John, it will never be the same without you!

 Just taking a second to send my condolences to the family and friends of Cleveland baseball's most famous drummer, John Adams.    I don't know of ANYONE who has had a more lasting impact on Cleveland baseball than Mr. Adams.  Pounding on that drum, trying to fire up/rally Cleveland to win another game, being the lifelong fan that he was, putting his fandom on display every home game for like 50 years!

I can't speak for others but it is more than I or anyone I know has done.   

I wasn't going to write anything about this.  It was well reported and opined on by others more in the limelight.  My thoughts to him and his family could have been silent and yet just as sincere as this post.

But I wanted my readers, and maybe John looking down on us still on this earth, to know that what he did to maintain baseball enthusiasm in Cleveland will likely not be forgotten for a long, long time.

I will end with that because there is nothing more a guy like me to say to a guy like him but, once again, thanks for everything you did for the team I love.

What are Kansas City and Oakland doing?

 Normally this blog is dedicated to the actions and future of the Cleveland Guardians and their players.

Still, today, I have to digress.  As I look over baseball and see what Oakland and Kansas City are doing it gives me awful flashbacks to what the Indians did when I was growing up.  The A's and Royals are currently connected not only in the origin of their franchises (Kansas City (before that Philadelphia for the A's)) but also from their recent fire sales that appear to be aimed more at clearing salary than in firing up a rebuild.

Nothing highlighted this better than the two recent trades the Royals made, trading Adelberto Mondesi and Michael Taylor and getting back three relief pitchers, two of them minor leaguers yet to pitch in the majors and a 3rd who was hurt all of 2022.  

To put this in perspective Jonathon Mayo wrote a recent article where he polled MLB executives about the strength of MLB farm systems.  He asked these execs to rate the best farm systems on a number of criteria:

• Best farm system
• Uses draft the best
• Uses international market the best
• Has the most underrated farm system
• Hoards its prospects the most
• Develops pitchers the best
• Develops hitters the best
• Best at developing sleeper prospects

The Royals finished tied for 5th in developing sleeper prospects.  The A's finished tied for 9th in developing hitters.  

That is it!  You would figure that a team like the A's that has had the multiyear fire sale it has had would have finished higher in SOME category.  The Royals, who routinely draft near the top of the draft would likely have had one of the stronger farm systems, right?

These results ring so true for the Indians of my youth through my 30s.  The way the Indians operated back then was a big contributor to them being a consistent also-ran for a long period of time.  I really worry that the A's and Royals are not doing these veterans-for-prospects trade well enough and, maybe, are not doing them well at all.

I don't like the return the A's got for Murphy.  Not sure of the quality of their return for their other veteran trades but given what they settled for from Atlanta (no players who were even in MLB's top 100, sort of a group of tier 2 and tier 3 prospects, quantity over quality) and their current farm system rank, I can't believe they did as well or better in those other trades, either.

I hope they have things figured out more than the surface evidence would indicate.   From my long-range perception, which does limit what I know about these deals, it appears to me that they have not jump-started their rebuild with these veteran-clearing trades,  Maybe I am completely wrong and the value they received will turn into important pieces for their future teams.  I really do, but I have lived through this same thing with the Indians so what Kansas City and Oakland are doing doesn't give me a good feeling.

Just for comparison, here is where the Guardians ranked in these categories:

• Best farm system - Tied for 5th
• Uses draft the best -Tied for 6th
• Uses international market the best - Tied for 4th
• Has the most underrated farm system - Tied for 9th
• Hoards its prospects the most - 1st (Tampa was 2nd, duh!)
• Develops pitchers the best - 1st
• Develops hitters the best - Tied for 9th
• Best at developing sleeper prospects - 4th

It is good to be a Guardians fan these days and it is better than that to be a prospect geek Guardians fan.

I wish the A's and Royals the best of luck in their rebuild for their fans' sake and for the health of baseball in those two cities.  If these teams had worked with the Guardians instead of (my impression) that KC did not want to trade within their division, or that the A's (or KC) only wanted to rob the Guardians in trades (Daniel Espino? Really?) they likely would have done better than settling for much less elsewhere.  Maybe, I am wrong about the quality of the Guardians' prospects.  Maybe I am wrong about what Oakland wanted from us for Murphy (What say you Andre Knott???).  

Not sure but, if you are an older Indians' fan and you see what is going on in KC and Oakland, it might very easily look to you like deja vu all over again.

Thinking out loud: Roster As Decided By Player Control

 There have been a number of articles on the internet recently (including mine) talking about the composition of the roster coming out of spring training.  In addition, Francona has added some intrigue by talking about Naylor playing some RF.

Part of the roster discussion considers whether we will carry a 2nd utility infielder (Tyler Freeman) or a 5th outfielder (Will Benson).  Although not unanimous, the consensus is that we would carry Freeman instead of Benson, which is what I have suggested the Guardians should/will do.

However, when you think about it, the decision is going to rest on a number of factors:

(1) Will we sign a free agent (probably a relief pitcher) to a major league contract?  If so, someone would have to be dropped from the 40-man roster and the most likely person is Will Benson.  Without Benson, Freeman looks like a shoe-in as Arias (and hopefully Naylor) can play some OF, giving us essentially 6 options in the outfield.  

(2) Our injury situation coming out of spring training. Will we have any 60-day DL players who would give us an extra 40-man roster spot to start the season?

(3) Who our backup catcher would be.  If it is Lavastda or Naylor that would not impact the 40-man.  If it is Cam Gallagher or another non-roster invitee, then we have to clear a 40-man roster spot which, as indicated above, might impact the Benson/Freeman question if they don't DFA Lavastida.

(4) Service Tme Clock - If you had to choose between Will Benson and Tyler Freeman, which of these players do you think would be more likely to become a stud player going forward.  My money is on Tyler Freeman so you wouldn't want to waste any of his service time being a #2 backup infielder, especially if that could make him a super 2 player down the road.

So, with that in mind, let's look at our younger players and see whether we would have an issue with any of them in terms of service time:

Steven Kwan - As a starter, the point is moot here.  Still, we will likely get our full three years out of him before he goes to arbitration.

Oscar Gonalez - Depending on how he does early this year he has the real chance to be a super 2 after 2024.  So if he struggles at all, I think the Guardians would send him down to work on stuff and save him from burning service time languishing on the major league bench.

Gabriel Arias - Another potential, but less likely, Super 2 guy, I don't see the Guardians caring that much about him being a Super 2.  Still, with Rosario leaving at the end of this year it gives us more coverage at SS in the future for a cheaper price if Arias isn't a Super 2.  In addition, do we really want to burn his pre-arbitration years as a utility infielder?  I think it is a fair question to ask if they wouldn't let him play at AAA for a little while just to keep him out of that Super 2 category.

Will Benson - Given his career trajectory, I think on our 40-man roster he has the most chance to flame out and become a AAAA player.  That being said, if you had to keep a guy on your 26 who you weren't afraid of being a Super 2 it would be a guy like Benson.  That is, burning his pre-arbitration years is not an issue if you don't expect him to ever be a starting player.

Tyler Freeman - As mentioned above, I think he has a better chance than Benson or maybe even Arias of being a star player.  So I would want him to spend the year at AAA instead of on Cleveland's bench where most of what he would do would be to collect service time as the #2 utility infielder.  For a small market team like Cleveland, burning service time in this way is just not practical as you would be gettting less productive, cheap years  out of the guy.

Xzavion Curry - As with so many of these guys, it comes down to Super 2 status and the club maintaining his cheap, productive years.  So if they convert him to reliever this year and they think he will spend most of the year in the majors as a result, it is worth bringing him up right away.  But not if he is just going to sit on the bench or be a spot starter for a few games and stays on the roster in between.

Hunter Gaddis - See Curry

Joey Cantillo - Given his development path, I can't see them burning one day of his service time this year unless it is absolutely necessary.  Since we have to burn a minor league onption on him anyway, why not just leave him in the minors and let him get his work in indead of starting his service clock.

Tim Herrin - Herring falls in the same category as Will Benson: not likely to have a lengthy major league career.  In that case it is more important that we get the maximum production that he can provide this year to help the team without worrying about his service time and him reachng arbitration too soon.

Cody Morris - Here is an interesting one.  I think he has a spot in the bullpen from Day 1.  If that is what the Guardians think then they won't be concerned with his service time.  But, if they envision him as a future starter they might want him refining his craft at AAA instead of burning service time as a mop-up man/spot starter in the big leagues.  So don't be amazed if he is one of the surprise cuts (sent to AAA) this spring even if he has a great spring training.

Konnor Pilkington - Just like last year, I see them using him as necessary without much concern to service time or minor league options.  I don't see him as a BIG contributor in the future so him getting to arbitration sooner is only of small concern as compared to what he can do to help the team this season.

Bryan Lavastida - I don't see the Guardians worried at this point about his minor league options or his service time.  He has not placed himself in a position (so far) to be considered a starting catcher going foward so if we use his cervice time as a backup I don't see that as a problem

Bo Naylor - Actually, this year, he will be the poster time for conserving service time.  When he is brought to the majors this year it will be as much about service time as it will be about need.  I think you won't see him until he can have a significant role on this team.  If he is only going to be a part-time player in the majors, look for him to spend most of the year at AAA.

Will Brennan - He is ready for the majors, I think.  I also think they will be less concerned about his service time than you would expect.  I see him being on the roster most of the season without concern to service time or minor league options.  He just doesn't fit the mold of a core player who you want to maximize his productive years cheaply where you would only bring him up when he can be a starter.  I think Brennan will be productive and I see the Guardians maximizing his productiveness to the team this year instead of worrying about wasting his service time for an extra-man role.

The Rest - The remaining rookies on the 40-man and the good prospects not on the 40-man will only be brought to the majors if there is a pressing need we can't address from out roster.  I see guys like Gavin Williams, Logan Allen, Peyton Battenfield, Joey Cantillo, Daniel Espino, Tanner Bibee only being added to the 40 man if a starter goes down or Plesac or Civale are jettisoned for bad performance.   For the middle infielders on the 40-man, except for cups of coffee or short-term emergency replacements (2 weeks or less), I don't see much ML time for them.  Ditto for George Valera.  Guys like Juan Brito, Angel Martnez, Jose Tena, Jhonkensy Noel are all dead spots on the roster.  I don't see any of them playing in the majors this year except for a cup of coffee.  They are just not ready so why would you start the service time clock on a guy who might be a future stud player who would then start to become effective when you had to start paying him arbitration salary.

