No news yet on Jones. Now with Bieber signed for approximately $420K we have a really good idea about what we have to work with in terms of bonus excess for Jones plus guys after round 10.
Again, there are two ways we can go here: sign Jones or sign a number of guys after the 10th round. With about $1 million over slot to work with (plus the $100,000 bonus slot each of these guys get) we can sign a whole slew of guys or we can sign Jones. Even Jones can be signed for $1.95 million we could have enough extra cash to sign ONE quality guy after round 10.
So what would you rather have:
a. Jones for $2.3 million
b. Jones for $1.9 million plus maybe Baird
c. Our second round pick back next year plus Baird, Crowe and Amditis or Shenton.
This is a tough call as it is quality vs quantity. Still, if it was up to me, if I could sign Baird, Crowe and Amditis, I would offer Jones a little over slot and, if he didn't sign, let him go.
Rumor is that Calica has signed and it might be $50,000 over his $100,000 slot. Don't like it if it is over slot because he is redundant to Allen and others. Would have rather applied that to a HS pitcher's bonus.
Wednesday, June 29, 2016
Tuesday, June 28, 2016
Trade target - notice this is NOT a plural
Looking at Paul Hoynes' recent column in the Plain Dealer I am underwhelmed by the players he mentions. He mentions John Jay. I live in St. Louis where he played up to this year and he is not what we need by any stretch of the imagination. The rest of these guys are shopping in the bargain basement and I don't think that will help us win this year or next year. We may get these guys without giving up top prospects but they won't be difference makers and so I would not trade for any of them.
So, here, in my opinion, is our trade target: Ryan Braun
Yes, this guy is the face of the Brewers.
Yes, it will take a haul of prospects to get him, minimally Clevinger, Clint Frazier and Erik Gonzalez. We might even have to throw in Lonnie Chisenhall which might be acceptable if they gave us a good lefty reliever back in addition to Braun.
Yes, by the time Braun's contract ends we will regret this deal as his production by that point is likely to underwhelm his salary (just like Albert Pujols' salary looks incredibly stupid right now, given his lack of production). We will also regret the prospects we give up as they will be blossoming at just about the time Braun is declining.
But I think for that very reason the Brewers might do this deal. I think they realize in their division that they better start forgetting about the present and focusing on 5 years down the road, a time when Braun will be pretty old and his contract will have expired, anyway.
I think we can win this year and next year, and maybe the year after that, with Braun and a healthy Brantley if the rest of the team stays healthy. For that reason and the length of Braun's contract I do this deal. It is such an anti-Indians deal as we love our prospects in Cleveland but, at the same time, you rarely have all the pieces we have in place right now.
Ryan Braun is no LeBron James but I think he is the elite hitter missing in this lineup. That is all I think we need, in addition to a good lefty reliever, of course.
So, here, in my opinion, is our trade target: Ryan Braun
Yes, this guy is the face of the Brewers.
Yes, it will take a haul of prospects to get him, minimally Clevinger, Clint Frazier and Erik Gonzalez. We might even have to throw in Lonnie Chisenhall which might be acceptable if they gave us a good lefty reliever back in addition to Braun.
Yes, by the time Braun's contract ends we will regret this deal as his production by that point is likely to underwhelm his salary (just like Albert Pujols' salary looks incredibly stupid right now, given his lack of production). We will also regret the prospects we give up as they will be blossoming at just about the time Braun is declining.
But I think for that very reason the Brewers might do this deal. I think they realize in their division that they better start forgetting about the present and focusing on 5 years down the road, a time when Braun will be pretty old and his contract will have expired, anyway.
I think we can win this year and next year, and maybe the year after that, with Braun and a healthy Brantley if the rest of the team stays healthy. For that reason and the length of Braun's contract I do this deal. It is such an anti-Indians deal as we love our prospects in Cleveland but, at the same time, you rarely have all the pieces we have in place right now.
Ryan Braun is no LeBron James but I think he is the elite hitter missing in this lineup. That is all I think we need, in addition to a good lefty reliever, of course.
Soccer shoutout
OK, I am not a big soccer fan although I always wanted to be a soccer goalie but I am so old that Wickliffe HS did not have a soccer team when I was going to school. I played a little there in college intramurals and indoor later on....but enough about me.
