Thoughts for a Thursday

LOGAN ALLEN 

In spring training Logan Allen was quoted as saying:

“Force my way, kick the door down,” Allen said. “Let everybody know that that Logan Allen that was not throwing strikes, not throwing hard, inconsistent, kind of a fringe four-A player -- that's not me. I'm here to get outs in the big leagues, I'm here to help the Indians win and I think I've done a pretty good job of showing it up to this point."

When I read that at the time I thought to myself 'Here is a guy who is either really kicking down the door or here is a guy who has rabbit ears (and eyes) and follows the trolls on the internet too much".

Well, after 5 starts it seems like that trolls are winning.  When I saw him walk off the mound today I saw a guy who was talking to himself and not in a lost way or in a mad way like "I will never let that happen again" because, if he really did feel like that, he would have made a change somewhere in his last 3 starts.   At one point today he had allowed 6 HRs to the last 12 batters he faced, which makes him a great guy to have on the mound if you are in a HR derby competition, not a ML starting pitcher.    His body language when he walked off today APPEARED TO ME like someone who felt like the world was against him and he couldn't catch a break.   Not like someone kicking the door down.  The Indians talk about him controlling his emotions.  When I hear that and see him I see a guy with a chip on his shoulder who is not using that chip as motivation.

He needs to go down to the minors and he needs to work on his game.   At the same time, the Indians need to give someone else a chance.  If Allen TRULY wants to get better and TRULY is not a 4-A player like the trolls must be saying he is, then the Indians can develop him into a good starter.   The issue is, when he walked off the mound today I saw a guy who either did not have the stuff to be a major league starter or one who was deceiving himself that he was ready to be a major league starter.  

JOSH NAYLOR

I don't think that any of us thought that Josh Naylor was ever going to win a Golden Glove award.   That being said, the Indians thought they were getting a guy who was a potential outfielder who could hit for some power and have some plate discipline who, if he couldn't play the OF could be a good guy to play first base in a pinch.   I saw Brent Rooker, a middling prospect for Minnesota suited more for LF/1B and DH who has hardly, if ever, played in Progressive Field before this series, make a great sliding attempt to catch Ahmed Rosario's drive down the RF line.   Yeah, he didn't catch the ball that hit him in his glove but comparing that to the ridiculously bad effort Naylor made on Cruz's drive to the same corner in this series as well as a number of other gaffes and near miscues he has made in RF this year makes me realize even more that the guy should not be in our OF.   So we have a need at 1B so we put him there, right?   Well, that may work eventually.   He has made some nice plays there but had the one Buckner-esque error to cost us a game and then bobbled an underhand flip from the pitcher that a 9 year old could have caught.  These are the plays that a major league fielder MUST make.  Right now the Indians are better with Franmil Reyes in RF than Naylor, especially with Naylor's lack of power and lack of plate discipline which totally exposes Reyes in front of him as everyone knows Naylor can't impact the offense if they pitch around Reyes.  In fact, Reyes will hardly ever even let himself be pitched around so having no protection behind him increases the odds that he will not become the hitter he can be.

JAKE BAUERS

The guy has started to hit the ball so he will be able to continue renting locker space at Progressive Field for the next week or more, I guess.   But, again, looking at body language, it almost seems like Bauer is listening to the trolls as well and for some reason is thinking that his performance, or lack thereof, is somehow acceptable from a major leaguer.  What he has done in this series is only delaying the inevitable...and in a very detrimental way to the health of this team as he is giving the FO that stuck with him for no apparent reason coming out of ST more of a chance to say "Well, there may be something there afterall.   We just need to keep playing him to find out for sure."  So Bauers needs to bring out his best impersonation of Mike Hargrove which, to me, is his upside and actually start contributing to this team's offense because, if he thinks his performance this year is anything BUT what a 4A guy would put up, then he is deluding himself.    

Hey, we took 2 of 3 in this series, something we desperately needed.  Is today's loss a killer?  No.  But it does again expose the problems with this team.  Bobby Bradley may not be the next coming of Babe Ruth but I would rather see Bradly flail away for a month than see Bauers and even Naylor's empty at bats.  At least we got to see some of our young pitchers perform well this series so, while it is a shame to see Oliver Perez go (true professional in every way) at least it is for youth rather than some 4-A guy.

 

Let's talk the football draft for a second

 OK, this is a baseball blog.   I get it.   There are a whole bunch of bloggers smarter about the Cleveland Browns' draft then I am.   So to all of you, forgive me for stepping in to your lane. That being said, here we go.

Using Andrew Berry's premise, you draft NOT for right now need but for eventual need.   Basically, you have the luxury, when you are the Browns of 2021, of drafting the best player on the board, right?

