Monday, October 2, 2017

2016 Draft - a look back

My initial impressions of the 2016 draft was that the Indians managed their money well and got some upside in terms of HS players and some low-ceiling but low floor college pitches in the first 10 rounds and some below the radar college players who fell to them in the rounds past round 10.   To do this they sacrificed a bit and picked some college seniors who in the first 10 rounds who were obviously cheap.

We are now about a year and a half away from that draft and I wanted to revisit it to see how that draft looks now.

Bottom line: The draft still looks good although, at this point, I have to give it a "B" as their top picks are still developing.   But as I said previously, this draft hinges on Benson and Jones.   If they both tank this draft is pretty weak.  If they both succeed and some of the other draftees listed below just continue on their current development path, this draft is a real strong one.  We have already used two of these picks to help the Indians win this year so, in that sense, this draft already has a leg up as being a good draft.

Let's look at this draft pick-by-pick:

Will Benson - He still has some big question marks in terms of his hit tool.  At times he looked like he could turn on a good fastball and at times his swing looked too long.   He shows speed and power and was tapping into that power more as this season drew to an end.   He could be ready for a breakout year next year at low A ball.   In any case, his eventual upside or lack thereof might not be determined for another couple of years.   One thing is clear so far: he is not exceeding expectations and, for me, is a little underwhelming at this point.

Nolan Jones - He was deemed as one of the best HS hitters in the 2016 draft class.   So far he has lived up to that with a good batting eye and a good hit tool.  Still, he has virtually no power which will not play well at 3B and his defense is still shaky.  Jones has proven to me that, barring injury, he will play in the majors.   The question is at what performance level.  Another guy who has not overwhelmed so far.

Logan Ice - To me, he is an overdraft.   The Indians stacked the deck for him as far as having a successful first full season.  Whereas many college juniors start their first full season in high A ball, Ice started and finished his season in LOW A Lake County.   Even with that advantage Ice barely hit.   He was a catch first guy in his first two years in college and hit some his 3rd year.  However, that year now looks like a mirage.   Still, the Indians do have a recent track record of developing hitting ability in defense first catchers so there is still some hope.   However, Ice's development pathway has really slowed down and won't accelerate until he shows he can mash professional pitching in the low minors.

Aaron Civale/Shane Beiber - These two guys have been as advertised: strike-throwing advanced pitchers.  However, using Adam Plutko as the yardstick for these types of pitchers, you can see how these guys can fade away if they don't go all Greg Maddux on their opponents.  These guys look great so far but it is too early to tell if their stuff plays at AAA and in the majors. 

Connor Capel - Low A ball success is not a good predictor of future success but Capel handled his assignment at Lake County fairly well.   Again, by 'fairly' I mean that he didn't dominate AND he wasn't dominated, even though he was youngish for this league.  His power-speed comination and the fact he showed some plate discipline while batting against pitchers more experienced than him is very promising.   Right now the jury is still out on his long term projection but centerfielders who hit 20+ HRs, even in the low minors, have to be given some respect. 

Ulysses Cantu - He was hurt last year and so started slowly and started fast this year.  I thought he looked great and that the Indians found a bargain.   However, he tailed off at the end of the season and didn't show as much power as I would have liked to see.  The jury is still out on him but I think his development path may be getting very long at this point.

Michael Tinsley - He gets an incomplete.  Next year, if he is healthy, we will get a better feel for what we have in thim

Andrew Lantrip - See Tinsley

Hosea Nelson - A toolsy guy, he was a stretch at #9 but I understand the gamble.   Take a speedy, under the radar guy who will sign for slot or a little below.

Samad Taylor - He is already a success for the Indians as he was used to help get Joe Smith.   So, from a draft perspective, this was an excellent pick on that alone.  I think his upside is really good and, as I have said a couple of times, we will rue the Joe Smith trade down the road unless he is a big contributor this post-season.

Andrew Calica - He is as advertised.  Good hit tool.  Average to below average everything else.   For an 11th round pick he is a good one because, frankly, anything you get from an 11th round pick who signed for near slot is gravy.

Zach Plesac - The injured college pitcher....see Vinnie Pestano.  I think that is a good comp for Plesac and his results at the end of this season, after missing one entire pro season (half last year, half this year) with injury validate that comp...at least so far.   Good pick that might turn into a great one.

Gavin Collins - You hope to be able to turn one good tool into something more with college guys you draft this late.  So far Collins, also slowed by injury in the first year of his pro career, looks like a good pick at #13.

Mitch Longo - I cannot tell you how many MAC or even Ohio State guys we have selected in late rounds who were not very good over the years.   Longo looked like just an organizational guy but, after missing a lot of the season with injury he finished the season strong at both Lake County and Lynchburg.  I mean, this guy was SMOKIN' hot even through the abbreviated Carolina League playoffs.   He had the best year of any of the 2016 hitters we drafted.   This vaults him up to at least suspect if not low level prospect. 

Ben Krauth - The typical college strike-throwing reliever drafted by the Indians in lower rounds, Krauth has had low minors success so, at this point, he is a very good pick.   We will see if we get anything out of him but, as a LHP, there is always hope.

Dakody Clemmer/Skyler Arias - These guys get incompletes as their drug suspensions don't give us anything to analyze.

Trenton Brooks, Raymond Burgos, Michael Leftkewicz, Jonathan Laureano, Tanner Tully and Jamal Rutledge all look like organizational guys.   Except for Laureano (who they still see with long term projection) and Tully (who established his minor league Josh Tomlin-like worth this year), I could see all of these guys being gone by the end of spring training next year.

Ryder Ryan - Again, he is already a success because he was used to get Jay Bruce.   The Indians guessed right that Ryan's velocity could be harnessed with repeated reps in the pros, making him an attractive target for the Mets in that trade.

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