Decision Month Coming Up - Volume 3 - Trades and Putting Together A Roster

 December could be a big month for the Guardians in terms of trades and molding our roster for next year.

Or it could be a snoozefest.

Time will tell how aggressive the Guardians are but here are my thoughts:

NEEDS

• RFer or CFer with power; 
• starting pitcher depth (more if we trade more starting pitching)

TRADE CHIPS

• MIFers: Martinez, Tena, Arias, Brito
• OFers: Straw, Laureano, Gonzalez, Brennan
• Pitchers: Beiber, Cantillo, Webb, Dion, Karinchak, Morgan, Gaddis, Herrin, Morris, Sandlin, Cade Smith, 
• Corner IFers: Manzardo
• Deeper Prospects: Chourio, Velazquez, Fox, Halpin, Messick, Genao, Tolentino

UNTOUCHABLES

• Ramirez
• Josh Naylor
• Bo Naylor
• Bibee
• Williams
• Allen
• Clase
• Stephan
• Barlow
• Curry
• Espino
• Hentges
• McKenzie
• Valera
• Freeman
• Rocchio
• Jonathon Rodriguez
• DeLauter
• Fry
• Bethancourt
• Noel

Reasoning: Some of the guys on the untouchable list are, indeed, untouchable.  But guys like Freeman, Valera, Espino, Rocchio, JRod, DeLauter, Noel are undervalued right now due to injury or depression of their value by them not getting a fair chance to show how valuable they can be are untouchable because you could only get PRESENT equal value for them which way underestimates their true value.   The simple truth is that you would sell low if you traded guys like this now.  

Other guys on the trade chip list like Bieber (compared to his zero value after the all-star break before his last few starts), Arias, Brito and Manzardo are at the zenith of their value (so far) and so you wouldn't be selling low on them.  Others are just duplicates of what we have.  

TRADE TARGETS

I started to fill out this section with Arozerana, Santander, Robert Jr., Cease, etc. but that is for the deep thinkers in the FO to consider what the best trade they can make for these guys or other trade targets who meet our needs is. 

As I have said repeatedly in the past couple of months, you can't trade pitching for OF hitting and end up with a hole n your rotation.  That is simply just shuffling deck chairs. 

What I am also saying is whatever package you propose, you need to consider the present value of the prospects you are considering trading and see if it matches up with recent projections for their value.  For example, Tyler Freeman was the #1 prospect in a deep Cleveland farm system at the beginning of 2022 and people are treating him now like a utility guy who you can just throw into a trade.  That is just not who he is as 2022 was injury-filled and in 2023 he just sat on the bench.   No way you trade Freeman if you are assigning him utility infielder value. 

Decision Month Coming Up - Volume 2 - The 2024 Draft Lottery

 BACKGROUND

OK, for the first time in Guardians' history (and for the first time in the two year history of the draft lottery. LOL) the Guardians are participating in the draft lottery.

To me this is like the second chance lottery when you have already failed to win any money on the real lottery.   Your team had a bad season and their consolation prize is a system where you don't have much chance of winning.

But, to be clear, there are two kinds of 'winning' here.  So let's define what those are.  Remember, every team that does not make the playoffs in theory gets to participate in the lottery.  Some teams, like Washington this year, don't get to participate in the lottery if they have participated in one or more consecutive years before this year.  Here 's the good things that can happen:

• "Winning the lottery" is defined by me as getting the #1 overall pick.  The odds of that happening are small.  For the Guardians this year, with the 9th worst record in 2023, it is 2 %.  Oakland, KC and Colorado, with the 3 worst records in baseball this year, have a 16.5 % chance of getting the top pick.
• "Getting a lottery selection", that is, getting to pick in one of the top 6 slots in the first round.  If I have done my calculations right the Guardians have about a 20% of getting a pick in the top 6 with Oakland, who had the worst record in baseball this year, having an 80% chance.

2022 DRAFT LOTTERY

Last year the lottery did shake up the first round significantly.  Below is the draft order that ACTUALLY happened in the first round. The numbers in parentheses is where these teams ranked in where they would have drafted without the lottery (and did draft in later rounds of the 2023 draft).

1. Pittsburgh (3)

2. Washington (1)

3. Detroit (6)

4. Texas (7)

5. Minnesota (13)

6. Oakland (2)

7. Cincinnati (4)

8. KC (5)

9. Colorado (8)

10. Seattle (9)

11. LAA (10)

12. Arizona (11)

13. Chicago Cubs (12)

14. Boston (14)

15. Chicago WS (15)

16. San Francisco (16)

17. Baltimore (17)

18. Milwaukee (18)

By this list you can see how the order was jumbled by Minnesota getting a much higher slot than where they should have and other teams moving up or down depending on how their slots changed due to the lottery.  Only 4 of the 6 teams with the best chances of getting a lottery selection actually did.  The MLB strategy of stopping teams from tanking worked somewhat as Pittsburgh, with the 3rd worst record last year actually won the lottery, getting to pick 1st overall in the first round.  Oakland, with the 2nd worst record last year, dropped all the way down to 6th.  

2023 DRAFT LOTTERY SCENARIOS

Looking at 2022 it looks like the Guardians might sneak into the top 6 by winning a lottery selection.  It is less likely, but still possible, that they could pull a Cavs Lebron Year and get the top spot.  

So let's look at the different scenarios:

• Guardians win a lottery selection: They get that spot in the first round and revert back to the 9th overall spot in later rounds (possibly higher in the 2nd and 3rd rounds for teams that sacrifice their 2nd or 3rd picks this winter for signing a QO free agent or who didn't sign a draft pick in those rounds last year.
• Guardians do not get a lottery selection
• If Cleveland does not win a lottery selection any team ranked 10th or below (except for Washington, see below) that does win a lottery selection knocks Cleveland down to 11th
• Washington is locked in at #10.  They cannot move up or down in the 1st round draft order.  If one team moves ahead of Cleveland by winning a lottery selection Cleveland will drop 2 spots to 11th.
• If the Mets do not get a lottery selection they will drop to 17th overall and Cleveland moves up to #8 and the Tigers move up to 9th.  In this case 2 teams not currently in the top 6 would have to win lottery selections for Cleveland to drop to 11th.
• If all 6 teams that win a lottery selection are ranked below Cleveland, the Guardians could drop 6 spots and, not counting Washington's spot, this would have them selecting 16th in the first round.

SUMMARY

Looking at last year here are my thoughts on where Cleveland might draft

• They will draft anywhere from 1-6 or 8-16 in the first round
• 1 would mean they win the lottery
• 2-6 would mean they won a lottery selection
• They cannot select 7th under any circumstances.
• They can select 8th if they don't win a lottery selection and no team below them does and the Mets do not win a lottery selection
• They will select 9th if the Mets win a lottery selection and no team below them wins a lottery selection
• They will select 11th if the Mets and one other team or two other teams NOT including the Mets ranked below the Guardians win a lottery selection
• They will select somewhere between 12th and 16th if 3,4,5 or 6 teams, respectively, who rank below them ALL win lottery selections.
• They cannot, under any circumstances, select 17th or 18th.

The most likely scenario for Cleveland is that they select 9th.  Second most likely is that they select 11th and, to me, the 3rd most likely scenario is that they select 5th or 6th.   Still, with all slots in the 1st round between 1 and 16 (except for 7th) in play, there will be significant drama on draft lottery selection night.  It would be great for the Guardians, and likely cause high 5s all around in MLB's executive offices and at MLBPA if a team like the Guardians won the top slot and teams that weren't really trying that hard to win games (Oakland, KC and Colorado) didn't win a lottery selection at all or, at best, didn't win the top overall selection.

Decision Month Coming Up - Volume 1 - The Rule 5 Draft

 Here are some important dates remaining this off-season and what I think they mean to the Guardians.

