Lots to talk about in terms of how I think our lineup should be constructed so let's get started:
Last year Josh Bell finished 3rd in the majors in grounding into double plays. Amed Rosario finished 6th.
If you have read this site in 2023 you likely know that I think double plays are really a problem for a team that manufactures runs like the Guardians.
In today's game Jose Ramirez got on base and Josh Bell followed by hitting into a double play while hitting righthanded.
Neither of those events was surprising. Jose is, well, Jose and Josh Bell hit into 22 double plays last year, 10 while hitting righthanded. In fact, he hit into a DP every 18 AB righthanded last year and, not surprisingly, every 33 ABs when he was hitting left-handed, being two steps closer to first base.
As Bell claimed the shift hurt his stats last year I wanted to see if the removal of the shift this year could actually make his double plays go down. It likely will not.
An analysis done at the beginning of the 2022 season showed that one of the things the shift DOESN'T do is get more double plays. This isn't surprising as the shift is designed to stop hits, not increase double plays as alignments that have three fielders on the right or left side of the infield don't really put players in ideal positions to throw to second or turn the double play after receiving the throw. In fact, comparing 2021 to 2020 the shift decreased the percent of ABs that end up in double plays from 3.9% to 2.3%. The study looked further and over the previous 6-year period the shift dcreased double plays from 3.4% of at bats to 2.5%.
Using these statistics, we will likely see an increase in double plays this year, maybe by as much as 50%. Thus it would not be surprising to see Bell among the league leaders in DPs, and killing some rallies, if we don't try to avoid it.
CHASE RATE
According to Baseball Savant, Amed Rosario was in the 4th percentile in chase rate in 2022 but in the 96th percentile in speed. Both these things we implicitly know if we have watched him hit. He also hit into 19 DPs and had a large rate at which he topped balls (leading to infield hits, I am sure) and hit ground balls, leading to forceouts and double plays. Here is a guy who needs to bat with no one in front of him for a lot of reasons. BTW, I don't see Rosario's double plays going up this year as I don't think he was shifted on at all last year.
PREMISE FOR SCORING BY TEAMS WITHOUT A LOT OF POWER
In order to score, teams without power have to bunch hits, steal bases, go from first to third and second to home at every opportunity. Basically, you have to get more than one guy on in an inning. You have to extend rallies, you have to avoid giving away outs.
My position is that in order to do this effectively you have to avoid giving up outs. This can be from getting thrown out on the bases but it can also come from avoiding giving up two outs in one AB. That is, by avoiding double plays.
LINEUPS
So my lineup, actually platoon lineups, are designed to keep the good elements from last year while avoiding double plays AND protecting hitters. So here it goes:
vs Left-handed starting pitchers
Kwan
Freeman (DH)
Ramirez
Gonzalez
Bell
Gimenez
Zunino
Rosario
Straw
Comments: If Freeman can't cut it you move Rosaro back to #2 and have one of Freeman, Arias or Fry hit #8, being the DH, replaceable by Naylor if the team switches to a right handed pitcher. This lineup limits double plays as Gonzalez and Zunino are not huge OBP guys, good since they are hitting in front of our two high DP guys, Bell and Rosario, respectively. Plus Rosario tops enough balls that you want first base open when he hits. Plus, this lineup protects Gonzalez by having him hitting in front of Bell and gives us a lot of L/R alternating down through spot #7 although our last three spots in this lineup are right-handed hitters if Rosario bats 8th. If Rosario bats 2nd then Naylor pinchhitting for the #8, DH spot, brings that balance back. This doesn't really hurt our DP situation as Straw is generally not a DP candidate.
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
Kwan
Brennan
Ramirez
Naylor (DH)
Bell
Gimenez
Zunino
Rosario
Straw
Comments: This lineup has weaknesses with two left-handed hitters hitting in the first two spots and three right handed hitters hitting in the last 3 spots. If a team switches to a LH pitcher you just substitute Gonzalez for Brennan. While this is not ideal Gonzalez is not a rally killer in terms of double plays. The same strengths apply here as in the other lineup. Naylor is protected by Bell and is not a high OBP guy so he doesn't give Bell as many opportunities for hitting into double plays. The comments about Gimenz and Zunino and Zunino and Rosario still apply.
Rosario got a lot of cheap hits from his speed and all his topped balls last year. If that doesn't work out this year having him hit 8th most if not all the time doesn't hurt the team if we can get Brennan and Freeman or Arias to be effective at #2.
Again, Francona is not likely to do this as he is a creature of habit and Rosario at #2 last year was a key to going 92-70. I don't see him change but he should. I predict that double plays will REALLY hurt this team this year and we need to find ways to avoid it right out of the gate.
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