OK, so we have an off-day and instead of thinking about the ML Guardians I wanted to do a little thinking FUTURE Guardians.
This year's draft will take place July 9-11 in Seattle and will again be 20 rounds.
The Guardians will have the following selections in the upcoming draft:
#23 (round 1)
#58 (round 2)
#62 (competitive balance)
#93 (round 3)
#125 (round 4)
#161 (round 5)
#188 (round 6)
#218 (round 7)
and every 30 picks after that for each succeeding round
So, who might the Guardians select? Looking at the current rankings the Guardians may have to go outside their comfort zone which appears to the college pitchers with exceptional control and good size and left-handed or switch-hitting outfielders/infielders as the draft does not set up for them to be able to pick a quality player in the first round at either of those positions. So, looking at who might be available when they draft in the first round, here are some thoughts of who they might draft:
Myles Naylor - OF - HS - Canada - An obvious, sentimental selection, Naylor might not fit into our plan. He is currently rated as the #60 draft prospect by MLB Pipeline so if the Guardians wanted to draft him at #23 it would be a huge overdraft that would likely be motivated by saving money for later round picks (underslot bonus) in addition to the sentimentality. So, Naylor at #58 is a win-win for everyone. Maybe our competitors will even let us grab him as I don't see him being overdrafted by any paticular team as I don't see his skillset as making him a candidate to be over-drafted and I don't like guys who shoot up the boards at the last minute.
Yohandy Morales - 3B - Miami - Rated as the #15 prospect by MLB Pipeline back in Dec., Morales has good power (18 HR last year) but this year has hit only one HR since March 3rd. In the draft you don't want to have a bad junior year in college. Morales, whose dad played for the Cuban National team and played in the minors. Morales hits right-handed which is not a fit for the Guardians mold of hitter (switch-hitter or left-handed hitter). Yet, the chance to land an experienced college bat that has fallen was what the Guardians did last year with DeLauter so...you never know.
Tanner Witt RHP - Texas - This is the real pipe dream pick for the Guardians in the first round. He has fallen out of the first round in a lot of rankings due to his TJ surgery last year but he is already pitching in games at Texas. A big body son of a former major leaguer (Bobby Witt) who plays at a major college, despite the TJ surgery, you would guess would go as a top 10 pick if he shows he can pitch at all this spring (which he has already done) or even just in pre-draft combines and workouts. But a guy can hope, right?
Hunter Owen - LHP - Vanderbilt - This is a wild pick but Keith Law likes him so let's talk about him. 6-6, throws hard (97) with a good curveball. This is the type of sucker bet that could blow up in your face pretty easily and VERY quickly...like the guy not even making out of A or AA, EVER. What happens in a previous draft DOES have an impact on what you do in the next draft. With DeLauter, Campbell and DeLucia out with injury and the rest of the 2022 class underwhelming so far, you want to hit with your top few picks in 2023 and, while the draft is a bit of a crapshoot, you don't want to add to that crapshoot by picking a wildcard like Owens in the first round. Now, if he is available at 58 or 62 (almost impossible to imagine), he might be a good gamble depending on who we get at 23.
Nathan Detmers - RHP - Texas A&M - A classic Cleveland pitching draftee, strikethrower, slightly above average fastball that could get faster once he enters the Cleveland Guardians Finishing School for Young Pitchers, he might entice them. He has been getting hit around pretty good right now (22 hits, 16 runs in his last 15+ innings) so he might have moved himself down to 4th/5th round consideration.
There are LOTS of college bats out there and here are just a couple
Kyle Teel - C- Virginia - Still steaming that the Guardians didn't gobble up Daniel Susac last year but it makes a point. Susac not exactly tearing up the Midwest League this year (4-17, compare to Lampe). So suggesting another college catcher in the first round this year may not fly with fans. Still, he is an experienced left-handed hitting college catcher who can hit (.437 this year), take walks (16 BB, 15 K in 137 PA this year) and field (1 error and thrown out 52% of basestealers this year. Only red flag 5 PB). With Naylor at AAA do we need another left-handed hitting catcher in our system? Remember, you draft the best player available and, to me, the one most likely to be successful in the big leagues. That could be Teel at #23 in the draft.
Tommy Troy - SS - Stanford - A middle infielder who makes consistent, hard contact he reminds me of Tyler Freeman as he also hits right handed. Probably a second baseman in the pros he is hitting .420 this spring with 16 walks and 14 Ks in 100 ABs so far this spring. A relatively high floor/low ceiling pick as his power is limited. Still, if you want to make sure you get SOMETHING out of this selection and askew the high risk/high reward guy that Cleveland seems to be moving away from, Troy might be your guy.
Cole Carigg - OF - SD State - A switch-hitter, he fits the Guardians' mold of the hitters and can play multiple positions. The only problem is that he hasn't hit that well this season (.329) and has only 2 walks in 73 ABs this season while exclusively playing OF. He might have fallen all the way to the 4th or 5th round with his performance this year. We may be considering him for a slot like that as he DOES check off some of the boxes that Cleveland covets.
Additionally, as college players dominate the rankings down to about #20 this year, there will likely be lots of high risk/high reward HS players still on the board when the Guardians draft. If the Guardians are sure they have found 'the' guy, maybe they will go HS player in the first round. However, they have such a spotty history of drafting HS players early as can be told by recent results:
2020 - Carson Tucker - 1st round
2019 - Yordys Valdes - 2nd round
2019 - Joe Naranjo - 3rd round
2018 - Bo Naylor - 1st round
2017 - Quentin Holmes - CB first round
2017 - Tyler Freeman - 2nd round
So I wonder if they will try that HS path again for their first or second round pick.
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