Wednesday, December 14, 2022

Post for a Wednesday: window dressing? Same product, different price. Why not William Contreras? Houston, we have a lineup issue.

 Wow, the free agent market is crazy both in dollars and length of contracts.  Imagine Carlos Correa playing at 41 years old for over 20 million?!?  Well, maybe with his current guaranteed contract he might decide he can actually take a lead off of first base and steal a base.    So let's dig into our Wednesday and see where it takes us.

WINDOW DRESSING

The Guardians signed Mike Zunnino to a $6 million, one year deal.  I question this as Austin Hedges was going to get about $4 million in free agency.  The question is why would the Guards pay $6 million to a guy who doesn't know our pitching staff, who is coming off of surgery, who is a career .200 hitter without plate discipline who doesn't bunt?  You know what they say about putting lipstick on a pig, right?  I don't see this as an upgrade or even a lateral move.  Unless the Guardians are pretty sure Hedges is going to have ongoing concussion problems, I don't get this.   I get the one-year deal, just not the player getting that deal.  Can the Guardians really be desperate enough that they are buying a lottery ticket (Zuninno returing to his 2021 form and being able to be as effective with a pitching staff he doesn't know as Hedges, who has worked these guys for years, would be).  Just because the guy hit a lot of HRs in a recent year?  Seems like a PR move, a desperation move after getting beaten out of Sean Murphy.  And speaking of Sean Murphy...

SAME PRODUCT, DIFFERENT PRICE

I have seen a number of sites that rated the Sean Murphy trade.  The A's have gotten anywhere from a "C" to an "F" in this deal.   I previously posted the package I thought was equivalent to what the Braves gave up:

Tanner Bibee
Tanner Burns
Richie Palacios
Konnor Pilkington or Peyton Battenfield

Yet, Andre Knott is saying the package the A's wanted from us started with Daniel Espino.   I don't know what 'source' Knott was getting his information but this seems like corporate BS to me, just like 'We made and offer to Jose Abreu'.    Could the A's really ask for Espino and others from the Guardians and settle with the lower quality package they got from Atlanta/Milwaukee.  If we were in constant communication with Oakland up until the deal was made I can't believe that the above package wouldn't have sealed the deal.  I mean, the best prospect the A's got back was Kyle Muller, who wasn't even close to being a top 10 prospect in baseball whereas Espino was like 15th or so.   

If Knott is correct (personally, I think he was played in this case) what does that say about what other GMs think of the intelligence of our front office that they would think we would just give away prospects?  Well, I guess Oakland could have used recent evidence (Tobias Myers, Nolan Jones, Carlos Vargas) as evidence that we don't value prospects.  

But, in the end, if Oakland was thinking we were that desperate, it didn't work.  But this  trade does bring up one queston...

WHY NOT WILLIAM CONTRERAS?

In the grades of the Murphy trade everyone is saying the 3rd, facilitating party, Milwaukee, was the big winner in this trade.  They got a young catcher who can hit but is questionable behind the plate AND two relievers who are ML ready for their #8 prospect whose big resume' point is he stole 88 bases this year in the minors.   Now Contreras may eventually wind up as a DH but he is a catcher who has caught in the majors.   If you want a stopgap until Bo Naylor is ready AND you want to ncrease your offense and you want a young player who can help you at different positions in the future, Contreras seems like a good fit to me, especially when Sandy Alomar could have worked with him.  Looking at what the Brewers gave up, I would think that Richie Palacios or Will Brennan would have gotten the job done.   It would be nice to ask Antonnetti what the inner workings of this deal were and why the Guardians did not jump in once they know the Braves were willing to trade catching.  This is something that I hope doesn't haunt them this season but I can't believe $6 million for Zuninno was better than a prospect for Contreras and a couple of relief pitchers.  

HOUSTON, WE HAVE A LINEUP PROBLEM

Changing gears, I want to talk about an elephant in the room that no one else seems to have mentioned.  

Last year the Guardians team leader in grounding into double plays was Amed Rosario.   Then the Guardians signed Josh Bell.  He grounded into 22 double plays, most of that in Washington where he was actually hitting the ball.  This mirrored 2021 where he also grounded into 22.   

Projections for this year have Rosario returning to the #2 hole and Bell hitting 4th.  To me this is totally unreasonable.  How can you have 2 double play machines at the top of the order for a team that doesn't hit a lot of HRs and plays station-to-station baseball?  It just doesn't work.  By signing Bell I think Francona is almost forced, statistically speaking, to change his order to the following"

Kwan
Gimenez
Ramirez
Gonzalez
Bell
Naylor
Rosario
Straw
Zuninno

Gonzalez doesn't walk much so it is less likely a double play would be in order when Bell came to bat.  Ditto for Rosario hitting 7th.  Less likely someone will be on base.   Will the elimination of the uber-shift help Bell and Rosario?  Maybe with Bell but I doubt it with Rosario.  However, I will leave that to the analytics people to make that call.  Considering this at face value, however, no way do Bell and Rosario hit at the top of the order sandwiching Ramirez.  That, on paper, would kill Ramirez's year and might totally negate the advantages gained by replacing Miller with Bell.

Just sayin'

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