Looking back on my 2011 predictions

Here were my 2011 predictions withML Indians

Record: 67-95
Biggest surprise: Tony Sipp, Matt LaPorta
Biggest disappointment: Fausto Carmona
MVP: Choo
Rookie of the year: Jason Kipnis
Results: Kipnis and Carmona were right.  The record and LaPorta were wrong

Columbus Clippers
Record: 80-64 (IL Champion...again)
Biggest surprise: Jordan Brown
Biggest disappointment: Nick Weglarz (due to injuries), Jess Todd and possibly Josh Judy
MVP: Cord Phelps
Best prospect: Jason Kipnis
Prospects having success in the majors in 2010: Putnam, Chisenhall, Judy, Phelps, Brown, Alex White
Comments: There is enough backup in the majors, enough polishing that needs to be done and enough sense by the Indians to not start the service time clocks of a number of these guys too soon that we will see guys staying at AAA way too long this year.   The bullpen will especially be chomping at the bit but guys will just have to wait their turn.   This team is just so solid that I can't see them not excelling.  Plus, with the guys stacked up on this roster, even a little turnover shouldn't stop them.  With most of that turnover being in August, this team should cost into the playoffs and get a boost from AA for their playoff run.

Results: The record, Kipnis, Weglarz, Todd and Chisenhall were correct.  Putnam, Judy were OK, Brown, Phelps and maybe Alex White were wrong. 

Akron Aeros
Record: 60-84
Biggest surprise: Juan Diaz
Biggest disappointment: Matt Packer, Kyle Bellows, Joe Gardner
MVP: Kelvin De la Cruz
Best prospect: Kelvin De la Cruz, Drew Pomeranz, Chun Chen
Prospects making the majors: C.C. Lee, Nick Hagadone
Comments: There will be so much traffic through  Akron this year (up and down) that this team will just never get it going.  Not that there aren't good prospects.  I see 4-5 of these guys being on the ML roster when we make our first big run in 2013.  Things just won't go well for this team this year.  It's just one of those things.

Results: Diaz, Bellows, Gardner, Packer, Hagadone, Pomeranz, Chen were right.  Lee would have been had he had to be rostered.  De la Cruz was wrong and the record was wrong.

Kinston Indians
Record: 79-75
Biggest surprise: Bo Greenwell, Chris Jones
Biggest disappointment:  Tyler Holt
MVP: Abner Abreu, Drew Pomeranz (won't be around long enough to qualify)
Best prospect: Drew Pomeranz, TJ House
Guys with an outside shot of playing in the majors: Chris Jones
Comments: Let's call this the make-or-break team.  So many prospects on this team are in their final year of being a prospect, at least from my perspective.  Guys like McFarland, Mahalic, Greenwell and even Clayton Cook, Roberto Perez and Giovanny Soto have got to make a name for themselves.  Guys like Maty Popham and Tyler Sturdevant and Delvi Cid have to make a difference and really advance their game or they become 100% organizational soldiers.

Results: Pomeranz was right and the record was close to correct, most of the rest of this was just flat out wrong.  Not dead wrong but wrong, nonetheless.  House and Abreu stunk it up. Chris Jones was good but not great.  Holt was a disappointment, just not a huge one.

Lake County Captains
Record: 84-60 (champions again)
Biggest Surprise: Jesus Aguilar, Govanny Urshela (his power and hitting)
Biggest Disappointment: Tony Dischler, Trey Haley, Alex Lavisky and Tony Wolters (the latter two due to injury and inexperience)
MVP: Kyle Blair
Best prospect: Kyle Blair, Cole Cook, Michael Goodnight, LeVon Washington, Giovanny Urshela, Tony Wolters, Alex Lavisky
Comments: The backup of starting pitching up the organization will cause Dischler, Blair, Cook, Goodnight and Haley to remain at LC for most of the season.  That bodes well for LC as they are quality pitchers pitching below their level for most of the year. 

Results:  Wow!  Aguilar was correct and Lavisky was correct.  Most of the rest of it was dead wrong.  Man, I would have bet a lot of money back in April that LC dominates.  Instead, they have one of the worst if not THE worst year in franchise history.  By the end of the year Jesus Aguilar was their best prospect and believe me folks, that is NOT a good thing.

