NOTE: I have edited this because it is so urgent I think the Indians need to act on this...and now
We lost Bryan Shaw. We lost Joe Smith who, in theory, could have been Bryan Shaw's replacement if Smith had re-signed with us. We even lost Shawn Armstrong.
So, we not only lost bodies but a really good, reliable one in Shaw. People may not like him but let's face it, folks. The guy did a great job over his time here and I will go on record as saying he might have even been the best 7th inning guy EVER in Cleveland. So he needs to be replaced.
So who replaces him (and Smith)?
We have in-house options: Nick Goody, Dan Otero, Zach McAllister and, in theory, would only need to replace the less important roles those guys played last year IF we move up that three to more prominent rolls. If that is the Indians' thinking then it makes sense. If they are thinking about moving Clevinger or Tomlin to a role more like Shaw's then I am not on board with that.
However, next winter Miller, Allen and McAllister all become free agents. The odds of signing ANY of them are poor, depending how effective McAllister is this year. So we need to act NOW to be ready for NEXT year.
We say we are done with significant free agent signings. OK, I get it. But there are, by my count, 42 free agent relievers out there of various sorts. There is just not enough market out there for even the best remaining guys to get 2 year, $15 million or so deals. Some will have to take a one year deal with an option, some a straight one year deal and a few will have to take minor league deals. We should be able to get someone decent or good on a one year deal. But is that what we want to do?
You already have long term investments in Kluber, Carrasco, Salazar, Lindor, Ramirez, Encarnacion and others. Maybe Lindor and Bauer will become even longer term investments this spring! You have to plan to have enough of a bullpen to support these guys. I don't believe you can just wave your hand and hope that some guy in the minors (or Clevinger in the majors) can magically become a lights out major league reliever. With your other investments you can't take that risk.
So, if I am the Indians I would reconsider my position. Yes, you sign a guy or two right now you may not desperately need this year but you will need him (them) more next year and VERY much more in two years. Plus, it is not like you are signing guys to make your bullpen stronger. You are really just signing guys to make up for the guys you lost this winter.
As I said above, the market is thinning out and I don't believe that big contracts await the remaining available relievers. Some of the names available include Glenn Perkins, Addison Reed, Chad Qualls, Duston McGowan, Greg Holland, Sergio Romo, Matt Albers, Matt Belisle, Tyler Clippard, Koji Uehara, Jason Grilli and Travis Wood and there are many more Dan Otero-like relievers out there and even some Nick Goody-like guys to unearth. The list is impressive and, if we strike now, we can put ourselves in both a good negotiating position with Allen and McAllister for next year AND keep ourselves out of a BAD negotiating position next year. If we don't we will be the ones offering $27 million, 3 year deals to guys like Shaw or Brett Cecil or $17 million, 2 year deals to 6th/7th inning situational guys like Joe Smith next year. I don't want to be in that situation and neither should the Indians.
Sign 2 or 3 good relievers now. You will love yourself in the morning if you do!
Saturday, December 30, 2017
Thursday, December 28, 2017
Top 30 prospects
OK, we have had the winter meetings, the rule 5 draft and we are moving into the new year. The Indians may still make some trades but let's look at the current state of the Indians' farm system.
Overall analysis: Right now I would say the Indians rank roughly 22nd in baseball in terms of strength of farm system. In football/basketball language they have one 5 star prospect, one 4 star prospect and a number of 3 star prospects. They need to up the strength of their farm system as, in a few years, they may be looking at a complete rebuild unless some of their prospects can establish themselves between now and then. This year and next year will be crucial for that to happen, both in terms of acquisition of prospects through the draft and amateur free agency and graduation of current prospects to the majors. They have done a good job each year in managing their first year player draft budgets and have started to spend on marquis talents internationally but this needs to continue for them to be in 5 years where they are today.
Indians top 30 prospects
1. Francisco Mejia - C - If there is one prospect in the system that can be the face of the franchise in 5 years it is Mejia. Yes, you need Lindor and Ramirez to still be here but Mejia has to reach his potential.
2. Triston McKenzie - RHP - The road to the majors for a HS pitching prospect is filled with a lot of uncertainty. The Indians don't need McKenzie to pan out to be successful in 5 years. However, if he is successful on a par to Carlos Carrasco, it will allow us to budget better to fill holes that always seem to exist on any team.
3. Aaron Civale - RHP - This is where this list will start to differ from those you see elsewhere. If we are to be competitive in 5 years you need bodies. Civale is, to me, a better version of Josh Tomlin. He should slot in as a quality #4 starter if he can just stay healthy and advance normally. In 5 years he should be a solid, cost-effective, major league starter. That is worth about $5-7 million a year we won't have to pay a free agent. It will also save us from having to count on a question mark, similar to if we had to count on Ryan Merritt this year. Yes, it may pan out but it is big risk. Hey, I love Merritt, but in a winning organization he should be a long man/depth starter.
4. Willi Castro - SS - For the Indians to succeed in the future Castro may have to play a big part. He plays good defense and if he can hit he could be the next Jose Ramirez. He is on this list at this point for his upside at a position that is hard to fill. If he reaches his upside it will make it easier for us to make up for offensive deficits at other positions.
5. Will Benson - OF - Benson would not even be as high as he is on my list if we had any other sure things. However, as you will see below, most of our prospects who are close to the majors have some serious warts on them. Benson needs to become a solid major leaguer in 5 years. He needs to hit for more average and strike out less while keeping his other stats what they are now. If he fails it will put a big strain on our budget in 5 years. In an ideal farm system he would be #10 right now. The fact that he is #5 shows you that we don't have a lot of depth in this system.
6. Yu-Cheng Chang - SS - Prospect with warts Part I. He plays a premium position but he needs to produce more offensively to be useful in the future. Why? Because my guess is that he will have to slide over to 3B. If so, his current production, which is south of where Carlos Santana's is, will not be enough. If he could stay at SS and be a plus defender he might get by with 20+ HRs and an OPS of .750. However, if he has to play 3B that won't cut it. We could get a $6 million, 2nd tier third baseman out of free agency for that...if we wanted to go bargain hunting. Still, if Chang produces like that or if we go for that 2nd tier guy, it would be a deficit in our lineup in a spot where we need to be above average.
7. Shane Bieber - RHP - Look, no way is this guy supposed to be here. However, looking at what we will need in 5 years we don't need to be looking for a 5th starter. Bieber should be able to fill that roll if he stays healthy and on his current trajectory. Just like Josh Tomlin, we need Bieber to be Mr. Reliable, the starter's version of Bryan Shaw, to save money. We don't need to be paying $5 million for a 5th starter or rely on an untested rookie. If Bieber can reach his potential, it is a hole we can cross off our need list.
8. Nolan Jones - 3B - I really like Jones. He is likely to reach the majors. The jury is still out if he will be an impact or even above average major leaguer, however. If we are relying on Jones to suddenly have a bump in production for us to be in good shape in 5 years then we may have a problem. Jones is the first of what I will call our gravy prospects. If he pans out it has to be gravy on what would be a solid team without him. If we COUNT on him improving his production to what we WANT it to be compared to what it is now, it is a recipe for disaster.
9. Juan Hillman - LHP - This is where this list gets dicey. Hillman has only modest results so far in the minors, showing no signs of dominance yet. Although he will begin next season as a 20 year old, his body of work so far predicts a long development time with some uncertainty of how likely he is to reach anywhere close to his ceiling. He is a true hit-or-miss prospect which, for someone who has been in the system as long as he has, is a little concerning. Still, the potential is there.
10. Greg Allen - OF - Any farm system that would have Allen any higher than #10 is a farm system in trouble. He has zero power and speed is his one plus tool. He has a chance to be a good CFer and #9 hitter (his OB skills don't scream leadoff hitter) on a team that has 8 other guys who can hit the ball out of the park. He projects well as a 4th outfielder if you have a manager who values defense and pinch-running over being able to come off the bench as a hitter to change a game.
11. Bobby Bradley - 1B - Here is an interesting guy but one with warts. His upside now looks like Carlos Santana. Not bad but this is his upside. The problem is that he isn't a switch hitter. He is abysmal against lefties which makes him a platoon player. As half of a cheap platoon he can be useful. Think Jesus Aguilar last year with Milwaukee. We have Yandy Diaz to go with Bradley so, down the road, they both should be in the majors together for a good period of time before free agency so maybe that would work. Still, the signs are that Bradley will not be a well-rounded player, displaying only one plus tool, power.
12. Quentin Holmes - OF - Holmes had a dismal start to his professional career. Truth be told both of Thomas Pannone and Samad Taylor, the two guys traded for Joe Smith, are better prospects to reach the majors than Holmes currently is. Holmes has speed on his side but the Indians have mixed results, mostly on the negative side, about being able to develop a major league player out of a speed guy. Right now his upside looks like Greg Allen IF he reaches it. His development path may be slow enough that he arrives just outside of the 5 year window which is also problematic.
13. Ryan Merritt - LHP - Merritt represents the bird-in-the-hand prospect. You know what you get from him, which is #5 starter/long man upside but he is likely to reach that potential pretty easily, making him a useful piece in the next 5 years.
14. Julian Merryweather = RHP - A step or two behind Merritt in development is Merryweather. His upside is as a closer. His intermediate upside is as a #4 starter on a good team. He should make the majors and be a useful piece in the next 5 years. He may, however, turn out to be the second coming of Shawn Armstrong, which would only be useful to a second division team, which we hope the Indians aren't.
15. Elijah Morgan - RHP - You won't see Morgan on any other prospect lists. He is a short, right handed relief pitcher, neither of which are in his favor. He is not likely to close in the majors. He was a low draft pick meaning his stuff didn't stand out to scouts. However, his performance at Mahoning Valley was eye-popping and, having seen him in person and on TV (internet feed) I think his stuff will play all the way up to the majors. If he stays healthy and focused he should have a quick path to the majors and should impact the Indians sometime in the next 5 years both in terms of effectiveness as a 6th/7th inning guy and as a CHEAP option for those roles.
16. Brady Aiken - LHP - Here is where we start to go totally on hope. Aiken's numbers at Lake County scream "Wild Thing". He should have dominated that level but couldn't find the plate. Even in his games where he limited opponents in runs he still walked a bunch. I saw him in person and it seemed like he had no clue where the ball was going to go. One of the bravest things I saw in baseball this year was the home plate umpire standing behind the catcher when Aiken was warming up. Brave yet not a very smart man! Aiken has a great pedigree but, at the moment, screams bust after only a couple of years. Here's hoping for a great turnaround but this clearly shows what we will get on the second half of this top 30 this year: question mark after question mark. The only difference after Aiken is that the upside of the next 14 guys is not as high as Aiken's, not even close.
17. Connor Capel - OF - For those of you new to the minors, never...and I mean NEVER...look at power numbers at low A. They are generally just mirages. This is why Capel is down this list. His hit tool is still in question and the power he displayed in 2017 is in question as it was all at low A. The one plus in his favor is that HS guys from his 2016 draft class, even guys drafted above him, rarely had success at this level at low A ball last year. He make great statistical improvements from his first year to last year so there is hope for him in the future. He has a good arm and has played CF so he is likely to be an above average OFer at any of the 3 OF positions.
18. Shawn Morimando - LHP - To me, Morimando is the sleeper in this prospect list. His stats at AAA were mediocre but he is the kind of guy, I think, who the light can turn on for very quickly. I think he has a chance to be really impactful for the Indians in the next 5 years. The only reason he is down this far on this list is that he performance up to this point does not scream success in the majors. While I disagree with that, the proof is in the pudding and, so far, he has not been as brilliant in the minors as I would have liked to have to seen to give ANY chance of being successful in the majors for a first division team.
19. Mark Mathias - 2B - 2017 was a lost year for this guy but I think he will hit and play defense at an acceptable level and will hit for enough power to be useful as a major leaguer. I look at him as having Jason Kipnis upside with almost 100% certainty, if healthy, to reach the majors in some capacity in the next 5 years.
20. George Valera - OF - You know that you are rapidly running out of guys who will impact the Indians ML team in the next 5 years when you start listing 16 year olds coming out of Latin America who haven't started playing professional baseball yet. But that is where we are on this list.
21. Aaron Bracho - SS - See Valera above.
22. Marco Gonzalez - SS - Like Valera and Bracho but at least Gonzalez has played a year professionally on our DSL team.
23. Tyler Freeman - SS - A 2016 draftee who performed well this year, Freeman is on this list here because he, like the three Latin guys above, have long-term upside.
24. Sean Brady - LHP = Here is a guy who might sneak up on us. I think, when healthy, he is on a steady yet unspectacular route to the majors. In order to be impactful in the majors he will need to add something to his arsenal. I don't know what that is. Maybe a few mph on his fastball from a move to the bullpen, maybe developing a superior off-speed pitch. But he knows how to pitch and was successful in the hitter-heavy Arizona Fall League so don't count him out. If everything clicks for him he could impact the Indians as early as this year and certainly by next year.
25. Ernie Clement - 2B - Like Mathias, he could get to the majors very quickly. It is too early to tell how impactful he would be once he gets there but he certainly would get there and be established, if he makes it, easily within the next 5 years.
26. James Karinchak - LHP - Scouts apparently like his upside. 2018 will be a year, hopefully if he stays healthy, what we have in Karinchak.
27. Rob Kaminsky - LHP - You can't forget about this guy. Yeah, he was injured last year but he still has upside and, in this system, an ETA in the next 5 years is a plus. Kaminsky, if healthy, should impact this team for most of the next 5 years, making him a veteran at the end of that period. IF is the big, important, keyword. Time will tell if he even makes it out of spring training without being traded or released. However, you can't knock his performance when healthy as an indicator that he likely could pitch in the majors.
28. Eric Haase - C - Normally he would not be on this list but given that the Indians added him to the 40-man roster means, to me, that they saw upside in him after his power surge this year. They always thought he could hit but now it appears they think his power-defense combination is at least giving him a chance to be a solid backup in the majors. I don't know if we need that in the next 5 years and I don't know what trade value a guy like Haase could have but he at least gets a mention on this list.
29. Luke Wakamatsu - SS - Sons of big leaguers, if they have any talent at all, seem to do well in pro ball. Maybe it is because they are already trained in the ups and downs of professional baseball and the grind it takes to make it. Wakamatsu was just plodding along until the second half of 2017 when he added power to his polished small ball game. Again, low A ball is deceiving, especially in terms of hitters. Still, for a classic defense-first SS to have this kind of power surge is intriguing.
30. Eric Stamets - SS - Talk about power coming out of nowhere! This guy, like Haase a surprising add to the 40-man this winter, has come out of nowhere. Still, power is the last tool to normally develop for a hitter and a defense-first middle infielder who develops power at AAA is intriguing.
Final note: Lots of guys got left off this list that I like. Guys like Cameron Hill and a slew of other high minors relievers (and even 2017 college arms who played at Mahoning Valley) have a shot to impact our team in the near future. Also, guys like Matt Esparza and Francisco Perez could have that same impact if switched to the bullpen. A number of hitters like Tyler Krieger, Ka'ii Tom and others could have an impact in the next 5 years if they find one tool in their game they can make plus. Also, low level hitters like Oscar Gonzalez, Ulysses Cantu, Jonathon Rodriguez and others are too far away to be very impactful in the next 5 years but may be useful add-ons if the core of the major league roster is set and solid in 5 years. Guys will always pop up and drop off of prospect lists as that is the nature of player development. Some guys fail and some overachieve beyond all expectations. Let's hope we have more of the latter as, like all minor league systems, there are also a bunch of guys who look like they are currently going nowhere but, with one good year, could bolt into the Indians top 30 list next year.
Overall analysis: Right now I would say the Indians rank roughly 22nd in baseball in terms of strength of farm system. In football/basketball language they have one 5 star prospect, one 4 star prospect and a number of 3 star prospects. They need to up the strength of their farm system as, in a few years, they may be looking at a complete rebuild unless some of their prospects can establish themselves between now and then. This year and next year will be crucial for that to happen, both in terms of acquisition of prospects through the draft and amateur free agency and graduation of current prospects to the majors. They have done a good job each year in managing their first year player draft budgets and have started to spend on marquis talents internationally but this needs to continue for them to be in 5 years where they are today.
Indians top 30 prospects
1. Francisco Mejia - C - If there is one prospect in the system that can be the face of the franchise in 5 years it is Mejia. Yes, you need Lindor and Ramirez to still be here but Mejia has to reach his potential.
2. Triston McKenzie - RHP - The road to the majors for a HS pitching prospect is filled with a lot of uncertainty. The Indians don't need McKenzie to pan out to be successful in 5 years. However, if he is successful on a par to Carlos Carrasco, it will allow us to budget better to fill holes that always seem to exist on any team.
3. Aaron Civale - RHP - This is where this list will start to differ from those you see elsewhere. If we are to be competitive in 5 years you need bodies. Civale is, to me, a better version of Josh Tomlin. He should slot in as a quality #4 starter if he can just stay healthy and advance normally. In 5 years he should be a solid, cost-effective, major league starter. That is worth about $5-7 million a year we won't have to pay a free agent. It will also save us from having to count on a question mark, similar to if we had to count on Ryan Merritt this year. Yes, it may pan out but it is big risk. Hey, I love Merritt, but in a winning organization he should be a long man/depth starter.
4. Willi Castro - SS - For the Indians to succeed in the future Castro may have to play a big part. He plays good defense and if he can hit he could be the next Jose Ramirez. He is on this list at this point for his upside at a position that is hard to fill. If he reaches his upside it will make it easier for us to make up for offensive deficits at other positions.