Rule 5 Draft - December 6th

Impact on the Guardians:

• Players who might be lost - Major League Portion (on Columbus reserve list)
• Dayan Frias (50% chance of being drafted)
• Nic Mikolajchak (50%)
• Daniel Schneeman (40%)
• Ethan Hankins (40%)
• Tanner Burns (40%)
• Bryan Lavastida (40%)
• Wuilfredo Antunez (40%)
• Randy Labout (30%)
• Micah Pries (30%)
• Aaron Bracho (30%)
• Bradley Hanner (30%)
• Andrew Misiaszek (30%)
• Allan Hernandez (30%)
• Jerson Ramirez (30%)
• Lenny Torres Jr. (30%)
• Juan Benjamin (30%)
• Esteban Gonzalez (20%)
• Rey Delgado (20%)
• Josh Wolf (20%)
• Micael Ramirez (20%)
• Alexfri Planez (20%)
• Maick Collado (20%)
• All others on ML reserve list (<20%)
• Players who might be lost - Minor League Portion (on minor league reserve list)
• Trey Benton (50%)
•  Nic Enright (50%)
•  Eric Sabrowski (50%)
• Elvis Jerez (50%)
• Thomas Ponticelli (50%)
• Mason Hickman (50%)
• Adam Scott (50%)
• Christian Cairo (50%)
• Yordys Valdez (50%)
• Gabriel Rodriguez (50%)
• Justin Lewis (25%)
• All others on AAA reserve list (<25%)
• Players they may take in the ML Rule 5 draft (if we remove 1 or more players from the 40)
• Ian Bedell, St. Louis, RH SP
• Chih-Jung Liu, Boston, RH RP
• Tyler Owens, Atlanta, RH RP
• Angel Bastardo, Boston, RH SP
• Justin Jarvis, Mets, RH SP
• Cole Wilcox, Tampa Bay RH RP
• C.J. Van Eyck, Toronto, RH SP 
• Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa, Texas, RH RP
• Taylor Dollard, RH SP (injured)

SUMMARY 

I think that this season we will start to see, especially in the minor league Rule 5 draft, the Guardians start to lose some of their minor league depth.  In an earth-shattering  prediction (LOL) I think the Guardians will lose more players in the ML phase than they pick up.  This, of course, is pretty obvious when their 40-man is full which hindered them from taking guys who might be vulnerable this year.  If the Guardians do pick up someone in the ML portion of the Rule 5, I see them going for a starting pitcher as this is the area where they are the weakest, depth-wise.  You can never count them out from taking a guy (like they did with Travor Stephan) who has present reliever stuff but with a starter's background.  The list of pitchers above are some whom I think the Guardians might take.  As they are picking 9th they are likely to have to a good pitcher to pick from.  

As far as who the Guardians might lose, you never know.  I would have never suspected they would have lost future middle relievers Kelly and Enright last year so any of the guys on the list above are possibilities to be drafted.  I do think you will see some surprising Guards prospects taken in the minor league portion as, frankly, they have too many prospects to protect on the Columbus reserve list.  

Some teams value future potential and they might be inclined to draft someone like Frias or Hankins.  Other teams value current ability and they might be inclined to draft Lavastida or Schneeman.  Some may value injured guys who they might be able to stash on their 60-man to begin the season so they may favor Mikolajchak and Misiaszek.

Frankly, unlike in 2021 when we protected a bunch of guys and I think Oscar Gonzalez was a lock to be drafted, I see a lot of guys who COULD be drafted this year but none look as much like a sure thing as Gonzalez was.  I think the M boys have a great chance of being drafted along with Frias, Lavastida and Schneeman.  I see Hankins making it through because, frankly, there are just too many pitchers further along them him available in this draft.

Thoughts for a Friday - Black Friday Edition

 So glad that buying on the internet is a real thing now.  Not much good came out of COVID but one small accomplishment is that if you want something you are likely to be able to get it on the internet, sometimes at better cost, better timing and with greater selection than if you go into a physical store location.

Which brings us to today's blog.  What kind of Black Friday deals can the Guardians get this holiday season?

So, fire up your online buying accounts and let's get to shopping.

• Let's pull the Band-Aid off: give Yoshinobu Yomamoto 10 yrs @24 million a year and let's be done with it.
• Since we are spending like drunken sailors, let's trade Mandardo/Brito/Cantillo/Webb for Luis Robert Jr.
• Do a Cyber Monday auction for the services of Shane Beiber for 2024.  Bidding starts at Tyler Wells + Jud Fabian and goes up from there.  The bidding will be open until 11:59 pm on Monday, Nov. 27th. quality
• Trade Myles Straw and Sandlin for Jorge Barrosa and Bryce Jarvis.
• Once we are done with the above, offer Ohtani 6 years/$290 million where he can opt out after 3 years and see where that goes.

Do it now as the good deals are generally gone very quickly between Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

3 Trades The Guardians Should Make This Off-Season

 1. Tyler Wells & Jud Fabian for Shane Beiber - Look, Beiber may be a Cy Young award winner or he may go the way of Corey Kluber when we traded him for Clase/DeShields.   One thing for sure: Bewill make over $12 million this year.   We would be replacing Beiber in the rotation with the more pedestrian Wells (and 3 years of his control) meaning we are getting a relatively cheap innings eater who still has a chance to be more.  Think of Wells like Xzavion Curry if Curry could give us 6 innings regularly as well as slide to the long man spot if needed.  Fabian, a RHH, is the wild card here and while he had troubles with Ks he hit 24 HRs between A+ and AA in his 1st full year of pro ball and is not Rule 5 eligible until after the 2025 season.   Compare his production to that of Joe Lampe and tell me which one you would rather him (BTW, in my 2022 draft analysis I said that Fabian was the better pick). Baltimore is going for it all and we are trying to win the AL Central.  When you think of it in that way you could see where Baltimore would take that gamble.

2. Luis Robert Jr. for Manzardo, Brito, Cantillo and Webb -  This is a lot to give up for Robert Jr. but every one of these guys are expendable or will not be ready to help in most, if not all, of 2024.  All 4, however, are PERFECT for a team that would be going into a deep rebuild IF they trade Robert because trading him would likely mean the trading of Cease which would assure they are rebuilding.  These 4 prospects would likely be core members of their team in 2 years, just when they should start to come out of this rebuild.  This would also take the pressure off of trading for a RFer and allow us to take a longer look at JRod/Brennan as a RF combo, although I don't know what this would mean for Laureano given this trade and #3 below.

3. Myles Straw and Nick Sandlin for Jorge Barrosa - This is more of a salary dump of Straw's contract for the Guardians but I really like Barrosa and he is blocked in Arizona.  He is a great 4th outfielder and as a switch hitter who will take a walk (80 BB/82 K in AAA in 2023), would slot in nicely hitting #2 for us with Jose sliding back to #3 and being protected by Robert Jr. and Naylor IF Barrosa can make the ML club out of spring training.  

HOF Ballots - Some Personal Thoughts

 HOF BALLOT

Well, it's that time of year.  The regular ballot for the HOF is out and there are 3 former Guardians players on it.  Let's look at their chance.  But first, an editorial

In my opinion players should be elected on their stats and how they were perceived when they played.  The latter includes things like Gold Gloves, All-star game appearances, MVP awards and other subjective things that indicate what MLB, players, front office people, writers and fans thought of that player.  Off-field stuff can only detract from the stats and perceptions.  In terms of how much non-baseball stuff should weigh on whether a player gets in the HOF, the ordering of how bad certain things are:

• Convicted of a significant crime > 
• convicted of a crime against baseball (e.g., gambling, PED use) >> 
• perceived but not proven crimes (e.g., sexual or physical abuse of others, especially women or children, PED use, gambling on baseball during a player's career) >> 
• perceived but not proven crimes of the same type AFTER a player's career.