So my predictions were nothing to write home about with my prediction of the ML team's record leading the way.  Still, I made some good predictions along the way. 

Let's gear up for next year and the 2012 draft (see below!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)

WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

On a night that I am crowning as the single greatest night of baseball in history what is lost is that the Indians finish with the 15th worst record in baseball in 2011.

If you have been reading here you know the significance of that.  The Indians has secured the 15th selection in the first round of the 2012 baseball draft meaning that if they sign a Type A free agent this winter they will sacrifice their second round pick which would conceivably as low as the 75th pick next year.

This is HUGE for a small market team.  If they win tonight they move ahead of Washington and to the 16th slot in the draft, losing their first round pick if they sign a Type A Free Agent. 

But they pulled it out.  For those of you who are interested here is the 2012 first round draft order:

NOTE: Ties in records are broken by looking back over the previous season's records.  The team with the lowest record last year gets the higher draft pick.  If two teams had the same record last year, you would look two years ago and so on.

1.Houston	56	106	0.346
2.Minnesota	63	99	0.389
3.Seattle	67	94	0.416
4.Baltimore	69	93	0.426
5.Kansas City	71	91	0.438
6.Chi Cubs	71	91	0.438
7.San Diego	71	91	0.438
8.Pittsburgh	72	90	0.444
9.Florida	72	90	0.444
10.Oakland	73	88	0.453
11.Colorado	73	89	0.451
12.NY Mets	77	85	0.475
13.Chi White Sox	79	83	0.488
14.Cincinnati	79	83	0.488
15.Cleveland	80	82	0.494
16.Washington	80	81	0.497
17.Toronto	81	81	0.5
18. LA Dodgers	81	79	0.506
19.LA Angels	86	76	0.531
20.San Francisco	86	76	0.531
21.Atlanta	89	73	0.549
22.Boston	90	72	0.556
23.Toronto (For failing to sign Tyler Beede)	XXX	XXX	XXXXX
24.St. Louis	90	72	0.556
25.Tampa Bay	91	71	0.562
26.Arizona	94	67	0.584
27.Detroit	95	67	0.586
28.Milwaukee	96	66	0.593
29.Texas	96	66	0.593
30.NY Yankees	97	65	0.599
31.Philadelphia	102	60	0.63

Congratulations Indians on not screwing up your 2012 draft with a meaningless win on the last day, unlike last year where you let Washington, and, as a result, Arizona, creep by you in the draft.

So, Indians, knock yourselves out.  Break the bank to bring some bats in here if it is an impact guy.  No more Delluccis or Oldbertos, though.

Musings for Sunday September 11, 2011

I was driving to work when I heard of the plane crashing in New York.  I got to work in time to see the second plane crash into the other tower and, of course, the aftermath of the towers collapsing.

Baseball is a game and we all can get very impassioned about our game.  However, I think to a person, this country is united.  The esprit de corp generated by the terrorism of September 11, 2011 has not been lost.  That day will remain in the collective memory of Americans and, I hope, the whole world, as should the dates and details of other seemingly inhuman acts should that bring our resolve to be a decent, caring, compassionate species that reviles against behavior this type of behavior and these types of acts.

As far as baseball goes, I have to laugh when I read know writers like Terry Pluto and Dennis Mannoloff pile on the Jerad Head's struggles in his 23 ABs with the Indians.  What they fail to tell you is that Head played his first pro ball at 23 coming from the little college of Washburn KS.  He wasn't even drafted.  He was a huge work in progress when the Indians drafted him.   He is so new to pro ball that he is not even going to be a 6-year minor league free agent this winter.  So, he isn't exactly like the plethora of AAAA players who have failed at the major league level who the Indians bring in here seemingly every year when they could be using their own rookies.

Yeah, Head struggled mightily here.  But he was coming down from a hot streak when he was called up and, truth be told, he does have some holes in his swing.  However, so does Shelly Duncan, Austin Kearns, etc.  The difference is that Head hasn't failed at multiple major league attempts like so many AAAA players have.  Sure, Head needs to be introspective this winter and figure out how to plug the holes in his game.  However, to minimize what Head is and might be is bush league and I have told both Pluto and Mannoloff that in e-mails.