Or....you could go a totally different direction.   I am on the bandwagon that the Browns have too many draft picks for the slots on their 2021 roster.  So what do we do?

In a nutshell here is what I would do, if it is doable:

Scenario 1: If Zaven Collins is already off the board:

1. Trade the #26 pick and our second 4th round pick (#132) to the Miami Dolphins for their picks (#36 and #50) - It gives the Dolphins 3 first round picks, all of which are eligible for the 5th year option and gets us two picks in the second round.   This, to me, gives us more in the way of long-term assets that Berry was talking about.

At this point the Browns would own picks #36, 50, 59, 89, 91, 110,  This is where I would end the Browns draft.

2. Trade our remaining draft picks we have (169, 211, 257) for fill-in veterans.   After the regular 4th round the draft gets very messy with all the compensatory picks. Plus, although I am no cap expert, it looks like doing this will also shrink our draft cap hit.   I don't know by how much but maybe it will help.   Again, I am not an NFL expert but I have to imagine that we could take on a salary or two and still be under our cap.

3. Trade Odell Beckham Jr. for whatever useful veterans you can get and then sign Nick Chubb to an extension using that money.

Scenario 2: Draft Zaven Collins at #26

1. Trade #132, 169, 211 and 257,  to the Eagles for their #84 pick, leaving us with 6 draft picks (Collins, #59, 84, 89, 91, 110).   

2. Trade Odell Beckham Jr. for whatever useful veterans you can get and then sign Nick Chubb to an extension

In both scenario #1 and #2 I try to re-sign Sheldon Richardson if I have cap space left.  In scenario #1 if I have the cap space Stephen Gilmore is one of the guys I target for those picks I want to trade.

OK, how about that for an uneducated foray into the Browns NFL draft.  No knowledge and some research but, essentially, throwing stuff against the wall and seeing if it will stick.

It's time to face the truth...and make some changes...now!

 I am getting tired of reading (and writing) about:

• How Dolan is cheap
• How the Indians trade away their ML hitters 
• How they don't bring in free agents who can hit

While all of those things may be true, it isn't the root of the Indians' hitting problems.  Not even close.

The root of the Indians' hitting problems is the lack of quality hitting coaches at the major league level.

Frankly, in my opinion, these guys suck and should be replaced.  

Let's look at our young hitters:

• Chang: .179 ML average before this year,  .188 this year
• Bauers: .201 in TB, .226 in Cleveland before this year: .180 this spring and ;129 this year
• Daniel Johnson: 1-12 last year, didn't get out of ST this year
• Bradley Zimmer: .241, .226, .162 and didn't make it out of ST this year.   Every spring he seems to have a new batting stance.
• Bobby Bradley: .178 last year and no improvement this year
• Josh Naylor: He has been here about a year and his power has totally disappeared as has his plate discipline.  

Plus now they have Nolan Jones under their control, and his prospect status keeps declining compared to prospects in other systems.  Plus he still can't hit lefties.

Finally, look at all our major league hitters.  None of the younger guys are making improvements or are even able to maintain their production from past years with other organizations.  

Who is the one hitter in the minors everyone is talking about: Owen Miller, who was trained by the Padres and who we haven't had a chance to mess up yet.

Compare that to Aaron Civale.   He worked with our ASSISTANT pitching coach, Ruben Niebla over the winter and remade his whole delivery.  Plus Brian Shaw has remade his whole delivery.   Obviously a lot of this was done before he came back to the Indians but the Indians have helped him maintain his recent success.  Plus, look at the stats for Karinchak, Maton, Wittgren (until this year), the work they are doing with the starting pitchers and the work with the minor league pitchers, especially the relievers and the emergence of Clase.

How many of those pitchers are not making any progress?  Close to zero.

How many are regressing?  Again, close to zero.

It is simply not possible that EVERY hitting prospect we have sucks and every young major league hitter we have is incapble of improving while almost every pitching prospect is improving and ML pitchers are, mostly, getting better, some at a startling rate.

While it may not be obvious to anyone else it is really obvious to me.    While the ownership has not helped us by not spending enough on hitting and the FO has hurt the hitting by showing an incapability to bring in good hitters while trading good pitching, the true reason that this team is losing is because the hitting coaches can't turn decent major league prospects into even mediocre ML hitters and can't help our experienced hitters avoid long slumps.

You can't fire all the players so you fire the coach or manager responsible for their failure.   Fire our hitting coaches and bring in someone good.

And, DFA Bauers and bring up Bradley.   I don't care that he is not hitting well at the alternate site.   That shouldn't matter.   Just like it didn't matter that he outhit Bauers in ST.    It is time for a change and it is time to give Bradley the bulk of the at bats for the rest of the season to see what we have.   

What do we really have here and can we make it better internally?