5. Will Benson - OF - Benson would not even be as high as he is on my list if we had any other sure things. However, as you will see below, most of our prospects who are close to the majors have some serious warts on them. Benson needs to become a solid major leaguer in 5 years. He needs to hit for more average and strike out less while keeping his other stats what they are now. If he fails it will put a big strain on our budget in 5 years. In an ideal farm system he would be #10 right now. The fact that he is #5 shows you that we don't have a lot of depth in this system.
6. Yu-Cheng Chang - SS - Prospect with warts Part I. He plays a premium position but he needs to produce more offensively to be useful in the future. Why? Because my guess is that he will have to slide over to 3B. If so, his current production, which is south of where Carlos Santana's is, will not be enough. If he could stay at SS and be a plus defender he might get by with 20+ HRs and an OPS of .750. However, if he has to play 3B that won't cut it. We could get a $6 million, 2nd tier third baseman out of free agency for that...if we wanted to go bargain hunting. Still, if Chang produces like that or if we go for that 2nd tier guy, it would be a deficit in our lineup in a spot where we need to be above average.
7. Shane Bieber - RHP - Look, no way is this guy supposed to be here. However, looking at what we will need in 5 years we don't need to be looking for a 5th starter. Bieber should be able to fill that roll if he stays healthy and on his current trajectory. Just like Josh Tomlin, we need Bieber to be Mr. Reliable, the starter's version of Bryan Shaw, to save money. We don't need to be paying $5 million for a 5th starter or rely on an untested rookie. If Bieber can reach his potential, it is a hole we can cross off our need list.
8. Nolan Jones - 3B - I really like Jones. He is likely to reach the majors. The jury is still out if he will be an impact or even above average major leaguer, however. If we are relying on Jones to suddenly have a bump in production for us to be in good shape in 5 years then we may have a problem. Jones is the first of what I will call our gravy prospects. If he pans out it has to be gravy on what would be a solid team without him. If we COUNT on him improving his production to what we WANT it to be compared to what it is now, it is a recipe for disaster.
9. Juan Hillman - LHP - This is where this list gets dicey. Hillman has only modest results so far in the minors, showing no signs of dominance yet. Although he will begin next season as a 20 year old, his body of work so far predicts a long development time with some uncertainty of how likely he is to reach anywhere close to his ceiling. He is a true hit-or-miss prospect which, for someone who has been in the system as long as he has, is a little concerning. Still, the potential is there.
10. Greg Allen - OF - Any farm system that would have Allen any higher than #10 is a farm system in trouble. He has zero power and speed is his one plus tool. He has a chance to be a good CFer and #9 hitter (his OB skills don't scream leadoff hitter) on a team that has 8 other guys who can hit the ball out of the park. He projects well as a 4th outfielder if you have a manager who values defense and pinch-running over being able to come off the bench as a hitter to change a game.
11. Bobby Bradley - 1B - Here is an interesting guy but one with warts. His upside now looks like Carlos Santana. Not bad but this is his upside. The problem is that he isn't a switch hitter. He is abysmal against lefties which makes him a platoon player. As half of a cheap platoon he can be useful. Think Jesus Aguilar last year with Milwaukee. We have Yandy Diaz to go with Bradley so, down the road, they both should be in the majors together for a good period of time before free agency so maybe that would work. Still, the signs are that Bradley will not be a well-rounded player, displaying only one plus tool, power.
12. Quentin Holmes - OF - Holmes had a dismal start to his professional career. Truth be told both of Thomas Pannone and Samad Taylor, the two guys traded for Joe Smith, are better prospects to reach the majors than Holmes currently is. Holmes has speed on his side but the Indians have mixed results, mostly on the negative side, about being able to develop a major league player out of a speed guy. Right now his upside looks like Greg Allen IF he reaches it. His development path may be slow enough that he arrives just outside of the 5 year window which is also problematic.
13. Ryan Merritt - LHP - Merritt represents the bird-in-the-hand prospect. You know what you get from him, which is #5 starter/long man upside but he is likely to reach that potential pretty easily, making him a useful piece in the next 5 years.
14. Julian Merryweather = RHP - A step or two behind Merritt in development is Merryweather. His upside is as a closer. His intermediate upside is as a #4 starter on a good team. He should make the majors and be a useful piece in the next 5 years. He may, however, turn out to be the second coming of Shawn Armstrong, which would only be useful to a second division team, which we hope the Indians aren't.
15. Elijah Morgan - RHP - You won't see Morgan on any other prospect lists. He is a short, right handed relief pitcher, neither of which are in his favor. He is not likely to close in the majors. He was a low draft pick meaning his stuff didn't stand out to scouts. However, his performance at Mahoning Valley was eye-popping and, having seen him in person and on TV (internet feed) I think his stuff will play all the way up to the majors. If he stays healthy and focused he should have a quick path to the majors and should impact the Indians sometime in the next 5 years both in terms of effectiveness as a 6th/7th inning guy and as a CHEAP option for those roles.
16. Brady Aiken - LHP - Here is where we start to go totally on hope. Aiken's numbers at Lake County scream "Wild Thing". He should have dominated that level but couldn't find the plate. Even in his games where he limited opponents in runs he still walked a bunch. I saw him in person and it seemed like he had no clue where the ball was going to go. One of the bravest things I saw in baseball this year was the home plate umpire standing behind the catcher when Aiken was warming up. Brave yet not a very smart man! Aiken has a great pedigree but, at the moment, screams bust after only a couple of years. Here's hoping for a great turnaround but this clearly shows what we will get on the second half of this top 30 this year: question mark after question mark. The only difference after Aiken is that the upside of the next 14 guys is not as high as Aiken's, not even close.
17. Connor Capel - OF - For those of you new to the minors, never...and I mean NEVER...look at power numbers at low A. They are generally just mirages. This is why Capel is down this list. His hit tool is still in question and the power he displayed in 2017 is in question as it was all at low A. The one plus in his favor is that HS guys from his 2016 draft class, even guys drafted above him, rarely had success at this level at low A ball last year. He make great statistical improvements from his first year to last year so there is hope for him in the future. He has a good arm and has played CF so he is likely to be an above average OFer at any of the 3 OF positions.
18. Shawn Morimando - LHP - To me, Morimando is the sleeper in this prospect list. His stats at AAA were mediocre but he is the kind of guy, I think, who the light can turn on for very quickly. I think he has a chance to be really impactful for the Indians in the next 5 years. The only reason he is down this far on this list is that he performance up to this point does not scream success in the majors. While I disagree with that, the proof is in the pudding and, so far, he has not been as brilliant in the minors as I would have liked to have to seen to give ANY chance of being successful in the majors for a first division team.
19. Mark Mathias - 2B - 2017 was a lost year for this guy but I think he will hit and play defense at an acceptable level and will hit for enough power to be useful as a major leaguer. I look at him as having Jason Kipnis upside with almost 100% certainty, if healthy, to reach the majors in some capacity in the next 5 years.
20. George Valera - OF - You know that you are rapidly running out of guys who will impact the Indians ML team in the next 5 years when you start listing 16 year olds coming out of Latin America who haven't started playing professional baseball yet. But that is where we are on this list.
21. Aaron Bracho - SS - See Valera above.
22. Marco Gonzalez - SS - Like Valera and Bracho but at least Gonzalez has played a year professionally on our DSL team.
23. Tyler Freeman - SS - A 2016 draftee who performed well this year, Freeman is on this list here because he, like the three Latin guys above, have long-term upside.
24. Sean Brady - LHP = Here is a guy who might sneak up on us. I think, when healthy, he is on a steady yet unspectacular route to the majors. In order to be impactful in the majors he will need to add something to his arsenal. I don't know what that is. Maybe a few mph on his fastball from a move to the bullpen, maybe developing a superior off-speed pitch. But he knows how to pitch and was successful in the hitter-heavy Arizona Fall League so don't count him out. If everything clicks for him he could impact the Indians as early as this year and certainly by next year.
25. Ernie Clement - 2B - Like Mathias, he could get to the majors very quickly. It is too early to tell how impactful he would be once he gets there but he certainly would get there and be established, if he makes it, easily within the next 5 years.
26. James Karinchak - LHP - Scouts apparently like his upside. 2018 will be a year, hopefully if he stays healthy, what we have in Karinchak.
27. Rob Kaminsky - LHP - You can't forget about this guy. Yeah, he was injured last year but he still has upside and, in this system, an ETA in the next 5 years is a plus. Kaminsky, if healthy, should impact this team for most of the next 5 years, making him a veteran at the end of that period. IF is the big, important, keyword. Time will tell if he even makes it out of spring training without being traded or released. However, you can't knock his performance when healthy as an indicator that he likely could pitch in the majors.
28. Eric Haase - C - Normally he would not be on this list but given that the Indians added him to the 40-man roster means, to me, that they saw upside in him after his power surge this year. They always thought he could hit but now it appears they think his power-defense combination is at least giving him a chance to be a solid backup in the majors. I don't know if we need that in the next 5 years and I don't know what trade value a guy like Haase could have but he at least gets a mention on this list.
29. Luke Wakamatsu - SS - Sons of big leaguers, if they have any talent at all, seem to do well in pro ball. Maybe it is because they are already trained in the ups and downs of professional baseball and the grind it takes to make it. Wakamatsu was just plodding along until the second half of 2017 when he added power to his polished small ball game. Again, low A ball is deceiving, especially in terms of hitters. Still, for a classic defense-first SS to have this kind of power surge is intriguing.
30. Eric Stamets - SS - Talk about power coming out of nowhere! This guy, like Haase a surprising add to the 40-man this winter, has come out of nowhere. Still, power is the last tool to normally develop for a hitter and a defense-first middle infielder who develops power at AAA is intriguing.
Final note: Lots of guys got left off this list that I like. Guys like Cameron Hill and a slew of other high minors relievers (and even 2017 college arms who played at Mahoning Valley) have a shot to impact our team in the near future. Also, guys like Matt Esparza and Francisco Perez could have that same impact if switched to the bullpen. A number of hitters like Tyler Krieger, Ka'ii Tom and others could have an impact in the next 5 years if they find one tool in their game they can make plus. Also, low level hitters like Oscar Gonzalez, Ulysses Cantu, Jonathon Rodriguez and others are too far away to be very impactful in the next 5 years but may be useful add-ons if the core of the major league roster is set and solid in 5 years. Guys will always pop up and drop off of prospect lists as that is the nature of player development. Some guys fail and some overachieve beyond all expectations. Let's hope we have more of the latter as, like all minor league systems, there are also a bunch of guys who look like they are currently going nowhere but, with one good year, could bolt into the Indians top 30 list next year.
Friday, December 22, 2017
Way down Yonder
Ever since Yonder Alonso came to the majors I wanted to use that line and now I have my chance.
If you consider the prediction of the structure of the Indians April 25 man roster like an NCAA basketball bracket prediction, well, consider my bracket busted!
This is not to say that I don't like the Alonso contract. I actually like it. Not too long, not too short, 3rd year option, not too pricy this year. Yeah, it looks about right. Alonso cashes in on his beyond-all-expectations-career-year. We get a guy who we hope matches last year when the rest of the league
So what's not to like?
Alonso is a lefty hitter who can't hit lefties. Thus he is a platoon player. We will need to add another hitter to platoon with him. Maybe we have options in house (Diaz, Guyer, Mejia) or maybe we go out and get another veteran. If we do the latter guys like Gio Urshela and Erik Gonzalez are at risk as they are out of options. Plus, if we added a veteran right hand bat you would have liked him to be a full-time starter like maybe a thirdbaseman instead of just a platoon firstbaseman.
You see the issue. By adding Alonso you likely will add another veteran, pushing back younger players.
For me, I would have rather just kept Mejia on the roster as the third catcher/DH. Chisenhall can play some 1B and so can Brantley. With the guys we have returning, I think that works better than signing Alonso. Plus we have Yandy Diaz. I know what they were doing in getting Alonso but I just don't like it. Young guys get kicked to the curb or jettisoned because they are not Lindoresque and we get little or nothing for them. A perfect example is Jesus Aguilar, who was out of options last year. He ended up on waivers and picked up by Milwaukee. Well, he hit 16 HR last year in Milwaukee. His LH splits were .303 BA and .889 OPS and he wasn't terrible against RHP, either. We jettisoned him for nothing because we didn't have room for him when, if we would have kept him, we could have used him to help, in a platoon situation, to replace Santana this year. To me that would have made as much sense as signing Alonso as we wouldn't have to look for another FA signing to platoon with Alonso and it would have been MUCH cheaper.
Hey, I am OK with signing certain veterans when needed. However, the last two years we have made moves that gave away young players for little return. Signing Alonso might cause us to do the same again. I just don't like that when we are in a weak division and all that our in-house options may need is just need a chance to be successful. Filling your roster with veterans really doesn't give the young players that opportunity and, as I said, you wind up throwing away for nothing prospects just because they are not the next coming of Francisco Lindor. Bad business for a small market team, in my opinion.
If you consider the prediction of the structure of the Indians April 25 man roster like an NCAA basketball bracket prediction, well, consider my bracket busted!
This is not to say that I don't like the Alonso contract. I actually like it. Not too long, not too short, 3rd year option, not too pricy this year. Yeah, it looks about right. Alonso cashes in on his beyond-all-expectations-career-year. We get a guy who we hope matches last year when the rest of the league
So what's not to like?
Alonso is a lefty hitter who can't hit lefties. Thus he is a platoon player. We will need to add another hitter to platoon with him. Maybe we have options in house (Diaz, Guyer, Mejia) or maybe we go out and get another veteran. If we do the latter guys like Gio Urshela and Erik Gonzalez are at risk as they are out of options. Plus, if we added a veteran right hand bat you would have liked him to be a full-time starter like maybe a thirdbaseman instead of just a platoon firstbaseman.
You see the issue. By adding Alonso you likely will add another veteran, pushing back younger players.
For me, I would have rather just kept Mejia on the roster as the third catcher/DH. Chisenhall can play some 1B and so can Brantley. With the guys we have returning, I think that works better than signing Alonso. Plus we have Yandy Diaz. I know what they were doing in getting Alonso but I just don't like it. Young guys get kicked to the curb or jettisoned because they are not Lindoresque and we get little or nothing for them. A perfect example is Jesus Aguilar, who was out of options last year. He ended up on waivers and picked up by Milwaukee. Well, he hit 16 HR last year in Milwaukee. His LH splits were .303 BA and .889 OPS and he wasn't terrible against RHP, either. We jettisoned him for nothing because we didn't have room for him when, if we would have kept him, we could have used him to help, in a platoon situation, to replace Santana this year. To me that would have made as much sense as signing Alonso as we wouldn't have to look for another FA signing to platoon with Alonso and it would have been MUCH cheaper.
Hey, I am OK with signing certain veterans when needed. However, the last two years we have made moves that gave away young players for little return. Signing Alonso might cause us to do the same again. I just don't like that when we are in a weak division and all that our in-house options may need is just need a chance to be successful. Filling your roster with veterans really doesn't give the young players that opportunity and, as I said, you wind up throwing away for nothing prospects just because they are not the next coming of Francisco Lindor. Bad business for a small market team, in my opinion.
Thursday, December 14, 2017
Comments about the winter meetings
You know, this type of post is usually called "Musings about the winter meetings"
Problem is, I am not a-MUSED. It is more like I am a-PO'd. When I am mad I write a lot. So bear with me.
So far here is what we know:
1. Joe Smith signed with the Astros. As I said at the time, getting Joe Smith was a bad trade. In my opinion we gave away WAY too much for a rental of a middle reliever. In the end, we win the division without Joe Smith and, at worst, we do as bad in the playoffs as we did, losing in the first round. I know trade deadline acquisitions sometime don't make any difference. However, this one will hurt for years to come if Thomas Pannone and Samad Taylor even just scratch the surface of their potential worth. I saw no other team make this kind of one-sided trade at the deadline but more on that below. Plus, Smith signing with the Astros hurts our chances of making the WS again.
2. Shawn Armstrong traded for 500 K of international signing money. Yes, this gives us some money to use to sign some of the Braves signees who were thrown back into the mix by the commissioner. However, since the commissioner already said that teams can borrow against next year's pool to sign guys now AND since the Indians don't often sign more than one high profile guy anyway AND since you can always trade someone next spring to get extra bonus money, what is the big deal with making this deal now? Yes Armstrong is out of options but 500K is not that much considering that the Mariners had already given 1 MM for a fringe prospect minor leaguer. Look, no one should think that I believe that Shawn Armstrong is the second coming of Cody Allen or anything and I know he was out of options but, bottom line, precedent tells me we didn't have to do this trade now and, if we DID make this trade we should have gotten more international bonus money out of it than we did. Plus, with the loss of Joe Smith, it's not like we didn't need options for the bullpen.
3. Rumors of a trade of Danny Salazar to the Cubs are swirling. No problem, as long as we rob the other team. We are already down a couple of solid relievers from last year and, truth be told, we have only 6 solid starters counting Salazar. It doesn't take a pessimist to predict that we might only have 5 starters available by next opening day...just a realist. So, if you want to trade Salazar and leave Ryan Merritt as your next starter option if one of the remaining starters get hurt, you better damn well get Anthony Rizzo back. Just on paper, this type of move looks like the Indians of the '80s, trading pitching for hitting and then finding that they don't have enough pitching, trading hitting for pitching. Hey, dangle any of the starters for hitting. That's fine. Just let's get a king's ransom back because we don't have a lot of starting pitching depth to play with in Cleveland.
