Thursday, November 30, 2023

Decision Month Coming Up - Volume 3 - Trades and Putting Together A Roster

 December could be a big month for the Guardians in terms of trades and molding our roster for next year.

Or it could be a snoozefest.

Time will tell how aggressive the Guardians are but here are my thoughts:

NEEDS
  • RFer or CFer with power; 
  • starting pitcher depth (more if we trade more starting pitching)
TRADE CHIPS
  • MIFers: Martinez, Tena, Arias, Brito
  • OFers: Straw, Laureano, Gonzalez, Brennan
  • Pitchers: Beiber, Cantillo, Webb, Dion, Karinchak, Morgan, Gaddis, Herrin, Morris, Sandlin, Cade Smith, 
  • Corner IFers: Manzardo
  • Deeper Prospects: Chourio, Velazquez, Fox, Halpin, Messick, Genao, Tolentino
UNTOUCHABLES
  • Ramirez
  • Josh Naylor
  • Bo Naylor
  • Bibee
  • Williams
  • Allen
  • Clase
  • Stephan
  • Barlow
  • Curry
  • Espino
  • Hentges
  • McKenzie
  • Valera
  • Freeman
  • Rocchio
  • Jonathon Rodriguez
  • DeLauter
  • Fry
  • Bethancourt
  • Noel
Reasoning: Some of the guys on the untouchable list are, indeed, untouchable.  But guys like Freeman, Valera, Espino, Rocchio, JRod, DeLauter, Noel are undervalued right now due to injury or depression of their value by them not getting a fair chance to show how valuable they can be are untouchable because you could only get PRESENT equal value for them which way underestimates their true value.   The simple truth is that you would sell low if you traded guys like this now.  

Other guys on the trade chip list like Bieber (compared to his zero value after the all-star break before his last few starts), Arias, Brito and Manzardo are at the zenith of their value (so far) and so you wouldn't be selling low on them.  Others are just duplicates of what we have.  

TRADE TARGETS

I started to fill out this section with Arozerana, Santander, Robert Jr., Cease, etc. but that is for the deep thinkers in the FO to consider what the best trade they can make for these guys or other trade targets who meet our needs is. 

As I have said repeatedly in the past couple of months, you can't trade pitching for OF hitting and end up with a hole n your rotation.  That is simply just shuffling deck chairs. 

What I am also saying is whatever package you propose, you need to consider the present value of the prospects you are considering trading and see if it matches up with recent projections for their value.  For example, Tyler Freeman was the #1 prospect in a deep Cleveland farm system at the beginning of 2022 and people are treating him now like a utility guy who you can just throw into a trade.  That is just not who he is as 2022 was injury-filled and in 2023 he just sat on the bench.   No way you trade Freeman if you are assigning him utility infielder value. 




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