Along the same lines Pluto writes that the Indians are probably going to bring Jack Hannahan back.  So, Hannahan is having a career year and, as a result, the Indians are thinking of bringing him back?   The guy is a AAAA player and, most likely, will revert to being a AAAA player.  His OPS was about .630 before this year and so this year is most likely an aberration.  The Indians have painted themselves in a corner with this Ubaldo Jimenez trade.  They need to go all in to put this team in a position to win the next two years and Jack Hannahan, Chad Durbin and Shelly Duncan are NOT going all in.  And, even if they don't want to go all in next year and spend a lot of money, it makes no sense to keep these AAAA players on their roster when they have minor leaguers who deserve and need a good look.  

If you are going to keep Jason Donald on your roster you need more pop out of your other utility infielder than you get with Jack Hannahan, outstanding defense notwithstanding.

So, the writers for the Cleveland Indians did not distinguish themselves this week.   They parroted what they heard from the Indians FO.  They should have more sense than that.   Next thing you know they will be talking about how we should bring Shelly Duncan back based on his recent 7 game stretch  that stands out in his otherwise lackluster, AAAA-like 170+ game big league career that spans over 4 years.    These guys would have been good writers in the kingdom where the emperor had no clothes.

We need a late-season run...

...to the cellar.  The Indians have the 14th best record in baseball at 70-71.  Translated into meaningful terms they have the 16th worst record which means, if they hold that spot they will lose their first round draft pick next year if they sign an arbitration-offered Type A free agent this winter. 

Right now, looking at teams with 70 or more wins, they realistically have a chance of finishing anywhere from the 18th worst record to the 12th worst record.  Why this also stinks is because, unless something strange happens, the Indians will not be getting any extra draft picks next year.  If they lose their first round pick they might not be drafting until around the 80th pick in the draft.  That would be a recipe for disaster for a small market club.

They need that first round pick.  I am OK with giving up that second round pick for a good Type A free agent. 

Go Tribe!  Play those rookies and watch yourselves rise, uh, fall in the standings.

Not at the Head of the class

Jerad Head was designated for assignment today after 23 big league ABs.  Meanwhile Shelly Duncan is still here.  While I understand the move's justification (Head is only 2-23) the move makes no sense.  Why is Duncan still here?  Why is he not with a contender?  He is hot now, pushing his BA above .250 for the first time in a long time and hitting some HRs.  Instead of PLAYING him thinking that he may magically become more than the AAAA player he has been, maybe you should trade Duncan now while some other team might be fooled.

Just a thought...if you believe in giving guys more than 23 ABs.

Hey, if he clears waivers maybe Head will get to play in the IL playoffs yet.

The ironic thing about this move is that it was made to give Trevor Crowe more playing time.  Hey, we need to make a final judgement on Crowe and that was difficult with him being on the DL all year.   The comical thing is that Crowe = Brantley in my opinion and those two are just slightly greater than Carrera and Carrera or Crowe/Brantley is who Tim Fedroff, Jordan Henry, Tyler Holt and maybe even Bo Greenwell may turn into when they grow up, assuming everything goes well for them.  Interestingly, of the punch and judy outfielders we have had in the past 4 years the guy who is having the best career is the one we let get away as a 6-year minor league free agent: Jose Constanza.

Constanza has passed the 100 AB mark for Atlanta this year, his first in the Braves system and first AFTER he left the Indians' system.  He is hitting .327 with an OPS of .773...in the middle of a pennant race!  And we never even gave him a chance in losing seasons and let him walk for nothing.

So, it is comical that the Indians are now giving another punch and judy hitter another opportunity and, in so doing, DFAing Head.  Hey, the odds of Head ever making it as big in the majors as he did in the minors were slim.  However, I would rather watch him grow in the majors than watch the nth version of Mr. rag arm punch and judy hitter patrol the Indians outfield.

You know how you know you are the Cleveland Indians?  When you have 6 guys of the same ilk and the one you let get away is showing the most potential.

Quick update

Hindsight as the season slips away:

How does it look now keeping Shelly Duncan, Chad Durbin, Jack Hannahan and Joe Smith?