4. I am a little worried about the Indians' ability to pull off a trade that doesn't favor the other team more than us. Yes, we have a limited window but if you look down our roster and prospect lists (see below) you can see that there is not much to help us once that window starts to close. The Joe Smith trade talked about above is the perfect example of the kind of overpayment I see them making on a grander scale this winter or next July. I see the Indians robbing Peter (our farm system) to pay Paul (our major league team) without much consideration of getting fair value back. The issue with this is that it weakens the farm system for a team that is unlikely to jump into the US free agent pool feet first and has not been willing to sign high profile international amateur or international professional free agents. Any time there is a bidding war we just sit back and wait to see if it evaporates with the attempt to sweep in and get a guy. I understand that we are a small market team but now is the time we need to replenish our farm system or in 5 years we will be the worst team in baseball. If we don't go all in with amateur guys right now we are in trouble.
Along those lines we could have easily matched or exceeded what the Cardinals paid for Marcell Ozuna. Ozuna will not be a free agent until 2020. Chris Antonneti said that he is looking for assets good for more than one year. Ozuna fit that bill but, for whatever reason (maybe they think 2017 was his career year, which is possible), we whiffed on that trade.
5. Going into the Rule 5 draft the Indians were one of only 6 clubs who did not have a single one of their top 30 prospects eligible for the Rule 5 draft. This is the result of having a lot of their top prospects making the majors this year or being traded and the rest being recently drafted/signed who are not yet rule 5-eligible. It also reflects some of their top draft picks like Mike Papi not panning out as expected. Only 3 of their top 30 prospects even had to be protected from the Rule 5 draft and they all were protected by the deadline in November for setting rosters. As I posted at the time the decisions weren't that hard and even the fringe prospects who weren't protected would not likely be lost as they were unlikely to stick on other major league rosters. I thought we might lose Rob Kaminsky because he is a LHP and because he was injured which could give the drafting team extra time to develop him (as with Anthony Santander last year). In the end, the Indians lost Jordan Milbrath (26 year old RH relief pitcher who has not made it past AA yet) in the major league phase. They selected no on in the major league phase. Milbrath will have to stick with the Pirates all year or be offered back to the Indians. He is unlikely to stick with the Pirates even as a mop-up man so we should be getting him back.
In the minor league portion where we don't get the players back, the Indians lost Junior Soto, an OFer who, while 20, has spent 4 years and not made it past low class A where he batted .172 last year and Ivan Castillo, a 22 year old SS who has been in the organization and finally made it to AA this year where he hit .203. We selected R.C. Orlan, a 27 year old LHP who has not pitched above AA yet.
In summary, the 2017 Rule 5 draft was a yawner for the Indians as expected. While it is a good thing not to lose players it also shows that the organizational depth of players who can help at the big league level is not there. To me it signals that what is on our 40 man roster is what we will have to pick from to help the Indians early next year. Not surprising but you would like to see one or two minor leaguers jump up to help your ML team every year. I think the draft results support that this is not likely to happen in 2018.
One other Rule 5 draft note. Anthony Santander has 44 days left that he has to be on the Orioles major league roster next year for the Orioles not to have to return him. Given that the Orioles were the only team in the majors who selected THREE players in this year's ML portion of the Rule 5 draft, I think they are looking to the future which, to me, completely eliminates any possibility of him returning to the Indians. It is a shame because the organizational depth last year was just enough to keep Santander, probably a top 15 prospect on the Indians, from being protected. They thought his injury would keep him from being selected but, instead, it was used against the Indians to get Santander more seasoning and allowing him to only be on the roster after the Orioles were essentially eliminated from the pennant race, picking up 46 days of active roster time, most of that in baseball's equivalent of basketball's garbage time...September.
Problem is, I am not a-MUSED. It is more like I am a-PO'd. When I am mad I write a lot. So bear with me.
So far here is what we know:
1. Joe Smith signed with the Astros. As I said at the time, getting Joe Smith was a bad trade. In my opinion we gave away WAY too much for a rental of a middle reliever. In the end, we win the division without Joe Smith and, at worst, we do as bad in the playoffs as we did, losing in the first round. I know trade deadline acquisitions sometime don't make any difference. However, this one will hurt for years to come if Thomas Pannone and Samad Taylor even just scratch the surface of their potential worth. I saw no other team make this kind of one-sided trade at the deadline but more on that below. Plus, Smith signing with the Astros hurts our chances of making the WS again.
2. Shawn Armstrong traded for 500 K of international signing money. Yes, this gives us some money to use to sign some of the Braves signees who were thrown back into the mix by the commissioner. However, since the commissioner already said that teams can borrow against next year's pool to sign guys now AND since the Indians don't often sign more than one high profile guy anyway AND since you can always trade someone next spring to get extra bonus money, what is the big deal with making this deal now? Yes Armstrong is out of options but 500K is not that much considering that the Mariners had already given 1 MM for a fringe prospect minor leaguer. Look, no one should think that I believe that Shawn Armstrong is the second coming of Cody Allen or anything and I know he was out of options but, bottom line, precedent tells me we didn't have to do this trade now and, if we DID make this trade we should have gotten more international bonus money out of it than we did. Plus, with the loss of Joe Smith, it's not like we didn't need options for the bullpen.
3. Rumors of a trade of Danny Salazar to the Cubs are swirling. No problem, as long as we rob the other team. We are already down a couple of solid relievers from last year and, truth be told, we have only 6 solid starters counting Salazar. It doesn't take a pessimist to predict that we might only have 5 starters available by next opening day...just a realist. So, if you want to trade Salazar and leave Ryan Merritt as your next starter option if one of the remaining starters get hurt, you better damn well get Anthony Rizzo back. Just on paper, this type of move looks like the Indians of the '80s, trading pitching for hitting and then finding that they don't have enough pitching, trading hitting for pitching. Hey, dangle any of the starters for hitting. That's fine. Just let's get a king's ransom back because we don't have a lot of starting pitching depth to play with in Cleveland.
4. I am a little worried about the Indians' ability to pull off a trade that doesn't favor the other team more than us. Yes, we have a limited window but if you look down our roster and prospect lists (see below) you can see that there is not much to help us once that window starts to close. The Joe Smith trade talked about above is the perfect example of the kind of overpayment I see them making on a grander scale this winter or next July. I see the Indians robbing Peter (our farm system) to pay Paul (our major league team) without much consideration of getting fair value back. The issue with this is that it weakens the farm system for a team that is unlikely to jump into the US free agent pool feet first and has not been willing to sign high profile international amateur or international professional free agents. Any time there is a bidding war we just sit back and wait to see if it evaporates with the attempt to sweep in and get a guy. I understand that we are a small market team but now is the time we need to replenish our farm system or in 5 years we will be the worst team in baseball. If we don't go all in with amateur guys right now we are in trouble.
Along those lines we could have easily matched or exceeded what the Cardinals paid for Marcell Ozuna. Ozuna will not be a free agent until 2020. Chris Antonneti said that he is looking for assets good for more than one year. Ozuna fit that bill but, for whatever reason (maybe they think 2017 was his career year, which is possible), we whiffed on that trade.
5. Going into the Rule 5 draft the Indians were one of only 6 clubs who did not have a single one of their top 30 prospects eligible for the Rule 5 draft. This is the result of having a lot of their top prospects making the majors this year or being traded and the rest being recently drafted/signed who are not yet rule 5-eligible. It also reflects some of their top draft picks like Mike Papi not panning out as expected. Only 3 of their top 30 prospects even had to be protected from the Rule 5 draft and they all were protected by the deadline in November for setting rosters. As I posted at the time the decisions weren't that hard and even the fringe prospects who weren't protected would not likely be lost as they were unlikely to stick on other major league rosters. I thought we might lose Rob Kaminsky because he is a LHP and because he was injured which could give the drafting team extra time to develop him (as with Anthony Santander last year). In the end, the Indians lost Jordan Milbrath (26 year old RH relief pitcher who has not made it past AA yet) in the major league phase. They selected no on in the major league phase. Milbrath will have to stick with the Pirates all year or be offered back to the Indians. He is unlikely to stick with the Pirates even as a mop-up man so we should be getting him back.
In the minor league portion where we don't get the players back, the Indians lost Junior Soto, an OFer who, while 20, has spent 4 years and not made it past low class A where he batted .172 last year and Ivan Castillo, a 22 year old SS who has been in the organization and finally made it to AA this year where he hit .203. We selected R.C. Orlan, a 27 year old LHP who has not pitched above AA yet.
In summary, the 2017 Rule 5 draft was a yawner for the Indians as expected. While it is a good thing not to lose players it also shows that the organizational depth of players who can help at the big league level is not there. To me it signals that what is on our 40 man roster is what we will have to pick from to help the Indians early next year. Not surprising but you would like to see one or two minor leaguers jump up to help your ML team every year. I think the draft results support that this is not likely to happen in 2018.
One other Rule 5 draft note. Anthony Santander has 44 days left that he has to be on the Orioles major league roster next year for the Orioles not to have to return him. Given that the Orioles were the only team in the majors who selected THREE players in this year's ML portion of the Rule 5 draft, I think they are looking to the future which, to me, completely eliminates any possibility of him returning to the Indians. It is a shame because the organizational depth last year was just enough to keep Santander, probably a top 15 prospect on the Indians, from being protected. They thought his injury would keep him from being selected but, instead, it was used against the Indians to get Santander more seasoning and allowing him to only be on the roster after the Orioles were essentially eliminated from the pennant race, picking up 46 days of active roster time, most of that in baseball's equivalent of basketball's garbage time...September.
Monday, December 4, 2017
A little of this and a little of that
This is a baseball blog, I know. But this is the winter and baseball news is slow to develop so let's branch out.
1. Indians/free agents/trades - The Indians need a RH hitting OFer, preferably a right fielder. As I said before the guy who makes the most sense is Giancarlo Stanton. Of course, Stanton won't even go to a baseball Meccha like St. Louis and so he ain't coming here. We can afford to go bargain basement right now and a guy like Matt Adams makes some sense. Ditto for the bullpen. As far as trade bait, besides the minor leaguers I might consider this:
a. Our most tradeable asset is Bradley Zimmer. If the price is right I trade him in a heart beat. But the price has to be right.
b. I don't trade Erik Gonzalez under any circumstances. Why? Because his value to the Indians is much greater than his value in trade, which is very little.
c. By this time next year Gio Urshela might have been released. But, right now, he is organizational depth without much trade value. He stays.
d. If Lonnie Chisenhall and Jason Kipnis hadn't gotten hurt they would have been great trade bait. I think if they have bouince back seasons they are more value to the Indians than as a throw-in to a trade. I will be coming up with some potential trades before we get to the baseball meetings on Dec. 10th. Right now, though, I don't see a lot we have to trade as we are solid all the way through the roster and need all those guys. Now, I guy or two or three from the minors gets to the majors and shows their ability to replace current roster players and I will take back what I said.
2. Ohio State and the football playoffs. Alabama didn't deserve it. Wisconsin didn't deserve it after they lost to the Buckeyes. But Ohio State didn't deserve it, either. So no whining in football. If they had gotten in it would have been a lot like last year.
3. The Cleveland Cavaliers - Is the whole freakin' league rebuilding? It was an embarrassment to lose against teams early. But now that the league is sorting itself out we get a look at how weak the rest of the Eastern Division is. In fact, the bottom half of the Western Division is probably weaker than the bottom half of the Eastern Division. There are no words!
4. The Cleveland Browns - To quote Jodie Foster in the movie Contact, "no words. There are no words". She was talking about something mind blowing. I am not.
5. The Indians not making the semifinals of the Ohtani sweepstakes. How many good Japanese restaurants per capita are there in Cleveland.
1. Indians/free agents/trades - The Indians need a RH hitting OFer, preferably a right fielder. As I said before the guy who makes the most sense is Giancarlo Stanton. Of course, Stanton won't even go to a baseball Meccha like St. Louis and so he ain't coming here. We can afford to go bargain basement right now and a guy like Matt Adams makes some sense. Ditto for the bullpen. As far as trade bait, besides the minor leaguers I might consider this:
a. Our most tradeable asset is Bradley Zimmer. If the price is right I trade him in a heart beat. But the price has to be right.
b. I don't trade Erik Gonzalez under any circumstances. Why? Because his value to the Indians is much greater than his value in trade, which is very little.
c. By this time next year Gio Urshela might have been released. But, right now, he is organizational depth without much trade value. He stays.
d. If Lonnie Chisenhall and Jason Kipnis hadn't gotten hurt they would have been great trade bait. I think if they have bouince back seasons they are more value to the Indians than as a throw-in to a trade. I will be coming up with some potential trades before we get to the baseball meetings on Dec. 10th. Right now, though, I don't see a lot we have to trade as we are solid all the way through the roster and need all those guys. Now, I guy or two or three from the minors gets to the majors and shows their ability to replace current roster players and I will take back what I said.
2. Ohio State and the football playoffs. Alabama didn't deserve it. Wisconsin didn't deserve it after they lost to the Buckeyes. But Ohio State didn't deserve it, either. So no whining in football. If they had gotten in it would have been a lot like last year.
3. The Cleveland Cavaliers - Is the whole freakin' league rebuilding? It was an embarrassment to lose against teams early. But now that the league is sorting itself out we get a look at how weak the rest of the Eastern Division is. In fact, the bottom half of the Western Division is probably weaker than the bottom half of the Eastern Division. There are no words!
4. The Cleveland Browns - To quote Jodie Foster in the movie Contact, "no words. There are no words". She was talking about something mind blowing. I am not.
5. The Indians not making the semifinals of the Ohtani sweepstakes. How many good Japanese restaurants per capita are there in Cleveland.
Tuesday, November 21, 2017
HOF ballot this year
There is always enough Indians stuff to talk about that it is hard to fit in a post about baseball (or other things) not involving the current Cleveland Indians organization. But it is HOF ballot time and time to weigh in on that ballot. Here is the list and my comments on each:
General: First, I love the big Red machine. I was in Cincinnati during that time and, while being an Indians' fan, loved watching winning, history-making baseball. That being said, the inclusion of Tony Perez into the HOF has created problems for me ever since. Hey, Perez was a very, very solid player, maybe even great at times but, in my opinion, there are hundreds of guys like him who aren't in the HOF and, frankly, shouldn't be...just like Perez.
I think this year's HOF ballot gives us a chance to separate great players from HOF players, the way it should be. I think this ballot also has guys on it who will eventually make it through the veteran committee process, like Perez probably should have.
I think Chipper Jones, Jim Thome and Omar Vizquel will get in, although I worry about Thome being thrown out with the dirty PED bathwater. There are probably more non-PED guys worthy of getting in but I think they will split the vote between them with a few more guys than normal just falling short.
Here are my individual comments:
Barry Bonds - Unfortunately, like Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire, Pete Rose and Shoeless Joe Jackson, there are a lot of reasons other than performance that will keep statistically-deserving players out. So, no on Bonds.
Chris Carpenter - Good when he was good but not even long enough to earn a second year on the ballot.
Roger Clemens - See Bonds.
Johnny Damon - not even at Perez's level. This should be his first and last year on the ballot.
Vladimir Guerrero - Here is a guy, like Kirby Puckett, who was so good so long he should be in the HOF. Yeah, injuries made it so he didn't have eye-popping, no-doubt career numbers but he should be there.
Livan Hernandez - TCahe Cuban guys are tough but I think he falls short as it is too hard to predict a full career for him that would make him HOF-worthy.
Trevor Hoffman, - The voters love him but will that love go away this year with the ballot being as stuffed as it is? I hope he makes it this year but I doubt he will.
Orlando Hudson - No
Jason Isinghausen - Part of the reason that Hoffman may not make it is that some voters may be split between him and Isringhausen. Got to meet the man this past year because his daughter played volleyball at the same school my daughter did. He is a good guy who I saw pitch for years in St. Louis. I think he is borderline HOF material and I hope he eventually makes it.
Andruw Jones - I love this Jones but, using my Tony Perez yardstick, I think Jones falls short of Perez and so doesn't get in.
Chipper Jones - Normally I would say first ballot HOFer and he may do that. In this year, however, he may fall just short making him an easy second ballot HOFer.
Jeff Kent - Just like Tony Perez, Kent dominated a relatively weak offensive group at second base, especially power-wise, during his career. That being said, he falls short of Perez and so definitely short of the HOF.
Carlos Lee - To me, just a really good player, but not a HOFer
Brad Lidge - Good but not a HOFer and certainly not while Hoffman and Isringhausen are on the ballet.
Edgar Martinez - The best DH of all time but, on this ballot, and in this era where everyone hits, and the fact that he wasn't really a rounded player being a DH, I don't see him getting in, maybe ever, when you use the Tony Perez as the bottom rung argument. Plus, there is Thome if you want a mostly-DH guy, at least later in his career.
Hidecki Matsui - One of the first big Japenese imports, you have to question whether he should have his Japanese stats factored in. I say no and to all those who say 'yes', then Julio Franco should already be in the HOF as his foreign stats put him well over 3000 hits, among other normal HOF indicators.
Fred McGriff - See Tony Perez. McGriff was a great player but not HOF material.
Kevin Millwood - Very solid ML player. No HOFer, though.
