Friday, June 7, 2013

Second day of the draft thoughts

OK, Clint Frazier drafted.  Check.  Someone said that me completely agreeing with the Indians selections on the first day of the draft is enough to make your head explode.  LOL.  When it is as much of a no-brainer as this pick was, peoples' heads should have exploded only if we DIDN'T pick Frazier. 

But let's talk about day 2.

Last year the Indians didn't sign a single left-handed pitcher from their 2012 draft.

The LHPs who stand out for me are Garrett Williams and AJ Puk.  Both are HS arms.  I would select Puk in the 3rd round as shades of Jeremy Hellickson comes to mind, as an Iowa kid who wasn't seen much before the draft who was drafted later (in the 4th round) who has turned out pretty good.

So Puk in the 3rd round if he is available and I think he should be.

That should put us at slot or a little bit below, giving us a little more money to work with.

The naturals based on my draft model would be HS RHPs Kyle Serrano and Connor Jones, who are top 40 prospects and, so, good values at our 4th round slot  but both are deemed hard signs.  We have the money to go $1.5 million if Puk signs for slot.  If Williams is there for the 4th round I jump on him although HS LHP such as Stephen Gonsalves, Chris Kohler or Jake Brentz would be fine, too.  I like Kohler because his arm is more fresh than the other guys but Gonsalves was the most highly ranked of any of these guys before the season so I would go with Gonsalves if he is signable.  Note we could do a redraft on LHP Stephen Tarpley (who we drafted two years ago) or we could take a flyer on college RHP Bobby Wahl or LHP Kent Emanuel, both of whom were highly rated before the season and have dropped due to inconsistencies.

So in order in the 4th round I would go, based on who is available, Williams, Gonsaves, Kohler, Tarpley if Jones is unsignable.

In the 5th round I go for Matt Boyd, a senior LHP from Oregon State.

In the 6th round I go for Randall Fant, a senior LHP from Arkansas who we drafted last year. 

,In the 7th round I am looking for pitching value.  If Tarpley is there (doubtful) I pop him and hope I can sign him this time around with savings, if any, from previous rounds.  If he is gone I probably pop Keegan Thompson, HS RHP.  Or I could pop another JC player per my model like Blake Shouse, Eliott Morris, Glenn Freudenberg or some guy the Indians have scouted who hasn't made it to draft boards (like Cody Anderson from our 2011 draft).

In the 8th round I go for another signable JUCO pitcher, like the above or Zach Reninger, Daniel Lietz, Javier Reynoso, Jake Bray.

In the 9th and 10 rounds I originally said I wanted pitching.  However, if LJ Marzilli or Mike Yastremski are there I pop these college senior position players. The value would be just too great to pass up, IMHO.  Otherwise I am sure there are plenty of college senior pitchers who we could get for $1000 in these slots.

There you have it for the first 10 rounds.

After that I make sure that I don't draft anyone who will cost me more than $100,000 to sign.  By our past experience HS players drafted this low by the Indians who sign cheap don't even get out of rookie ball.  So I focus on college seniors and JUCO guys to fill out rookie league rosters at positions up the middle of the diamond. 

So there is my draft.  We will see what happens.  More comments to come after we see what day 2 brings.

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