What I do see is that some of our borderline prospects (Mikolajchak, Misiasek, Enright and Kelly (if we get them back)) might be used like we did Tanner Tully, Jake Jewell, etc. last year. We use them when we need them but are not afraid to DFA them, let alone worry about their service time.  Again, this depends on how the organization views them but I don't imagine that they are that highly thought of as they were all left exposed to the Rule 5 this past winter.

Historical Look At Indians/Guardians Trades - Part 3: The Stank May Never Fade

 Now to the last in this series.  Trades Cleveland fans would like to but can't seem to forget.   Just like the rotted refuse in your garbage cans that have you begging for garbage day to arrive so that stank can go live somewhere else.

Surprisingly it's hard to find enough real trades to make up a list like this so I have thrown in some DFA situations that were really ripe, too.

1. Rocky Colavito for Harvey Kuenn

You are not a Cleveland baseball fan over 75 years old if you don't know this trade.  Just like Moe goes into a crazed trance when he hears the word "Ticonderoga" in the Three Stooges skit, older, avid Cleveland fans generally go ballistic when you mention the name Rocky Colavito.  

You see, the orginal "Rock", as in "Don't Knock the Rock", was the face of the franchise before he was traded for Harvey Kuenn, the guy who beat out Tito Francona for the batting title in '59.  

Colavito would eventually come back to the Indians but not until he deposited 173 of his 374 career HRs in the cheap seats during his 5 year tour of Detroit and Kansas City.   Throwing salt on the wound was that Kuenn hit 9 HRs and lasted 1 season before he was traded to San Francisco.   Now between Kuenn and Willie Kirkland who we obtained from San Francisco for Kuenn, we kinda covered 2 of Colavito's 5 years in exile with decent stats.

But still...

"The Curse of the Rock" still haunts Cleveland to this day as they have not won a WS since that trade.   For that reason this, for right or wrong, is acknowledged as the worst trade in Cleveland baseball history.

2. Brandon Phillips for Jeff Stevens

You ever wonder why guys like Bradley Zimmer, Yu Chang, Bobby Bradley and Oscar Mercado got all the shots they did?  Did you ever wonder why one Cleveland Baseball GM/President once said "You don't know what you have until a guy has 1000 major league at bats"?  People in the Cleveland organization may not admit it, but the origin of these long looks come from three sources (1) Brandon Phillips (2) Gio Urshela and (3) Yandy Diaz.   Urshela had his chances but couldn't hit enough to match his Gold Glove-caliber defense.  Diaz didn't get a long-term look but they just couldn't find a way to get him to lift the ball in Cleveland.   But Phillips?  Well, he got the shot that Urshela did with the same results.   The issue was that Cleveland did not have a decent secondbaseman when they traded Phillips.  They could have given him a season, a real chance.  But they didn't.  They gave his roster spot to Ramon Vazquez who was a career replacement-level player.  

The rest is, as they say, history.  Phillips, now unfettered by Cleveland's coaching staff and front office, went on to start an 11 year, 3 all-star game stretch in Cincinnati, doing all the things the Indians said he couldn't do, like hit the ball the other way.  In a pricelessly ironic moment,  I distinctly remember watching the Indians in St. Louis that year.  During the game they were showing highlights of other games in progress.  The highlight of the Reds game showed Phillips hitting a line drive the other way to plate two runs.  Again, incredibly ironic but ROFL deliciously priceless, in a film noir kinda way.

3. Brian Giles for Rincardo Rincon

An example that I hope is hung on the wall in the Guardians' FO, this trade is the poster child for why it is NOT OK to trade your excess prospects for a useful bit part just because you HAVE an excess.  Giles' career in Pittsburgh and San Diego was legendary and Rincon faded away into nothingness.  In thinking about this, this trade may, in part, be the reason the Guardians didn't treat their MIF prospect depth lightly this winter, remembering what happens when you undervalue your prospect depth (see Sexon and Giles, for example).

4. Pedro Guerrero for Bruce Ellingsen

The reason this trade is so low on this list is that few people remember it.  I alluded to it in my Tobias Myers for Junior Caminero trade post last year.  Guerrero was a kid signed as a 16 year old by the Indians in 1973 and traded a year later for Ellingsen, a guy who had pretty much lost his 40 man roster spot for the Dodgers.  Ellingsen pitched 42 non-memorable innings for the Indians that year and never pitched again in the majors, retiring the next year.  But since the development path for a kid still playing in the DSL at the time is so long, the connectivity of Guerrero to the Indians and how he was lost for nothing is often forgotten.

Guerrero went on to an excellent 5-all-star year, 12 year stint in LA.  

If you asked 10 objectve fans for other teams to look at these 10 trades, maybe 5 of them would say this is the worst trade in Cleveland history as we got nothing back for a 5-time all-star

5. Shoeless Joe Jackson for Ed Klepfer, Braggo Rotha, Larry Chappell and $31,500

There wasn't a lot to like about this deal from the get-go.  Jackson went on to play 6 great seasons for the White Sox before he was kicked out of baseball.  The ironic thing was that if Jackson had stayed with Cleveland the White Sox would not have won the pennant in 1919 as Cleveland finished 2nd and likely would have won the league if Jackson had stayed with them.  Whether that would have averted the bribing scandal I don't know but the Jackson-less Cleveland team still won the 2020 WS championship, although none of the guys we received for Jackson made a significant contribution.  But to think what might have been had Jackson stayed with Cleveland!  Things that make you go hmmmm.

6. Jeremy Burnitz for Kevin Seitzer

Now this is the type of deal I would have liked to see the Indians/Guardians make, in reverse.  Seitzer was an excellent bench piece.   Burnitz was just starting his career, a career that would lead to him hitting 315 ML HRs, 9 more than Sexson.  I had forgotten that.  Not a good deal and. like Phillips and Giles, one we had to be reminded of year, after year, after year.

7. Richie Sexson, Marco Scutaro and Paul Rigdon for Jason Bere, Bob Wickman and Steve Woodard

Sexson, like Giles, was just coming into his prime.  Scutaro, though he never played for the Brewers, had a good ML career.  Bere and Woodard did little in Cleveland.  As Sexson was mashing 306 HRs, mostly elsewhere, the only thing that saved this trade from being higher on the list was Wickman recording almost 150 nerve-wracking saves over his time in Cleveland, includng leading the league one year with 45.  People can argue that this was not a terrible trade of the ilk that would put it on this list.  Maybe so but it certainly was not a good traded for Cleveland.

8. Victor Martinez for Nick Hagadone, Justin Masterson and Bryan Price

To be fair, Martinez was out the door at the end of the season and Cleveland wasn't paying him what he could get in free agency.  So we got what we could for him but it was extra pieces who never helped this club get over the next hump.  But, as you can see, it is getting harder to find bad trades.

9. Jay Bell for Felix Fermin and Denny Gonzalez

If Bell couldn't have played SS this would not have been that bad of a trade as his production at 3rd or 2nd base, more offensive positions, would have looked not as good.  But as a SS, he had it all over Fermin.  In a sense, however, this trade is almost negated as Fermin netted us Vizquel.  You know, 5 degrees of Rocky Colavito and all.

10. Junior Caminero for Tobias Myers

Just setting a placeholder for this one.

Historical Look At Indians/Guardians Trades - Part 2: Trades That Turned Out Positively

 Trades are best judged years down the road, right?  Looking at a trade at the time it is made, however, allows the fans to see if their view of present value of the players involved appears equal.

Today we are going to look at the long-term outcome of 10 trades the Indians/Guardians made that, eventually, favored Cleveland.    I'll also go back deep into my memory banks (or get someone's opinion off the internet) of what the thoughts about the trade were at the time the trade was made.

To start out, let's define 'great' as one that changes the trajectory of the franchise.  With that in mind, here is my list:

1. Bartolo Colon and Tim Drew for Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips and Lee Stevens

If there is a more positive trade in Cleveland baseball history than this one I would like someone to show it to me.   If we hadn't given away Brandon Phillips (see upcoming post on the worst trades in Cleveland history) this steal would have been even more of a steal.  This trade is the absolute definition of one that changed our franchise's trajectory.  You just don't pump this much talent into an organization without it having a dramatic effect.  This one did and, to me, ranks as the best in franchise hsotyr

2. Mike Clevinger and Greg Allen for Joey Cantillo, Gabriel Arias, Own Miller, Josh Naylor, Austin Hedges and Cal Quantrill

Maybe the second greatest trade in Indians/Guardians history, depending on how Cantillo and Arias pan out.  I know that trade is saying a lot but when you look at what happened to Clevinger after this trade you may get where I am coming from.   When you consider the contributions so far from the guys we received this is a good trade for Cleveland as Quantrill replaced Clevinger making the rest of the return gravy.  While Hedges and Miller were not great they were OK.  Arguably we don't finish where we did last year without Naylor.  Plus, as I said, Arias and Cantillo who remain among the Guardians' top prospects and who will, hopefully, contribute to the run to the playoffs this year.  If Cantillo turns out like Hentges or is a left-handed Quantrill and Arias is a Gimenez clone, this clearly becomes a franchise-changing trade.

3. Corey Kluber for Jake Westbrook

This was a headscratcher at the time.  Not that Westbrook was great but Kluber just looked to have Civale-upside.  I just didn't see the attraction.  However, in terms of franchise trajectory-changing, few trades have had as much impact as this trade, even some that brought back more star players.

4. Joe Carter for Sandy Alomar Jr., Carlos Baerga and Chris James

Not in the caliber of 1. and 2. simply because of Baerga's early career flameout.  I mean, we were talking about Baerga, early in his career, doing things that only Rogers Hornsby had ever done.  But while I love this trade because it brought us two star players in exchange for one, it wasn't as franchise-changing as the ones above.