I understand that this is not very Woke or Me Too but, to me, a player should be examined for being included in the HOF based on what happens during his career, not after it unless he is CONVICTED of a serious crime after his career.  Settling of civil suits does not constitute guilt.

I realize that this will be a very unpopular position but there is one way in which this disagreement between me and the rest of the civilized world goes away:

(1) MLB SHOULD GROW A PAIR AND MAKE ITS OWN DECISION TO KEEP PEOPLE OFF THE BALLOT, JUST LIKE THEY DID WITH JOE JACKSON AND PETE ROSE.

and

(2) THE BASEBALL WRITERS OF AMERICA (BBWA) WHO VOTE ON WHO ENTERS THE HOF SHOULD ONLY BE ALLOWED TO VOTE BASED ON PLAYER STATISTICS AND THE PERCEPTION CATEGORIES DESCRIBED ABOVE.

If MLB would just do this they would take responsibility and not put that responsibility on the writers.    In leaving people on the ballot who are questionable they are making the writers become moral gatekeepers and whenever you let a peripheral group act in this capacity you introduce incredibly unnecessary personal bias.

For the record, I think that all players proven to have used PEDs during their career should not appear on the ballot as their statistics are tainted by that use and never allowed in the HOF.  People who have been proven to have bet on baseball or accept money to throw baseball games should not be allowed in the HOF during their lifetime and should only be considered after they have passed away.  If they are elected by a veteran's committee, they should be enshrined without a ceremony.  This way they get in for their statistical exploits but don't get the honor of them, or their families, being part of a ceremony designed for people perceived to be good human beings.

All that being said, under the current system, here is what I think about the chances that the former Guardians' players on the ballot will make the HOF:

(1) Omar Vizquel -  As a player, statistically and by award perception, he deserves to get it as a player.  Unfortunately, under the current system, he will never be elected and may even fall off the ballot after this year due to the accusations he faces for alleged spousal abuse and sexual harassment of the batboy when he managed in AA.

(2) Manny Ramirez - If the PED usage charges during his career are proven, he will not and should not get in to the HOF.

(3) Bartolo Colon - Colon fits into the borderline category.  His wins and the rest of his statistics, on paper, could swing my vote to him but he is right on the border.  In most years he would have enough competition that he would likely fall short.  Maybe, in the future, a veteran's committee would find it in their hearts to enshrine him but, on this ballot, I don't think he has a chance.

There is one more player who I want to continue to mention in terms of the HOF who is not on the current ballot:

(4) Julio Franco - Franco made a series of financial decisions that likely are the only things keeping him out of the HOF.  Franco finished with 2587 hits in the majors playing mostly at SS (5 years) and 2B (4 years) with parts of other years at 1B/OF/INF.   However, likely because he was paid more and was guaranteed a roster spot, Franco played 6 years of international baseball including essentially 5 full seasons.  Even figuring 100 hits a season he would have easily reached 3000 hits and very likely would have gotten to 200 HRs, 300 SBs, 1000 BBs.  Now, Franco was never a great defender and, truth be told, has stats inflated by him playing in the majors until he was 48, but the guy belongs in the HOF.   

Franco's situation is a good one for the Guardians to remember, as well.  Had they just found a spot for him at DH in 1998-2001 they would have been able to put another statue outside of Progressive Field and had another HOFer in their team resume.

Just my opinion, especially on the social issues about election to the HOF.  Trying to be sensitive towards those issues but if MLB isn't going to take a stand, I don't know why any of the rest of us should judge these players.

Trying To Make Sense of Yesterday's Non-Tender Day Activity

 SUMMARY OF MY IMPRESSIONS OF THE OFF-SEASON MOVES SO FAR

• Trade of Cal Quantrill to Colorado for C Kody Huff - This was the worst possible scenario.  The Guardians gave way Quantrill to save his salary and got nothing in return as Huff is organizational filler of about the same ability as Joe Donovan, a current organizational filler catcher in our system.  We might as well have non-tendered Quantrill.  The only thing that DFAing Quantrill ended up doing was to allow the Guardians to have some control over where he ended up.  Although not generally a conspiracy theorist, it is hard to believe that this is the best/only return they could get for Quantrill. To 'place' Quantrill in Colorado, a place where he has the statistically worst chance of success, given their ballpark and his stuff DID minimize the FO's chances of being embarrassed if Quantrill put together a good season, something I think was highly likely.  You can ask yourself why Colorado would make this deal and the answer is simple: they need veteran starters and see that they might be able to flip Quantrill at the trade deadline for a good return, given that he has 2 years of control, meaning they would be trading dollars for prospects.  In addition, the trade of Quantrill leaves Cleveland with no clear #6 or #7 starters as all of the other starting pitchers in our system have either failed as ML starters (Curry, Gaddis), been injured (Morris, Espino) or simply are not ready to be ML starters (Cantillo, Dion, Webb, Nikhazy, Mace, Mesick, Campbell, Carver, Burns and others).

• Signing of Ramon Laureano to a 1 yr $5.1 million contract - As Laureano was supposed to get about $4.7 million in arbitration, this contract was surprising, especially since it was the only one of their arbitration cases settled yesterday.  This contract is a clear signal how much the Guardians think of Laureano and that the almost 30 year old who has been a part-time player for 4 years now, is an important part of their future.  Since the contract is way too expensive for him to be just a 4th outfielder and since RH hitting platoon OFers only play about 1/3 of the time as most SP in baseball are right-handed, this contract signals that Laureano is going to be a full-tine starter, either in CF or RF.    The issues with this is that it means
• we have a CFer  (Straw) who we would then have to find a way to jettison if Laureano is the starting CFer or
• if he starts in RF we still need to get a power-hitting centerfielder and, once again, we need to dump Straw.

        Both these scenarios likely involve Cleveland trading for or signing a FA outfielder as well as 

        finding a way to dump Straw's salary.  As the FA OF market is really thin, it is consensus that we 

        will be making a trade.  Our FO has devalued almost every prospect in the system except for 

        Manzardo,DeLauter and Brito by the way they misused them this last year, meaning that guys like 

        Freeman, Rocchio, Gonzalez, Jonathon Rodriguez, Jhonkensy Noel and others are probably worth 

        pennies on the dollar for what their actual value is.  This means we will likely pay dearly for our 

        OF acquisition if we go the trade route.  

• Trading Enyel De Los Santos for Scott Barlow - In the absolutely most puzzling move of the day for the Guardians, they traded 3 years of cheap control of a quality middle reliever (De Los Santos) for 1 year of control at an expensive price ($7.1 million estimate) of a quality, high leverage 8th inning reliever who can close in a pinch.  This trade might make sense if Cleveland had all the other pieces and was looking for that one piece to put their bullpen over the top and to provide protection if Clase struggles out of the gate as he did at the end of 2023.   But we are far from having a finished team as they still need to get a power-hitting outfielder, a DH, determine if we can get enough offense out of SS and who that SS will be.  In that light, this move was the most puzzling to me as it wasted both player (De Los Santos) and financial ($7 million for Barlow and $1.2 million for De Los Santos) resources.  Add to this that De Los Santos looked like a quality guy and clubhouse presence and this move is both puzzling and possibly disruptive to the clubhouse.  
• Leaving Alfonso Rivas on the roster and signing of Adam Oller - While this is old news it does read on part of the problem here.  No one understands claiming Rivas.  He brings nothing visible to the table and his age and even a deep dive into his stats make him look like any more than a AAAA player on a team that has two guys (Naylor and Manzardo) with the same profile and almost infinitely better skills.  As i have said before, if Rivas is on the 26 man opening day roster this franchise is cooked (moreso if Oller makes that roster, too).  Not just the team for 2024 but the franchise overall as it signals to me that they aren't going to give prospects a chance and reaffirms what I have been saying for a while now; this FO thinks they are smarter than everyone else in baseball and strives to prove that every day with questionable moves that, if they hit, make the FO look like geniuses as every one else would question such a move.  This impression first came to me with the amateur drafts over the last couple of years which used a startegy (draft in early rounds left-handed slap hitters with good plate discipline but little or no power w/o excellent speed) that was so counter to what was going on in baseball that it appeared that these guys were trying to prove all of baseball wrong and show how brilliant and ahead of their time they are.  