 Saturday's defeat was potentially devastating but as I went to bed Saturday night I thought back to last year and, although I can't remember when, I know we had one or more of the same type of devastating defeats.

Sunday brought Bieber being Bieber and the stop to a  losing streak.  

Taking 1 of 3 from Cincinnati was the minimum I expected which makes Saturday's defeat that much more crushing as we had our #5 against the presumptive ace of the Reds staff, albeit in his first start of the season still trying to shake off the rust.   But, still.   Saturday's win would have helped us immensely with most of our division struggling right now in one way or another.

But, after today's game, I find myself still asking the question: What is this team going to grow up to be this year and how can we, internally, make this the best version of itself?

I know this is going to sound like a broken record but here goes:

Starting rotation - Looking at the minors this is as good as it gets right now and Allen and McKenzie jockeying back and forth for who is #4 only helps.   If Zach Plesac is not hurt and just is suffering from a dead arm this rotation is good to go.

Bullpen - I see no cracks in this bullpen.   I would like to see Quantrill and Stephan stretched out more as well as seeing Quantrill used in the 7th/8th inning high leverage situations to spell Shaw and Karinchak but, for the most part, not only is this bullpen performing solidly, I don't see any real holes in it at the moment.  

Catcher - This is as advertised and is good at the top and passable (defensively) at the bottom

Infield - Besides Hernandez not hitting, I think we are set at 2nd, SS and 3rd.   First base is another question.   I would still like to see us get rid of Bauers and bring up Bradley.    Bauers can't hit in a hitting position on the field.   We need Bradley.   Chang (INF) and Naylor (1B, LF, RF) being the utility guys make perfect sense to me in a contending team.  Having Ahmed Rosario to play SS against tough lefties really helps

Outfield - Rosario in LF, Rosario in CF and a combination of Luplow and Naylor in RF looks good to me.  I still would like to see Bradley Zimmer up instead of Gamel because, like Gamel, he can play all 3 OF positons and there is a chance Zimmer can actually hit.

DH - Reyes 

On offense we are living by the HR.   Just like in the beginning of previous years, our situational hitting frustratingly sucks raw eggs.  If we can steal some bases and do better in situational hitting we should be OK.   I can't believe that what I saw in Arizona out of Hernandez was just a mirage.   That is the player he is and him getting back to that level is, to me, the key to his lineup, along with two other things: Bradley comes up and hits like he did in the spring and Chang building on his recent success and getting his power stroke back.   These two changes and natural improvement as the weather warms up, if our pitching holds up, could dramatically help the W-L percentage going forward.  We just need a spark to get our offense to catch fire.   I think that spark comes from Bradley and a resurgent Hernandez with Chang's continued improvement as the icing.

Hey, we are still in the meat of this meat grinder part of the schedule.   It could all go south in the next two weeks.   Or it could take off.   So far I don't see much evidence to say that the 2021 Indians look that much different, all things considered, from the 2020 Indians.    So far!

You're a freakin' major leaguer. Catch the freakin' ball!!!!!!!!!

 N/T

Rant for a Friday morning

 Rant 1 - The Yankees suck and they have too much money

Right or wrong, one of the first things I taught my daughter to say when she was little was "The Yankees suck and they have too much money."   Real story!

At NJ.com Mike Rosenstein wrote an article about the Yankees Rule 5 losses this winter.  Here's the link:

Ex-Yankees prospect struggling with Indians following Rule 5 Draft - nj.com

In the article he seems to relish that Trevor Stephan has given up 4 runs in 4 innings.   He also talks about how Garrett Whitlock has been uber-successful for the Red Sox and how Kyle Holder was not successful in the spring and was sent back to the Yankees.

Well here's to you Mike.  I think it is time for you to move out of your bedroom in your parents' basement decorated from floor to ceiling with Yankees memorabilia and get your own place.   In case you aren't aware, here are two truths:

• The Yankees suck and they have too much money, meaning they can buy their way out of shortfalls in their farm system and free agent mistakes and
• The Rule 5 draft and the 6-year minor league free agency thing were set up because teams like the Yankees would just buy up all the talent and let them languish in the farm system, essentially keeping other teams from getting their hands on good prospects.

Trevor Stephan is a Cleveland Indian BECAUSE the Yankees don't have enough room on their roster for guys like him because of free agency and signing veterans to large contracts.   Without a salary cap the Rule 5 is one of the few parity-creating rules in baseball other than draft ordering and bonus caps for draftees/international signings.   

But that doesn't matter to you, does it Mike?  You just want all the prospects for your bloated salary team because, well, they are the NY Yankees and they just deserve it, right?