5. Sad Same Jones, Fred Thomas and cash for Tris Speaker

This is an old one but falls into the cateogry of altering the franchise's trajectory.  The Indians were a perennial loser before Speaker arrived but, sparked by his arrival the Indians became a winning team and Speaker became one of the best Cleveland players ever.

6.  Eddie Taubensee and Willie Blair for Kenny Lofton

Again, in the vein of franchise-altering, this trade put a cherry on the top of the lineup (no pun intended) that drove the Indians to AL dominance in the late 90s.  He was beyond the prototypical leadoff hitter and centerfielder, showing some power and a lot of speed with good, although not great, defense.  He was the gasoline that made the engine go, the straw that stirred the drink or any other phrase you want to conjure up.  The price, Taubensee and Blair, looked small at the time and, with time, became even smaller.

7. Felix Fermin and Reggie Jefferson for Omar Vizquel 

I was living in St. Louis at the time and I could see the resemblance to the flair and fielding prowess Vizquel had when compared to Ozzie Smith.   He was a defensive upgrade over Fermin although a questinoable offensive upgrade.  But was Vizquel and his Gold Glove defense worth Fermin AND Jefferson?   All you had to do was see him play a few times to know the answer was 'yes'.  This one looked like a win at the time but as Vizquel became a more proficient hitter and a great fit in the Indians' lineup and clubhouse, it became a steal.  

8. Joe Haynes, Ed Llieman and Eddie Robinson for Mickey Vernon and Early Wynn

Again, the key is franchise-trajectory altering.   It was supposed to be a REAL steal but Micky Vernon did not provide the production the Indians wanted.  Wynn, who was a big part of the trade but NOT the centerpiece, turned out to be a huge part of the Indians' team, leading to his HOF induction.

9. Bris Lord for Shoeless Joe Jackson

Jackson was a minor league player when this trade was made, Jackson was still in the minors and Lord was a decent hitter for Cleveland.  He came up at the end of the season for Cleveland.  Jackson hit .375 in 6 years with Cleveland and would be in the HOF except for the Black Sox scandal.  

10. Shin Soo Choo for Trevor Bauer, Bryan Shaw Matt Albers and Drew Stubbs

People will disput this but it was a great trade.  Choo was a really good hitting OFer and an all-star caliber player, but Bauer was an ace-caliber pitcher who would end up pitching well and winning the 2020 Cy Young award.  He had his quirks and his off-field issues are going to tarnish his reputation for the rest of his life and any big league career he might have left, straight up for Choo it was a steal for the Indians.  Throw in reliable Bryan Shaw who was a mainstay in the Cleveland bullpens of the 2010s and this was a franchise-altering trade.  As with Brandon Phillips, we will see Trevor Bauer again in the worst Cleveland trades.

Historical Look at Indians/Guardians Trades - Part 1 - Trades That Appeared Bad But Weren't

 As we approach spring training let's take a little time to look at the trading history of our club.    Trades can really be put in 4 catgories, when looked at in the longest term possible.   

• Good Trades
• Bad Trades
• Trades that looked good/even/bad at the time they were made but have changed long-term.

The 4th category, even trades, is one we won't be exploring in this series as they are, well, boring.  

Realize that my knowledge of older trades is not that great so I might miss some before the 1980s.  Also, if I had been able to spend more time I am sure I would have remembered/dug up more trades that fell into one of these 3 categories.

In this post we will examine 5 trades that looked bad or even initially but have changed for the better long-term.

1. CC Sabathia for Rob Bryson, Zach Jackson, Matt LaPorta and a PTBNL who turned out to be Michael Brantley.

Looked bad at the time as the Brewers REALLY wanted Sabathia for his current ability and draft pick compensation that winter and all they gave back with a power bat-only guy (LaPorta), a middle reliever (Jackson), a middling prospect (Bryson) and the PTBNL.   As we all know Brantley's career in Cleveland more than offset the loss of 1/2 season of Sabathia (we all knew he was signing with the Yankees that winter).  But, at the time, it looked like we had the Brewers over the barrel and accepted magic beans for an ace.

2. Cliff Lee (1.5 years left on his contract) and Ben Francisco to Phillies for Jason Knapp, Jason Donald, Lou Marson and Carlos Carrasco

At the time this looked like robbery for the Phillies.  Lee wasn't just a summer rental and Francisco had a little helium.  Meanwhile, Cleveland got back a utility infielder (Donald), a backup catcher (Marson), a good prospect (Knapp) and an enigmatic prospect (Carrasco).  In fact, the Phillies were so frustrated with Carrasco's development that one of their people was quoted as saying "He's Cleveland's problem now."

Carrasco, of course, saved this trade but it wasn't without pain.  He just didn't pitch well early in his career and was even tried as closer which was a disaster.  Eventuall he settled down with a breakout year in 2014.   So, while this trade, like the Sabathia trade, looked really bad for a team that needed to win every veteran for prospect trade, it was saved from disaster by Carrasco's development that parts of 4 seasons in the majors to accomplish.  

Talk about a long-term play?  Geez!!!

3.Sam McDowell for Gaylord Perry and Frank Duffy

This was more of an even trade that turned out better than expected.   The thing that made this look bad on the surface was that he was a favorite in Cleveland AND a fireballer.  We traded McDowell after his age 28 season for Perry after his age 32 season.  Perry (and his 'substance abuse (on the baseball) problem, that is) got a rebirth in Cleveland while McDowell never panned out in SF, probably at least in part due to a substance abuse problem of a different kind. Plus we got serviceable shortstop Frank Duffy who, in a relatively deadball era, was a very functional SS for us for 5+ years.  So what we thought might have been a trade of starters where San Francisco got the edge (see addition of Duffy as evidence) it turned out to be totally the opposite.

4. Larry Doby for Tito Francona

I almost forgot about this one.  Francona was a bench player in Chicago and Detroit the previous year and Doby was, well, a legend in the making in Cleveland even though he was 33 at the time.  Francona came over and did nothing but hit .363, missing the batting title due to falling 34 ABs short, starting a run of a few years where he was one of the best players on the Cleveland team.   Doby had only 113 more ABs in his ML career and even though he was traded twice by Cleveland and, as funny as it is, twice for Tito Francona.  

5. Corey Kluber for Emmanuel Clase and Delino DeShields

Billed, and properly so, as a salary dump by Cleveland, this trade also was probably influenced by how hard Kluber had been ridden by Terry Francona, especially during the 2016 season.   It was very likely that Kluber wasn't going to be worth the salary he was going to make in 2020 but to only get a reliever of questionable future and a questionable talent in DeShields for him was infuriating at the time.  When you are in Cleveland and you trade a 2-time Cy Young award winner who doesn't APPEAR to be injured, you expect more in return.  Well, the rest is history, Kluber pitched one inning before he got hurt in 2020 and even though he has had some limited success since then, no one in Cleveland would take back this trade now, even though I don't think any Cleveland fan liked this at all at the time.  For me, I knew that trades like this stocked future rosters and I just didn't see it helping future Cleveland teams.  Obviously, I was wrong.

Spring training battles

 My gut feeling is that, across baseball, there will be significantly fewer battles for roster positions this spring.  It just seems like, all the way down to veteran minor league invitees, there are very few open spots on most teams that are in a position to compete this year, they have been aggressive all the way down to their 26th roster spot.  I could be wrong, way wrong, but this is what my gut is telling me.

Nowhere is this more true, I think, than Cleveland, at least with the present configuration of the roster.  

But, just for grins, let's look at the 26 and see where these battles for opening day roster spots could possibly develop during ST.  This exercise will not consider injuries or poor performances although it will mention 'next man up' situations in case those unfortunate things happen.

Starting Pitchers (5) - 

Situation: All set 

• Starters: 
• Beiber 
• McKenzie
• Quantrill
• Plesac
• Civale
• Next man up (in order): Pilkington, Curry, Gaddis, Allen, Battenfield

Bullpen (8)

Situation: May need one:

• Closer: Clase
• Setup men: Stephan, Karnchak, Hentges
• Middle relievers/longmen: Sandlin, De Los Santos, Morgan
• Need (1).  Choose from
• Morris (most likely)
• Curry
• Gaddis
• Herrin
• Free agent signing (will require DFA of someone on 40-man roster)
• Next man up (minor league free agent signing, Mikolajchak, Misiasek, Enight*, Kelly*) - may require DFA of someone on current roster.

* - assumes they are returned from Rule 5 draft

Catcher (2)

Situation: Have to select a backup

• Starter: Zunino
• Backup (pick one)
• Lavastida (most likely)
• Naylor
• Minor league signing (likely will require DFA of someone on roster
• Gallagher (most likely)
• Viloria 
• Fry
• Next man up (those who do not open the season with the ML team)

Infielders (7)

Situation - all set

• First baseDH - Naylor, Bell
• Second base: Gimenez
• Shortstop: Rosario
• Third Base: Ramirez
• Utility: Arias (1B/2B/SS/3B/LF)
• Utility #2 - Freeman (2B/SS)
• Nest men up
• Rocchio
• Tena
• Martinez
• Fry (1B/LF/C)
• Noel (1B/LF/3B)

Outfielder (4)

• LF - Swan
• CF - Straw
• RF - Gonzalez
• Utility: Brennan
• Next men up
• Benson
• Palacios
• Valera

SUMMARY

In mapping this out we may need to make a decision on our last member of the bullpen, our backup catcher and our #2 utility infielder.   Morris (bullpen) and Freeman (utility infielder #2) have the inside track to those positions right now.  Backup catch is up for grabs but if Lavastida or Naylor have good springs it will likely be one of them.  If not, then we would have to add Gallagher, Viloria or even Fry.

So, in reality, although there is competition for 3 of the 26 man roster spots, the only one that doesn't have a clear front runner is backup catcher.  One real spot up for grabs.   Not bad for entering ST.

Now for our guys to just stay healthy and perform......

Thoughts for A Sunday -

 First, thoughts and prayers go out to the families and friends of the shooting victims in Monterery Park, CA.   I hardly ever go outside the lines of sports and usually stay firmly inside the realm of Guardians' baseball.  However, human tragedy strikes every day and it saddens me.  When that tragedy is created by human beings it is even more heartbreaking.  Prayers that we all be more accepting of everyone and that violence like this can end by that acceptance and the idea that helping takes less energy than hurting..

