodgers, the four teams with the best chance to make the WS this year, will be active players at the deadline so any deadline improvement teams like the Guardians make at the deadline will likely be offset when some or all of those 4 teams make a bigger splash.

It is obvious that the Guardians have an excess of prospects, a lot of it being ML-ready or close to it.  But what is NOT so obvious is that, given the performance of those prospects this year, they will likely HAVE to make some deals by the November roster freeze or almost surely lose a good number of players in the Rule 5.

Yeah, yeah, I know. People like me warn about losing players in the Rule 5 every year and it (almost) never happens.  But I am telling your, it is REALLY going to happen this winter unless the Guardians do something.  Let's take a look at the numbers (with minor league options still available entering 2025) who will likely occupy space on the 40-man roster:

Pitchers (17): Allen, Bibee, Cantillo, Clase, Curry, Espino, Gaddis, Hentges, Herrin, Karinchak, Lively McKenzie, Morgan, Sandlin, Smith, Stephan, Williams

Catchers(2): Bo Naylor, Fry

Infielders (10): Arias, Brito, Gimenez, Manzardo, Angel Martinez, Josh Naylor, Jose Ramirez, Rocchio, Schneeman, Tena

Outfielders (6): Brennan, Freeman, Kwan, Noel, JRod, Valera

Yeah, you can debate about Karinchak, McKenzie, Allen, Arias and even Rocchio, but I don't honestly believe that the Guardians would non-tender or DFA any of these guys as they all have significant upside both in trades and in future development.  

So there you have it.  Right now, IMO, the Guardians are looking at 35 rock solid spots on the 40-man roster.  So we have 6 spots left to add this off-season IF we don't sign any free agents.  Let's look at who might fill those spots:

Returning players (2): Bieber, Avila

Players eligible for the Rule 5 draft not currently on the 40-man (ones in bold are top 40 prospects (my ranking) in the Guardians' organization):  

Pitchers (13): Doug Nikhazy (AAA), Will Dion (AAA), Franco Aleman (AAA), Nick Mikolajchak (AAA), Andrew Misiaszek (AAA), Ryan Webb (AA), Tommy Mace (AA), Aaron Davenport (AA), Lenny Torres Jr. (AA), Trenton Denholm (A+), Ethan Hankins (AA), Alonzo Richardson (A), Yorman Gomez (A)

Infielders (5): Dayan Frias (AA), Milan Tolentino (AA), Maick Collado (AA), Jose Devers (A+), Juan Benjamin (A+), 

Outfielders (4): Petey Halpin (AA), Alexfri Planez (AA), Wuilfredo Antunez (A), Esteban Gonzalez (A), 

So, without even dipping into the guys who might be flyers as Rule 5 picks (Halpin, Frias, Mikolajchak, Misiaszek, Planez), we are talking about about 1/4 of our top 40 prospects, with 7 being pitchers in AA or AAA, who are very easily projectable to make the Guardians' ML roster sometime in 2025.  

Those 7 pitching prospects, along with our glut of ML middle infielders, represent the real problem here.  All the other guys on the non-40-man roster list above are typical Rule 5-eligible guys.  That is, guys who are selectable but have little chance to stick on a ML roster in 2025.  Some small chance but very little.

But those 7 pitchers, added to maybe Bieber and Avila, represent 9 guys battling for 5 40-man roster spots.  So maybe FOUR guys will be lost for nothing, either to free agency or to the Rule 5.   That's not acceptable for a small market club.

And that's if we don't make any trades or acquisitions.  They also represent guys who might be good enough to keep us from wasting resources in trades if they can fill SP roles next year.

So, between the middle infielder excess who we can't find playing time for, and SP prospects who we can't protect AND maybe a couple of outfielder prospects, we need to make a trade...or two...or three.

Fans may think we need to make those trades to make us more competitive this year.   But what we need to make trades for is to clear some roster space AND make us more competitive this year AND in the future.  The question is, will the market allow us to do that and will our FO be savvy enough to make that happen?

Let's hope they can.

