Minor League Rule 5 Draft Day Post

 OK, baseball fans.   Today's the big day>  It's...drum roll please...the Minor League Rule 5 Draft (crowd goes wild).  The first draft for the Cleveland Guardians!!!

UPDATE: 2021 RULE 5 MINOR LEAGUE DRAFT RESULTS AND ANALYSIS:

Total players selected: 50 (most in at least the last 10 years)

Guardians players lost: RHP Dakody Clemmer, AA Reliever (Nationals)

Guardians players gained:  Erik Sabrowski, LHP (taken from Padres); Brett Daniels, RHP (Astros)

Instant Analysis:  The Indians lost an intriguing RHP in Dakody Clemmer who was developing slowly into a ML relief prospect.   They got back 2 pitchers.  Erk Sabrowski and Brett Daniels.   Clemmer was drafted in 2016 and so this was his 3rd Rule 5 draft and after 2022, will be able to be a 6-year free agent.  Sabrowski and Daniels, on the other hand, were both drafted in 2018, meaning this was their first Rule 5 draft and won't be eligible for minor league free agency until after the 2024 season.  While I love Clemmer we have a lot of minor league relievers like him.   Looking back over the years I would rate Clemmer as one of the best players we have lost in the minor league Rule 5 in the last 10 years.

Both Sabrowski and Daniels strike out more than a batter an inning and each have, in their own way, some upside which can more adequately be developed if they stay in the organization through their entire first 6+ years.  

The drafting of 50 players in this draft is not surprising to me as, just like in the ML Rule 5 draft, there was a surplus of prospects whose advancement was hindered by no 2020 season.   I am not exactly sure how the reduction in teams in the minors this year impacted this draft but my kneejerk feeling is that it had no impact as teams only would have cut players who would not have been drafted in this draft.  One way the reduction in teams may have helped there be more players drafted this year is that the reduction in teams forced organizations (including the Indians) to push their prospects up to higher levels which may have given other organizations a better idea of how players projected.

The good news for the Indians is that guys like Marcos Gonzalez who might have been on the bubble for making the Columbus protected list, must have been protected.  The Indians had a lot of exposure here with the backup of prospects in their system so I think it is a really good thing they only lost one player, especially since they left two spots open on their Columbus reserve list instead of protecting 2 more prospects.  The fact that the draft went to the 5th round also could have resulted in more Indians prospects being rafted but that didn't happen.  

BACKGROUND

As the draft gets started lets look at some stats.  In the last 10 minor league Rule 5 draft we have:

2020 - 43 players drafted  = Indians lost 0, Indians picked up 1

2019 - 42 players selected - Indians lost 3, Indians picked up 2 

2018 - 42 players selected - Indians lost 3, Indians picked up 2

2017 - 43 players selected - Indians lost 2, Indians picked up 1

2016 - 39 players selected - Indians lost 3, Indians picked up 0

2015 - 49 players selected (AAA & AA phases) - Indians lost 2 - Indians picked up 1

2014 - 30 players selected (AAA&AA phases) - Indians lost 0, Indians picked up 1

2013 - 36 players selected (AAA&AA phases) - Indians lost 0, Indians picked up 0

2012 - 27 players selected (AAA&AA phases) - Indians lost 0, Indians picked up 0

2011 - 25 players selected (AAA&AA phases) - Intins lost 2, Indians picked up 0

Over the 10 years here are the players gained and lost by the Indians:

GAINED:  Chris Roller, Daniel Young, Jhon Peluffo, Wilson Garcia, Yapson Gomez, Robert Orlan, Rian Moran, Delvy Francisco

LOST: Wilbis Santiago, Jose Colina, Christopher Cespedes, Matt Esparza, Hector Figueroa, Anthony Miller, Junior Soto, Ivan Castillo, Josh Fitzgerald, Trevor Frank, Grant Sides, Nick Maronde, Marty Popham, Donnie Webb

As you can see, the guys we picked had essentially no impact on our ML team and the guys we lost, many of who are stll n the majors, have had minor impacts, at best, in the majors so far.  

Yet, in summary, it looks like we gave up more than we got back which is, frankly, a sign of minor league depth more than "missing" on some guy who went on to be a star.

OK,  will update this post at completion of the draft.

Minor League Rule 5 Draft

Work stoppages really make it hard to find anything to write about.  The one advantage that MLB has given us is that all things minor league will continue.   Thus, although there will not be a major league rule 5 draft tomorrow, the AAA phase wlll go on as scheduled.  Here is a quick reference guide to this draft:

• Teams can protect up to 38 players on their AAA roster that are not already on their major league 40-man roster  
• All other minor leaguers who are Rule 5 eligible in a team's minor league system can be drafted away from a team.   
• Drafted players are lost for good and, I think, at a cost of about $15,000.
• Very few major leaguers come out of the minor league portion.  These are normally just organizational players.  

So, the key to this draft is to use your 38 players wisely.  Looking at the Guardians minor leaguers who would be eligible for this draft, here is a list of guys I would protect:

1. Robert Broom

2. Justin Garza

3. Shane McCarthy

4. Sergio Morillo

5. Juan Mota

6. Aaron Pinto

7. Thomas Ponticelli

8. Jerson Ramirez

9. Joey Cantillo

10. Kirk McCarty

11. Adam Scott

12. Tanner Tully

13. Matt Turner

14. Gavin Collins

15. Jonathon Lopez

16. Sandy Leon

17. Andres Melendez

18. Micael Ramirez

19. Mike Rivera

20. Aaron Bracho

21. Jose Fermin

22. Marcos Gonzalez

23.Daniel Aguilar

24. Will Benson

25. Oscar Gonzalez

26. Quentin Holmes

27. Daniel Johnson

28. Alexfri Planez

29. Jonathon Rodriguez

That's 29 guys and doesn't begin to address my ignorance about the prospect status of the 48 remaining prospects eligible for the AAA rule 5 draft, many of whom are Latin minor leaguers in the lower minors.

So, tomorrow will be interesting.   I predict we will have more action in this draft than usual and it may focus more on guys near the top of the minors.

One last point: just like the major league portion of the Rule 5 the rosters are set before all information is in.   Sometimes guys show out right before the draft on their winter league team.   Maybe their organization didn't think much of the guy but then he puts himself on the radar with his wnter league perfromance.   Keep an eye on Daniel Aguilar who is tearing up the Columbian winter league and who the Indians may have overlooked when they put together their 38-man AAA protected list.   If he isn't on that list, there is a large chance he could be drafted tomorrow.

Random Thoughts for a Sunday

(1)  I think the Guardians should be signing more minor league free agents and gathering our minor leaguers not on the 40-man for some off-season work.  I don't know how much money we are saving by this work stoppage but anything we are saving we should be putting back into getting our minor leaguers ready for the 2022 season.  I think the team that does their minor league signings right now and works with their best minor leaguers right now under controlled conditions is the team that will get the biggest bump once the season starts.

As an example I saw a video of Daniel Espino, our stud pitching prospectd,  working out this off-season in Puerto Rico.  He was doing some really stupid-looking box jumps to a really high height.   It looked like a season-ending leg injury waiting to happen.   In looking at this I questioned why our best prospects were doing stupid crap at home when they could have been working out in Arizona under our best strength and conditioning personnel.  

Get after it, Guardians!  Use your time and resources wisely.

(2) Defectons at Ohio State football are becoming worrisome.  You just can't over-recruit like the Buckeyes are.   They have lost two stud quarterbacks.   They have lost one of the best receivers in the country in Jameson Williams.   A team with this many defensive problems should not be focusing one second on training other teams' stud players of the future.   Craig Young and guys like him...I get it.  But don't lose top prospects in the country after they come to your school because you over-recruit the position and guys don't think that have a legitimate path to become starters. 

(Speaking Buckeyes football,  doubt that Olave and Wilson will play in the bowl game.   With what's going on at Ohio State right now I wonder how many other seniors or juniors who think they might go to the draft this year will opt out of this year's bowl game for the Buckeyes.

