Monday, August 9, 2021

Back to the 40-man roster

 Giving this a little more thought and considering how I put together that roster, here are some thoughts:

(A) The roster contains at least 6 players (highlighted in blue) who have close to zero chance of being ready to play in the majors in 2022.   That number is not that extreme but it is still a problem.  Five of those guys (Cantillo, Noel, Rocchio, Tena and Valera) will have their option clock started and the other one, Carlos Vargas, will require another option to be used on him, meaning that 2 of his probable 4 options will have been used without him getting above A ball.  

(B) Besides the above 5, 7 others (Morris, Pilkington, Lavastida, Freeman, Palacios, Benson and Gonzalez) will be on the roster for the first time.

(C) There are 6 relief pitchers who are currently on the 40 man who will have to be DFA'd if we roster all the prospects we need to.   That can represent a problem for us as there are only 7 relief pitchers with any major league experience who we will roster this winter.  

(D) All the other positions (catcher, infield and outfield) appear to have enough depth to field a ML team.   We will obviously have to bring in a veteran catcher to play at Columbus until Lavastida and Bo Naylor are ready.   Fortunately Bo Naylor does not have to be rostered until next winter.

Looking at the relief pitchers below who we may not be able to roster and some of the young players we want to roster, here are some thoughts.

Joey Cantillo - A key piece in the Clevinger trade, he hasn't pitched all year.   He would be a likely player to not be rostered, gambling that he likely wouldn't have the experience to survive a whole year in the majors next year.  At the same time, if he has surgery this winter a team could stash him all next year after drafting him in the Rule 5 and groom him for another year.

Johnkensy Noel - He is tearing up low A but the Indians have not promoted him yet.   Interesting.   Are they thinking that keeping him at low A will keep teams from getting a read on him?  I have 3 things to say to the Indians:

(a) Anthony Santander - The Indians took a chance he wouldn't be picked because he had never played above A ball and was hurt.   They were wrong.
(b) 495 feet, 485 feet.  Two HRs he hit in the same game.
(c) .390 BA.  
(d) Albert Pujols - He made the jump from low A to the majors year over year and never looked back.  Not saying Noel = Pujols but there are some similarities.  The comp means, to me, we have to roster him as I don't believe the ruse of keeping him at low A will work.   If he is available he is drafted in the Rule 5

Jose Tena - He is not the perfect middle infield prospect but he is a good one.  We will already risk not rostering Jose Fermin.  I have to believe that we won't risk not rostering two quality MIF prospects and Tena is more intriguing than Fermin, who has hit 9th all year for Akron.

Will Benson - The most interesting guy on this list of prospects I think we need to roster, Benson is also a guy who you could easily see not rostering and telling other teams 'Go ahead, take a chance on a one year wonder'.  The classic sucker bet, the Indians may feel they would win this mind game with their opponents and they might be right.  Nothing about this year says that Benson has broken through.   While he appears to be on an upward trajectory his addition to the 40-man this winter appears to be the most questionable.

George Valera - Like Noel, he oozes potential and is too high a prospect to not roster.

Rocchio - Ditto to Valera

Palacios - Maybe the rest of this year will change my mind but his trajectory is upwards and he looks like a better version of Clement.  

Tyler Freeman - He has shown enough to be rostered.  Even with the shoulder injury.

Looking at this list and the relievers we have, I could see us rostering Justin Garza and not rostering Benson.  If you believe Cantillo isn't going to be lost in the Rule 5 you could roster someone else but who would that be?  Wittgren is nothing special but at least he has had SOME success in the majors.   Hill, Allen, Moss, Nelson do not, right now, appear to be great losses as they don't provide anything special in terms of pure stuff or performance.  Ditto for the players Chang, Mercado and Johnson and, maybe even Own Miller, although I think we should stick with him based on his pedigree (although he really sucks right now) and give him one more year.

Another point on the list below.   It is a stocked 40-man roster.   No fluff.  So unless you non-tender someone in December, you can't really add a ML free agent.  You would have to wait for opening day when you 60-day DL someone if you wanted to add someone to the roster.  As it is now with the discussion above we would have to expose Joey Cantillo, Will Benson and Jose Fermin to the Rule 5 draft and that is in the BEST of situations.   In addition to those guys there are a host of minor league relievers who would be exposed to the Rule 5 and given the trajectories of guys like Justin Garza and Francisco Perez this year, we could lose guys in the Rule 5 who might have made their ML debuts in the Indians' bullpen in 2022.

There will be some hard decisions this winter.   I hope the Indians lean more toward the future than towards the present. 

Last point: Given the list below the obvious thing would be to trade 2-3 guys from the current 40-man roster who we intend to DFA to some team in need of ML-ready players and get 1 good prospect back who doesn't have to be rostered this winter.   However, I don't believe the Indians have the ability to pull of even one trade of this type when 2-3 need to be pulled off.   This is the only way I can imagine having the roster we need for next year AND not losing players for pennies. 

2022 Starting Rotation Candidates

1. Shane Beiber
2. Aaron Civale
3. Triston McKenzie
4. Zach Plesac
5. Cal Quantrill
6. Eli Morgan
7. Cody Morris (Minor league depth)
8. Konnor Pinkington (Minor league depth)
9. Carlos Vargas (probably not useable in 2022)
10. Joey Cantillo (probably not useable in 2022)

2022 Bullpen Candidates

1. Emmanuel Clase
2. James Karinchak
3. Francisco Perez
4. Nick Sandlin
5. Trevor Stephan
6. Sam Hentges (also starter depth)
7. JC Mejia (also starter depth)
8. Logan Allen (not on roster)
9. Cam Hill (not on roster)
10. Kyle Nelson (not on roster)
11. Justin Garza (not on roster)
12. Nick Wittgren (not on roster)
13. Scott Moss (not on roster)

2022 Catchers

1. Roberto Perez
2. Austin Hedges
3. Bryan Lavastida (minor league depth)

2022 Infielders

1. Bobby Bradley (1B)
2. Andres Gimenez (2B/SS)
3. Amed Rosario (SS)
4. Jose Ramirez (3B)
5. Owen Miller (Utility)
6. Nolan Jones (3B/1B/OF)
7. Gabe Arias (minor league depth)
8. Tyler Freeman (minor league depth)
9. Richie Palacios (minor league depth)
10. Johnkensy Noel (probably not useable in 2022)
11. Brayan Rocchio (probably not useable in 2022)
12. Jose Tena (probably not useable in 2022)
13. Ernie Clement (not on roster)
14. Yu Chang (not on roster)
15. Jose Fermin (Rule 5 eligible as not on roster)

2022 Outfielders

1. Myles Straw
2. Harold Ramirez
3. Bradley Zimmer
4. Franmil Reyes
5. Josh Naylor
6. Oscar Gonzalez (minor league depth)
7. Will Benson (minor league depth)
8. George Valera (probably not useable in 2022)
9. Oscar Mercado (not on roster)
10. Daniel Johnson (not on roster)

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