In the world of sports the Indians 10 game winning streak was just an afterthought compared to yesterday's result in the European soccer championships. Just have to give a shoutout to Iceland. I watched the entire game yesterday because I love an underdog story. The announcers on ESPN, thick with Great Britain accents, were HYSTERICAL. The way they were talking, the coach for England should have walked out to the center of the field (pitch) at the end of the game and eviscerated himself in front of the entire crowd. They mentioned the names of England's soccer organization executives in a tone that made me think that they wanted those in England to know so that people would know who to make fun of and whose cars to egg the next day. They complained how England would take four or five passes to get the ball back to the same spot where they took possession of it. They complained about the players playing badly. They said how embarrassing it was for English soccer, how it was the worst moment for them in the history of the soccer, how embarrassing it was that the richest professional soccer league in the world could produce players who played this badly. The even invoked the horrendous US victory over England in 1950 which, apparently, previously set the standard for English ineptitude losing to a team totally devoid of any soccer ability at all.
Then there was Iceland. The team that actually beat England. Yes, they did show up. And they could play, despite the media stats about how there were more registered soccer players in Rhode Island than in Iceland and how 8% of Iceland's population was at the game (we all know that 20 years from now it will appear that 200% of the country attended the game). No, in fact England did not lose on two 'own goals". Iceland actually scored twice. Amazing! In Iceland they now have about 21 hours of daylight. Maybe the longest daytime party in history! I can see the movie title now: "The miracle on pitch". I wonder if Kurt Russell is available? As I said, I love an underdog story.
In the world of sports the Indians 10 game winning streak was just an afterthought compared to yesterday's result in the European soccer championships. Just have to give a shoutout to Iceland. I watched the entire game yesterday because I love an underdog story. The announcers on ESPN, thick with Great Britain accents, were HYSTERICAL. The way they were talking, the coach for England should have walked out to the center of the field (pitch) at the end of the game and eviscerated himself in front of the entire crowd. They mentioned the names of England's soccer organization executives in a tone that made me think that they wanted those in England to know so that people would know who to make fun of and whose cars to egg the next day. They complained how England would take four or five passes to get the ball back to the same spot where they took possession of it. They complained about the players playing badly. They said how embarrassing it was for English soccer, how it was the worst moment for them in the history of the soccer, how embarrassing it was that the richest professional soccer league in the world could produce players who played this badly. The even invoked the horrendous US victory over England in 1950 which, apparently, previously set the standard for English ineptitude losing to a team totally devoid of any soccer ability at all.
Then there was Iceland. The team that actually beat England. Yes, they did show up. And they could play, despite the media stats about how there were more registered soccer players in Rhode Island than in Iceland and how 8% of Iceland's population was at the game (we all know that 20 years from now it will appear that 200% of the country attended the game). No, in fact England did not lose on two 'own goals". Iceland actually scored twice. Amazing! In Iceland they now have about 21 hours of daylight. Maybe the longest daytime party in history! I can see the movie title now: "The miracle on pitch". I wonder if Kurt Russell is available? As I said, I love an underdog story.
Monday, June 27, 2016
Ben Baird - maybe this will help signing him!
Maybe we have LeBron James talk to our 20th round draft choice about signing with the Indians. Maybe we can throw in him getting to spend a day with and go one-on-one with LeBron if he'll sign with the Indians :-)
https://twitter.com/benbaird21
https://twitter.com/benbaird21
Sunday, June 26, 2016
Updated predictions (includes short season teams)
Indians 90-72 - Wild card winner, division series winner, league championship winner, world series winner.
Minor league records:
Columbus: 70-74
Akron: 80-64
Lynchburg: 76-68
Lake County: 76-68
I posted the above back at the end of March in the 25-man roster post. Now that we have the draft results in and we know who we are going to sign, here are my short season team predictions
Mahoning Valley 32-44
AZL Indians - 33-23
It is really hard to project results for the Dominican team but let's say they will finish 2 games over .500 just to have a prediction in.
Minor league records:
Columbus: 70-74
Akron: 80-64
Lynchburg: 76-68
Lake County: 76-68
I posted the above back at the end of March in the 25-man roster post. Now that we have the draft results in and we know who we are going to sign, here are my short season team predictions
Mahoning Valley 32-44
AZL Indians - 33-23
It is really hard to project results for the Dominican team but let's say they will finish 2 games over .500 just to have a prediction in.