(4) Isn't it crazy that a young team like the Cavs can be doing this well without their best, coming in to this season, player?  I think they would need Sexton to make a deep run in the playoffs but even without him they could still make the playoffs.  Think they would get a low seed and get bounced early but getting there is the goal for this group in their first year together.

(5) Baker Mayfield is a mess.  The Browns are a mess.   Instead of worrying about how the rest of this season plays out we should be worrying about next season and locking up guys who we want here next year.  

(6) You gotta love Cleveland State basketball but they have Oklahoma State and Duke, both away, the next two games.   I am thinking they go into the Kent State game 6-4 and on a 2-game losing streak.  -One other point about the Vikings and the Mid- Continent.   Experts said at the beginning of the year that Wright State was their competition.   A close look at the teams in their league shows that the team the Vikings should fear the most right now is Oakland.  They have lots of good non-conference wins and close losses so far.   I love watching the Vikings on ESPN+ but in a conference like theirs it only takes one conference tournament loss and, no matter how good your regular season, you could be sitting at home very easily.   It looks like Oakland  is the kind of team that do that to the Vikings.  So beware!

(7) Don't bet against Chris Holtmann turning the OSU basketball team into a national contender this year.   They looked very thin at the beginning of the year but they are looking deeper and deeper each game.  They will have to find much more scoring behind Liddell but more guys are stepping forward who I think can do that.  Holtmann always seems to take teams and get much more out of them then  think he should.   I think, barrring injuries, he should be able to do that this year, too.

Were the Guardians Idiots?

 OK, a lot of the people who follow this stuff were begging for the Indians to protect their top prospects from the Rule 5 draft.   This was a historic year n that the Guardians had so many prospects that needed to be protected.   Some were good prospects who likely will play extensively in the majors in 2022 (Kwan, Morris, Pilkington, Myers).   Some were high level, maybe top 100 in baseball prospects who project to be above average ML starters and are not that far away from the majors but not likely ready by opening day 2022, maybe not even opening day 2023 (Freeman, Valera, Rocchio, Tena, Lavastida).   Some were such good prospects that they had to be protected even though they were YEARS away from being ML-ready (Noel).

In the background was always the looming end of the CBA and the proposed lockout and stoppage of transactions.

Every team had to know this could mean that the Rule 5 draft could be postponed and that postponement might become a cancellaton if the work stoppage dragged on into spring training.

I am pretty safe in predicting that someone, somewhere, will call into question the Guardans thought process on this.

Should they have assumed the Rule 5 draft would be cancelled and not protected these prospects?

Maybe they should have protected less prospects and not had to give away fringe guys like Harold Ramirez, JC Mejia and Scott Moss for nothing?

Monday morning quarterbacks will likely bring up these questions and, for what it's worth, here are my answers:

1. Should the Guardians, knowing the work stoppage was a possibility, protected fewer of these prospects?

Look, your prospects are your prospects.   Most teams have multiple prospects on their roster and even multiple veterans on their roster who would not even make our roster.  Multiple guys.  

Right now the Rule 5 draft is postponed indefnitely.  It might still happen.   The Indians did the exact right thing.  They protected the best players in their system, major and minor leaguers, who needed to be protected.    If it never happens it never happens.   Hopefully under the new CBA they retire this dinosaur instead of keeping it and talking about the handful of players over the years who benefitted from this draft, forgetting totally about the players whose career it almost killed.   Even one of the stars of the 2020 Rule 5 draft, Akil Badoo, was thinking about quitting baseball when, after tanking, he was sent to the minors.  

But the Guardians were right in keeping the prospects on the 40 man roster because this is about protecting the players you would least like to lose and who have the highest likelihood of being picked and never coming back.  

2. Should the Guardians have jumped into the free agent frenzy like so many of their competitors did?

There may be a reason most of the rest of baseball was transaction happy in the weeks leading up to the work stoppage but it escapes me.  The Guardians did exactly what they should have.  Playng the waiting game.  

Look, they will likely have to make trades to clear out some roster space.  I mean, right now they don't have enough pitching or quality outfielders to start next season.  I mean, Mercado in left, Straw in center and Zimmer in right just won't cut it.   A bullpen without replacements for Shaw and Parket just won't cut it.  We don't have a lot of roster fluff to DFA.  The only way to clear spots on this roster is to trade some prospects.  Yes, you could DFA Logan Allen and one or both of Zimmer and Mercado but, after that, the roster is stacked.    Maybe Carlos Vargas as he will run out of options before making it to the majors.  

This may actually work in their favor.   I am thinking that guys like Juan Soto, who the Nationals want to sign long-term, might be more available after the stoppage than they are now since they will move closer to free agency (albeit only slightly) and further away from the time when extensions are normally hammered out.  Plus, maybe the Nationals want to go into a rebuild and they are just waiting to see if there will be a salary floor.   Trading an $8.5 million a year player won't help them get to $100 million in salary, will it?  

3.  Will this lockout mean the Rule 5 will be cancelled altogether?  

Highly unlikely.   The players like the Rule 5 and so my guess is that it stays.  But, it might not happen this year as part of the compromise towards a new CBA.   The players might be able to throw a one year hiatus onto the altar.  Time will tell.

Calling out Max Scherzer

 I know, I know.   Don't kll the messenger.  

But I had to respond to his comments:

"Specifically, frst and foremost, we see a competion problem and how teams are behaving because of certain rules....Adjustments have to be made to bring up the competition.  As players, that's critical to us to have a highly competitive league, and when we don't have that, we have issues."

Let's unravel Mr. Scherzer's words for their true meaning.  We have been down this road with the MLBPA before. Basically they see the problem as this:

While the best players are getting paid, the middle-of-the-road players are not getting paid and, in many cases (See Bryan Shaw) are having to accept low-end free agent contracts or even minor league deals.

Why is this happening? Well, the teams that are not going to be competitive don't feel compelled to sign these lesser free agents.  Why, they are not going to be competitive any way.  Why not save the money for the draft or for international free agents and just go with ML mnimum rookies?  You might even be bad enough to get the first overall pick in the next draft (cough. tank. cough).  

In Mr. Scherzer's mind one of the worst words in the baseball lexicon is R-E-B-U-I-L-D.  My guess is that two of the teams he would like disbanded are the Tampa Bay Rays and the Oakland A's, followed closely thereafter by the Cleveland Indians.  Basically those teams are being successful without going all New York Mets on the free agent market.  

What to do? We MAKE the teams be competitive.  What does that do for the teams?  Nothing.  But what does that do for the players?

1. Competition is created for the upper level free agents (if you are forced to be 'competitive' why not go big?).  The more competition, the more those players get paid.

2. Failing signing the top free agents (as the Marlins and Pirates wlll likely to be) they will be forced to sign, and likely overpay, for players in the next two levels of free agents.   Those players won't make those teams competitive but it will make those middling free agents richer.

How to we force teams into competing:

1. Put in a salary floor that teams have to meet.

2. Disincentivize teams from tanking by putting in a lottery system for the top draft choices

There are probably other measures they want, as well, but you get the point.   Mr. Owner, we are going to make you spend more money so our players get paid.   The Robbie Rays of the world will get paid even if they never have a Cy Young season.  Maybe not as much but they will still get paid.  

The problem is that owners are already paying mediocre talent too much money (see Steve Matz's 4 year $44 million contract with the Cardinals).  But at least Matz had SOME level of performance.   

What the upshot of his proposal is will be that teams like the Guardians will have to pay Bryan Shaw and Blake Parker MILLIONS just so they can say, on paper, that they are "competitive".

That is why I am calling bullshit on Mr. Scherzer.  You don't give a crap about players actually earning their pay.   You want them to get paid even if they are mediocre.  You don't want teams to look at their minor league system and say 'Crap, if that is all I can get for $5 million a year in year in free agency I will just give that job to a rookie who has more potential and is much cheaper.'  

But Mr. Scherzer doesn't want to allow teams to be competitive by doing more with less.   He wants them to pay more and not do any better in the standings, in essence just taking any profits the owners make and giving it back to the players, whether or not they deserve it.