In summary, the moves yesterday reinforce my belief about the hubris of this FO and how that trait has a good chance to take this franchise to the dart ages.  We will be entering our first season with a rookie manager who is light years in experience behind Francona.  We have set up for a confluence of circumstances that might leave us in last place in the AL Central or in all of baseball by end of 2024.  I have not felt that way in the last 30 years of watching Cleveland baseball but I feel that way now.  All due to our FO and their waste of resources (Caminero, Jones, Benson and even Miller, Palacios, Fermin and others) with little or no return gained and their inability to see the need to change up their hitter development so that guys like JRod, Gonzalez and Noel can be developed.  In addition, the moves on Friday and this off-season have shown me that these guys still don't acknowledge that their player evaluation system is broken and needs an overhaul, either in methodology or personnel.

2021 Draft - Strategy and Success

 We are now 2+ seasons since players were drafted in the 2021 Amateur Draft.  This draft was, to me, unique because, while most teams drafted some level of balance between positions players and pitchers,  three teams, the Guardians, the Angels and the Dodgers drafted pitchers almost exclusively.  

The Dodgers, with 20 picks, drafted 18 pitchers (17 college and 1 HS, signing 16) and 2 position players (neither signed)

The Angels, with 20 picks, drafted 20 college pitchers (signing 19)

The Guardians, with 21 picks, drafted 19 pitchers (18 college and 1 HS, signing all 19) and 2 position players (signing both).

Obviously, to these teams, this was a very pitcher-heavy draft.  I can't say that I have studied position player/pitcher balance in drafts but no CLEVELAND draft that I remember was even skewed to the level that I would notice it.  

But strategy is only half the story.  It is the success of those drafts at identifying viable major leaguers that is the other half.  

While it is way too early to tell whether a draft has been successful, trends can be gleaned, focusing just on the pitchers drafted.  So let's dig in.

CLEVELAND (drafted in the 24th slot)

Pitchers already in majors: 2

Prospects in current MLB Pipeline team top 30: 2

Pitchers reaching AAA: 0

Pitchers reaching AA: 8

Pitchers reaching A+: 7

Pitchers reaching A: 1

Pitchers still in ACL: 1 (lone HS pitcher drafted)

SUMMARY:

As Cleveland doesn't normally assign their players to teams in their draft year, most of these guys have pitched only 2 years.   The fact that they are all still in the system and that all of them are still advancing at a fast pace is a huge thing that you don't often see. The college pitchers from 2o21 will not be subject to the Rule 5 draft until after the 2024 season.  If you figure that these guys will all move up at least one level at some point during the 2024 season (and a few two levels), it would mean that 8 or more of these guys would get significant AAA experience and 7 or more would get significant AA experience.  This is a great situation for the Guardians as they would have a really good indication of which pitchers are talented enough and project well enough to the majors to be protected from the Rule 5 draft. 

Both the Dodgers and the Angels have had some success with their strategies, as well.  Here are the breakdowns of their pitcher draftees in 2021 and where they are now.

LA DODGERS (drafted 30th)

Pitchers already in majors: 1

Prospects in current MLB Pipeline team top 30: 5

Pitchers reaching AAA: 0

Pitchers reaching AA: 7

Pitchers reaching A+: 5

Pitchers reaching A: 2

Pitchers still in ACL: 0

LA ANGELS (drafted 9th)

Pitchers already in majors: 2

Prospects in current MLB Pipeline team top 30: 1

Pitchers reaching AAA: 4

Pitchers reaching AA: 6

Pitchers reaching A+: 5

Pitchers reaching A: 1

Pitchers still in ACL: 1 (no longer pitching, switched to hitting)

OVERALL SUMMARY

All 3 organizations who drafted almost all pitchers in 2021 have had some success.  It appears that all of the signed players are still in professional baseball with the Dodgers and Angels having traded 2 players each during at the trade deadline to obtain veterans.  All 3 teams have players poised to be at the major league level.  It is impossible, right now, to tell who had the best draft but it is obvious from the numbers above that the strategies employed by these 3 teams in this draft have led to some success.  

It will be interesting to see, going forward how many major league pitchers the Guardians pitcher development gurus can develop out of this group.  So far all of the Guradians' draftees appear to be on the steep part of their development curve and all have shown that they are true prospects and not just organizational players.

As I have said in previous posts, with a little luck, the 2021 draft could become the best draft in Cleveland history, challenged only by the 2016 draft. Time will tell but I think, at this point, we can all agree that the strategy was successful and the success is already starting to show.

The 2024 Assessment Season Has Begun

 Some teams rebuild...for a long time.

Some teams re-tool

Some teams desperately do whatever they can, within their resources, to compete

Few, if any teams, have the resources internally that they need to sort through before they can compete.

The Guardians shocked their fans and much of the baseball world yesterday when they DFA'd Cal Quantrill.  While fans were searching for answers as to why the best case scenario was they had a trade in place that they just couldn't complete and the DFA bought them time beyond the approaching non-tender date to complete a trade.  

Then reality struck and that reality was the worst case scenario.  Chris Antonetti, in his press conference today, said that they would not pay Quantrill's expected arbitration salary as they didn't feel it was worth what their projected performance for him in 2024.  Pretty much that means that the Guardians made the determination that Quantrill was not expected to provide even 1.0 WAR value this year.   Given his 2022 season being great but much maligned by analytics people as not being sustainable and the last 6 starts when he came back from injuries in 2023 being better, these are not the words of a baseball guy thinking he is going all in on winning in 2024, especially when a look at the Guardians' farm system shows anyone that there isn't a single pitcher who will likely have a positive impact on the ML team until at least the all-star break.  Simply, they all have issues with their pitching that need to be sorted out or, minimally, refined to get them to be able to consistently get big league hitters out.

So, where does that leave us?

My opinion is that, knowing what we know now, we make the determination that we will NOT go for it in 2024.  

We should use that year as an assessment year.  We have too many prospect who have been blocked and so we don't know what we have in them, especially our MIFers and OF prospects.  They all need extended play to see what we have in them.  We need to determine who we keep and who we trade as, right now, the way they have been used, not used or misused has made them all worth MUCH less than I think they be.

Not a rebuild.  Not, for gosh sakes, a re-tool.  An asssessment year where we look at our internal options.  And here is how I would do it:

• Sign Josh Naylor to a long extension.  Very few times have I said that this is a good idea but look at the fire in his eyes, look at the improvements he made on both sides of the ball and you see a guy you want in Cleveland for the entire time that Jose Ramirez is here, and maybe one year beyond.    As this is a long-term play that can be backloaded, it should not impact our financial situation.  This extension is CRUCIAL and I repeat CRUCIAL to the long-term health of this team.
• Non-tender Ramon Laureano.  He has an expected $4.3 million arbitration salary.  No way should we keep him if we dumped Quantrill.  While his WAR might theoretically justify this salary, this team's current state cannot.  We have too many OF prospects we have to sort through this year.
• The only FAs we sign are starting pitchers who make $1.5 million or less.  We want guys who are emergency options in case our current, internal emergency options fall through.
• Set up the season so we play Rocchio, Freeman, Tena, JRod, Gonzo and even, after the all-star break, Noel and, if he is ready, DeLauter.
• Start the season with Manzardo as our DH.  Look, I was against this until yesterday but since we went for assessment instead of competing, it is worth a look at him in light of him being a possible ROY player, even though I think that is a long shot, at best.
• Keep James Karinchak.  Most of the impetus to get rid of him is frustration that he can't take that next step and, to an extent, is even regressing somewhat.  Still, 165 IP, 98 H, 253 Ks look above average to me and that is corroborated by hie ERA+ numbers each season.  At $1.9 million estimated arbitration salary he is a bargain and worth another year to see if he finally puts ALL of it together, or if he will just continue to regress.
• Remove Alfonso Rivas from the roster.  As I have said on Twitter, if Rivas is on this roster next spring this FO has their heads up their butts and will seal the deal that they have no idea what they are doing and this franchise is screwed.  You have so many internal options to sort through you don't need ultimate AAAA players like Rivas, Oller and other minor league signees (like Ben Gamel) taking playing time from these guys.  
• Develop Cody Morris, Xzavion Curry and Hunter Gaddis as starting pitchers only.  In a normal season you want to give the team flexibilty to use these guys as relievers and I truly believe their future is better in the bullpen than as starters.  But, right now, in an assessment year, we have to determine is they are truly never going to be starters in the majors.
• Start the season with Myles Straw as our CFer.  I know everyone hates on Straw right now but you have to give him at least 2 months to see if what they told him at the end of the season has lit a fire under him or if he is just not good enough to play CF in the majors, offesnively that is.  I mean, his bunting went from non-existent to passable this year.  Maybe he now has the message that his hitting needs to get way better, too.  

A rebuild means you get rid of most of your veterans.  Besides Laureano, we don't have any veterans besides Beiber and Bethancourt, both of whom are needed now.  So we aren't rebuilding.

A re-tool means that you are going to spend financial or trade capital to bring in veterans to shore up areas you are weak in.  However, you have to have all your other pieces in place and be solid.  Right now we are missing CF, RF and are unsure about SS, DH and in the bullpen. Both of the above paths are not minimalistic and both require having a solid foundation to build upon.  You can't go cheap, signing lifer AAAA players like Gamel, Rivas and Oller who you hope will suddenly, in their late 20s or 30s, become above-average starters.  You have to spend big bucks to sign FAs (something that the DFA of Quantrill SHOULD signal is not happening) or trade lots of prospect capital to find really good veterans to make the re-tool happen.  Given that we have screwed the pooch by not using, misusing or improperly using our ML-ready prospects, they won't have enough value to trade and, even if we had enough capital, we do not have a complete infrastructure that would allow us to assume that re-tooling additions will make us good enough to compete.

So we are left with an assessment year.  We have oodles of prospects to sort out and positions to lock down.  We need to limit our holes to as few as possible so we can apply resources next winter to filling those FEW holes.   We are not there yet.  We need to assess this year.

Let the assessment year begin.  We should know what the first steps are.  That is, the first two bullet points above.  Let's get those done and go from there.  

The future can be bright if we just follow this plan and don't try to be cute and think we know more than the rest of baseball on how to build a champion on a small budget.  

Let the assessment year begin.

Bibee ROY Fallout and Roster Protection Day

Bibee

Good fans, some among the very knowledgeable, getting on Twitter yesterday and then saying "Wait, we don't get a draft pick and Bibee gets a full year of service time if he finishes 1st or 2nd in the ROY voting?"  Like Zach Meisel informs the world.  Problem is I have been saying this for 2 months.  Knowledgeable fans should have known this.  Wouldn't have changed anything but this is what makes guys like Meisel look like experts...when they just state the obvious because no one else is paying attention.

And to clarify some things::

• the Guardians were not trying to be cheap by not rostering Bibee at the beginning of 2023.  We had 5 solid starters and he didn't really have to be rostered until after 2024.  So why start his option clock by rostering him if he wasn't going to stick?
• This 'revelation' about the PPI is no reason to roster Manzardo next opening day.  The odds of him winning the ROY are slim with the competition he has.  At least 3 of the top 10 prospects in baseball could be on AL opening day rosters and if a guy like Yamamoto is in the AL, while he won't be eligible for PPI, he could throw a monkey wrench into the works by being named ROY, screwing every other team who has a qualified ROY candidate.
• Simply, as I have been saying for two months now, this rule needs to be changed.

Rule 5 Protection Day

This day used to scare the crap out of me as I feared we would not protect enough guys.  The last two years have made more comfortable the Guardians have this under control.  Now I am scared that the Guardians will do something stupid (see Tobias Myers, see Juan Brito for Nolan Jones) on this day.  Let's look at some stupid things they might do, given that the 40 man is completely filled:

• DFA or trade Karinchak to clear a roster spot.  James is the whipping boy for fans' frustrations.  Still, look at his stats.  He is not someone you DFA and get, essentially, nothing for him or trade him for peanuts because MLB GMs know he is in the dog house in Cleveland.
• Trade for yet another guy who will not be rostered by one of their competitors.  This includes trading Karinchak
• DFA or trade for little value prospects on the 40 like Noel, Gonzalez, Jonathon Rodriguez to clear roster space for prospect additions while leaving flotsam like Rivas, Kelly and Laureano on the roster
• Make a multiplayer trade where we give up more than we get driven by the need to clear roster space.

Look, the guys we need to protect are Espino, Hankins and Frias.  These are the guys with huge upsides who could be in the majors by opening day 2025.  Relievers like Cade Smith, Misiaszek and Mikolajchake have upsides only as fungible middle relievers in the majors, just like Kelly and Enright last year.  You simply don't protect them when guys like De Los Santos pop up all the time.  The issue is that we never sign any of those guys choosing, isntead, to sign bad MLB free agents in the beginning of March.

So what SHOULD happen today is that we DFA or trade Kelly, Rivas and Laureano and roster Espino, Hankins and Frias.  Then we can approach the off-season by using our prospects on the 40 to get veteran players in here...assuming you think the Manzardo trade signals that our FO have gotten their heads out of their butts and are now making good trades for a change.

If they avoid doing either of those things

Thoughts for the Monday: Changing of the Guard, Decisions Week, ROY Vote Implications, AFL Aftermath, Help in the Outfield, Potpourri

Back in the swing for a Monday morning after a weekend of fun. 

Stephan Vogt

In all the excitement about our new manager here are some things people should not forget:

• The Guardians could not get the experienced manager of the type they wanted.
• They had their pick of guys with no ML managerial experience and picked who they wanted.  It was their plan to begin with and they followed through.
• It is very likely that he will lose some games for us from inexperience.  He is going to have to grow into the position.  Francona did it so effortlessly although he said how much effort it really took.  Fans need to prepare for this being a bumpy road and to give the guy a chance to grow into the job.  Realize that with a rookie manager like Vogt at the helm in the last 11 years we might had only had 4 winning seasons out of 11 instead of 9.  That stark reality it what we may face at the beginning of his tenure.  Maybe not but it is possible, to be sure.
• Vogt will need strong coaches to help him.  He has to know where to find them and he has to embrace not just bringing in his buddies or people he will be comfortable with.  That is the knee jerk situation, not bringing in the best but, rather, bringing in people you know.  It looks like he will have to find
• Third base/infield coach
• Bullpen coach
• Bench coach
• Hitting coach (my bias is showing through here.
• There are areas that he can be a positive influence right away
• He can bring the energy - Francona was beat up both mentally and physically.  
• He can more fully embrace analytics.  Not saying he will or that he fully knows how to use them but at least he is young enough to.
• He, along with his next replay coordinator, can improve over the last couple of years.

Steven Voght - Old Cronies Edition

So far the Guardians have made 3 off-season acquisitions

• Picked up Christian Bethancourt on waivers
• Signed Adam Oller to a minor league contract
• Picked up Alfonso Rivas on waivers

You could speculate that Bethancourt and Oller were pickups suggested or approved by Vogt as he had overap with each of them.  It is harder to find the direct connection between Rivas and Vogt, especially when Rivas was picked up before Vogt was officially offered the job.  