While, after this, it is hard to talk about baseball, let's dive in:

• From MLB trade rumors in a post about the Rockies: "The most significant move of the offseason was the surprising acquisition of young left-handed power hitter Nolan Jones for infield prospect Juan Brito back in November.".   Hmmm.  preach on, MLBTR.   Surprising indeed and a waste of a resource (Jones).   
• Along the same lines, Francona in an interview yesterday: “We have to be careful with our decisions,” said Francona. “We may hang on to guys longer than fans or you guys (the media) would like us to. But we have to be sure. We can’t out-spend our mistakes, so we try not to make them. It’s not the easiest thing to do.”  Let me start by saying that I get it.  What Francona says is the painful truth.  We can't give guys away without knowing that there is very little, if any, chance they will get better.  Zimmer, Chang, Miller, Mercado, Clement, Daniel Johnson etc. have gotten their chances and didn't run with them.  It is maddening to have watched these guys flail around as long as they did.   Still, looking at his statement how does that mesh with the Nolan Jones trade?  The truth is it doesn't and so I don't understand this trade, especially bringing back a very young player who had to be rostered that the Rockies likely would have left exposed to the Rule 5 and who will likely run out of minor league options before he is ready to stay in the majors.
• Just a follow-up on my mock draft post.  For the players I proposed to replace the ones the Guardians selected, here are their MLB Pipeline ranks.
• Daniel Susac - #4 for Oakland.  Rated right behind Zack Gelof (#94 overall, just ahead of Tanner Bibee) and right ahead of Kyle Muller, the headliner obtained from Atlanta in the Sean Murphy trade. [NOTE: Guardians drafted Chase DeLauter]
• Cayden Wallace - #3 for Kansas City, a couple of spots behind Gavin Cross who was #72 overall. [Note: Guardians drafted Justin Campbell]
• Jud Fabian - #22 Baltimore [NOTE: Guardians drafted Parker Messick]
• Jonathon Cannon - #11 White Sox [NOTE: Guardians drafted Joe Lampe]
• Dominic Keegan - #23  Tampa Bay [NOTE: Guardians drafted Nate Furman]
• Noah Dean - Not ranked in Red Sox top 30 [NOTE: Guardians drafted Guy Lipscomb]
• David Sandlin - Not ranked in Royals top 30 [NOTE: Guardians drafted Jacob Zibin]

 Not a lot we can make of this right now but the initial propsect rankings show that Susac and Wallace were quality picks, and Fabian Cannon and Keegan were on the radar.  To be fair, the guys the Guardians drafted are also on the top prosepct radar with DeLauter (#7), Campbell (#12), Messick (#24), , Zibin (#27), and Lampe (#29) making a strong Guardians top 30.

• FanGraphs published their Guardians top 50 prospects.  I think last year they had Steven Kwan rated much higher than the rest of us at #3.  Highlights of this year's ranking, which included our most recent international free agents, were:
• Logan Allen at #4.  They don't seem to find his diminished velocity and poor results at AAA to be that important
• Juan Brito at #12 - They don't seem to take into consideration his long development path for a guy on the 40-man.
• Jacob Zibin at #19 
• Davis Sharpe at #22 - Interesting. They had him at #22 last year so they must really like him.

The whole ranking system is pretty interesting for them.   I love getting expert opinions that I can compare to my non-expert opinions.

2022 Draft Recap and Mock Draft - Part 2 - The Actual Mock Draft and Draft Recap

 Before we go any further I have to disclaim something.  I stink at Guardian mock baseball drafts.  I am so bad at it that if I could find one person who is worse than me it would make me happy because then I would know I am not the worst, like I think I am.

I have had my blind-squirrel-finds-acorn moments (2008, Lance Lynn instead of Lonnie Chisenhall) but, more often than not it was more like Ty Hensley or Victor Roache instead of Tyler Naquin or my favorite, Matt Barnes instead of Francisco Lindor.

So, when it comes to mock drafts, I am the LAST person you should be listening to.

In spite of that, here goes, another mock draft that I can put into the time capsule and look back at it and laugh, hopefully.

Guardians pick***My mock draft pick

Chase Delauter OF***Daniel Susac, C

Comments: Look, DeLauter has so many negatives associated with his 2022 season it would not have surprised me if he fell completely out of the first round.   We basically have Naylor and Lavastida and then no other catching prospects in the organization between them and rookie/low A ball.  Not only was Susac a better choice in terms of his current value/easily realized potential, he was an organizational fit.   

Justin Cambell RHP***Cayden Wallace 3B

Comments: Clearly this pick is a great pick by the Guardians if Campbell goes all Tanner Bibee/Shane Bieber.   But, as said in my last post, Bieber in the 4th rund was perfect.  Campbell in the competitive balance round is a stretch.  Wallace fills an organizational need (power hitter).   Which one has the best chance to flame out and not even make the majors?  Clearly, Wallace.  But an organization that drafted 19 pitchers in 2021 doesn't need to draft another guy of the same ilk this high in 2022.  While they might be able to turn Campbell the way they turned Bibee, they have a glut of pitching prospects.  So, until the Guardians show that they can make SMART trades with their duplicate prospects and not get ripped off, having multiple prospects of the same type is a luxury that a small market club can't have.  Thus Wallace.

Parkes Messick LHP***Jud Fabian OF

Comments: So, here is my first stretch pick.  I could have easily gone for Jacob Melton or Brock Jones if I wanted a college outfielder.  They are better prospects but I like Fabian's RH bat.and the fact that I think there is much more in his tank than the other two guys.  A stretch?  To be sure but Messick is a soft-tossing lefty.  We have an organizational need for both lefty starting pitchers and RH hitting outfielders.  It was my thought that we go with the outfielder.

Joe Lampe OF***Jonathon Cannon RHP

Comments: So, in my mock draft we finally get a pitcher here.  Cannon has good control and a heavy fastball.   In our pitching factory I think he becomes a star.  Lampe is an incredible overdraft here.  He doesn't have power or enough speed or totally off-the charts defensive ability in CF.  What he does have is good tools across the board and good OB/bat-to-ball skills.  To draft a guy at this point thinking you can teach him other things down the road to make him more than an extra player (See Corey Dickerson) is a mistake when there were better players on the board.    Lampe was selected, in my opinion, simply because he was the best player available who fit the Guardians 2022 mold for what an outfielder should be.  That is not a good reason to draft someone this high.  Maybe where they drafted Kwan, Tom and, this draft, Lipscomb, but not this early.  Lampe is the most likely to flame out from this draft without ever making the majors.

Nate Furman 2B***Dominic Keegan C

Comments:  Another draft pick who looks like he fit the current mold of guys the Guardians treasure, OB skill guys, there is a good chance Furman was the best available player who fit that mold.   That being said, a better player who fit a NEED (power) in the organization was Keegan.  Yes, he may not end up as a catcher but he will likely move quickly as a hitter.  Think Yainer Diaz.  

Guy Lipscomb OF***Noah Dean LHP

Comments: If you had selected Lipscomb in the 10th round I would have hailed that pick.   A reasonable bonus for a flyer who sits in the wheelhouse of our current OF development strengths.  But Dean is a much better prospect on paper.   His future home is probably in the bullpen but we have an organizational hole for bullpen lefties and Dean would have plugged that hole somewhat and been a much better value at this pick.

Dylan DeLucia RHP***Dylan DeLucia RHP

Comments: In looking over the scouting report I see a guy without a high ceiling but with an easily obtainable floor, especially in our pitching factory.

Javier Santos RHP***Javier Santos RHP

We are down in the 200s of the 2022 draft so now it IS more about who you like than who is a great prospect.  Looking at Santos I see what the Guardians like. In my opinion they are swinging for the fences here as Santos could flame out where a more polished 1-2 pitch college pitcher (e.g., James Karinchak) who had a quick path to being a ML reliever can always be had at this point.  Still, I trust that what they see in Santos was worth being selected at this point.  

Jackson Humphries RHP***Jackson Humphries, RHP

 Comments: Again, we are in the 200s and the Guardians get good value with this pick.  Santos and Humphries are long-term plays after all the college pitchers we drafted in 2021, which makes perfect sense if you want to keep the flow coming as you have time to develop guys like Humphries and Santos when your ML roster will already be stacked, hopefully for years, with the fruits of the 2020 and 2021 drafts in addition to what we already have on the ML roster.

Austin Peterson, RHP***Austin Peterson, RHP

Comments: I trust the Guardians that they can find something in this guy.  He is the prototypical guy who comes in to 'the factory' and comes out a useable major league pitcher.

Jacob Zibin, RHP***David Sandlin RHP

Comments: Sorry, I just can't draft Zibin.  I don't get a good feeling about him.   It is just me, to be sure, as who wouldn't want a 3rd round talent in the 10th round?  But his $1.2 million bonus cost us close to $2 millon as most of this was over our draft budget and we had to pay a penalty.   Sandlin was not an easy signing ($400,000 bonus) but he is closer to the majors and I perceive that he may be taking professional baseball more seriously than Zibin is.  Again, just my gut feeling but I would love to see videos of Zibin getting ready for ST.  Haven't see those yet, although I have seen Santos and others post videos.  

Rounds 11-20

Some Pitchers***More pitchers

I can't fault the Guardians for these picks.   They draft guys who fit their pattern and I think, after the 10th round, that is a good idea.  My only contention is that they are MUCH more likely, based on my esperience with them, to get a good pitching prospect in these rounds than a good hitting prospect.   With that in mind, I would have rather they drafted 10 pitchers here  (or 8-9 pitchers and 1-2 catchers) instead of the mix they selected.  But, as I established above, what do I know?

2022 Amateur Draft Recap and Mock Draft - Part 1 - Philosophical Arguments

 OK, the weather across much of the country really stinks right now.   It's winter.  Duh!

Still, let's go back to July when the sun was bright and the temperatures were warm.   Let's go back to the Guardians' 2022 amateur draft.  