Had we traded them in July or August we might have had something in return plus we would have saved a few bucks that we could have applied to the Latin FA market or Peters/Tarpley or others.  If any of these guys are on this team next year it is a mistake.  Anything we could have gotten for the first 3 would have been a plus and the playing time created by their leaving would have given the younger guys who replaced them a leg up for next year.  Yeah, like Jerad Head, they may have struggled at the beginning.  However, like Chisenhall, those struggles may have been something that would have given them experience not to allow it to happen again next year. 

Minor League Playoffs

Congratulations to Columbus and Kinston for making the playoffs. Their two rosters could not have been much different.

Columbus' roster is filled with prospects of some ilk.  Only a handful of the guys on the current roster AAAA players (Carlin, Phillips, Buck, Johnson, Reyes, Copeland, Martinez and Huffman), a couple are major leaguers who are struggling (Talbot and LaPorta).  The remaining 14 guys on the active roster are prospects of some ilk.  That is amazing considering from the opening roster they have lost Kipnis, Donald, Phelps, Carrera, Head, Gomez, Huff and Judy and also lost Hagadone who just passed through, Barnes who is hurt and a few guys who were C prospects who were traded.    Compare their roster to their first round opponent, Durham.  Durham historically loads their AAA team with AAAA players and this year is no different.  They have 19 of their 24 players who are 27 years of age or older and their roster has an average age of 27.3 years while Columbus, even with the late season influx of Copeland, Buck, Johnson, Crowe, LaPorta, Talbot and Reyes, average 26.4, almost a full year younger.

On Durham's roster they have megaprospects Matt Moore, Chris Archer and Tim Beckham, but few other real prospects.  We have Chen Lee, Zach Putnam, Zach McAllister, Corey Kluber, Matt Langwell, Jared Goedert, Beau Mills, Luis Valbuena, Tim Fedroff, Thomas Neal and, on the DL, Scott Barnes.  So Tampa is more likely to get better major leaguers out of their three guys, but we have a lot more pieces, some of whom may become more than they currently are and most of whom should have some form of big league career, even if it is just a cup of coffee. 

Contrast that to the Kinston roster.   Looking critically at that roster there is not one future major leaguer on it right now.  Yeah, Tyler Holt, Roberto Perez, Jesus Aguilar, Giovanni Soto and some of the other guys have outside chances to maybe become bit players in the majors some day, this roster is loaded with organizational soldiers whom the manager, Aaron Holbert, has molded into a playoff team.  This guy definitely deserves manager of the year for his job in putting together the second best record in the CL this year.  The advantage is experience and I think Kinston has more experienced players than I can remember them having.  Not AAAA guys but, rather, guys who are older players with much more experience in the game.  Adam  Abraham, Jeremie Tice, Bo Greenwell, Roberto Perez, Preston Guillmet, Kyle Landis, Toru Murata, etc. are not great prospects but they have lots of experience playing the game.

So, go Clippers and Indians.  You give us something, prospect-wise, to root for between now and the AFL.  That is, because we didn't trade our expendable veterans in July and August.

So, while Kinston may go further in the playoffs than Columbus, the Columbus roster has more prospects.   As a matter of fact, looking at the Akron, Kinston and Lake County rosters right now, it is no wonder the Indians made the all-in gamble on Ulbaldo Jimenez.  There is little or nothing below AAA that, as it stands now, will be of great help to the Indians in the next 3 years.  Bit players, maybe, but even that is questionable, looking at the performances this year.

Looking forward to the off-season - Let's start with September playing time.

So, this season is not officially over.  We will need some luck, timely hitting and Jimenez, Masterson AND Carmona to pitch like aces the rest of the way and get decent performances out of Gomez and Huff.  A tall order.  Too bad the Indians didn't take my suggestion about renting Lance Berkman from the Cardinals for the month of September. 

So, there is hope left but it is never too early to start thinking about the off-season.  This starts with who we need to play the rest of this season.

Free agents to be:

Believe it or not Kosuke Fukudome is near the bottom of Type B FA AL OFers.  Let's hope he hits the rest of the way and someone gives him a 3 year offer this winter and we offer him arbitration.  We need the draft pick.   Speaking of draft picks we currently stand at having the 18th pick in the draft, not good if we want to sign a Type A free agent as we would lose our top pick..