Now,  I can pretty much guarantee you that this isn't the worst union in the world.  But I can say, without a doubt, that this is the most unscrupulous union of millionaires that has ever existed in the world.  In fact if a person's position in the world was based on their worth nstead of their stature within an organization, the members of the MLBPA would have already been indicted for collusion and price fixing.   But since they are 'employees' they can call themselves a union and get away with extorting money.

Mr. Scherzer, you and the consummate ass in this situation.  Take your millions and go, sit down and shut up.  Or, more benificially, find out how to raise the salary of minor leaguers, raise the salary of ML rookies and second year players and remove the awful Rule 5 draft.   Those are worthy causes.  Much more worthy than finding ways to get mediocre and broken down veterans more money than they have been shown over the last 6 years to be worth.

The end.

My screaming into the wind about the CBA

 So, we are approaching the end of the current CBA with the prospective of the lockout if a new CBA is not finalized by Wednesday at 11:59 pm.

So I am going to put my two cents in even you I may be the only one who hears my screaming.

1. Luxury tax ceiling - I am in agreement with the rumors that this should be higher.  I would say a 10% bump would be reasonable.  

2. Increase of teams in the playoffs to 14.  Agan, a great idea as it keeps more teams in contention longer.

3. Lottery for top draft picks - Again, I like this.  Teams shouldn't be incentivized to tank.  It works for the NBA and it would work here.

4. Institution of a universal DH.  Great idea.  

So far so good, right?  OK, let's look at some of the things I don't agree with and how we could fix them.

A. The MLBPA has long wanted a salary floor.   This would mean that teams would be expected to spend a certain amount (say $100 million) on salaries each year.   The result would generally be that teams would have to sign enough free agents and/or pay their existng players enough money to reach this threshold.  My counter proposal is this:

    1. Institute a 'soft' salary floor.  That is, teams must COMMIT $100 million in salary each year.  That would include offers made to players under their control (not free agent offers).   Thus if the Indians offered Shane Bieber $100 million for 5 years that $20 million for 2022 would count towards that $100 million floor.  Beiber does not have to accept that offer but, nevertheless, the Indians have made a good faith offer that, if accepted, would lock them into paying him long-term and lock Bieber into being an Indian for a long time.

    2. Along with #1, I would move the trigger to arbitration to 2 years, eliminating the super 2 category and making arbitration more uniform.  I have long believed that good players like Bieber should be paid early.  I would also eliminate arbitration hearings and replace that whole process with a performance-based salary system for these players that would kick in after their first 2 years.

    3, I would increase the starting salary in the majors to $750,000 a year.  Teams that want to stack their roster with players with less service time would be disincentivized to do so as it would cost them almost $200,000 more per player on their roster to use rookies.   This would also benefit the rookies.

Let me be clear about one thing: the idea of a hard floor is a non-starter.  As I have seen it expressed by agents and the MLBPA, this is just a ploy to get teams to overspend on mediocre free agents who are being left out of the lucrative free agent market.  These players are being left out because they are not good enough for the money they are asking for.   Also, the soft floor might, indeed, cost the best free agents money as they would likely not hit the open market as soon.   But I don't give a crap about that.  This floor should be an incentive for teams to pay their homegrown players earlier and more than they do now.  Making arbitration sooner would prompt that to happen, as well.

Small market teams should use the soft floor to invest in their own players, not to fill the pockets of mediocre free agents or create bidding wars to make the best free agents more highly paid.  

B. As mentioned before on this blog, the Rule 5 draft should be eliminated.  It should be replaced by the following:

    1. Players signed before their 19th birthday would become minor league free agents if not placed on the 40 man roster by the December 1st before their 24th birthday.

    2. Players signed before their 23rd birthday would become minor league free agents if not placed on a 40-man roster before the December 1st before their 25th birthday.

Latino kids would get the full benefit of up to 8 years of development and US college kids would get 3-4 years of development time, appropriate as they are more physically mature and more highly trained.

C. There would no longer be a 4th option year granted for any player.   Eliminating this would allow players to reach minor league free agency sooner (27 for younger players, 28 for older players) even if they were placed on the 40 man roster at the end of the periods described above.

D. Teams losing top free agents should be granted a supplemental pick after the 5th round of the draft plus an addition of $250,000 to their bonus pool above what it should be based on all their draft slots in the first 10 rounds, even if they did not make a qualifying offer.   If they made a qualifying offer they should get both the supplemental pick in the existing agreement AND the supplemental 5th round pick plus the bonus pool bump.  This proposal would not seriously impact the nature of the draft but would give the teams losing quality players to free agency something more to help them work with to rebuild more quickly.    Plus it would be more money in the pool to give to younger players.

E. As part of the lottery process.   All teams that failed to make the playoffs would be allowed to sign draftees in rounds 11-20 for up to $200,000 with it not counting against their bonus pool cap.  This, again, allows the poorer teams compete better by spending more on the draft which, as we all know, if the poor man's way of developing big league talent.  

F. I am for NOT for an international draft.  The international draft cap works fine right now and I would even strengthen the penalties for violating this cap.  

These are just some of my comments.   I honestly feel that the agents and the highly paid players should set the framework for these changes but that the have-not teams should fill in the details.  The goal should still be to level the playing field as much as we can without true tanking going on.

Handicapping the chances of our Rule 5-eligible prospects actually being selected in the Rule 5

 Two things to say before we start this discussion:

1. My ability to predict which Indians' prospects will be selected in the Rule 5 draft, excluding a few, rare no-brainer exceptions), ranges between poor and pathetic so take what you read below with a grain of salt.

2. If the collective bargaining agreement is not agreed upon the word is that all transactions (and the Rule 5 draft would likely qualify as a transaction) would be frozen so the conversation below may become moot at that point.

Here goes:

Oscar Gonzalez - A guy who, at 23, hit 31 HRs between AA and AAA after not having a minor league season in 2020 is way too hard to resist.  Yes he has warts: bad defense, very bad plate discipline.   But he hits and he hits HRs.   Gven that maybe all the teams in baseball this coming year, if there is a baseball season in 2022, could have the DH, I think there is close to 100% chance he gets selected.  Not as the first pick overall because pitching is more valuable than hitting.  But he will at least be a second round pick for a team making two picks (see Pirates, for example, or maybe even the Nationals)

Aaron Bracho - In the face of guys in his international class excelling, he struggled.  I don't know if it was by design to hide him or because that's where he fits, but he played a lot of first base and third base and no shortstop and Bracho will not hit like a first baseman or third baseman if he even makes the majors.  While he is the top prospect by ranking available among Guardian prospects, he is one of the least likely to get selected (10%) and, if he gets selected, one of the least likely to stick with the drafting team.  He is also one of my picks to have a breakout MINOR LEAGUE season in 2022.

Joey Cantillo - He is an interesting case because he is a relatively highly ranked prospect but not really, before his injury this year, even a top 10 prospect in the Indians system.  He doesn't have any high minors experience and missed the whole year this year, essentially.  He might be able to be stashed a couple of months on a 60-day DL based on his recovery from this year's injury but here is a classc example of the team drafting him looking more at his prospect status than his true ability to stick in the majors this year.   20% chance he gets drafted.  As far as sticking, TJ McFarland comes to mind as a comp but that was when LOOGYs were a thing which went away with the 3 batter minimum.

Juan Mota - I would say 50% chance he gets drafted.   Although he is the real-life wild thing he pitched extensively in AAA and can get it up there at 100 mph.  He is the perfect Rule 5 lottery ticket and I can see any number of rebuilding teams taking a shot at him.  If Luis Oviedo can last a whole year I am thinking Mota can.

Jerson Ramirez - 10% chance.  He is still too far down in the minors to see if his stuff will even play in the majors.

Aaron Pinto - Based on his AFL numbers, no chance he gets drafted.

Adam Scott - 50%.  Being left-handed and given that so many teams are using openers, some for most of their rotation,  I see him as a great opener or innings-eating garbage time reliever for a rebuilding team.  He pitched just enough in 2021 to make teams forget he was injured most of the year and to keep teams from finding warts in his game that might cause them to avoid him come Rule 5 draft tme.