Jamie Moyer - Like Julio Franco, this guy played so long that he might be on the HOF ballot AND be considered by the Veterans' committee in the same year (JK). When Franco gets in, so should Moyer.
Mike Mussina - I don't get it. He should get in but I guess his numbers are not so overwhelming that people just ignore him. He will get in one day but it may be at the Veterans' Committee level.
Manny Ramirez - PEDs will keep him out but it might be a blessing in disguise. He might have embarrassed himself by getting lost and missing his own induction.
Scott Rolen - I wish he could get in. By the Perez yardstick maybe he makes it. However, I think the list will be so good for so many years now that Rolen won't get in. And, frankly, he was just a really, really, solid player but falls just short of HOF numbers.
Johan Santana - Not good enough for long enough.
Curt Schilling, - See Mussina
Gary Sheffield, - No
Sammy Sosa - No
Jim Thome - Look, he is in if I have a ballot. As has been said by others, he is a certified slugger but without the PED stigma. He would have been Ruthian if he played when Ruth played.
Omar Vizquel - I have had the pleasure of watching two of the greatest, if not the two greatest, defensive shortstops of all time, repeatedly and in person: Ozzie Smith and Omar Vizquel. Omar is a first ballot HOFer as his offense, like that of Smith, improved over the course of his career while maintaining HOF defense. Vizquel should be in.
Billy Wagner - See Brad Lidge
Larry Walker - Solid but no HOFer.
Kerry Wood - If you got into the HOF for pre-career hype and your first couple of years of performance Wood is in. Unfortunately the HOF path is a marathon and Wood ran a world class 100 meter dash in that path.
Carlos Zambrano - On weak ballot years a guy like Zambrano might hang around a couple of years before being taken off the ballot for low vote totals. With this list, however, Zambrano is likely not to be on next year's ballot.
General: First, I love the big Red machine. I was in Cincinnati during that time and, while being an Indians' fan, loved watching winning, history-making baseball. That being said, the inclusion of Tony Perez into the HOF has created problems for me ever since. Hey, Perez was a very, very solid player, maybe even great at times but, in my opinion, there are hundreds of guys like him who aren't in the HOF and, frankly, shouldn't be...just like Perez.
I think this year's HOF ballot gives us a chance to separate great players from HOF players, the way it should be. I think this ballot also has guys on it who will eventually make it through the veteran committee process, like Perez probably should have.
I think Chipper Jones, Jim Thome and Omar Vizquel will get in, although I worry about Thome being thrown out with the dirty PED bathwater. There are probably more non-PED guys worthy of getting in but I think they will split the vote between them with a few more guys than normal just falling short.
Here are my individual comments:
Barry Bonds - Unfortunately, like Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire, Pete Rose and Shoeless Joe Jackson, there are a lot of reasons other than performance that will keep statistically-deserving players out. So, no on Bonds.
Chris Carpenter - Good when he was good but not even long enough to earn a second year on the ballot.
Roger Clemens - See Bonds.
Johnny Damon - not even at Perez's level. This should be his first and last year on the ballot.
Vladimir Guerrero - Here is a guy, like Kirby Puckett, who was so good so long he should be in the HOF. Yeah, injuries made it so he didn't have eye-popping, no-doubt career numbers but he should be there.
Livan Hernandez - TCahe Cuban guys are tough but I think he falls short as it is too hard to predict a full career for him that would make him HOF-worthy.
Trevor Hoffman, - The voters love him but will that love go away this year with the ballot being as stuffed as it is? I hope he makes it this year but I doubt he will.
Orlando Hudson - No
Jason Isinghausen - Part of the reason that Hoffman may not make it is that some voters may be split between him and Isringhausen. Got to meet the man this past year because his daughter played volleyball at the same school my daughter did. He is a good guy who I saw pitch for years in St. Louis. I think he is borderline HOF material and I hope he eventually makes it.
Andruw Jones - I love this Jones but, using my Tony Perez yardstick, I think Jones falls short of Perez and so doesn't get in.
Chipper Jones - Normally I would say first ballot HOFer and he may do that. In this year, however, he may fall just short making him an easy second ballot HOFer.
Jeff Kent - Just like Tony Perez, Kent dominated a relatively weak offensive group at second base, especially power-wise, during his career. That being said, he falls short of Perez and so definitely short of the HOF.
Carlos Lee - To me, just a really good player, but not a HOFer
Brad Lidge - Good but not a HOFer and certainly not while Hoffman and Isringhausen are on the ballet.
Edgar Martinez - The best DH of all time but, on this ballot, and in this era where everyone hits, and the fact that he wasn't really a rounded player being a DH, I don't see him getting in, maybe ever, when you use the Tony Perez as the bottom rung argument. Plus, there is Thome if you want a mostly-DH guy, at least later in his career.
Hidecki Matsui - One of the first big Japenese imports, you have to question whether he should have his Japanese stats factored in. I say no and to all those who say 'yes', then Julio Franco should already be in the HOF as his foreign stats put him well over 3000 hits, among other normal HOF indicators.
Fred McGriff - See Tony Perez. McGriff was a great player but not HOF material.
Kevin Millwood - Very solid ML player. No HOFer, though.
Jamie Moyer - Like Julio Franco, this guy played so long that he might be on the HOF ballot AND be considered by the Veterans' committee in the same year (JK). When Franco gets in, so should Moyer.
Mike Mussina - I don't get it. He should get in but I guess his numbers are not so overwhelming that people just ignore him. He will get in one day but it may be at the Veterans' Committee level.
Manny Ramirez - PEDs will keep him out but it might be a blessing in disguise. He might have embarrassed himself by getting lost and missing his own induction.
Scott Rolen - I wish he could get in. By the Perez yardstick maybe he makes it. However, I think the list will be so good for so many years now that Rolen won't get in. And, frankly, he was just a really, really, solid player but falls just short of HOF numbers.
Johan Santana - Not good enough for long enough.
Curt Schilling, - See Mussina
Gary Sheffield, - No
Sammy Sosa - No
Jim Thome - Look, he is in if I have a ballot. As has been said by others, he is a certified slugger but without the PED stigma. He would have been Ruthian if he played when Ruth played.
Omar Vizquel - I have had the pleasure of watching two of the greatest, if not the two greatest, defensive shortstops of all time, repeatedly and in person: Ozzie Smith and Omar Vizquel. Omar is a first ballot HOFer as his offense, like that of Smith, improved over the course of his career while maintaining HOF defense. Vizquel should be in.
Billy Wagner - See Brad Lidge
Larry Walker - Solid but no HOFer.
Kerry Wood - If you got into the HOF for pre-career hype and your first couple of years of performance Wood is in. Unfortunately the HOF path is a marathon and Wood ran a world class 100 meter dash in that path.
Carlos Zambrano - On weak ballot years a guy like Zambrano might hang around a couple of years before being taken off the ballot for low vote totals. With this list, however, Zambrano is likely not to be on next year's ballot.
40 man roster decisions and other related things
First, as I previously posted, the 40 man roster decisions were pretty easy for the Indians. Adding Chang, Castro and Merryweather were no brainers. Leaving off Papi, Nellie Rodriguez and Rob Kaminsky were no brainers, either. Papi has been mediocre his who career, Rodriguez regressed dramatically last year and is a tough fit as a RH first baseman. Kaminsky was hurt all year.
Adding Eric Stamets to the roster is a bit of a surprise. His surprising power surge this year may have accounted for his addition. Adding Rob Refsnyder on waivers is also a bit of a surprise.
Regarding the Rule 5 draft that is built off the prospects teams don't put on their 40 man rosters at this time of year, look for the Indians not to lose anyone with the exception of maybe Kaminsky in the ML portion of the draft, although it is a pretty good shot that Kaminsky will get drafted by some team. They may or may not draft a guy in ML portion and are likely not to, given their very low slot in the Rule 5 draft. That being said, Anthony Santander, a good Indians prospect, made it until the second round of the ML portion last year so the Indians could still find a hidden gem near the end of the first round. Looking at the lack of even fringe Indians prospects who are Rule 5 eligible and the size of the Columbus reserve list, I don't see the Indians losing guys in the minor league portion, either. Since the Indians have not been major players in selecting guys in the minor league portion of the Rule 5, I see the entire Rule 5 draft to be very quiet vis-Ã -vis the Indians, with the exception of maybe losing Kaminsky.
DFAing Kyle Crockett is no surprise as he has lost favor within the organization since his uber-successful ML debut in 2015. Ditto for DFAing Dylan Baker as he has pitched great but has almost always been hurt since he was drafted. I think Crockett will find work elsewhere but I hope the Indians re-sign Baker. If they sign either of these guys to minor league deals in the next few weeks they would be eligible for the Rule 5 draft with a high likelihood, I think, of them being selected by another club. So, if we re-sign them, look for it to be after January 1st.
Regarding 6 year minor league free agents who were in the Indians organization last year, Ronny Rodriguez and Tim Cooney are the most intriguing for the Indians. Cooney was actually in the Indians' top 30 prospects last winter but barely got on the mound for the AZL Indians at the end of this season after being out with an arm injury most of the year. Rodriguez has shown his versatility and a little pop at AAA but the Indians letting him go, adding Stamets to the roster and protecting catcher Eric Haase from 6 year minor league free agency by adding him to the 40 man says the Indians don't think Rodriguez has a future with this club. Other notables who became minor league free agents were Joe Colon, Michael Martinez, Adam Moore and Chris Narveson (all with previous ML experience) and minor league fringe prospects Luis Lugo, Luigi Rodriguez and Jeff Johnson. All of these guys might end up in the big leagues at some point but there are many more like these guys from other clubs who just became minor league free agents. The Indians will re-sign a few of these guys and sign some other guys. Frankly, the Indians have not really done well finding hidden gems or guys they can develop in these career minor leaguers so let's hope they have someone really good (like the guy(s) who suggested signing Dan Otero) analyzing these lists and they come up with some help for the big league club in 2018 from other teams' discards.
Adding Eric Stamets to the roster is a bit of a surprise. His surprising power surge this year may have accounted for his addition. Adding Rob Refsnyder on waivers is also a bit of a surprise.
Regarding the Rule 5 draft that is built off the prospects teams don't put on their 40 man rosters at this time of year, look for the Indians not to lose anyone with the exception of maybe Kaminsky in the ML portion of the draft, although it is a pretty good shot that Kaminsky will get drafted by some team. They may or may not draft a guy in ML portion and are likely not to, given their very low slot in the Rule 5 draft. That being said, Anthony Santander, a good Indians prospect, made it until the second round of the ML portion last year so the Indians could still find a hidden gem near the end of the first round. Looking at the lack of even fringe Indians prospects who are Rule 5 eligible and the size of the Columbus reserve list, I don't see the Indians losing guys in the minor league portion, either. Since the Indians have not been major players in selecting guys in the minor league portion of the Rule 5, I see the entire Rule 5 draft to be very quiet vis-Ã -vis the Indians, with the exception of maybe losing Kaminsky.
DFAing Kyle Crockett is no surprise as he has lost favor within the organization since his uber-successful ML debut in 2015. Ditto for DFAing Dylan Baker as he has pitched great but has almost always been hurt since he was drafted. I think Crockett will find work elsewhere but I hope the Indians re-sign Baker. If they sign either of these guys to minor league deals in the next few weeks they would be eligible for the Rule 5 draft with a high likelihood, I think, of them being selected by another club. So, if we re-sign them, look for it to be after January 1st.
Regarding 6 year minor league free agents who were in the Indians organization last year, Ronny Rodriguez and Tim Cooney are the most intriguing for the Indians. Cooney was actually in the Indians' top 30 prospects last winter but barely got on the mound for the AZL Indians at the end of this season after being out with an arm injury most of the year. Rodriguez has shown his versatility and a little pop at AAA but the Indians letting him go, adding Stamets to the roster and protecting catcher Eric Haase from 6 year minor league free agency by adding him to the 40 man says the Indians don't think Rodriguez has a future with this club. Other notables who became minor league free agents were Joe Colon, Michael Martinez, Adam Moore and Chris Narveson (all with previous ML experience) and minor league fringe prospects Luis Lugo, Luigi Rodriguez and Jeff Johnson. All of these guys might end up in the big leagues at some point but there are many more like these guys from other clubs who just became minor league free agents. The Indians will re-sign a few of these guys and sign some other guys. Frankly, the Indians have not really done well finding hidden gems or guys they can develop in these career minor leaguers so let's hope they have someone really good (like the guy(s) who suggested signing Dan Otero) analyzing these lists and they come up with some help for the big league club in 2018 from other teams' discards.
Friday, November 10, 2017
What to do with Carlos Santana
We have already made Carlos a qualifying offer. In addition to that I would make him a $56 million 4 year deal offer with a $15 million 5th year club option with a $1 million buyout.
This is probably a fair offer and it sets the bar so that any team to beat it would likely have to outbid the Indians, meaning that his contract would probably be around $60 million or more it would cross the threshold for getting us a draft pick if he signs elsewhere.
So, make him a fair offer that crosses the $50 million threshold and make it for a number of years such that the yearly value and overall value are reasonable for his abilities. I think this offer does that. He might accept less overall but more per year that would cause the Indians not to get a draft pick if he left but the length and value of the offer above and the fact he gets to stay in Cleveland would outweigh any amount per year he could get elsewhere.
Of course, if we don't do that it means either we are sure he will get over $50 from someone or the Indians don't think, because of things you and I don't know about Santana, that making him a long-term offer might not be the best business decision.
This is probably a fair offer and it sets the bar so that any team to beat it would likely have to outbid the Indians, meaning that his contract would probably be around $60 million or more it would cross the threshold for getting us a draft pick if he signs elsewhere.
So, make him a fair offer that crosses the $50 million threshold and make it for a number of years such that the yearly value and overall value are reasonable for his abilities. I think this offer does that. He might accept less overall but more per year that would cause the Indians not to get a draft pick if he left but the length and value of the offer above and the fact he gets to stay in Cleveland would outweigh any amount per year he could get elsewhere.
Of course, if we don't do that it means either we are sure he will get over $50 from someone or the Indians don't think, because of things you and I don't know about Santana, that making him a long-term offer might not be the best business decision.
Tuesday, November 7, 2017
It's go time. How do we protect our assets - Rule 5 draft
This will be the first in a series of articles on how we approach this off-season.
Here are some thoughts about what we need to do relative to finalizing the 40 man roster in anticipation for the Rule 5 draft:
Wow, for the first time in my memory as I look through the list of players eligible for the Rule 5 draft this year I don't really see anyone who needs to be added to the major league roster. Guys like Francisco Mejia, Greg Allen and Bradley Zimmer are already solidly on the roster and borderline guys like Adam Plutko, Ryan Merritt and Shawn Morimando have upside and options left. In the entire minor league system the only guys I see who I might think to add to the roster are Julian Merryweather, Nellie Rodriguez and Mike Papi. The former is questionable and, at this point, Papi hasn't shown that he is (and maybe ever will be) major league ready. This is a scout's call on Merryweather. That is, can he help us in the bullpen at some point this year or in the rotation next year AND is he attractive to other teams as a Rule 5 pick? Papi doesn't seem to be the kind of guy who gets drafted. Rodriguez has a chance to be drafted after the way Jesus Aguilar performed in Milwaukee this year. However, when you can't hit .200 in AAA in a hitters park like Columbus, you don't generally get drafted in the Rule 5. There are a slew of minor league relievers who could get drafted but I don't see them adding any of them to the major league roster at this point as each appears right now to be replaceable. When you consider Shawn Armstrong's minor league stats and seeing how he is a fringe ML player right now, I hope you can see where I am coming from.
Papi and some of the minor league relievers could still have some level of ML career. Right now I don't see that as being significant and so I don't see anyone being drafted. Remember, this is coming from the guy who told you that Hector Rondon was going to be drafted and that, in less than a year, he was going to be the Cubs closer, both of which turned out to be true.
Also, I see the upper levels of our farm system being weak so the reserved list at Columbus (guys not on the 40 man roster but only eligible for the ML Rule 5, not either of the minor league phases) would seem to have a lot of space on it for any guy who is Rule 5 eligible and has even a ghost of chance to develop into a fringe ML player. So, if we protect our guys appropriately I don't even see anyone of significance being lost in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft.
As far as adding players from the Rule 5, we will have to wait and see who is available. At this point our only needs would be a RH relief pitcher and an outfielder with power. I think we are covered at other positions. Given how poor our track record is on picking the right guys to draft in the ML Rule 5, you might see us pass, especially since we would be drafting at the end of the round after all the intriguing prospects have been picked over.
So I think this should be a quiet draft for the Indians, both in terms of drafting and losing prospects and, for the first time in a while, we may ADD more guys than we lose, although I don't know how significant any of the additions would be on the immediate or long-term future of the Indians.
Here are some thoughts about what we need to do relative to finalizing the 40 man roster in anticipation for the Rule 5 draft:
Wow, for the first time in my memory as I look through the list of players eligible for the Rule 5 draft this year I don't really see anyone who needs to be added to the major league roster. Guys like Francisco Mejia, Greg Allen and Bradley Zimmer are already solidly on the roster and borderline guys like Adam Plutko, Ryan Merritt and Shawn Morimando have upside and options left. In the entire minor league system the only guys I see who I might think to add to the roster are Julian Merryweather, Nellie Rodriguez and Mike Papi. The former is questionable and, at this point, Papi hasn't shown that he is (and maybe ever will be) major league ready. This is a scout's call on Merryweather. That is, can he help us in the bullpen at some point this year or in the rotation next year AND is he attractive to other teams as a Rule 5 pick? Papi doesn't seem to be the kind of guy who gets drafted. Rodriguez has a chance to be drafted after the way Jesus Aguilar performed in Milwaukee this year. However, when you can't hit .200 in AAA in a hitters park like Columbus, you don't generally get drafted in the Rule 5. There are a slew of minor league relievers who could get drafted but I don't see them adding any of them to the major league roster at this point as each appears right now to be replaceable. When you consider Shawn Armstrong's minor league stats and seeing how he is a fringe ML player right now, I hope you can see where I am coming from.
