Saturday, June 22, 2013

Draft wrapup part 1: My shadow draft 2013 and previous shadow drafts

I have been doing shadow drafts for years.  For those of you who don't know a shadow draft is one that, based on available players, is done in comparison to who the Indians selected.  You file that away and compare it to the Indians' draft down the road.   Here goes:

Round 1 - My pick was always Clint Frazier and that is the way it remains. 

Round 3 - The Indians signed Dace Kime, who, in my opinion, is a pro reliever but I wanted a more high profile, HS pitcher, preferably a lefthander.  I got my selection down to choose between Chris Kohler and Stephen Gonzalves, both Southern California LHPs.  I decided to go for it here and save money later.   My pick is Gonzalves, who, in my opinion, offered the highest upside of any truly signable HS pitcher left at this poin.

Round 4 -  The Indians selected Kyle Crockett who should sign for around slot.  I, on the other hand, wanted to save money on this pick, choosing to draft the most polished (outside of Mark Appel) college senior pitcher.  Again, he is a lefthander, Matt Boyd from Oregon State. 

Round 5 -  The Indians selected LHP Sean Baker.  I never liked this pick at the time and still don't like it.  I, instead, selected Casey Shane, the Indians' 6th round pick.

Round 6 - The Indians selected Shane in this round but I wanted to get some more LHP and so I selected Daniel Gibson, LHP from the University of Florida.  I think he offers good value at this point.

Round 7 - The Indians selected Kenny Mathews here but I decided to go cheap and select senior LHP Randall Fant from Arkansas.   His upside is less but he offers some hope as a LH relief pitcher, maybe a LOOGY.

Round 8 - The Indians and I agree here.  We both selected Trevor Frank, a senior RHP from UC Riverside who will save even more money

Round 9 - The Indians selected Thomas Pannone, a JC LHP.  Instead I selected another LHP who is two years older and more polished, DJ Shelton, LHP from Minnesota.  I am looking at Shelton as more of a quick rising college reliever who can help us more quickly than Pannone.  Pannone may have more upside but Shelton is the higher ranked player who should get to the majors, and quickly.

Through round 9 my estimate is that my draft is now $1,150,000 under budget.  This money can be used to sign guys above slot in the rest of the draft.

Round 10 - The Indians selected Ross Kivett, a lowly ranked college secondbaseman from a good baseball program at Kansas State.  At the time I said this was an unwise pick for a number of reasons.  He isn't a prime prospect, doesn't play a premium position, is unlikely to sign for less than slot and drafting Adam Plutko here saves you a few thousand dollars as the 11th round slot of $100,000 is smaller than the 10th round slot.  My pick in this round is Adam Plutko, LHP from UCLA.

Round 11 - The Indians selected Plutko here but I want to go for broke and select AJ Puk, the highly rated HS  LHP.  He will be a tough sign but he is my holy grail pick in this draft.  Signing him with monies saved earlier on is possible.   I don't know if $1 million will do it but that is my plan, to offer Puk $1 million.  If he doesn't sign for that I use the money on picks below this one who, while not as highly rated, would still be values (albeit overslot values) later on in the draft.

Round 12 - I pick Dakota Frese, RHP from Des Moines CC in Iowa.  A good value at this point.

Round 13 - I pick Jordan Sheffield, HS RHP from Tennessee.  OK, so I only can sign one of him or Puk and it is likely that I won't sign either.  But I am going for it here. 

Round 14 - The Indians and I agree.  Silento Sayles is our pick.

Round 15 - I select Eric Lauder, HS LHP from Grafton, OH.  First, he is really good value at this point.  Second, if neither Puk or Sheffield signs we have money to sign Lauder and still have some left over for other, Cody Anderson-type signings.

Round 16 - I select Marcus Greene, C New Mexico CC.

Round 17 - I select Julian Ridings, OF, Western Carolinas who offers HUGE value at this point.

Round 18 - I agree again, Paul Hendrix, SS from TCU

 Round 19 - I select Gabe Speier, HS LHP from California.  If I can't get the Puk or Sheffield signed, here is a guy I use some of my excess money on.

Round 20 - I agree with the Indians.  Shane Rowland, C U. of Tampa

Round 21 - I will take a flyer with the Indians: Paul Young RHP from Central Alabama CC

Round 22 - I select Chase Jensen, SS, Oklahoma City

Round 23 - I select Javier Reynoseo, LHP from Middle Georgia CC

Round 24 - I select Marcus Daivs OF, Florida State U

Round 25 - I agree with the Indians - Cole Sulser, RHP Dartmouth

Round 26 - I agree with the Indians - Daniel Cogan HS RHP.  Again, if I have money left over I throw a little of it to this kid.

Round 27 - I select Sherman Lacrus, C, Western Oklahoma CC

Round 28 - I agree with the Indians: Stephan Kane RHP

Round 29 - I agree with the Indians: Ridge Smith HS 3B from Tennessee

Round 30 - I agree with the Indians - Aaron Brown LHP Pepperdine - Again, if I can't sign Puk or Sheffield, I throw some money his way.

Round 31 - I agree with the Indians - Maybe one of Crowe, Puk or Sheffiield sign for $1 million

Round 32 - I select Kyle Webb, RHP Elon

Round 33 - I agree with the Indians: Joe Wise, HS LHP from Arizona.  Again, he is a trickle down guy if money is left in the budget

Round 34 - I agree with the Indians: Dustin Cook RHP, San Jacinto JC

Round 35 - I select Lukas Schiraldi RHP Navarro JC - The 162nd rated player in the nation by BA, he is another trickle down guy who we should have enough money to sign if we don't get one of the big 3 HS pitchers I have selected.

Round 36 - Chandler Eden HS RHP from California - The 70th ranked player by BA - again, a flyer pick who I think is signable for a fraction of the $1.1 million we have left of our budget..

Round 37 - Cody Yount 1B - Virginia Commonwealth

Round 38 - Paul Paez LHP - Rio Hondo (CA) JC

Round 39 - I agree with the Indians:  Frank Duncan, RHP Kansas - Again, a guy who uses only a fraction of our budget excess if we don't sign our stud HS pitcher

Round 40 - Matt Borgschulte CF Drury (MO) University - This is a St. Louis kid I have liked for years.  He is a big kid who played CF in college.  He almost had the OF trifecta, coming close to double digits in OF assists and stolen bases while ranking pretty high in DII with 16 HR.  As a college senior he signs.

That's it.  let's file this away and see how I did.

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