Still, it would be great if Vogt could have a positve impact on obtaining guys who really made a difference.  While Bethancourt is, on paper, a good pickup (but we thought the same thing about Zunino, right?) he was DFA'd by Tampa Bay when it wasn't necessary, likely because they felt that his arbitration salary was not equal to his value.  Oller being signed now if ominous because you are generally not signing free agents to minor league contracts this early unless the guy is someone who is likely to pitch on your team next year (guys with lifetime 10+ ERAs don't fall in that category).

So, Steven, use your former relationships to help this team build its roster next year and to trade for appropriate ML players and prospects.   So far the results have been OK to poor.  We are the Guardians with a questionable FO.  We need better than that.

Rookie of the Year Vote Implications

This will be a short section.  The truth about this year is:

• The Guardians will receive nothing if Tanner Bibee wins ROY this week.  He won't as that award will go to Gunnar Henderson.  The reason is that the Guardians did not bring him up in time to qualify for the Prospect Promotion Incentive.  He needed to be on the the roster by April 14th.  He wasn't added to the roster until April 28th.  I don't believe even if he was on the roster by the 14th if we would have qualified for the PPI as he wasn't ranked in the top 100 prospects.
• As I have previously posted, if, as expected, he finishes 2nd in the voting then Bibee will earn a full year of service time meaning, if he is not demoted to the minors any time in the future.  This is a negative for the Guardians as it means he would be a FA one year earlier than if he finished 3rd or lower in the voting.  

So, for the Guardians, the only good outcome this week is for Bibee to finish 3rd.  For Bibee, finishing 1st or 2nd helps him immensely.

This is one thing about the PPI that I hate.  Why does a player have to be in the top 100 to qualify for the PPI?  Bibee would have been eliminated before he even through a pitch even if he had been on the opening day roster.  For lower rated prospects there is the stick (loss of one year of control) and no carrot (draft choice compensation).  That is totally unfair to small market teams who likely will have better prospects due to worse records, especially if their strength is prospect development.  

So, look for Bibee to finish 2nd and for the Guardians to be screwed by the new PPI system.

Decisions Week

On Wednesday (roster freeze ahead of Rule 5 draft) and Friday (non-tender of ML players, especially arbitration-eligible players) decisions will have to be made.  

These decisions can be short-sighted (DFAing guys like Kyle Nelson to clear a roster spot) or long-term (adding all those prospects to the 40-man in 2021).  BTW, both of these decisions were in the same 2021 roster freeze.

So I am approaching these two dates with trepidation for the following reasons:

• We have a currently full 40 man roster
• We have guys (Kelly, Rivas) who should be expendable but I am not sure that the FO considers them that way
• We have guys like Gaddis who should be solid end of your 40-man roster guys but may be considered fungible and, therefore, given away for nothing.  Not that I think that highly of Gaddis' ability to be a ML pitcher, but he is a cheap depth guy who we have experience with so, as a AAA option as a reliever or starter, he is perfect for a small market team's end of the 40-man roster..
• We have guys like Gonzalez and Noel who, like Nolan Jones last year, might be undervalued by our FO and given away for less than what they are worth with the same disastrous consequences as what happened with Jones this year.
• We have Laureano who should be DFA'd as he is overpriced and Karinchak who, under no circumstances, be DFA'd or traded for little value to avoid going to arbitration with him.  The former is expendable while the latter is likely an important part of our bullpen who cannot be replaced for the cost of his arbitration settlement.
• We have multiple prospects who need to be rostered, starting with Daniel Espino, Ethan Hankins, Dayan Frias and others.  However, each of these prospects has significant warts that I could see the FO not protecting ANY of them or maybe just protecting Espino due to his prospect status while gambling that all the other guys will not be LOST FOR GOOD in the ML Rule 5 draft system.

After the roster freezes of 2021 and 2022 I thought I had a good feeling about how the FO handles these things but now I am really worried as there is no way Kelly or Rivas should be on the roster after Wednesday and, frankly, we have so many OF prospects with higher upsides than Laureano I can't see him being here past Wednesday as I think we need his roster spot.   

And this is just the beginning.  You still have the roster changes that occur after the Rule 5 where guys like Benson are given away for nothing just to clear roster spots for FA signings or trades where we obtain ML players for non-rostered prospects.

AFL Aftermath

Team Finish

Second only to having the best spring training record in baseball for being a meaningless team accomplishment is winning the AFL championship.  Look, all these guys, I am sure, have been trained that winning (in terms of team over individual) is the goal.  It builds selflessness and teamwork over me-first selfishness.  

I get that.

Still, you put a bunch of guys from different organizations for a month and celebrate because your all-star team beat someone else's.  Just really not important...as written by a guy whose team lost in the finals, LOL.

But let's look at the individual performances, including the playoffs.

Webb 

Completed his AFL season going 4 scoreless innings on Tuesday.  He looked poised and got it done without striking out everybody.  He gave up two hits (one line drive, one seeing eye ground ball) and walked 3 (all on 3-2 counts).  He looks like a keeper and might even make it the majors by the beginning of 2025.

Manzardo and DeLauter

The playoffs were cool for each of them and built on their AFL regular season stats but truth be told, they both need more seasoning before theyare ready to be important contributors in the majors.  Whether that is 2 months or 2 years is not know yet.  Still, they both look like bona fide major leaguers in the future.  Whether they will just be solid regulars or more is to be seen.  But I think we have turned the page on them being Joe Charboneau-type flash-in-the-pans, IMHO.

Hanner, Carver, Cairo, Sabrowski

As I said two weeks ago, these guys have played well enough to be guaranteed a spot in the Guardians farm system next year.  None of them really enhanced their status to be considered for a 40-man roster spot but, still, they have shown that there might be something there, especially with Carver and Hanner.  Truth be told, I wouldn't put Hanner, Cairo or Sabrowski on the Columbus Reserve list (Carver isn't Rule 5-eligible yet), so each of those 3 might be lost in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft.  I just see too many other prospects, inlcuding A ball prospects like Antunez, who aren't good enough to be rostered yet but who you want ont he Columbus reserve list so they would have to be selected in the ML Rule 5 where they have to be kept on the ML roster next season.  If they are NOT on the Columbus reserve list they can be selected in the minor league Rule 5 (like Hanner was last year), and not have to be returned if drafted in that phase.

Help in the Outfield

At the moment, the Guardians' X, blog and website gurus are proposing all kinds of FA signings and trades to help us gett more OF production in the majors.  The issues I see are

• Guys are being suggested who are only short term (1-2 year) rentals
• Guys are being suggested are not positional fits (mostly LFers (Arozerena, for example) or sub-par (defensively) RFers or, and this is the worst, firstbaseman or DHs who are trying to be sold as outfielders (Hoskins, Soler)
• Most people are not addressing replacing Straw EXCEPT by moving 2-time Gold Glover Steven Kwan from LF to CF, likely really making the whole outfield defense worse.

The names that make the most sense to me are:

• Fernando Tatis, Jr.  The problems with him are his huge contract, his maturity issues and the fact that his stature is superhero-like in San Diego.  And that doesn't even include the cost of acquiring him.
• Luis Robert Jr.  The main problem with him is would the White Sox trade him and, if so, would they trade him in the division?  

Both these guys instantly make our offense better while not hurting our defense and Robert replaces Straw, immediately making the need for a veteran RF power hitter less necessary, allowing us to maybe give a LH/RH platoon with Brennan and one of Gonzo/JRod/Noel.

The next tier would be controllable guys who have ML or significant AAA experience in RF, like Jordan Walker.

I think the key here is do not try to fit a square peg in a round hole.  If you do you will just be creating one or, in the worst case, multiple problems just to try to address our RF problem.