Papi and some of the minor league relievers could still have some level of ML career. Right now I don't see that as being significant and so I don't see anyone being drafted. Remember, this is coming from the guy who told you that Hector Rondon was going to be drafted and that, in less than a year, he was going to be the Cubs closer, both of which turned out to be true.
Also, I see the upper levels of our farm system being weak so the reserved list at Columbus (guys not on the 40 man roster but only eligible for the ML Rule 5, not either of the minor league phases) would seem to have a lot of space on it for any guy who is Rule 5 eligible and has even a ghost of chance to develop into a fringe ML player. So, if we protect our guys appropriately I don't even see anyone of significance being lost in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft.
As far as adding players from the Rule 5, we will have to wait and see who is available. At this point our only needs would be a RH relief pitcher and an outfielder with power. I think we are covered at other positions. Given how poor our track record is on picking the right guys to draft in the ML Rule 5, you might see us pass, especially since we would be drafting at the end of the round after all the intriguing prospects have been picked over.
So I think this should be a quiet draft for the Indians, both in terms of drafting and losing prospects and, for the first time in a while, we may ADD more guys than we lose, although I don't know how significant any of the additions would be on the immediate or long-term future of the Indians.
Monday, October 23, 2017
Our Free Agents - What do we do
OK, the World Series starts tomorrow which means I go into high gear to start thinking about the 2018 Indians. So let's first talk about our free agents and which ones we want to bring back.
Obviously, we want to bring back all of them. But that is highly unlikely. So let's prioritize.
Josh Tomlin - We pick up his $3 million option. No questions.
Carlos Santana - He is single player I target out of our free agent class. If we can sign him I think it makes this team immensely better. Most of my off-season resources go into signing him. I don't know why I like him this much but I think that year 2 with him and Encarnacion could be magical and year 3 could be almost as good.
Joe Smith - I would like to re-sign him by giving him years instead of a single big payday. I would go for a 3-year deal for him but not for his one year market value per year.
Bryan Shaw - I think we can and should re-sign him. However, he has a lot of miles on him so I would overpay him for a 1-year deal to reward him for his contributions so far. I would not go beyond one year, however.
Jay Bruce - In an unpopular move, I am sure, I don't bring him back. He is too expensive. I don't believe he actually adds to the clubhouse that much and I think his production on the field may be declining. Just my opinion but I don't think he is worth the money he will receive. I might offer him the qualifying offer rate for one year not to get the draft pick, because we can't. Just to show him we want him to stay. Beyond that, I let him walk.
Austin Jackson - I would bring him back at the same rate of pay he had this year plus a 30% raise. Anything more than that will be overpaying for a piece to the puzzle that probably can be easily replaced in free agency. I don't see him as an impact player in the post-season so I wouldn't overpay him.
Craig Breslow - I work to re-sign him to a minimum deal. He is good insurance for us in case Miller or Olson goes down.
Boone Logan - I pick up his option. I know that sounds stupid but he is a viable commodity. I doubt we find anything better in free agency at the price of his option minus the buyout.
Obviously, we want to bring back all of them. But that is highly unlikely. So let's prioritize.
Josh Tomlin - We pick up his $3 million option. No questions.
Carlos Santana - He is single player I target out of our free agent class. If we can sign him I think it makes this team immensely better. Most of my off-season resources go into signing him. I don't know why I like him this much but I think that year 2 with him and Encarnacion could be magical and year 3 could be almost as good.
Joe Smith - I would like to re-sign him by giving him years instead of a single big payday. I would go for a 3-year deal for him but not for his one year market value per year.
Bryan Shaw - I think we can and should re-sign him. However, he has a lot of miles on him so I would overpay him for a 1-year deal to reward him for his contributions so far. I would not go beyond one year, however.
Jay Bruce - In an unpopular move, I am sure, I don't bring him back. He is too expensive. I don't believe he actually adds to the clubhouse that much and I think his production on the field may be declining. Just my opinion but I don't think he is worth the money he will receive. I might offer him the qualifying offer rate for one year not to get the draft pick, because we can't. Just to show him we want him to stay. Beyond that, I let him walk.
Austin Jackson - I would bring him back at the same rate of pay he had this year plus a 30% raise. Anything more than that will be overpaying for a piece to the puzzle that probably can be easily replaced in free agency. I don't see him as an impact player in the post-season so I wouldn't overpay him.
Craig Breslow - I work to re-sign him to a minimum deal. He is good insurance for us in case Miller or Olson goes down.
Boone Logan - I pick up his option. I know that sounds stupid but he is a viable commodity. I doubt we find anything better in free agency at the price of his option minus the buyout.
Friday, October 13, 2017
I don't care - an open letter to Tribe fans everywhere
The AL Championship Series started tonight but I just don't care.
But that is not what this post is about. This post is to Tribe fans everywhere.
I am 64 years old and have been a diehard fan of the Indians since 1960. They are my team. I have seen the Cavs play in person a couple of times and been to some Browns games in the dead of winter at old Muncipal Stadium. These were my teams because they were Cleveland teams, my hometown teams.
But the Indians were always my team.
In reflecting on the loss on Wednesday and the entire season, here is what I have come to believe.
The glory in your season comes from the season itself, not the outcome. Chasing the dream of winning the World Series, of breaking the string of years that stretch from 1949 to, well, whenever we win the World Series, is foolhardy.
Getting upset over not winning the World Series is foolhardy. There is a greater than 95% chance every year that we won't win the World Series.
So why should the success or failure of our team be tied to it?
My epiphany came when I saw the Nationals lose at home to the Cubs last night. You know how many times in the past 6 years the Nationals have lost in the NLDS? Four times in the four years they were in the playoffs. They are worse than the Buffalo Bills in futility because the Nationals don't even make it out of the first round of the playoffs.
You see, if the Nationals and their fans felt that their season came down to the WS then their fans should not come to any games but WS games in the future. The Nationals should, by all rights, play to a nearly empty house (except for families and friends of the players and people who got freebee tickets) every night. Their fans KNOW they are going to win the NL East so why bother coming?
The thing is that a lot of people come to watch baseball for baseball sake. They love the game.
It is when the fans and players and management have the attitude that "I will only consider this a successful season IF..." that the fun is taken out of the game for the fans.
Last year Francona had the players thinking one game at a time. This year during the streak Francona had his players thinking about one game at a time. But somehow, because of the near miss last year and the fact that the pundits and odds makers were all saying the Indians were a lock to win the WS, people started to get the idea that THIS was the season. THIS time we were going to win the WS championship.
And look what happened. Everybody lost sight of the ultimate baseball truths:
(1) the best team on paper doesn't always win. You could go on and say hardly ever wins.
(2) you can never count on your players to play as well as you want them to.
(3) S--- happens, meaning that injuries happen, bad luck happens, fate happens and, of course, a blind squirrel sometimes does find an acorn. All of these conspire to make sure that the best team doesn't always win. Imagine how Yankees fans were feeling when Yan Gomes said that on his game winning hit in game 2 he was just trying to hit the ball to the right side to advance the runner to 3rd base and wound up hitting the ball down the left field line. Isn't that the definition of the blind squirrel finding an acorn?
So many things can keep your team, our team, from winning the series. Yeah, we can blame Francona and, to some extent, he is to blame. He is to blame because he couldn't pull ANY rabbits out of his hat to win this series. He couldn't, this year, overcome (1) through (3) above. You just can't do that every year.
So, my advice to Cleveland fans is to remember that they can't control destiny. They can only enjoy the ride. I am mad as hell that the Indians didn't advance but, truth be told, playing like they were playing against the Yankees sealed that they weren't going to GET to the World Series, let alone win it. It just wasn't in the cards for them this year.
Maybe next year the stars will align and the Indians will win. Maybe I will die before the Indians win the WS. But I can tell you this: On my deathbed...if I am talking about baseball on my deathbed...I won't be saying "Man, why couldn't the Indians just win the WS once in my lifetime?" If I am thinking about baseball at all, if I am talking about baseball at all, I will be talking about Giambi's pinchhit HR in 2014 when we were streaking to get to the wildcard game, Davis' HR of Chapman in 2016 and the streak and all the other records from 2017.
If I die talking about those things I will likely die with a smile on my face because that is baseball. You can't predict it. You can't count on the result in a short series to go your way. What you can count on is that if the body of work for a team in a season or over several seasons looks good, you SHOULD be happy as a fan.
Let's ask your average diehard Browns fan if they would take the Buffalo Bills' frustration over not winning a Super Bowl in so many tries over what they have to deal with now. I hope they would all say "Hell Yes" now and after 4 seasons of that 'frustration'.
If the Indians go to the playoffs for the next two years and then have an exciting team for the next 5 after that and NEVER win the WS during my lifetime, that is a GREAT victory for the franchise, much greater than the one-and-done of the Marlins in 2007.
So, Indians' fans. Rejoice about the ride and never worry about the sudden stop at the end. Just like last year when many Indians' fans I talked to were not that upset after the WS because they knew they had gotten their money's worth out of their team, so it is true this year. We got MORE than our money's worth out of this team.
Peace
But that is not what this post is about. This post is to Tribe fans everywhere.
I am 64 years old and have been a diehard fan of the Indians since 1960. They are my team. I have seen the Cavs play in person a couple of times and been to some Browns games in the dead of winter at old Muncipal Stadium. These were my teams because they were Cleveland teams, my hometown teams.
But the Indians were always my team.
In reflecting on the loss on Wednesday and the entire season, here is what I have come to believe.
The glory in your season comes from the season itself, not the outcome. Chasing the dream of winning the World Series, of breaking the string of years that stretch from 1949 to, well, whenever we win the World Series, is foolhardy.
Getting upset over not winning the World Series is foolhardy. There is a greater than 95% chance every year that we won't win the World Series.
So why should the success or failure of our team be tied to it?
My epiphany came when I saw the Nationals lose at home to the Cubs last night. You know how many times in the past 6 years the Nationals have lost in the NLDS? Four times in the four years they were in the playoffs. They are worse than the Buffalo Bills in futility because the Nationals don't even make it out of the first round of the playoffs.
You see, if the Nationals and their fans felt that their season came down to the WS then their fans should not come to any games but WS games in the future. The Nationals should, by all rights, play to a nearly empty house (except for families and friends of the players and people who got freebee tickets) every night. Their fans KNOW they are going to win the NL East so why bother coming?
The thing is that a lot of people come to watch baseball for baseball sake. They love the game.
It is when the fans and players and management have the attitude that "I will only consider this a successful season IF..." that the fun is taken out of the game for the fans.
Last year Francona had the players thinking one game at a time. This year during the streak Francona had his players thinking about one game at a time. But somehow, because of the near miss last year and the fact that the pundits and odds makers were all saying the Indians were a lock to win the WS, people started to get the idea that THIS was the season. THIS time we were going to win the WS championship.
And look what happened. Everybody lost sight of the ultimate baseball truths:
(1) the best team on paper doesn't always win. You could go on and say hardly ever wins.
(2) you can never count on your players to play as well as you want them to.
(3) S--- happens, meaning that injuries happen, bad luck happens, fate happens and, of course, a blind squirrel sometimes does find an acorn. All of these conspire to make sure that the best team doesn't always win. Imagine how Yankees fans were feeling when Yan Gomes said that on his game winning hit in game 2 he was just trying to hit the ball to the right side to advance the runner to 3rd base and wound up hitting the ball down the left field line. Isn't that the definition of the blind squirrel finding an acorn?
So many things can keep your team, our team, from winning the series. Yeah, we can blame Francona and, to some extent, he is to blame. He is to blame because he couldn't pull ANY rabbits out of his hat to win this series. He couldn't, this year, overcome (1) through (3) above. You just can't do that every year.
So, my advice to Cleveland fans is to remember that they can't control destiny. They can only enjoy the ride. I am mad as hell that the Indians didn't advance but, truth be told, playing like they were playing against the Yankees sealed that they weren't going to GET to the World Series, let alone win it. It just wasn't in the cards for them this year.
Maybe next year the stars will align and the Indians will win. Maybe I will die before the Indians win the WS. But I can tell you this: On my deathbed...if I am talking about baseball on my deathbed...I won't be saying "Man, why couldn't the Indians just win the WS once in my lifetime?" If I am thinking about baseball at all, if I am talking about baseball at all, I will be talking about Giambi's pinchhit HR in 2014 when we were streaking to get to the wildcard game, Davis' HR of Chapman in 2016 and the streak and all the other records from 2017.
If I die talking about those things I will likely die with a smile on my face because that is baseball. You can't predict it. You can't count on the result in a short series to go your way. What you can count on is that if the body of work for a team in a season or over several seasons looks good, you SHOULD be happy as a fan.
Let's ask your average diehard Browns fan if they would take the Buffalo Bills' frustration over not winning a Super Bowl in so many tries over what they have to deal with now. I hope they would all say "Hell Yes" now and after 4 seasons of that 'frustration'.
If the Indians go to the playoffs for the next two years and then have an exciting team for the next 5 after that and NEVER win the WS during my lifetime, that is a GREAT victory for the franchise, much greater than the one-and-done of the Marlins in 2007.
So, Indians' fans. Rejoice about the ride and never worry about the sudden stop at the end. Just like last year when many Indians' fans I talked to were not that upset after the WS because they knew they had gotten their money's worth out of their team, so it is true this year. We got MORE than our money's worth out of this team.
Peace
Wednesday, October 11, 2017
Thanks for the memories
First, for the 84 hits on my blog site from Russia in the past 4 hours, WTF!?!?! I should probably get the Attorney General on the phone and have him investigate that.
About the Indians, nothing else really to say at this point. Great season, great results but, in the end, you gotta hit, you gotta pitch and you gotta play defense. And, if you can't do all of those things AT LEAST you gotta step up at crunch time and deliver. We had almost NONE of that hero stuff that makes up for uneven play. Too bad. We needed it.
Here are some other thoughts:
Kluber - The guy is hurt. I think it is unlikely he will pitch next year if he is hurt as seriously as I think he is. I was thinking what John Smoltz said, you just can't put that many relievers in without the chance of one of them (in this case Allen) having a hiccup.
Miller - I think Miller has some miles on him, too. I think he will come back strong if his knee gets healthy.
Jose Ramirez - What can you say? Did the Yankees have a good scouting report on him or a good pitching plan? I guess we will find out next year after baseball takes note of this series. Otherwise, I guess all you can say is that he didn't perform on the biggest stages there is. His AB in game 2 against Sabathia with the bases loaded was probably the worst AB I have seen from an Indians' batter in the past two years (even worse than Gomes AB in the WS last year). And Ramirez never came back from that AB. You have to be able to pick up your team if you are the hitter we thought he was. But he didn't.
Lindor - Take away the grand slam and he had nothing this series. A young guy put in a pressure situation and he didn't perform. Given the shape we were in, we needed more from him. His double play ball in the 5th when we had already scored two runs was really a killer, topping off a really bad series for him...other than that incredibly important grand slam.
Encarnacion - Mercifully (or unfortunately) he got hurt. On the glass half empty front he could have had a series like Ramirez if he wasn't hurt, based on Game 1 and Game 5. On the glass half full side he might have run into a couple of HRs if he wasn't hurt, like in Game 3.
Brantley - His injury is really concerning to me. Not the injury, which will likely heal by next year. But the TYPE of injury, almost a non-contact, scratch your head kind of injury and the time it took to recover from that after the time it took him to recover from his shoulder surgery last year. I am afraid his body is falling apart. He needs another big intervention to make his body solid. Otherwise, it will be one thing after another every year and with a guy like Brantley, that might take him out of the league in another 2 years.
Bruce - He was a leader for two games and then disappeared. Still, had everyone played as they should his performance would have been considered solid. Right now it just looks like he had a couple of games of magic and then not much else. But, in truth, he played pretty well. He's gone anyway as I would not be willing to pay him what he wanted which is likely Encarnacion money.
The loss of Zimmer - I don't think it hurt us at all. If we thought Brantley was flailing Zimmer would have been much worse. Think Aaron Judge bad.
Rest of the team - Olson was good. Gomes and Perez played good defense (mostly) and had their offensive moments. Olson and Shaw were good. Carrasco was great. Joe Smith was OK until the end of the last game. The other guys did only a little or, in some cases, nothing to distinguish themselves. We needed more out of the rest of the team but maybe with more experience next year we will get what we need. I mean last year it was Perez and Chisenhall (especially against David Price). This year, except for the Perez HR in a way losing effort, there wasn't much. Last year we got some Bruce-like performances out of guys.
Guys who are in the minors or in the majors but left off the roster - Right now, I don't see any Lindors, Ramirezs or even Clevingers on the horizon. Just spare parts like the major leaguers who didn't make the post-season roster. Too bad because we could use a hitting 3B guy or could use Mejia to jump in and do a Sanchez impersonation next year. Don't think we will get than so what you saw this year is likely to be what you will get next year from all these guys.