First, let's talk about draft strategy.  My impression is that the Guardians, in all prospect acquistions, employ a pretty tight policy.   That is, the idea of acquiring the best available prospect in the draft does not appear to be the goal.  

• In 2021 no one can convince me that the best available draft prospect was a pitcher 19 out of our 21 selections.
• In 2022 it looks like we were more interested in drafting Kwan/Brennan clones and more college pitchability pitchers than we were in drafting the best available prospect at each of our draft slots.

Adding to this that our international signees tend to go high end with position players only and not pitchers as we choose to get our pitchers from college and through the draft.  

So it appears they have a plan and stuck to it.  

The problem with having a plan, to paraphrase Mike Tyson, is it's all great until some guy hits you with a straight right to your dental work.  

The draft is so fluid it would be difficult to convince me that your plan is so adaptable that it can handle these unexpected twists and turns.  In fact, here is my guess at what the likelihood is of a team with a strict plan actually hitting that plan.  In parentheses next to it is the chances of a team taking the best available player hitting that mark.

Ruund 1: 90% (80%)

Round 2: 75% (85%)

Round 3:50% (80%)

Round 4:40% (70%)

Round 5:30% (50%)

Round 6: 40% (40%)

Round 7: 50% (30%)

Round 8: 50% (30%)

Round 9: 30% (30%)

Round 10: 20% (30%)

Rounds 11-20: 50% (30%)

Based on some old research I did here is how this translates into the ABILITY  of the team with the strict plan to draft the best prospect available at that slot:  This analysis DOES NOT count guys who are rated highly by have draft demands that are unreasonable.  Thus, we are only looking at the best prospect available who, in theory, would have been drafted near the spot and was still available.

Round 1 - Prospect drafted is worse by 4-7 spots than the best available player

Ruund 2 - Prospect drafted is worse by 10 spots than the best available player 

Round 3:  20 spots lower

Round 4:  30 spots lower

Round 5:  75 spots lower

Round 6:  75 spots lower

Round 7: 30 spots lower

Round 8:  similar talent level to the best prospect available

Round 9:  similar

Round 10: similar

Rounds 11-20: similar 

The upshot of these numbers is that a team that is drafting with a strict plan might not be able to get the best players (read: Star potential) early.  However, if this plan is not what other teams are using, as you get later in the draft you are more likely to get a player your development system can turn into a major leaguer of some ilk.  So you Ser buy more likely to get a player later in the draft that has a chance to play in your system..  Sometimes you get a Mason Hickman.   Sometimes you get a Steven Kwan.  Sometimes you get a Ka'ai Tom.  But at least, in the later rounds, you get a better chance (see 2021 draft).

However, what you seldom get if you draft to a plan is a Francisco Lindor. 

Next we will talk about the rubber meeting the road stuff.  Who the Guardians drafted with their plan and who I would have drafted looking mostly at the best available player with a little need thrown in.

Let's Be Clear - We need a second lefty reliever

 Look, our rotation is solid, although not, at the moment, spectacular at the back end.  Injuries and bad performances can happen, to be sure  Still, I would go into the season with this rotation and the AAA backup plans of Pilkington, Battenfield, Gaddis, Curry and Logan Allen.

I would also go into the season with the current right-handed relievers we have, Clase, Stephan, Karinchak, De Los Santos, Morgan and Sandlin.   Again, injuries and bad performances happen but I am still comfortable with a backup plan of Battenfield, Curry and Gaddis with the likes of Enright, Kelly and Mikolajchak and whatever minor league free agents we sign before the season starts.

But where I am NOT OK is going into the season with Hentges as my only lefty in the bullpen with the backup plan being some combination of Herrin, Pilkington, Allen and Misiasek.  

We need a second, veteran lefty.   We would have had it with Soto but we whiffed on that one.   There are still lefties out there but the better ones (Chafin, Moore) are going to command $10 million for two years or $6 million for one year.  I am thinking that is out of our price range.

I don't know what the answer is but we cannot go into the season with the throw-it-against-the-wall-and-see-what-sticks mentality.   Sam Hentges' arm is too valuable to overuse him at all and ESPECIALLY not early.  

We need a second, lefty option that Francona trusts and that comes from signing (preferred) or trading for a veteran bullpen lefty.   

How we get that, I don't know.  But if we enter spring training with what we have on the left side of the bullpen, it may get ugly early.   And we may have to pay MUCH more for that lefty, in terms of trading prospects, than what it would cost us to sign one right now.

Looking at the minors we don't have much coming up in terms of dominant bullpen lefties.  Giving Moore or, better, Chafin, a 2 yeare deal above what I think a reliever is worth but in the top end of the range of what the market will bear for that asset, is the only way I see even having a CHANCE to go into spring training with any security at all on the left side.  

To be clear, Hentges and, say, Chafin with a backup plan of Pilkington, Herrin, Allen and Misiasek is the best I can imagine a team having.  But without Chafin, this becomes a dangerous situation for Hentges and the team.

Salute to my favorite player

 As a kid growing up you latch onto certain players. 

It was easy to be a Mickey Mantle fan or a Bob Gibson fan.  These guys were legendary players.  But I was an Indians fan through and through.  So I had to have my favorite player be an Indian, right?  You know, it probably would have been Rocky Colavito but he was traded before I latched onto a favorite player.  I was left-handed and owned a Bobby Shantz glove but, as I said, my heart was with the Indians.  So, for some reason, maybe because he was one of their better players, maybe because he was left-handed, too, I latched onto Tito Francona as my favorite baseball player.

 As I have said before I listened to Indians games on the radio and when he was traded to St. Louis I was able, after dark, to listen to him on one of the most powerful radio stations at the time, KMOX.  I followed his career through Baseball America and the newspaper, including his 5 hit game with Oakland.

There is a great article about his career that you can find here and his wiki page here  Looking at his career stats (Tito Francona Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Rookie Status & More | Baseball-Reference.com ) it strikes me that he often walked more than he struck out but still hit for power.  He lost the batting title in 1959 as he hit .363 but only had 399 ABs, losing to Harvey Kuenn, his future teammate (arrrght, Rocky Colavito trade) because he didn't have enough ABs.  He would have been 1 AB short except that the rules changes in 1957 making him 34 ABs short due to missing time with a leg injury.

It is hard to believe that his son is now the manager of Cleveland's baseball team and he has given us even more joy at being an Indians/Guardians fan than what I got rooting for his dad.

Still, here we are, over 60 years later and I can honestly say that my favorite baseball player ever is Tito Francona.  He brightened the life of this Cleveland area kid and, even all these years later, those memories still brighten the hallways of my mind.

Go Guardians!

Non-baseball post: CJ Stroud - nice knowing you

 As the deadline approaches for CJ Stroud to declare for the NFL Draft, I am getting nervous.

Schools like Ohio State, ones that get high quality recruits, need to give those guys a chance and in a reasonable time.

The development path for a star player generally goes something like this: play a little as a freshman, get in the rotation as a sophomore, ball out as a junior, head off to the NFL.  Fringe NFL players will likely stay for their senior years but the big stars...the system is set for them to be gone in 3 years.

So you recruit for them being gone.  You bring in high level recruits who you groom to play in a certain year.

But what happens if that star player decides he wants to stay an extra year?

This creates a backup and guys who THOUGHT they were going to get to play as sophomores or juniors now wind up sitting another year.

Enter the transfer portal.

That is why this CJ Stroud thing is worrisome.  Kyle McCord is set to start this coming year.  But what happens if CJ Stroud decides to come back like Chris Olave did last year?  It creates a logjam where McCord KNOWS he won't be playing for another year...his junior year.  

But what can a college coach do?  His job is to win.  Do we expect Ryan Day to say "Hey, CJ, I love you man but you staying an extra year could cause me to lose McCord and Brown and we can't afford that long term."  Of course not.  Clearly this team would have an easier path to success with Stroud as their QB.   What would the alumni/fans want?  The certainty of Stroud or the uncertainty but extreme potential of McCord?  Ditto for the fans who fill the stadiums.  Ditto for the image of the university and of the football team which, to some extent, drives future recruiting.

Everybody who matters wants a winner and Stroud provides more certainty of a winner.

But, to me, that is NOT what matters most.   What matters most is to keep your 5- and 4-star recruits and give them their shot.  

There has to be a better way for sustained success of a college football program than screwing over your recruits by making them sit an extra year.

I think it is time for Day to tell CJ, "Thanks for your service.  Have a great NFL career".  It's Kyle McCord time and college coaches making hundreds of thousands of dollars a year with the resources that Ohio State has should be able to get the team back to the playoffs and to beat Michigan while giving the reigns to the more uncertain but uber-talented McCord.

So, CJ, time to move on.  We love you and have enjoyed wathcing you play.  Be sure to come back and see us.

Thoughts for a Sunday - Post Friday 13th edition

TALKING GUARDIANS BASEBALL IN JANUARY IS A THING!

Guardians fans are truly excited and wanting to talk about what tweaks, T-W-E-A-K-S, the Guardians need to make to their roster to be able to solidify their position as a true post-season contender.  

Ahhhh, much better than when I was growing up when at this time of the year you were hoping that some of these suspects turned into prospects.

INTERNATONAL SIGNING DAY

Today is the day you can officially sign amateur international free agents.  This process has become sort of anticlimactic as these guys appear to already be training at Guardians facilities, making this just the official pen-to-paper of what is a foregone conclusion.

Very little, if any, last minute seismic movement compared to, say, NCAA football signing day.  Plus, as these guys are now professionals signed to binding contracts, no transfer portal drama, either.

The Guardians have taken a spread-the-wealth philosophy in the past on this day.  That is, they believe in signing (and uber-developing) a bunch of second- and third-tier international prospects instead of putting all their eggs in one basket by signing a top 5 (or even 10) guy.  It has worked well for them recently as the past few years have seen some of our 2017 and 2018 signees starting to pop up at the top of our top 30 prospects.  They appear to have found the secret sauce on which of these lower tier players to sign and how to develop them. 

However, this does bring up the most important point.  How do you rate a class when it takes 5-6 years for those guys to develop to a level that they could be considered for spots on the ML 26?