I don't know what the answer is but I, like many others, would like they to get Robert or Tatis and would be OK with a guy like Walker (albeit not for a HUGE price).  Many of the other guys are analytics moves and, after last year (or even the last 3 years), I don't trust the Guardians to spend money or trade assets on veterans.  

Potpourri

• Not sure I like the Albernaz signing.  Words spoken so far make it sound like he will be a FO spy which might undermine Vogt's ability or mean the FO is hedging their bets that Vogt can be more than a game/locker room manager.  And, even at that, can he handle the complex issues that come with dealing with drama like what happened to Francona after the deadline purge.  On the plus side, maybe having Albernaz in this job will obviate the need for brining in overvalued veterans players who cost us too much in prospects/money.
• Reading about Jose Tena and seeing how he is doing in winter ball I like him more and more.  He seems, unlike Rocchio, Freeman, Martinez or Arias, to be on the steep portion of his learning curve.  To me, however, that means that he should be our primary trading chip if we have to give up a MIF prospect in a trade this winter.   The other 4 really have been devalued by how they were used in 2023.  Trading your prospects when they are at their highest value (which Tena is right now) is better than trading prospects when they are devalued.  Besides, in the end, I don't see Tena having upside greater than the other 4, assuming all 5 were given a long-term chance by a rebuilding franchise.

Thoughts For A Saturday

 1. Jonathon Rodriguez Rostering

Thank you!  The only burning question is why can't the Guardians develop power hitters to shore up their weaknesses (generally high K rates, not using the whole field) while enhancing their strengths.  Reyes, Bradley and now, Gonzalez, Noel and Rodriguez, not to mention Jones, Benson, Yandy Diaz, Yainer Diaz, the list goes on.  The organization needs to do better as, because of their lack of development of power hitters, they will now be trading prospects this winter or paying a lot in free agency to get what they need.

2. Alfonso Rivas...WTF?

So, the first move of the off-season was to pick up Rivas on waivers.  The issue with this guy are:

• He was waived by the Pirates, which generally means he is not a very good player, especially when waived at this time of the year.  
• He is 27 years old and has never had success in the majors
• He hits LF and is primarily a first baseman
• As he is a waiver claim, he cost us $50,000
• We need roster space to add prospects by Nov. 15th to protect them from the Rule 5 draft.
• This was their first move of the off-season, essentially setting the tone for their off-season making this a really bad PR move
• No one, and I repeat, NO ONE, understands this move and essentially EVERY serious Cleveland baseball fan is rolling their eyes at this acquisition and I can tell you that essentially NONE of those fans even realized that the waiver claim cost us $50,000.  

This is not a good first move of the off-season.  It smacks as if someone in the organization in power wanted this guy.  It has been suggested that maybe the new manager has been identified and he said he wanted this guy.  If so, you really have to question that managerial choice.  Rivas is the kind of AAAA player who gets a minor league deal at the beginning of March as an organizational filler.

3. Lack of Catching Prospects in the Organization

A recent listing of the players in the Guardians' organization who are Rule 5-eligible showed included 11 catchers.  Only one of those, Bryan Lavastida, is as this point even a borderline prospect.  A futher look through the farm system shows that the only catching prospects are international signings who were at Lynchburg, ACL and DSL teams.  

There is literally a lack of catching prospects in this organization and much of that comes from not prioritizing catching prospects in the draft.  We have umpteen MIF prospects and umpteen OF prospects and umpteen pitching prospects but no catching prospects.

Note that in my mock draft for 2022 I prioritized college catchers and would have selected Daniel Susac over Chase DeLauter and Dominic Keegan over Joe Lampe.   In each case we would have gotten a quality prospect.

Susac, known as an excellent defender, hit .300 between A+ and AA this year with an OPS of .793

Keegan, more of an offensive catcher, profiles a lot like David Fry as he has a background as a position player.  He played overage in A ball and at league-average age in A+ ball this year and had on OPS of .852.  He is currently tearing up the Arizona Fall League with an OPS of 1.079 which ranks 5th in the league.  Note that unlike 2023 overdraft Cooper Ingle, Keegan was actually a very highly rated prospect at draft time and drafting him in the 3rd round would have been at the time and continues to appear to be really good value at that slot, not just as a catcher but as an excellent available and signable player in the draft at that point.

In hindsight if they had drafted Susac and Keegan and kept Nolan Jones, this organization would be in better shape, catching-wise and actually OF-wise then it is now.

4. AFL Homerun Derby and All-Star Game

Tonight is the HR Derby in the AFL and tomorrow is the annual AFL all-star game.  It is good that the Guardians have 3 of their representatves (Manzardo, DeLauter and Webb).  None of them are having great statistical AFL seasons.  Each has had their moments.  Webb leads the AFL in strikeouts.  Manzardo has had essentially 5 tape measure HRs and DeLauter is tied for the lead league in RBIs and has almost as many XBH as he has Ks and a 13/9 BB/K ratio.  Stats in the desert don't mean a lot but these are stats that given some hope for the future that each of these guys could be a bright piece of the Guardians' feature for the next 6-7 years.

5. More AFL

Christian Cario, Bradley Hanner, Ross Carver and Eric Sabrowski are all putting in the work in the AFL although they are not really priority prospects.  They have given themselves a chance to have priority positions in the Guardians' minor leagues next year.  

Ryan Webb - A Cautionary Tale

 All us prospect geeks are pumped over Webb's performance in the AFl this year.  He leads the league in strikeouts and has had two outings where he gave up only 1 hit in 4.1 innings.  In his outing yesterday he threw 4 shutout, hitless innings before he gave up an infield hit and a walk in the 5th, both runners being allowed to score by the pitcher who replaced him.  

My guess is that he has one more start this fall and, given that, let's look at how his strikeout totals compare with past participants in the AFL looking back to 2005.

49 - Tommy Hansen - 2008

40 - Miguel De Los Santos - 2011

39 - Glenn Perkins - 2005

38 - Phil Hughes - 2008

36 - Forrest Whitley - 2018

36 - Scott Mathieson - 2005

35 - Jerad Weaver - 2005

34 - Connor Thomas - 2022

33 - Boone Whiting -2012

33 - Sean Manea - 2015

33 - Wilie Eyres - 2008

33 - Alex Hinshaw - 2008

33 - Austin Gomber - 2016

33 - Ryan Webb - 2023

The cautionary tale here is that high strikeout totals in the AFL have very little to do with future success.  Just look at Connor Thomas from St. Louis, last year's K leader in the AFL.  He also had only 5 walks.  On the strength of his pedigree (5th round college pick) and his AFL showing he started the year as the Cardinals 19th ranked prospect.  He has now fallen out of their top 30 entirely after having a mediocre year in his 3rd season in AAA.   His stuff seems to be similar to that of Webb and his draft pedigree was similar, as well.  In addition you could look at Evan Reifert who had 25 Ks in the 2022 AFL season in 11.2 innings with only 4 BB but, like Thomas, is not one of the top 30 prospects in his organization in 2023.   Looking at the rest of list some of the guys became good ML pitchers and others did not.   Time will tell with Webb but the Guardians are good at developing pitchers and if his 91-92 FB average could get bumped up to 93 mph touching 94, I think we could be looking at the next Aaron Civale.

Wednesday Odds and Ends

1. The 2022 Draft A Year Later

Everyone should know by now that I think the 2022 draft stunk and that the Guardians left the best talent on the board with almost all of the picks they made in the firs 5 rounds, at least.  Here is a link      ( http://ciperspective.blogspot.com/2022/07/day-2-summary-and-overall-thoughts-of.html ) to the July 18, 2022 post I made with the my first 5 picks in that draft compared to what the Guardians did:  A year later after the first full season for each of those draft picks here is a side-by-side comparison of those selections.

