As an old guy, one thing I have seen that appears to be a given with young people is the need for instant gratification. I mean, for as long as I casn remember! Even with as fast as technology is today, it seems that it is never fast enough for young people.
Now, as far as the Guardians, a lot of us old people feel the same way, but maybe for different reasons. Almost none of us remember the last time Cleveland won a World Series. It is the one thing that living Cleveland baseball fans have not seen...and many want it...bad.
So that brings me to this post, which is about how maybe some of us are thinking about the instant gratification, the kind that comes from bringing up prospects with the hope that they can somehow provide a spark. So this post will be about two things: (1) the handling of prospects and (2) the need for the FO to be better about the handling of the 40-man roster. Let's start with the the second one first:
HANDLING OF THE 40-MAN ROSTER
We have a roster glut. To add someone we have to remove someone from the backend of the 40-man roster. My view of the candidates to be DFA'd from our 40-man roster is:
a) Meibrys Viloria - The only truly expendable player on our roster, Viloria could be DFA'd at any moment.
b) Tim Herrin - Herrin being rostered this winter shows one of the issues with the FO's handling of the roster. Yes, Herrin has some ability. But knowing the roster crunch to come, the FO should have gambled on him not being drafted in the Rule 5 this past winter. Given that Kevin Kelly stuck with Tampa Bay this season, likely that means that Herrin would have been lost to the Rule 5. Still, we are talking about a guy not even in top 30 prospect lists for the Guardians and, until he was rostered this winter, not in most TOP FIFTY prospect lists for the Guardians. Herrin is clearly, to me, the next man up to get DFA'd and that shouldn't happen to a guy who we felt compelled to add to the 40-man just a few months ago. He has some ability, but if we lose him now, it will not look very good.
c) Sam Hentges, Aaron Civale, George Valera - OK, with these guys we are not talking about a DFA but, rather, placng them on the 60-day DL. I am a little confused about how retroactive this can be. For example, can Valera be placed on the 60 day DL list retroactively from the beginning of the season and can 'time served' on the 10-, or 15-day injured lists can count as part of the 60 days a player must serve away from the majors when placed on the 60-day DL. We don't know what is going on with the rehab of these players but it is possible that one or more of these players might require longer times on the DL/IL than originally anticipated.
d) Konnor Pilkington - Pilkington might be useful at times to the Guardians this year, being the kind of yo-yo player who can be the 27th man for a doubleheader or can be up for a few days (or a single start, when needed) as a last pitcher on the roster when someone like Curry or Gaddis or Battenfield have been burned and won't be available for a number of days. Think Josh Tomlin but with less ability, in my opinion. That being said, talent-wise, Pilkington is probably an end-of-the-roster guy and might be next on the list to DFA if we desperately need a roster spot.
e) Players I don't want to talk about - Obviously we are going to talk about them but I don't WANT to talk about these players because I think they are true prospects. Because you are the 5th (or 10th) best middle infield prospect in the organization doesn't make you worthless, it just makes you tradeable. This is an important distinction that some 'experts' don't agree with and some fans don't understand.
(1) Juan Brito - Very far away from the majors, the only thing I think that would stop us from DFAing him is that we just traded for him over the winter KNOWING we had a roster glut, and we traded a top prospect, Nolan Jones, for him. But, clearly, the odds of him making the majors are the longest of any player currently on the 40-man simply because he is so far away (Lake County) and might run out of options before he makes the majors. Nothing I have personally seen this spring makes me believe that he will suddenly accelerate his development to avoid that situation so, in my mind, while he is NOT expendable, he is the most expendable of this last group.
(2) Jose Tena - Tena is becoming the whipping boy of our minor league middle infielders. A guy who has been hanging around 10-20 in our prospect lists due to his young age, middle infield defense and the current and potential impact of his bat as a middle infielder, some think he is expendable, maybe even in a DFA/lost on waivers situation because we have so many other talented MIF prospects. I disagree and fear that he could be considered DFA material for a short-term gain of adding another player to the 40 man. Still, there may be some things going on behind the scenes that could make Tena the surprise DFA if we need a roster spot right now.
(3) Richie Palacios - I don't use the term lightly so when I say I heard two idiots on a pod cast this spring saying that we should keep Roman Quinn on the opening day roster and DFA Palacios while running down Palacios' value it made me invoke this term to describe these two guys. Palacios, in my opinion, is NOT DFA fodder. Can the Guardians afford to lose him? Maybe, eventually, once Valera is healthy and ready, but Palacios has value and any consideration that he is OK to DFA for some short term advantage is, well, stupid.
(4) Cam Gallagher - Gallagher is only on this list if we choose to bring up Bo Naylor and let him be Zunino's caddy. While I doubt if we would do that it is in the realm of possibility as a way to clear a 40-man roster spot by removing a guy who isn't destined to be here that long. I think Viloria gets DFA'd first but, maybe down the road, Gallagher could go during this season at the first moment Naylor is ready.
HANDLING OF PROSPECTS
This actually ties into the first topic and the only reason I bring it up here is because of the Tanner Bibee situation.
I think it is inappropriate to add Bibee or any true prospect to the 40-man roster in a year where they don't have to be added.
It is wrong on so many levels (player not fully developed, player having no current role on a healthy 40 man roster, player's arbitration clock starting, player option being burned, free agency clock starting, taking a valuable 40-man roster spot when not absolutely needed that year or when they don't have to be rostered this winter) to bring up a player too early, ESPECIALLY on a team like the Guardians. Yeah, bring up and DFA all the Jake Jewells you want to. They are AAAA players who can be added and removed from the 40-man roster without impacting the state of our farm system.
So far the FO has been masterful at doing what is necessary to manage the 40 man roster by not knee-jerking or, at least, only knee-jerking when it made sense.
But, if they are going to start bringing up prospects early they need to have a plan. They need to start modifying the 40-man roster long-term, not simply lopping guys off the roster because they are the least needed guys on that roster. When you have a great farm system like the Guardians do, that would just be stupid. So, later on this week I will do a post about trading, right now, guys who we don't intend to sign long-term. But, for right now, let's just say that bringing up Tanner Bibee is a bad move for all the reasons I mentioned above.
All you have to do to understand this is to think about what happens when McKenzie, Morris and Civale come back. At that point, in Cleveland, you have just lessened the value of a guy like Bibee as you have started all of his 'clocks'. One way of thinking about it is if Bibee starts 2024 on the opening day roster we have him through at least 2029. If he comes up now there is a chance we only have him through 2028. That, alone, should be a reason to not bring him up just because we need a starter this Wednesday or we hope we catch lightning in a bottle and can replace other whipping boys like Plesac.
So, FO, make trades, manage your prospects well (or trade them for a GOOD return, for a change) and get ready to trade ML guys who have value who you don't intend to be or think the player will choose to be on the roster in the near or long-term future. But DON'T bring up Tanner Bibee for one start just because it LOOKS like the best thing to do short-term.
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