2016 Draft - the currently unsigned guys
OK, the Indians are busily signing guys, more guys than I thought they would. With the July 15th deadline not that far off, let's look at the guys who haven't signed and find out what our chances are of signing them and, frankly, what guys we should sign.
First, let's look at the Indians farm system. Last year we drafted a number of HS pitchers. That followed getting Justus Sheffield and Justin Mayweather the year before that. So, in the low minors we are pretty well set with high end prospect pitchers. In the upper minors we are a little thinner and aside from Mike Clevinger, we are looking at mostly #4-5 starters and relievers...but the cup is far from empty in terms of AA/AAA pitching prospects. We are weak at catching prospects, strong at first base and a little thin in the outfield except for our high end guys, Zimmer and Frazier. Most of our other OF prospects are slap and run guys. Middle infield is solid. Third base, beyond Urshela, is questionable but if Urshela comes on we are set there and clearly at utility INF.
Our ML team is set at starting pitching and is a little weak in most of other positions. Assuming we can pull off an opportunisitc trade for a starting OFer and a quality LOOGY we might lose most of our quality OF prospects and perhaps a middle infielder and a pitcher. For me the target would be Ryan Braun and that would probably cost us at least Clevinger, Erik Gonzalez and Clint Frazier and we might have to throw in Chisenhall, too. Maybe we could get a LOOGY from them, too.
So, with that in mind, let's look at the guys who we haven't signed:
Nolan Jones - He gives us a potentially impactful third base prospect. I don't know if he will be in the same category but I look at him like Matt Whitney when we drafted him. We all know he is the key signing but he is not the only one we need to sign.
Shane Bieber - He, along with Civale, gives us more #4-5 guys and if the Indians have scouted well, maybe one of these guys turns into a closer with a bump in MPH when they go to the bullpen. We have a number of these guys at the upper levels of the minors but are missing these types from last year's draft so signing Bieber would be good. Signing him for under slot would be better as we look to sign flyers.
Andrew Calica - I don't see the reason for signing him. Greg Allen is looking great, Gabriel Mejia has some upside and Connor Marabell and Nathan Lukes also have some promise. If he will sign for $100,000 or maybe $125,000 then I say maybe. However, how many non-power OFers does an organization need if those guys hardly ever make an impact at the ML level now. Twenty-five years ago, maybe, but Michael Brantley is more the prototypical non-40 HR outfielder now and I don't see Calica (or Allen) putting up numbers like Brantley's. Maybe Almonte numbers but those are AAA numbers, really.
Zack Smith, Blake Sabol, Mike Amditis - I think the chances of signing all these HS catchers went out the window when we signed Ice and Tinsley. I think these three guys were contingency guys if we didn't sign Ice or Tinsley. Since we have signed those college catchers and with the presence of Daniel Salters, spending money on HS catchers is pretty much a waste and given the quality of these guys, I think they all will and, frankly, probably should go to college. I would love to sign all of them for $500,000 total but I really think that would be unneeded by us and unfair to them.
Ben Baird - I think that signing him makes the most sense. He is highly rated and Jones will probably end up at third base so having another MIF prospect a year behind Wakamatsu and two years behind Krieger and Mathias makes sense.
Wil Crowe - I LOVE this guy but I think signing him will be a waste of money. I think he will ask for too much and would rather get two HS guys instead of him.
Chris Farish and Kramer Robertson - Every year we draft some college players who decide to go back to college to play another year. These two guys (and maybe Crowe) are likely to be this year's versions.
Auston Shenton, Spencer Steer, Armani Smith - One of these guys would be nice but, again, I don't know if we have the money and I think maybe they were just contingencies if we didn't sign Jones. I originally thought they might be contingencies if we didn't sign Cantu and had budgeted $500,000 for him but since Cantu signed for slot, my guess is that these three guys were contingencies just for Jones not signing.
Nelson Alvarez, Mason Studstill, Andrew Baker - I love these HS pitcher types and some of them work out (See Shawn Morimando). Others end up being first or second round picks 3 years down the road leaving me to always ask myself 'What if we would have signed this guy?' So, if you can sign one or two and not break the bank, I say go for it. This is a classic example of the more depth you have the better chances you have of getting a guy to the majors. Frankly, though, if we signed all three the likelihood is that only one of them would make a major impact.