BTW, if Phil Maton had done his job on Wednesday, Trevor Stephan would have been looking at 4 IP and 2 ER for a respectable 4.50 ERA.   Instead, Maton titrated in the two hitters Stephan left on base, the second on a bases-loaded HBP, before looking out at the bases and realizing the next guy who scored actually went on his (Maton's) ERA.   [NOTE: I know that wasn't really what Maton was thinking and I know he was trying hard but this is one my biggest pet peeves in baseball, inherited runners scored, especially when it happens to rookies like Stephan.]  What makes it even worse is that indiscretion by Maton brings out roaches from the floorboards like Rosenstein who then writes about Stephan sucking meaning that there is hope that the Yankees can get him back.    

Mike, using 'logic' that I know must resonate with you, why would the king-of-baseball Yankees even want Stephan back if he couldn't even stick with the sucky, low payroll Cleveland Indians?   

Rant 2 - What is the statute of limitations on changing an offiical scorer's decision

Sorry, readers (all 3 of you!) but for a while, every time Logan Allen pitches, I will bring this up (at least for a start or two more).   In his first start Allen allowed two runs that were deemed earned because a one-hopper to Amed Rosario at SS that hit him in the gut was ruled a base hit instead of an error.   I hate that Merrifield then hit a HR and Allen got charged with 2 ER instead of those runs being unearned.    

If there isn't a statute of limitations on changing official scorer decisions (I think there is and I think it is 24 hours) then if I was the Indians I would continue to bring this up to the powers that be.   Logan Allen should have ONE earned run allowed up to this point, not THREE.   Now that may all be moot if he gets bombed in his start tonight but, if he doesn't and continues to have success, small things like this may be the difference between winning ROY and not winning it (unless of course he is competing against a player who plays for a big market team which means Allen is screwed anyway).

Rant 3 - Jake Bauers and Ben Gamel are still on the ML roster

There is no text associated with this rant.

...and we split!

 Thoughts on today's game and the series:

1. Assuming that Plesac is not hurt and his outing is just a dead arm glitch (he was only hitting 90 mph on his fastball) our pitching looked good in this series.   This weekend, with Allen and McKenzie going back to back in the Ohio Cup series, we will know more about the back end of our rotation.

2. Regarding Allen, is there a statute of limitations on changes in official scorer's decisions?   ln Allen's first start Rosario muffed a two-out grounder right in front of Whit Merrifield's HR.   It was ruled a hit which made the runs earned.   If Gimenez's play in the 9th today was an error then Rosario's play in the game against KC was CLEARLY an error and Allen should be charged with two less earned runs.   Just sayin'.

3. This game showed, once again, that we don't need to score that many runs to win, given our pitching.   We just need to score some runs.   Which brings me to my Austin Hedges comment.   His sacrifice was really important and, given his inability to hit, I think we need to treat him like a pitcher and have him sacrifice in every situation with less than two outs and a runner on.   Yeah, it is demeaning to the guy as a hitter but he hits like a weak hitting pitcher so, there's that.

4. How many of us think Oscar Mercado or even Delino Deshields gets to both the first inning blooper by Moncada and the 9th inning blooper by Mercedes?   I know that thought crossed my mind today.   There are two ways not to make errors:  (a) be a good outfielder and (b) don't get to any balls.  I am OK with Rosario in CF but he will cost us runs.  BTW, I think Zimmer gets to Roberts' drive in the 9th.   Naylor looked terrible on that ball and it is not the first time he looked terrible in RF this season.  He is not adding a lot on offense so what, exactly, is he adding over Zimmer?  Naylor misplayed a couple of other balls in this series.   He is not a right fielder, sorry to say.   What will we do with him now as he is an intriguing prospect?   Send him to the alternate site and let him work on his defense and on his batting eye so he can take more walks?

5. Civale is tough.   I mean, after that first inning he was just nasty.   Was he Rodon nasty?  No, but he was nasty.   Can't wait to see what our minor league system does with continued work with Hentges, Moss, Eli Morgan, Joey Cantillo and others.

6. Bauers got two hits today.  (I won't mention his two Ks, one with two runners in scoring position).

7.  Talk about Chang-like feast or famine.   Gimenez has a double, drives in a crucial run with a groundout and then lets that popup drop and muffs the groundball in the 9th.  Similar to Chang's evening on Monday.

8.  What the heck happened on Reyes' drive?  Did he hit it with topspin?   The Indians have had a number balls they hit this year that we all thought were gone and they died on the warning track.    Whereas when the other team hits the ball it seems to carry better.   I don't get it.

9. I still love Gimenez at SS and at the plate.   Although the results aren't always there when he is hitting, he just looks the part of, someday soon, becoming a really good hitter.

10. On to Cincinnati for the Ohio Cup this weekend!  As always, it is a fun series.

11. Final Note: Splitting the series against the White Sox this early in the year IS huge.  I am very happy to get out of town with that split.