Matt Turner - Too young, very bad in the AFL.  0% chance he gets drafted.

Andres Melendez - 5% chance he gets drafted.   He is an intriguing prospect but too far down the minors for a team to keep him even as a 3rd catcher.

Jose Fermin - In a vacuum I might say that this versatile, hustling infielder with a ridiculoowly low strikeout rate might get selected.  But you have to realize, as good as he looks to us, there a likely to be dozens of more intriguing middle infielders with better power, better speed, etc. than Fermin has.   While he looks good to us I don't see him standing out to other teams.  25% chance of getting drafted.

Marcos Gonzalez - Hidden away at AA the same way Bracho was hidden away at high A, I don't think Gonzalez gets drafted but, along with Bracho, he is one of my breakout prospects in the minor leagues for the Indians next year.  15% chance he gets drafted,

Will Benson - 5% chance he gets drafted.   He has too many holes in his game and the projection on him is still 2 more solid minor league seasons until he can contribute in the majors.   I don't see any team drafting him as they know he will be a 5th wheel next year and they might have to run out of options on him before he is ready to stick in the majors.  

Alexfri Planez - In a normal Rule 5 some team might take a chance on him.  However, every team was in the same boat as the Guardians with prospects whose development was stunted due to the lack of the 2020 minor league season.   So, instead of becoming an intrguing prospect some team takes a lottery-ticket try with, he is just another intriguing prospect too far away from the majors to waste $100,000 on..  15% chance of getting drafted but another of my picks to break out (maybe a Valera-like breakout) in 2022.

Jonathon Rodriguez - He was young for his draft class and teams will pass on him because he is so young and so far away from the majors, even if he lasts the season with his drafting team.  Anthony Santander was a better prospect and look how long it REALLY took him to settle in.   15% chance gets drafted.

Justin Garza - Yes, he will be eligible.   But why would a team select him when they could have had him for essentially nothing on the waiver wire?

Daniel Johnson - Ditto to Garza.

There are always guys who are drafted who are head scratchers at the time (TJ McFarland comes to mind.  Who would have ever thought he was going to stick that year with the Orioles or have the career that he has had.  So someone else on our list might get drafted.   Even Sandy Leon is eligible, for what that's worth.  

It will be interesting but, if we lost two who didn't come back last year (Tom and Oviedo), expect to lose at least 2 (100% chance) and maybe 3 (50% chance), 4 (25% chance) or 5(10% chance) this year.

Recapping the DFA'd players and the impact and implications going forward

 The Indians added 10 prospects to their roster this month and also DFA'd 10 players who were on the roster before these additions.  Let's talk about the loss of those players, the impact on the roster and the implications for the upcoming Rule 5 draft if, indeed, that really happens.  

1. Players DFA'd

Nick Wittgren - This was not Wittgren's best season and, in anticipation of having to pay him in arbitration, the Indians decided to DFA him.   He became a free agent and is currently looking for employment.   Clearly Wittgren's innings will have to be replaced.   While he didn't always perform well this year, the innings he pitched were important and not just garbage, mop-up innings so they have to be replaced by someone who is effective.   That would imply a veteran.  

Francisco Perez - He did not impact this year's team at all.  His innings, the few he had, were garbage innings for the most part.  The hope is that he would have had a larger role in 2022 but that won't happen, at least not with the Guardians.  Being a former starter he could have given us multiple innings both as an opener and as a bridge reliever.   We will need to find a person to fill that role.  As it would not be a high leverage role we could fill it with someone from the minors but I don't see that person presenting himself right now.  We'll see, but I hope we don't try to fill this role with a veteran from outside the organization.  It won't be worth the dollars or the roster spot. 

J.C. Mejia - I saw him as a 5th-8th inning guy this year.  Clearly his 2021 season wasn't what it could have been and I think the Indians lost faith that he could finetune things to be effective.  I disagree but the bottom line is that his role will have to be filled, likely from outside the organization.  The only silver lining here is that his trade may bring back a low level prospect if he performs well for his new team.

Cam Hill - Hill's injury and really his ceiling as a 6th inning, garbage time reliever is easily replaced.  This is not a bg loss as it stands right now.

Scott Moss - Like Mejia, you always hate to lose guys who have not reached their potential or exposed themselves as being easily replaceable assets.   You would like those guys to be stashed at AAA so if their performance or health has an epiphany, your team is the one that will collect on that.  Since he didn't provide anything n 2021 his loss, on paper, should not impact 2022.  On paper!

Harold Ramirez - Like Wittgren, he had his moments.   The issue is we have a number of prospects who likely can take his playing time and be at least as effective.   If his loss is really a probblem, this team is in bigger trouble in the outfield than I think.

Justin Garza - What happened to Garza (no waiver claim, being outrighted to the minors) is what I hoped would happen to Moss and Mejia...and Perez.  In that light, I think Garza may be able to pick up the multiple, bridge/garbage innings next year.   However, if he does he will bump someone else off the roster and I would rather see a veteran upgrade with Garza being at AAA as insurance.

Alex Young - A midseason pickup I did not understand, Young was outrighted to the minors.   If he chooses to stay with the Guardians he will add just what he added this year, an emergency presence who can be DFA'd again without having to lose a higher value prospect.

Kyle Nelson - Interesting that he was actually claimed on waivers.   His 2021 was forgettable in the majors and the minors and he never seemed like a dominant prospect.   Rather, he seemed to be an overachiever whose overachievement seemed to run out this year.   He is a lefty and has had some minor league success but is exactly the kind of guy you take off your roster when you have a need.

Daniel Johnson - Johnson has gotten plenty of chances and hasn't improved.   He is exactly the kind of guy you want at AAA, someone who still has the chance to have an epiphany and is young enough for that to vault him into a starter-level player.   Unless he does, however, there will always be an up-and-coming tweener (cough! Steven Kwan.  cough!) who will be the nice, new, shiny, piece who will get the first crack.   Even at that, excellent performance at AAA might not be enough to get him another major league shot as AAAA players look good at AAA as they get older.  

Analysis - All-in-all, the Indians lost some valuable AAA, homegrown depth and a couple of guys, Wittgren and Ramirez, who are easily replaceable.  If we can get it done, guys like Bryan Shaw and Blake Parker can be had on minor league deals.   Knowing that our bullpen is, on paper, really short right now, I would like to see us sign about four more guys that caliber instead of the other minor league vetrerans we signed last year. 

Impact on the Rule 5 draft - The main guy impacted by all this is Joey Cantillo.  If Kyle Nelson gets a major league deal it likely means Cantillo could be at much higher risk of getting selected in the Rule 5 as teams obviously have roster space for guys like Nelson and Moss and even Perez.  Cantillo is, in my opinion, a better prospect with more long-term upside so teams may choose to take a chance on him if major league roster space exists for guys who are much more like fringe prospects.

Random thoughts for a Tuesday

 Do you realize that Yainer Diaz, whose stock actually went UP significantly after he was traded, was not protected by the Astros and is eligible for the Rule 5 draft?  He wouldn't have made the cut here, either, but according to mlb.com he is the Astros #13 prospect.   More on this stuff later when I do a complete analysis of all the players eligible for the Rule 5 draft.

From Baker Mayfield:  'Hey, you people in the stands.   Could you shut up, please.   I am trying to work here!"

I saw a retweet of a Myles Straw tweet saying he now on Cameo and inviting fans to connect with him for "shoutouts, birthdays, holidays, even some baseball advice if you want.  Hit me up and let's have some fun with this"  Cameo is a subscription service where, for a fee, you can connect with celebrities.   Now I like to give people the benefit of the doubt but I hope that Mr. Straw is not trying to make a little extra coin by getting fans to pay for the right to interact with him.   

Clint Frazier was placed on release waivers today by the Yankees. Remember that we traded Frazier, Justus Sheffeld, JP Feyereisen and Ben Heller for Andrew Miller.   I was pretty confident we would rue that trade down the road after Miller was gone.   Not so much.   Probably the best player out of that trade so far was JP Feyereisen and he is a middle reliever/setup man.  Go figure!

