Friday, April 28, 2023

The Trade: Version 2

I spent a lot of last season saying we should put a package together to get Juan Soto.  We didn't and he (and Josh Bell) ended up in San Diego.

I spent a lot of the late fall and early winter saying we should put together a package for Sean Murphy and AJ Puk.   We didn't and at last check Murphy was hammering for Atlanta and Puk was dealing for the Marlins.

So, two possible trades that could have helped us, could have helped us clear roster space so we wouldn't have had to dump Jones, Benson, Vargas and Miller for little or no gain.

This season I am on a different trade.   If you read my previous post I am looking to trade with the Dodgers.  Since that post I thought we could expand the deal and get back more ML-ready talent.  

So, here goes:

Dodgers get: 
Shane Beiber,
Amed Rosario
Myles Straw
Juan Brito
Jose Tena

Why this makes sense for the Dodgers: They get back a playoff-tested former CY award winner with almost 2 full seasons of control left, an established ML shortstop (which they desperately need) and a gold glove centerfielder with 4 years of control.  These are all guys they currently need as they lost their SS from last year, have starting pitchers down with injury right now and are starting a rookie in centerfield.  Plus, since the return to Cleveland will involve mostly prospects, they get a couple back.

Why this makes sense for Cleveland: We were NEVER going to re-sign Rosario.  For Cleveland, he is too expensive but he could be a good long-term fit with the Dodgers.  Ditto for Beiber who we would not be able to afford.  As far as Straw, gold glove centerfielders are hard to come by but baseball is offense plus defense.  Even with his outstanding defense and his .263 average he is 'only' 0.2 WAR so far this season.  Plus, we clear the 2 prospects from our 40-man roster the least likely to help the team this year or next year, with both clogging the 40-man during those two years.


Cleveland gets: 

Bobby Miller RHP (LA's #2 prospect)
Michael Busch 2B/OF (LA's #3 prospect)
Gavin Stone RHP (LA's #4 prospect)
James Outman CF (LA's #8 prospect)
Dalton Rushing C (LA's #7 prospect)
Joendry Vargas SS (LA's #23 prospect)
Josue De Paula OF (LA's #11 prospect)
Emmitt Sheehan RHP (LA's #14 prospect)

Why this makes sense for Cleveland:  Cleveland gets back two  ML-ready, left-handed hitting outfielders with power.   This flips the script on their season as they are almost dead last in the majors in homeruns.  Outman is playing, in my opinion, out of position in CF for LA but if he hangs onto that position he could be really valuable to the Guardians.  He is exceeding expectations this year but the power is real. They also get back Stone and Miller who, if they are free of injuries, should be ML ready starting pitchers by next spring training.  Stone and Miller do not have be rostered until this winter.  Rushing, Vargas and De Paula do not have to be rostered for 3 years, at least.  Vargas was a $2.08 million signing this past January and De Paula was a $400,000 signing the year before who has already turned heads enough that he is already their #11 prospect and hasn't even played in the US yet.  Basically we are getting ML ready guys and guys really far down the line in terms of having to be protected from the Rule 5, making this both a short- and long-term play for the Guardians.  Getting Sheehan is the icing on this cake as he is currently dominating AA with a fastball that can touch 99 and he doesn't have to be rostered until after the 2024 season, meshing with his rostering and when he should be ML ready.

NOTE: I really wanted to ask for Caleb Ferguson and would take him instead of Sheehan and maybe give back Rushing if I could get Ferguson.

Why this makes sense for the Dodgers: Given what the Guardians are sending the Dodgers, the players the Dodgers are trading away would not likely help them this year.  Even though this is a large prospect load to give up, the Didgers keep their top prospect, catcher Diego Cartaya, the #12 prospect in all of baseball.  They also trade away Miller when there is still a little question about his health.   Busch is a really good offensive prospect but is without a position and is not really needed by the Dodgers.  Outman is exceeding expectations this year and the Dodgers could feel like they are selling high on him.  While Stone is a really good pitching prospect the Dodgers have a lot of those, including the currently injured Ryan Pepiot, their #5 prospect and the possible rookie of the year candidate, Miguel Vargas, who was their #3 prospect before the season and is now starting at 3B for the Dodgers.  Losing Rushing, Joendry Vargas and De Paula so early in their careers has to be acceptable to the cash-heavy Dodgers.  Losing Sheehan has to hurt a little as it damaging their pitching prospect depth a little more but getting these ML veterans this early in the season makes this look less like a deadline deal and so the return should be a little heavier on prospects.  

It is possible that the Dodgers might ask the Guardians take an additional player to offset the salaries a little.  I could see them asking us to take on the remainder of Chris Taylor's salary but I think the Guardians would balk at that.  


No comments:

Post a Comment