Round 1:

Guardians: Chase DeLauter (currently  #85 prospect in all of baseball)

My mock draft: Daniel Susac (currently the #4 prospect in the Oakland As system)

Round 1C

Guardians: Justin Campbell (currently the #23 prospect in Cleveland's system; out with an injury all year)

My mock draft: Cayden Wallace (currently the #2 prospect in the Royals system)

Round 2

Guardians: Parker Messick (currently the #17 prospect in the Guardians system)

My mock draft: Carson Whisenhut (#70 overall prospect in baseball, #3 in Giants system)

Round 3

Guardians: Joe Lampe (not listed in the Guardians top 30 prospects, spent all year in A+ ball)

My mock draft: Dominic Keegan (#9 prospect for Tampa Bay.  Currently hitting .410 with an OPS of 1.200 in the AFL playing for the same team as Manzardo and DeLauter are playing for).  And Keegan is a catcher.

Round 4

Guardians: Nate Furman (not listed in Guardians top 30 prospects, spent most of the year in A ball)

My mock draft: Luke Gold (currently #27 prospect for Detroit, split time between A and A+)

Round 5

Guardians: Guy Lipscomb (not listed in Guardians top 30 prospects, spent all year in A ball)

My mock draft: Noah Dean (not listed in Boston's top 30 prospects, hurt most of the year)

This is not to point out how I am better than the Guardians.  It is only to point out what I considered our needs were: power hitters, top catching prospects, pitching prospects compared to what the Guardians thought our needs were: LH hitting slap hitters with good batting eyes and pitchability college pitchers.  My draft selections focused on what I thought our needs were at the same time not sacrificing quality.  Cleveland's picks focused on what they thought was important while sacrificing quality on our 2nd through 5th round picks, at least, and the jury is still out on DeLauter and on Campbell due to injury.

We could have done so much better in the 2022 draft and we will be paying for the clear mistakes we made in these two drafts for the next 5-10 years.

2. The Managerial Search Continues with a Caution from Me

I don't believe Craig Counsell will end up as Cleveland's manager.

I think the Guardians were just interviewing Counsell and he accepted the interview just as due diligence.

I also think the Cleveland interview and offer will just serve to drive up the value of Counsell's eventual salary.

His choices are the best available managerial position in baseball (Houston), his hometown team (Milwaukee), an opportunity where the owner spends like crazy to have a winner (NYM) and Cleveland.  

Counsell isn't coming here and the longer we wait and string along our #2 choice the more likely we lose that guy to another club or risk alienating him coming in the door.

This is a game of musical chairs and injecting Counsell into this mix just muddied the waters considerably.

That being said, I don't trust that the Guardians will pick the right guy.  Francona fell into their laps before but the experienced managers who would fit here (Lovullo, Cash and Counsell) aren't coming.  So now, for the first time in 11 years, they have to actually take a chance on a guy that nobody knows.  Will they do a good job?  Just look at their player decisions over the past 3+ years and tell me what you think their odds are of doing a good job hiring the right manager.

3. Jonathon Rodriguez Being Rostered Instead of Lost to MiLB Free Agency

Tick.  Tick.  Tick.

4. Ryan Webb

I am pretty sure if he starts on schedule that his next start (Nov. 2nd) will be live streamed by MLB on MLB.com.  This is must see TV if you are a Guardians' prospect geek.

5. Off-season Acquistions the Guardians Need to Make

guys who are on the 40 man roster or would have to be added as they would be Rule 5 eligible are underlined

a. Luis Robert Jr. for Kyle Manzardo, Juan Brito, Joey Cantillo and Ryan Webb

b. Jordan Walker, Tyler O'Neill, Gorden Graceffo and Ivan Herrera for Bieber, Quantrill, Sandlin, Lavastida and Straw.

c. Trade Jose Tena to Arizona for Jorge Barrosa and Brycen Jarvis

d. Sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto to a 10 yr, $200 million deal

e. Sign Reynaldo Lopez to a 3 yr, $13 million deal

f. Sign Francisco Mejia to a minor league deal

g. Sign Carlos Carrasco to a minor league deal

h. DFA Laureano and Michael Kelly

i. Add to the roster Jonathon Rodriguez, Ethan Hankins, Daniel Espino 

These moves would immediately add one more player to our 40 man roster than we would lose, essentially making all of them a break even.  This is my ideal off-season although Rodriguez might cost us a draft pick.  The only duplicates we would still have on the roster at that point would be the following:

Starting Pitcher Options (8): Allen, Bibee, Williams, McKenzie, Yamamoto, Graceffo, Carrasco, Gaddis

Outfield Options (10): Kwan, Roberts Jr, Brennan, Walker, O'Neill, Barrosa, Valera, Gonzalez, JRod, Noel

MIF options (5): Gimenez, Freeman, Arias, Martinez, Rocchio

Catching Options (4): Bo Naylor, Herrera, Fry, Mejia

Bullpen Options (14): Clase, Curry, De Los Santos, Hentges, Herrin, Karinchak, Lopez, Morgan, Morris, Stephan, Cade Smith, Jarvis, Hunter Gaddis

So we would have some other trade chips like Brennan, Morgan, Karinchak, Gonzalez, Valera, JRod, Noel and one of Gimenez/Freeman/Arias/Martinez/Rocchio if we need to make a July trade.

Our statting lineup would look something like this:

1. Kwan LF

2. Ramirez 3B

3. Robert CF

4. Josh Naylor 1B

5. O'Neill DH

6. Gimenez 2B

7. Walker RF

8. Bo Naylor C

9. Rocchio or Arias SS (I prefer Rocchio with this lineup setup as he represents a 2nd leadoff man)

The Clock Is Ticking on Jonathon Rodriguez

 Unless there is something that I don't understand, one day after the World Series ends Jonathon Rodriguez becomes a 6 year minor league free agent.  Drafted in 2017 and counting the 2020 season when minor leaguers did not play, Rodriguez has played for the Guardians for 6+ years even though he is only 23 years old (he will turn 24 this week).  

With the World Series now 3-1 in favor of Texas the whole thing could be over on Wednesday night, meaning JRod could be a free agent as early as this Thursday.  

However, for 5 days he can only negotiate with the team he played for this year, so there is that window.

Now, like with Oscar Gonzalez in the winter of 2021-22, the Guardians could sign Rodriguez to a minor league deal during that 5 day period.  They could even sign him after that but risk that he could get an offer from another team to be on their 40-man roster.  

So the Guardians are on the clock.  The game they played with Gonzalez would not have worked if there had been a Rule 5 draft in the winter of 2021.  There will be one this winter so Rodriguez would likely be snapped up in that draft.

So the Guardians are on the clock.  As I see it they have 3 paths:

• They put JRod on the 40 man roster before the end of the WS
• They sign him to a minor league deal and add him to the roster before the roster freeze on Nov. 15th.
• They sign him to a minor league deal but don't add him to the 40 man and hope he makes it through the Rule 5
• They trade him to another team to avoid having to roster him.
• They simply let him become a 6 year free agent and he signs with another team.

The only course that makes sense for me is putting him on the 40-man roster right now.

We are talking about an organizational all-star here, a guy who has is young and at AAA with great power, a great arm and developing plate discipline.  Plus he hits right handed and can play RF.  

He is a legitimate prospect who is probably still underrated by ranking   He is currently rated 24th in our system my MLB Pipeline.  

There is room on the 40-man roster once guys hit free agency after the WS.  Rostering him is a no-brainer but we have seen what our no brain FO has done in the last few years with Junior Caminero, Nolan Jones, Will Benson and others, giving them away for nothing.  Even Oscar Gonzalez could have been lost before his breakout season in 2022 because the Guardians did not roster him.  The only thing that saved him was that there wasn't a Rule 5 draft in 2021.  

So, c'mon Guardians.  Roster this kid.  It is the only choice that makes sense in an organization that has to build from within given its budget.  What's it going to be?  Another stupid move or, like the rostering of prospects in the off-season of 2021, do the right thing.