Early betting lines for the Browns-Raven game on Sunday:

Over: Ravens

Under: Browns

Spread: The difference between how good Baker Mayfield's wife thinks he is and how good he really is.

Stefanski's first statement in the post-game press conference after a 56-7 pounding - "I know this looked bad but we will fix this."

The Cavs had just enough to make noise in the NBA this year.  But the loss of Sexson shows that how teams without experienced superstar rosters are just one injury away from not having enough horses to compete.   Don't get me wrong.  I love the direction the Cavs are going.   If they had LeBron I think they could compete for the East this year.   I think they are that close to being an elite team.   It's just a shame that the loss of one player on a team that is very young and needs to stay that way is actually as impactful as it is, especially since Sexson is not a superstar but just a very good player.

  

What's The Future For This Roster?

 Now that we have this roster let's look at the future of this roster, both this year and in the future.

Starting Pitchers:

Shane Beiber

Aaron Civale

Zach Plesac

Cal Quantrill

Triston McKenzie

Eli Morgan

Cody Morris

Logan Allen

Konnor Pilkington

Tobias Myers 

Peyton Battenfield (minors)

Logan T. Allen (minors)

Adam Scott (minors, if not taken in Rule 5)

Carlos Vargas (dead roster spot)

Thoughts: The Guardians are a little short in terms of experienced starting pitcher depth.  Morgan and Logan Allen have not shown they can be starters on a championship caliber team but do offer experience in an emergency.   Frankly, I don't know if the Guardians think Myers will fit better as a starter or a bullpen option but he s, on paper, along with Morris, the first options in the minors if the Indians would need an 8th starter.  Realistically, Pilkington,  Morris, Logan T. Allen and Battenfield need a little more seasoning with Morris maybe ending up this year n the bullpen.  A possible addition to the starting depth could be Trevor Stephan but his stuff seems to play better for short stints in the bullpen/arms barn.  While Vargas is on the 40-man roster he is clearly not an option as he missed the last two seasons and has never pitched above rookie ball.

Bullpen

Emmanuel Clase

James Karinchak

Trevo Stephan

Sam Hentges

Anthony Gose

Nick Sandlin

Logan Allen (if not a starter)

Tobias Myers (if not a starter)

Cody Morris (if not a starter)

Thoughts: This unit was very short even before the loss of Francisco Perez and J.C. Mejia (presumably).  Unlike in past years, I don't see any real minor league options for 2022, although some (like Justin Garza did this year) generally put themselves in the major league picture during the year.  The bullpen also lacks ANY veteran presence at all.  NONE.  With all the relievers on the free agent market I think the Guardian will be in the market for at least two and maybe three veteran relievers with some closing experience.  

Catching

Austin Hedges

Bryan Lavastida

Bo Naylor (minors)

Thoughts: This position is even thinner than the bullpen.   Lavastida is not ready and Naylor is a little further behind with the bat although he is probably closer to major league ready defenisvely.  Obvioulsy the Indians will need to sign 2 backup catchers, one for the major league roster and one for insurance on the AAA roster.  My guess is that they will go to spring training with a couple of non-roster invitees or only one if they re-sign Roberto Perez if he will agree to a $2 million dollar deal or so with significant games played incentives.  There are really no minor league options after Naylor as most of our minor league catchers are organizatonal guys.   The one other catching prospect we had, Yainer Diaz, was traded to Houston in the Myles Straw deal.  However, his skill is hitting and I don't know that he would have cracked our top 20 prospects had he not been traded. 

Infield:

First base:  

Bobby Bradley, 

Josh Naylor

Middle infielders: 

Amed Rosario, 

Andres Gimenez, 

Yu Chang, 

Owen Miller, 

Ernie Clement, 

Gabriel Arias, 

Richie Palacios 

Brayan Rocchio (minors), 

Tyler Freeman (minors), 

Jose Tena (dead roster spot)

Jose Fermin (minors, if he survives the Rule 5 draft)

Third basemen

Jose Ramirez

Nolan Jones

Johnkensy Noel (dead roster spot)

Thoughts:  The Guardians are both set up with and plagued with depth here.  They have an unsettled second base situation as well as too much ML ready depth to be supported on the 40-man roster.  In looking for bullpen help some or all of Yu Chang, Owen Miller and Ernie Clement will likely lose their roster spots and have to be DFA'd, if they are not traded.   The middle infielders who were just added to the roster probably all need more minor league seasoning.   The Guardians are set at first base where Bradley will be starting but Naylor's spot on the roster is not set as he is not a good outfielder and s only a passable first baseman.   The best scenario for the Indians is to open the season with Naylor on the 60 day DL to see if he can work himself into playing form that can help the Guardians.   Even before his injury last year he was starting to look like a last guy on the bench sort of player.  Valuable but replaceable.  For third basemen we have Ramirez, any of the middle infielders and Nolan Jones, even though Jones probably still needs half a year at AAA to finish off his development and determine, finally, what his upside is.  Noel and Tena are both dead roster space as they are so far from the majors they won't be helping the Guardians this year or even the first half of 2023.  I still would like to see what it would cost us to get Whit Merrifield and Salvador Perez from Kansas City.  

Outfielders:

Myles Straw

Franmil Reyes (also the primary DH)

Bradley Zimmer

Oscar Mercado

Steven Kwan

George Valera (minors)

Oscar Gonzalez (minors, if he is not picked in the Rule 5 draft, backup DH)

Alexfri Planez (minors, if he is not picked in the Rule 5 draft)

Thoughts: The Indians need help in the outfield.   No way Zimmer and Mercado make it to spring training.  We will need one or both of their roster spots.   We will likely have to trade for or sign a veteran outfielder or two. 

OVERALL SUMMARY:

What the Indians did in adding all these guys to the roster s appropriate.   The problem with this is that we have 13 guys who have never played in the majors meaning we only have 27 guys on our roster who are likely to have a make the opening day 26-man roster meaning the front office has lots of work to do in making trades and/or signing free agents with simultaneously DFAing veterans from the end of the roster.  

Instant Analysis of Cleveland's 40-man roster moves

 Top line analysis:  The Indians did what I felt they had to do: put prospects first.  They protected 10 of their own prospects and one they acquired in a trade (Tobias Myers)

That is historic.  I mean, historic, and I commend the Indians for that.  Historic events call for historic actions.

You can nitpick the details (and I will below) but the overall impact is huge and, in my opinion, the absolute right thing to do.  These guys all have traits of future major league starters and potental all-stars.  This was not the typical Rule 5 class who project as low level major leaguers.

One nit I want to pick.  They traded Junior Caminero for Tobias Myers.   In essence, they DFA'd JC Mejia to make room for Myers.   I hate this deal.   Don't understand how Myers could be worth anything when he hasn't ever even played in the majors.   Let's look at whether Johnson, Garza, Mejia, etc. who they DFA'd today, all of whom look better on paper to me than Myers, brings back ANYTHING, let along a non-Rule 5 eligible talent like Caminero.

More later but this is the best result I could have imagined.

Championship Rosters Are Not Built In November

 I repeat: championship rosters are not built in November, at least not for major league baseball teams.

Here's another quote to think about: historic events sometimes require historic actions.

Taken together, here's what these quotes mean for the Cleveland Guardians management team as it  prepares for the 40 man roster ahead of this year's Rule 5 draft.  

I have been following the Indians/Guardians for my whole life and, as has been documented here and other places, the Guardians NEVER have had this many high quality prospects who are performing very well and are Rule 5 eligible.   NEVER.    Tyler Freeman, George Valera, Brayan Rocchio, Jose Tena, Johnkensy Noel, Richie Palacios, Bryan Lavastida (because he's a catcher who can hit), Oscar Gonzalez, Cody Morris, Konnor Pilkington and Joey Cantillo all need to be protected.   And they all deserve it...in November.  

The Guardians should truly consider, in this historic year, that they should prepare their 40 man roster to protect their best prospects NOT to prepare for the 2022 season.   There is a lot of time between now and February 1st to make deals to clear roster spots for guys who aren't on the roster right now who will be needed on the 26-man roster. in April  Now it NOT that time.   

