Wednesday, October 4, 2017

Thoughts on the tentative ALDS roster

First, I put my trust in Tito.   What he says goes.   His only managerial mistakes in the past has been to let his locker room get away from him when he was in Boston.  Or at least that is my perception of his managerial mistakes.   He brought genius out of necessity last year in his use of his bullpen.   I trust him to do the same this year.

Now, let's take a look at what he is proposing:

Starters:  I totally disagree with his rotation.   Carrasco and Kluber should pitch 4 of the 5 games in the ALDS with one of them (Kluber in game 4) being on short rest.    That being said, I trust the analytics and Tito's starters.   I also disagree with the use of Tomlin in Game 4 but I don't believe that will actually happen.  So, again, I defer to Francona.

Bullpen:  If we are really honest, there was no need for McAllister on this roster.   A check from last year shows that he was only used in mop-up roles in the post-season.   If that is as far as your trust goes on a guy, then I don't see any need for him on the post-season roster.   Plus, if you look closely down the stretch this year, he wasn't that effective when brought into high leverage situations.  I already covered Goody in my earlier post.   I just don't see Tito having the confidence to use him in meaningful situations in the post-season.   The only decision I do not agree with is Otero.  He is an extreme groundball pitcher and could be useful in certain high-leverage situations.   That being said, I trust in Tito that including Salazar is much more of a plus than losing Otero is a minus.  He could have done the easy thing but he didn't.  And I commend him for that and hope it all works out.   If it doesn't it was still a great and novel idea.

As far as his use of Clevinger and Salazar (and maybe Tomlin) in unique ways, I am on-board.  The only issue is that these guys weren't in these roles this year much, if at all, so there is the unknown of how they will respond.  I still remember the Joaquin Andujar meltdown for the Cardinals some years back when things didn't go well for him after being brought in in a new role for him in the 7th game of the world series.  That being said, I love the flexibility this gives the Indians in limiting the innings of Miller, Shaw and Allen to keep them somewhat fresh for their late inning assignments.

I wanted to comment on Tyler Olson.   He has responded to almost every challenge this year.   At first I thought having Clevinger and Salazar use as dynamic (multiple roles and a variety of lengths of outings) relievers might make it hard to get in a situational guy like Olson.   After thinking about it, however, I think this only limits Olson a little.  By that I mean you wouldn't want him coming in to replace Clevinger after Clevinger has faced one batter.  That would be against what I believe is the dynamic reliever idea.  But in thinking about it I can see various situations (e.g., replacing a starter in a jam when a tough left-handed batter is up or having Shaw go 1/3 of an inning, Olson 1/3 of an inning and Allen an inning and a third at the end of game) where Olson can be use effectively.  I think Francona even did that at least once down the stretch.

I still am unconvinced about Joe Smith but I now get my wish for him to prove what it cost us to get him.   Let's hope he succeeds as we gave away more for him than we realize right now (compare what we gave away to get Jay Bruce just 9 days later).  I can see the need for him as a situational righty who can also get some left-handed batters out and I hope it works out.   Again, I trust Francona.

As far as the position players, I think we can sum it up by saying that Francona knows what he wants to do in the post-season and he is going to do it.  The only thing he has not protected himself from with this roster is injuries.   I think he is more susceptible to those if, say Kipnis or Urshela go down.  He trusts in his veterans and assumes that they will strap 'em up and step up to the task in the post-season, even if they have significant rust on them.  The only real surprises are no Yandy Diaz and the inclusion of Greg Allen and Erik Gonzalez on the roster.   It is obvious how much Francona favors defense in the post-season and the fact that Diaz is a rookie of questionable offensive upside made more questionable by this being his first post-season.   If Greg Allen gets even one AB in the post-season it is probably not a good thing for the Indians but he could steal us a run here or there as a pinch runner and defensive replacement.   This is far from the first time a team has used a speedy, defense-only guy as the 25th man.   Let's just hope we don't get into a Michael Martinez situation.  However, even is we do, I actually have more faith in Greg Allen than in Martinez as Allen is an unknown who might sneak something in on our opponent.   I mean, it wasn't until David Justice came to play here that we found out that he hits lefties really well, especially lefties like Jim Poole.  Imagine how much of a secret weapon Allen might be with many less reps to get a handle on him.

So there you have it.  Will Terry Francona break new ground with his dynamic reliever approach with Salazar and Clevinger?  Will he be the first manager in recent (if ever) post-season history to intentionally go into a post-season with the idea of using tandem starters (hint!), maybe even three of them in the same game?  Will the Indians win this post-season with this roster or will Francona be second-guessed through the next generation of Indians fans?   Time will tell.

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