NOTE: Fukudome's salary ($14.5 million this year) would preclude us from offering him arbitration.  However, maybe he would accept a little extra cash to allow us to offer arbitration with him declining it.  We did the same thing with Juan Gonzalez a few years back when fans said THAT couldn't be done.  And Gonzalez was a Type A free agent.  Fukudome, as a Type B, would certainly understand that us getting a supplemental pick for him would not hurt his bargaining power.  So, it is worth exploring.

The rest of our potential FA with enough service time to qualify for draft picks (Sizemore and Durbin) don't qualify at either Type A or Type B and it isn't even close.

We also have other potential FAs: Hanahan and Carmona and we hold options on Sizemore ($9 million) arnd Carmona ($7 million).

Guys still in the minors we have to take a look at: Goedert and Putnam.   I don't think that we will bring either of them up but I hope at least Goedert gets his chance.  While there is no way I would cut Duncan, Durbin or Hannahan now, the only way to rationally remove them from the roster right now is to trade them and I don't know if that will happen.  I still think you could get something decent for Joe Smith, even if he can't play in the playoffs this year, as he still will have two years after this one before he can become a FA. 

With the 40 man at 42 without Goedert and Putnam, that presents an issue.  Right now we can jettison Hannahan and Durbin along with Duncan this off-season but, after that, we have to start removing prospects.  If we find a way to add Goedert and Putnam now (e.g., recall Rondon and put him on the 60 day DL. put Carrasco on the 60-day DL) we still will have to pay the piper this off-season as we would then have 40 men on a 40-man, assuming Durbin, Fukudome, Duncan  and Hannahan are gone.  No room for FA signings, no room for Rule 5 draftees, simply no room...unless we dump prospects or make a multiplayer trade before the rosters have to be locked.

So, there you have it.  Play Fukudome and find a way to play Goedert and Putnam.  I say give everyone a look and sort it through DFAs in the off-season.  But that is just the wild and crazy me speaking. 

Update to 2008 post-draft mock draft

I posted this back in June right after the draft.  Here is an update with the guys in bold being guys who have made it to the major leagues or are about to be called up.

(BA ranking at time of draft) Player (BA top 20 ranking with Indians at beginning of season)  

(74)Chisenhall (1 - in majors)
(126) Haley (NR - reliever in high A)
(NR)Phelps (20 - in majors)
(NR)Roberts (Released)
(50)Putnam (17) - in AAA right now, soon to be called up?
(NR)Tice (NR - High A)
(NR)Fedroff (NR - AAA)
(NR)Berger (NR - AAA and AA)
(NR)Clayton Cook (NR - High A)
(NR)Webb (NR - AA)
(NR)Langwell (NR - AA)

Mock draft

(BA  ranking at time of draft) player (top 20 ranking with current team at beginning of year)


(23)Conor Gillaspie (17 - In majors earlier this season, not in majors now, callup soon)
(15)Tim Melville (14 - High A)
(134)Brandon Crawford (6 - in majors now)
(50)Putnam (17 - in AAA right now)
(NR)Josh Satin (NR - in majors now)
(90)Eric Thames (12)
(NR)Cody Overbeck (NR - in AAA right now)
(NR)Andy Dirks (11)
(155)DJ Mitchell (18 - Not in majors now, callup soon)
(NR)Michael Stutes (NR)
(NR)Rob Musgrave (NR - in AA right now after AAA earlier this year)

Oh my gosh, look at that!  If Putnam gets called up eight of my top 11 picks have been in the majors already and 2 of the other 3 will be knocking on the door.  The 11th, Tim Melville, is still a much better prospect than Trey Haley, although neither are looking like anything close to sure things right now. 

 The Indians? If Putnam gets called up, three of their top 11 picks from 2008 are in the majors and most of the rest of them are at AA or lower. 

So, the guy with the copy of Baseball America outdrafts the Cleveland Indians 8 to 3 in terms of guys from the 2008 draft making  or about to be making the majors.  And my draft was cheaper, too