So, I beg the Guardians management.  It's time to make historic decisions in response to this historic situation.

Protect your prospects this week.   The rest of the winter will take care of itself as you position yourself to fill your 26 man roster for next April.

Free agent analysis: Mark Canha

 A number of analysts are linking Mark Canha to the Cleveland Guradians this off-season.   The Guardians certainly have a need for an outfielder and that is Canha. 

There are really 3 issues I have with signing Canha:

1. Cost: Canha is likely to make $24-28 million over 2 years.  That seems steep for his level of production.

2. Age: Canha will be 33 when the 2022 season starts

3. Production:  Although a darling of some analytics systems, Canha's production (as measured by BA, OPB and SLG), has gone down steadily in the last 3 years.  His OBP was buoyed by an unsustainable 27 HBP in 2021 and if he tries to keep that up injury risks increase.  His Ks went up to a career high in 2021.

I would not sign him to anything more than a Cesar Hernandez-type deal (1 year at $7-8 million). 

In looking at it Bradley Zimmer, if he stays healthy,  offers more position flexibility and not that much worse production than Canha and he is 4 years younger and much cheaper.   Not that I would want Zimmer as my starting OFer but, just sayin'.  Zimmer may have more in the tank than Canha does.

So, all things considered,  I vote no to Mark Canha and I think we should go for a bigger trade to bring n a young outfielder like Juan Soto.   We certainly have the prospects to make that happen.

My latest Soto trade proposal:  

Guardians get: Juan Soto and Dustin Saenz

Nationals get: Tyler Freeman, Daniel Espino, Andres Gimenez, Steven Kwan and Juan Mota

Today begins with good news!

 Oscar Gonzalez was re-signed to a minor league deal, making him electing free agency a procedural move.   He is still eligible for the Rule 5 draft this year but since he is in our minor league system he can be added to the 40-man roster prior to that.   My guess is that we wouldn't have re-signed him so soon if that wasn't the plan.  

On a not-so-good-news but yet good news front, Juan Hillman had TJ surgery in October and so won't pitch next year, meaning the Indians probably didn't cut him so much because they didn't want him.  They may have been doing it as a procedural move to not have him in the minor league organization at the time of the Rule 5 draft.   That way they can sign him later this winter and not have him subject to the Rule 5 or clogging a Columbus roster spot causing the Guardians to leave another prospect unprotected. to the AAA portion of the draft.

Still salty about Francisco Perez, however.

Other good news is MiLB naming their organizational all-stars for the Guardians.   Now, in all fairness, when MiLB or others provide these lists in many cases it is the prospect who played BEST at a particular position, the the best organizational prospects.   So good for Trenton Brooks that he had the best season for a first base prospect in the Indians organization but all that means is that we don't really have any true first base prospects in the organization since Bobby Bradley matriculated to the majors.  

Interestingly, Francisco Perez was selected as the reliever who had the best season in the Guardians' farm system and Oscar Gonzalez was rated as one of the three outfield prospects who performed the best.  As we know I thought both should be rostered.   At least Gonzalez is back in the fold now.  It would look pretty stupid to lose two real prospects for nothing.   All we have lost is one, so far which, for a team like the Indians, is one too many.

40-man roster analysis: Steven Kwan

 As Indians' fans we are always looking for that breakout candidate who can become the next Joe Charboneau,   

Appearing to burst onto the scene this year, Steven Kwan was always on the edge of the radar as a Cleveland Indians' prospect.  To me, he is brothers-of-a-different-mother with Ka'i'i Tom.   

But that's it, really.   An undersized outfielder with little power, little speed and not quite the defensive chops or OBP to be a leadoff-hitter, center field guy.  He might project as a #2 hitter due to his good bat-ball-skills and he might even project to develop a little more power because he is only 23

But, still, unless something drastically changes about his game, and the only thing that could really improve to move that needle is his power, the guy is just and under-sized tweener who doesn't project to be any better than a good 4th outfielder on a good team if he reaches his ceiling.   Could he be more?  Absolutely if something drastically changes.   But, from my experience that is not likely to happen.

In a normal year Steven Kwan would be a guy who I would be begging to protect.   However, knowing all the tweeners I have seen over the years and how little they produced, and all the real prospects we have to protect, I would not roster Kwan and hope for the best.   Given what we saw when Tom was selected in the Rule 5 draft, I think I feel pretty confident that if we lose Kwan this winter, we won't be regretting it 3 years from now.

DECISION: Unless we make a GOOD trade in the next couple of weeks to clear some of our Rule 5-eligible prospects and some of our end-of-roster major leaguers, you don't protect Kwan.

And this week starts with bad news...maybe

 The Guardians did not offer roster spots to either Juan Hillman or Oscar Gonzalez so both are now minor league free agents.   Ditto for Andruw Monasterio, Connor Marabell and others.   

I just don't get it.

Oscar Gonzalez is 23 years old.   He should have been placed on the roster.  He hit 31 HRs between AA and AAA this year. He should have been placed on the roster.  We are in need of outfielders, especially right handed hitting outfielders.   He should have been placed on the roster.

These people are idiots.   They waive Francisco Perez and leave Kyle Nelson and Andrew Young on the roster.  

This is already starting to be a crappy off-season and what's next is not rostering their top prospects like they should and keeping AAAA players on their roster.

There is a small chance that they have agreements in principle to re-sign Gonzalez and Hillman to minor league contracts with invites to major league spring training AFTER the Rule 5 draft, but I doubt it.

But I doubt it.   

There is no excuse, absolutely NO excuse for losing Francisco Perez and losing Oscar Gonzalez.   Just because you have too many good prospects doesn't mean you get to give them away for nothing.   That is just stupid management and I am formally calling out Chernoff and Antonneti as morons.  

You are the freakin' Cleveland Guardians.  You have no money.   You can't buy free agents.  You keep your good prospects.   You don't keep 4A players.  You load your roster up with prospects and hope for the best rather than lose those prospects for nothing.   What is freaking wrong with these guys.

Gonzalez is an intriguing prospect.   Even if he requires another 1/2 season in AAA that is OK.  He is 23 years old.   

What is wrong with these idiots running this team?

Thoughts on this week's moves by the Cleveland Guardians

 1. Picking up Jose Ramirez's 2022 option.  - SMART

2. Not picking up Roberto Perez's 2022 option - SMART

DFAing and outrighting Cam Hill - SMART - No roster spot for him this winter and he was unlikely to be claimed on waivers and then rostered by another team.   As this is his first time being DFA'd and not having enough service time we get to keep him in the minors.   He can become a 6-year minor league free agent if he wants.

DFAing Nick Wittgren -  SMART...IF.   He is arbitration-eligible and he makes way too much money for what he produced this year.  So, in a roster crunch year this is a good move.  He is eligible to become a free agent and not choose to go to the minors.  However, if we lose him, given this year, I think it is worth thegamble that his rebound next year won't be enough to validate the salary he would make in arbitration.    

DFAing Francisco Perez - STUPID - Examining this objectively, Perez with his funky delivery and over-reliance on big breaking pitches, is a candidate to be bombed out of this league once it figures out his schtick.  However, he is a relatively big guy who is only 24 years old who had sick K/IP numbers in the minors (AA/AAA) this year.  He is cheap.   So, I think the Indians have blown this move out of their butts.  If you like the trajectory of Trevor Stephan's career you heard it here first: Perez has that same trajectory.  Putting it another way, I am pretty darn sure that Perez will have better 2022 stats than Justin Garza, Bryan Shaw and Blake Parker and, just from my gut, he has a much better attitude and Logan Allen The Elder and a better chance to be a productive major leaguer than JC Mejia does.  Look who claimed Perez!  The 5th team in order that could have claimed him and a team that has the WORST farm system in baseball.   It show Perez has worth and could have been traded straight up or been a throw-in to make a bigger trade worth.   But to lose him on waivers?  That is just horsecrap.