July 2, 2024 - Thoughts For A Tuesday Morning

1. Draft 2024 - What did he mean by that?  Should I be worried?

Chris Antonnetti said in an interview yesterday that he doesn't expect to know who the Guardians will select #1 in this year's draft until right before the draft.  This is a little scary to me because it MIGHT insinuate a couple of things:

• That their #1 pick is going to be a fluid situation, meaning there will be plenty of room for their scouting director to try to show the world that he is the smartest draft director in baseball.
• That they likely are trying to get deals in place with over-slot bonus players in later rounds which brings up two red flags: (1) will those guys still be there when the Guardians want to draft them and (2) if they are still there will they really be worth the money or will this just be another example of this draft director trying to show everyone how smart he is and overpaying for guys that no other team will pay that much for...which is NEVER a good thing.

...or it could just mean that they aren't willing to commit to a player now because something might come up late in the process that would move them off a certain player (e.g, injury, drug use, personality issues). 

...or, as my wife said, it could just be his way of saying 'mind your own business' and that asking that was a stupid question that the media should have known better than to ask.

Let's hope it's one or both of the latter two!

But let's assume for the second it was one of the first two.

Right now, from everything I have read, the #1 pick could be a two-horse race:

• January's #1 prospect - JJ Wetherholt
• May's #1 prospect - Travis Bazzana

I also believe, as many others do, that this will come down to money, which probably eliminates Charlie Condon, who, as a draft-eligible sophomore, will probably not settle for a lot less than slot money.  Hopefully, and I repeat, HOPEFULLY, they are not seriously considering Chase Burns (huge reliever risk) or Jac Caglianone (huge chase rate).  Again, and I will likely say this dozens of more times before the draft, Burns and Caglianone would be picks where our scouting director thinks he knows more than the rest of the industry.  So let's hope at no point in the first 5 rounds of this draft does he act like that.

So, will we pick the early #1 or the later #1?  If I had to bet, I would say the following:

• If the bonus they are searching for is $8.5 million or less they will draft JJ, giving them $2 million extra to work with later in the draft
• If their bonus target is $9.5 million or less, they will likely draft Bazz, giving them over $1 million more to work with but $1 million less than if they could snag JJ at $8.5 million.

Two things to consider here:

• JJ is currently 4/5 in most rankings.  The last team to take a college player that low at 1-1 was the Pirates with Henry Davis in 2021.   
• The Pirates saved a lot of money (almost $2 million) but spent all of that and more on Bubba Chandler (#63 prospect overall right now) a HS pitcher but prospective college quarterback.  

The key here is that Chandler was going to college to play football and baseball and they had to offer him an obscene bonus ot $3 million to get him off that commitment.  Chandler was picked at #72 but was the 21st best prospect, matching the slot value that was almost identical to his eventual bonus.  

I think a good case can be made that the Pittsburgh scouting director tried to show he was the smartest guy in the room and we found out that, in fact, he wasn't.  Let's hope the new Cleveland scouting director doesn't repeat that mistake.  

...and let's hope Antonnetti was just deflecting a question that the media should have known he would never answer.

2. It's not enough.  It's NOT enough.

Currently, the algorithm that Baseball Reference uses to calculate a team's chances in the post-season sayings that Cleveland has a 98.5% chance of making the playoffs and a 10.6% chance of winning the World Series which, I think, is one of the top percent chances currently in baseball.

Yet the Twitter fanbase is nervous.  This makes me think of two things:

First, I remember in the NFL playoffs of 2021 when the Browns played the Steelers.  They were putting up points like crazy in the first quarter and I remember thinking when it was 21-0, "It's not enough, they need to put up more points".  Then it went to 28-0 and I felt a lot more secure.  Anecdotally, I later talked ot my brother who was watching the game in a different city and he had EXACTLY the same thoughts at EXACTLY the same time.

So I get the feeling that Cleveland sports fans have.  We are only happy when we know the outcome is absolutely not in doubt.  Other than that there is always the trepidation that the sky will symbolically fall in and the unthinkable will happen.  I get it.