Alfonseca and Sinatro - I wonder if these two guys were just recognition signings. That is, they have no chance to sign but we are doing them a favor by drafting them so they have on their resume that they were drafted in the ML draft. Maybe like Wakamatsu we have a chance but, more often than not, these types of picks
DeVries and Burgos - I think both will/have signed.
So, that's it. If we get Jones, Bieber and Baird I will be very happy with this draft. If we get Crowe or one of the HS pitchers, as well, I am over the top happy.
First, let's look at the Indians farm system. Last year we drafted a number of HS pitchers. That followed getting Justus Sheffield and Justin Mayweather the year before that. So, in the low minors we are pretty well set with high end prospect pitchers. In the upper minors we are a little thinner and aside from Mike Clevinger, we are looking at mostly #4-5 starters and relievers...but the cup is far from empty in terms of AA/AAA pitching prospects. We are weak at catching prospects, strong at first base and a little thin in the outfield except for our high end guys, Zimmer and Frazier. Most of our other OF prospects are slap and run guys. Middle infield is solid. Third base, beyond Urshela, is questionable but if Urshela comes on we are set there and clearly at utility INF.
Our ML team is set at starting pitching and is a little weak in most of other positions. Assuming we can pull off an opportunisitc trade for a starting OFer and a quality LOOGY we might lose most of our quality OF prospects and perhaps a middle infielder and a pitcher. For me the target would be Ryan Braun and that would probably cost us at least Clevinger, Erik Gonzalez and Clint Frazier and we might have to throw in Chisenhall, too. Maybe we could get a LOOGY from them, too.
So, with that in mind, let's look at the guys who we haven't signed:
Nolan Jones - He gives us a potentially impactful third base prospect. I don't know if he will be in the same category but I look at him like Matt Whitney when we drafted him. We all know he is the key signing but he is not the only one we need to sign.
Shane Bieber - He, along with Civale, gives us more #4-5 guys and if the Indians have scouted well, maybe one of these guys turns into a closer with a bump in MPH when they go to the bullpen. We have a number of these guys at the upper levels of the minors but are missing these types from last year's draft so signing Bieber would be good. Signing him for under slot would be better as we look to sign flyers.
Andrew Calica - I don't see the reason for signing him. Greg Allen is looking great, Gabriel Mejia has some upside and Connor Marabell and Nathan Lukes also have some promise. If he will sign for $100,000 or maybe $125,000 then I say maybe. However, how many non-power OFers does an organization need if those guys hardly ever make an impact at the ML level now. Twenty-five years ago, maybe, but Michael Brantley is more the prototypical non-40 HR outfielder now and I don't see Calica (or Allen) putting up numbers like Brantley's. Maybe Almonte numbers but those are AAA numbers, really.
Zack Smith, Blake Sabol, Mike Amditis - I think the chances of signing all these HS catchers went out the window when we signed Ice and Tinsley. I think these three guys were contingency guys if we didn't sign Ice or Tinsley. Since we have signed those college catchers and with the presence of Daniel Salters, spending money on HS catchers is pretty much a waste and given the quality of these guys, I think they all will and, frankly, probably should go to college. I would love to sign all of them for $500,000 total but I really think that would be unneeded by us and unfair to them.
Ben Baird - I think that signing him makes the most sense. He is highly rated and Jones will probably end up at third base so having another MIF prospect a year behind Wakamatsu and two years behind Krieger and Mathias makes sense.
Wil Crowe - I LOVE this guy but I think signing him will be a waste of money. I think he will ask for too much and would rather get two HS guys instead of him.
Chris Farish and Kramer Robertson - Every year we draft some college players who decide to go back to college to play another year. These two guys (and maybe Crowe) are likely to be this year's versions.
Auston Shenton, Spencer Steer, Armani Smith - One of these guys would be nice but, again, I don't know if we have the money and I think maybe they were just contingencies if we didn't sign Jones. I originally thought they might be contingencies if we didn't sign Cantu and had budgeted $500,000 for him but since Cantu signed for slot, my guess is that these three guys were contingencies just for Jones not signing.