[GETTING UP ON SOAP BOX NOW]

That is why we need to change the Rule 5 rules for guys who sign their first contract before they are 18 years old.  They simply don't have enough time to develop and the team that signs and develops these guys need more of a fair shot.  BTW, I am also a proponent of an international draft with bonus pool caps like the US/Canadian amateur draft does.

[GETTING DOWN OFF OF SOAP BOX NOW]

Classy move by Jose Ramirez to meet all our 2023 signees (actually from the 2022 signing period?!?!) and have a photo op with them, BTW.

Final thought on international amateur signings.  That old investing disclaimer that goes something like 'past performance does not guarantee future success' cannot apply here.  For teams like the Guardians we need the successes of 2017/18 to continue.  While we won't know with this class of 2023 whether they have for several years, we NEED for them to.  So keep the digits at the end of your arms crossed.

RECENT SIGNINGS 

Looking over the free agent signings this week, you can easily make the case of how the Guardians may have enjoyed having some of these guys on the team this coming season but didn't need them to be.  Let's take a look:

Trey Mancini - Hey, without of three things (hopeful emergence of Oscar Gonzalez, signing of Josh Bell, presence of prototypical Guardians outfield prospect Will Brennan) you might have put Mancini or someone like him in the NEED category.  But at $14 million plus incentives over two years, the Guardians Way (i.e., play the kids and save money where you can) would not support signing him.

Nelson Cruz - Reported as a $1 million signing you can easily make the case that the Guardians could have afforded that.  However, when you consider the bodies we have now and that Francona likes to 'rest' guys at DH, it shows that even at this extreme bargain price, you don't sign Cruz, who really doesn't have any defensive flexibility.  If you ever want a poster child-example of why the position player part of the roster is locked, just look at the fact that Cruz's salary is not far off your fungible 26th man on the roster salary but, still, he is not what the Guardians need right now.

Shintaro Fujinami - Interesting to include a Japanese hurler here but, while he might have found a niche as a shutdown reliever in Japan last year, he probably isn't the sure thing the Guardians need if they are going to add a reliever to their roster.  Perfect signing for a team like Oakland.  Not a needed investment for a team like the Guardians this year.

Andrew McCutchen - Again, a true veteran player who you might think the Guardians could have used as a 4th outfielder on a contending team.  Still, they didn't NEED him so they didn't sign him, especially at the price he was paid.

AJ Pollock - See Andrew McCutchen.

Craig Stammen - Now here is a guy I would have signed, especially on a minor league deal.  But I think he was always headed back to the Padres if he didn't get a good major league deal.  Plus, if you were going to take Stammen why not just bring back Bryan Shaw?

Brandon Belt - See Trey Mancini, but without the OF profile.

Corey Dickerson - See Andrew McCutchen and AJ Pollock, but without the true veteran power presence.

Johny Cueto - We have 5 starters and the cost of Cueto is not, at this point, a needed expense.  Would I be a nice-to-have?  Sure.  But not needed.

Summary: There have been some moves the Guardians, with their ML roster and minor league prospect glut should have made (trade for Gregory Soto comes to mind) but the general sense of this free agent off-season is that the Guardians Way did not lend itself to any more free agent signings than what we have already.  I would still rather have had Jose Abreu in a heartbeat over Josh Bell and traded for Sean Murphy instead of signing Mike Zunino but, aside from those personal preferences, no other guy moved the needle for me this off-season so far, not as someone who knows the limitations of baseball in Cleveland.

Thoughts for a Tuesday - Jan 10th style

 Even though I live in a relatively warm climate now, thoughts of spring training still warm my heart.

My thoughts to Liam Hendricks and his family and prayers for a quick, complete and permanent recovery.

Do you think the Guardians are done signing players?   Do you think they are going to make a trade?  I am voting yes to the former but, given the vibes from their previous efforts this off-season, I think they may just choose to hold their prospects until the deadline.  One thing is for sure, however.   They will need to clear some prospects off this roster, consolidating them for a proven major leaguer or trading them for guys who don't have to be rostered this coming off-season.

I know it is a minor point but when I see some of these guys traded after having been DFA'd and the other team getting a minor leaguer back, I can't help but ask myself why we appear to have gotten nothing for Owen Miller.  Now, that might change if Miller makes the Brewers out of spring training but, still.  If AJ Alexy can get a minor leaguer in a DFA trade, why couldn't Miller?

Wow, what a turn to the Carlos Correa saga.  I would have really liked to see him sign a long-term deal with San Fran.   It seemed to me that in the first half of the year he was not going all out.  Now, I don't know if he was hurt then, or if he was just protecting his body for free agency.  But it would have been great to see what 12 years of guaranteed salary would have done for his effort level.   Clearly he turned it on in the second half, maybe after he made the decision that he wanted to opt out if he could build his numbers.   Not saying that he was dogging it but, if he was, I don't know that his new contract with the Twins will be sufficient for him to go all out all the time as it is likely not to be his last contract. 

Guys are still signing for more money than I would pay them to play for the Guardians.  Fortunately it is not the Guardians who are paying them these salaries.  Aside from Gregory Soto, I don't see, in the Guardians' mentality of cheap, controllable talent that anyone but Soto would have been a fit.

More later.  Have a great day!

Recollections of a lifelong fan

 My first Cleveland baseball recollections were listening to the games on the radio.  My favorite player was Tito Francona and, although I don't really remember his heyday back in 1959 where he hit .361 or even his all-star season, I still liked him.

When he was traded away I remember hiding my transistor radio under my pillow and listening the Harry Carey and Jack Buck broadcasting the Cardinals games on KMOX and hoping that Francona, only a part-time player at that point, would get in the game.

I followed his career as he moved to Oakland and had a 6 hit game, as I remember.  I still have the article from the Plain Dealer somewhere.  

From that point my memories were that of a kid loving his baseball team.  No expectations, no judgement of the front office for their missteps.   Just a kid caring about what went on between the lines and rejoicing at each victory, even if there were always more losses than wins.  

I remember going to old Municipal Stadium which magnified the lack of fans with its cavernous confines.  I specifically remember one game where my brother and I and his friends got there early before the game.  We were out in the upper deck in RF and George Hendrick and Charlie Spikes came to warm up out along the right field line.  When they were done my brother's friend called for Hendrick to throw the ball up to him.  Hendrick obliged and, amazingly threw it right to my brother's friend in the upper deck.   We hung out there and about 15-20 minutes later here comes Hendrick and Spikes to throw a little more.  Realizing they don't have a ball they motion to my brother's friend to throw the ball back down...and he obliges.   After they finish throwing Hendrick motions up to the guy that he is going to throw the ball back to him in, did I mention, the upper deck.  And Hendrick makes another perfect throw to him.  

It is likely that Cleveland lost that game but that memory sticks with me.

Most of the rest of my memories of the Indians/Guardians are from afar.  I would get home to watch them on occasion or catch a game if they were playing close to where I lived.  But, since I haven't lived in Cleveland since 1975, most of my memories come from radio broadcasts and reading about them on the internet. 

Since 1975 I became much more interested in the result.  Still loving the experience and the joy of watching my team, I wanted to get a piece of what fans in other cities were getting...the pride of having a winning team and getting to and maybe winning a WS title.  Startng in the mid-90s I got that and, ever since (thanks in large part to the front office and my favorite player's son) I have what I wanted in the 80s: a winning team with a chance to make it to and maybe win a WS.  Some of my thoughts now are about the minutia that can make or break my team in that effort.

But I constantly am brought back to the joy I get from watching my team play, win or lose.   I love Cleveland's major league team, no matter what they are called because, frankly, they bring me joy.

p.s., It helps to have the Lake County team so close to where I grew up so if I come into town I can catch the stars of the future, too.  And maybe drive down to Akron or Columbus for more baseball..  

Go Guardians!  You were and continue to be a big part of the recreatonal happiness of my life.

Batting Order

 OK, about once a month I want to talk a little more about the batting order.  Now, in Terry Francona's world the battng order appears to be a very touchy-feely thing where the whole appears to be greater than the sum of the parts.  

However, what I am going to suggest leaves out that touchy feely thing and, as such, will likely to be off the beaten path from what Francona and the Guardians will follow.  

But here goes:

Kwan LF

Gimenez 2B

Ramirez 3B

Gonzalez RF

Bell DH

Zunino C

Naylor 1B

Straw CF

Rosario SS

Why, you ask, would I make these changes to the lineup that Francona will likely use:

Kwan

Rosario

Ramirez

Naylor

Bell

Gimenez

Gonzalez

Zunino 

Straw

One 4-letter acronym: GIDP.  For a team that is going to manufacture runs and not have a lot of power, giving up two outs in an AB just won't work.  

Roasrio and Bell grounded into an unacceptable, on this team, number of double plays last year.  Bell had 22 and Rosario 19.  Naylor had 13 and no one else who is coming back had double figures.  So my plan is to 'insulate' guys who hit into DPs by putting guys before them who have low OBP but have some other important abilities like power and speed.   If there is no one on 1B when a DP-prone guy comes up to bat, you are not likely to give up 2 outs n that one AB.

So, if you put stats behind my lineup here is most of my rationale (Player, OBP, GIDP)

Kwan .373 OBP, 9 GIDP

Gimenez .371, 9

Ramirez .355, 5

Gonzalez .327, 6

Bell .362, 22

Zunino .301, 7 (2021 stats)

Naylor .319, 13

Straw .291, 4

Rosario .312. 19

You start out with 3 good OBP guys and go to a 4th guy who doesn't walk much or GIDP often.   Thus, when Bell comes up he likely wouldn't kill a rally with a DP because the damage would have been done before he got there.  There is a chance if he hits 4th that he could come up with first and third and one out and kill that rally.   Gonzalez doesn't ground into many DPs and, rather, strikes out so, for example, if Gonzalez comes up with runners on first and third with one out, he likely would not kill that rally as he will likely not make 2 outs in his AB.  Bottom line, worst case is that Gonzalez leaves the bases as he found them.  So if Bell then comes up with first and third with two outs he can only give up one out in the worst-case scenario in that AB.  No extra outs from him grounding into a DP.  