Random thoughts for a Wednesday - Not just baseball

 First, Mrs. Mayfield, we understand the pain that Baker is playing with and how he is gutting this out.  We all appreciate that.   However, Baker Mayfield is about the 16th best quarterback, talent-wise, when he is healthy and the system he is playing in makes him about the 8th most effective quarterback.  These are not statistical facts, just my opinion.   So, we all appreciate Baker for what he is: a complimentary piece that, if everything else we have clicks, he won't cause us to not make the Super Bowl (double negative intended).  Otherwise, I think you should just sit back and enjoy the money he is making.   It's about to end sooner than you think so I would be making sure I have an effective financial planner.   Odell Beckham's father has it right.   I don't know why but Baker is not getting him the ball and, frankly, it's starting to look like he isn't trying that hard.  Papa Beckham is just saying what we have all thought for a while.   So, there's that.   I think part of the reason for not giving Beckham away is that it will become obvious once he goes somewhere else how bad his connection with Baker was.    One last point here: growing up and watching professional football one thing has been clear to me.   Wide receivers are mostly all pretty damn good.   It's the quarterback who lets the world see how good they are.   This is a prime example of where that doesn't happen and THAT is on the quarterback.

Second, it is amazing to me how nobody respects the Cavaliers.   To me, they are one of the teams in the NBA that I would not want to play in the playoffs or in any one game.   I know their guards are short and they don't really have much of a veteran presence but, man, their on-paper talent is not as overrated as people think they are.   I am not a big pop culture guy but don't sleep on the Cavaliers.   I think they will make some noise this year if they just keep their heads on straight.

Third, congrats to the Atlanta Braves.   They sputtered all year but pulled it together at the end.  

Fourth, the MLB off-season has begun.  It's time to make some trades, Indains.  The Nov. 19th roster crunch is coming and the Indians' prospects in winter ball are not making those roster decisions easier.   Both Palacios and Tena were guys on the bubble of being rostered.   Had they had a bad AFL the Indians could have applied some sort of convoluted logic to not roster them.   However, they are both looking great both in the numbers and behind them (e.g., looking at Tena's exit velocities).  Both these guys have to be considered top prospects, maybe top 10 in the Indians system and maybe nudging up to the top 100 in all of baseball.    So, the FO of the Guardians (notice the mid-post change in name) needs to rethink the roster I proposed previously.

Hot Off The Presses: Pottery Barn Sues PETA

If ONLY this was April 1st I could write this article:

San Francisco, CA - Today lawyers for Pottery Barn filed a lawsuit against PETA (People for Ethical Treatment of Animals) for infringement of Pottery Barn's copyrights.   The lawsuit stated that the use of the term "Arms Barn" in PETA's campaign to stop baseball teams from using the word "bullpen" was a violation of their copyrights and was doing irreparable damage to their business.   

Pottery Barn, in their press release said that the use of the phrase "Arms Barn" was likely to cause them significant loss of sales due to the negative impression it is leaving on their customers.  "Our company has received over 1000 phone calls today alone from customers who said it was disgusting and that they wouldn't come into a store that had 'arms hanging from the ceiling or shelves of arm'" said spokesperson Seramique Potts. 

In a related event, SAOT (Share An Organ Today) decried use of the term "Arms Barn".  In its own release CEO Frank N. Stein said "Organ transplantation is, in many cases, a life-saving procedure.  The frivolous use of the phrase "Arms Barn" demeans every legitimate organization that helps match people with organs."

Meanwhile, sports orthopedists across the country have been beseiged by calls from former major league pitchers asking if the "Arms Barn" was a thing and whether there was an outlet in their area.  One orthopedist who requested anonymity said the he had received 15 calls from Bartolo Colon in one day asking where he should go to pick out a new arm.

The MLPAA (Major League Pitchers Association of America) also spoke out against PETA's proposal stating "Major league pitchers are fine-tuned athletes who have spent, in many cases, most of their lives developing their craft.  To characterize that they are kept in a barn is demeaning to them as professional athletes" The release went on to say "To characterize a human being by a part of their anatomy marginalizes them.   Pitchers are more than their arms.   They are people with families and dreams and, like all humans, deserve to be treated with respect."

TPC (The Prosthetic Collective) also added their voice in opposition to PETA's proposal.  In a video on their website CEO Miles Bennet, stated: "Prosthetics are important to help men, women and children who have lost limbs maintain their independence and worth and our company is making great breakthroughs in prosthetic technology every day.  To suggest that you can buy prosthetic arms at an outlet store is offensive to all the prosthetic manufacturers and the surgeons and physical therapists who every day are really helping people who need prosthetics."  

We reached out to PETA for comment on this outcry against their proposal but, so far, have not received a response.

In a typical year...

In a typical year

 ...those of us who worry about the Rule 5 draft would be worried about having to expose SOME of these guys to the Rule 5 and possibly losing one or more of them:

Juan Mota - 100+ fastball
Steven Kwan - 300+ hitter at AA/AAA and can catch the ball.
Marcos Gonzalez - 'hidden' as a reserve at AA, he has a good chance to break out this coming year
Jose Fermin - .290 hitter for his career with SS skills and infield versatility, mastered AA.
Adam Scott - lefty who can go multiple innings, way under-the-radar prospect who could fit well for a rebuilding team that plans to use openers and is looking for multiple innings guys to open or bridge to the late inning guys.   Think of how highly we think of Cody Morris and maybe (hard to tell yet) the only thing that separates them is that Morris came back sooner from his injury so he could show out more. 

I think that this year ALL of these guys will be exposed to the Rule 5 draft and it is likely that all but maybe Gonzalez will be drafted and, potentially lost.  That's the key, really, we are looking at 12-13 guys better or with more potential as the above guys.   In a normal year there would be 1-3 guys.   

...the subsection of the above group who worry about losing 6-year minor league free agents would hardly be worrried about anything.   This year if we don't roster Juan Hillman and Oscar Gonzalez we will likely lose them to teams that WILL roster them.  

...all fans of the Guardians would be worried about the 26 man roster will look like in 2022.  With 9 of our top 30 prospects and 6 of the top 14 having to be rostered this winter, and that doesn't include Oscar Gonzalex, Konnor Pilkington and Juan Hillman, some of us are really worried about what the 40 man will look like this winter. 

...all of the fans would be worried about what cheap free agents we might try to sign at the end of the off-season.   Some of us are, instead, seeing the writing on the wall as far as the 40 man situation, have started hypothesizing about how we could trade multiple prospects for a young major leaguer to help us in the outfield or second base.  

Updated Indians' Top Prospect List - Early Post-Season List

Eddie Rosario's Braves and Michael Brantley/Josh tomlin/Phil Maton's Astros are in the World Series. That signals that the beginning of the off-season is only 4-7 games away.  In light of that let's take a look at the Indians' updated top prospect list.  This list has been adjusted based on the results and information obtained from mid-season to now.  Where guys have slipped or risen I have included some comments.  Looking back over this year, in my opinion, the Indians farm system easily ranks in the top 10 in baseball and, realistically, probably is top 5.   I know this is a bold statement as people tend to look at the cream of teams' farm systems to make this judgement.   But when you look at the overall quality and the overall depth, this is the best Indians' farm system I have ever seen and there have been instances in the past, albeit only a few, where the Indians have been top 5.  FYI, if I was going to slot Yainer Diaz on this list he would probably slot between 26-29.  He is #13 for Houston.   Just pointing this out to point out the strength of our farm system compared to the average major league team. 

