Wednesday, January 5, 2011

In What Slots Do The Indians Draft in 2011

It's never too early to talk about the 2011 First-Year Player Draft.  I have come up with the current draft order (could still change significantly) with currently awarded compensation picks in each round included.   Using that data (see bottom of this posting) and knowing that the Indians finished 2010 with the 7th worst record in baseball, they will currently draft at the following slots:

First round: 8th overall selection
Second round: 62nd
Third round: 92nd
Fourth round: 123rd
Fifth round: 153rd
Sixth round: 183rd.

The above is the best case scenario.  If all 8 of the remaining compensation free agents (see below) sign with other teams, the Indians will have the following slots unless, of course, they sign aType A free agent (highly unlikely) which would eliminate their 2nd round pick.  Outside of that unlikely circumstance, in the worst case scenario the Indians would draft

First round: 8th overall selection
Second round: 70th
Third round: 100th
Fourth round: 131st
Fifth round: 161st
Sixth round: 191st

1/6/11: NOTE: Baseball America has just updated their list to include Type B free agent compensation for Orlando Hudson (who I forgot to add even though I took him off the FA list) and Kevin Gregg.  This brings the total slots by the end of the supplemental round  to 57, meaning that the Indians will now pick 8th, 72nd, 102nd, 133rd, 163rd, 193rd and so on.  There are still 7 compensation free agents unsigned meaning we could still end up at 8th, 79th, 109th, 140th, 170th, 200th and so on if they all sign with new teams.  Remember the Mets were at 7, 59, 89, 122, 152 and 182.

To put this in perspective, last year the Mets, who finished with the 7th worst record in 2009, had the following draft slots assigned to them in 2010:

First round: 7th overall
Second round: 59th
Third round: 89th
Fourth round: 122nd
Fifth round: 152nd
Sixt round: 182nd

So, as you can see, the Indians already have lower draft slots in EVERY round than the Mets did last year and it is only likely to get worse.......9-13 slots per round worse!

While the Indians found a way last year to still get talent by using the formula I have been suggesting for years (sign top talents who have dropped and pay them bonuses that will get them signed) it does get harder as, each round, you chances of getting that top talent goes down the lower you draft in that round.  If those last 8 compensation free agents sign, dropping 9-13 slots compared to where the Mets drafted last year is a huge blow.

Let's hope Brad Grant pulls some rabbits out of his hat like he did last year.  I am not saying it can't be done, because it can.  It has just become harder.

If you want to see my work that led to the above, see below.  I extracted data from and to put this list together.

First Round
1. Pirates
2. Mariners
3. Diamondbacks
4. Orioles
5. Royals
6. Nationals
7. Diamondbacks (for failure to sign 2010 first-rounder Barret Loux)
8. Indians
9. Cubs
10. Padres (for failure to sign 2010 first-rounder Karsten Whitson)
11. Astros
12. Brewers
13. Mets
14. Marlins
15. Brewers (for failure to sign 2010 first-rounder Dylan Covey)
16. Dodgers
17. Angels
18. Athletics
19. Red Sox (from Tigers for Victor Martinez, Type A)
20. Rockies
21. Blue Jays
22. Cardinals
23. Nationals (from White Sox for Adam Dunn, Type A)
24. Rays (from Red Sox for Carl Crawford, Type A)
25. Padres
26. Red Sox (from Rangers for Type A Beltre)
27. Reds
28. Braves
29. Giants
30. Twins
31. Yankees
32. Rays
33. Texas (from Phillies for Cliff Lee, Type A)

Supplemental First Round
34. Nationals (Dunn)
35. Blue Jays (for Scott Downs, Type A, to Angels)
36. Red Sox (Martinez)
37. Rangers (Lee)
38. Rays (Crawford)
39. Phillies (for Jayson Werth, Type A, to Nationals)
40. Arizona (for Adam LaRoche, Type B, to Nationals)
41. Mets (for Pedro Feliciano, Type B, to Yankees)
42. Rockies (for Octavio Dotel, Type B, to Blue Jays)
43. Blue Jays (for John Buck, Type B, to Marlins)
44. White Sox (for J.J. Putz, Type B, to Diamondbacks)
45. Padres (for Jon Garland, Type B, to Dodgers)
46. Giants (for Juan Uribe, Type B, to Dodgers)
47. Twins (for Jesse Crain, Type B, to White Sox)
48. Yankees (for Javier Vazquez, Type B, to Marlins)
49. Rays (for Joaquin Benoit, Type B, to Tigers)
50. Blue Jays (for Miguel Olivo, Type B, to Mariners)
51. Padres (for Yorvit Torrealba, Type B, to Rangers)
52. Twins (for Orlando Hudson, Type B, to Padres)
53. Rays (for Randy Choate, Type B, to Florida)
54. Padres (for Kevin Correia, Type B, to Pirates)
55. Rays (for Brad Hawpe, Type B, to Padres)
56. Pirates
57. Mariners
58 Diamondbacks
59. Orioles
60. Royals
61. Phillies (from Nationals for Werth)
62. Indians
68. Blue Jays (from Angels for Downs)
92. Indians

Supplemental Third Round
116. Mariners (for failure to sign 2010 third-rounder Ryne Stanek)
123. Indians

Fifth Round
153. Indians

Sixth Round
183. Indians

Slots for future rounds will increase by 30 slots per round (e.g. 7th round will be slot 213) until teams start passing.

There is a chance that each of the Indians’ slots after the first round could drop by up to 8 spots due to the remaining Type A and Type B compensation players (see list below).  Each of these players, if they sign with another team, would cause an additional spot to be added in the supplemental first round.

Remaining Type A Compensation Free Agents (former team in parentheses)
Starting Pitchers: Carl Pavano (Min).
Relief Pitchers: Rafael Soriano (TB), Grant Balfour (TB).
Remaining Type B Compensation Free Agents
Third Basemen: Felipe Lopez (Bos).
Relief Pitchers: Kevin Gregg (Tor), Trevor Hoffman (Mil), Aaron Heilman (Ari), Chad Qualls (TB).

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