Wednesday, July 21, 2021

Post Draft Mock Draft

 OK, almost every year I do a mock draft after the draft of what the Indians could have done.   I then file that away and look at it years later (or not).   

Looking through the Indians draft this year and knowing that they have a lot of position player prospects in the minors, it is a little hard to do that this year as all I would be doing is sacrificing pitching for.

There are only two places where I can see the Indians having drafted a position player over the pitcher they drafted.

Round 6:

Indians drafted Aaron Davenport

I would have drafted: Parker Chavers, OF, Coastal Carolina - Chavers has speed and power but was old for the draft (23).   

Summary: I think Davenport is a stretch here.  My sense is that the Indians will save some slot money on Davenport that they feel they need to sign some of their other guys.  Still, with that being said, I think given how heavy the draft was at this point with college pitchers (5 already picked), Chavers was the better choice.  

Round 9:

Indians chose Will Dion

I would have chosen: Niko Cavadas 1B

Summary: Cavadas is a DH in training.   Nonetheless, he has plus plus power and good bat speed and getting the #135 prospect at this point in the draft was a steal as I am sure the Red Sox will find.  When you get to the 9th round you are looking for one outstanding tool and Cavadas has that, power. Dion doesn't have that tool as far as I can see. So, to me, Dion is a stretch and a head-scratcher at this spot in the draft but two things are true about the Indians: (a) they know how to stretch their draft budget out to the last dollar (Dion will come cheap compared to Kavadas) and (b) they know how to develop pitchers.  Maybe by this point they did the math and decided that they couldn't sign Cavadas and stay within their budget.  Maybe they had no choice, by their calculations, but to take a chance on Dion based on their pitching development program because they needed as much slot money left as possible and Dion was going to save them some bucks.   However, this pick, above all picks in the Indians' draft, may be the most second-guessable when you compare Dion to Cavadas.

Looking at the available guys at every other draft slot and factoring in that you can likely get more value from college players, especially pitchers and that the Indians usually pick the right college pitchers, sign them and turn them into prospects AND that good high school prospects come with higher price tags and with much greater risk than college guys AND how bad a record the Indians have had at selecting HS position players, especially after the first round, I can't find fault with or suggest alternative draft picks at any position.

Not bad, only two spots out of 21 draft picks where I would have chosen differently based on the talent available in the draft.  Let's hope the Indians are right will all their draft picks and that Chavers and Cavadas don't make us have buyer's regret down the road.

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