Francona - He is a very good manager, but he is not a wizard. Unfortunately, this team needed some wizardry in the post-season and he couldn't provide that this year.
This team was a lot like the Cavs last year. Lots of talent but not able to finish the job. I don't know any way around that other than to get guys hungry for next year. If a pathetic post-season like this doesn't make guys hungry, then they are not breathing. Certainly now they have the post season experience of what it is like to fall on your faces and embarrass yourselves on national TV.
Hopefully they will use that to fire their preparation for next year.
Good season, guys. Finish the job next year. And, on the glass half full side, thanks for giving me three weeks of my time back for the rest of October.
About the Indians, nothing else really to say at this point. Great season, great results but, in the end, you gotta hit, you gotta pitch and you gotta play defense. And, if you can't do all of those things AT LEAST you gotta step up at crunch time and deliver. We had almost NONE of that hero stuff that makes up for uneven play. Too bad. We needed it.
Here are some other thoughts:
Kluber - The guy is hurt. I think it is unlikely he will pitch next year if he is hurt as seriously as I think he is. I was thinking what John Smoltz said, you just can't put that many relievers in without the chance of one of them (in this case Allen) having a hiccup.
Miller - I think Miller has some miles on him, too. I think he will come back strong if his knee gets healthy.
Jose Ramirez - What can you say? Did the Yankees have a good scouting report on him or a good pitching plan? I guess we will find out next year after baseball takes note of this series. Otherwise, I guess all you can say is that he didn't perform on the biggest stages there is. His AB in game 2 against Sabathia with the bases loaded was probably the worst AB I have seen from an Indians' batter in the past two years (even worse than Gomes AB in the WS last year). And Ramirez never came back from that AB. You have to be able to pick up your team if you are the hitter we thought he was. But he didn't.
Lindor - Take away the grand slam and he had nothing this series. A young guy put in a pressure situation and he didn't perform. Given the shape we were in, we needed more from him. His double play ball in the 5th when we had already scored two runs was really a killer, topping off a really bad series for him...other than that incredibly important grand slam.
Encarnacion - Mercifully (or unfortunately) he got hurt. On the glass half empty front he could have had a series like Ramirez if he wasn't hurt, based on Game 1 and Game 5. On the glass half full side he might have run into a couple of HRs if he wasn't hurt, like in Game 3.
Brantley - His injury is really concerning to me. Not the injury, which will likely heal by next year. But the TYPE of injury, almost a non-contact, scratch your head kind of injury and the time it took to recover from that after the time it took him to recover from his shoulder surgery last year. I am afraid his body is falling apart. He needs another big intervention to make his body solid. Otherwise, it will be one thing after another every year and with a guy like Brantley, that might take him out of the league in another 2 years.
Bruce - He was a leader for two games and then disappeared. Still, had everyone played as they should his performance would have been considered solid. Right now it just looks like he had a couple of games of magic and then not much else. But, in truth, he played pretty well. He's gone anyway as I would not be willing to pay him what he wanted which is likely Encarnacion money.
The loss of Zimmer - I don't think it hurt us at all. If we thought Brantley was flailing Zimmer would have been much worse. Think Aaron Judge bad.
Rest of the team - Olson was good. Gomes and Perez played good defense (mostly) and had their offensive moments. Olson and Shaw were good. Carrasco was great. Joe Smith was OK until the end of the last game. The other guys did only a little or, in some cases, nothing to distinguish themselves. We needed more out of the rest of the team but maybe with more experience next year we will get what we need. I mean last year it was Perez and Chisenhall (especially against David Price). This year, except for the Perez HR in a way losing effort, there wasn't much. Last year we got some Bruce-like performances out of guys.
Guys who are in the minors or in the majors but left off the roster - Right now, I don't see any Lindors, Ramirezs or even Clevingers on the horizon. Just spare parts like the major leaguers who didn't make the post-season roster. Too bad because we could use a hitting 3B guy or could use Mejia to jump in and do a Sanchez impersonation next year. Don't think we will get than so what you saw this year is likely to be what you will get next year from all these guys.
Francona - He is a very good manager, but he is not a wizard. Unfortunately, this team needed some wizardry in the post-season and he couldn't provide that this year.
This team was a lot like the Cavs last year. Lots of talent but not able to finish the job. I don't know any way around that other than to get guys hungry for next year. If a pathetic post-season like this doesn't make guys hungry, then they are not breathing. Certainly now they have the post season experience of what it is like to fall on your faces and embarrass yourselves on national TV.
Hopefully they will use that to fire their preparation for next year.
Good season, guys. Finish the job next year. And, on the glass half full side, thanks for giving me three weeks of my time back for the rest of October.
Tuesday, October 10, 2017
Hit or go home
Well, that didn't go so well! So now we are on to game 5.
We will be at home. We will have the AL Cy Young award winner on the mound. Miller and Allen will be rested. While nothing is ever a lock, this gives us a great chance to win, right?
The only problem is in baseball there are no style points. The one with the most runs wins and no matter how well your team pitches, if it doesn't score runs you don't win.
Just look at the Nationals yesterday. Scherzer has a no-hitter through 6 innings. The only problem is that his team could only muster 3 hits and 1 run for the entire game. It left his great pitching performance vulnerable to any hiccup and the bullpen with the same vulnerability. The end result is that the Cubs got a run in the 7th and one in the 8th to win 2-1.
If the Yankees needed a blueprint of how to beat a Cy Young award winner at his best, there you have it. Just make sure the other team's offense sucks. Just like in Game 3.
The post-season is about performance and, usually, performance above what is seen in the regular season, even if only for short spurts (insert Jay Bruce in games 1 and 2).
We have a bunch of holes in our lineup. DH, C, 3B. That is the given. The issue is that Lindor isn't hitting and Ramirez isn't hitting. Without those two there is a chance we won't be able to score any runs. Another 5 feet on Lindor's drive in the second game and we might not be having this conversation...but the problem would still exist as that would have given Lindor only two hits in 3 games at that point. We need to hit better. We need to find a way. People need to get it done. Heck, Kyle Schwarber hadn't played almost the whole season and he came back to help the Cubs win last year. We need some of that plus our main guys need to hit.
No matter how well we pitch we need to score some runs. I mean, if I am Francona I am even considering putting my backup catcher as my DH. That's how bad the hitting situation is. I mean Encarnacion on one leg is better than Brantley whose only hit this series was on a meatball over the middle of the plate with the Indians behind by 4 and could give the illusion he has found his stroke. Hmmmm?!?
So, the formula for winning is obviously to have Kluber be Kluber and the bullpen to be in shutdown mode. But we need to hit. Lindor and Ramirez need big games. We need to get about 6 hits and some runs/RBIs out of Jackson, Bruce, Santana and Kipnis and we need to get game 2-like production out of our DH, C, 3B (probably 4 times on base, good small ball and no double plays in 12 plate appearances).
I have never been as at ease about a crucial game as I am about this one. Not because I think we have it in the bag, because that is not what I think. The reason I am at ease is that the formula for winning this game is simple: just hit....or go home for the winter. No matter how the Indians pitch, if they don't hit, it doesn't matter. Just ask Max Scherzer.
We will be at home. We will have the AL Cy Young award winner on the mound. Miller and Allen will be rested. While nothing is ever a lock, this gives us a great chance to win, right?
The only problem is in baseball there are no style points. The one with the most runs wins and no matter how well your team pitches, if it doesn't score runs you don't win.
Just look at the Nationals yesterday. Scherzer has a no-hitter through 6 innings. The only problem is that his team could only muster 3 hits and 1 run for the entire game. It left his great pitching performance vulnerable to any hiccup and the bullpen with the same vulnerability. The end result is that the Cubs got a run in the 7th and one in the 8th to win 2-1.
If the Yankees needed a blueprint of how to beat a Cy Young award winner at his best, there you have it. Just make sure the other team's offense sucks. Just like in Game 3.
The post-season is about performance and, usually, performance above what is seen in the regular season, even if only for short spurts (insert Jay Bruce in games 1 and 2).
We have a bunch of holes in our lineup. DH, C, 3B. That is the given. The issue is that Lindor isn't hitting and Ramirez isn't hitting. Without those two there is a chance we won't be able to score any runs. Another 5 feet on Lindor's drive in the second game and we might not be having this conversation...but the problem would still exist as that would have given Lindor only two hits in 3 games at that point. We need to hit better. We need to find a way. People need to get it done. Heck, Kyle Schwarber hadn't played almost the whole season and he came back to help the Cubs win last year. We need some of that plus our main guys need to hit.
No matter how well we pitch we need to score some runs. I mean, if I am Francona I am even considering putting my backup catcher as my DH. That's how bad the hitting situation is. I mean Encarnacion on one leg is better than Brantley whose only hit this series was on a meatball over the middle of the plate with the Indians behind by 4 and could give the illusion he has found his stroke. Hmmmm?!?
So, the formula for winning is obviously to have Kluber be Kluber and the bullpen to be in shutdown mode. But we need to hit. Lindor and Ramirez need big games. We need to get about 6 hits and some runs/RBIs out of Jackson, Bruce, Santana and Kipnis and we need to get game 2-like production out of our DH, C, 3B (probably 4 times on base, good small ball and no double plays in 12 plate appearances).
I have never been as at ease about a crucial game as I am about this one. Not because I think we have it in the bag, because that is not what I think. The reason I am at ease is that the formula for winning this game is simple: just hit....or go home for the winter. No matter how the Indians pitch, if they don't hit, it doesn't matter. Just ask Max Scherzer.
Monday, October 9, 2017
Thoughts from Game 3 and thinking about Game 4
Look, this is baseball. Francona talks about being able to survive the ups and downs of the playoffs.
I was reading Tom Verduzzo's (sp?) column about how Indians fans should be aware of what chokers the Indians are as they have lost 16 of 20 elimination games in the playoffs over the years. Well, I have been drinking the Francona koolaid and I am not fazed by that attempt at baiting Indians fans or giving Yankees fans hope...or trying to get people to watch to up the ratings.
Last night's game does give us some things to talk about. Here are a few:
1. Michael Brantley is lost. Mark McGwire, late in his career, was having lower extremity problems and said something like: 'I have no base. You can't hit without a base.' By that he meant if you are having leg/foot problems you can't generate any power. What's left is rolling over a lot of balls and being late of pitches that you would normally hit. Brantley is put in an unusual situation. He wants to play and the Indians need him to be productive. This isn't working. Time to hope Encarnacion comes back...but with a bum ankle he has no base either.
2. Regarding Encarnacion, I said that in the playoffs you can survive two holes in your lineup and, with the Indians' pitching, maybe even three nearly automatic outs. But 4 or more guys who can't hit in the playoff environment leads to what you saw last night. In the 9-8 game our lower hitters actually helped out and they were productive in the 4-0 game, in terms of getting on base. Right now we have Urshela, our catcher and our DH as unproductive. We could survive that IF Ramirez was being Ramirez. But he isn't. He currently looks like the current version of Michael Brantley. If there has been a goat so far in this series it is Ramirez. He really needs to pick it up for the rest of the playoffs or the rest of the playoffs won't be that long.
3. Jay Bruce has been effective but what you see is what you get. Don't expect him to hit more than .250 in the playoffs with some power. I would like to see him walk some and be more selective. The way he and Ramirez were flailing at Tanaka's dirtballs was more like I would have expected out of Yandy Diaz, that is, out of a rookie.
Regarding tonight's game, it will be interesting. Severino has had a great year. I don't expect his night tonight to end like his playoff game against Minnesota so Bauer needs to be on. As far as Bauer, I don't think he is blowing smoke about the short rest. I think he really does have the ability, maybe more than any other pitcher on the Indians' roster, of being effective on short rest. Still, he has never done it so there is some fear that he might not be as in control as he was in Game 1. And,no, Mr. Verduzzo, that isn't because of any predisposition to the Indians losing elimination games. It's just because he hasn't done it before. But, as usual, I trust in Tito. I would rather have Bauer starting than Tomlin, especially against the Yankees. And I don't know what happened to Salazar, although I expect to see him eat innings tonight if the game gets ugly for the Indians early.
This is playoff baseball. As Livingston said in the Plain Dealer today, there will be angst. As Francona said, he tries to set his team up to handle that angst and think towards the next game.
What the Indians have accomplished this season gives me peace. It really does, just like last year's 7 game loss in the WS left me peaceful on what the Indians accomplished. After this series, after this season, I will still have that peace and still be a diehard Indians' fan. Nothing will change. Go Tribe!
I was reading Tom Verduzzo's (sp?) column about how Indians fans should be aware of what chokers the Indians are as they have lost 16 of 20 elimination games in the playoffs over the years. Well, I have been drinking the Francona koolaid and I am not fazed by that attempt at baiting Indians fans or giving Yankees fans hope...or trying to get people to watch to up the ratings.
Last night's game does give us some things to talk about. Here are a few:
1. Michael Brantley is lost. Mark McGwire, late in his career, was having lower extremity problems and said something like: 'I have no base. You can't hit without a base.' By that he meant if you are having leg/foot problems you can't generate any power. What's left is rolling over a lot of balls and being late of pitches that you would normally hit. Brantley is put in an unusual situation. He wants to play and the Indians need him to be productive. This isn't working. Time to hope Encarnacion comes back...but with a bum ankle he has no base either.
2. Regarding Encarnacion, I said that in the playoffs you can survive two holes in your lineup and, with the Indians' pitching, maybe even three nearly automatic outs. But 4 or more guys who can't hit in the playoff environment leads to what you saw last night. In the 9-8 game our lower hitters actually helped out and they were productive in the 4-0 game, in terms of getting on base. Right now we have Urshela, our catcher and our DH as unproductive. We could survive that IF Ramirez was being Ramirez. But he isn't. He currently looks like the current version of Michael Brantley. If there has been a goat so far in this series it is Ramirez. He really needs to pick it up for the rest of the playoffs or the rest of the playoffs won't be that long.
3. Jay Bruce has been effective but what you see is what you get. Don't expect him to hit more than .250 in the playoffs with some power. I would like to see him walk some and be more selective. The way he and Ramirez were flailing at Tanaka's dirtballs was more like I would have expected out of Yandy Diaz, that is, out of a rookie.
Regarding tonight's game, it will be interesting. Severino has had a great year. I don't expect his night tonight to end like his playoff game against Minnesota so Bauer needs to be on. As far as Bauer, I don't think he is blowing smoke about the short rest. I think he really does have the ability, maybe more than any other pitcher on the Indians' roster, of being effective on short rest. Still, he has never done it so there is some fear that he might not be as in control as he was in Game 1. And,no, Mr. Verduzzo, that isn't because of any predisposition to the Indians losing elimination games. It's just because he hasn't done it before. But, as usual, I trust in Tito. I would rather have Bauer starting than Tomlin, especially against the Yankees. And I don't know what happened to Salazar, although I expect to see him eat innings tonight if the game gets ugly for the Indians early.
This is playoff baseball. As Livingston said in the Plain Dealer today, there will be angst. As Francona said, he tries to set his team up to handle that angst and think towards the next game.
What the Indians have accomplished this season gives me peace. It really does, just like last year's 7 game loss in the WS left me peaceful on what the Indians accomplished. After this series, after this season, I will still have that peace and still be a diehard Indians' fan. Nothing will change. Go Tribe!
Friday, October 6, 2017
Question for the off day tomorrow: Do we replace Encarnacion on the roster
For those of us who have had sprained ankles tonight's was especially gruesome. When I was younger they said 6 weeks to fully recover. I know with modern medicine this can be faster but how many of us think Encarnacion will be ready in the next 2 days, or 4 days, or even the next two weeks?
He apparently left the locker room on crutches wearing a boot to protect his ankle.
Now, MLB rules allow a team to petition to replace an injured player (Boston just did it with Eduardo Nunez who hurt his knee in game 1). If they would replace Encarnacion he would be done for this playoff series AND the league championship series, if the Indians get that far.
He could come back for the World Series which is scheduled to start on Oct. 24th. That's 18 days from when it was injured which MIGHT happen, depending on if it looked worse than it really is.
So, the question of the day is: do you replace Encarnacion now or go the rest of this series and see how is progressing before you replace him and, as a result, go with a short roster the rest of this series.
If you replace him who do you replace him with? Another pitcher for the rest of this series? Yandy Diaz as a replacement hitter, especially when we see how weak Michael Brantley appears to be right now?
You still would get to readjust your roster next series if you replace Encarnacion. He just wouldn't be eligible.
So, this is a good topic for Saturday. What would you do?
He apparently left the locker room on crutches wearing a boot to protect his ankle.
Now, MLB rules allow a team to petition to replace an injured player (Boston just did it with Eduardo Nunez who hurt his knee in game 1). If they would replace Encarnacion he would be done for this playoff series AND the league championship series, if the Indians get that far.
He could come back for the World Series which is scheduled to start on Oct. 24th. That's 18 days from when it was injured which MIGHT happen, depending on if it looked worse than it really is.
So, the question of the day is: do you replace Encarnacion now or go the rest of this series and see how is progressing before you replace him and, as a result, go with a short roster the rest of this series.
If you replace him who do you replace him with? Another pitcher for the rest of this series? Yandy Diaz as a replacement hitter, especially when we see how weak Michael Brantley appears to be right now?
You still would get to readjust your roster next series if you replace Encarnacion. He just wouldn't be eligible.
So, this is a good topic for Saturday. What would you do?