Same way down the lineup.  Bell is a good OBP guy and Zunino doesn't ground into many DPs.  Naylor does ground into a few but he would come up after Zunino who likely would not be on 1B (low OBP guy). Straw is a low OBP guy so Rosario would likely come up with no one on first and that would give him a chance to more easily beat out an infield hit and set himself up on base for Kwan and Gimenez who don't ground into many DPs.  If Straw ups his OBP he just could try to steal more often to stay out of a Rosario DP grounder.  

Now, you could also do this with the following lineup:

Rosario

Kwan

Ramirez

Gonzalez

Bell

Gimenez

Zunino

Naylor 

Straw

This would be IF Francona is willing to move Kwan to the #2 hole which is where I think he fits best.  Problem is that Rosario is not a good fit at leadoff hitter.  Rosario isn't really a good fit at #2 either as he gets into funks where he chases pitches out of the zone and the aforementioned penchant for GIDP.  Gimenez works well at #6 as he doesn't ground into many DPs and is hitting behind the high OBP Bell and Zunino, who doesn't ground into DPs is behind him, as a buffer between Gimenez and the GIDP guy Naylor.   Again, just like before Straw with his low OBP hits before Rosario, somewhat negating Rosario's GIDP leaning.

Of course, with Bell, maybe he doesn't hit into as many DPs next year due to the anti-shifting rules.  He certainly didn't hit into many earlier in his career.  as he averaged less than 13 between 2017-2019 with a low of 11 in 2019 when he had 118 RBIs.  Still, batting him 5th gives Gonalez some protection which I think would be good for the kid and, if Gonzalez doesn't work out maybe you slide Naylor and his low OBP in the #4 hole and have Bell hit 5th and Gimenez hit 6th followed by Zunino, maybe Brennan and then Straw.   Brennan gives you some good OBP skills near the bottom of the order and, hitting before Straw, wouldn't likely be part of a DP.

Lots of possibilities but the lineup that I think Francona will go with appears to be the worst possible lineup for rally-killing DPs.   When you don't hit a lot of HRs, DPs really will kill you if you are not stealing bases and the lineup I think Francona will use is the worst I can imagne in terms of rally-killing DPs.

Just a thought.

Gregory Soto to Phils. Really?

 It is no secret (unless a guy blogging on the internet expects his posts to be secret) that I think the Guardians should bring in an experienced lefty reliever who could spell Sam Hentges and lessen his regular season load.  It would help if he had some late inning experience, as well, as you can never have too many setup and replacement closer guys, can you?

It was not surprising when I saw that Detroit had traded Gregory Soto today.  It wasn't even surprising to see that they traded him (and utilityman Kody Clemens) to the Phillies.  What was surprising was the return that Soto brought back to the Tigers.

Matt Vierling (OF) - 26 years old (part-time player in 2022 after debuting in 2021 - Rated as Phillies #8 prospect before 2022 by Baseball America.  Had 23 postseason ABs in the Phillies playoff run this past season, going 2-13 with 1 2B and 1 RBI. 

Matt Sands (C) - 26 years old, first time in the majors in 2022

Nick Maton (Utility infielder) - 26 years old - has 216 plate appearances over the last two seasons for Philly.

Not that these guys are terrible prospects, but, really, a backup catcher, a utility man and a part-time outfielder for Soto?  Really?

Plus, the Phillies even cleared a roster spot by getting 2 40-man guys (Soto and Clemens) and giving up 3 40-man guys.  Plus, none of these guys Philly gave up had a clear path to playing time this coming season.  

Clearly, unless they have a bump in performance, none of the 3 guys the Tigers got in this trade will be any more than inexpensive complementary players for a team in a deep rebuild this coming season.  Plus, as complementary players they will be clogging the roster for the next 4 years with little chance of offering any significant change to the Tigers performance over that time.  Again, this is considering that they don't have a significant bump in performance.

Looking at the Guardians roster there are no comparables to Maton, Vierling and Sands.  None. But I can't believe that the Guardians couldn't have put together a package of their 2nd tier prospects that wouldn't have beaten the Phillies package in terms of future projectability.  

The questions is were the Guardians in on Soto and, if so, who did Detroit ask for.  Remember, given that Oakland asked for Daniel Espino and others from the Guardians and ended up with an inferior package from Atlanta/Milwaukee, putting on my conspiracy theory hat I wonder if teams are only willing to deal with the Guardians if they can get a much better haul than they can get anywhere else.  

Now, it is interesting that with 30 saves and 2-11 record Soto was deemed to have pitched at replacement level in 2022.  Don't know how that works but it points out what others have pointed out about the issues using WAR.  

Still, to Cleveland I think we would have been worth at least 2 WAR this season, if not 3, all things considered.  I don't know why Gregory Soto is not wearing a Guardians' uniform tonight.  I just don't.  We had more than enough prospect capital to get him and not hurt our depth.  I don't know the Guardians' FO plan but losing out on guys like Gregory Soto who came pretty cheap is NOT how I would be handling my off-season.

A look at our minor league signings and thoughts going forward.

 Today the Guardians announced the signing of 4 minor league free agents who were offered invites to ML spring training.  Let's take a look:

CAM GALLAGHER 

What he brings: Here is a guy who profiles as a likely replacement for Luke Maile.  The Guardians have said that, if healthy, they expect Zunino to catch the bulk of the games this coming season.   As Gallagher backed up Salvador Perez for years, this makes the backup role in Cleveland perfect.  Add to that the fact that he brings Maile-average offense and defense to the backup role and we lose nothing. 

Impact on the roster: The backukp catcher role is still a bit of a jumble but having Gallagher here does provide the same insurance that Maile provided last year.   In terms of how it impacts the other catchers in the system it depends on how it all sorts out.   Right now we have 3 catchers rostered, Zunino, Naylor and Lavastida AND we have a full-40-man roster.   We also have, in addition to Gallagher, Meibrys Viloria on a minor league deal.   

From where I sit there are are few scenarios to consider:

1. Lavastida's struggles last year were because of his injuries and he looks like a reasonable backup this spring..  If Zunino is healthy and Lavastida is whole this spring, it makes sense for Lavastida to be the backup.  If that happens I doubt Gallagher stays as I am sure he has an opt out if he doesn't make the roster..   Naylor goes to catch every day at Columbus and Viloria becomes his caddy.  The 40-man roster remains untouched as no one is added.

2. Naylor overwhelms his competition this spring and miraculously makes the opening day roster.  In this, the most unlikely scenario, Zunino and Naylor split the catching duties and we work Naylor into the lineup to get him some DH ABs.  Lavastida and Viloria split the cathing duties at Columbus, Gallagher opts out.  

3. Lavastida is not ready, Zunino is healthy and Naylor doesn't overwhelm his competition.  This, the most likely scenario, is where things get sticky.   We have no choice but to add Gallagher to the 40-man as he would make the 26-man.   We are not likely to have 4 catchers on the 40 man given how many unuseable (n 2023 players already are on that roster (Tena, Brito, Martinez, Noel_ so Lavastida becomes in danger of getting traded or DFA'd.   This all would come down to what the organization thinks of Lavastida long-term.  If he an average catcher with above-average offensive and OB skills?  Is what he showed in 2022 what he really is going to be (a AAAA catcher)?  He just turned 24 so he is young and hit very well in 2019 (draft year) and 2021.   

4. Someone gets hurt.  So if Zunino is not ready for openeing day but if it is Luke Mailer situation (10 day DL) we have to determine who starts.  At that point I think Naylor starts and Lavastida backs him up.  If Zunino goes on the 60-day DL, then we have a spot for Gallagher and he and Naylor or Lavastida share the catching duties.

5. We bring in Gary Sanchez as our backup.   I think the signing of Gallagher precludes that.  No way is Gallagher going to AAA to be Naylor's caddy.  Plus, we now have to clear a 40-man roster spot and I just don't see that happening.

In none of these scenarios (one injured catcher, Lavastida not ready) do I see Viloria making this team out of spring training.  Multiple catchers would have to be hurt and, even then, 

ROMAN QUINN

What he brings: He is a switch-hitter, who plays good defense, has speed and takes his walks, all in the Guards wheelhouse for the players they want  He does strikeout a lot which is not in the Guardians wheelhouse right now.

Impact on the roster: Quinn's situation is much less complicated.  As the Guardians (and all other teams) have in the past they fill in their AAA and AA rosters with veterans.  Quinn is just that.  Our AAA roster doesn't have a lot of outfielders so this fit is good.  Plus, if we can stash Quinn in Columbus he provides insurance if we have a disaster in the majors and Valera isn't considered ready.  But, unlike Gallagher, Quinn is just insurance and while he likely makes AAA Columbus' roster this year, it is not out of the question that he could get pushed to AA Akron.

TOUKI TOUSSAINT 

What he brings and his impact on the roster: This year's Enyel De Los Santos wanna be, Toussaint brings ML-ready insurance to Columbus.  He protects in case of injury (on the cheap, that is) by providing a warm body with ML experience and success.  Like many guys before him (Anthony Castro, Yohan Ramirez, Ian Gibault, most recently) he stands a decent chance, if healthy, to get some ML innings this year.   The upside is if they figure out what he needs, having another de los Santos-type reclamation project be uber successful this year can only help.  Worst case is he provides innings at AAA UNLESS we get Enright and Kelly back from the Rule 5, in which case if Toussaint doesn't look good in ST, he might, in an unlikely scenario, get released.

MICHAEL KELLY

What he brings and his impact on the roster: Interestingly, I see Kelly as having a job in Columbus only if we don't get Nic Enright and Kevin Kelly back from the Rule 5.  If we do I don't see Michael Kelly being needed.   He, like many before him, appears just to be an organizational filler who eats innings to save our pitching prospects at AAA or AA.  Wouldn't be surprised to see him released so he can end up pitching in Asia this coming season.

SUMMARY

Well, our signings are starting to get a little more interesting in that it poitns to not going after another FA catcher (Perez, Sanchez) although it does not preclude us from adding a veteran reliever or two, either on ML or minor league deals nor do these signings preclude us from adding some AAA depth in the outfield.  