Second, I remember a poster that a colleague had hanging on the wall of his cubicle of a vulture sitting on a cow's skull in the desert with the caption "Patience?  Hell.  Let's just go out and kill something".

I get that emotion, too, as it feeds into the first point above.  

So, let's address the need for trades right now:

(1) It would be great to trade for a starting pitcher.  Notice I didn't say we NEED to trade for a starting pitcher.  The latter will only be true if Gavin Williams tanks in his starts before the all-star break.    So right now it would be nice, but it may turn into NEED

(2) Almost every team in baseball is still in the playoff race and almost every team in baseball needs pitching and, with so many starting pitchers injured, good pitching is at a premium and every available SP will be the subject of a bidding war.

There is a sentiment among those "It's not enough" people who likely make up the vast majority of Guardians' fans that we don't have enough to even win the division and that, in no way, can we compete with the Yankees, Orioles and Dodgers in the playoffs as we don't have enough ammunition in our magazine.  

But let's set things straight:

1. Yes, it would be nice to gain talent separation between us and Minn and KC.  But at what cost?

2. There is no way that I can to gain in talent on the Yankees, Dodgers or Orioles.  Any trade we make will surely be bested by the Yankees and Dodgers meaning that even if we go all in on 2024 the gap beween us and them is gonna get greater and the odds of us beating them is going to get smaller.

So, we are back to "At what cost". 

I am going on record as saying that we need more starting pitching (maybe 2 guys) from the trade market and we could use a good RHH outfielder who can play RF or maybe even CF.

So the only question, as I said above, is at what cost?  Hey, read my blog post

Cleveland Guardians Perspective: How To Keep This Rolling - Part 2 - Time For Some Trades - But Who Do We Trade? (ciperspective.blogspot.com)

I am willing to trade just about anyone to improve our 2024 team.  But the question is not who I would trade but whether we get equal value back.  This is Cleveland.  The talent going out HAS to equal the talent coming in.  We can't buy our way out of a mistake.  

So, my call to the FO is to make a deal or two but don't overpay.  If you are forced to overpay then don't make a trade.  Another example I fall back on:  The A's asked for THREE top 100 prospects in baseball from us for Sean Murphy and eventually accepted ZERO top 100 prospects from Atlanta/Milwaukee in the trade for Murphy.  There isn't much argument now that the best player in the trade that left Atlanta went to Milwaukee, not Oakland.  

We need to do something but not overpay.  In a seller's market, that is a tough sell to Cleveland fans, especially those who have seen top prospects, Freeman, Arias, Rocchio, JRod, Osacar Gonzalez, Bobby Bradley, etc. struggle and us get nothing back for them.  

But the FO needs to stay the course.  They know what our prospects are worth and they shouldn't just throw guys away because we have duplicates.  They SHOULD trade those duplicates away to get value back.   Be creative, guys.  Get us some pitching and some veteran hitting but don't overpay.

It sounds easy, right? Good! Now go get it done.

3.  This is the most crucial series of the year.

Literally, every series from now to the end of the season could have that label slapped on it.  But, in reality, we do need to win a good number of games before the all-star break.  This means, to me, that:

(1) We need to win the series against the White Sox to keep up what we need to do.  Sweeping them would be a tough task but if we do that it would help immensely.

(2) We need to win the series against the Giants.  I doubt we sweep them but it could happen as they remind me, to some extent, of Toronto at this point.

(3) We need to go 2-2 against the Tigers.  3-1 is optimal but a split is necessary.

(4) We need to win one game in Tampa to go 1-2 there.  Tampa is playing better and we need to scratch out a game against them in anticipation of Minn and KC doing no better than that when they play a similar team to TB.  

If you look at it in sum, that means we need to go 7-6 in the games before the all-star break.  9-4 is optimal but 6-7 would be the lowest we could go and, depending on how Minn and KC do, even 6-7 could cause us to lose a lot of our lead.  

So, 7-6 is the standard and 9-4 is the goal.  Anything above 9-4 and I think we enter the trade deadline period in a strong position to do something if it makes sense but not in a position where we feel any pressure to do something.

There you have it. 

Go Guardians!