Game 2 Takeaways
First, Yan Gomes has to feel better than he did last year at this time. His confidence looked like it was building toward the end of the regular season and this game can only help. His defense was great and his hitting was timely. I was screaming at the TV for the Indians not to give up....Gomes never did.
Second, Tito hardly ever makes a mistake. Letting Brantley DH was trying to catch lightning in a bottle. Well, I have seen Brantley for more than a week now and he is absolutely no help to this team right now. Chisenhall should have been the DH when Encarnacion got hurt. Hopefully that will be the way it is on Sunday. Brantley should be saved for the Kirk Gibson moment in a game.
Third, regarding Encarnacion he had not looked good this series up to the time of his injury. He looked, frankly, like he did in April and May. I mean EXACTLY like he did in those months. Losing him, and I am sure we have lost him for the rest of this series and most likely the next if we get that far. Losing him on paper is a huge loss but losing the April Encarnacion would not be that big of a loss.
Fourth, Kluber looked so bad. Mental note: Starting him on 5 days rest might not have been that good an idea and it makes me wonder what Carrasco will look like on, what is it, 8 days rest.
Fifth, the bullpen, except for Clevinger, looked good again. Tomlin really gutted it out. Just like last year, getting more out than his tools would suggest he has to give. And he gets a victory.
Sixth, Jose Ramirez really looks mad. Unfortunately usually lost follow mad which, eventually, is followed by a hot streak. Can we skip over the remaining mad and completely skip the lost and go right into the hot streak? We need the hot Jose now more than ever. If I have to watch another AB like his bases loaded one tonight I think I am going to puke.
Seventh, I am really glad for Lindor. He could be Ramirez part deux right now if not for that grand slam off the fair pole.
Eighth, is that Austin Jackson or is that Rajai Davis wearing Austin Jackson's uniform?
Nineth, we need Chisenhall to be the April-May version now more than ever. Right now he just looks like a HB above Brantley....a lot like Gomes looked pre-injury last year.
Tenth, and final. Bruce. Doesn't he just epitomize what a post-season veteran should play like? I wish Encarnacion had not gotten hurt because I think watching Bruce play might have elevated Edwin's game. Hopefully it elevates everyone's game. I am pretty sure it has helped Lindor and some of the other players elevate their games already. What a great pickup by us.
Second, Tito hardly ever makes a mistake. Letting Brantley DH was trying to catch lightning in a bottle. Well, I have seen Brantley for more than a week now and he is absolutely no help to this team right now. Chisenhall should have been the DH when Encarnacion got hurt. Hopefully that will be the way it is on Sunday. Brantley should be saved for the Kirk Gibson moment in a game.
Third, regarding Encarnacion he had not looked good this series up to the time of his injury. He looked, frankly, like he did in April and May. I mean EXACTLY like he did in those months. Losing him, and I am sure we have lost him for the rest of this series and most likely the next if we get that far. Losing him on paper is a huge loss but losing the April Encarnacion would not be that big of a loss.
Fourth, Kluber looked so bad. Mental note: Starting him on 5 days rest might not have been that good an idea and it makes me wonder what Carrasco will look like on, what is it, 8 days rest.
Fifth, the bullpen, except for Clevinger, looked good again. Tomlin really gutted it out. Just like last year, getting more out than his tools would suggest he has to give. And he gets a victory.
Sixth, Jose Ramirez really looks mad. Unfortunately usually lost follow mad which, eventually, is followed by a hot streak. Can we skip over the remaining mad and completely skip the lost and go right into the hot streak? We need the hot Jose now more than ever. If I have to watch another AB like his bases loaded one tonight I think I am going to puke.
Seventh, I am really glad for Lindor. He could be Ramirez part deux right now if not for that grand slam off the fair pole.
Eighth, is that Austin Jackson or is that Rajai Davis wearing Austin Jackson's uniform?
Nineth, we need Chisenhall to be the April-May version now more than ever. Right now he just looks like a HB above Brantley....a lot like Gomes looked pre-injury last year.
Tenth, and final. Bruce. Doesn't he just epitomize what a post-season veteran should play like? I wish Encarnacion had not gotten hurt because I think watching Bruce play might have elevated Edwin's game. Hopefully it elevates everyone's game. I am pretty sure it has helped Lindor and some of the other players elevate their games already. What a great pickup by us.
Game 1 in the books
No one really knows what will happen day-to-day in baseball. That's why they play the games.
On paper the next two games we have our best two pitchers but victory is never guaranteed.
One thing for sure is that we have to hit better to avoid 2-1 games. If we hit well and have decent luck we will be in a good position to win.
That being said, let's talk about Game 1 last night.
You know when you are working out and you see yourself in the mirror from day to day and you don't see any difference and then one day a friend who hasn't seen you in 6 months tells you how great you look? Well that is the fate of the Cleveland Indians' fan. Sometimes we forget how good our pitching is. We really do. We focus on Kluber. We focus on Carrasco. We focus on Miller. We EXPECT success but only because we have seen it so many times that now the fear that comes with being an Indians' fan melts away.
But last night was different. Bauer was amazing and against a lineup that just two nights before has dismantled the ace of the Twins, Ervin Santana. Now, no one is going to mistake Santana for Corey Kluber, but Santana is good. The Yankees beat a good pitcher on Tuesday. On Thursday they faced Trevor Bauer and he totally disarmed the best offense in baseball. Our 3rd best starter! Yeah, we can all give Tito credit as we should. He is a genius. And we hit just enough to win. But Bauer is the one who had to do it on the mound. Can he last for 10 years throwing this many curve balls? Probably not. But while he is throwing them successfully, he is being dominant.
So, sit back Indians' fans and, despite anything that happens the rest of the year, realize that we now have three potential aces on the Indians' pitching staff. We didn't trade for these aces, although we did trade, early in their careers for the big 3. But we have them. Enjoy them and enjoy the rest of the season.
Now let's go score some big runs off of the Yankees today and take game 2. Yesterday was the Yankees game to steal in this series and Bauer and Bruce shut them down. Now we need to press the issue and win today.
On paper the next two games we have our best two pitchers but victory is never guaranteed.
One thing for sure is that we have to hit better to avoid 2-1 games. If we hit well and have decent luck we will be in a good position to win.
That being said, let's talk about Game 1 last night.
You know when you are working out and you see yourself in the mirror from day to day and you don't see any difference and then one day a friend who hasn't seen you in 6 months tells you how great you look? Well that is the fate of the Cleveland Indians' fan. Sometimes we forget how good our pitching is. We really do. We focus on Kluber. We focus on Carrasco. We focus on Miller. We EXPECT success but only because we have seen it so many times that now the fear that comes with being an Indians' fan melts away.
But last night was different. Bauer was amazing and against a lineup that just two nights before has dismantled the ace of the Twins, Ervin Santana. Now, no one is going to mistake Santana for Corey Kluber, but Santana is good. The Yankees beat a good pitcher on Tuesday. On Thursday they faced Trevor Bauer and he totally disarmed the best offense in baseball. Our 3rd best starter! Yeah, we can all give Tito credit as we should. He is a genius. And we hit just enough to win. But Bauer is the one who had to do it on the mound. Can he last for 10 years throwing this many curve balls? Probably not. But while he is throwing them successfully, he is being dominant.
So, sit back Indians' fans and, despite anything that happens the rest of the year, realize that we now have three potential aces on the Indians' pitching staff. We didn't trade for these aces, although we did trade, early in their careers for the big 3. But we have them. Enjoy them and enjoy the rest of the season.
Now let's go score some big runs off of the Yankees today and take game 2. Yesterday was the Yankees game to steal in this series and Bauer and Bruce shut them down. Now we need to press the issue and win today.
Wednesday, October 4, 2017
Thoughts on the tentative ALDS roster
First, I put my trust in Tito. What he says goes. His only managerial mistakes in the past has been to let his locker room get away from him when he was in Boston. Or at least that is my perception of his managerial mistakes. He brought genius out of necessity last year in his use of his bullpen. I trust him to do the same this year.
Now, let's take a look at what he is proposing:
Starters: I totally disagree with his rotation. Carrasco and Kluber should pitch 4 of the 5 games in the ALDS with one of them (Kluber in game 4) being on short rest. That being said, I trust the analytics and Tito's starters. I also disagree with the use of Tomlin in Game 4 but I don't believe that will actually happen. So, again, I defer to Francona.
Bullpen: If we are really honest, there was no need for McAllister on this roster. A check from last year shows that he was only used in mop-up roles in the post-season. If that is as far as your trust goes on a guy, then I don't see any need for him on the post-season roster. Plus, if you look closely down the stretch this year, he wasn't that effective when brought into high leverage situations. I already covered Goody in my earlier post. I just don't see Tito having the confidence to use him in meaningful situations in the post-season. The only decision I do not agree with is Otero. He is an extreme groundball pitcher and could be useful in certain high-leverage situations. That being said, I trust in Tito that including Salazar is much more of a plus than losing Otero is a minus. He could have done the easy thing but he didn't. And I commend him for that and hope it all works out. If it doesn't it was still a great and novel idea.
As far as his use of Clevinger and Salazar (and maybe Tomlin) in unique ways, I am on-board. The only issue is that these guys weren't in these roles this year much, if at all, so there is the unknown of how they will respond. I still remember the Joaquin Andujar meltdown for the Cardinals some years back when things didn't go well for him after being brought in in a new role for him in the 7th game of the world series. That being said, I love the flexibility this gives the Indians in limiting the innings of Miller, Shaw and Allen to keep them somewhat fresh for their late inning assignments.
I wanted to comment on Tyler Olson. He has responded to almost every challenge this year. At first I thought having Clevinger and Salazar use as dynamic (multiple roles and a variety of lengths of outings) relievers might make it hard to get in a situational guy like Olson. After thinking about it, however, I think this only limits Olson a little. By that I mean you wouldn't want him coming in to replace Clevinger after Clevinger has faced one batter. That would be against what I believe is the dynamic reliever idea. But in thinking about it I can see various situations (e.g., replacing a starter in a jam when a tough left-handed batter is up or having Shaw go 1/3 of an inning, Olson 1/3 of an inning and Allen an inning and a third at the end of game) where Olson can be use effectively. I think Francona even did that at least once down the stretch.
I still am unconvinced about Joe Smith but I now get my wish for him to prove what it cost us to get him. Let's hope he succeeds as we gave away more for him than we realize right now (compare what we gave away to get Jay Bruce just 9 days later). I can see the need for him as a situational righty who can also get some left-handed batters out and I hope it works out. Again, I trust Francona.
As far as the position players, I think we can sum it up by saying that Francona knows what he wants to do in the post-season and he is going to do it. The only thing he has not protected himself from with this roster is injuries. I think he is more susceptible to those if, say Kipnis or Urshela go down. He trusts in his veterans and assumes that they will strap 'em up and step up to the task in the post-season, even if they have significant rust on them. The only real surprises are no Yandy Diaz and the inclusion of Greg Allen and Erik Gonzalez on the roster. It is obvious how much Francona favors defense in the post-season and the fact that Diaz is a rookie of questionable offensive upside made more questionable by this being his first post-season. If Greg Allen gets even one AB in the post-season it is probably not a good thing for the Indians but he could steal us a run here or there as a pinch runner and defensive replacement. This is far from the first time a team has used a speedy, defense-only guy as the 25th man. Let's just hope we don't get into a Michael Martinez situation. However, even is we do, I actually have more faith in Greg Allen than in Martinez as Allen is an unknown who might sneak something in on our opponent. I mean, it wasn't until David Justice came to play here that we found out that he hits lefties really well, especially lefties like Jim Poole. Imagine how much of a secret weapon Allen might be with many less reps to get a handle on him.
So there you have it. Will Terry Francona break new ground with his dynamic reliever approach with Salazar and Clevinger? Will he be the first manager in recent (if ever) post-season history to intentionally go into a post-season with the idea of using tandem starters (hint!), maybe even three of them in the same game? Will the Indians win this post-season with this roster or will Francona be second-guessed through the next generation of Indians fans? Time will tell.
Now, let's take a look at what he is proposing:
Starters: I totally disagree with his rotation. Carrasco and Kluber should pitch 4 of the 5 games in the ALDS with one of them (Kluber in game 4) being on short rest. That being said, I trust the analytics and Tito's starters. I also disagree with the use of Tomlin in Game 4 but I don't believe that will actually happen. So, again, I defer to Francona.
Bullpen: If we are really honest, there was no need for McAllister on this roster. A check from last year shows that he was only used in mop-up roles in the post-season. If that is as far as your trust goes on a guy, then I don't see any need for him on the post-season roster. Plus, if you look closely down the stretch this year, he wasn't that effective when brought into high leverage situations. I already covered Goody in my earlier post. I just don't see Tito having the confidence to use him in meaningful situations in the post-season. The only decision I do not agree with is Otero. He is an extreme groundball pitcher and could be useful in certain high-leverage situations. That being said, I trust in Tito that including Salazar is much more of a plus than losing Otero is a minus. He could have done the easy thing but he didn't. And I commend him for that and hope it all works out. If it doesn't it was still a great and novel idea.
As far as his use of Clevinger and Salazar (and maybe Tomlin) in unique ways, I am on-board. The only issue is that these guys weren't in these roles this year much, if at all, so there is the unknown of how they will respond. I still remember the Joaquin Andujar meltdown for the Cardinals some years back when things didn't go well for him after being brought in in a new role for him in the 7th game of the world series. That being said, I love the flexibility this gives the Indians in limiting the innings of Miller, Shaw and Allen to keep them somewhat fresh for their late inning assignments.
I wanted to comment on Tyler Olson. He has responded to almost every challenge this year. At first I thought having Clevinger and Salazar use as dynamic (multiple roles and a variety of lengths of outings) relievers might make it hard to get in a situational guy like Olson. After thinking about it, however, I think this only limits Olson a little. By that I mean you wouldn't want him coming in to replace Clevinger after Clevinger has faced one batter. That would be against what I believe is the dynamic reliever idea. But in thinking about it I can see various situations (e.g., replacing a starter in a jam when a tough left-handed batter is up or having Shaw go 1/3 of an inning, Olson 1/3 of an inning and Allen an inning and a third at the end of game) where Olson can be use effectively. I think Francona even did that at least once down the stretch.
I still am unconvinced about Joe Smith but I now get my wish for him to prove what it cost us to get him. Let's hope he succeeds as we gave away more for him than we realize right now (compare what we gave away to get Jay Bruce just 9 days later). I can see the need for him as a situational righty who can also get some left-handed batters out and I hope it works out. Again, I trust Francona.
As far as the position players, I think we can sum it up by saying that Francona knows what he wants to do in the post-season and he is going to do it. The only thing he has not protected himself from with this roster is injuries. I think he is more susceptible to those if, say Kipnis or Urshela go down. He trusts in his veterans and assumes that they will strap 'em up and step up to the task in the post-season, even if they have significant rust on them. The only real surprises are no Yandy Diaz and the inclusion of Greg Allen and Erik Gonzalez on the roster. It is obvious how much Francona favors defense in the post-season and the fact that Diaz is a rookie of questionable offensive upside made more questionable by this being his first post-season. If Greg Allen gets even one AB in the post-season it is probably not a good thing for the Indians but he could steal us a run here or there as a pinch runner and defensive replacement. This is far from the first time a team has used a speedy, defense-only guy as the 25th man. Let's just hope we don't get into a Michael Martinez situation. However, even is we do, I actually have more faith in Greg Allen than in Martinez as Allen is an unknown who might sneak something in on our opponent. I mean, it wasn't until David Justice came to play here that we found out that he hits lefties really well, especially lefties like Jim Poole. Imagine how much of a secret weapon Allen might be with many less reps to get a handle on him.
So there you have it. Will Terry Francona break new ground with his dynamic reliever approach with Salazar and Clevinger? Will he be the first manager in recent (if ever) post-season history to intentionally go into a post-season with the idea of using tandem starters (hint!), maybe even three of them in the same game? Will the Indians win this post-season with this roster or will Francona be second-guessed through the next generation of Indians fans? Time will tell.
Monday, October 2, 2017
2016 Draft - a look back
My initial impressions of the 2016 draft was that the Indians managed their money well and got some upside in terms of HS players and some low-ceiling but low floor college pitches in the first 10 rounds and some below the radar college players who fell to them in the rounds past round 10. To do this they sacrificed a bit and picked some college seniors who in the first 10 rounds who were obviously cheap.
.
We are now about a year and a half away from that draft and I wanted to revisit it to see how that draft looks now.
Bottom line: The draft still looks good although, at this point, I have to give it a "B" as their top picks are still developing. But as I said previously, this draft hinges on Benson and Jones. If they both tank this draft is pretty weak. If they both succeed and some of the other draftees listed below just continue on their current development path, this draft is a real strong one. We have already used two of these picks to help the Indians win this year so, in that sense, this draft already has a leg up as being a good draft.
Let's look at this draft pick-by-pick:
Will Benson - He still has some big question marks in terms of his hit tool. At times he looked like he could turn on a good fastball and at times his swing looked too long. He shows speed and power and was tapping into that power more as this season drew to an end. He could be ready for a breakout year next year at low A ball. In any case, his eventual upside or lack thereof might not be determined for another couple of years. One thing is clear so far: he is not exceeding expectations and, for me, is a little underwhelming at this point.
Nolan Jones - He was deemed as one of the best HS hitters in the 2016 draft class. So far he has lived up to that with a good batting eye and a good hit tool. Still, he has virtually no power which will not play well at 3B and his defense is still shaky. Jones has proven to me that, barring injury, he will play in the majors. The question is at what performance level. Another guy who has not overwhelmed so far.