Random Thoughts for a Tuesday - January 3rd edition

 1. We hear all the time about what the "front office" is doing.  Obviously this is used in connection with your GM and, in the Guardians' case, their president of baseball operations, Chris Antonetti.   

In the business world the front office is the customer-facing division of a business. Interesting, as in baseball the 'customers' are more like other teams and players and their agents than they are like us, the fans, the true customers of this team.  We just use front office as jargon when these people are really just the executives of the baseball operations division with the owner of the team also, in some cases, lumped in.

Not much crazy new here but just something that has been rattling around in my brain. 

2. Good effort by Ohio State on Saturday.  No one talks about it but it was just bad play calling that netted them -1 yards on their last three plays before forcing Ruggles to try a field goal longer than he had ever made.  That was the key to the game there.  Bad play calling on the last 3 plays.  I was screaming for them to do a student body right-type play toward the sideline with Stroud carrying the ball.  Could have gotten 2-3 or more yards and avoided a fumble as Stroud just steps out at the first sign of trouble.   As far as the Buckeyes defense, Knowles has a lot to improve on next year.

3. Donovan Mitchell...SEVENTY-ONE...amazing.   

4. To reiterate, it is time the Guardians start thinking about usage rates for their relievers.  On paper they have enough relievers but, given the usage rates, they NEED another lefty reliever and could use, but don't really need, a veteran righty 7th innng guy.  The former would likely be by free agency on a major league contract and the latter could be on a minor league contract.  

5. It would be nice to see some of our utility guys out in Arizona working on their positional flexibility.  Not everything has to be done starting in spring training.  Arias should get time in LF and he and Freeman should get time at all 4 infield positions. 

6. Is it just me or is this off-season in baseball just setting up perfectly.  I mean, yeah, the Mets are spending ridiculous amounts but the free agent shuffle is going, in my opinon, flawlessly and so far, and I imagine in the future, the trades are going perfectly with teams who match each others' needs being able to make deals.   The Guardians do have an excess of prospects but I applaud them for not just giving away guys BECAUSE they have excess.  I mean, if Andre Knott's assertion that the A's were asking for Daniel Espino and other Guards' top 10 prospects for Sean Murphy is accurate, given what they eventually accepted for Murphy, it shows that the rest of baseball either thinks the Guardians' prospects aren't as good as the rankings would indicate or that they were playing hardball with Cleveland BECAUSE the Guardians have so many prospects that they won't be able to find playing time for all of them AND because the Guardians are in a competitive window right now.   Again, props to them for not blinking and making a trade they will regret later, not for what they get back but what they give up.

7. While I applauded them in 6., I still am ticked that they traded Jones for Brito.  Not an even trade and one that smacks, in reverse, of the Tobias Myers trade last year.   Hey, Vargas for Carver, I get it because you needed the roster spot for Bell and a team like the D'backs have to roll the dice a little hoping to catch the brass ring.  But Jones for a guy who will run out of minor league options BEFORE he gets to even 1/2 a season in the majors?  Ridiculous on paper and, as I said before, teams that value guys the rest of the league doesn't value almost, and I repeat, ALMOST always get burned.  

8. Can't wait for ST to start.  Hoping for another season with only small or no injury issues and guys (like Shaw and Gonzalez, for instance) giving us bigger than expected results with most others giving us at least average results for their abilities.  I know that is a big ask but this team isn't far from 94 wins this coming season but they aren't far from 83 losses, as well, if things don't break right.

9. Hoping NONE of our guys play in the World Baseball Classic.  I don't know why but it seems like major leaguers seem to be more negatively affected by this type of event than guys in other sports.  I mean, Olympic basketball for instance.  How often are guys hurt in that event compared to what happens to guys in the WBC.  And I am not just talking about acute injuries.  Just long-term wear and tear.   The WBC should be for career minor leaguers, professionals in other professional leagues not named MLB and guys in the lower minors, not for major leaguers.

A hard look at our prospects and what they need to do in 2023

 We have lots of good prospects.  In fact, I think it is safe to say that no team in baseball has the prospect depth that we have when you consider prospects who are close to or ready for the majors.   That being said, our high-end prospect depth as measured by how many prospects we have in the top 30 in baseball (one per team), is not above average.  

Each of our prospects has things they need to accomplish in 2023 that will take them over that hump.  This listing will not include Freeman or Palacios who have all exceeded rookie limits.   

So let's dive in:

1. Daniel Espino - The key here is health.  Look, this kid has a Gerrit Cole upside if he is healthy and his floor under the same conditions is as an 8th inning setup man who could grow into a closer of the Emmanuel Clase ilk (actually, due to not being that tall, what he was projected to be when drafted).  But he has to stay healthy.  His lost 2022 season was a mystery with no real explanation of what happened to him or any real, substantive updates of what happened to him during the season.   We started hearing it was a knee problem, then a shoulder problem.  But, if you believe the rumors, the Guardans were dogged in not including him in trades this winter.  He just needs to stay healthy and build up his arm and command.

2. George Valera - The issue with some of these guys, Valera being the first on this list, is that they are so young for their level and the level they started at last year.   When a guy gets promoted and doesn't light up the next level there are always lingering question marks about whether he has hit the ceiling based on his abilities.   Not that Valera is in the same category, but there have been a lot of guys who hit the heck out of AAA pitching but couldn't translate that to the majors.  Corey Dickerson is the guy I see as the floor for Valera and while the guy has hung around the majors for 10 years and has a career .805 OPS, he just is a rotational player, not a starter and certainly not an all-star.   For Valera to avoid that floor he is going to have to conquer AAA this year and it looks like power and OBP are going to have to be his calling cards as he doesn't look like he is going to hit for more than .260 in the majors.  So, for this year, he needs to lower is K%, keep his BB% high and get his power numbers up to 30+ at AAA (based on a full year's worth of games, that is).  His defense needs to continue to improve, as well, as he would have to be a plus defender with a good arm to stay in RF in the majors.  If his K rate goes up and his BB rate takes a hit and he sticks at around 20 HR for a full season he will start to migrate to a Corey Dickerson-type prospect.

3. Brayan Rocchio - Smooth swing, smooth defnses, defensive versatility (SS/2B).   The key for him will be his hitting.  His upside is Andres Gimenez's 2022 season.  However, he did not exactly conquer AAA or his winter league this year.   He doesn't appear to be a proficient basestealer and his OBP % and walk rate could use improvement.  He has to maintain his power and increase his walk rate.  A full year at AAA where he gets to 60 BB, 25 2B, 20 HR, 10 steals with a .270 average while playing top notch defense is what he needs to work for at AAA.  This, hopefully, will set him up for those 2022 Andres Gimenez-type numbers either this year or next year.

4. Gavin Williams - Literally, he just needs to repeat his peformance from 2022, this team STARTING at Akron and ending at Columbus.   This, of course, means staying healty and improving his command and his craft.  He is in the grind and he just needs to stay healthy and perform

5. Bo Naylor - Again, just improve his craft.   I think he has set himself up for the typical prospect pattern: handle a level for 1/2 a year, struggle a little after a promotion, rinse and repeat the next year.   He will be in his second year at AAA and should put up good offensive numbers.  He needs to keep his walk rate high, improve on his power and continue to realize that hitting for average is important, too.  Still, it is his defense that will carry him.  If he does well he should be in the majors by the all-star break and should get a lot of his ML learning done in the second half this year.  

6.  Tanner Bibee - He came out of nowhere last year and so he needs to maintain that consistency in 2023.  He just needs to stay healthy and work on his craft although it looks like he is clearly about 18 months away from helping this team.  He is in the grind and needs to improve all aspects, while staying healthy.

7. Logan Allen - Here is a guy who got chewed up at AAA last year.  But it was a long season and he has moved fast through the system.  He isn't a big power guy like Williams and so these bumps in the road on promotion to the next level will be expected.  He just needs to continue to find ways to get guys out while he improves his stuff.   A good comp for him is where Beiber is now.   If Allen can make it to the 2022 level of Beiber (which I think is very reasonable) he will have maxed out his ability.  It will likely take him all of 2023 to shore up his game and his craft to have a chance in 2024 to be 'that' rookie.

8. Gabriel Arias - In 2023 he has to decide who he is.   He just has to hit more, plain and simple.   He reminds me of the 2021 version of Andres Gimenez.  I am not saying to scrap his current hitting approach but he needs to get more walks, hit for more power, and make better contact.   Look at Amed Rosario's stats last year.  I think those are highly achiveable for Arias but he needs to make improvements to get there.  This is a make-or-break year for hm in terms of starting to play like an all-star.  His whole game, across the board, needs to get immediately better.  Given his young age, if this happens he can still be an offensive star, defensive asset in the middle of the diamond or at an outfield corner for the Guardians.

9. Xzavion Curry - A big part of Curry's development will be if they move him to the bullpen.  As a starter he is undersized but without Espino's fastball.  I don't know if he can hold up, let alone dominate in the majors, with his size and stuff.  But, in the bullpen, you are looking at top of the league 8th inning guy and, I think, right now.  So his development will depend on his team using hm appropriately.  If they continue with him as a starter he might disappoint this year.  We will see.

10. Jake Fox - He, like Milan Tolentino, just need to play.  What they will eventually end up being is too out of focus right now as it will only be determined when both get to AA and AAA.  Lots of potential but let's remember that Owen Miller was this level of prospect in our system.  So, there's that.

11. Jhonkensy Noel -  If there is one guy in the system that has to take to what the Guardians are asking him to do, it is Noel.  As a firstbaseman with Bell on a one-year opt out, Noel can put himself in position to be in the majors in 2024 with a good season.  But I can see this going two ways.  If he is receptive and puts the Guardians' teachings into play he becomes Spongebob.   If he goes his own way, he becomes Franmil part deux.   He is teed up to start the year at AAA and that challenge, along with how he has to improve his game, will go a long way to determine his eventual worth.  If he does his job well and stays healthy, he could be our team ROY in 2024...and a much needed piece.  As I said last year, I see a little Albert Pujols in him and I hope he can develop into anywhere near what Albert became.

There are a lot more guys I will touch on in the next few weeks, hopefully.   But I wanted to start with these guys today.