In any case, here goes the first post-season look at our top prospects:

1. Tyler Freeman 

2. George Valera
3. Daniel Espino
4. Nolan Jones
5. Gabe Arias
6. Brayan Rocchio
7. Oscar Gonzalez
8. Doug Nikhazy
9. Logan T. Allen

10. Gavin Williams - The first guy who drops for me, the video I saw of Williams showed me a guy who was leaving a lot of pitches up.   Remember, this is the instructs, filled with players who have barely scratched the surface of low A or US complex league teams.   Yet guys were hitting him and he wasn't dominating counts.   I see a big red flag here, but time will tell.
11. Tommy Mace
12. Jhonkensy Noel

13. Richie Palacios - Here is a guy who has moved up due to three things: his performance at Columbus, his performance in the AFL and his position versatility (INF/OF).  He still looks like a low ball hitter with his dip at the knees before he swings and this may be being taught in the minors (Tena does the same thing) so that might be easily attacked by major league pitchers. Still, he looks good against all pitching so far and is an outside candidate to make the team out of spring training unless the Indians trade for or sign an outfielder.
14. Carson Tucker
15. Angel Martinez
16. Bo Naylor
17. Jose Tena
18. Bryan Lavistida

19. Isaiah Greene
20. Ethan Hankins
21. Cody Morris

22. Juan Hillman
23. Joey Cantillo
24.  Payton Battenfield
25. Alexfri Planez
26. Luis Durango, Jr.
27. Jake Fox

28. Tanner Burns
29. Carlos Vargas
30. Gabriel Rodriguez
31. Francisco Perez

32. Petey Halpin - A big bump here because he showed lots at low A at a young age.  Don't know if this was just the result that everyone's development was depressed due to the lack of a minor league season in 2020 but, at the least, he has become really intriguing given his high draft slot and higher bonus.

33. Lenny Torres - An accidental omission from the previous list, it is hard to tell how much of this season is just recovery process from surgery last year and how much represents how limited he will be in terms of his talent.  Still, just outside the top 30 is a good place for him this off-season.
34. Angel Genao
35. Fran Alduey

36. Konnor Pilkington

37. Steven Kwan - Big jump here because of production both in Columbus and in the instructs.   He still looks like a AAAA outfielder to me as he is a tweener in every sense of the word.   I see him as a prime candidate not to be rostered and, if that happens, a potential #1 overall selection in the Rule 5 draft.

38. Will Benson  - It is starting to look more like Benson will be a AAAA player.   Still, if he survives this Rule 5 draft there is still an outside chance that he could go all Oscar Gonzalez on us in 2022.

39. Xzavion Curry - Big jump here just because others have stumbled.

40. Milan Tolentino - A big jump here as he showed more power than a young middle infielder in rookie ball should.   If power is the last tool to develop, I can't wait to see how this kid ends up!
41. Justin Garza
42. Scott Moss
43.  Nick Mikolajchak
44. Jose Pestrano
45. Josh Wolf
46. Jerson Ramirez
47. Tanner Bibee

49. Juan Mota - Another guy who didn't move much from the mid-season rankings but, with his 100 mph fastball, a guy who is a prime Rule 5 pick.
50. Jonathon Rodriguez

51. Will Brennan - Against my better judgement I moved him up a little.   The mirage that is older guys playing against younger competition in the low- to mid-minors has been seen time and time again in subsequent years for those players.  Still, let's give him one more year to see if his performance sticks and if he can go all Steven Kwan on us.

52. Kirk McCarty
53. Trenton Brooks
54. Aaron Braccho
53. Cam Hill
55. Jose Fermin
56. Junior Sanquintin

57. Marcos Gonzalez - A slight bump for him as, although he was a backup, he is only slightly removed from being a top prospect and like Naylor, was really pushed for his age to a level he would struggle at.  Gonzalez is my pick as one of the breakout candidates next year, if he survives this off-season as a member of the Indians.

58. Andruw Monasterio

59. Hunter Gaddis
60. Ryan Webb

61. Tanner Tully
62. Robert Broom
63.  Mason Hickman

64. Dayan Frias - A guy I don't want to totally sleep on, he is a long shot who is Rule 5 eligible this winter and has barely scratched low A but if he is with the organization next spring, is a guy who could really jump, maybe ending the year raking in AA with a good chance to make the roster next winter.
65. Dakody Clemmer

66. Kevin Kelly
67. Jack Leftwich
68. Rodney Boone
69. Yordys Valdez
70. Christian Cairo
71. Conner Kokx
72. Adam Scott - He didn't move much from the mid-season report but I still wanted to highlight him.   He has no chance to make the 40-man this winter but does have a decent chance to be selected in the Rule 5 as a lefty who can give some length, especially in this area of openers...even in the playoffs, for gosh sakes!
73. Aaron Pinto
74. Joe Naranjo

75. Tim Herrin
76. Thomas Ponticelli
77. Trenton Denholm

78. Matt Turner - Appearing on this list a first time just because of his pedigree and that the Indians thought enough of hisneed for development to have him in the AFL where his talents would be showcased as a potential Rule 5 pick (either major or minor league portions) later this fall.
79. Connor Marabell
80. Alex Call
81. Shane McCarthy
82. Skylar Arias
83. Nic Enright

84. Andrew Misiaszek
85. Will Bartlett
86. Zach Hart
87. Jamie Arias-Bautista
88. Quentin Holmes
89. Richard Polanco
90. Robert Lopez
91. Yefri Rivera
92. Franco Aleman
93.  Will Dion
94. Korey Holland
95. Hunter Stanley
96. Zach Pettway
97. Raymond Burgos
98. Aaron Davenport

99. Mike Rivera

100. Damon Casetta-Stubbs

How did we do at the trade deadline

 Let's take a statistical look at how we did at the trade deadline.

Hernandez for Pilkington:

Hernandez: post-trade regular season:  .232 BA/.608 OPS

Hernandez: post-season: .286 BA/ .831 OPS

Analysis: The White Sox got 1.5 years of a reasonably priced solid second baseman,   He wasn't as good as he was in Cleveland but the Sox thought enough of his value to trade Madrigal to help get Kimbrel.  Pilkington has potential but having to protect a guy who isn't even one of our top 30 prospects this off-season is a problem.   My fear is that they will protect him to justify the Hernandez trade, resulting in a much more quality prospect being left exposed to the Rule 5 or given away for peanuts in some trade.

Rosario for Sandoval:

Rosario: Regular season: .271 BA/ .903 OPS

Rosario: Post-season so far: .409 BA/ .874 OPS, one game-winning hit

Analysis: A salary dump this is paying dividends, BIG dividends for Braves.  This should have been a PTBNL or cash trade.   Instead, we end up paying Sandoval, releasing him, and getting nothing.   The FO should have tied this to a performance-based criteria.  Yes we take Sandoval but we get our choice of minor leaguers if Rosario makes an impact.  

Straw for Maton and Yainer Diaz

Maton: Regular season: 4-0, 4.97 ERA

Maton: Postseason: 5.1 ip, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 5 K

Diaz: Regular season: low A: .229 BA, .557 OPS; High A: .396 BA, 1,219 OPS

Analysis:  A clear win for the Indians getting a true CFer to stabilize their outfield.    Houston feels better about themselves because Maton has done OK for them and they have his rights for another couple of seasons.   Diaz would never have been protected by the Indians.  We just had too many prospects ahead of him.   However, his 11 HR in 98 ABs after being promoted to High A is really eye-popping.  The best thing besides Straw to come out of this trade for the Indians is the realization, if they actually realize it, of how strong our farm system is.   Diaz would not have made our top 30 prospects and he is currently #13 for the Astros after his end-of-season splurge.  This should solidify for the Indians what they need to do this off-season: Either protect their prospects from the Rule 5 or value them well in trades and not just overpay in prospects in a trade because we have so many to protect.

Jordan Luplow and DJ Johnson for Peyton Battenfield

Luplow: Regular season: .246 BA, .796 OPS

Luplow: Post-season: .286 BA, .857 OPS, 1 grand slam

Johnson: 2,2 innings, 0 runs.   Currently on 60-day DL

Analysis: Each team got what they wanted in this trade.   Considering that Luplow was on the DL and Johnson was a throw-in, the Indians did well to get Battenfield and the Rays did well to get their guy, a lefty killer who they have under control through 2027.  Battenfield won't be eligible for the Rule 5 until after 2022.   Given that he was successful at AA, unless he gets hurt next year the Indians will get a good look at him in the high minors next year to see if he is worth protecting next winter.   He might even get a callup to the majors next year if he performs well.

So, the Indians had a mixed bag.   Straw and Battenfield help us now and the future and the guys we gave up likely we would have DFA'd this winter.   So, overall, I give the Indians a plus for their trades, given all the unfortunate circumstances with Rosario around the trade deadline.