Logan Ice - To me, he is an overdraft. The Indians stacked the deck for him as far as having a successful first full season. Whereas many college juniors start their first full season in high A ball, Ice started and finished his season in LOW A Lake County. Even with that advantage Ice barely hit. He was a catch first guy in his first two years in college and hit some his 3rd year. However, that year now looks like a mirage. Still, the Indians do have a recent track record of developing hitting ability in defense first catchers so there is still some hope. However, Ice's development pathway has really slowed down and won't accelerate until he shows he can mash professional pitching in the low minors.
Aaron Civale/Shane Beiber - These two guys have been as advertised: strike-throwing advanced pitchers. However, using Adam Plutko as the yardstick for these types of pitchers, you can see how these guys can fade away if they don't go all Greg Maddux on their opponents. These guys look great so far but it is too early to tell if their stuff plays at AAA and in the majors.
Connor Capel - Low A ball success is not a good predictor of future success but Capel handled his assignment at Lake County fairly well. Again, by 'fairly' I mean that he didn't dominate AND he wasn't dominated, even though he was youngish for this league. His power-speed comination and the fact he showed some plate discipline while batting against pitchers more experienced than him is very promising. Right now the jury is still out on his long term projection but centerfielders who hit 20+ HRs, even in the low minors, have to be given some respect.
Ulysses Cantu - He was hurt last year and so started slowly and started fast this year. I thought he looked great and that the Indians found a bargain. However, he tailed off at the end of the season and didn't show as much power as I would have liked to see. The jury is still out on him but I think his development path may be getting very long at this point.
Michael Tinsley - He gets an incomplete. Next year, if he is healthy, we will get a better feel for what we have in thim
Andrew Lantrip - See Tinsley
Hosea Nelson - A toolsy guy, he was a stretch at #9 but I understand the gamble. Take a speedy, under the radar guy who will sign for slot or a little below.
Samad Taylor - He is already a success for the Indians as he was used to help get Joe Smith. So, from a draft perspective, this was an excellent pick on that alone. I think his upside is really good and, as I have said a couple of times, we will rue the Joe Smith trade down the road unless he is a big contributor this post-season.
Andrew Calica - He is as advertised. Good hit tool. Average to below average everything else. For an 11th round pick he is a good one because, frankly, anything you get from an 11th round pick who signed for near slot is gravy.
Zach Plesac - The injured college pitcher....see Vinnie Pestano. I think that is a good comp for Plesac and his results at the end of this season, after missing one entire pro season (half last year, half this year) with injury validate that comp...at least so far. Good pick that might turn into a great one.
Gavin Collins - You hope to be able to turn one good tool into something more with college guys you draft this late. So far Collins, also slowed by injury in the first year of his pro career, looks like a good pick at #13.
Mitch Longo - I cannot tell you how many MAC or even Ohio State guys we have selected in late rounds who were not very good over the years. Longo looked like just an organizational guy but, after missing a lot of the season with injury he finished the season strong at both Lake County and Lynchburg. I mean, this guy was SMOKIN' hot even through the abbreviated Carolina League playoffs. He had the best year of any of the 2016 hitters we drafted. This vaults him up to at least suspect if not low level prospect.
Ben Krauth - The typical college strike-throwing reliever drafted by the Indians in lower rounds, Krauth has had low minors success so, at this point, he is a very good pick. We will see if we get anything out of him but, as a LHP, there is always hope.
Dakody Clemmer/Skyler Arias - These guys get incompletes as their drug suspensions don't give us anything to analyze.
Trenton Brooks, Raymond Burgos, Michael Leftkewicz, Jonathan Laureano, Tanner Tully and Jamal Rutledge all look like organizational guys. Except for Laureano (who they still see with long term projection) and Tully (who established his minor league Josh Tomlin-like worth this year), I could see all of these guys being gone by the end of spring training next year.
Ryder Ryan - Again, he is already a success because he was used to get Jay Bruce. The Indians guessed right that Ryan's velocity could be harnessed with repeated reps in the pros, making him an attractive target for the Mets in that trade.
.
We are now about a year and a half away from that draft and I wanted to revisit it to see how that draft looks now.
Bottom line: The draft still looks good although, at this point, I have to give it a "B" as their top picks are still developing. But as I said previously, this draft hinges on Benson and Jones. If they both tank this draft is pretty weak. If they both succeed and some of the other draftees listed below just continue on their current development path, this draft is a real strong one. We have already used two of these picks to help the Indians win this year so, in that sense, this draft already has a leg up as being a good draft.
Let's look at this draft pick-by-pick:
Will Benson - He still has some big question marks in terms of his hit tool. At times he looked like he could turn on a good fastball and at times his swing looked too long. He shows speed and power and was tapping into that power more as this season drew to an end. He could be ready for a breakout year next year at low A ball. In any case, his eventual upside or lack thereof might not be determined for another couple of years. One thing is clear so far: he is not exceeding expectations and, for me, is a little underwhelming at this point.
Nolan Jones - He was deemed as one of the best HS hitters in the 2016 draft class. So far he has lived up to that with a good batting eye and a good hit tool. Still, he has virtually no power which will not play well at 3B and his defense is still shaky. Jones has proven to me that, barring injury, he will play in the majors. The question is at what performance level. Another guy who has not overwhelmed so far.
Logan Ice - To me, he is an overdraft. The Indians stacked the deck for him as far as having a successful first full season. Whereas many college juniors start their first full season in high A ball, Ice started and finished his season in LOW A Lake County. Even with that advantage Ice barely hit. He was a catch first guy in his first two years in college and hit some his 3rd year. However, that year now looks like a mirage. Still, the Indians do have a recent track record of developing hitting ability in defense first catchers so there is still some hope. However, Ice's development pathway has really slowed down and won't accelerate until he shows he can mash professional pitching in the low minors.
Aaron Civale/Shane Beiber - These two guys have been as advertised: strike-throwing advanced pitchers. However, using Adam Plutko as the yardstick for these types of pitchers, you can see how these guys can fade away if they don't go all Greg Maddux on their opponents. These guys look great so far but it is too early to tell if their stuff plays at AAA and in the majors.
Connor Capel - Low A ball success is not a good predictor of future success but Capel handled his assignment at Lake County fairly well. Again, by 'fairly' I mean that he didn't dominate AND he wasn't dominated, even though he was youngish for this league. His power-speed comination and the fact he showed some plate discipline while batting against pitchers more experienced than him is very promising. Right now the jury is still out on his long term projection but centerfielders who hit 20+ HRs, even in the low minors, have to be given some respect.
Ulysses Cantu - He was hurt last year and so started slowly and started fast this year. I thought he looked great and that the Indians found a bargain. However, he tailed off at the end of the season and didn't show as much power as I would have liked to see. The jury is still out on him but I think his development path may be getting very long at this point.
Michael Tinsley - He gets an incomplete. Next year, if he is healthy, we will get a better feel for what we have in thim
Andrew Lantrip - See Tinsley
Hosea Nelson - A toolsy guy, he was a stretch at #9 but I understand the gamble. Take a speedy, under the radar guy who will sign for slot or a little below.
Samad Taylor - He is already a success for the Indians as he was used to help get Joe Smith. So, from a draft perspective, this was an excellent pick on that alone. I think his upside is really good and, as I have said a couple of times, we will rue the Joe Smith trade down the road unless he is a big contributor this post-season.
Andrew Calica - He is as advertised. Good hit tool. Average to below average everything else. For an 11th round pick he is a good one because, frankly, anything you get from an 11th round pick who signed for near slot is gravy.
Zach Plesac - The injured college pitcher....see Vinnie Pestano. I think that is a good comp for Plesac and his results at the end of this season, after missing one entire pro season (half last year, half this year) with injury validate that comp...at least so far. Good pick that might turn into a great one.
Gavin Collins - You hope to be able to turn one good tool into something more with college guys you draft this late. So far Collins, also slowed by injury in the first year of his pro career, looks like a good pick at #13.
Mitch Longo - I cannot tell you how many MAC or even Ohio State guys we have selected in late rounds who were not very good over the years. Longo looked like just an organizational guy but, after missing a lot of the season with injury he finished the season strong at both Lake County and Lynchburg. I mean, this guy was SMOKIN' hot even through the abbreviated Carolina League playoffs. He had the best year of any of the 2016 hitters we drafted. This vaults him up to at least suspect if not low level prospect.
Ben Krauth - The typical college strike-throwing reliever drafted by the Indians in lower rounds, Krauth has had low minors success so, at this point, he is a very good pick. We will see if we get anything out of him but, as a LHP, there is always hope.
Dakody Clemmer/Skyler Arias - These guys get incompletes as their drug suspensions don't give us anything to analyze.
Trenton Brooks, Raymond Burgos, Michael Leftkewicz, Jonathan Laureano, Tanner Tully and Jamal Rutledge all look like organizational guys. Except for Laureano (who they still see with long term projection) and Tully (who established his minor league Josh Tomlin-like worth this year), I could see all of these guys being gone by the end of spring training next year.
Ryder Ryan - Again, he is already a success because he was used to get Jay Bruce. The Indians guessed right that Ryan's velocity could be harnessed with repeated reps in the pros, making him an attractive target for the Mets in that trade.
Saturday, September 30, 2017
Predict the ALDS roster
OK, the best AL record is clinched, the overall best record is lost and we have one game to play tomorrow.
Time to predict the Indians' ALDS roster. Now, I know there are geniuses in the Indians' management team who will look at all the analytics once we know who we are playing and make the appropriate decision based on historical tendencies, park averages, etc. But, putting that detailed analysis aside for the moment, here are my off-the-top-of-the-head thoughts
Starting pitchers (3):
Kluber, Carrasco, Bauer.
Relievers (9)
Clevinger, Salazar, Otero, McAllister, Joe Smith, Tyler Olsen, Bryan Shaw, Andrew Miller, Cody Allen
Catchers (2)
Gomes, Perez
Infielders (7)
Santana, Encarnacion, Lindor, Ramirez, Urshela, Gonzalez, Diaz
Outfielders (4)
Jackson, Brantley, Bruce, Kipnis
Notables Left off (6)
Tomlin, Chisenhall, Almonte, Guyer, Greg Allen, Goody
Rationale
Starters: Going with 3 starters means only one of them will have to go on short rest. That would be Kluber in Game 4, if necessary. And that would be if there weren't any postponements. Tomlin helped out last year in a tight spot but, in hindsight, it was a move of desperation. Tomlin just doesn't have the stuff to pitch in the post-season.
Bullpen: Tito likes to go with veterans. That's the only reason I picked McAllister over Goody. Otero is a clear choice as he was effective all season, is a groundball guy and was effective last season. I like both Clevinger and Salazar on the roster as they offer flexibility of starting or relieving.
Infielders/Outfielders - First, Gonzalez can play the OF if necessary and Santana and Diaz have played there. Keeping Brantley is a gamble but it gives us a chance to give him an at bat here or there. Jackson can play CF in a pinch, as well. It might seem strange to leave off Chisenhall but we are leaving off the September Chisenhall, not the April-June Chisenhall. An unpopular pick might be leaving off Greg Allen but he is a rookie and had never played past AA, where he had a shortened season due to a broken hand. Guyer is obviously hurt. The big surprise here is Brantley. But I think about Game 7 in the WS last year and I would want an injured Michael Brantley up at the plate in the 10th rather than a healthy Michael Martinez.
Catchers: No brainer here. I think the Indians thought that maybe they would keep 3 catchers if Mejia could bring some pop off the bench and being a guy the Yankees/Twins and Astros/Red Sox haven't seen yet. But Mejia, like Greg Allen, is too inexperienced.
So, there you have it. It's just my take. Probably won't happen.
Now, let's go out tomorrow and play the rookies and get Brantley and AB or two. Nothing left tomorrow but to keep guys or get guys healthy for the post-season.
Time to predict the Indians' ALDS roster. Now, I know there are geniuses in the Indians' management team who will look at all the analytics once we know who we are playing and make the appropriate decision based on historical tendencies, park averages, etc. But, putting that detailed analysis aside for the moment, here are my off-the-top-of-the-head thoughts
Starting pitchers (3):
Kluber, Carrasco, Bauer.
Relievers (9)
Clevinger, Salazar, Otero, McAllister, Joe Smith, Tyler Olsen, Bryan Shaw, Andrew Miller, Cody Allen
Catchers (2)
Gomes, Perez
Infielders (7)
Santana, Encarnacion, Lindor, Ramirez, Urshela, Gonzalez, Diaz
Outfielders (4)
Jackson, Brantley, Bruce, Kipnis
Notables Left off (6)
Tomlin, Chisenhall, Almonte, Guyer, Greg Allen, Goody
Rationale
Starters: Going with 3 starters means only one of them will have to go on short rest. That would be Kluber in Game 4, if necessary. And that would be if there weren't any postponements. Tomlin helped out last year in a tight spot but, in hindsight, it was a move of desperation. Tomlin just doesn't have the stuff to pitch in the post-season.
Bullpen: Tito likes to go with veterans. That's the only reason I picked McAllister over Goody. Otero is a clear choice as he was effective all season, is a groundball guy and was effective last season. I like both Clevinger and Salazar on the roster as they offer flexibility of starting or relieving.
Infielders/Outfielders - First, Gonzalez can play the OF if necessary and Santana and Diaz have played there. Keeping Brantley is a gamble but it gives us a chance to give him an at bat here or there. Jackson can play CF in a pinch, as well. It might seem strange to leave off Chisenhall but we are leaving off the September Chisenhall, not the April-June Chisenhall. An unpopular pick might be leaving off Greg Allen but he is a rookie and had never played past AA, where he had a shortened season due to a broken hand. Guyer is obviously hurt. The big surprise here is Brantley. But I think about Game 7 in the WS last year and I would want an injured Michael Brantley up at the plate in the 10th rather than a healthy Michael Martinez.
Catchers: No brainer here. I think the Indians thought that maybe they would keep 3 catchers if Mejia could bring some pop off the bench and being a guy the Yankees/Twins and Astros/Red Sox haven't seen yet. But Mejia, like Greg Allen, is too inexperienced.
So, there you have it. It's just my take. Probably won't happen.
Now, let's go out tomorrow and play the rookies and get Brantley and AB or two. Nothing left tomorrow but to keep guys or get guys healthy for the post-season.
It's hard to believe but the last two games of the regular season may be the most interesting of the year so far.
How, you ask? When the Indians have just clinched home field advantage for the playoffs AND guaranteed themselves, for better or for worse, playing the wildcard game winner in the ALDS.
How, you ask? When the Dodgers' magic number for clinching the best record in baseball is just 1 as they hold the tiebreaker over the Indians.
For the Indians, however, there is a lot left to do.
1. They want to give guys some rest, for sure. But...
2. They want to drive Corey Kluber through the finish line to his second Cy Young award and make his life easier in his last regular season start this year.
3. They want to do whatever they have to do to get the guys ready who they have identified as being on their post-season roster or give guys one last chance who are still on the bubble or whom may not be on the ALDS roster but are in consideration for including on the ALCS and/or WS rosters if the Indians make it that far.
4. Plus, there are the wildcards: Brantley, Guyer and, even Zimmer. Fortunately, sending Morimando home and not bringing up Plutko, AND having all the other guys on the 40-man, I think, already getting ABs/IP this season AND us not doing any reward callups means we don't need to worry about getting guys appearances. The only thing that might make Tito play guys is if, like Carrasco and 200 innings, records are in play for some of the starters.
5. Finally, there is the school of thought that it doesn't make any sense to give guys rest at this point when they will have 3 days of rest starting Monday. The only consideration is not getting guys hurt so we don't have any more Zimmers this season. So maybe you see the same lineup and just get the reserves in earlier and use more relievers than you would need to, just like he did last night.
So, how does Tito play it the last two games? It might be different than you or I would do it and than other managers in his situation would or are doing it. However, as I have said before, I trust in Tito...but tonight and Sunday still should be pretty darn interesting.
How, you ask? When the Dodgers' magic number for clinching the best record in baseball is just 1 as they hold the tiebreaker over the Indians.
For the Indians, however, there is a lot left to do.
1. They want to give guys some rest, for sure. But...
2. They want to drive Corey Kluber through the finish line to his second Cy Young award and make his life easier in his last regular season start this year.
3. They want to do whatever they have to do to get the guys ready who they have identified as being on their post-season roster or give guys one last chance who are still on the bubble or whom may not be on the ALDS roster but are in consideration for including on the ALCS and/or WS rosters if the Indians make it that far.
4. Plus, there are the wildcards: Brantley, Guyer and, even Zimmer. Fortunately, sending Morimando home and not bringing up Plutko, AND having all the other guys on the 40-man, I think, already getting ABs/IP this season AND us not doing any reward callups means we don't need to worry about getting guys appearances. The only thing that might make Tito play guys is if, like Carrasco and 200 innings, records are in play for some of the starters.
5. Finally, there is the school of thought that it doesn't make any sense to give guys rest at this point when they will have 3 days of rest starting Monday. The only consideration is not getting guys hurt so we don't have any more Zimmers this season. So maybe you see the same lineup and just get the reserves in earlier and use more relievers than you would need to, just like he did last night.
So, how does Tito play it the last two games? It might be different than you or I would do it and than other managers in his situation would or are doing it. However, as I have said before, I trust in Tito...but tonight and Sunday still should be pretty darn interesting.
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