Sunday, June 9, 2013

Now that the dust has settled.... are some thoughts about the Indains 2013 draft.

The Indians drafted Clint Frazier.  In the end that is all that matters.  Clint Frazier is certainly, on paper, the BEST position player the Indians have ever drafted.  EVER.  Yes, Manny Ramirez turned out great but, on draft day, he didn't look nearly as good as Frazier.  Francisco Lindor you say?  Nope, he didn't look as good as Frazier. 

Frazier makes this draft.

But what about the Indians' 2013 draft after Clint Frazier?  Well, here are my thoughts:
  • The first two days of the draft went almost exactly as I projected it would.  So, on paper, I like it.  I don't necessarily like the exact guys Cleveland selected but let's wait to see how these guys do in pro ball. 
  • My feeling is that there are no high ceiling guys we drafted after Frazier.  NONE.  To put things in perspective I don't see a Mitch Brown or a Dillon Howard or a LeVon Washington or a Alex Lavisky among them.  And, given the lack of success of those prospects, I am not sure that is a bad thing.
  • What the Indians got was, on the first two days, unspectacular prospects who have a chance to turn into something.  What else they got is the HOPE, not the certainty, but the HOPE they can piece together the money in the right way to sign all of our top 10 picks and not go over our $6.188 million budget. 
  • On the 3rd day we saw the Indians go against the grain a little.  Of the 30 players drafted by the Indians on the 3rd day only 13 were position players.  In total, the Indians drafted only 15 positions players and 25 pitchers.  Although they drafted more LHP than RHP in the first 10 rounds (4:3), in the end they drafted a more pedestrian 17 RHP compared to 7 LHP.   Last year we drafted 20 position players and 20 pitchers but only 1 LHP! 
  • While most of the guys they drafted after round 9 are likely to be organizational players if they sign, the Indians drafted two 'flyers' after the 9th round, LHP Aaron Brown in round 30 and RHP Wil Crowe in round 31.  They have little chance to sign either of these guys as I doubt that there will be enough budget left to offer these guys anything that will convince them not to attend college in the fall.  Which brings us to the key for this draft after Clint Frazier.
  • The Indians are going to have to be lucky to sign all their draft picks in first 10 rounds.  It will be tight to just sign the guys in the first 10 rounds and not go over budget.   Looking at our budget here is what I see us spending on each of these guys with their slot bonus in parentheses):
    • Frazier - $3.7 million ($3.787 million) (-$87,000)
    • Kime -  $500,000 ($692,200) (-192,300)
    • Crockett - $400,000 ($463,600) (-63,600)
    • Brody - $347,000 ($347,000) (0)
    • Shane - $325,000 ($259,000) (+66,000)
    • Mathews - $250,000 ($194,800) (+55,200)
    • Frank - $10,000 ($158,300) (-148,300)
    • Pannone $200,000 ($147,800) (+52,200)
    • Kivett - $110.000 ($138,100) (-28,100)
  • If you look at the above you will see, best case scenario we could have close to $350,000 to split between guys we really want to sign who we drafted after the 10th round.  However, that only comes to $175,000 additional if we split that money between two guys.  I doubt that $275,000 (savings plus base $100,000 exempt salary) will be enough to sign either Aaron Brown or Wil Crowe, our two flyer picks.  Unfortunately, even if my scenairo above happens, I see us taking this money and spreading it out over a variety of JUCO and HS kids to get more of them to sign.  Not a great use of that money.  I would have rather seen us take a flyer on a highly rated HS guy in round 12 who we thought we could bring in for $500,000 if we ended up having the $$$ left over  in our budget.  That didn't happen so I think we might end up wasting that money or not spending that money.
So, I like the plan especially in this weak draft.  The execution of who to draft is something else.  I see us getting Frazier and mayb 5-8 bit players out of this draft, but not much else. 

Let's hope we can sign 3-4 of the top 10 Latin prospects this summer

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