Nelson Alvarez, Mason Studstill, Andrew Baker - I love these HS pitcher types and some of them work out (See Shawn Morimando). Others end up being first or second round picks 3 years down the road leaving me to always ask myself 'What if we would have signed this guy?' So, if you can sign one or two and not break the bank, I say go for it. This is a classic example of the more depth you have the better chances you have of getting a guy to the majors. Frankly, though, if we signed all three the likelihood is that only one of them would make a major impact.
Alfonseca and Sinatro - I wonder if these two guys were just recognition signings. That is, they have no chance to sign but we are doing them a favor by drafting them so they have on their resume that they were drafted in the ML draft. Maybe like Wakamatsu we have a chance but, more often than not, these types of picks
DeVries and Burgos - I think both will/have signed.
So, that's it. If we get Jones, Bieber and Baird I will be very happy with this draft. If we get Crowe or one of the HS pitchers, as well, I am over the top happy.
Saturday, June 25, 2016
Julio Franco - Mr. 3028?
First, I have long thought the Indians never did enough to keep (and especially to bring back) their best players of the 80s/90s. Jim Thome, Manny Ramirez and Oscar Vizquel. Two them are definitely HOFers if no PED involvement is discovered. The question has raged as to whether we did enough to keep them originally and whether we did enough to bring them back later in their careers. I have ALWAYS been about how HOFers make your franchise. Living in St. Louis and seeing the monuments around there I can imagine my grandkids at Progressive Field climbing around on statues of Thome and Vizquel and, had things broken differently for their careers, statues of Ramirez, Albert Belle and Carlos Baerga. I still hold hope that Vizquel and Thome go in as Indians although that is far from a sure thing. Still, they made their name and fame in Cleveland so I can hope that common sense wins out and they go in as Indians.
But what does all this have to do with Julio Franco? Well, the recent discussion about Ichiro and the Pete Rose hit record brings something up that I have written about before: Does Julio Franco beling in the HOF? Well 3000 hits is still a good indicator of HOF status and if you count Franco's two years in Japan and one year in Korea he as 3028 hits. That doesn't even count his one season in the Mexican League. So if we are going to have a discussion about Ichiro being the all-time hits leader then I think the veterans committee, when the time is right, should have a serious discussion about putting Julio Franco in the Hall of Fame. Hey, I don't know if he would even go in as an Indian and the Indians could have secured that if they would have signed and played him those three years. I know a lot of this is on Franco as he followed the money (and the guaranteed playing time) outside of the US. Instead of taking a minor league deal or having to wait and hope he got a late contract (see Marlon Byrd this year) he took good money and went to play overseas. Nonetheless, I think these stats count. His history shows that had he been in the majors those four years he played outside the country he could have probably gotten to 3000 hits. Just wish the Indians, in his case and others, would have done more to secure these guys getting into the HOF with the Indian "C" on their bronze non-talking heads!
In my book Julio Franco is a HOFer. Maybe the Ichiro hit record discussion will bring light to Julio Franco's status, as well. Let's hope so and let's hope he goes in as an Indian.
But what does all this have to do with Julio Franco? Well, the recent discussion about Ichiro and the Pete Rose hit record brings something up that I have written about before: Does Julio Franco beling in the HOF? Well 3000 hits is still a good indicator of HOF status and if you count Franco's two years in Japan and one year in Korea he as 3028 hits. That doesn't even count his one season in the Mexican League. So if we are going to have a discussion about Ichiro being the all-time hits leader then I think the veterans committee, when the time is right, should have a serious discussion about putting Julio Franco in the Hall of Fame. Hey, I don't know if he would even go in as an Indian and the Indians could have secured that if they would have signed and played him those three years. I know a lot of this is on Franco as he followed the money (and the guaranteed playing time) outside of the US. Instead of taking a minor league deal or having to wait and hope he got a late contract (see Marlon Byrd this year) he took good money and went to play overseas. Nonetheless, I think these stats count. His history shows that had he been in the majors those four years he played outside the country he could have probably gotten to 3000 hits. Just wish the Indians, in his case and others, would have done more to secure these guys getting into the HOF with the Indian "C" on their bronze non-talking heads!
In my book Julio Franco is a HOFer. Maybe the Ichiro hit record discussion will bring light to Julio Franco's status, as well. Let's hope so and let's hope he goes in as an Indian.
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